NIAS Area Studies
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Ukraine and the US: The six billion aid
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
On 11 May, the US House of Representatives approved a bill worth USD 40 billion of aid to Ukraine. The current bill was seven billion more than what US president Joe Biden had proposed to Congress on 29 April. The Congress has been expediting its approvals for aid to Ukraine, helping Kyiv to defend itself from Moscow. The US democratic representative Rosa DeLauro said: “This bill will protect democracy, limit Russian aggression, and strengthen our own national security, while, most importantly, supporting Ukraine.”
The US aid: A brief note
The latest aid package includes USD six billion for security assistance, including training, equipment, weapons and military support. USD 8.7 billion to replenish stocks of equipment depleted in Ukraine and USD 3.9 billion for the European command operations. The new bill also increases the budget of the presidential drawdown authority to USD 11 billion, which allows the US president to transfer aid in an emergency without the need for it to be approved by Congress.
Additionally, USD four billion had been allocated in foreign military financing, which is used to support Ukraine and other countries. A package of USD 3.5 billion worth of military equipment includes anti-aircraft Stinger systems, anti-tank Javelin missiles, howitzers and critical ammunition. The aid also includes USD five billion in humanitarian assistance to address food insecurity and USD nine million for monetary fund support to Ukraine.
What does the aid mean?
First, the war centric package vis-à-vis domestic focus. The Ukraine package has sidelined the House’s interests and the US budget allocations from domestic issues. Inside the US, the Democrats and the Republicans have not agreed on the extension of tax credit and a pre-pandemic response package. However, they have been approving the packages to Ukraine, with either side pushing for increased military assistance or humanitarian aid.
Second, the dominant military aid. The latest bill has more than half of the aid allocated for military assistance. This can be seen as the US playing a more crucial role in supporting Ukraine militarily to defend itself against Russia. However, the sheer volume of assistance could escalate the conflict and increase US overseas expenditures.
Third, long-lasting ramifications. Ukraine will significantly benefit from the proposed bill as Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv had lost about USD 600 billion due to the war. However, with an increase in US assistance to Ukraine, Washington’s investments are likely to have outcomes similar to its prolonged war in the Middle East.
References
Patricia Zengerle, “US House passes $40 bln bill to bolster Ukraine against Russian invasion,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
Catie Edmondson and Emily Cochrane, “House Passes $40 Billion More in Ukraine Aid, With Few Questions Asked,” The New York Times, 10 May 2022
Hungary: EU’s Budapest challenge on the Russian oil ban
By Padmashree Anandhan
Recent developments
On 05 May, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban applied brakes on the EU proposal for an oil embargo on Russia. He said that the decision would affect Hungary as its economy is dependent on Russian energy imports by more than 50 per cent. Later, on 06 May, he said that the sanctions on the energy would have an effect equal to a “nuclear bomb,” on Hungary and rejected the EU’s proposal.
On 09 May, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met Orban to discuss Hungary’s objection to the EU’s oil ban. Post the discussion she said: “This evening’s discussion with PM Viktor Orban was helpful to clarify issues related to sanctions and energy security.”
Issues in the background
First, the EU and Hungary equations. The bilateral relations have never been static; especially under Orban, there have been issues at the domestic, regional, and international level which has dented the bilateral relations. At the domestic level, the government's misuse of the EU funds, democratic backsliding, manipulation of media, undermining courts, and provisions against LGBT have caused a rift. At the regional level, neighbouring Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia tagging along with Hungary in misuse of the EU funds, and democratic backsliding, had also challenged the EU’s operations. At the international level, Hungary’s disagreement with the EU’s sanctions on China during the crackdown on Hong Kong also created a similar situation where the EU was not able to step forward to support Hong Kong because of Hungary. Orban, keeping the economic relations with China on the front, denied supporting the EU. The same is repeated with Hungary’s dependency on Russia’s gas and oil.
Second, Hungary’s dependency on Russia. The relations between Hungary and Russia go back to 2010 when Orban was re-elected. More than the economic ties, Moscow had focused on involving Hungary through politics, energy, and its elites. Keeping Hungary a member of the NATO and the EU, Russia has always concentrated on keeping the loop going with Hungary to block the EU’s foreign policy decisions and sanctions against Russia.
Third, the bargain. EU’s trump card to bring Hungary under its control has been always through funding adjustment. One, though promised to send cash and improve infrastructure from the richest EU countries. Two, by cutting down on EU funds keeping the rule of law, and democratic backsliding as reasons. This situation is reversing back in favour of Orban, as the EU wants his vote to pass the oil embargo. Hungary is currently demanding a five-year exception to phase out Russian oil import and a EUR 750 billion in exchange of a vote against Russia and indirectly to make EU funds flow back into Orban’s cronies' accounts which was restricted after the recent elections.
In perspective
First, Hungary’s reluctance to support EU’s sanctions will have an impact on the latter’s proposal to the oil embargo, but this will also sideline Hungary from Europe. There has been a shift in relations with the regional neighbours of Hungary post the Ukraine war. Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic have turned in favour of the EU, the perception has changed positively with the intake of refugees and support to Ukraine. Hence Hungary’s rejection of the oil ban might lead the EU countries to opt for the ban individually, which in turn lead to the isolation of Hungary for its stance favouring Russia.
Second, Russia has succeeded in breaking the European unity, but it will face the hardship of economic sanctions from the EU countries and a big challenge in diverting its gas and oil supplies from the European market.
Third, there is also another possibility that without a united EU ban on phasing out the Russian energy exports might lead to a larger split amongst the EU member states in taking an individual stance against Russia considering the loss to their economies. Which will turn in favour of Russia to play its big power politics over the small economy states of the EU.
References:
Barbara Moens, “No breakthrough on Russian oil ban in talks between von der Leyen and Orbán,” Politico, 09 May 2022
Justin Spike and Samuel Petrequin, “EXPLAINER: Why is Hungary blocking sanctions on Russian oil?,” Associated Press, 10 May 2022
Charlemagne, “Europe is learning to cope with Viktor Orban,” The Economist, 09 April 2022
András Rácz, “Authoritarian Ties: The Case of Russia and Hungary,” Wilson Centre, 22 October 2022
Hans Von Der Burchard And Jacopo Barigazzi, “Germany slams Hungary for blocking EU criticism of China on Hong Kong,” Politico, 10 May 2021
War in Ukraine: Day 78
By Rishma Banerjee
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 12 May, during his visit to Berlin, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba appreciated how Germany has responded to the Russian aggression in Ukraine. He also mentioned that Germany's decision to send heavy weapons to Ukraine and to back the proposed EU sanctions have really made a difference for Ukraine.
On 12 May, the finance minister of Ukraine said that they have been forced to spend USD 8.3 billion on their war efforts with Russia. This is to illustrate the economic backlash that Ukraine is having to face, as the weather though the Russian attack on their country.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
Former President and one of Putin’s closest allies, Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as the deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, issued a warning to the West. He said that the increased support to Ukraine by the US and NATO also increased the risk of triggering retaliation by Russia. He said: "Such a conflict always has the risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war… This will be a disastrous scenario for everyone."
The West View: Responses from the US and Europe
On 12 May, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde said that they will be considering Finland’s stance regarding the NATO application in their deliberations about sending their NATO application forward. Sweden and Finland have had a long history of diplomatic and military ties, and are likely to move in tandem. Public support for Finland’s NATO membership application has grown three-fold. The president, prime minister, and senior cabinet ministers will be meeting on Sunday, to formalize their decision and make an official announcement.
British multinational oil and gas company Shell announced they will sell 411 petrol stations in Russia to Lukoil, which is the country’s second-largest oil producer. Shell Neft, which is the Russian subsidiary, will sell all its stakes in joint businesses as well as a protest against the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The German industrial manufacturing company Siemens also made an announcement along similar lines. They said that they will stop their 170-year-old business in Russia, given the current situation.
On 12 May, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced that they are likely to ramp up investments in Ukraine and its neighbourhood. They said that the donors indicated pledges of almost USD 1.04 billion. President Odile Renaud-Basso said that this decision was reached at the recent board of governors’ meeting.
THE GLOBAL FALLOUTS
Implications of the Ukraine war
A UN agency, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) reported that over 6 million people have fled from Ukraine since the war began on 24 February. They also mentioned that more than 8 million people have been internally displaced within the country, in what is Europe’s worst-ever refugee crisis.
On 12 May, the UNHRC passed a resolution about starting an investigation into the rights abuses by the Russian troops in parts of Ukraine that is allegedly controlled by them. While 33 members voted in favour of the resolution, 12 members abstained and 2 members, China and Eritrea voted against it. Michelle Bachelet, the UN human rights chief also mentioned that about 1,000 bodies had been recovered in and around Kyiv, in recent weeks. She said that these verify that many of the violations by Russia amount to war crimes.
References
“In Berlin, Ukraine's Kuleba welcomes positive changes in Germany's position,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“EXCLUSIVE War forces Ukraine to divert $8.3 bln to military spending, tax revenue drops - minister,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“Russia warns West over risk of conflict with NATO,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“Sweden to take Finland NATO stance into account, foreign minister says,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“Shell agrees to sell Russian retail business to Lukoil,” BBC Live, 12 May 2022
“Siemens Announces Russia Exit Over Ukraine War,” The Moscow Times, 12 May 2022
“EBRD receives donor pledges to ramp up Ukraine investments,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“Number of refugees fleeing Ukraine war exceeds 6 million -UN agency,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“UN sets up inquiry into Russia's alleged rights abuses in Ukraine,” Reuters, 12 May 2022
“Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 78 of the invasion,” The Guardian Live, 12 May 2022
Europe in brief
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
FRANCE
Zemmour seeks a parliamentary seat in Saint-Tropez after failing presidential bid
On 12 May, France’s far-right pundit Eric Zemmour said that he would be seeking a seat in the Saint-Tropez constituency. He also announced that he would be standing up for the upcoming parliamentary elections and said: “I will lead our beautiful and major fight along with our 550 candidates.” Zemmour recorded his highest vote share nationally from Saint-Tropez, giving him a higher chance of winning the upcoming elections. Earlier, he had stood as a presidential candidate to unseat incumbent president Emmanuel Macron but was eliminated in the first round of the elections. (“French far-right pundit Zemmour seeks parliamentary seat in Saint-Tropez constituency,” France24, 12 May 2022)
MALTA
ILGA-Europe announces Valletta as the best country for LGBT+ rights
On 12 May, the ILGA-Europe association said Malta maintained the best policies, laws and practices to discourage discrimination against LGBT+ communities. Malta has been at the top of the Rainbow Europe chart since 2016. Denmark rose seven places to be the second-best country, crossing Belgium. However, Belgium has announced plans to ban its conversion therapies by the end of the year to become more inclusive. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey were rated at the bottom of the charts as they were the worst European countries at protecting LGBT+ rights. (“Malta remains best European country for LGBT+ rights, says report,” Euronews, 13 May 2022)
THE UK
London experiences a shrinking economy amid recession despairs
On 12 May, according to a report by Reuters, the UK’s economy shrank in March. This comes as the UK faced a fall in the gross domestic product by 0.1 per cent in February, while the Bank of England had forecasted a 0.9 per cent growth. The bank further forecasted inflation to surpass ten per cent in the final quarter of 2022. But, the inflation rate was up by seven per cent in March, which is already more than the three times its two per cent rise target. UK’s chief economist at capital economics Paul Dales said: “The economy had less momentum than we thought even before the full hit from the cost of living crisis has been felt…The risk of recession has just risen.” (David Milliken and William Schomberg, “UK economy shrinks in March as recession risks mount,” Reuters, 12 May 2022)
GENDER
Spain drafts law on medical leave for women with severe period pain
On 12 May, politicians in Spain said they discussed introducing medical leave for women who suffer from severe period pain. The draft bill mentions that women could avail three to five days of leave a month for period pain. If passed, the bill would be the first legal entitlement in Europe. Spain’s legislation has been recently working towards the broader reproductive health reforms, bringing a change to the country’s laws on abortion. However, the law would not apply to women who suffer mild discomfort. (“Spain plans menstrual leave in new law for those with severe pain,” BBC, 12 May 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
France’s foreign ministry condemns baseless arrests of citizens in Iran
On 12 May, France’s foreign ministry confirmed that two of its citizens were detained in Iran. Iran’s intelligence accused them of planning to cause “chaos, social disorder and instability”. However, the French education union said the two individuals had gone for a holiday in Iran. This comes as International organizations and human rights activists have been accusing the authorities in Iran of arresting Western citizens and using them as bargaining chips at negotiations. Sweden’s foreign ministry too confirmed that on of its citizen was arrested in Iran while on holiday and was also similarly accused of espionage. (“France condemns arrest of two citizens in Iran,” BBC, 12 May 2022)