NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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IN FOCUS
NATO’s expansion since 1949 and the warnings from Russia
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
Breaking decades of neutrality
On 17 May, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin mentioned that the countries joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were constituting a threat to Russia. This comes as Finland and Sweden announced to join NATO to deter conflict and increase their security. The announcement broke decades of neutrality the countries stood by and shed light on the expansion of NATO since its emergence in 1949. NATO’s membership enlarged from 12 member states to 30 countries, with the Republic of North Macedonia being the latest to join on 27 March 2020.
NATO’s Article 10
NATO’s open-door policy is based on the founding of Article 10. Article 10 stipulates that the North Atlantic Council decides to invite any country to join the alliance based on consensus among all allies. No third country has a say in such deliberations. NATO claims that the enlargement process aimed to promote stability and cooperation. Furthermore, build a united Europe based on freedom, peace, democracy, and shared values. However, the accession process is a seven-step procedure that can take years to accomplish.
Analyzing the expansion from 1949 to 2000 & 2001 to present
Between 1949 and 2000, NATO expanded to seven other countries: Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. The accession of these countries happened over 51 years. Between 2001 and 2020, NATO expanded to 11 other countries in 19 years, raising concerns for Russia as now more countries on its borders were planning to join the defence alliance. Countries that joined NATO post-2000 were: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia.
Thus, Putin had mentioned that as more countries were aiming to join NATO, it also increased Russia’s possibilities of a military and political consequence. The roots of the crisis and Moscow’s warnings began in 2008 in its war against Georgia. When Russia claimed that under the Soviet Union, the US had promised not to expand NATO, yet it did expand from 12 to 30+ members. Putin said NATO’s expansion was the reason that had caused a major breach of faith by the West. On 27 September 2021, Putin did remind the West that NATO’s expansion to Ukraine was a red line for Russia, yet, issues escalated since then and the rest is history.
References
“North Atlantic Treaty Organization,” nato.int, 14 May 2022
Tristan Bove, “Putin says Sweden and Finland joining NATO and breaking with decades of neutrality is fine after all. ‘No problems,” Fortune, 17 May 2022
Dmitri Trenin, “The Ukraine crisis and the resumption of great-power rivalry,” Carnegie Moscow, July 2014
Eurostat reports rise in air emissions: Three takeaways
By Padmashree Anandhan
On 16 May, the EU’s statistics agency, Eurostat, reported that greenhouse gas emissions had re-bounced to pre-pandemic levels of 2019 due to increased economic activity. In the fourth quarter of 2021, all of the EU's 27 member states witnessed an increase of eight per cent compared to 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU increased to 1,041 million metric tonnes of CO2, from 1,005 million tonnes in 2019, which was before the pandemic.
Three takeaways
First, increased emissions from the economic sector. According to the fourth quarter report 2021, the emissions from households, manufacturing, electricity, agriculture, transportation, and storage accounted for a range of 11-22 per cent of greenhouse gases. Amongst them, transportation and storage marked the highest increase with 18 per cent, followed by mining, quarrying, and electricity. The increase is recorded due to the restart of economic activities which drastically reduced during the pandemic. In estimating the long-term effect of the increase, the greenhouse gas emissions in the EU show a stable reduction trend.
Second, the reverse trend across the EU member states. The report indicates an increasing trend in greenhouse gases across all EU member states, where it was negative in 2022. While emissions in a few states such as Cyprus, Slovenia, and the Netherlands seem to have increased at a much slower rate. Estonia, Bulgaria, Malta, Ireland, Latvia, and Belgium have shot up high ranging from 28-13 per cent.
Third, benefit of air emission reporting. Eurostat reports data based on two types of air emissions, greenhouse gases, and air pollutants. Under the greenhouse gases, it covers seven gases that affect climate change and under air pollutants, it counts in seven dangerous substances that are a risk to human health and the environment. The key factor of the report is Eurostat’s three perspectives which provide the emission data from production (emitted from domestic production of goods and services), territorial data (environmental pressure faced within the state borders), and consumption perspective. Through this method of reporting, it benefits the EU to carry out policy analyses to make investment decisions, it allows to compare the emissions with the climate change goals and develop guidelines.
References
“EU economy greenhouse gases above pre-pandemic levels,” Eurostat, 16 May 2022
“Quarterly greenhouse gas emissions in the EU,” Eurostat, May 2022
“Air Emissions Database,” Eurostat, May 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 82
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
Ukraine’s finance ministry reported that they have signed an agreement on a $100 million loan with Japan. This loan will primarily help in supporting the vulnerable people in Ukraine. They also mentioned that the loan was for 30 years and had a grace period of 10 years.
On 16 May, Ukraine's defence ministry said that the troops defending the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv, had repelled Russian forces and advanced along the border with Russia. The ministry also posted a video on Facebook, which shows Ukrainian troops forwarding near the border post. According to the ministry it was the 227th Battalion of the 127th Brigade of Ukraine's Territorial Defence Force that had reached the border with Russia.
The governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai reported that at least 10 civilians have been killed by Russian shelling in Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine. The governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko on the other hand, said that nine civilians were killed and six were injured due to Russian attacks in the region.
President Zelenskyy spoke about his discussion with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. He mentioned how he has asked for further financial support and said: “The IMF is our important partner. We look forward to further fruitful joint work in maintaining financial stability of Ukraine.”
The Moscoe View:
Claims by Russia
On 16 May, the Russian defence ministry said that its forces have shot down a Su-25 aircraft near the settlements of Yevhenivka in the Mykolaiv region and Velyka Komyshuvakha in Kharkiv, and a Su-24 near Snake Island. While the claims are yet to be confirmed by Russia, this comes amidst continuous missile strikes by Russia, in the eastern part of Ukraine.
On 16 May, Russia said that they agreed to evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol. As a part of the deal, 260 evacuees were moved to a medical facility in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk.
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 16 May, the European Commission deliberated on whether to approve a new package of financial aid to Ukraine. This will include loans that will help Kyiv by providing liquidity and the long-term financing of reconstruction, in the country. EU foreign ministers deliberating on the sixth round of sanctions on Russia, however, could not reach a consensus, as Hungary could not be persuaded to lift its veto. Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, spoke about how the member states have been unable to reach an agreement regarding the oil embargo said foreign ministers had decided, however, to provide an additional EUR 500 million, making the total sum of aid to EUR 2 billion.
Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany said that Russia will not get away with its aggression and imperialistic actions in Ukraine. He also mentioned that the West will not be tolerating such a “diktat peace.” It was also reported that protestors at a southern English port, have blocked the entry of a Greek tanker carrying Russian fuel cargo.
On 16 May, Belarus’s president, Alexandr Lukashenko, a key ally of Moscow, accused the West of supporting Nazi ideas. He addressed the Russian president and the leaders of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan at the summit of the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), in Moscow. Lukashenko called on members of the Russian-led military alliance to unite against the West, who he alleged was prolonging the conflict in Ukraine to weaken Moscow.
Turkey said that they will not be convinced to support Sweden and Finland’s decision to join the NATO. President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan mentioned that the delegations from these countries should not even bother coming to Ankara and said: “We will not say yes to those [countries] that apply sanctions to Turkey to join the security organization Nato.”
The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war
McDonald’s, which has been in business in Russia for 30 years, will stop their operations in the country. The company will remove the McDonald’s name, logo, branding, and menu, before selling it to a local buyer. They said that Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and the unpredictable operating environment, were making work untenable, and did not align with the company’s values.
References
“Ukraine signs agreement with Japan on $100 million loan,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
“Troops defending Kharkiv reached Russian border, Ukraine says,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
“Russian shelling kills 10 civilians in Ukraine's Sievierodonetsk - regional governor,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
“Nine civilians killed in Russian attacks in Ukraine's Donetsk region - governor,” Reuters, 17 May 2022
“Ukraine's president discusses need for financial support with IMF's Georgieva,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
“Russia says it shot down three Ukrainian fighter jets, one near Snake Island,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Sarah Butler, “McDonald’s to sell its business in Russia after 30 years,” The Guardian, 16 May 2022
Francesco Guarascio, “EU to offer Ukraine new loans to plug immediate needs,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
“EU ministers fail to persuade Hungary to sign up to Russian oil embargo,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “Hungary ‘holding EU hostage’ over sanctions on Russian oil,” The Guardian, 16 May 2022
“West will not allow Russia a 'diktat peace' in Ukraine, says Germany's Scholz,”Reuters, 16 May 2022
“Lukashenko urges Russia-led CSTO military alliance to unite against West,” Reuters, 16 May 2022
Jon Henley, “Turkey says it will not approve Sweden and Finland joining Nato,” The Guardian, 16 May 2022
“Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (May 16),” National Public Radio, 16 May 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
FRANCE
Elisabeth Borne takes over as the prime minister of France
On 16 March, president Emmanuel Macron appointed labor minister Elisabeth Borne as the new prime minister for France following Jean Castex’s resignation. Borne's reputation is likely to help Macron appeal to radical-left voters who supported Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round of the presidential election in April, without upsetting the followers of Marine Le Pen on the right. Her first responsibility would be to guide Macron's centrist coalition through the upcoming legislative election to be held in June. Despite her previous ties to the Socialist Party, Borne demonstrated her commitment to the president by serving as transport, environment, and eventually labor minister during his first term. Macron also stated that the new prime minister will be in charge of "green planning," with the goal of hastening the implementation of climate-related policies in France. (“Macron appoints Elisabeth Borne as France's new prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 16 May 2022)
THE UK
Rise in food prices announced by the Bank of England
On 17 May, the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey cautioned that there might be a possibility of an increase in food prices in the UK and other countries. There have been concerns about the rise in food and energy prices due to the war in Ukraine. Bailey warned that a very big income shock would occur as there would be an increase in global goods prices and a rise in unemployment. World wheat prices had gone up by 25 per cent over the last few weeks due to the war. Some of the cabinet ministers are unhappy with the Bank's performance and the rise in inflation. Meanwhile, Bailey defended the bank stating that most of its economic issues stem from external factors such as the war in Ukraine, the COVID wave in China, etc. (“Bank governor in 'apocalyptic' warning over rising food prices,” BBC News, 17 May 2022)
REGIONAL
The UK and EU likely to start a trade war
On 16 March, an article in BBC examined the possibility of a trade war between the EU and UK following hints that the UK government may scrap parts of the Brexit deal regarding Northern Ireland. Economists warn that the EU could target politically-sensitive products like Salmon from Scotland for tariffs to maximize the impact. An all-out trade war may be mutually devastating at a time when the EU and UK economies are already severely unstable. The Brexit Opportunities Minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg has described such a scenario as an "act of self-harm," possibly betting that the EU will not take that risk. However, Brussels may decide that beginning the retaliation procedure is necessary to gain leverage and force the UK to concede in the Northern Ireland dispute. (Dharshini David, “Northern Ireland: Could the EU and UK face a trade war?,” BBC, 17 May 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Iran as an alternative to supply oil to Europe
On 15 May, the government of Iran is thinking about the possibility of exporting gas to Europe. Iran has one of the largest gas reserves in the world which has been hit by the US sanctions that were reimposed in 2018. It is considering replacing Russia as Europe's oil and gas exporter. The rising energy prices due to the Russian invasion have increased the opportunity for Iran as many European countries were dependent on Russian energy imports. Recently Iran and Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding on the same, which might circumvent Iraq from the US sanctions. (“Iran considers exporting gas to Europe: Official,” ALARABIYA News, 15 May 2022)