NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Atlantic Council/US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service
The weaponization of wheat as the war in Ukraine continues
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
On 01 June, Pope Francis addressed the people on the worsening global food crisis accentuated by the war in Ukraine. He mentioned how grain could eventually be used as a “weapon of war” and called on the authorities to lift the blockade imposed on Ukraine’s grain exports. Pope Francis has been condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but this was the first time he emphasized on the global food crisis as Kyiv and Moscow are the largest wheat exporters to countries in Africa and the Middle East. Russia and Ukraine account for about 29 per cent of the world's wheat exports.
Negotiating the wheat crisis
The UN has proposed to release Russia and Belarus from sanctions on their fertilizer exports if Moscow unblocks Ukraine’s grain exports through the Black Sea. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres mentioned that the UN urged the West and Russia to show “goodwill on all sides” to control the global food crisis.
However, on 28 May, Putin, on a call with France’s president Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s chancellor Olaf Sholz asked the West to remove all the “biting sanctions it slapped on Moscow after its invasion.” Furthermore, the Kremlin stated: “An increase in the supply of Russian fertilizers and agricultural products will also help reduce tensions on the global food market, which, of course, will require the removal of the relevant sanctions.”
Russia’s efforts to deter a global food crisis
On 30 May, Putin stated that Moscow would bring in systems to facilitate the unhindered grain export from Ukrainian ports. Russia plans to export its wheat by coordinating with Turkey. Putin also mentioned that Russia would export more significant volumes of agricultural products such as wheat if sanctions were lifted. This led to accusations from the UN and the West that Russia was the reason for deepening the global food crisis and blamed Moscow for blocking Ukrainian ports. Russia further claims that sanctions by the West had affected their exports to access vessels or caused impediments to countries importing from Russia. Regardless of the situation, Putin plans to increase wheat exports to 87 million tonnes between June and July to counter the wheat crisis.
Ukraine’s recourse to exporting wheat
Ukraine used to export most of its agricultural products through its Odesa port. However, it can only send 1-1.5 million tonnes through freight trains and river transport due to the war. Even with the government planning to push for shipping through trains, the country faces logistical setbacks due to the lack of fuel, trucks, broader rail gauges, and freight wagons.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry official Roman Rusakov said: “Ports are necessary. But having said that we certainly will improve our railway logistics. Meantime, (river) ports will be in place to do a good job. But will it be enough to reach the target of like 6, 7 million a month? No way.”
Ukraine plans to export 700,000 to 750,000 tonnes of wheat through ports on the Danube river through Romania, destined for North Africa and Asia. They also plan to send the rest of the grain by road, but in the last 22 days, only 28,000 tonnes were exported by roadway. Another challenge is storing grain in Europe, as Ukraine can send its grains through European ports, a logistical issue of storage infrastructure has emerged. Countries through which Ukraine sends its grain do not have the infrastructure to support its exports and store the wheat.
Global movements to control the emergency
The African Union’s (AU) head and Senegal’s president Macky Sall stated that he would be visiting Russia to speak to Putin on the impending food crisis. The AU also plans to discuss issues with Zelesnkyy and the EU concerning the increasing prices of commodities. This comes as the African continent is dependent on Ukraine for wheat and fertilizer from Russia.
UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson assured Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the UK, with the G7 members, would push for grain exports and try to get Russia to relax its blockade. The G7 is also planning to initiate a massive public diplomacy campaign to spread awareness of the worsening wheat crisis and the reasons for the shortage. The campaign was launched to bring the issue to the UN General Assembly and call for an end to the naval blockade in the Black Sea.
Additional challenges ahead
First, India halting grain exports. On 14 May, India announced that it would be halting its wheat exports to counter domestic food prices and support neighboring countries. India placed wheat exports under the “prohibited” category as prices in the international market spiked exponentially with the war in Ukraine. However, India drew backlash from the international community and the G7 for its action as it could influence other countries to take similar steps.
Second, logistical shortcomings. Even though Ukraine plans to export its grains through Europe, it would take twice the time for the wheat to reach its destination countries. This could lead to acute shortages in certain countries. Additionally, due to the detour, the grain prices would inherently rise, and amid a fuel price hike, the countries importing the wheat would have to pay substantially higher prices.
Third, civil unrest. The war in Ukraine threatens the African and Middle Eastern region’s food security as the countries are dependent on Kyiv and Moscow for wheat supplies. The UN has issued warnings of rising food insecurity that could induce civil unrest similar to the Arab spring. Egypt, the world’s top wheat importer, could face political unrest as the war has strained its subsidized bread supplies.
References
Paul Iddon, “How the Ukraine war is driving food insecurity in the Middle East,” The New Arab, 02 June 2022
Anders Aslund, “Russia’s war on global food security,” Atlantic Council, 01 June 2022
Philip Pullela, “Wheat can’t be ‘weapon of war’, Pope says, urging lifting of Ukraine block,” Reuters, 01 June 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Putin ready to facilitate unfettered grain exports from Ukraine’s ports - Kremlin,” Reuters, 31 May 2022
“Putin Ties Ukraine Grain Flow To Sanctions Relief; Macron And Scholz Urge Serious Peace Effort,” Radio Free Europe, 28 May 2022
Pavel Polityuk, Felix Hoske, and Stefaniia Bern, “Black Sea ports still the best way to get Ukraine’s grain moving fast,” Reuters, 26 May 2022
Russia-Norway: Nuclear safety cooperation paused
By Harini Madhusudan
On 02 June, Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear agency stalled further cooperation with Norway on Nuclear Safety. This brings to close three decades of partnership, during which, Norway gave Russia more than two billion euros for helping with its nuclear dump sites and to improve safety at icebreakers and power plants. Rosatom announced on 31 May that Norway would no longer be welcome to participate in projects which were financed by Oslo until recently. Norway has said that the contact channels, emergency preparedness, and information sharing would continue.
Russia and Norway share a coastline on the Barents Sea with a common interest to prevent radioactive leakage into the marine environment. In an area of about 60-kilometers from the Russian land border with Norway, some of the largest dump sites for radioactive waste, and spent nuclear fuel from Soviet-era submarines are stored. For example, at the spent nuclear fuel storage in Andreeva Bay, the shipment of spent nuclear fuel from the storage tanks holds some 10,000 spent nuclear fuel elements stored in concrete tanks. The bay works on the removal of non-problematic fuel elements, first by ship to Murmansk and then by train to a reprocessing plant in Mayak near Chelyabinsk, most of which is paid for by Norway. At every stage of this process, there remains a threat of the damaged elements or the fear of accidents during lifting and re-packing into new containers.
Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Norway froze all of its financings for nuclear projects agreed upon under the joint commission between Russia and Norway. One of the reasons for the current response by Russia indicates their statement, ‘no pay = no access.’ After a meeting of the Norwegian-Russian Commission on nuclear safety in Oslo on 31 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry said, “Nuclear security cooperation between Norway and Russia is a key dimension in our bilateral relationship. It is in our common interest to reduce the risk of accidents and radioactive contamination,” and while the state secretary of the Foreign Ministry heads these meetings, this year, the Norwegian representative was led by the director of the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (DSA). The response was because Norway no longer maintains political contact with Moscow.
Additionally, Naturvernforbundet (Friends of the Earth Norway), an organization that follows the nuclear safety work in Russia, decided to stay away from the Commission meeting this year. Naturvernforbundet has been working in cooperation with local non-governmental groups for years, and these NGOs have played a significant role since the 1990s in bringing attention to the urgency of nuclear safety in the north. While the meeting promised to continue the exchange of information and keep the channels of communication open, this incident could be seen as a collateral fallout of the War in Russia in the decades-long systems that have existed in the region.
References
“Russia Pauses Nuclear Safety Cooperation With Norway in the North,” Moscow Times, 01 June 2022
Charles Digges, “Russian-Norwegian nuclear safety commission ceases work over war in Ukraine,” Bellona, 01 June 2022
Turkey and Greece: The age-old animosity of the Aegean neighbours
By Rishma Banerjee
On 01 June, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara will put an end to their bilateral talks with Athens, considering his discontentment about Greece’s recent actions. While they have always had a long and testy relationship, the leaders of both the countries had talked about mending their cooperation in March. But recently, Turkey accused Greece of violating its airspace by holding air force exercises over islands in the Aegean Sea, likewise Athens also claimed that Turkey violated their airspaces. Further, the Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s comments on a recent trip to the US seemed to have triggered the pivot for Erdogan.
Fault lines in Greece and Turkey’s relations
The crisis and dispute between Greece and Turkey is not a new one. It can be traced back to the early 19th century, when Greece was fighting for independence from the Ottoman Empire, which is in present-day Turkey. However, since then, their bilateral ties have seen little improvement.
1930 marked an important time in their relationship as the Treaty of Lausanne was signed, which demarcated their respective borders. They also pledged that they will not join opposing economic or military blocs and try put an end to the disagreements between them.
However, the next crisis came with Cyprus, and both the countries aspirations to usurp the territory. While they have been contesting over Cyprus for a long time, because of the significant presence of both the Greek and Turkish diaspora in the country, the situation reached its peak in 1974. Greece’s military regime staged a Cypriot coup d'état, which was followed by a Turkish response in five days. As a result of this crisis, Turkey established the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but even to this day, it is recognized as a sovereign territory only by Turkey.
Both the countries also disagree when it comes to the control of the Aegean Sea. The delimitation of territorial waters, the national airspace over the Aegean Sea, and the use of the common continental shelf has not been agreed upon. Since the 1990s, the Aegean countries have tried to encircle each other causing fallouts and the EU’s intervention. In 1987, they came close to all-out war, when a Turkish survey ship was ordered to be sunk to the bottom of the Greek waters if it floated too close. Again, in 1995 there was a flare-up in tension, regarding the jurisdiction of Imia, the uninhabited rock island.
Contemporary issues in their bilateral relations
The relationship between the two countries has still been quite tumultuous. They have made little progress in the 60 rounds of talk they conducted from 2002 to 2016. Recently, in 2020, they came close to confrontation, when Turkey sent a drilling ship to the contested Mediterranean waters. Last year, after a five-year hiatus, the two NATO members resumed talks to address their differences in the Mediterranean Sea among other bilateral issues, but again to no great success.
Erdogan said on 01 June that Turkey has canceled the bilateral cooperation platform, dubbed as the High-Level Strategic Council with Greece, which was created in 2010 for their rapprochement. This has been catalysed by mutual allegations of airspace violations, and Mitsotakis’s comments that the US should not sell the F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
Moreover, the Special Forces of Turkey and Azerbaijan recently conducted a joint military exercise, ‘EFES-2022’ by simulating a landing on a Greek Islands, thus adding to the already strained relations. The scenario includes training in penetrating behind enemy lines through the sea, clearing coastlines and attacking coastal enemy’s military positions as well as neutralizing coastal targets.
References
Galip Dalay, “Turkey, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean: Charting a way out of the current deadlock,” Brookings, 28 January 2021
“Turkey, Greece agree to improve ties amid Ukraine conflict,” Reuters, 14 March 2022
“Greece and Turkey accuse each other's military of airspace violations,” Euronews, 29 April 2022
Andrew Wilks, “Turkey breaks off high-level talks with Greece as rift grows,” Washington Post, 01 June 2022
“Erdogan halts Turkey-Greece talks as rift widens,” Al Jazeera, 01 June 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 99
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 02 June, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his address in Luxembourg’s Parliament reported that 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory had come under Russia’s control. It marked up to 1000 kilometers covering Severodonetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, and Zaporizhzhia. Apart from this, he claimed that Russia has faced military losses of more than 30,000, whereas Russia has confirmed only 1300 deaths.
Advisor to president, Mykhailo Podolyak confirmed the receiving of long-range HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) rockets and 108 units of M777 Howitzers from the US. He said that Ukraine will not be using it against Russia.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said that it will be collaborating with other European countries. It is to bring the Russian naval bloc to an end and to reopen the ports for export grain. Since the Blockade caused by the Russian ships, international markets have suffered a shortage in wheat and basic food items. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that with the increased Russian aggression, the food crisis has shot up which has led Ukraine to force lift the naval bloc.
On 02 June, Ukraine announced the increase in the interest rate for the first time in its monitory policy since the war began. The rate has shot from 10 per cent to 25 per cent and upon the rise governor of the Central Bank called for IMF aid.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 02 June, the Ministry of Defense claimed to have struck Ukraine’s ground aircraft Sukhoio SU-25 in Mykolaiv region. Russia said that it used a “precision air-based missile” to launch the attack. It also reported on the killing of 240 Ukraine soldiers.
On EU passing of the sixth set of sanctions, Russia has warned the EU stating the stop in oil imports would be “self destructive” move. According to Russia’s Foreign Ministry: “highly likely to provoke further price increases, destabilize energy markets, and disrupt supply chains.” The European Council chief Charles Michel countered by stating the cut in oil imports and finances will push Russia to settle for a diplomatic solution.
Russia’s Defence Ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov stated that the number of foreign mercenaries has reduced from 6,600 to 3,500. He reported that they were destroyed by Russia’s precision long-range weapons in the combat zone.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 02 June, European and transatlantic countries from Slovakia, Turkey, and Sweden vowed to supply a wide range of weapons, anti-tank missiles, Artillery rockets systems, and Baykar TB2 drones. The US weapons supply is estimated to be USD 700 million including anti-tank missiles, armor weapons, helicopters,
The UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update stated that Russia had brought Severodonetsk under control. Although the fight continues between Ukraine and Russia, 80 per cent of Severodonetsk and its twin city Lysychansk is observed to be taken over by Russians. The UK has also agreed to provide M270 long-range rocket systems, apart from this it will also train the Ukraine soldiers, and troops in the UK.
The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 02 June Sri Lanka reported on seizing of Russian plane Aeroflot Airbus A330 that had come from Moscow. It was stopped upon the order from the Colombo’s Commercial Court. It is still unclear if the seizing was due to sanctions.
References
“Russia controls most of Severodonetsk - UK intelligence,” BBC, 02 June 2022
“Limited Russian success around Lysychansk - US military analysts,” BBC, 02 June 2022
“Slovakia to deliver eight howitzers to Ukraine,” BBC, 02 June 2022
“Ukraine raises interest rate for first time since invasion,” BBC, 02 June 2022
“Russia: Number of pro-Ukrainian foreign fighters has halved,” BBC, 02 June 2022
“Russia currently controls 20% of Ukraine territory – Zelensky,” BBC, 02 June 2022
“Ukraine calls for action to reopen ports to export grain,” BBC, 02 June 2022
“Russia claims to have shot down Ukrainian jet,” BBC, 02 June 202
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
FRANCE
France’s diplomatic corps strike to withdraw Macron’s reform
On 02 June, the diplomatic corps of France’s foreign ministry joined a strike under the hashtag #diplo2metier. The protest has been staged demanding to withdraw the proposed reform to expand and modernize the diplomatic staff of France. In April, Macron announced the reform which will combine the diplomatic corps considered the elites with the civil servant staff pool, which will enable the staff to compete for diplomatic posts. The strikers argue that the reform will alter the careers, leading to loss of expertise, and will require training and specialization. (“French diplomats go on strike in rare protest,” Deutsche Welle, 02 June 2022)
THE UK
The Cube debunks misleading claims surrounding the cost of Queen's platinum jubilee
On 02 June, Euronews reported about the misleading claims that the 70 years on the throne celebrations cost the taxpayers EUR one billion. However, according to the digital, culture, media, and sports department, the country had allocated EUR 28 million for the jubilee. The 28 million was also borne by partner organizations and not only by individual taxpayers. Additionally, the government clarified that the EUR one billion tag included the losses in productivity for the extra holidays announced. The UK government mentioned that the net loss would likely be EUR 2.3 billion due to the four-day weekend. (Sophia Khatsenkova and Matthew Holroyd, "Misleading posts claim the Queen's Platinum Jubilee cost taxpayers £1 billion," Euronews, 02 June 2022)
REGIONAL
EU passes the sixth set of sanctions on meeting Hungary’s demands
On 02 June, the EU countries passed the sixth set of sanctions upon meeting Hungary’s demands. Earlier Hungary placed a bloc in approving the complete embargo on Russian oil, challenging the decision-making process of the EU. In the new set of sanctions, the EU imposes a partial ban on oil imports, with an exemption for Hungary to import oil from Russia. it also eased the sanctions on Patriarch Kirill who heads the Russian Orthodox Church and favours Putin. Although most of the EU countries raised concerns about Hungary demand’s but eventually agreed as a compromise. The link between the church head and Hungary's Prime Minister is unknown, yet Kirill is well known for pro-war views, religious cleansing operations, and deep conservatism. (“EU bends to Hungary's demand, drops Russian patriarch from 6th sanctions package: sources,” Deutsche Welle, 02 June 2022)
ENERGY
Netherlands and Germany to extract natural gas from the North Sea
On 02 June, the Netherlands announced its collaboration with Germany in extracting natural gas from the offshore wells of the North Sea. According to the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affair, the capacity of the gas wells ranges between two to four billion cubic meters of gas and the ministry has now approved the “cross-border project.” When it comes to the proportion, the Netherlands is dependent on Russian oil for up to 15 per cent whereas Germany imports close to 55 per cent. Despite the project facing criticisms for extracting from the biodiversity hotspot or ecosystems, the project is expected to be implemented by 2024. (“Netherlands greenlights North Sea gas production with Germany,” Deutsche Welle, 02 June 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Accusations arise against France's top three arms producers of war crimes in Yemen
On 02 June, the European centre for constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR), the Mwatana for Human Rights, and Sherpa International accused France's Dassault Aviation, Thales, and MBDA France as complicit actors in Yemen's war crimes. The Rights group accused the producers of supporting the Saudi-led coalition to prolong and worsen the conflict. Mwatana for Human Rights executive director Abdulrasheed al-Faqih said: "The coalition's airstrikes have caused terrible destruction in Yemen. Weapons produced and exported by European countries, and in particular France, have enabled these crimes." (John Irish and Caroline Pailliez, "Rights groups allege French arms makers complicit in Yemen war crimes," Reuters, 02 June 2022)