NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : JOSHUA POSANER/POLITICO
IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee
Turkey’s persisting problems with Sweden and Finland joining the NATO
On 12 June, the NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg met Finland's president, Sauli Niinisto; he reiterated Turkey’s genuine concerns about Sweden and Finland’s NATO bid. Turkey has been opposed to the entry of Finland and Sweden as full NATO members. Turkey’s main concerns are the Kurds’ issue and a few organizations that Turkey considers terrorists mainly, the PKK.
According to Article 10 of NATO’s founding treaty, the approval for membership must be unanimous. Sweden and Finland have to convince all 30 countries for joining. Ankara has already vetoed its application for an expedited membership. Turkey’s president said: “make it clear that they have stopped supporting terrorism.”
There has been a series of bilateral talks between the three countries; other member states have also tried to negotiate. No concrete decision has been reached so far.
Four reasons, why Turkey wants to blocs Sweden and Finland from entering the NATO
First, Sweden’s links with the PKK. Sweden declares the PKK a terrorist, in 1984. With regards to Turkey, any Kurdish group, it does not approve by PKK. In the case of Sweden, it has a history of providing refuge to Kurdish asylum seekers, especially political refugees. Turkey alleges that these people are allied with the PKK, but Sweden has denied such allegations. Sweden has also supported the political wing of the PKK’s Syrian branch, called the PYD, and the same applies to the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Front. Regarding Finland, Turkey’s issue is based more on their association with Sweden and the fact that they follow a similar foreign policy. Turkey has said that for them to accept the membership bids, Sweden and Finland will have to officially stop their support of the PKK and not provide them refuge. They will also have to extradite 30 people who Turkey identifies as terrorists.
First, Sweden’s PKK links; it declared the latter as a terrorist organization in 1984. For Turkey, those groups it does not agree with, is seen as a part of the PKK.
On the other hand, Sweden has been providing asylum to Kurdish refugees, whom Turkey consider as PKK supporters, hence terrorists. Turkey also consider Sweden supporting the PKK’s political wing in Syria– the PYD. Turkey wants Sweden and Finland from supporting the PKK, and expects the latter to extradite 30 people. Second, Turkey wants to use the issue to bargain with the US.
In 2020, US sanctioned the sale of F-35 fighters for Turkey on the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence systems.
Third, Erdogan’s attempt to increase his bargaining power and electoral popularity. There has been a decline in his ratings due to rising inflation, falling Lira, and increasing cost of living. A grandstanding on the above may boost support for Erdogan.
Fourth, the Ukraine fallout. Turkey is attempting a precarious balancing act on Ukraine. While it refused to join the sanctions against Russia, it also sent Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to Ukraine. Turkey has since been trying to negotiate between Ukraine and Russia for a corridor to export Ukraine’s grains to the world.
References
Joshua Posaner, “NATO’s Stoltenberg: Turkey needs to be heard on Sweden, Finland concerns,” Politico, 12 June 2022
Natasha Turak, “Conflict, politics and history: Why Turkey is standing in the way of Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids,” CNBC, 23 May 2022
Gregoire Sauvage, “Can Turkey block Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO?,” France24, 17 May 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 110
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 13 June, the governor of Luhansk, Sergiy Gaidai spoke about the fighting in Sievierodonetsk and said that 70-80 per cent was under Russia’s control. He mentioned how Ukraine’s troops were facing a crisis, but the situation was ‘still under control.’ However, Russia’s forces have destroyed the last bridge that connected Sievierodonetsk with Lysychansk, which will make it impossible for humanitarian supplies to reach Sievierodonetsk, and will also prevent civilians from evacuating the city. Reportedly, Russia is also targeting an industrial zone at the Azot chemical plant in the city, where more than 500 civilians have taken shelter.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared for an interview with a public broadcaster in Germany, ZDF, and spoke about the situation in his country. He also asked Germany’s Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to not be concerned about their ties with Moscow, and to step up on their support for Ukraine instead. Speaking about the chancellor, Zelenskyy said: “He and his government must decide: there can't be a trade-off between Ukraine and relations with Russia.”
Presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, took to Twitter to request more weapons for Ukraine so that they can turn the momentum in eastern Ukraine. He said that they will need 300 multiple launch rocket systems, 500 more tanks, and 1000 more howitzers of the NATO 155mm standard.
Kyiv region’s police chief, Andriy Nyebytov reported on the discovery of a new mass grave of civilians near Bucha. Seven bodies found in the grave were exhumed. Nyebytov said that these were “sadistic crimes of the Russian army.” Moreover, according to the head of the national police in Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko 1200 bodies that have been found in mass graves across Ukraine have not been identified so far.
On 13 June, at a news conference, the deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said that since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has lost a quarter of its arable land. This is significant because Ukraine is known as the ‘breadbasket of the world’. But Vysotskiy said that food security for the population of Ukraine was not yet under threat, as sufficient crops have been sown this year.
The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
On 13 June, the leader of the Russia-backed separatist Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin said that there was an increase in shelling and fighting in the region. He also mentioned that Russia’s end goal in the region is to protect the people of Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. As quoted by Russia’s state news agency, RIA, Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov also reiterated the same issue. Pushilin also reported that the population of Mariupol has halved since active fighting began in the city. He mentioned that the citizens of the city apparently do not want the restoration of the Azovstal steel plant, as they see it as the primary cause of pollution in the region.
Russia’s defence ministry reported that they had struck near the Udachne railway station in the east of the Donbas region with high-precision air-based missiles. By the attack, they had managed to destroy a large number of weapons and military equipment, including some that were supplied by the US and the European nations.
The deputy economic minister Vladimir Ilychev told TASS in an interview that Russia was not planning to leave the global food market, seeing that they are a major supplier of the same. Ilychev is the head of Russia’s delegation at the 12th WTO ministerial conference in Geneva. He said: “we intend to remain there, to supply our products to partners, our traditional consumers, and we are ready to take all the actions available to us to that end, which we have repeatedly stated… But in order for the system to work, it’s necessary for all participants in the process to strive for results.” \
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
At a security policy talk at his summer residence, Finland’s president Sauli Niinisto referred to the war in Ukraine. He said that both Russia and Ukraine were using heavier weapons than before. He alleged that Russia has been using thermobaric missiles, which were weapons of mass destruction. He also said that they were supplying Ukraine with the heavy weapons necessary to combat such heavy weapons.
The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 13 June, Amnesty International said that the attack through constant shelling on cluster munitions and the use of scattered landmines was tantamount to war crimes. After a 14-day-long investigation, Amnesty has found evidence that their relentless attacks on the city have resulted in the death of civilians. Ukraine maintains that 606 civilians have been killed in the region because of Russian aggression.
References
Samantha Lock, Léonie Chao-Fong, Richard Luscombe and Martin Belam, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 111 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022
Max Hunter, “Russia destroys last bridge to Sievierodonetsk, Ukraine says,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Pjotr Sauer, “Fears grow for Sievierodonetsk civilians as plant struck and bridges destroyed,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022
“Zelenskiy tells Germany to give Ukraine support, worry less about Russia,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Dan Sabbagh, “Ukraine asks the west for huge rise in heavy artillery supply,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022
“Kremlin pledges support after Donbas separatist leader calls for more Russian forces,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
“Population of Mariupol halved since beginning of fighting - Head of DPR,” TASS, 13 June 2022
“Russia says it destroyed U.S., European weapons in eastern Ukraine,” Reuters, 13 June 2022
“Russia won’t leave global food market — head of delegation at WTO forum,” TASS, 13 June 2022
“Both sides using heavier weapons in war in Ukraine, says Finnish president,” Reuters, 13 June 2022
“Amnesty says Russia guilty of war crimes in Kharkiv shelling,” Reuters, 13 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
REGIONAL
Stolenberg trusts Stockholm to address Ankara’s concerns
On 13 June, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stolenberg stated that Sweden is ready to address Turkey’s concerns on its bid for NATO membership during his visit to Stockholm. Turkey has previously vetoed applications of Sweden and Finland to join NATO for supporting Kurdish militants in Syria. Stolenberg further stated that Sweden will ensure to amend their legal basis for arms exports to reflect their future standing as a NATO member with new commitments to allies. Earlier on 12 June, Stolenberg had visited Finland as well and mentioned that Turkey’s concerns are legitimate concerns on terrorism and weapons exports. (“NATO: Sweden prepared to address Turkey's security concerns,” Deutsche Welle, 13 June 2022)
Space telescope Gaia delivers new data on its mission
On 13 June, the European Space Agency’s space telescope Gaia released a new batch of data on stars, asteroids and distant bright constellations to map the galaxy. Gaia will scan over a thousand million stars to create the biggest and most detailed three-dimensional map of our Galaxy. In the latest data collection, Gaia indicated spectroscopy information as well in addition to the basic brightness and color details of the stars. Spectroscopy splits the light from stars into its component colors, revealing the chemical, temperature, mass, age, and velocity of the objects being studied. (Jonathan Amos, “Gaia continues quest for the ultimate sky map,” BBC, 14 June 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Ottawa and Copenhagen agree to share Hans Island
On 13 June, Canada and Denmark agreed to split a small deserted island in the Arctic, bringing an end to a nearly 50-year diplomatic dispute between the two countries. The government issued an order-in-council confirming the Hans Island agreement. Hans Island rises 180 meters above the cold seas that separate Canada and Greenland. Both nations are 18 kilometers distant from the island, giving them the legal right to claim the rock under international law. The island will be divided into two halves, one will be Canadian and the other will be part of Greenland. (Ashly Burke, “Canada and Denmark reach deal to divide uninhabited Arctic island,” CBC News, 13 June 2022)
The Rwanda Plan to take off from 14 June
On 13 June, BBC explained the working and implications of the Rwanda Plan following the announcement of the first deportation flight to be taken off on 14 June. Some asylum seekers would be transferred to the Central African country during the five-year trial. It is said to be focused mostly on young migrants who come by "illegal, risky, or unnecessary means," such as small boats or vehicles. Rwanda has stated that the migrants will be entitled to full protection under Rwandan law as well as equal access to jobs and services. As part of the agreement, the UK would spend GBP 120 million in Rwanda's "economic development and growth." The government also stated that it will cover expenditures equivalent to those spent in the UK. (“How many people cross the Channel and how might the Rwanda plan work?, BBC, 13 June 2022)