NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
UK’s new provisions to alter the Northern Ireland Protocol invoke tensions in Europe
On 14 June, the UK government submitted its plans on revising the clauses of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Parliament. It aims to alter the provisions by inventing green lanes and red lanes to facilitate a smoother trade flow between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. In response, the EU has accused the UK as it considered the move a breach of international law. UK’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “a reasonable, practical solution to the problems facing Northern Ireland, we are very clear that we're acting in line with the law.” At the same Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed his willingness to fix the protocol in line with the Belfast Good Friday Agreement.
What are the key provisions proposed by the UK?
First, provision on the movement of goods and custom duty. Under this UK plans to exclude Article 5(1) and Article 5(2) which will restrict the custom duties on the goods that enter from any of the UK territories. It includes Great Britain, the Isle of Man, any of the Channel Islands, and any other place that is outside the EU that goes under the “qualifying movement.” It also proposes to bring a provision to make new laws and changes to section 4 of the Northern Ireland Protocol on the administrative processes and treatment of goods that are no more “UK or non-EU destined goods.”
Second, provision for the regulation of goods. The term means, making the goods available in the market, putting them into service, production, licensing, testing, trial, inspection, market surveillance, compliance, and enforcement. With regards to this section, the UK proposes an option for the passage of goods into Northern Ireland. One is the UK regulatory route, the EU regulatory route, and both the regulatory routes, where the person can choose either of the routes to trade goods to be compliant. When the goods are sent through the UK regulatory route, they will be subject to only domestic law, whereas in the case of the EU regulatory route the goods will have to abide by separate “agreement law.” This means Article 5(4) of the protocol will be excluded. Under this UK has again given a provision to make new laws as per its own consideration of the protocol.
Third, provision on the European Court. The section targets the provisions agreed upon previously in the EU withdrawal agreement. In the new bill, the UK suggests that it will no longer be bound by the principles and decisions that come from the European Court and shall not refer to it on any matter. It proposes to proceed with any kind of trade dispute through a court or tribunal and shall consider the EU law only when there is a particular necessity to involve the European Court to conclude the trial.
How will the proposed new bill impact?
First, the passing of the bill. Although Truss assured that the bill remains compliant with the law and Johnson has expressed his will to alter the protocol to settle the instability in Northern Ireland, from the suggested proposal, a drastic change to key clauses can be observed. Considering the legal warning issued by the EU and the divide in the house of commons from the recent party gate scandal approval of the bill by the parliament will be challenged.
Second, the EU’s action. The most important articles and sub-clauses of the Northern Ireland Protocol that provides the EU the regulatory authority on keeping a check on goods to legal proceedings seem to be remodeled by the UK in its favour. Going back on an agreement that was signed by the UK and the EU will create tensions leading to legal action and a trade war.
Third, political chaos infused economic instability in Northern Ireland. The start point of the recent tensions is due to the Democratic Unionist party’s opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol and upon the election win of Sinn Fein, the issue escalated. Hence along with the political chaos of the inability to form a government and the UK’s interference in proposing the new bill to alter the protocol, Northern Ireland will also face an economic downturn from the probable trade war between the UK and the EU.
References
“Northern Ireland Protocol Bill,” UK Parliament, 13 June 2022
“NI Protocol: UK reveals plans to ditch parts of EU Brexit deal,” BBC, 14 June 2022
“Northern Ireland Protocol: What did Boris Johnson say?,” BBC, 14 June 2022
UK's Rwanda asylum plan and plane get delayed: Five impending issues
The legal complications and economic implications
On 14 June, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) intervened in UK's Rwanda asylum plan, halting London's first flight carrying asylum seekers to Kigali. The flight was on the runway when the European judges issued a last-minute injunction that stopped the deportation of the four migrants onboard. The ECHR's intervention has also undermined the UK's highest court. This comes as the Supreme Court, the High Court, and the Court of Appeal had already approved in favour of the ruling government. This failed deportation plan has also cost the government about GBP 500,000 due to legal issues. The failure has further highlighted the economic viability of the Rwanda asylum plan. On the same day, over 300 migrants had crossed the border, adding to concerns about the UK's taxpayers' money.
Potential forthcoming issues with the Rwanda asylum plan
First, issues with the European court. The intervention by the European court has sparked outrage among the Tory Members of Parliament. The UK earlier could not leave the ECHR due to it being a part of the EU. However, now under Boris Johnson and BREXIT, the recent issues could revive the UK's plans to leave the ECHR.
Second, long-term economic viability. The government in the UK stated that it would grant Rwanda about EUR 120 million and bear the operational costs and amount for each migrant. The UK pays about EUR 4.7 million per day to accommodate approximately 25,000 asylum seekers within the UK. Thus, it argues that outsourcing the migrants to a third country under the Rwanda deal could reduce the costs. However, Australia has a similar plan set up with Nauru but has had to pay about 10 billion to 3,127 offshore migrants to date, raising questions on the UK's plan's long-term viability.
Third, similar outcome to the Canberra and Port Moresby model. Australia and Papua New Guinea had a similar deal, but in 2017 the Papua New Guinea supreme court ruled the processing center on Manus Island "illegal and unconstitutional." Drawing parallels to the UK-Rwanda deal, there are likely legal issues that can arise as monitoring the day-to-day activities of the migrants would be the responsibility of the government of Rwanda. Issues of sexual abuse against women and children, self-harm, and other issues with the migrants are concerns that need to be addressed.
Fourth, more dissent from within. With the Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby and Prince Charles expressing their displeasure to the plan, speculations of more substantial dissent on the UK's plan with Rwanda. A recent YouGov poll stated that the people in the UK were divided as only 44 per cent supported the policy while 40 per cent opposed it.
Fifth, falsifying the argument of stopping illegal migration. Out of 130 asylum seekers, only four were boarded in the last few hours, while more than 300 migrants crossed the English Channel on the same day. This indicates a possible falsification of the argument that creating a passage through Rwanda would deter gangs and traffickers from stopping the illegal smuggling of asylum seekers. In the end, the traffickers would send the migrants across the channel to allow them to pursue the five-day appealing process failing which they would be sent to Rwanda.
References:
William Booth and Karla Adam, "UK cancels flight to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda after court challenges," The Washington Post, 14 June 2022.
Joseph Lee and Adam Durbin, "Rwanda asylum plan: First removal flight will take off, foreign secretary says," BBC, 14 June 2022
Doug Faulkner, "Rwanda asylum plan: Flight due to depart as legal bids fail," BBC, 15 June 2022
Vasundhara Sirnate, "Explained | The U.K.-Rwanda asylum plan," The Hindu, 19 April 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 111
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 14 June, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Denmark’s journalists that Ukraine had enough ammunition to retaliate against Russia’s forces in Eastern Ukraine. However, he mentioned that Ukraine needed more long-range weapons to precisely target Russia’s federations equipment. Referring to the ‘painful losses’ suffered by Ukraine’s forces in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, he reiterated his request to the West for heavy weapons. On this issue, Ukraine's deputy defence minister, Hanna Malyar said that Kyiv has received only 10 per cent of the weapons they had asked for.
The head of the parliament’s financial committee, Danylo Hetmantsev said that since Russia’s invasion, their revenues cover less than half of their expenditures. The government reportedly collected UAH 101 billion, while their expenditure was around UAH 250 billion. Hetmantsev warned: “We have to borrow $5 billion monthly. If we do not get it, we will have to cut spending.”
On 14 June, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that because of Russia’s invasion, around 2.4 million hectares of winter crops will remain unharvested. The total value of the crops is estimated to be USD 1.43 billion. The ministry also said that the agriculture industry has endured losses worth USD 4.29 billion since the war began.
The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
According to the RIA news agency, Russia’s defence ministry has reported that Kalibr cruise missiles have struck an artillery weapons depot in Chernihiv. Moreover, Russia’s air defence forces also shot down a MiG-29 fighter jet and a Mi-24 helicopter from Ukraine. The ministry reported that their missiles have destroyed an ammunition warehouse in Lviv, which stored weapons sent by NATO allied countries.
On 14 June, Russia’s foreign ministry reported that they had banned 29 members of the UK’s media from entering the country. Moscow has said that this was a response to the banning of Moscow’s media outlets by the UK government. Russia claimed it was also because of “spreading of false information about Russia” and the “anti-Russian” steps taken by the UK's government.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov addressed the issue of the two UK nationals sentenced to death in the Donetsk People’s Republic. He said that the Russia-backed separatist leaders would address the appeal by the UK about the sentences. However, no correspondence has been initiated by the UK to date.
Russia’s army and the Luhansk People’s Republic militia said that they will allow a humanitarian corridor to operate in Svatovo in LPR. This was to facilitate the evacuation of around 500 civilians reportedly taking shelter in the Azot chemical plant.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 14 June, Germany’s defence minister, Christine Lambrecht said that the training of Ukraine’s troops on the German howitzers was nearly complete. She mentioned that the weapons will soon be ready for use in the conflict. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 is one of the most powerful artillery weapons and can target a distance of 40 kilometres. Germany had pledged in May to provide seven self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, but have faced criticism because of the delays in supplying them.
On the same day, the US president, Joe Biden, spoke about the global food crisis in Philadelphia. He said that the US will aid the building of temporary silos along Ukraine’s border to help facilitate easier export. He said: "I'm working closely with our European partners to get 20 million tons of grain locked in Ukraine out onto the market to help bring down food prices… It can't get out through the Black Sea because it'll get blown out of the water."
The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) director Alexis Goosdeel reported on the shifts in smuggling routes for illegal drugs in Europe. He said that due to the war, there has been lesser activity on one of the commonly used heroin trafficking routes out of Afghanistan. Instead, an increase in trafficking has been noted on the borders between Turkey-Greece and Turkey-Bulgaria. Goosdeel said that the war might increase smuggling activity in the Mediterranean region.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia have increased the need to procure more fossil fuels in many countries. At the sixth Austrian world summit, the UN chief, Antonio Guterres referred to the increase in procurement as a hurdle to climate change. He added that the countries would meet their short-term requirements but would have a long-lasting impact on the environment.
References
Samantha Lock and Martin Belam, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 112 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 15 June 2022
“Ukraine has enough ammunition but needs long-range weapons, Zelenskiy says,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
“Ukraine faces budget cut without $5 bln in monthly external aid – parliamentarian,” Reuters, 14 June 202
“Ukraine says 2.4 million hectares of winter crops won't be harvested because of war,” Reuters, 15 June 2022
“Russia strikes weapons depot in Ukraine with cruise missiles, RIA reports,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
“Russia says it has destroyed warehouse for NATO weapons in Ukraine,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Pjotr Sauer, “Russia bans 29 UK journalists, including Guardian correspondents,” The Guardian, 15 June 2022
“Kremlin says separatists would listen to UK appeal on condemned fighters,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
“Russian army to open corridor to let civilians out of Azot plant June 15,” TASS, 14 June 2022
“Howitzers soon to be ready for use in Ukraine, Germany's defense minister says,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Biden touts grain silos on Ukraine border to help exports; Kyiv wants ports open,” Reuters, 15 June 2022
Catarina Demony,“Ukraine war forces switch in drug trafficking routes, EU body warns,” Reuters, 14 June 2022
“Climate change: New fossil fuel funding is 'delusional' says UN chief,” BBC, 14 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
FRANCE
The city council of Grenoble has appealed to Conseil d'État over swimwear policy
On 14 June, the city of Grenoble appealed to the highest administrative court, Conseil d'État over the nationwide ban on “burkini” swimsuits in public pools. Grenoble authorized all swimwear, including burkins, which caused a nationwide controversy in May. The interior minister Gerald Darmanin stated that the city’s swimwear policy is an “unacceptable provation” that undermines France's essential secular principles, which state that religion cannot be used to guide decisions or policies. Although state employees are not permitted to wear religious symbols at work, Grenoble Mayor Eric Piolle believes that this should not prevent users of public services, such as swimming pools, from dressing as they wish. (Robert Plummer, “French burkini ban challenged by Grenoble in top court,” BBC, 14 June 2022)
Three reasons why Macron risks losing the majority in parliamentary elections
On 13 June, POLITICO stated three reasons why the incumbent president Emmanuel Macron should worry about the risk of losing his majority in the National Assembly. First, losing the voters to the right. According to statistics from polling agency Harris Interactive, around nine percent of voters who supported Macron in the first round of the presidential election chose candidates from France's conservative party, Les Républicains. Second, the voters prioritize everyday concerns over foreign policy. Macron and his cabinet have stated that measures against inflation will be a key priority, but his travel to Romania and Moldova just days before the final vote contradicts this. Third, unable to grasp young voters. Young voters prefer 70 years old Mélenchon, who positioned himself five years ago as a young disruptor in a political landscape dominated by traditional parties. (Cornelius Hisch and Giorgio Leali, “Why Macron should fear parliamentary vote, in 3 charts,” POLITICO, 13 June 2022)
ITALY
Trends observed in the Italian parliamentary elections
On 14 June, POLITICO examined the trends of Italy’s parliamentary elections held on 12 June. First, the major opposition party- The Brothers of Italy have risen dramatically and overtaken its far-right rival, the League. The Brothers of Italy are leading the league in Padua, Parma, Verona, and Palermo. Second, the right-wing parties who formed coalitions, their candidates won seats in Genova and L’Aquila. However, In cities where the right did not form coalitions such as Verona and Catanzaro, the elections will run a second round. Third, the incumbent ruling party, the Democrats, have received many votes in major cities such as Verona, Genoa and Palermo. It is observed that the voters preferred the present government amid the rising energy prices and numerous crises in Europe. Fourth, the Five Star Movement Party has further declined in performance since 2017. The party has been attempting to form a coalition with the Democrats. Fifth, the right-wing parties, particularly the League, took a hit for promoting a referendum on justice reforms. The turnout for the referendum saw just one in five voters. (Hannah Roberts, “5 things we learned from Italy’s local elections,” POLITICO, 14 June 2022)
REGIONAL
The EU to resume its aid toward Palestine
On 14 June, the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced to continue to aid Palestine by donating millions of Euros. The EU and other institutions have been donating about EUR 600 million a year until 2020. The EU froze its aid for Palestine over allegations that their textbooks promoted violence and anti-Semitism. The hold-up caused a financial crisis in the state and the authorities were unable to pay salaries to teachers and doctors. The medical facilities were also forced to limit the number of admissions. Leyen after visiting Ramallah stated that the funds will be released rapidly and EUR 25 million will be allotted to improve food security. (David gritten, “European Union to unfreeze aid for Palestinians,” BBC,15 June 2022)
First flight of Rwanda plan canceled
On 14 June, the first flight of the Rwanda plane carrying seven refugees was canceled minutes before take-off citing legal concerns. A judgment from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) in Strasbourg stopped the deportation of an Iraqi refugee who could have experienced “a real risk of irreversible harm” if he had continued on the flight. This led to a series of legal cases and appeals raised by other refugees in London courts; by late night all the passengers were removed from the plane. (Joseph Lee & Doug Faulkner, “Rwanda asylum flight cancelled after legal action,” BBC, 15 June 2022)
ENVIRONMENT
Rising sea levels threaten England's coastal properties
On 14 June, BBC examined a report published in the journal Ocean and Coastal Management, authored by Paul Sayers, an expert on flood and coastal risks. The report states that nearly 200,00 properties in England’s coast may have to be abandoned due to the inevitable rise in sea levels by 2050. The study examines areas where the costs of upgrading defenses may be extremely expensive or technically unattainable. It was discovered that by 2050, assuming a cautious two degree celsius rise in sea level by 2100, up to 160,000 houses may need to be relocated. This is in addition to the 30,000 to 35,000 homes that have previously been recognized as vulnerable.( Jonah Fisher, “Climate change: Rising sea levels threaten 200,000 England properties,” BBC, 15 June 2022)
A new type of marine pollutant was termed as plastitar
On 13 June, scientists at the Canary Institute of Marine Sciences in Spain coined the term Plastitar for the new type of ocean pollutant. The formation of plastitar is a result of oil spills in the ocean, which when evaporates and weathers, it washes ashore as tar balls that stick to the rocky shores. The structure solidifies over time, fusing anything from abandoned fishing equipment to plastic pellets and scraps of polyester and nylon to the tar. Plastitar was discovered along the shorelines of numerous Canary Islands, It was widespread, spanning more than half of the region they were investigating. The occurrence of plastitar was related to the archipelago's location along a major oil tanker shipping route, but the scientists believe it may exist worldwide. (Ashifa kassam, “Plastitar: mix of tar and microplastics is new form of pollution, say scientists,” The Guardian, 13 June 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Meta launches new parental control features on Instagram in the UK
On 14 June, the US firm Meta launched a new feature of parental controls in its video and photo-sharing platform Instagram in the UK. They include the ability to set daily time limitations ranging from 15 minutes to 2 hours, beyond which the app displays a dark screen. Parents may also set up break times for their children and view any accounts they report. A parent dashboard will also be available on all Quest virtual reality headsets worldwide. Parents may now request their children to use the supervision tools, which could previously only be done by the child. Purchase permission, app blocking, and access to the child's friend lists are among the new controls. Another Instagram feature that is being tested is a "nudge" tool that encourages teens to explore different subjects if they are searching for the same thing again and over. (“Instagram launches new parental controls in UK,” BBC, 14 June 2022)
SPORTS
Russian and Belarussian athletes to participate in the US tennis games
On 14 June, the United States Tennis Association (USTA) announced it would allow individual athletes from Russia and Belarus to compete in the 2022 US Open (Tennis) tournament. However, the players can only participate under a neutral flag. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was backed by Belarus, the country was barred from participating in International Tennis Federation (ITF) competitions as well as many other sporting events worldwide. (“US Open: Russian and Belarusian players allowed to compete in New York, BBC, 14 June 2022)