NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Mosa'ab Elshamy/AP Photo/POLITICO
War in Ukraine: Day 115 & 116
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 18 June, Luhansk region’s governor, Serhiy Gaidai said that Russia was sending many reserve troops to Sievierodonetsk from other fronts. He said, it was to gain full control of the city.
On the same day, several other parts of eastern Ukraine saw strikes by Russia’s forces. Kharkiv region’s governor, Oleh Synehubov reported that a large fire had broken out as a result of Russian missiles hitting a gasworks in the Izium district. He added that some other buildings in the vicinity have also been damaged. The head of the regional administration in Novomoskovsk said that a fuel storage department had been hit by Russian missiles too.
Authorities from the Donetsk People’s Republic said that five civilians had been killed by Ukraine’s strikes in the region. 12 others have been injured, as per the announcement made on Telegram. An official in the separatist Luhansk People’s Republic, Rodion Miroshnik reported a huge explosion near Sievierodentsk. He also posted a video of the resultant cloud on his Telegram channel.
In the Zasyadko coal mine in the Donetsk region, 77 miners working had been trapped underground after the territory was shelled following a power outage. However, Reuters reported that they have finally been rescued and no one has been reported injured.
On 18 June, the First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska gave an interview to The Guardian. She spoke about the crises that families in Ukraine are having to go through due to the war. She also elaborated on an initiative that she has launched to get the citizens of Ukraine the psychological support they need. When asked about the initiative, she said: “Ukrainians are not used to seeking help from psychologists. We tend to ignore depression or anxiety. But now we all need to reconsider these stereotypes. And it will take a big information campaign to prove to people that it is not their fault that they need psychological help now. It is necessary to apply for it and there is a place to apply to.”
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that he had visited the frontlines in the Mykolaive region. He gathered intelligence about the on-ground situation and spoke to the soldiers deployed there.
On 19 June, Zelenskyy said that after the European Commission’s support for Ukraine’s EU membership application, he had expected Russia to intensify its attacks. In his nightly address, he said: "Obviously, this week we should expect from Russia an intensification of its hostile activities… And not only against Ukraine but also against other European countries. We are preparing. We are ready. We warn partners.”
Amidst the increasing presence of Russian troops in Sievierodonestsk, Serhiy Haidai said that the Russian narrative that they control the entire city is incorrect. Even though Russia does control the main part, the whole city is not yet under their control.
On 19 June, Ukraine’s parliament voted through two laws. These laws will severely restrict Russian books and music. They will ban the commercial import of books printed in Russia and will also forbid the printing of books by Russian citizens. Playing of music by post-1991 Russian citizens on media or public transport will also be prohibited. This is the latest in a string of attempts to cut cultural ties between the countries.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 19 June, TASS reported on the transfer of surrendered commanders and Ukrainian troops to the detention center in Russia.
It includes the deputy commander of the Azov battalion and commander of “36 Marine Brigade,” and close to 1000 Ukrainian troops from the Azovstal factory. The Russian defence ministry recently claimed 2439 Ukrainian troops and members of the Azov battalion to have surrendered their arms.
On 18 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin in the meeting with the president of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik highlighted the difficulty in conducting the relations and assured the continuity and developments in their relationship.
On 18 June, Russia’s defence ministry spokesperson major general Igor Konashenkov said that Russia has hit 62 Ukraine’s military clusters, M777 howitzers, Mi-24 helicopters, troops, vehicles including three-arm garages, and Su-25 plane. According to general Igor: “Tactical and army aircraft struck 62 clusters of Ukrainian troops and military equipment. As a result of the air strikes three ammunition depots in the districts of Tsapovka, Kharkiv Region, and Lysychansk, Lugansk People's Republic, were destroyed.” Along with this he also reported on attacks on eight UAVs, Bayraktar unmanned assault aerial vehicle in the Luhansk and Kherson region.
Russia’s National Defence Management Centre, the chief reported on evacuation of 29,000 people from risk-prone areas of Ukraine and Donbas. According to the chief, out of the total count, 3,502 were children by 18 June, and on the total count since the invasion, 1,936,911 people have been recorded to be moved into Russia.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 June, EU’s foreign ministers scheduled a meeting for 20 June to discuss the possibility of freeing the grain stuck in Ukraine. Ukraine has had more than 20 million tonnes of wheat stuck in its silos since Russia invaded. Thus, Ukraine has been working with the UN to broker a deal and resume wheat exports from Ukraine and food and fertilizer exports from Russia.
On the same day, the UK announced a change in visa rules for minors coming from Ukraine. Under the new rule, children and teenagers could enter the UK as it was prohibited earlier. The minors would not need to enter with a parent or guardian and could seek refuge directly. During his visit, prime minister Boris Johnson mentioned that the UK could not send its troops as support, but the country would continue aiding it for “the long haul.” He added: “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underlines our core purpose – to protect the UK by being ready to fight and win wars on land.”
Also, on 19 June, Italy’s foreign minister Luigi Di Maio accused his own party of undermining government efforts in supporting Ukraine. Italy has been supplying arms to Ukraine to help it against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In addition, Italy’s energy company Eni announced joining with Qatar Energy to expand its productions as Russia reduced its supplies to Italy.
On 19 June, Germany stated that it plans on adopting measures to ensure a continuous supply of energy for its needs. This comes as Russia has dropped its gas supply, and Berlin had to resort to coal to compensate for the drop in supply. The economy minister suggested using coal power plants to replace gas as a medium of generating electricity.
On the same day, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned that the war in Ukraine could continue “for years.” Nevertheless, he added: “We must not weaken in our support of Ukraine, even if the costs are high - not only in terms of military support but also because of rising energy and food prices.” He further mentioned how modern weapons would also increase Kyiv’s possibility of weakening Russia’s control of the Donbas region.
On 18 June, the Pentagon's defense technology security administration paused the US’ plans of selling four-armed drones to Ukraine. The White House approved the plan; but, objections were raised due to concerns about equipment falling into enemy hands. Instead, the military might swap the current sensor package and radar for less sophisticated tech, but that would still take months to complete. The Pentagon also said it was keen on sending four more rocket launchers to Kyiv as a part of their aid package. This would help Ukraine tackle Russian forces in long-range artillery attacks.
On the same day, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of continuing communication with Putin. He added: “It is absolutely necessary to speak to Putin, and I will continue to do so – as the French president will also.” He further mentioned that communication must continue to help things return to normalcy.
Also, on 18 June, the UK’s prime minister reassured Zelenskyy that London would continue to give Kyiv’ strategic endurance’ to help it defend against Russia. He further mentioned that the UK would work towards freeing up the grain that is being held hostage by Putin.
On 18 June, member of Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency Milorad Dodik met with Putin. The two leaders discussed the war in Ukraine and its spillover on bilateral relations. Russia claimed that the complications were also because of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s support of sanctions.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 18 June, it was reported that India’s coal purchases from Russia, have in the last few weeks. This might be because traders are offering up to 30 per cent of discounts. It was also reported by Reuters after reviewing unpublished government data that from last year, India’s oil purchases from Russia have jumped more than 31-fold to USD 2.2 billion in the last 20 days.
Morocco’s national human rights body, the National Council of Human Rights requested Russia’s authorities to ensure that there is a ‘fair trail’ for the Morrocan citizen. The citizen was sentenced to death by a court in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The president of the council, Amina Bouayach contacted the high commissioner for human rights in the Russian Federation to reiterate the matter.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees said that due to the Ukraine war, there has been an outpouring of support for refugees in Europe. The commission is hopeful that this might shift the attitude with which Europe views refugees as a community. the UN refugee agency's assistant high commissioner, Gillian Triggs, said: "Before Ukraine, Europe was definitely not prepared for this… It was preparing to resist any increase in numbers ... I imagine there will be a rethinking what the future will look like. They must plan for a continued movement of people, particularly in relation to climate."
References
Samantha Lock and Maya Yang, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 117 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 20 June 2022
Maya Yang, Tom Ambrose and Zaina Alibhai, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 116 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 19 June 2022
“In an interview with The Guardian, Olena Zelenska spoke about the situation of Ukrainian families during the war,” President of Ukraine, 18 June 2022
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the frontline positions of the Ukrainian troops in the Mykolaiv region and awarded the defenders,” President of Ukraine, 18 June 2022
“Meeting with member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik,” Kremlin.ru, 18 June 2022
“Russia says its aircraft hit 62 Ukrainian military clusters, destroyed three arms depots,” TASS, 18 June 2022
“Over 29,000 evacuated from Ukraine, Donbass to Russia in past day - Defense Ministry,” TASS, 18 June 2022
“Russia says its aerospace forces struck four M777 howitzer platoons provided by West,” TASS, 18 June 2022
“EU foreign minister to discuss how to free grain stuck in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
“UK ministers will change visa rules and now allow unaccompanied Ukrainian minors to enter the UK, The Times reports,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
“Italian foreign minister Luigi Di Maio on Sunday accused his own Five Star Movement party of undermining government efforts to support Ukraine and Rome’s international reputation,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
“Italian company Eni has joined Qatar Energy’s $28.75bn (£23.5bn) project to expand production – just days after Russia reduced gas supplies to Italy,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
“The UK military must be prepared to “fight in Europe once again”, the new head of the British army has said,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
“Germany will adopt emergency measures to ensure its energy needs are met after the drop in supply of Russian gas, including increased use of coal, the government said Sunday,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
“War in Ukraine could last for years, Nato chief says,” The Guardian Live, 19 June 2022
“The Biden administration’s plan to sell four large, armable drones to Ukraine has been paused on the fear its sophisticated surveillance equipment might fall into enemy hands, according to two people familiar with the matter,” The Guardian Live, 18 June 2022
“U.S. officials weigh doubling the number of rocket launchers sent to Ukraine,” POLITICO, 19 June 2022
“German chancellor Olaf Scholz said that it is “absolutely necessary” for leaders to speak directly with Russian president Vladimir Putin in attempts to end the war,” The Guardian Live, 18 June 2022
“UK prime minister promises to give Ukraine 'strategic endurance' to prevail against Russia,” The Guardian Live, 18 June 2022
“Meeting with Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency Milorad Dodik,” Kremlin.ru, 18 June 2022
“Missiles hit gasworks in eastern Ukraine, regional governor says,” Reuters, 18 June 2022
“Miners rescued after being trapped underground in east Ukraine, local officials say,” Reuters, 18 June 2022
Sudarshan Varadhan and Aftab Ahmed, “Exclusive: India's Russian coal purchases spike despite sanctions,” Reuters, 18 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
BELGIUM
Brussels to formally return remains of assassinated Congo leader in 1961
On 20 June, the Belgium government will officially return the first prime minister of Congo, Patrice Lumumba’s remains to his family at a ceremony in Brussels. Daughter of Lumumba, Juliana Lumumba stated that while the tooth is merely a human part, it also represents a terrible moment in the history of Congo, its former colony; a period that Belgium is still struggling to unravel and understand its dark colonial past. Patrice Lumumba’s democratic and communist values threatened the Belgian government’s interest in Congo during the Cold War. Lumumba was assassinated in January 1961 as a result of this concern. (“Priyanka Shankar, “Patrice Lumumba: Belgium to return remains of assassinated Congo leader,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022
FRANCE
NUPES to form the largest opposition party; National Assembly surpasses expectations in the parliamentary elections
On 19 June, the new left-wing coalition New Popular Union (NUPES) is on track to become the country's largest opposition party in parliament as it is expected to win 141 seats. The bloc is led by far-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon and consists of La France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Greens and the French Communist Party. The Rassemblement National party led by Marine Le Pen is expected to win 90 seats in the parliamentary elections as projected by the pollstor Ipsos surpassing previous projections. However, Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble failed to win an absolute majority, leaving him with no choice but to strike a compromise with the conservative Les Républicains (LR) to remain unrestricted in decision-making. (“French left's coalition gamble pays off in legislative elections but unity challenges loom, France24, 20 June 2022; “'A seismic event': Le Pen's party makes historic breakthrough in French parliament”, France24, 20 June 2022)
SPAIN
The Conservative party takes over Andalusia from the socialists
On 19 June, the conservative People's party won a majority in the regional election in Andalusia. The party got fifty-eight seats in the election, three more than the required seats for the majority. The socialist party, which is in power nationally, lost its prominence in Andalusia in this election as the right-wing parties are overtaking it. It is predicted the same result in next year's national election. For the national election, the People's party is set to join hands with the far-right Vox party although it won the regional election without any help. Juanma Moreno, the People's Party leader in Andalusia called on voters to allow him to govern solitarily. (Ashifa Kassam, “Spain: conservative People's party wins unprecedented majority in Andalucía,” The Guardian, 19 June 2022)
TURKEY
Women’s activist group awaits courts verdict on unlawful withdrawal from Istanbul Convention
On 19 June, Women's rights organizations are eagerly following two court verdicts in Turkey concerning a femicide case and the legitimacy of the country's departure from a fundamental accord against gender-based violence. The long-awaited verdict on Pinar Gultekin's assassination comes the same week that Turkey's highest administrative court, the Council of State, is expected to issue its final decision on Ankara’s withdrawal from the Council of Europe convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence, also known as the Istanbul Convention. Some members of Turkey's conservative government have described the Istanbul Convention as a "trap" that will lead to the destruction of the traditional family. In May 2021, Erdogan issued a presidential decree withdrawing Turkey from the Istanbul Convention, prompting legal challenges from women's rights groups. Lawyer of the Women's Platform for Equality, Goceicek Ayata stated that Turkey may only abrogate the convention by legislative action. (Buru Karakas, “Turkey's femicide problem: All eyes on court verdicts,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022)
REGIONAL
Early heatwaves spark wildfires in part of West Europe
On 18 June, temperatures in a number of Western European countries surpassed 40 degrees Celsius, setting new records for the time of year. The European Commission’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service stated that the risk of forest fires was extremely high in parts of Spain, France, and Italy. On 19 June, in Berlin, firefighters had to evacuate about 20 villages as the forest fires spread rapidly. On the same day a wildfire in central Evia, Greece's second-largest island, raged uncontrollably. As a precaution, authorities ordered the evacuation of the village of Kremastos when the fire came as near as 800 meters to certain residences. (“Europe's June heat wave sparks wildfires warning.” Deutsche Welle, 18 June 2022; “Wildfires force Germany, Greece and Spain to evacuate residents,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022)
Turkey is called upon to limit the influx of refugees to Cyprus
On 18 June, the vice president of the European Commission, Margaritis Schinas urged Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot administration to control the migrant influx in Cyprus during his visit to the island's capital Nicosia. His call comes following the number of asylum seekers landing in Cyprus has risen dramatically, with the majority arriving in the island's separatist northern half. According to the Cypriot administration, 90 per cent of migrants enter the country via Turkey and the separatist Turkish Cypriot north, where a loosely controlled student visa system is in place. The UN buffer zone is then crossed by tens of thousands of refugees seeking shelter in the Greek Cypriot south. Interior Minister Nicos Nouris said Nicosia was working with Brussels to speed up the repatriation of rejected asylum seekers, however, a new migrant-receiving facility would require additional EU funds. (“Cyprus: EU urges Turkish north to help cut migrant arrivals,” Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022)