NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : AP Photo/Valentina Petrova
IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee
Bulgaria: Government loses no-confidence motion in six months
On 22 June, members of the parliament voted for a no-confidence motion against Bulgaria's prime minister Kiril Petkov’s government. Of the 240 seats, 123 voted for the motion, while 116 voted against it. The coalition government comprises Petkov’s centrist We Continue The Change (PP) party, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the anti-establishment There is Such a People’s Party (ITN), and right-wing Democratic Bulgaria (DB). The coalition was voted to power six months ago, in December 2021.
There has been a growing discontentment with Petkov’s governance. His pro-Europe and pro-NATO election mandate had sought to combat the endemic corruption in Bulgaria. However, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the fault lines in the unstable four-party ruling coalition started to emerge.
Issues leading to the no-confidence motion
First, the governments’ consideration for North Macedonia’s EU accession. Bulgaria has been opposing North Macedonia’s membership bid because they want North Macedonia to acknowledge a Bulgarian minority in its constitution. However, Petkov recently indicated that Bulgaria might consider lifting its veto due to pressure from the EU and NATO. The move incited significant disagreement with the coalition, where the There is Such a People’s Party (ITN) felt that Petkov was ignoring Bulgaria’s interests.
Second, Petkov’s strong anti-Russia stance. In February, Petkov fired his defence minister because he had refused to call Russia’s invasion a war. Bulgaria has also supported the EU sanctions against Moscow. Moreover, to show their support for Ukraine, they have also agreed to repair Ukraine’s military machinery. Historically, Bulgaria has been an ally of Moscow. Thus, Petkov’s strong position against Russia has also catalyzed politicians in Bulgaria to promote neutrality.
Third, Bulgaria’s economic crisis was due to Petkov’s fiscal policies. In the budget approved in January 2022, Bulgaria said it would double its capital investment to boost economic growth and living standards. However, the ITN has accused the government of pushing the country towards bankruptcy by raising the new debt. Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member, has also been dealing with rising inflation due to the country’s expansionary policies. Last month, it reached 15.6 per cent, which is the highest increase in consumer prices since 2008.
Fourth, withdrawal of ITN’s support. PP’s coalition partner ITN quit abruptly this month, complaining about fiscal mismanagement and Bulgaria’s stance on North Macedonia. Even though five legislators defected to Petkov’s party, his coalition still fell short of surviving the motion.
What lies ahead after the no-confidence vote?
The no-confidence motion was lodged by the main opposition GERB party. President Rumen Radev will offer the PP party a second chance to propose a government. However, two more attempts will be given to different parties if they fail. However, if those fail, the president will appoint a caretaker government and call for fresh elections. If elections do take place, it will mark the fourth parliamentary election in Bulgaria since April 2021.
Petkov pointed out two significant issues causing his coalition’s troubles: the pro-Russian influence in Bulgaria and the corrupt interests. He said: “It’s a tough few days ahead. We are fighting hard to stay on the right side of history.” He also mentioned that he feared Bulgaria would again take up the “traditional role of a soft state.” Petkov has also rejected any coalition talks with opposition parties in the chamber. Instead, he will seek defections from lawmakers in the parliament to form a new government and avoid early elections.
Implications of the government’s fall
First, the economic burden of conducting parliamentary elections. Given the current fiscal condition of Bulgaria, the fourth election since April 2021 might cause tremendous pressure on Bulgaria’s already stretched economy.
Second, Bulgaria’s relation with the EU. The fall of this government can hinder Bulgaria’s adoption of the Euro, which is scheduled for 2024. Moreover, the current crisis might also delay the EUR 6.3 billion that Bulgaria is supposed to receive as a part of the EU’s Covid-19 Recovery Funds. Petkov’s removal from power will also affect the EU’s efforts to break a deadlock over North Macedonia and Albania’s accession efforts.
Third, concerns about energy supply. The government’s fall can also hinder Bulgaria’s efforts to secure stable natural gas inflows. The country was heavily dependent on Russian gas but had refused to play in Rubles. In April, Russia stopped its gas supply to Bulgaria, and the EU has since supported the country.
References
“Bulgaria faces fresh political turmoil as government loses confidence vote,” Euronews, 23 June 2022
Valentina Petrova and Stephen McGrath, “Bulgarian PM appeals for support ahead of no-confidence vote,” AP News, 22 June 2022
“Bulgaria government collapses after no-confidence vote,” Deutsche Welle, 22 June 2022
Slav Okov and Misha Savic, “Bulgarian Turmoil Deepens as Premier Loses Confidence Vote,” Bloomberg, 22 June 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 121
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the Ground
On 24 June, Ukraine recorded 200-300 war crimes committed by Russian forces daily. Ukraine’s prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova added: “Very often we do not have access to territories or people at all. However, this does not mean that we should not start an investigation. We will always do it.”
On 23 June, Ukraine stated that it had filed a case to end “the mass and gross human rights violations” against Russia at the European court of human rights. Ukraine’s justice ministry said that Russia’s invasion was illegal and wanted to contest it under the European convention on human rights.
Also, on 24 June, Ukraine said it planned to withdraw its troops from the city of Sievierodonetsk. This comes weeks after street fighting and indiscriminate bombing by Russia. Sievierodonetsk’s governor mentioned that this would give Russia a significant advantage in the east.
On the same day, Ukraine’s security agency accused lawmaker Andriy Derkach of being a Russian spy. Derkach was previously accused of similar wrongdoings and pleaded not guilty. However, the State Security Service (SBU) said Derkach had received USD three to four million to fulfill a plan to allow Russia’s vehicles into the city. The US treasury also sanctioned him in September 2020 for influencing the US elections.
On 24 June, Ukraine’s forces informed the US that they needed “fire parity” to counter Russia’s advancement in the eastern region of Luhansk. This comes as Russia’s artillery is at an advantage in the Donbas region and has inflicted more damage on Ukraine’s forces.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 24 June, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the decision to allow Ukraine and Moldova into the EU would have negative consequences. Russia claimed that this amounted to the EU “enslaving” neighboring countries. Zakharova added: “…the European Union has confirmed that it continues to actively exploit the CIS on a geopolitical level, to use it to ‘contain’ Russia.”
On the same day, at a press conference in Azerbaijan, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the EU and NATO were acting similarly to Hitler in World War II. He argued that Hitler, too, had united many numbers under his banner against the Soviet Union, and now the two blocs were doing the same. However, Lavrov added: “The development of its relations with any willing countries does not create threats or risks for us.”
Also, on 24 June, Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov talked about the speculations of Germany potentially nationalizing a section of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. He claimed that these were only hypothetical discussions, and Russia would respond with legal actions if needed.
On 24 June, Russia’s defence ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov stated that 41 soldiers of Ukraine had voluntarily surrendered in the Lugansk region. Konashenkov also said that 2,000 troops were trapped in Gorskoye and Zolotoye areas due to Russia’s encirclement.
On the same day, Peskov talked about the situation in Kaliningrad as Lithuania had blocked its road access to its exclave. Peskov added: “Regretfully, they are not our partners any longer, they are our opponents now.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 24 June, Washington called out to Moscow to reveal the locations of the US military veterans captured by Russia’s forces. On 23 June, Peskov had mentioned the two military veterans Drueke and Huynh and called them soldiers of fortune. He added that the two soldiers had threatened the lives of the military service members of Russia in the Donbas region.
On the same day, the US announced to send additional military assistance of USD 450 million to Ukraine. The shipments would consist of rocket systems to support Ukraine’s artillery to defend against Russia. White House spokesman John Kirby said: “This package contains weapons and equipment, including new High Mobility Artillery Rocket systems.” This would bring the US military contributions to USD 6.1 billion.
On 24 June, UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson said that London was willing to assist Ukraine in de-mining the southern coasts. Johnson also extended the UK’s help to move millions of tonnes of grain stuck in the country. He added: “There is a job of work to be done. We are working with the Turks and other European friends and allies to see what we can do.”
On the same day, the UK announced a ban on exporting jet fuel and banknotes to Russia. In addition, it had updated the list of banned exported goods and prohibitions on using Sterling or EURO banknotes in Russia.
Also, on 24 June, after the EU granted Ukraine and Moldova as candidates for membership, European council president Charles Michel called it “a historic moment.” However, the EU’s commission has still put forward seven key reforms for Ukraine to fulfill by the end of this year to be a member of the EU. The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine warOn 24 June, UNESCO said that 150 cultural sites in Ukraine were destroyed or damaged due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. UNESCO’s director-general Audrey Azoulay said: “I reiterate my call for the respect of international humanitarian law, in particular the Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict.”
Also, on 24 June, the IAEA raised concerns for its staff in Ukraine’s power plant as Russia had restricted the agency’s access to the Zaporizhzhia plant. As a result, the IAEA said it wanted to send another mission to check on its staff working under the Russian troops to maintain the nuclear plant’s integrity.
On the same day, The UN’s chief, Antonio Guterres, announced his opposition to Russia being excluded from the UN ocean conference. Guterres argued that Russia was an active contributor to pollution, which is why it should also participate in solving the problems.
On 24 June, Guterres also stated about a “real risk” of multiple famines this year. At a meeting in Berlin, he mentioned that the world would face an unprecedented global hunger crisis due to climate disruption, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the deeply unequal recovery.
References
“Ukraine is recording 200-300 war crimes committed by Russian forces on Ukrainian territory everyday, Ukrinform reports,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
“Ukraine, in symbolic move, files European court case against Russia,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
Max Hunder and Tom Balmforth, “Ukraine set to quit ruined Sievierodonetsk as Russians close in,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
“Ukraine accuses U.S.-sanctioned lawmaker of working for Russia,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
“Ukraine needs 'fire parity' with Russia to defend Luhansk region, top general says,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
“Russia says EU candidate status for Ukraine, Moldova will have negative consequences,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
“Europe’s coalition against Russia and Kiev’s EU candidate status: Lavrov in Baku,” TASS, 24 June 2022
“Kremlin mum on reports about Germany nationalizing Nord Stream 2 section,” TASS, 24 June 2022
“Russian army seals off 2,000 Ukrainian troops in Gorskoye-Zolotoye trap, top brass reports,” TASS, 24 June 2022
“Granting EU candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova does not pose risks for Russia — Lavrov,” TASS, 24 June 2022
“Russia full of determination over Kaliningrad situation — Kremlin spokesman,” TASS, 24 June 2022
“US pushing Kremlin to reveal location of veterans captured in Ukraine,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
“The United States is sending additional military assistance to Ukraine, the White House announced on Thursday,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
“UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, has said Britain is willing to assist with de-mining operations off Ukraine’s southern coast and was considering offering insurance to ships to move millions of tonnes of grain stuck in the country,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
“UK government bans export of jet fuel, banknotes to Russia,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
Jorge Liboreiro, “Approved! EU countries endorse Ukraine and Moldova as official candidates to join bloc,” Euronews, 24 June 2022
“Over 150 cultural sites in Ukraine have been partially or totally destroyed, UNESCO announced on Thursday,” The Guardian Live, 24 June 2022
“IAEA voices concern for staff at Ukrainian nuclear plant, demands access,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
Michelle Nichols, “World faces unprecedented global hunger crisis, U.N. chief says,” Reuters, 24 June 2022
“UN chief opposes Russia's exclusion from UN Ocean Conference — agency,” TASS, 24 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
BULGARIA
Bulgaria lifts veto on Northern Macedonia's EU talks
On 24 June, Bulgarian legislators voted in favour of lifting the EU ban on Northern Macedonia's membership. The Bulgarian government had vetoed Northern Macedonia's EU talks from 2020 as there had been bad blood between both nations. This decision came right after prime minister Kiril Petkov's government was overturned by the vote of no-confidence. The Bulgarian lawmakers said that they would stand by their neighbours in joining the EU by acting in the interest of the Western Balkans. The decision was approved by a majority of 170 votes. Sofia pressed Skopje to recognize that their language has Bulgarian roots. They had to acknowledge Bulgarian minorities residing in Northern Macedonia. ("Bulgaria: Lawmakers agree to lift block on North Macedonia EU talks," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022)
GERMANY
Parliament revokes a law that punishes doctors who advertise abortion services
On 24 June, the coalition government voted to scrap the Nazi-era law in paragraph 219a of the German criminal code that criminalizes doctors who advertise their abortion services. According to paragraph 219a of the German Criminal Code, a doctor might be fined or imprisoned for up to two years for publicly "offering, announcing, or advertising" abortion services. Abortion remains to be legally banned in Germany. However, if the pregnancy poses a health risk, as in the case of rape, or if the abortion is performed during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy following mandated counselling, women and doctors do not face the punishments. Minister of family affairs, Lisa Paus stated that the result was a triumph that strengthens women’s right to self-determination in Germany. (Phillip Olterman, “Germany scraps Nazi-era law that barred doctors' abortion ads,” the Guardian, 24 June 2022)
NORWAY
Bow and arrow murderer sentenced to a mental institution by a Norwegian court
On 24 June, a Danish man was sentenced to a mandatory mental institution after he was agreed to be mentally ill during the attack by a Norwegian court. The man had attacked a Norwegian town with knives, a bow, and arrows, killing 5 people in October last year. He pleaded guilty to all charges and was deemed to be mentally ill. He was found to be suffering from chronic paranoid schizophrenia at the time of the attack. He was not held criminally responsible for his actions as both the prosecution and defense agreed that he was not mentally right. The Norwegian court gave a judgment for him to be taken to mental health care for treatment. ("Norway: Bow-and-arrow attacker sentenced to psychiatric care," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022)
SWITZERLAND
Toblerone to set up a new production factory in Slovakia
On 24 June, a famous chocolate company, Toblerone will lose its Switzerland tag as they consider opening a new production line in Slovakia. According to Switzerland law, it cannot call itself a Swiss company as it would not be exclusive to the country after it opens a new factory in Slovakia. The company, which was established by the Tobler family in 1908, has its factory in Bern. Due to increased demand for their triangular chocolate, which was inspired by the Swiss Alps, they have expanded to Slovakia. Mondolez, the owner of Toblerone said that this move would allow the chocolate company to increase its production by many times. The company would no longer describe itself as Swiss but rather originated from Switzerland after it starts the manufacturing process from the new factory in 2023. ("Toblerone chocolate to lose 'Switzerland' tag," Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022)
THE UK
Boris Johnson says to listen and learn after his party faces two by-election losses
On 25 June, prime minister Boris Johnson of the UK commented on the recent by-election losses faced by his Conservative Party. The party lost its Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton to the Liberal Democrats and Wakefield to the Labour Party. Many of Johnson's MPs request a change in leadership as they blame him for the losses, while the others backed him up. Johnson said that the current rise in the cost of living issue is the reason for the request for a change of leadership as the people blame governments for any inconveniences. He further talked about the defeat in a press conference in Kigali, Rwanda, stating that they have got to listen and learn from their mistakes. He said that he would focus on delivering for the country. Many of his MPs support his leadership, however, few oppose him and ask for resetting the leader. According to Johnson, two by-election losses should not affect the government and is not his fault. (Kate Whannel, "Boris Johnson admits by-election results 'not brilliant' but vows to go on," BBC News, 25 June 2022)
The government provides excess carbon subsidies to airlines, which contradicts polluters-pay principle
On 24 June, the clean transport campaign group Transport and Environment published a report which found that the UK government offered airlines with roughly a quarter of a billion pounds in free pollution permits in a single year. The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS), which charges polluters for each tonne of carbon dioxide generated, gave airlines 4.4 million free credits in 2021, whereas the sector only returned 3.4 million. As a result, the whole cost of the emissions from the aviation sector was covered by UK taxpayers, with some left over. Because of the government's generosity, the aviation sector could pollute without paying a fee, and airlines were left with 900,000 extra credits that they could either keep or sell. T&E discovered that if airlines had sold their extra credits at the peak of the market last year for GBP 79.20 each, they might have gained GBP 72 million. (Damien Gayle, “UK gave airlines 4.4m free pollution permits in 2021, study finds,” the Guardian, 24 June 2022)
REGIONAL
The EU ought to transfer technology and knowledge to Africa: Report
On 23 June, the European Parliament published a report on the future of African trade relations with the EU. The report advocates the use of trade policy to equalize relations between countries in Africa and the EU. A significant concern raised in the report is the fact that the majority of commodities imported into the EU from Africa are primary goods like food, drink, and energy. Whereas the majority of goods shipped out of the EU are higher-value manufactured goods like machinery and pharmaceuticals. The report states: "Due to the continued direction of the trade from colonial times, wealth is being transferred continuously from the African periphery to the industrialized and increasingly digitized centers." Therefore, the EU is responsible and reasonable to share its technical knowledge with Africa to encourage manufacturing in the region. (Ella Joyner, “European Parliament advocates equalizing EU trade relations with Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
G7’s energy security plans might contradict its climate goals
On 24 June, POLITICO in an article anticipates that ahead of the Group of Seven (G7) summit, a proposal being discussed by the group would suggest utilizing tax money for natural gas projects, which might conflict with the group's climate goals. The group has committed to decreasing its consumption of fossil fuels this decade by signing multiple declarations for a safer climate. However, there will be pressure on the leaders to address both the drive to wean the EU off of its reliance on Russian energy and the soaring cost of energy when they meet in Germany for the summit. If the G7's energy security strategy calls for public funding of international projects, it would conflict with a pledge made by every member of the group at the COP26 climate talks in 2021 to end public support for foreign fossil fuel investments by the end of 2022. (Karl Mathisesen and David M. Herszenhorn, “G7 mulls call for ‘necessary’ public gas investments,” POLITICO, 24 June 2022)