NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Institute for the Study of War/BBC
IN FOCUS
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
Russia’s renewed attack on Kyiv: A change in strategy?
On 26 June, Russia renewed its offensive in Kyiv when four missiles hit the capital. One of the missiles hit residential buildings, killing one person and injuring five. The last attack on Kyiv was on 05 June, when Russia destroyed a factory on the outskirts of the city.
On the same day, the G7 leaders met in Germany for the summit. The main agenda was the war in Ukraine and the resultant necessity to present a united bloc.
Also on the same day, Sievierodonetsk fell to Russia’s forces. It had been under heavy siege for weeks, with significant infrastructural and humanitarian damages. Russia now has control over most of the Donbas region except Lysychansk. The objective of this ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine was to liberate the Donbas. Thus, as expected, Russia’s forces were seen moving towards Lysychansk, to secure the entire region.
The renewed attack on Kyiv: Three explanations
First, warning attacks by Russia. Putin may view the G7 meeting as an anti-Russian grouping. The attacks on Kyiv can therefore be his attempt to show the G7 leaders that he has the power and upper hand in Ukraine. This attack could also be a delayed response to the EU granting candidacy to Ukraine by accepting their membership bid. Moreover, NATO is also supposed to begin its summit in Madrid on 28 June. Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko said that this was a “symbolic attack” to pre-empt the NATO leaders from further uniting against Russia. He also mentioned that the recent attacks were reminiscent of the Russian attacks on Kyiv during the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres's visit to Ukraine.
Second, a distraction tactic. The attack on Kyiv can be seen as an effort to shift the global attention from Sievierodonetsk and the Donbas. This makes it easier for Russia to carry out its ‘operation’ in eastern Ukraine. Russia had said that it will target depots and stores of weapons and ammunition supplied by the West. However, other than striking these depots in the north and west of Ukraine, Russia does not have any immediate military objective in targeting these places.
Third, Putin’s changing strategies. With most of Donbas under its control, Russia will now look into its long-term plan in Ukraine. Even though Russian troops were concentrating only on eastern Ukraine, there have been sporadic attacks on Kyiv, Lviv, and Sumy. This indicates Putin’s going back to the initial strategy to occupy Ukraine's key areas which were under Ukraine's control. Moreover, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov spoke about how the West sending heavy artillery to Ukraine is only intensifying the conflict. While the US objective may be to weaken Russia, in reality, it is only increasing the threat of escalation. With the West’s support still unwavering, this attack on Kyiv and other places in the north and west of Ukraine might be a preview of what is coming next in terms of Russia’s strategy.
References
“Continued arms supplies from US to Ukraine increase threat of further escalation — envoy,” TASS, 28 June 2022
Joe Inwood, “Ukraine war: What Severodonetsk's fall means for the conflict,” BBC News, 27 June 2022
“Russian missiles hit residential buildings in Ukraine’s Kyiv,” Aljazeera, 26 June 2022
“Ukraine: Russian warplanes pound Kyiv after weeks of calm,” Aljazeera, 26 June 2022
Report on the future of EU-Africa trade relations: Four takeaways
On 23 June, the European Parliament advocated a report on the future of African trade relations with the EU published by the Committee on International Trade. The report, which will now be considered by the European Commission (EC), demands that African nations be treated more fairly in their present bilateral trade agreements. Based on pledges of a more fair, respectful, and human-centered trading partnership between the two regions made during the EU-African Union summit in February, the report presents a number of recommendations and motives for future investment to be based in Africa. The report has the recommendations of the Committee on International Trade and additional suggestions by the Committee on Development.
Four takeaways
First, recognition of trade, investment, and environmental sustainability. The EU is yet to recognize the sustainable, and inclusive economic developments of Africa and upon recognition will not only stop with AU but will benefit the entire continent. Which in turn increases the investment policies and helps it to achieve the set goals under the UN's Agenda 2030.
Second, call for the transfer of technology and knowledge. Since colonial times wealth has continuously flowed from the African periphery to the industrialized regions in Europe. Africa has only been supplying raw materials and primary goods, the lack of wealth creation through industries has resulted in unemployment and poverty in the region. Therefore, the report stresses how the EU has to be fair and responsible to share its technical expertise with Africa to promote manufacturing in the continent. The Committee on Development suggested a good transition towards a partnership on an equal footing, founded on reciprocity and mutual benefit, which goes beyond a “donor-recipient relationship” and allows both parties to pursue their own interests while also identifying potential areas of cooperation. It further insists that the EU must attempt to offer technical assistance to prevent EU trade standards from being perceived as non-tariff trade obstacles.
Third, call for joint decision-making. If the critical decisions are taken together by the two unions, it will provide each party a sense of empowerment over the process of deciding what the goals of the commercial and investment policies should be. To restructure the economy to be self-reliant calls for increased involvement of civil society, including business, industrialists, and, in particular, the small and medium enterprises.
Fourth, The need for evaluation of the impact of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA)s. The Committee on Development called on the EU to increase African nations' capacity to take advantage of trade opportunities in the fields of food security, health care, and poverty alleviation through EPAs. It further calls for the inclusion of human rights, labor, and environmental mechanisms in trade and sustainable development chapters to be negotiated in the present and future EPAs. In addition, it affirms the need to assess the impact of how EPAs and trade agreements affect African nations, intra-African markets, and local economies, as well as the requirement that they are compatible with the SDGs.
References
Ella Joyner, “European Parliament advocates equalizing EU trade relations with Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 24 June 2022
Helmut Scholz, “Report on the future of EU- Africa trade relations,” European Parliament, 03 June 202
War in Ukraine: Day 124
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the Ground
On 27 June, Luhansk oblast's governor, Serhiy Gaidai, said that Russia had targeted civilians in the region who were collecting water from a tank. The missile attack killed eight civilians and wounded at least 21 in the Lysychansk region. Gaidai stated that Russia had "aimed at the crowd."
On the same day, Russia attacked a shopping center in Kremenchuk. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that more than 1,000 civilians were at the shopping center at the time of the attack. Zelenskyy added: "It is impossible to even imagine the number of victims… It's useless to hope for decency and humanity from Russia," Officials have updated the death toll to 11 and the wounded to 50. Central Poltava region's governor Dmytro Lunin called the missile strikes "an act of terrorism against civilians."
Also, on 27 June, Zelenskyy urged the G7 not to let the conflict drag on to winter. He spoke to the leaders via a video link and asked for more sanctions against Russia. Addressing the G7 countries, Zelenskyy said: "if Ukraine wins, you all win." Zelenskyy also mentioned the indiscriminate missile strikes by Russia.
On 27 June, Mariupol steelworks owner Rinat Akhmetov said he had filed a lawsuit against Russia. Akhmetov sued Russia at the European court of human rights under "grievous violations of his property rights." He also seeks a court order to prevent Russia from blockading, looting, diverting, and destructing grain and steel in his steel plant.
On the same day, Lysychansk's governor Serhai Haidai called for civilians to evacuate the region as the situation was deteriorating. He added: "Save yourself and your loved ones. Take care of the children. Be sure that you will be taken care of in the evacuation cities on the territory of Ukraine." Russia's shelling in Kharkiv also killed four people and wounded 19; however, Russia said it denied targeting civilians.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 27 June, Russia said it would invest USD 14.5 billion to boost its domestic aircraft production. This would help Russia to boost its share of domestically manufactured aircraft amid sanctions from the West. The aviation industry has been in a crisis since the West imposed sanctions, as its profitable routes to Europe and the US were now halted.
On the same day, TASS reported how Russia had failed to pay its USD 100 million in Russian Eurobond coupons that had expired. However, the finance ministry denied any default. It said: "In accordance with issuing documentation for mentioned issues, the event of default is the failure to pay on the part of the debtor, but the payment was made in advance - on 20 May, 2022."
The default was caused by a third party involved. Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added: "These allegations of a default are absolutely unjustified, because back in May, the obligatory payment in the currency was fulfilled, and the fact that Euroclear withheld this money, or did not deliver it to the recipients is no longer our problem."
Also, on 27 June, president Vladimir Putin said he had accepted Indonesia's invitation to participate in the G20 meetings. This comes as Indonesia's president Joko Widodo had urged Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict.
On 27 June, Russia said it was planning to transfer Iskander-M missile systems to Belarus, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. In a meeting with President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin offered to retrofit the Sukhoi Su-25s in service with the Belarusian army.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 27 June, France's president Emmanuel Macron said it denounced Russia's missile strikes on the shopping center in Kremenchuk. Macron called it an "abomination." France's foreign ministry also said that Russia would have to answer for its missile strikes that killed civilians in the shopping center.
On the same day, Canada's president Justin Trudeau announced more sanctions and measures against Russia. Canada has imposed a ban on exporting technologies to Russia that could help Moscow's defense manufacturing capability. Trudeau also said Canada plans to impose sanctions against Russian state-sponsored disinformation and propaganda agents and entities.
On 27 June, Moldova's president expressed gratitude to the EU for accepting the country as a membership candidate. President Maia Sandu also visited Kyiv and Bucha. She added: "Ukraine and Moldova need help. We want this war to stop, this Russian aggression against Ukraine to be stopped as soon as possible. We want to stay part of the free world."
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 27 June, the G7 said it stands with Ukraine; they also announced increasing sanctions targeting Russia's finances and oil. The announcement came after Zelenskyy addressed the G7 in a video conference and urged the countries to give Ukraine more weapons and air defense systems. The G7 released a joint statement: "We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes."
On the same day, the growing relations between Russia and China amid the war in Ukraine has made NATO introduce Beijing as a concern in its strategies. Russia has been deepening its ties with China to circumvent sanctions and tackle the West's growing push to isolate Moscow.
Also, on 27 June, regarding Ukraine, the UN stated that it was concerned about the air strikes and shelling. The UN also expressed the challenges in giving humanitarian aid to the civilians trapped in the Donbas region.
References
“At least 8 civilians killed in Lysychansk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“Officials have updated the death toll for the Russian missile strike on the shopping centre in Kremenchuk to 11,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“Missile strike hits busy shopping centre in Kremenchuk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 “Zelenskiy tells G7 not to let Ukraine conflict 'drag on over winter,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“Owner of Mariupol steelworks files lawsuit against Russia,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022 Patrick Wintour, “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with G7 leaders,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“Regional governor calls for civilians to evacuate Lysychansk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“Russian shelling in Kharkiv kills four, says governor,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“Kremlin calls out default claims as unlawful, payment in foreign currency made back in May,” TASS, 27 June 2022
“Press review: Russia to help beef up Belarus’ nukes and has NATO dashed Kiev’s hopes,” TASS, 27 June 2022
“Moscow confirms Putin’s participation in G20 summit, details are being finalized — Kremlin,” TASS, 27 June 2022
"Moscow honors commitments, despite West’s ploys to drive Russia into ‘default’," TASS, 27 June 2022
“Russia to spend $14.5 billion to boost local aircraft production amid sanctions,” Reuters, 27 June 2022
“Moldova’s president said during a visit to Ukraine that her country was “fragile and vulnerable” and needed help to remain “part of the free world,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“French President Emmanuel Macron has denounced Russia’s deadly strike on a shopping centre in Kremenchuk,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“France: Russia must answer for deadly missile strike,” The Guardian Live, 27 June 2022
“Canada to impose additional sanctions, ban tech export to Russia -statement,” Reuters, 27 June 2022
“Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General,” UN, 27 June 2022
“Nato diplomats are wrestling over how to tackle China’s deepening ties with Russia,” Al Jazeera, 27 June 2022
Angelo Amante and John Irish, “G7 to stand with Ukraine 'for as long as it takes,” Reuters, 27 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
BULGARIA
Prime minister Kiril Petkov formally resigns after losing a no-confidence vote
On 27 June, Bulgaria's prime minister Kiril Petkov formally resigned after his coalition government lost the vote of no confidence. The four-party coalition government collapsed after one split from the group due to differences in ideologies. Petkov was charged with firming a new cabinet by the president of Bulgaria. He was accused of mismanaging the state's budget. He has a period of one week to form a new majority government or else a new election will be conducted in Bulgaria, which would be the fourth in eighteen months. ("Bulgarian Prime Minister Petkov resigns after losing confidence vote," euronews, 27 June 2022)
POLAND
Poland is set to become a regional gas hub with its LNG terminal
On 24 June, Poland's biggest liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal at Swinoujscie will become crucial in supplying energy to Central and East Europe. The Lech Kaczynski terminal will be major replacement to the Russian gas imports to Poland which were halted by Gazprom in April. LNG is procured from all over the world, primarily from Qatar, the US, and Norway. The terminal has brought forth a lot of scope for tourism in the town and the local businesses benefit from people visiting the terminal. Poland is working on becoming a regional gas hub by delivering surplus gas to neighbouring countries through interconnectors. Poland's active role in the gas terminal will help the EU to phase out Russian oil and gas imports. Poland may become a gas hub for Central, East Europe, and even West Europe in the time of energy crisis. (Jo Harper, "The small seaport crucial for Europe's energy future," BBC News, 24 June 2022)
SCOTLAND
Nicola Sturgeon to push forward with a second independence referendum for Scotland
On 28 June, Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon is planning to hold a second independence referendum. The UK government opposed the referendum stating that the present time is not good to discuss independence while other issues that are much more important are at hand. Sturgeon alleges that the process would be done democratically and is sure of her victory. She wants to proceed with the referendum even without the UK government agreeing to the section 30 order. Many criticize her actions as a way to distract from the failures of her party, the SNP. Meanwhile, issues like the cost of living crisis, and energy price crisis are ignored and that is looming over the heads of the people of Scotland. ("Nicola Sturgeon to set out plan for second independence referendum," BBC News, 28 June 2022)
THE UK
MPs support the bill to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland protocol
On 27 June, a bill to override parts of the Northern Ireland protocol passed the initial approval from the house of commons. This controversial bill will create a new layer of tension between the UK and the EU. Upon which the EU has taken legal action against the UK for breaching the post-Brexit deal. Former prime minister Theresa May said that this bill will besmirch the reputation of the country. Almost all of the ruling conservatives and MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party(DUP) voted for the bill leading to a majority of 74 votes. British foreign secretary Liz Truss said that the UK had no option but to choose this way because the EU was not flexible with the deal. The passing of the bill will lead to a resumption of power-sharing in Belfast which was paused since May's assembly elections due to the NI protocol issue. The move was argued to be legal as it was committed to preserving Northern Ireland's 1998 Belfast/Good Friday peace agreement. This would look bad for the UK as it is seen as breaking an obligation. ("Move to override Brexit deal gets initial backing from MPs," BBC News, 28 June 2022)
GEOLOGY
Oldest wildfire discovered in South Wales
On 27 June, evidence of the oldest wildfire was discovered in South Wales where the charred remnants were found trapped under ancient and archaic mudstones. The wildfire was traced back to 430 million years ago during the Silurian period of the Earth. The source of the charcoal is said to be giant fungi that were abundant in the Silurian period. These giant fungi were called Prototaxites and each was up to eight meters in height and about a meter in diameter. They were vertical phallic structures that weighed up to 10 metric tonnes. The instinctive marks left by the wildfire indicate that it was huge and widespread. The fossils also show us that the concentration of oxygen was less than what it is today. (Jonathan Amos, "Earliest evidence of wildfire found in Wales," BBC News, 27 June 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
General Secretary Anotonio Guterres presents opening speech at ocean conference in Lisbon
On 27 June, the UN General Secretary António Guterres spoke at the opening of the organization's ocean conference that took place in Lisbon. He spoke about how the ocean needs to be saved. He raised concerns over the rising sea level, ocean heating, acidification, and plastic pollution in the largest water bodies. He further went on to say that the oceans are being exploited and that the member nations should concern themselves with the protection of the high seas. The harm done to oceans may have adverse effects on small nations and coastal cities and may even cause flooding. Increased fishing and marine pollution have led to a reduction in the population of marine lifeforms. He also talked about dumping wastewater and plastic in the ocean and how it degrades the marine ecology. He called for global awareness of marine pollution and to raise global health. The draft declaration focuses on ways to achieve SDG 14 and improve the health of the ocean. The final draft of the political declaration is expected to be adopted by the end of the conference. (Karen McVeigh, "UN head declares ‘ocean emergency’ as global leaders gather in Lisbon," the Guardian, 26 June 2022)