NIAS Area Studies
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Boris Johnson EXITS
The Unravelling of UK leadership in crisis
By Sourina Bej
On 07 July, another prime minister in the United Kingdom bites the dust. It was not the tussle over “getting Brexit done” like his predecessor Theresa May, rather in disrespecting one’s code of political conduct, that prime minister Boris Johnson stepped down as party leader. He will however continue as the prime minister till a new leader is elected from within the conservative party. The outgoing leader said, “To you the British public… I want you to know how sad I am to be giving up the best job in the world. But them’s the breaks.” In a bit of a sleepless gripping political drama for Johnson, it is the last 48 hours, 44 cabinet resignations and one sacking that determined the resignation. A month ago, the pushout of Johnson started after controversies over Downing Street parties breaking the COVID-19 protocol tainted the party’s rules on public accountability. The Tory MPs called a confidence vote in the prime minister, which he won, yet 41 per cent of parliamentary Tories wanted him out. Under party rules, his win stalled the resignation for 12 months, thus setting the ball rolling for cabinet resignations.
Unboxing the end of Boris Johnson
The political editor of the Guardian, Heather Stewart summarise the essence behind Johnson’s exit in a line: “Boris Johnson’s unrepentant resignation speech was delivered with trademark bullishness.” Such is the bitterness against Boris Johnson, once revered as the “Tory man” taking conservatives through their biggest win in 2019. What changed and made the party pull the rug from under Boris Johnson?
First, in courting scandals, Partygate merely provided a plausible reason for the party to disassociate from Johnson. After Sue Gray’s report on the 10 Downing Street pandemic parties, the prime minister was fined, he lost a string of byelections and appointed an alleged sexual assaulter as his deputy chief whip which appalled his own ministers who backed him in 2019. In the three years in office, Johnson’s conduct on misleading the press, lying to his own party members with an unapologetic hint, became a crucial violation of party, political and public code of conduct. With Johnson, there was no rest to the threat of scandals: whether it was his friendship with Lord Lebedev, a Russian oligarch or bigger than public office personal relationship with the businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri.
Second, the conservative party’s losing political ground. What the Johnson’s scandals did to the party was more than an image dissolution rather it incapacitated the party machinery from looking into crucial issues such economic inequalities and retaining public mandate. Four prime ministers in six years: the speed with which the conservative party replaced and elected its leaders, raises questions on the stability off the party machinery itself. “Getting Brexit done” had figuratively impaired the Tory consensus and the political trust was further eroding when Boris Johnson took a hardline approach with a unilateral offsetting of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Clear evidence that party had been relying more on one leader over its own mandate emerged through the electoral loss in Devon. One of the strong argument among many Tory MPs for getting rid of Johnson is his unpopularity, yet it could also be argued that underneath a self-sabotaging leader, conservatives has also subterfuged their lack of new vision for policy change.
Last, lack of policy vision and dwindling public opinion could be observed in the post Brexit realities when inflation, food shortages and healthcare crisis emerged much before the war pushed the energy prices throughout Europe. The only big economic measures from the party was in the last few months after former chancellor to the exchequer, Rishi Sunak committed £15bn. Some of the party’s ideas to cut the cost of living such as windfall tax had been proposed by the labour party before. The Brexit had brought back queues, and wastage of harvest leading voters to target their anger at the leader representing the party.
Troubled political landscape ahead
The new leader of the conservative party will not only have to provide an alternative to the party but also to the people and the region itself. Starting with an introspection of the party pathways, conservatives will have to bring back the Number 10 operation with full political trust. For the new leader, the support of the backbencher committee, accountability in the PMQ sessions and honest interaction with the press could probably salvage the inner rebellion and the Conservative’s fear of a rout in the local elections. Secondly, getting Brexit done just not in rhetoric will be a harder negotiating path yet to be foreseen. The Northern Ireland protocol bill could have had sabotaged the Good Friday agreement, but the questions that still remains is how to bring the electoral representation back in the province? With Boris Johnson still as the prime minister and a vivid breakdown of the party trust, the next six weeks will be a crucial test for democratic values in the Westminister.
War in Ukraine: Day 134
By Emmanuel Selva Royan and Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 07 July, US senators Lindsey Graham of the Republican party and Richard Blumenthal of the Democratic Party visited Kyiv to meet president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They discussed the developments on the front lines, air defence system in Ukraine, and educational sector.
On 07 July, a disputed cargo ship containing alleged Ukrainian food grains was expected to be returned to the Russian territorial waters after being detained by Turkey for four days. The ship named Zhibek Zholy was released from Karasu port in Turkey's part of the Black Sea after four days of its detainment on 05 July 2022. Previously Ukraine has asked Turkey to seize the ship, which Turkey ignored. Later the Ukraine foreign ministry criticized for such act and Turkey’s spokesperson countered stating that they found no such evidence of Ukraine food grain in the investigation.
On the same day, Ukraine Armed Forces agents found that the military officials in the Russian had cremated officers and soldiers who had died in action in the occupied city of Kherson. The UAF discovered charred remains of people in the city who were burnt which was difficult to identify. It believes that the Russians had been burning its dead military personnel, killed in the war to hide the number of casualties. The soldiers and officers who were killed during the UAF bombardments were reported missing. They are suspected to be the ones burnt by the Russian forces. The information on the losses suffered by the Russian army in Ukraine is kept a secret from the Russian public.
The Ukraine deputy prime minister and the minister for digital transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov said in a telegram post that the first batch of unmanned aerial force has been sent to the front lines. These drones form part of the Army of Drone project, which contains the systematic purchase of drones, repair and faster replacement and pilot training programs.
Ukrinform reported that 21 sorties were held by the Ukrainian National Guard helicopters on the Russian forces and the National Guard of Ukraine reported on detaining 354 spies and 16,515 people who have committed administrative and criminal offences over to the security service of Ukraine.
On 07 July, defence deputy minister Hanna Maliar of Ukraine said in a briefing that the Russian was waging a war of attrition to seize full control over the Luhansk region. Russia’s ultimate goal is to reach the geographical border of the Donetsk region. Maliar said that the most challenging situation is around Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut on the same day. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian troops are preventing the Kyiv forces from advancing toward the state border in the directions of Kharkiv and Balakliia. They also observed that the Russian forces are attempting to conduct offensive operations that surround the units of armed forces of Ukraine in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.
Also on 07 July, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine expressed his sympathy for the resignation of the UK prime minister Boris Johnson over a phone conversation. He was thankful to prime minister Johnson and the UK for the constant support that they have shown toward Ukraine in the war.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 07 July, the defence ministry of Russia reported destroying of two US made high mobility artillery rocket systems. Russia for the first time employed its advanced electromagnetic weapon Stupor jams against unmanned aerial vehicles. The ministry also reported that the US department of defence threat deduction office extracted a collection of microorganisms from Ukraine and organized inspections to assess the biological situation. The US held projects that studied "..highly dangerous and economically significant infections" that can worsen the epidemiological situation.
On 06 July, president Vladimir Putin addressed the leaders of the State Duma and heads of factions of political parties of the Federal Assembly. In the address he thanked the parties for organizing humanitarian support of the residents of Donbass and stated his work towards improving the basic sectors of the Russian economy and the workforce of enterprises.
On 07 July, president Putin met the winners of the Leaders of Russia national management competition, which was held between 26 - 29 May in Moscow. At the meeting he stated that the people of Donbass were subject to isolation and genocide for the past eight years and pledged that Russia will now completely restore living conditions in the Luhansk region. Furthermore, he agreed to a proposal put forward by the head of the party, Sergei Mironov: “Fair Russia- For the Truth,” to equate the military of Donetsk and Luhansk with the ranks of Russian forces.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 05 July, NATO’s member countries have fastened the ratification of Sweden and Finland’s accession protocols. Canada was the first to sign the ratification of the document. The legislatures of all the 30 member countries will have to approve the proposal, this process may take up many months. Turkey’s communication director Farettin Altun stated that Ankara has “specific expectations” from Sweden to sign the ratification document. He mentioned that the memorandum of understanding signed with Sweden and Finland in June shall not be perceived as Ankara’s vote for the countries to join NATO.
On 07 July, Finland’s parliament passed a legislation to amend the Border Guard Act. It will facilitate the construction of stronger fences on its 1300-kilometre-long border with Russia. The decision comes in light of Finland starting the process of joining the NATO this week. Currently, Finland’s borders are marked by light wooden fences, mainly to keep livestock from wandering across. The director of the Finnish border guards’ legal division, Sanna Palo, said: “What we are aiming to build now is a sturdy fence with a real barrier effect… In all likelihood the fence will not cover the entire eastern border but will be targeted at locations considered to be the most important.”
On 07 July, the Polish Economic Institute reported that 94 per cent of its country's business have experienced the negative implications of the war in Ukraine. The think tank stated that the firms which conducted business with eastern markets such as Russia, Belarus and Ukraine will have to completely restructure its operations. The EU’s statistical office, Eurostat reported that Poland received and sheltered the highest number of Ukrainian refugees among the bloc’s member states. Poland received 96,085 refugees, followed by Romania at 20,435 and Bulgaria with 19,860.
On the same day, the Lithuania defence minister Arvydas Anusauskas stated that the government will be transferring a crowdfunded combat drone - Bayraktar TB2 to Ukraine. The people raised around EUR six million for the drone. However, the manufacturer of the drone decided to donate it, therefore the money will be spent to arm the drone. The remaining funds will be allocated towards humanitarian aid.
On 07 July, the US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumental presented Zelenskyy with a draft resolution to designate Russia as “A state sponsor of terrorism.” Russia would be the fifth country the US has designated as a state sponsor of terrorisim following Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Syria. Braham and Blumenthal had visited Borodyanka and Bucha after the meeting. The US state department expressed disappointment that Indonesia has invited Russia to the upcoming G20 summit. They mentioned that with Russia’s participation the meeting would be inconclusive regarding Ukraine.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 07 July, the Ukrainians in Canada have written to the prime minister Justin Trudeau to refrain from returning a turbine to Moscow, amid sanctions. The turbine used for transporting petroleum by Gazprom was sent to be serviced in Canada by Siemens Energy. The president of Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC), Alexandra Chyczij stated that: “Any waiver of Canadian sanctions would be viewed as a capitulation to Russian blackmail and energy terrorism, and would only serve to embolden the Russian terrorist state.”
On 07 July, foreign ministers of Russia and China were seen to be meeting privately before the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Bali to discuss strategic cooperation between the nations amidst pressure from the West. Foreign ministers Sergey Lavrov and Wangi Yi from Chin talked to strengthen the relations and work amidst the economic sanctions by the West. Lavrov is seeing the G20 meeting as an opportunity to convince other nations about the actions of Russia against Ukraine as a special military operation. Meanwhile, the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, wants to focus on the food crisis but also is not willing to accept any reasons put forward by Russia for starting the war against Ukraine.
In Ethiopia, the fuel subsidies have been lifted due to the rise in energy prices. The Ukraine war has affected global energy prices and in turn, increases the rate of fuels in Ethiopia. This has given rise to the country facing an increase in inflation.
The director of the UN World Food Programme, Patrick Beasley, has warned that a hunger catastrophe will emerge within the next two years, resulting in global political turmoil. He stated that: “A staggering 50 million people in 45 countries are now just one step from famine.” He also urged for the quick release of the 25 million tonnes trapped Ukrainian grains. According to Beasley, the world's food markets are in a state of chaos due to rising prices, export restrictions, and shortages of staple items that extend well beyond Ukraine's borders. Where African, Middle Eastern, Asian, and even Latin American nations are facing the implications of this conflict.
References
"Ukraine military intelligence: Russian invaders in Kherson burning military dead to conceal losses," Kyiv Post, 07 July 2022
"First UAVs from Ukraine's Army of Drones already sent to front line," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Ukraine's National Guard helicopters made 21 sorties against enemy troops over past week," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Defense ministry: Enemy attempts to reach Donetsk Region’s borders," Ukrinform, 07 July 2022
"Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with Boris Johnson," President.gov.au, 07 July 2022
"President met with US Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal," President.gov.au, 07 July 2022
“Russia says it destroyed American HIMARS in Ukraine,” TASS, 07 July 2022
“Russia uses Stupor anti-drone guns in Ukraine for first time, TASS, 07 July 2022
“DPR embassy staff begin work in Russia, top diplomat says,” TASS, 07 July 2022
Upper house to review DPR, LPR bid to join Russia if referendums take place, says speaker,” TASS, 07 July 2022
“Donbass residents subjected to isolation, genocide for eight years — Putin,” TASS, 07 July 2022
“Meeting with the leadership of the State Duma and heads of factions,” Kremlin.ru, 07 July 2022
“Putin agreed to equate the military DPR and LPR to the status of Russian counterparts,” Lenta.ru, 07 July 2022
“The Ministry of Defense announced the collection of microorganisms exported by the Americans from Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 07 July 2022
“Lithuania to transfer a crowdfunded Bayraktar drone to Ukraine on Wednesday,” Reuters, 07 July 2022
“Finland passes law to bolster border fence with Russia,” The Guardian, 07 July 2022
“Ukrainian diaspora urges Trudeau not to return turbine to Russia,” The Guardian, 07 July 2022“UN warns of 'looming hunger catastrophe' due to Russian blockade,” The Guardian, 08 July 2022
"Russian FM looks to China for greater cooperation under pressure from the West," scmp, 07 July 2022
"As G20 set to meet with Russia and China on its mind, Bali hopes for tourism boost," scmp, 07 July 2022
"Worry and frustration in Ethiopia as subsidies cut and fuel prices soar," africanews, 06 July 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
THE UK
World reacts to Boris Johnson’s resignation a leader of the conservative party
On 07 July, UK prime minister Boris Johnson resigned as the leader of the Conservative Party. Johnson’s resignation comes on the back of a turbulent three years, numerous scandals, a narrowly survived no-confidence motion and dozens of his ministers quitting his government. US president Biden did not mention the outgoing Johnson, but said that the US and the UK are the “closest of allies” and that he will want to continue “close cooperation with the government.” The EU and UK have recently had a tense relation due to Johnson and his endorsement for Brexit. Regarding the departure of Johnson, EU negotiator for Brexit Michel Barnier, tweeted " May it be more constructive, more respectful of commitments made, in particular regarding peace and stability in Northern Ireland…” While, Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy said that the accepted the news with sadness and that the Ukrainian society had its sympathies for Johnson, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov welcomed the news and hoped that “more professional people who can make decisions through dialogue will come to power.” Irish prime minister Micheal Martin referred to the recent strained relation between Ireland and the UK and said: “We have now an opportunity to return to the true spirit of partnership and mutual respect that is needed to underpin the gains of the Good Friday Agreement." (“Factbox: Reaction to Boris Johnson's resignation,” Reuters, 07 July 2022; Alistair Smout, “Bye bye Boris: UK PM Johnson bows out with regrets but no apologies,” Reuters, 07 July 2022)
REGIONAL
Abortion to be a basic right for the EU
On 07 July, the European parliament voted in favour of a resolution endorsing abortion as a basic right. While 324 members voted in favour, 155 voted against and 38 were absent. The resolution adds "everyone has the right to safe and legal abortion" to the charter of EU’s fundamental rights. This is in response to the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which granted women the right to have safe and legal abortions. European Equality Commissioner Helena Dalli said the votes were "a reminder that hard-won rights cannot be taken as a given, anywhere,” and that the EU “should push forward, not backward.” However, the vote was nonbinding, and all the 27 member states will have to approve the changes to the charter. (“European Parliament urges EU to make abortion a basic right,” Deutsche Welle, 07 July 2022)
European Parliament reiterates use of sustainable aviation fuel by 2025
On 07 July, the European Parliament reiterated its commitment to mandatory targets for replacing kerosene with more environment-friendly energy sources. Such a requirement was proposed by the European Commission last year but has now been expanded on. The new text approved by the parliament will require suppliers to blend 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) with kerosene from 2025, to be raised to 85% by 2050. Originally, SAF included biofuels derived from recycled waste and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels or e-fuels from renewable energy sources. However, the new rules have added recycled carbon fuels derived from waste gas and biofuels derived from animal fats or distillates to the list. The rules will now await approval from the member governments and the EU Commission. (“EU lawmakers back mandatory use of green jet fuel from 2025,” Reuters, 07 July 2022)
Europe might face ban on Facebook and Instagram
On 07 July, the Irish Data Protection Commission informed that they will not allow Facebook-owner Meta from sending user data from Europe to the US. The measure comes as a response to Meta's legal resort to transfer large chunks of data to the US. The draft decision by the Irish DPC has been sent to other European privacy regulators, and if confirmed might shut down many of Meta’s services like Facebook and Instagram in Europe. The US and the EU are negotiating a new data-transfer text which will allow companies like Meta to ship data across the Atlantic. However, while a preliminary political deal was reached in March, the legal fine print is yet to be decided on. (Vincent Manancourt, “Europe faces Facebook blackout,” Politico, 07 July 2022)
MARITIME
Senckenberg scientists develop new indicators for marine ecosystem protection
On 07 July it was reported that Senckenberg scientists, working with an international team have developed new indicators to monitor the protection of marine and coastal areas. The study was published in the journal “Scientific Data,” and illustrates the large gaps in the current system of protection of marine ecosystems. The team led by Senckenberg researchers, Joy A. Kumagai and Aidin Niamir, developed two indicators that provide information on what per cent of coastal and marine habitats are located within protected and conserved areas. Analysis showed that while 40 per cent of mangroves, coral reefs, and salt marshes are located in protected or conserved areas, less than 10 per cent of seamounts are under protected areas, as they often fall outside national jurisdiction. Niamir said: “The lack of protection on the high seas poses a major problem, since this area also offers the greatest opportunity for habitat conservation, in terms of area, if its protection were increased to 30 percent.” (Judith Jördens, Aidin Niamir and Joy Kumagai, “More Ocean Protection: New Indicators for Marine Ecosystem Protection Developed,” Senckenberg, 07 July 2022)