NIAS Area Studies
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Photo : Paolo Giandotti/Italian Presidential Palace/Reuters/ The Washington Post
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Italy’s political instability: Three Issues
By Emmanuel Royan
On 21 July, Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi resignation was accepted by president Sergio Mattarella which was rejected earlier. His resignation follows after the withdrawal of support from the coalition party- the Five Star Movement on confidence vote. Followed by the resignation, the leaders of the two right-wing parties that also make up Draghi’s cabinet, Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini of the League party declared that they could no longer cooperate with the 5Star Movement. Upon resignation the Italy will now hold a snap election on 02 October to choose the prime minister, until then the caretaken government will govern Italy.
Three issues
First, the complexity in the political system. Italy’s parliament has a bicameral legislature, the Chamber of Deputies, which has 630 members, and the Senate with 315 members. Italians have two votes, one for each house. A total of 37 per cent of the seats in each house will be directly elected using the first-past-the-post method, and 64 per cent will be distributed proportionally. Small parties have a better chance of representation in Italy because it utilizes proportional representation and does not require a minimum percentage of the total vote to win seats. The original intent of the system was to prevent the likelihood of one party or leader acquiring an excessive amount of power. A first-past-the-post component and thresholds of three per cent for individual parties and ten per cent for coalitions were introduced by the electoral law 2018, increasing the incentive for coalition formation. Grand coalitions, or groups of parties from several political spheres that come together after the vote, have governed Italy. Such coalitions frequently struggle to reach a consensus on legislation and frequently result in conflicts that cause governments to fall because the parties involved typically hold extremely divergent viewpoints. As a result, coalition governments are more susceptible to crises and opportunism as junior partners use threats to dissolve the governments and, in some cases, actual implementations to gain greater power or cabinet seats.
Second, failure in the technocratic leadership and public discontent. Technocracy’s fundamental premise is that there is only one method to solve any given issue, and experts are the only ones who understand how to do it. This conception does not allow for disagreement or compromise between competing interests and values, which is the core of political parties that are meant to represent the various facets of society. Since 1993, Draghi was the fourth technocrat to serve as the head of government. He succeeds Mario Monti, a former European Commission member who served as prime minister from 2011 to 2013. Before him stood Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, a former governor of the Bank of Italy, and Lamberto Dini, a former executive director of the International Monetary Fund. Italy’s technocratic leadership over the years have neither resolved the economic issues and political instability. The citizens were wary of technocrats as they felt that they did not directly represent them. Due to the discontent among people following two years of technocratic rule, the populist Five Star Movement emerged with a commitment for ‘direct democracy’. This signaled the beginning of several years of ineffective governance and served as a clear warning of rising dissatisfaction among the people with how the Italian democracy was functioning.
Third, unreliability of the Five Star Movement party. The Five Star Movement party makes up the largest coalition ally of the government and holds significant votes. The party initially supported Dragi’s EUR 23 billion decree on Economic aid for social welfare and businesses. However, the Five Star Movement declined to vote on the bill and presented Draghi with a nine-point list of demands, which includes a commitment for basic income and minimum wage. After complaining that his party's supporters had been treated disrespectfully and ignored by other coalition parties. Such claims and unreliability of the party made other coalition parties to not work with the Movement anymore, therefore leading to the collapse.
Heatwaves across Europe: Causes, effects and response
By Rishma Banerjee
On 19 July the UK recorded its highest temperatures ever, crossing 40 degrees Celsius. Parts of France, Spain, and Portugal too recorded high temperatures between 42 and 46 degrees. While the heatwave had started in southern and western Europe, it is moving eastwards. Over the last few days, Netherlands, Poland, Italy, and Slovenia, authorities have issued heat warnings. This is not the first time in the year that Europe is experiencing heat waves. In May, France registered temperatures higher than the historic average. In June too, southern part of Europe experienced another heatwave, which spread from Spain to Turkey.
Causes
There are a few factors that are contributing to the recent heatwaves in Europe.
First, this is an indirect result of the average global temperature being up by 1.1 degrees Celsius than in the 19th century. Second, a region of low-pressure air off the coast of Portugal resulted in the heat from North African regions reaching into England and Wales. Third, a connection between the heatwaves and splitting of the jet stream into two has been established. Because of the split, an area of weak winds results in the build-up of heat between the two branches. Fourth, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation which is seen to be adversely affecting the weather in Europe.
Effects
First, the continuing wildfires and droughts. The heatwaves wildfires have erupted in several European countries like Portugal, Spain, France, and Poland. Thousands of people across Europe have been evacuated to temporary shelters. Portugal reported more than 250 blazes over a period of two days, and 650 deaths due to heat-related illnesses. Spain lost 14,000 hectares to fires; an estimated 360 people succumbed to extreme heat. Wildfires have also destroyed over 19,000 hectares of forest in southwestern France. The greater frequency, intensity, and duration of the heat waves have also been linked to the growing incidence of drought in different parts of Europe. The water level in Italy’s longest river, the Po river reached record low levels after no rainfall for more than 200 days. Spain’s reservoirs were at 44.4 percent of their capacity from 65.7 per cent in the last decade.
Second, infrastructural incapability. Many European cities are not designed to withstand such high temperatures. They do not have the infrastructure to keep people cool, and that had added to the crisis. European buildings most of which are not equipped with air conditioners also do not have fan fans. They are built to trap heat in order to help residents better withstand the cold. This has caused indoor temperatures to soar during a heat wave. In some places, roads have melted.
Third, increase in energy usage. With the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves rising this summer, Europe’s energy requirements have increased at the wrong time, given the sanctions on Russian energy. While Europe has aimed to cut down emissions and to invest heavily in renewables, this shift has also been disrupted by the war in Ukraine and the impending energy crisis.
Fourth, worsening public health. High temperatures reduce air circulation and lead to an increase in air pollution. This worsens respiratory issues and increases risks of heatstroke and heat exhaustion. Reportedly more than 600 people have died in Portugal in Spain due to high temperatures.
Response
First, the state responses. Most of the states have declared red alerts due to the extreme heat. The UK called an emergency Cabinet meeting to discuss Britain’s first-ever “Extreme Red” heat warning. Trains and flights functioned at a lower rate due to fears of expanding tracks and melting runways. Free water points and announced emergency provisions for rough sleepers. In France, city councils made museums and other air-conditioned places free of charge, and extended pool opening hours. Over 3,000 firefighters, assisted by rescue forces from Greece, and six ‘water-bomber’ aircraft have also been deployed. In Portugal, more than 1,400 firefighters were in action at 44 fires while in Spain the firefighters were struggling to control the actives blazes too.
Second, the regional response. In 2003, an intense heatwave in Europe had killed over 70,000 people. Since then has tries to build capacity, long-term heat action plans have not materialized. While the member states are committed to shift to green energy, the process or rate has not been as swift as necessary. While measures have been discussed in theory, in practice however Europe lacks preparedness.
Third, the international response. The World Meteorological Organisation has issued a warning saying that this is a "foretaste of the future." They linked the heatwaves as a direct consequence of the global warming and climate change. According to WMO heatwaves will become more frequent and more severe because of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is the reason the IPCC mandates member states to attempt and cap the global rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees celsius rise.
References
Renee Maltezou and Federico Maccioni, “Europe's heatwave reaches Poland, Greece as it moves eastwards, brings wildfires,” Reuters, 22 July 2022
Alison Roberts, Jessica Parker & Guy Hedgecoe, “Heatwave: Wildfires spread across Europe,” BBC, 19 July 2022
Henry Fountain, “Why Europe Is Becoming a Heat Wave Hot Spot”, The New York Times, 18 July 2022
“Why is it so effing hot? Europe’s heat wave explained,” POLITICO, 18 July 2022
“Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia,” Nature Communications, 04 July 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 149
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 22 July, Ukraine and Russia agreed to sign the deal to allow the export of millions of tonnes of grains that were blockaded at Black Sea ports in the Odesa region. The signing of the UN-backed agreement will take place at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul and will be attended by UN Secretary-General General Antonio Guterres and Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The deal would be critical for global grain security. This deal would loosen up the global food crisis. The deal was agreed upon after Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and UN held a meeting to discuss about the blockade.
On 21 July, more than 230 fire missions were performed by the missile and artillery units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, exterminating 35 Russian soldiers and demolishing a Msta-S self-propelled howitzer, two reconnaissance drones, three armored vehicles and eight vehicles. Ukrainian aircraft made eight strikes on Russia's reserves and positions, with five strikes launched by a bomber and attack aircraft and three by helicopters. The UAF also ambushed five Russian strongholds and two ammunition depots in the Kherson region and also attacked a large number of Russian soldiers in the Mykolaiv region.
On the same day, Ukraine's deputy defence minister Volodymr Havrylov visited Scotland to meet the UK Armed Forces minister James Heappey. He also went to observe the training of the sailors of Ukraine's navy with the help of the British Royal Navy. Ukraine's recruits were educated on weapon drills, the operation of machinery on board navy vessels, and advanced damage control methods. They were being trained in the water of Scotland. Over a thousand of the UK's Armed Forces personnel were seen to teach the UAF the tactics and techniques used by them.
Also on the same day, the naval forces of the UAF posted on Facebook that three Russian Kalibr operational and tactical missile carriers were on combat duty in the Black Sea. Furthermore, there were five Russian Kalibr operational and tactical missile carriers and two missile cruisers were spotted in the Mediterranean Sea. Six Russian ships and boats still control the maritime lane in the Sea of Azov. It was also noted that Russia violated the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974, by turning off the Automatic Identification System on civilian vessels in the Sea of Azov. According to Ukraine's ministry of defence intelligence, Russia had consumed more than 50 per cent of the high-precision weapons that it had from the beginning of the war.
On 22 July, Mariupol-based Ukrainian steel company, Metinvest claims that Russia has been looting USD 600 million worth of steel from plants and ports in Ukraine. Russia was looting thousands of tonnes of steel that were paid for by European customers including in the UK. Russia has been pillaging the company's selling it to internal markets in Africa and Asia. Yuriy Ryzhenkov, chief executive of Metinvest wants to go before international courts to take legal action against Moscow on accounts of thievery. Ge said that his company is contributing to the war by manufacturing bulletproof west and providing steel for underground bunkers and armoured vehicles.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 22 July, Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov promised to deliver pledged food, fertiliser, energy and other commodities to Africa despite being sunk in western sanctions. He denied the west's and Ukraine's claim of Russia purposefully starving Africa. Russia had blockaded 20 million tonnes of grain in Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. The sanctions imposed on Russia denied its ships insurance as well as obstructed foreign vessels from Russian ports. This is in addition to already worse conditions due to the covid pandemic that led to food shortages in Africa. Lavrov said that Russia will fulfil its promise and will provide what is obligated to Africa.
Also on 22 July, the leaders of the pro-Russian separatists decided to block Google in the region of Donetsk People's Republic. Luhansk People's Republic blocked Google on the previous day of DPR doing the same. The reason given by DPR leader Denis Pushilin for obstructing Google was that the American giant was endorsing violence against Russians, especially the people of the Donbas region. Pushilin also accused Google of working for the US government. According to Pushilin, the west and Ukraine are trying to build unprecedented pressure on the physical and psychological safety of the people of DPR and are intending to break its people.
On the same day, Russia updated its list of unfriendly nations. Greece, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia were added to the list of foreign states that committed unfriendly acts towards Russia. The list was a counter measure deployed by Russia's president Vladimir Putin to unfriendly actions by other countries by limiting the possibility of hiring Russian workers for its embassies, consulates and representative offices of government agencies. The limitations of Greece, Denmark and Slovakia were 34, 20 and 16 respectively. Slovenia and Croatia were denied hiring employees for their diplomatic missions and consular institutions.
Also on 22 July, a referendum on accession to Russia by LPR was decided to be held at 492 polling stations. The creation of the headquarters of the referendum was initiated on 15 July at the meeting of the Public Chamber of the republic. According to the head of LPR, Leonid Pasechnik, the main task before the referendum was to liberate the LPR from Ukraine's army. But on 03 July it was confirmed to be liberated which led to the consideration of the referendum. On 17 July, the election commission of LPR approved the procedure for creating voting and referendum stations.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 21 July, Germany is seen to have relied upon coal as a temporary solution to its energy. It is afraid that coal alone would not be efficient in providing energy for industries and the whole country. Its dependence on Russian gas will leave Berlin facing challenges if the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which carries the Russian gas, will cut off its supply completely. Germany is looking to increase its gas storage from 66 per cent to 80 to 90 per cent before winter. Berlin would have to implement gas rationing to save for the winter. It is planning to expand its LNG imports to secure supplies from countries like Qatar and store them in floating LNG terminals. The coalition government especially the greens are against the usage of nuclear power.
On the same day, the EU imposed a new set of sanctions on Russia mainly targeting its gold export. Russia's second-largest export industry after energy has also been financing its invasion of Ukraine. According to Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the gold export ban will not be enough to hurt Russia and its economy. The EU also decided to grant EUR 500 million to boost Ukraine's military aid.
Also on 22 July, Poland is getting ready to purchase tanks, howitzers and fighter planes from South Korea as Warsaw looks to increase its defensive capabilities if Russia attacks it. The deal entails 48 FA-50 light combat jets, 180 K2 "Black Panther" tanks and an unknown number of K9 howitzers. The agreement would bolster Poland's armed forces if Russia threatens to attack Warsaw. First howitzers and tanks are scheduled to arrive at the end of this year and planes next year, said the defence minister of Poland. Poland had contributed a large number of weaponry in its aid to Ukraine. The deal is to replace arms that were given to Ukraine.
Also on 22 July, the federal council reacted to the decision taken by the leaders of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) regarding Tiraspol incorporating into Russia. Russia will only consider Transnistria's incorporation only if it abides by the norms of international law. Transnistria plans to gain independence from Moldova by the 2006 referendum. After gaining independence it is planning to become a part of Russia.
Also on 22 July, Italy's ambassador to Ukraine Pier Francesco Zazo met with Kyiv's deputy head of the office of the president, Kyrylo Tymoshenko to discuss the reconstruction of Ukraine's recovered regions that we're affected by the Russian invasion. Tymoshenko presented a Fast Recovery Plan for infrastructures in the regions that were affected by the Russian aggression. The recovery plan includes the restoration of schools, private houses, apartments, hospitals and networks. Ambassador Zazo noted that Italy would help in the implementation of the fast recovery plan.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 21 July, US senators said that the spreading of Russia's influence in Africa has threatened American interests. Senators expressed worries over Russia's use of the mercenary Wagner Group in Africa, especially in Mali which is politically unstable at the present. The group had helped in multiple military coups in the region, giving the stronghold of West Africa to Russia. They have also expanded market influence in Africa ousting the US from getting Africa's rich commodities. Russia had gathered support in Africa opposing western sanctions. The US is afraid of Africa accepting disinformation from Russia and the impacts it brings to fragile and unstable countries.
On 22 July, South Africa saw the food crisis worsening in the country, increasing social instability and unrest. People have died of starvation including 12 children in the Eastern Cape. The South African consumer inflation rose to a 13-year high last month with an average household basic food costing around USD 270 per month. The war in Ukraine and the Blockade of grain in the Odesa region have influenced the rise of food prices in South Africa.
Also on 22 July, Israel decided to help Ukraine in its war against Russia albeit with caution. Even though Israel also faces security threats, it has reached out to Ukraine to assist. The strategic decision made by Israel is to provide Ukraine with the maximum aid that it can afford. Israel has provided treatment for dozens of people that were brought to their country. Humanitarian aid like delivering medicine, food, fresh water, generator, Israeli doctors were provided to Ukraine
References
"Ukrainian forces eliminate 35 invaders, strike five strongholds, two ammunition depots in south," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022
"East Ukraine pro-Russians block Google," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022
Jay Beecher, "Ukrainian Navy Being Trained in Scotland," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022
"Three Russian Kalibr missile carriers on combat duty in Black Sea," Ukrinform, 22 July 2022
"Kyrylo Tymoshenko and the Ambassador of Italy discussed the participation in the recovery of the affected regions of Ukraine," president.gov.ua, 21 July 2022
"Russia taking ‘all measures’ to deliver food to Africa - FM," Russian Times, 22 July 2022
"Russia adds Greece, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia to its unfriendly countries list," TASS, 22 July 2022
"Referendum on LPR joining Russia to be held at 492 polling stations — LPR official," TASS, 22 July 2022
"The Federation Council reacted to the plans of Pridnestrovie to become part of Russia," LENTA.RU, 22 July 2022
Jenny Hill, "Germany scrambles for energy with no faith in Russian has," BBC, 21 July 2022
Simon Jack, "Russia 'looting' steel bound for Europe and UK, says Metinvest boss," BBC, 22 July 2022
"EU slaps Russia with more sanctions over Ukraine war," euronews, 21 July 2022
Daniel Boffey and Ruth Michaelson, "Deal to restart Ukrainian grain exports in Black Sea ‘to be signed on Friday’," the Guardian, 22 July 2022
"Poland to buy South Korean tanks and combat planes," Deutsche Welle, 23 July 2022
Karoun Demirjian, "Russia’s moves in Africa problematic for U.S. interests, general agrees," Washington Post, 21 July 2022
"Fears of unrest as food prices soar in South Africa," africanews, 22 July 2022
"Israel provides aid to Ukraine, but military – with caution – ambassador," Kyiv Post, 22 July 2022
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan
BELGIUM
Belgium celebrates National Day
On 21 July, Belgium celebrated its national day marking 192 years since independence. It became independent in 1830 after the end of Belgium Revolution, where the National Congress made Belgium a kingdom. The celebration for 2022 will be special since it was not celebrated for past two years in the Pandemic. On the day, the royal family attended the National Day ceremony that included military and civilian parade in the Place des Palais. It also marked the remembrance of the historic soldiers who have helped the country. (Lauren Walker and Maïthé Chini, “What does Belgium celebrate on its National Day, and how?,” Brussels Times, 21 July 2022)
Belgium sings deal with French energy company to extend the operation of nuclear reactors
On 22 July, the Belgium government signed a deal with Engie which is a French energy company to prolong the functioning of the nuclear reactors by 10 years. The decision comes in the background of the Ukraine war and Europe’s growing energy dependency. With regards to the reactors, Doel 4 and Tihange 3 were scheduled to be closed down by 2025 for a technical examination, the reactors account for half of electricity generation for Belgium. With the government opting to phase out from the nuclear energy by 2025, the Ukraine war has trickled the decision. (“Belgium reaches tentative deal with Engie on extending nuclear reactors,” POLITICO, 21 July 2022)
THE UK
UK navy tracks down two Russian submarines in the Norwegian coast
On 22 July, the UK Royal Navy reported on spotting two Russian submarines in the north west of Bergen, Norway using UK submarine hunter HMS Portland. It found the vessels to be moving towards south in the underwater along the Norwegian coast. According to the Navy spokesperson, the navy used Type 23 frigate along with a Merlin helicopter which holds cutting-edge sonars, sensors and torpedoes to track down submarines. (Jo Couzens, “Royal Navy tracks two Russian submarines in North Sea,” BBC, 22 July 2022)
BREXIT
EU launches fresh legal charges against UK’s proposal to alter Northern Ireland Protocol; UK’s Brexit settlement amount increased due to inflation
On 23 June, the EU announced the launch of additional legal suit on the UK on its proposal to change the Brexit rules in Northern Ireland. UK‘s proposal to alter the agreed provisions in the Protocol is yet to be passed by the lords, until then the UK will have to face the legal proceedings filed by the EU. According to the EU, it has accused the UK for not sharing the trade information relating to trade check posts and goods exiting Northern Ireland. In response, the UK spokesperson said that it was frustrating to see the EU filing the case on the exit of goods which is of no risk and commented that the legal dispute will not help in resolving the Brexit problem. Treasury minister Simon Clarke raised concerns saying the outstanding payment to the EU by the UK upon Brexit has risen by GBP 7.5 billion due to inflation. Part of Brexit divorce bill, the UK agreed to pay back as part of financial settlement. With the inflation on peak, the repayment amount had increased. (“EU launches fresh legal action over Northern Ireland border rules,” BBC, 22 July 2022; “Brexit: UK's divorce bill from EU could rise to £42.5bn,” BBC, 22 July 2022)