NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Eurostat/BBC
War in Ukraine: Day 153
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
War on the Ground
On 25 July, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Europe to retaliate against Russia’s “gas war” by increasing the sanctions. He stated: "The gas blackmail of Europe, which only gets worse every month, is needed by a terrorist state to make the life of every European worse." He further claimed that Russia deliberately intended to reduce the flow to make it hard for Europe to cope with the coming winter.
On 26 July, Ukraine’s southern military operational command reported that Russian forces launched several missile attacks on the Black Sea coast near the southern port city of Odesa and in Mykolaiv. The mayor of Mykolaiv, Oleksandr Sienkevych, claimed that the city’s boiler facility had been damaged. Kim also reported that Aircraft were used to launch cruise missiles targeting port and railway infrastructure.
On the same day, the gas transmission system operator of Ukraine stated that Russian gas firm Gazprom has increased pressure on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline which carries gas to Europe without prior caution. The operator stated: "Failing to inform the operator in a timely manner carries potential risks to the normal operation of the pipeline."
Also on 26 July, the Chairman of the International Churchill Society, Laurence Geller conferred president Zelenskyy the Winston Churchill Leadership Award. Geller stated that he admires Zelenskyy’s devotion to the fundamental principles of democracy and persistence in defending his country which helps Europe to understand itself. Zelenskyy in response said that he dedicated the award to the Ukrainian people. He also urged for the continuation of modern and effective weapons to Ukraine in considerable quantities by stating: “The democracies of the world are capable of stopping any tyranny. We are capable of stopping any evil that threatens our freedom. Only the joint leadership of the entire free world can be enough for this.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 26 July, the deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region in Ukraine, Kirill Stremousov stated that a referendum on joining Russia will be held despite Kyiv’s attempts to stop it. He further stated: "After the referendum takes place, we will become [part of] the Russian Federation, it will be another history, another country." Sremousov also reported that the referendum will be held with the Zaporizhzhia region on the same day and that the preparations for it are underway.
Also on 26 July, Russia’s defence ministry reported that more than 40 foreign mercenaries, most of whom were Polish citizens, were killed by a missile strike in Donbas. The high-precision missile strike hit a temporary deployment of Ukraine’s International Legion units in Konstantinovka. The defence ministry’s data reveals that as of 17 June, 6,956 foreign mercenaries from 64 countries have arrived in Ukraine to fight for the country.
On 26 July, Russian gas operator Gazprom announced plans to reduce the supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline to 20 per cent of its capacity and will not be exceeding 33 million cubic meters a day. The move comes after the announcement that another Siemens gas turbine engine at the Portovaya compressor station will be halted for regular maintenance.
On 26 July, the ruble's value decreased relative to the international currencies. According to statistics from the Moscow Exchange, the dollar increased to the mark of 60 rubles and the euro to 61 rubles. At the end of June, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that the strengthening of the currency was causing the Russian budget to lose billions of dollars. By July 19, the specifics of the updated budget rule were revealed. The ministry advises focusing on a cut-off price of USD 60 per barrel and setting output at 9.5 million barrels per day for calculating basic revenues from the oil and gas business.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
The EU member states have added an exemption clause for some countries, where the agreement will be invoked as a mandate if supplies reach alarmingly low levels. According to the new clause, some countries which are not connected to the EU’s gas pipeline and are heavily dependent on Russia like Ireland, Malta, and Cyprus will be exempt from this mandatory gas reduction. The Baltic States are also exempt from meeting the compulsory targets as they are heavily reliant on gas for their electricity production. According to the decision, countries will also ask for an exemption if they are dependent on gas for critical industries, if their consumption has gone up by eight per cent or if they have exceeded their storage filling targets.
On 26 July, the UK government sanctioned two leaders from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republics (LPR) and have frozen their assets. DPR prime minister Vitaly Khotsenko and LPR first deputy chairman Vladislav Kuznetsov have been banned from entering the UK. Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss said that UK will keep imposing similar sanctions on people who are legitimizing Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
On the same day, as a part of his three-leg tour of Africa, France’s president Emmanuel Macron visited Cameroon. He disputed the claims that the West is to blame for the food crisis in Africa. Macron said that like energy, Russia was also using food as a “weapon of war.” He also mentioned that given the current situation, France will help Africa in producing more food for their own use and to reduce their dependency.
On 25 July, Slovakia’s defence minister Jaroslav Nad announced that they are considering donating their Soviet-era MiG fleet of warplanes to Ukraine. He mentioned that no concrete decision has been taken yet, but they are “ready to discuss that later on,” after their fleets are grounded. Slovakia has deals with the Czech Republic and Poland to assist in monitoring Slovak airspace, from the beginning of September. If discussions with their allies are fruitful, this will be the fourth variety of heavy weapons that Slovakia has donated to Ukraine. Till now, its donations include Soviet-era S-300 air defence system, military helicopters and thousands of Grad multiple-rocket launcher rockets.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 26 July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning about an impending global recession. In an update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that due to the war in Ukraine and its resultant fallouts, the economies of the US, China, and Europe will slow down more sharply than projected. This might lead to the weakest world economy since 1970. In the new forecast, the IMF says that output will fall to 3.2 per cent from the 6.1 per cent as had been predicted last year. Moreover, prices are expected to rise 6.5 per cent in rich economies and 9.5 per cent in emerging and developing economies. In a blog post accompanying the report, the IMF chief, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that the outlook of the global economy is “increasingly gloomy.”
Also on the same day, Ukraine’s National Bank Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko said that Ukraine has requested the IMF for a USD 15-20 billion loan, and are in consultation about the same. He hoped that the loan will be granted through a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) or an Extended Fund Facility (EFF), over the course of two or three years.
Guatemala’s president Alejandro Giammattei became the first Latin American leader to visit Ukraine, since Russia’s invasion in February. He met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv and expressed his solidarity with the people of Ukraine. Giammattei also reiterated that Guatemala has been against this conflict from the very beginning and as long as human lives are lost they will not silence their voices.
On 26 July, Uganda received Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, as a part of his Africa tour. President Yoweri Museveni conducted a closed-door meeting with Lavrov. After the meeting, Museveni thanked Russia for supporting the anti-colonial movement for the last 100 years. According to him, there were no reasons to criticize as he observed to have not committed any mistake.
References
Jay Beecher, “Kyiv says Russian Strikes Pummeling Ukraine’s Black Sea Coast,” Kyiv Post, 26 July 2022
“Zelensky Urges Europe to Boost Russia Sanctions Over ‘Gas War’,” Kyiv Post, 26 July 2022
“The democracies of the world are capable of stopping any tyranny - speech by the President of “Ukraine during the awarding of the Winston Churchill Leadership Award,” presidentofZelenskyy, 26 July 2022
“Ukraine says Russia increased gas pipeline pressure without prior notice,” Reuters, 26 July 2022
“Ukraine war: Russia waging gas war with Nord Stream 1 cuts - Zelensky,” BBC, 26 July 2022
ussia to Exit International Space Station ‘After 2024,’ Space Chief Confirms,” The Moscow Times, 26 July 2022
“Kherson Region vows to hold referendum regardless of Kiev's intimidation,” TASS, 26 July 2022
Polish mercenaries killed by Russian missile strike – Moscow,” TASS, 26 July 2022
“Polish mercenaries killed by Russian missile strike – Moscow,” rt.com, 26 July 2022
“Gazprom will reduce supplies via Nord Stream,” lenta.ru, 26 July 2022
Michael Race, “EU allows get-out clause in Russian gas cut deal,” BBC, 26 July 2022
“Ukraine war: UK sanctions leaders of Ukraine breakaway regions,” BBC, 26 July 2022
Amindeh Blaise Atabong, “Macron, in Cameroon, says food is Russian weapon of war,” Reuters, 26 July 2022
“Slovakia may consider giving Ukraine Russian-built warplanes,” AP News, 25 July 2022
“The I.M.F. warns that a global recession could soon be at hand,” The New York Times, 26 July 2022
“Ukraine expects to get up to $20B in loan from IMF, says NBU governor,” Ukrinform, 27 July 2022
“Russian foreign minister arrives in Uganda as part of Africa tour,” Anadolu Agency, 26 July 2022
“Guatemala’s president visits Ukraine, expresses solidarity,” AP News, 26 July 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
CROATIA
A new bridge was unveiled that connects two parts of Croatia
On 26 July, Croatia officially inaugurated the Peljesac Bridge which connects the two divided parts of Croatia. Both parts were divided by a stretch of Adriatic sea which was controlled by Bosnia. The two-kilometer bridge cost around EUR 526 million in the EU funded by EUR 357 million. The China Road and bridge cooperation won the international bid for the construction of the bridge in 2018. The people of Dubrovnik feel connected to Croatia for the first time since Yugoslavia broke up. The official opening ceremony will have a speech from Croatia's prime minister Andrej Plenkovic and a video message from Chinese prime minister Li Keqiang. The bridge will be a huge boost to the tourism industry of Croatia, which is the key to the country's economy. (“Croatia opens Peljesac bridge, bypassing Bosnia to ease Dubrovnik access,” Deutsche Welle, 26 July 2022)
FRANCE
Macron tours West Africa to form friendly ties
On 26 July, France's President Emmanuel Macron visited Cameroon which kicked off his three-country west African tour. He will visit Benin and the responsibilities of the colonial power through an investigation. Cameroon's politicians wanted Macron to address the crimes committed by the colonial power during its stay in the country As reparation, France returned historians that were stolen to Benin in 2021. Macron also discussed counter-terrorism and security cooperation in Western Africa's Chad Basin with his Cameroonian counterpart, Paul Biya. France promised it will aid Africa in its time of food crisis that is present Guinea-Bissau on 27 July 2022. He invited historians from France and Cameroon to look into Paris' archives of the colonial past. He wanted to establish now. ("Macron in Cameroon offers look at past, help for future," Deutsche Welle, 26 July 2022)
HUNGARY
Orban's racist speech incites resignation from his advisor
On 27 July, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban's advisor Zsuzsa Hegedus handed over her resignation letter due to Orban's racist comments in his speech in Romania. She called his speech a pure Nazi text In the speech. Orban said that European people should be free to mix but mingling with non-European people will create a mixed-race world. He also said that they don't want more mixed races. Hegedus compared Orban to Joseph Goebbels who was in charge of propaganda under Adolf Hitler. Orban faced a lot of criticism for his speech and also his anti-migration sentiments. ("Hungary PM Viktor Orban adviser Hegedus resigns over 'pure Nazi' speech," BBC, 27 July 2022)
THE UK
Water companies prepare plans for possible drought in the UK
On 26 July, the UK is being cautious about their water supplies amidst concerns of drought due to heatwaves. The UK is imposing early phases of drought plans following record-breaking temperatures. The plan does not include regulation of water thus far but includes management of water levels and artificial maintenance of rivers. Assistance to farmers in areas facing prolonged dry weather will be given. The UK's water companies are preparing measures for potential drought in the country. ("Britain begins drought planning after record heatwave," Reuters, 26 July, 2022)
REGIONAL
Firefighters battle wildfire spread across Germany and the Czech Republic
On 25 July, wildfires erupted in East Germany and the neighbouring Czech Republic. Hundreds of firefighters joined the wildfires from spreading. The fire spread across bone-dry pine forest which held buried world war II ammunition. The large fire destroyed 850 hectares of area and continues to spread quickly due to gusty winds. Several firefighters have been injured and many more are fighting to prevent the further spreading of the fire. Firefighters are cautious not to access the area of ammunition in the fear of an explosion. Countries such as Poland, Slovakia, Germany and Italy are providing special firefighting aircraft and helicopters to douse the wildfire in the Czech Republic. People are being evacuated from the towns and villages near the wildfire. (“Hundreds of firefighters battle blazes in Germany and Czech Republic,” Euronews, 26 July 2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Freya, the sea walrus sighted in Oslo
On 26 July, the young female sea walrus named Freya was spotted in Oslo resting on boats. The 600 kilograms marine mammal was first spotted in 2019 in northern Norway. She was subsequently spotted in the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden over the years. According to the World Wildlife Fund, she has been travelling south of the Arctic due to melting snowcaps. Climate change caused the walrus to migrate to another location in the summer. People were cautioned to stay away from the animal so as not to get harmed by it. (Alyss Davies, “Freya the 600kg walrus causes a stir in Norway,” BBC, 26 July 2022)
SPACE
Russia to withdraw from the ISS project
On 26 July, the newly appointed Roscosmos chief Yury Borisov announced that Russia will be withdrawing from the International Space Station (ISS) “after 2024” and building its own orbiting station. He further mentioned that the agency will also provide space services regarding navigation, communication, and data transmission. The project is viewed as one of the last standing cooperation in space between the US and Russia. Although the withdrawal was scheduled to happen in the future, with the Ukraine war, the pullout has been fastened. According to US President Joe Biden: "We estimate that we’ll cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports. That will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernize their military. It’ll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program." (“Russia signals space station pullout; NASA says it's not official yet," Reuters, 26 July 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Saudi Arabia and Greece agree to build data cable to share green energy
On 26 July, Saudi Arabia's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed to a deal to lay an undersea data cable with Greece during his visit to Athens. Greece and Saudi Arabia agreed to build a data cable that will connect Europe with Asia. The East to Med data corridor will be used for supplying cheaper and greener energy to Europe. Mohammed's visit to Athens was the first to an EU member nation since the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. The linkage with Saudi's electricity grid will provide Greece and southwest European nations with cheaper renewable energy through Athens. Both countries also signed bilateral agreements relating to energy, military, and economic cooperation. Saudi Arabia initially denied the request of the US and EU on increasing its output since it followed the benchmark set by OPEC. ("Greece, Saudi Arabia seal deal on data cable, discuss power grid link," Reuters, 27 July, 2022)