NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : NATO
War in Ukraine: Day 159
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 01 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed new laws, one, to provide safety and protection to journalists, working in hostile areas. Two, to remove the bureaucratic barriers to easily provide assistance to internally displaced people. Three, on handling emergency situations and hostilities, and four, for thermal modernization of buildings and simplifying the process of restoration of the residential sector.
On the same day, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv were shelled amidst air raid sirens. Russia used tanks, barrels, and jet artillery in this region. Tube and rocket artillery was also fired in the Siversky direction, in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Sloviansk was also under the fire, but there was a decrease in Russia’s offensive in the Kramatorsk direction or in Zaporizhzhia, where their troops were seen regrouping. Russia’s offensive is observed to increase in southern Ukraine, and is seen to be bringing more territory under control and consolidating the Southern Buh region and the Kryvyi Rih direction. The Army’s General Staff said that Belarus has deployed additional e-warfare systems in the parts of the border shared with Ukraine, like in the Volyn and Polissya direction.
On 01 August, the first ship carrying grains from Ukraine, under the joint safe passage agreement left the port of Odesa. Carrying 26,000 metric tonnes of maize, the Sierra Leone-flagged ship, Razoni, is destined for Tripoli in Lebanon. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres applauded the effort and expressed hope that this is the first of many such ships. Guterres also said that the World Food Programme intends to “purchase, load and ship an initial 30,000 metric tonnes of wheat from Ukraine in an UN-chartered vessel,” in the following days. Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said that it was a “relief for the world,” and the Kremlin called it a "very positive development." Moreover, Ukraine’s infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov informed that 16 more vessels will be shipped soon carrying 600,000 tonnes from the Odesa port.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 01 August, Russia’s deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin spoke in an interview about the reconstruction efforts in Mariupol. He mentioned that the first buildings in the town will be ready by September, and hospitals and a center for the emergency ministry will also be set up. About the Azovstal steelworks, Khusnullin said that it will not be rebuilt as per its previous capacity, where it employed around 12,000 people. He also said that Russia is trying to create more jobs to make the city more self-reliant. A technology park with elements of the landscape will be established to re-initiate the economy in the region.
Russia’s foreign ministry alleged that NATO members were supporting Ukraine to recruit foreign mercenaries to assist its war efforts. The head of the department of new challenges and threats at the ministry, Vladimir Tarabrin reported on the involvement of the NGO members in the operation, but Russia is seen to be of the recruitments and has been monitoring. The department alleges that 7000 foreign mercenaries have come to Ukraine so far, with the most being from Poland, followed by Canada, the US, Romania, and the UK.
Russia’s courts announced that they will release hundreds of Ukraine’s citizens stuck in detention camps. The Moscow branch of Russia’s Federal Court Marshals Service said that they have not been allowed to cross the border due to the war. Moreover, the migrants without documentation face a similar fate as the closed consulates are unable to process their files. The court marshals service added, it will now consider
filing appeals to stop the forced expulsion orders against these migrants.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 01 August, NATO members Germany, Hungary, and Italy took over the policing of the airspace over the Baltic region, as a part of NATO’s air policing mission. Four JAS-39 fighter aircraft and around eighty personnel from Hungary will lead the mission out of Šiauliai air base in Lithuania. They will be joined by four German Eurofighter aircraft, flying out of Amari, Estonia, and Italian Eurofighters based in Malbork, Poland. The new force will replace the Belgian, French, and Spanish units that have been patrolling the Baltic airspace since April. Regarding the operation, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said: “At a time when European security has been fundamentally altered by Russia’s war against Ukraine, NATO fighter jets remain ready around the clock to protect Allied airspace. We are always vigilant.”
In their effort at a crackdown on Russia’s oligarchs and elites, the UK will now require foreign companies with property in the UK to record the details of their owners in a new register. Termed the “Register of Overseas Entities,” this is a part of the economic crime law enacted this year. The register is to stop the illegal flow of cash into London, as this will prevent criminals from hiding behind chains of shell companies.
The white house released a statement, renewing its commitment to a responsible nuclear arsenal, at the tenth review conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The month-long conference was slated to be held in 2022 but has been delayed due to the Covid 19 pandemic. President Joe Biden said that he is prepared to pursue a new nuclear arms deal with Russia and urged President Vladimir Putin to act in “good faith”. Putin reiterated, saying that there will not be any winners if nuclear warfare breaks out.
The US announced a fresh package of aid to Ukraine. The new package is the seventeenth drawdown from the US and will send up to USD 500 million in arms and equipment from the US department of defense (DoD) for Ukraine’s war efforts. The DoD has promised more HIMARS and 155-millimeter artillery systems that Ukraine’s forces are already using on the battlefield. With the new package, the total military aid from the US to Ukraine will come to about USD 8.7 billion.
On 01 August, Latvia suspended the border-crossing arrangement that allowed travel between Russia and Latvia. The agreement had been signed between the two countries in 2010. Latvia’s government has cited the closure of Latvia’s consulate in Pskov, Russia as the main reason behind freezing the agreement. The consulate in Pskov was the only Latvian mission that issued papers to Russians for traveling to Latvia, But Russia's ordered the closure to retaliate against Latvia’s support of Ukraine.
On the same day, the European Commission disbursed USD 500 million of the USD one billion Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) operation for Ukraine. The remaining amount will be sent on 02 August. The MFA is part of the extraordinary effort by the EU to assist Ukraine in its war efforts and to address its urgent financial needs.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 01 August, the New Zealand government introduced a fresh set of sanctions on Russia. The new list includes branches and independent arms of the Russian armed forces especially logistical support units and the defense entities responsible for providing weapons and equipment. The insurance company SOGAZ, the Russian Railways, and defense entities that research, produce and test military hardware for Russia’s army have also been included under the new sanctions.
Australia’s Governor-General David Hurley met Poland’s President Andrzej Duda in Warsaw and both the leaders reiterated their support for Ukraine. Duda thanked Australia for their contribution to Ukraine’s war efforts, especially for the provision of Bushmaster infantry mobility vehicles. Hurley, on his first visit to Poland, thanked Poland for accepting the refugees from Ukraine.
On the same day, Iran’s foreign ministry reiterated its neutral position in the Ukraine war. The foreign minister, Kanani Chafi said that Iran will not take part in any initiative that risks aggravating the conflict for any side. He said that Iran will be choosing “peace and support” to resolve the crisis and will be making efforts in that direction.
The Vatican announced Pope Francis's scheduled to visit Kazakhstan in September. Reuters reported on the possible meeting between Francis and the Russian Orthodox patriarch Kirill to discuss Ukraine.
While patriarch Kiril had backed Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Pope urged Russia and Ukraine to resolve the crisis peacefully. In May, the pope had said that Kirill “cannot become Putin's altar boy,” which was criticized by the Russian orthodox church.
A new study conducted by the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) found that Twitter accounts which previously dealt with conspiracy theories and the anti-vaccination movement were increasingly focused on spreading disinformation about the global food crisis. According to the research, the Twitter accounts were mirroring Russia’s official position. It is to push the idea that the sanctions by the western countries on Russia are responsible for the food insecurity and cause to the interruption of grain exports from Ukraine.
References
“Zelensky Signs New Laws to Protect Journalists and Civilians,” Kyiv Post, 01 August 2022
“First Grain Shipment Since Russian Invasion Leaves Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 01 August 2022
“First ship leaving Ukraine has 26,000 tonnes of corn -coordination centre,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
“Ukraine’s Armed Forces neutralize Russian recon group near Mazanivka, prevent enemy advance towards Marinkai,, 01 August 2022
“Belarus deploys additional e-warfare systems near Ukraine border,” Ukrinform, 01 August 2022
“Russia Outlines Plans to Rebuild Ukraine's Devastated Mariupol – Official,” The Moscow Times, 01 August 2022
“Ukraine’s military sustains 50 casualties in Donbass over past day — LPR,” TASS, 01 August 2022
“Russia alleges NATO’s ‘quiet’ role in recruiting foreign fighters,” RT, 01 August 2022
“Russia Releases Ukrainians Set for Deportation – Kommersant,” The Moscow Times, 01 August 2022
“UK brings in ownership register for property held by foreign companies,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
“President Biden Statement Ahead of the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” whitehouse.gov, 01 August 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Biden, Putin strike conciliatory tones as nuclear arms talks start at U.N.,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
“Biden-Harris Administration Announces $550 Million in New U.S. Military Assistance for Ukraine,” state.gov, 01 August 2022
“EU state suspends travel deal with Russia,” RT, 01 August 2022
“European Commission disburses first tranche of the new €1 billion Macro-Financial Assistance for Ukraine,” European Commission, 01 August 2022
“Germany, Hungary, Italy take up NATO’s Baltic air policing,” NATO, 01 August 2022
“Situation in Ukraine,” war.ukraine.ua, 01 August, 2022
“Poland, Australia leaders confirm support for Ukraine in its fight against aggressor,” Ukrinform, 01 August 2022
“Iran is not involved in initiatives contributing to military action in Ukraine — statement,” TASS, 01 August 2022
Philip Pullella, “Pope to visit Kazakhstan, may meet Russian Orthodox patriarch,” Reuters, 01 August 2022
Adam Gabbatt, “Anti-vax Twitter accounts pushing food crisis misinformation, study finds,” The Guardian, 01 August 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
FINLAND
Helsinki prepares to shut the eastern border with Russia
On 01 August, the Finnish government was compelled by the public and political parties to completely shut its eastern border with Russia to avoid escaping the sanctions imposed. Until July, there have been around 176,000 border crossings were recorded. Russians contribute the most to shopping tourism in the southeast regions of Finland. The opposition parties have called on the government to stop issuing tourist visas to the Russians. However, around 100,00 Russians already hold Schengen tourist visas given by Finland and other countries. The chairperson for the National Coalition Party stated that: "The main challenge is that closing the opportunity for Russians to come here might create anger towards us, whereas our aim is to create anger towards Putin's regime and the war." (David Mac Doughall, “How a sanctions loophole is letting Russians enter the EU,” euronews, 01 August 2022)
GERMANY
Berlin resumes coal-powered plants to generate energy for the winter
On 01 August, a coal power plant whose operations were paused concerning pollution and climate change received emergency permission to restart and run until April 2022. The economy minister, Robert Habeck called the move a necessary evil and accepted that it was a setback to address climate change. The decision was taken to prepare the country for the upcoming winter and attempts to replace Russian gas as it has completely halted its Nord Stream 1. Germany has also restricted the heating of public buildings and swimming pools. (“Germany puts coal power plant back on network after gas supply cut,” 01 August 2022)
KOSOVO
Pristina suspends its border measure after Serbs outrage
On 01 August, Kosovo decided to delay its new border measure on vehicle license plates and identity cards which provoked outrage among minority Serbs. Following the decision to postpone the measure, Serbs removed barricades that they had put up before. Serbia’s foreign minister Nkola Selakovic claimed that Kosovo made unacceptable unilateral moves to target the minority Serb population. He stated: “It is not only about ID cards and registering vehicle plates. It is about the way of behavior.” The EU in response to the tensions invited both the countries for talks in Brussels." The EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano reiterated that all open issues between Serbia and Kosovo have to be addressed only through the EU’s dialogues. (“Kosovo delays border measures amid Serbia tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 01 August 2022)
THE UK
Penny Mordaunt backs Liz Truss
On 01 August, eliminated Tory leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt announced to support Liz Truss who is in the front run of the race with Rishi Sunak. Mordaunt stated that she backed Truss for her “graft, her authenticity, her determination, her ambition for this country and her sense of duty,” and called her ass the “hope candidate.” Mordaunt was eliminated in the fifth round of the leadership race. A poll by YouGov shows Truss at an 18-point lead over Sunak. (“Boost for Liz Truss as ex-rival Penny Mordaunt backs her Tory leadership bid,” POLITICO, 01 August 2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Rigorous risks of climate change undermined and unassessed
On 01 August, an analysis published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science argued that the results of global heating beyond three degrees Celsius are undermined. The climate scientists warn that the risk of societal collapse has been “dangerously underexplored,” and called the situation the “climate endgame.” The analysis suggested a research agenda on famine, extreme weather, war, and disease. The scientists stated that a rigorous risk assessment on how threats spread, interact, and evolved had not yet been attempted. It also warned that climate breakdown might trigger other catastrophic threats, including wars or disease outbreaks, and worsen poverty, drought, and crop failures. (Damian Carrington, “Climate endgame: risk of human extinction ‘dangerously underexplored’,” The Guardian, 01 August 2020)
ENERGY
Wind farm to be established in Estonian Island of Saaremaa by Swedish firm
On 01 August, the Switzerland-based firm Deep Wind Offshore is preparing to establish a wind farm in the Swedish exclusive economic zone northwest of the Estonian island of Saaremaa. The wind farm would have around 200 turbines and a total capacity of 6,000 megawatts. The deputy secretary general of the Ministry of the Environment, Kaupo Heinma inquired the Saaremaa rural municipality on whether Estonia should be included in the cross-border environmental impact assessment. In response, the head of the environmental department of the municipality stated that international cooperation in energy is necessary and relevant specialists should be involved in the discussions. (“Swedish company planning large offshore wind farm northwest of Saaremaa island,” The Baltic Times, 01 August 2022)