NIAS Area Studies
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The UK: Domestic, regional and global challenges to the new Prime Minister
By Sourina Bej
On 6 September, Boris Johnson bid farewell to his three years tenure as the UK’s Prime Minister and paved the path for Liz Truss, his former foreign secretary. On 5 September, in a close call, the UK conservative party chose Liz Truss to replace Boris Johnson for the next two years. Boris Johnson leaves behind a legacy to “get BREXIT done” yet his means to the withdrawal agreement leaves deep-rooted irrevocable impacts for the new prime minister. What are the challenges before Liz Truss as she begins her maiden tenure as the UK’s next Prime Minister?
Domestic Challenges
Deep electoral divisions, coalition politics and splits within conservatives
Since the 2016 referendum, the British voting pattern had remained polarized between the nationalist and the unionist voters. This great divide was reflected along partisan lines such as the nationalists swinged for the political conservative right while the unionists voted for the political left. However, this faultline further deepened during Johnson’s period, when he periodically evoked partisan loyalty to get policy support and the resultant has been further divisions in loyalty and fragmentation within the conservative party. Under Johnson, voters were further disconnected from the grand old political parties, thus forcing the conservatives to forge a coalition with both nationalist and unionist voters who were not left-wing supporters.
Uniting the conservative party will be a political challenge for Liz Truss and she has shown her steadfast motivation by choosing a multi-ethnically represented cabinet.
Furthermore, a culture of executive centralism revived by Johnson, is yet to transition under Liz Truss. With a coterie-style of governance, Johnson revived authoritarian populism and put several committees and strategy units under direct leadership of a few cabinet members. In choosing a strong cabinet, Truss has already shown her dependence on it for all pressing matters and she will in all likelihood have to tread a balance between authoritarian management and democratic accountability.
The BREXIT economic maze to war-triggered energy crisis
As Johnson prepared to take the country out of the economic bloc, he failed to fully make his domestic market resilient to the aftershocks from the BREXIT. Rather in his final Prime Minister’s Questions session in the parliament, Johnson repeated a favorite refrain: Britain had the “fastest economic growth” among the G7. The Bank of England, today, projects that Britain will enter a recession before 2023, making it clear that Brexit may not have sunk the economy, but it was not opportune as well. In addition, the war in the Ukraine has deeply impacted the energy trade pushing the prices in the summer months. Households in the UK, today, are bracing for the energy price cap to rise by 80 per cent from October, after Ofgem, the industry regulator, confirmed the move at the end of last month.
On 6 September, the BBC has reported that Truss plans to spend up to $150 billion on freezing energy bills for the next 18 months, by offering loans to energy companies.However, what has not featured in Truss’s campaign policy are impact packages for the those affected disproportionally such as the poorer households, who typically spend a larger share of their income on basic essentials.
Healthcare and post COVID crisis
The cumulative impact from the inflations and lack of welfare fiscal packages to pump in more liquid assets in the hands of the people has been unemployment, strikes and the systemic breakdown of essential services such as the healthcare. Waiting times to receive health care are at their longest in recent history in the whole of the UK. This is in part because of the pandemic putting the National Health Service under greater strain, but it is also because of staff shortages and insufficient funding. For Truss, it would be imperative to consider a national health package to ease the funding crunch and ensure return of staffers to ease the workforce pressure.
Regional Challenges
Revival of ethnonationalist tensions in Northern Ireland
As much as BREXIT stoked questions on the power sharing dynamics in the Northern Ireland, it was Johnson’s way of sidelining the NI protocol and trying to substitute it with a domestic legislation that alienated the pro-British unionist community. The unionist versus nationalist faultline in the Northern Ireland, rendered acute by the BREXIT referendum vote, was more divided with Johnson’s constant tinkering with clauses agreed with the EU. The unionists who largely supported the BREXIT are now conservative sceptics. The next challenge for Liz Truss will be her policy stand over the Northern Ireland. Talks with the EU have halted and the bill has been heavily campaigned by Liz Truss as a foreign secretary. The Democratic Unionist Party in NI has refused to return to its power-sharing arrangement at Stormont until the protocol is changed. The key date for Liz Truss to remember will be 28 October when the deadline to restore the government at Stormont ends. In addition, on 16 September, the UK will have to respond to the legal charges brought by Brussels and Truss’s hardline approach on the matter could probably volte face.
The question over Scottish referendum
The question over Scottish referendum could strengthen under Liz Truss. At a time when Nicola Sturgeon is pressing for another independence referendum, the new government will need to seek a political arrangement on the same. In October 2022, the UK Supreme Court will consider whether Holyrood has the power to hold the referendum without Westminster's consent but with recent hard line campaign by Liz Truss, the relation between the two leaders have soured. “I feel like I’m a child of the union, I really believe we’re a family and we’re better together and I think the best thing to do with Nicola Sturgeon is ignore her,” said Truss in her election campaign statement. Her hawkish views on both Northern Ireland and the referendum in Scotland could mean further alienation and not mitigating the ethnonationalist challenges.
External Challenges
Support for Ukraine
Truss has pledged to boost defense spending to three per cent of GDP, which the analyst group the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) estimated will cost an additional $180 billion. Like Johnson, she has also decided to continue giving military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Britain has so far pledged around $3.8 billion. Under Johnson, Britain was an early and strong supporter of Ukraine’s efforts to resist Russia’s invasion. Truss, as foreign secretary, stood squarely behind Johnson’s Ukraine policy, supporting the transfer of heavy weaponry to Kyiv among other measures. In all likelihood, a policy of ‘strategic voice’ for Ukraine will strengthen under Liz Truss, at a time when the EU’s united front is oscillating between appeasement for gas and sanctions.
Hawkish views on China, Russia
The support for Ukraine is equally balanced by Truss’s hawkish view on Russia. She has since being a foreign secretary regarded the 2014-15 Minsk accords as a “totemic mistake.” Furthermore, in a big symbolic gesture, Truss’s staff had briefed The Times last week that she would officially declare China a national security “threat” after entering Downing Street. Truss’s hawkishness on China applies to military as well as economic issues. She was closely involved in the decision to ban Chinese telecoms firm Huawei from involvement in Britain’s 5G network, over national security concerns.
Relation with EU
Ending the distrust with the EU, one of the UK’s biggest trading partner, could be a challenge for Liz Truss. As she assumed office, the EU leaders have subterfuge their concern over a strong Eurosceptic as a leader. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission chief, tweeted that the UK and EU were partners, facing current challenges together - but that she hoped as prime minister, Liz Truss would be "constructive", respecting agreements previously reached between the two sides.
The reason for a better relation with the EU could probably ease its internal inflation. Despite BREXIT, the impacts from the EU has never ceased. When Germany is attempting to find alternatives to Russian energy, and bids aggressively for Norwegian gas - a source the UK already relies on – it has affected the prices, and potentially will further impact supply routes as well. Next, concerns over migration remains. As foreign secretary, Liz Truss promised to be “robust” with the French authorities to stop the rising number of refugees and other migrants trying to reach the UK across the English Channel. Yet in her electoral campaign, she has never chose to soothe her stand on the Anglo-French relation.
Transatlantic partnership
As Liz Truss assumes office, the US President Joe Biden in his congratulatory message also stressed the importance of reaching an agreement with the EU over post-Brexit legislation on Northern Ireland. The transatlantic partnership could be strained if Liz Truss pushes ahead with the legislation altering the Norther Ireland Protocol and for the US president proud of his Irish roots, treading the diplomatic show will be keenly watched.
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
GREECE
Prime Minister aims to keep communication lines with Turkey open
On 11 September, Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that Greece aimed to keep communication channels with Turkey functional, even after “unacceptable” comments by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Earlier, Erdogan accused Greece for occupying few demilitarized islands in the Aegean Sea, which has been a historic point of contention between the states. He also said that Turkey was ready to take necessary steps against Greece, when it saw fit. In response, Mitsotakis took a more moderate stance whereby he did not foresee an escalation of the conflict into an armed one. He said: “I don't believe this will ever happen. And if, God forbid, it happened, Turkey would receive an absolutely devastating response. And I think they know it very well… the competence of the Greek [armed] forces.” (“Greek PM wants to keep channels with Turkey open despite "unacceptable" comments,” Reuters, 11 September 2022)
IRELAND
Ireland begins payment scheme for artists affected by the COVID-19 pandemic
On 11 September, Ireland's government begun the scheme of paying 2000 artists, musicians, writers and performers EUR 325 per week. The move comes after the government plans for the Basic Income for the Arts scheme which was announced in January 2022. Recommended by the Irish Minister, Catherine Martin, the scheme is to mitigate the "unprecedented damage" caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 9000 people applied for the scheme of which 2000 were selected anonymously. The selected people will also be eligible for social welfare payments and other income sources as the scheme is not means tested. Which will be spent by the government of approximately EUR 25 million on the scheme, giving a breakdown of which Irish county the 2000 people reside in. Dublin recorded the highest number of recipients followed by Cork and Galway. (Robbie Meredith, “Covid-19: Irish government pays 'basic income' to artists,” BBC, 11 September 2022)
SPAIN
Famous novelist Javier Marias passes away at 70
On 11 September, one of Spain’s most prolific writers, Javier Marias passed away at the age of 70. He was ill with pneumonia, after contracting a bout of COVID-19 earlier. His publisher, Alfaguara announced the news in a brief statement. Born in 1951, Marias was touted by many as a candidate for the Nobel Prize for Literature. He has penned 16 novels and was also a member of Spain’s Royal Academy and an international member of the UK’s Royal Society of Literature. However, unwilling to be favoured by any particular government, he refused Spain’s EUR 20,000 national narrative prize for his novel, "The Infatuations," in 2012. Condolences for the author poured in after his passing. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez hailed Marias as “one of the great writers of our time.” Fellow writers like Rosa Montero, Eduardo Mendoza and the editor-in-chief of El Pais, Pepa Bueno also expressed their condolences about Marias’s passing. (“Spain: Award-winning author Javier Marias dies aged 70,” Deutsche Welle, 11 September 2022; Sam Jones, “Spanish novelist Javier Marías dies at home in Madrid aged 70,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022)
SWEDEN
Right-wing opposition closes gap in Sweden elections
On 11 September, Sweden conducted their general elections pitting the incumbent centre-left Social Democrats against the right-wing Sweden Democrats. While the results are uncertain, exit polls have showed that the Sweden Democrats have overtaken the moderates and closed the gap between themselves and the Social democrats. The election campaign as a run up to this election was extremely controversial. Tackling gun violence was one of the major issues for voters in this election, along with surging inflation and the energy crisis because of the war in Ukraine. The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, has said that gun crime across Sweden is increasing faster than anywhere else in Europe, as 42 people have died from shootings in 2022. All the parties contesting the elections have promised a crackdown on gang crime and gun violence. The vote count is expected to be finalized by 14 September. (Elsa Maishman & Alex Binley, “Sweden election: Result could take days as vote too close to call,” BBC, 12 September 2022; Maddy Savage, “Sweden election: Gang shootings cast shadow over vote,” BBC, 10 September 2022)
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland proposes to install nuclear waste storage facility near Germany’s border
On 10 September, Switzerland’s National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (Nagra) proposed the setting up of a nuclear waste storage facility on the border with Germany. The Federal Office of Energy said that Nördlich Lägern, to the north of Zurich has been suggested as the site for the facility. Nagra, which comprises of representatives of power plants and the government deals with the issue of disposal of radioactive wastes. According to an official at Nagra, Patrick Struder, the waste, sourced from five Swiss nuclear power plants will be stored in opalinus clay and lowered several hundred metres underground. However, the storage facility which will be a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive waste will need to be approved by Switzerland’s government and parliament, after Nagra submits a planning application by 2024. Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment has expressed concerns about the proximity of the repository to the German border. A representative from the German coordination office for the planned waste facility said that nuclear safety and uncontaminated drinking water supply must be looked into before the site is set up. (“Switzerland plans controversial nuclear waste storage facility near German border,” Deutsche Welle, 10 September 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
WHO European member to commence annual meeting
On 12 September, the 72nd session for the WHO Regional Committee for Europe (RC72) began. In the 3-day session, ministers of health and high-level public health experts from the 53 member states of the WHO will be taking part. The event is being hosted in Tel Aviv by the Health Ministry of Israel, but will follow a hybrid format. The delegates will discuss the progress made since 2020 and will cover issues like “empowerment through digital health, health promotion through behavioural and cultural insights, addressing health worker shortages and access to affordable medicines.” They also aim for a consensus on the updated regional action plans like ending cervical cancer, reducing alcohol consumption, pushing for accelerated action to tackle tuberculosis, HIV, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections. Commissioning more research and diagnostics on people suffering from long COVID, the current monkeypox outbreak and the health impacts of the war in Ukraine is also part of the agenda. (“Countdown to the annual meeting of ministers setting the health agenda across the European Region,” who.int, 10 September 2022)
Death toll of migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Tunisia reaches 11
On 10 September, the death toll of migrants from Tunisia who died in a shipwreck on their way to Italy, reached 11. The boat, carrying 37 migrants had set off from the Sfax region in Tunisia, which has become a major departure point for migrants trying to enter into Europe. Other than the 11 deceased, 12 people are still missing and 14 have been rescued by Tunisia’s coastguard. The International Organization for Migration reports that 1033 migrants have been classified as dead or missing while attempting to cross the central Mediterranean. According to the EU border agency Frontex, 52,000 irregular entries, mainly from Tunisia, Egypt and Bangladesh have been recorded via the central Mediterranean route between January to August 2022. (Alex Binley, “Tunisia: Eleven migrants die in latest Mediterranean accident,” BBC, 12 September 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 199 & 200
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav
War on the ground
On 10 September, Ukraine’s counter offensive in the north-east, south, has led to the retreatment of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. On 10 September, the Ukraine forces reported on gaining back the control of rail hub of Kupiansk, and Izium which served as the base for Russian forces. The same was observed when Russian officials confirmed on the movement of its troops from Balakliia and Izium to meet its efforts in Donbas. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his address declared on winning back 2000 square kilometres from the counter offensive against Russia. One of the residents from Izium stated: “Russian occupying forces were rapidly withdrawing, leaving ammunition and equipment behind.”
Izium is seen as strategic points in war due to its dual geographic link with Donbas and Black Sea, allowing Russian forces to launch attacks in Donbas region. With the distractive southern offensive, Ukraine captured back more than third of Kharkiv region.
On 10 September, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal asked the country’s foreign partners to increase their cooperation with International Monetary Fund during his speech at Yalta European Strategy Annual Meeting held in Kyiv. According to Shmyhal, IMF has been significant in Ukraine’s financial development from the 2014 Crimean invasion until Russia’s attack in 2022. He said that Ukraine needs IMF aid to go through the war. In the meeting, he added that Ukraine was set to fulfil all seven criteria required to become a member of the EU by the end of 2022. Ukraine intends to become a full-fledged EU member in two years.
On the same day, Minsk in Belarus and Sevastopol in Russia-occupied Crimea signed an agreement on cooperation on the export and import of goods, urban economy, in the fields of education, culture, science, youth policy and patriotic education. The agreement was signed by Mayor Vladimir Kukharev and Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhayev. Although Belarus has not recognized the Russian-annexed Crimean territory, the self-proclaimed Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko acknowledges the sovereignty of the region.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 09 September, President Vladimir Putin met the permanent members of Russia’s Security Council. He thanked them for participating in the Eastern Economic Forum, saying that it has yielded “good results.” He referred to the criticism to his comments about Ukraine’s grains not going to the poorest countries and said that the Foreign Ministry will contact its partners about the issue. Putin alleged that most of the grains from the UN-brokered deal were going to the EU, while only two ships with only three per cent of the total grains exported have been sent to the poorest countries like Yemen and Djibouti. Putin said: “We believe it to be right to ramp up deliveries to the poorest countries.” He also expressed readiness to supply fertilizers to the poorest nations free of charge.
On the same day, RIA Novosti reported a three to four kilometer line of refugees near the Logachvka checkpoint on the border between Kharkiv and Russia. This is in response to the increased attacks in Kharkiv, where Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive. The Russian head of the Kharkiv region, Vitaly Ganchev also appealed to residents to evacuate if their homes fell in the war zone. He said the border service of Russia would arrange for all necessary assistance, if they cross into the country.
On the same day, the sixth reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was switched off due to a continued attack on the plant by Ukraine, RT reported. Due to the risk of an accident, Ukrainian state-owned company Energoatom said it has cold shut down the last unit, forcing the nuclear facility to halt.
On the 10 September, the Russian military and the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk troops were seen withdrawing from Izyum and Balakleya in the Donetsk region. The withdrawal comes after Ukraine conducted a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 10 September, the European Commission called the member states to revalue their regulations based on origin and risk factor in providing visas to Russia tourists. According to EU home affairs commissioner: “We should not be naive, Putin’s aim is to destroy the EU and he would like to attack us where we are weakest.”
On 11 September, France President Emmanuel Macron, and Putin exchanged accusations over the increasing threat of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia released a statement saying, it only withdrew attention on the Ukraine attacks on the plant, while the Macron administration, in its statement accused Russia for posing a nuclear threat and urged the Russian forces to remove heavy and light weapons from the nuclear plant zone and to follow the safety recommendations given by IAEA.
The UK Defence Ministry in its intelligence update, reported on the Russian forces movement post Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It stated that Russia’s prediction on Ukraine’s southern offensive served as a distraction for Ukraine to advance in the north of Kharkiv.
On 09 September, the Wall Street Journal reported on the range of Howitzers and artillery received by Ukraine so far from US, its allies and NATO. Starting from Soviet-era artillery, German Panzerhaubitze which are one of the high-end howitzer model with ability to aim with precision, and automated loading, France’s Caesar howitzer which can travel 600 kilometres without refuelling, US’s 155mm self-propelled howitzer, Austria’s M109A5Ö which was supplied by Lativia, and UK’s M109A4BE. Apart from this Poland and Czech Republic have also given 2S1 Gvozdikas artillery systems to Ukraine.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 11 September, (IAEA) Chief Rafael Grossi warned over the growing concern of new set of attacks in Zaporizhzhia. He said: “Shelling has caused a complete blackout in Energodar (town) and compromised the safe operation of the nearby Zaporizhzhia (plant).” Expressing objection over, he disclosed that close to 200 people were detained by Russia and were ill-treated.
References
“Denys Shmyhal: We are working with our partners to intensify cooperation with the IMF,” gov.ua, 11 September 2022
“Denys Shmyhal: We have the ambition to become a full-fledged member of the European Union in a maximum of two years,” gov.ua, 11 September 2022
“Minsk and occupied Sevastopol agree to ‘cooperate’,” Kyiv Post, 11 September 2022
“Lavrov assessed the risks of delaying negotiations with Ukraine,” LENTA.RU, 11 September 2022
“Election campaign in Russia is going smoothly — official,” TASS, 11 September 2022
“Last power unit switched off at Zaporozhye nuclear plant,” RT, 11 September 2022
“Russian troops withdraw from several settlements in Ukraine – media,” RT, 10 September 2022
“Russian military explains partial withdrawal,” RT, 10 September 2022
“RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT,” ISW, 11 September 2022
“Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine,” Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 11 September 2022
“Ukraine-Russia war latest: what we know on day 200 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022
“Putin and Macron trade blame over risk at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022
“Ukraine-Russia war latest: what we know on day 199 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022, 11 September 2022
“Ukrainian counter-offensive in north-east inflicts a defeat on Moscow,” The Guardian, 11 September 2022, 11 September 2022
“Ukraine Uses Array of Howitzers to Repel Russia’s Invasion,” WSJ, 09 September 2022
“Russia pulls back from Kharkiv area as Ukrainian forces make major gains,” pbs.org, 10 September 2022
“Russia-Ukraine updates: Russian forces withdraw from key areas in Kharkiv region,” Deutche Welle, 11 September 2022