NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
Putin signs decree for partial mobilization in Russia: What has been the response?
On 21 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree declaring “partial mobilization in Russian Federation.” The move comes after Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv, Izyum and Kherson regions. In his speech to the Russian’s, he highlighted the freeing of residents from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, immediate need to protest Russia’s sovereignty, Ukraine’s claims to nuclear weapons, called the people from different ages and nationalities to unite in fighting for Russia. He said: “…talking specifically about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all those who served in the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience.”
What is the decree about?
First, recruitment of people into Russia’s Armed Forces. Russians who already have the “status of military personnel serving,” those who have reached the age limit set by the military, fulfilling the health conditions recognised by the military (some who are unfit and replaceable can be excepted upon their wish to serve), and prisoners are eligible to become part of the Russian Military.
Second, role of the government in the mobilization. The decree mandates the government to establish the follow to go forward with the partial mobilization process. One, setting a threshold to pay those recruited to serve under the mobilization equivalent to those serving already in the military. Two, providing terms for dismissal. Three, to financial aid and adopt needed measures to help the partial mobilization activities such as “troops and military formations.” Four, high rank official to be involved in the recruitment process to help attain the target number in the given time.
Third, entitlement to serve or exit the mobilisation. Those recruited will be provided contracts and are expected to serve until the “end of the period of partial mobilization.” A separate provision is allotted for the right of Deferment, if a citizen wishes to exit from the conscription from any of the Russian military organizations. As per the Decree, the category of citizens who can avail the exception and granting of rights will be reserved with the government.
What has been the response within Russia?
In response to the announcement of “Partial Mobilisation,” a set of people gathered for “anti-mobilisation” protests broke out in Russia. As of 22 September, close to 1330 people were detained across 42 cities.
Mapping of the protests
Maximum number of detained were found to be in the districts of Moscow city (539), St. Petersburg (482), Yekaterinburg (51), Permian (30), Chelyabinsk (26), Ufa (23), Krasnoyarsk (18), Voronezh (17), Krasnodar (14), Tver (13), Saratov (12), Kaliningrad and Ryazan (11), Irkutsk (9), Petrozavodsk (9), Arkhangelsk (8), Tula, Korolev, Novosibirsk, Ulan-Ude, Zheleznogorsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Volgograd, Salavat and more districts. Except, Krasnoyarsk, Yekaterinburg, and Chelyabinsk in the east-central Russia (central Siberia), the protests are found to be widespread across the north, center and south of Western Russia.
Fleeing out of Russia
Another set of Russian seeing this as a threat fled to Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Finland, Istanbul, Belgrade, and neighbouring countries to avoid joining the military mobilisation. These countries are of particular target due to non-requirement of visas, and their flexible visa rules saw a rush in their border crossings after the passing of the decree. While Germany and the EU agreed to open their border for asylum seekers who strongly object Russia, the Baltic states and the Czech Republic said that they would restrict entry.
References
"Lists of detainees in connection with actions against mobilization on September 21," ovd.news, 22 September 2022
"Message from the President of the Russian Federation," Kremlin.ru, 21 September 2022
"Decree "On the announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation"," Kremlin.ru, 21 September 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
FRANCE
France inaugurates first offshore wind firm
On 22 September, France’s President Macron visited Saint-Nazaire, to inaugurate its first offshore wind farm. The farm has 80 turbines and is the first of the 50 such facilities that France aims to build by 2050. In comparison to other European states, France has been lagging behind in terms of energy production as it tries to become more independent with their electricity production. While around 67 per cent of France’s electricity is produced by nuclear power, France is also aiming to increase its share of energy from renewable sources to 23 per cent by 2023. Currently, France has manged to reach only 19 per cent putting it in 17th position in the EU, where the average of the 27 member-states is 22 per cent. (“Macron opens France's first offshore wind farm amid European energy crisis,” France 24, 22 September 2022)
ITALY
Italy’s upcoming elections likely to witness a revival of the Five Star Movement
On 22 September, Euronews reported on the likelihood of the revival of the Five Star Movement in Italy, after Guiseppe Conte’s resignation as Italy’s prime minister in 2021. Criticized heavily for the way Conte handled Italy’s COVID 19 response, he also was a hardliner on issues like security, immigration and trade. In Italy’s upcoming general elections, Conte is leading the Five Star Movement, having taken over the party’s presidency from Luigi di Maio in 2021. As the Five Star Movement forms a minor party in the election race, Conte hopes to win over the electorate with mandates like scrapping the regional business tax and introducing a minimum wage. (“Giuseppe Conte: Italy's ex-PM bids to revive Five Star Movement,” Euronews, 22 September 2022)
MONTENEGRO
Demands foreign consultants to solve murder and attack cases on journalists
On 22 September, a minister without a portfolio in Montenegro, Zoran Miljanic said that they have asked foreign help to solve the old cases of attacks on journalists. Miljanic informed that experts from the US and the UK, especially from intelligence services like the FBI will consult with Montenegrin authorities to solve these cases. Montenegro has historically faced an issue with establishing an environment conducive for investigative journalism and media freedom. The European Commission’s 2021 progress report and US State Department’s March report on human rights also pointed this problem out. Miljanic said that the first case to be discussed would be editor-in-chief and owner of the daily newspaper Dan, Dusko Jovanovic’s murder in 2004, which has still not been closed.
NORTHERN IRELAND
Census reveals more Catholics than Protestants for first time
On 22 September, Northern Ireland released data from the 2021 census saying that for the first time, Catholics outnumber Protestants in the state. According to the census, 43.4 per cent of the population are from Protestant or other Christian background, while 43.48 are Catholic or from a Catholic background. Protestants are the group that support the unionist sentiment and want to safeguard Northern Ireland’s connection with the UK, while the Catholics, who are pro-Irish want to unite with the Republic of Ireland. While the difference between the two groups is not major, it might influence the results of a referendum, if one is conducted. (Rory Carroll, “Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for first time,” The Guardian, 22 September 2022)
SPAIN
Wealthiest to be taxed one percent to ease inflation
On 22 September, Spain's government announced a temporary tax on the one per cent of the wealthiest of Spain's population. The tax is a part of the various measures taken by the government to help citizens deal with rising inflation, like providing stipends to students to stay in school, making public transport free and subsidizing petrol. Finance Minister Maria Jesus Montero said that it was important for the government to finance aid to ease the pressure of inflation on the “middle class and workers.” However, Montero or her ministry has not yet furnished the details of how much the tax rate would be. (“Spain plans temporary wealth tax amid high inflation,” Deutsche Welle, 22 September 2022)
Spain’s Mar Menor lagoon gets personhood status for increased protection
On 21 September, Europe’s largest salt-water lagoon in Spain, the Mer Menor lagoon was granted personhood status. The World Wildlife Fund marks the lagoon as a home to various species of fish, seahorse and the endangered European eel. However, periodic die-offs of marine life in the lagoon has been common for many years because of poor sewage systems, fertilizers, and discharge from mining activities. Thus, over 640,000 people supported a petition to safeguard the lagoon by granting it personhood status, and the Spanish Senate ratified it. The personhood status codifies that the lagoon has a right to “to exist as an ecosystem and to evolve naturally”, and to its protection, conservation and restoration. Caretakers who work in the area, including local officials, citizens and scientists, will now represent the 1600 square kilometres of the lagoon. (“Endangered Mar Menor lagoon in Spain granted legal status as a person,” The Guardian, 21 September 2022; Angela Symons, “Spain makes history by giving personhood status to salt-water lagoon, thanks to 600,000 citizens,” Euronews, 22 September 2022)
THE UK
Fracking to be resumed due to energy crisis despite environmental concerns
On 22 September, the UK government lifted the ban on fracking. The suspension was introduced in 2019 after fracking was linked to earth tremors and minor drilling. The decision to revoke the ban is accompanied by a review published by the British Geological Survey (BGS) which says that the understanding about the impacts of such drilling on tremors is limited. The move has triggered the activists and locals who had campaigned against fracking, who said that the government was willing to throw communities under the bus by forcing them to accept a higher degree of risk. Given the impending energy crisis, the Business and Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg responded to the allegation and said: “… tolerating a higher degree of risk and disturbance appears to us (the government) to be in the national interest given the circumstances.” (Esme Stallard, “Fracking ban lifted, government announces,” BBC, 22 September 2022)
REGIONAL
European Commission report on importance of culture for sustainable development
On 22 September, the European Commission published a report titled “Stormy Times: Nature and humans: Cultural courage for change”, ahead of the UNESCO's World Conference on Cultural Policies and Sustainable Development, scheduled from 28 to 30 September 2022. The report was prepared by 50 experts from 25 EU member-states who worked under the Open Method of Coordination under the European Commission. First, the report says that human development should factor in all facets of culture; second, it formulates a set of recommendations to better relations between humans and nature and use cultural imagination to develop a liveable, sustainable future. Third, it also mentions that future generations must be mobilised to meet this goal. (“Experts put forward recommendations on how to harness the power of culture for sustainable development,” ec.europa.eu, 22 September 2022)
European Commission and France pledge donations to Global Funds
On 22 September, at the UN General Assembly Summit, the European Commission announced that it would be donating EUR 715 million to Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. It marks the largest donation to ever be given by the Commission. The amount has been allocated for the 2023-25 period and is an addition to the EUR 150 million already given by the commission to the Global Fund in 2022 for COVID 19 responses. Part of the donation will be reserved to promote research and development of new treatment, vaccines and mitigation of other transmittable diseases. Additionally, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would give EUR 300 million to the Global Fund separately. (Clara Bauer-Babef, “EU to donate historic €715 million to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria,” Euractiv, 22 September 2022)
EU’s privacy supervisor sues European Parliament over Europol reform
On 22 September, POLITICO reported on European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) filed a legal challenge with the Court of Justice of the EU. In January 2022, Europol was ordered by the EDP to delete data on individuals with no criminal records or links, after it had allegedly misused their personal data. However, in June, the MEPs enacted a mandate which legalized these practices the EDPS had deemed illegal. Thus, suing the European Parliament, the EDPS said: “The contested provisions establish a worrying precedent… rule of law and EDPS independence under threat.” No response from the European Council or the Parliament has been received so far. (Vincent Manancourt, “EU privacy watchdog sues lawmakers over new Europol mandate,” POLITICO, 22 September 2022)
Europe’s parliamentarians urge the Commission to “make haste” with the EU-Taiwan investment deal
On 21 September, 35 parliamentarians from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark and Ukraine and the European Parliament wrote a joint letter to the EU’s leadership like the Presidents of the European Commission and the European Council European Commissioner for Trade and Foreign Policy Chief. The letter urges the Commission to kickstart the EU-Taiwan Bilateral Investment Agreement. The parliamentarians say that stronger ties with Taiwan would be beneficial in many regards. The letter says: “To deepen our relationship with our democratic Taiwanese friends would not only be mutually beneficial but also of great geo-economic importance, as the EU is greatly dependent on highly advanced semiconductors produced in Taiwan." Even though the EU follows the “One China” Policy, it maintains commercial relations with Taiwan, which is the EU’s 12th largest trading partner in 2021. (Jorge Liboreiro, “European lawmakers issue joint appeal calling for EU-Taiwan investment deal,” Euronews, 21 September 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 211
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 22 September, On the same day, the fourth vessel chartered by the UN World Food Programme, the bulk carrier BC VANESSA, left the Odesa port to deliver 30000 tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan. So far, a total of 192 ships loaded with 4.38 million tonnes of Ukrainian crops left the Odesa port since the launch of the UN ‘grain initiative’. The ships have been sent to starving countries such as Ethiopia, Yemen and Afghanistan, which face a severe food security crisis.
On the same day, at an event hosted by the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, Ukraine President’s economic advisor, Oleg Ustenko, said that Ukraine had incurred damage of almost USD one trillion, directly or indirectly, due to the ongoing war. The estimated cost of the war is five times of Ukraine’s pre-war annual GDP. The destruction of infrastructures and displacement of people has significantly impacted the fall of the country’s economy. Even after drastically cutting government expenditure, and the preparedness of the West to provide financial aid to Ukraine, it has been short of USD 4.9 billion every month even after drastically cutting government expenditure.
On 21 September, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shymhal stated that Ukraine needs international help for post-war reconstruction. Speaking at the UN Global Compact high-level event in New York, he urged foreign investors to help with the country’s recovery, and said that the potential cost of the rebuilding is USD 750 billion in the years ahead.. He emphasized, "...It is the private sector that should become one of the main drivers of reconstruction," and Ukraine is creating various military risk insurance instruments. Shymhal assured that there would be transparency to the recovery process and follow the principle of "rebuilding better than it was." He also said that Russia's frozen assets should be used for reconstruction as it was the aggressor.
In a statement issued by Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces on Facebook, it was reported that Ukraine had killed around 55510 Russian forces from the start of the war. So far, 2245 Russian tanks, 4804 armoured vehicles, 1342 artillery systems, 318 multiple launch rocket systems, 170 air defence systems, 254 warplanes, 219 helicopters, 950 operational-tactical UAVs, 241 cruise missiles, 15 warships, 3650 trucks and tankers, and 125 specialized pieces of equipment were destroyed by the Ukrainian forces. Russia has also suffered considerable losses in the Kramatorsk and the Donetsk directions.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
Russia-owned defence technology corporation, Rostek, plans to increase its production speed of Su-57 5th-generation stealth jet fighters and supply the new jet fighters to the Russian Air Force by the end of 2022. The production plan is expanding and modernizing to meet the increasing demands. The ramping up of Su-57 jet fighters' production started following the instruction of equipping more hardware for the military from Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
Following the announcement by Putin regarding partial mobilization, several protests erupted in Moscow streets without the authorities' approval. Hundreds were arrested and faced fines or prison by Moscow's authorities as the protest was deemed unauthorized. The jail term required a court hearing.
On 22 September, Russia's Senator of the Federation Council Andrei Klimov responded to the EU’s head of diplomacy, Josep Borrell’s announcement regarding the bloc's plan to impose new sanctions on Russia. The EU is considering the new sanctions as an answer to Russia conducting referendums in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In this context, Klimov said that the decision to accept these regions into Russia depended on their respective f its authorities. He added that the territories are an integral part of Russia and that the EU should concentrate on its citizens first.
Russia's spokesperson of the President, Dmitry Peskov, rejected the claim of calling up one million reservists that were allegedly part of the classified seventh paragraph of the partial mobilization decree. He emphasized on Shoigu’s announcement about calling up 300000 people but not all at once.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 22 September, the EU foreign ministers agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia and increase its weapons supply to Ukraine following Putin's announcement of partial mobilization at the UN. Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel said that Putin's announcement of nuclear weapons usage showed his desperation and readiness to destroy Ukraine. The EU ministers will formalize the new sanctions package in the mid-October formal meeting.
The EU condemned Russia's plan to conduct illegal referenda in DPR, LPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson territory. It also condemned Russia's partial mobilization call. The EU feels that Russia is violating the UN charter by conducting the referenda thereby violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The bloc also supported Ukraine and said it would increase its backing until Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine.
On the same issues, Turkey refused to acknowledge the illegal referenda conducted in the four Russian-controlled regions. It condemned Russia's plans and said Turkey would not recognize the illegitimate referendum. Turkey has not recognized the annexation of Crimea in 2014 till now.
The Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, the UK, Germany, Italy and Ukraine and senior authorities from the US, Switzerland, and South Korea expressed their concerns about the safety and security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. They said they supported IAEA's findings and urged Russia to follow the agency's advice. The officials asked Russia to withdraw from the ZNPP and hand over the control to Ukraine.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in his speech at his first external faction meeting in Balatonalmadi that the war in Ukraine will continue and Hungary should prepare its defence if the conflict spills over into the country. According to Orban, the EU's sanctions on Russia are causing economic problems, food insecurities, an energy crisis and inflation. In his closing remarks, he said that Hungary has prepared and worked hard to secure its energy supply and also that Hungary will emerge from the crisis victoriously.
As per Finland's Border Guards asylum applications for those escaping from military conscription in Russia will be processed until the Finnish leaders say they oppose it. Finland has 11 official crossing points with Russia, and on 21 September, 4800 Russians crossed the border following the announcement of partial mobilization by Putin. The final decision from the Finnish parliament is yet to be confirmed.
On 22 September, Sweden's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ann Linde, tweeted that Sweden condemns the widespread detainment of peaceful protestors in the streets of Russia by Russian authorities after the announcement of partial mobilization. She said that the protestors gained respect from Sweden.
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemned Putin's announcement of partial mobilization and threat of nuclear weapons usage. He added that the mobilisation order displays the failure of Putin's campaign in Ukraine to his Russian citizens.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 21 September, IAEA General Director Rafael Grossi wrote on his Twitter that he had a meeting with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Grossi and Kuleba discussed the positive and active consultation on creating a Safety and Security Protection Zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
On the same day, North Korea's Ministry of National Defence's Vice Director of the General Bureau of Equipment released a rare press statement that the allegations by the US against North Korea of providing arms to Russia were false. Denying the accusations, he said that the US is spreading false rumours of North Korea having weapons trade with Russia. He also added that they have never exported nor will export arms and ammunition to Russia.
Kyrgyzstan’s embassy in Moscow and Uzbekistan’s the Prosecutor-General's Office of another Central Asian state warned its citizens who are working as migrant labourers in Russia about the consequences of joining the partial mobilization call. Both states informed their citizens about the penalty of ten years in prison if they joined the Russian army. The Kyrgyz authorities said they would deem those working for the Russian military mercenaries.
References
“Russian Invasion Has Cost Ukraine ‘$1 Trillion’,” Kyiv Post, 22 September 2022
Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, “"Grain Initiative": the fourth vessel chartered by the UN left with Ukrainian wheat for Afghanistan,” Facebook, 22 September 2022
“Ukraine sends 120,000 t of grain as part of UN World Food Programme,” Ukrinform, 22 September 2022
“The Prime Minister of Ukraine and the President of Poland opened an event on post-war reconstruction in New York,” kmu.gov.ua, 22 September 2022
“Ukraine’s Armed Forces already eliminated 55,510 Russian invaders,” Ukrinform, 22 September 2022
“Russia to get new batch of 5th-generation fighter jets,” RT, 22 September 2022
“Detentions at unauthorized ‘anti-mobilization’ protests in Russia,” RT, 21 September 2022
“Moscow responded to EU plans to impose new sanctions due to referendums,” LENTA.RU, 22 September 2022
“Peskov denied information about plans to mobilize a million people,” ria.ru, 22 September 2022
Tara Fair, “Putin to order 1 million soldiers to fight Ukraine - classified section of decree exposed,” express.co.uk, 22 September 2022
“Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” consilium.europa.eu, 22 September 2022
John Irish and Michelle Nichols, “EU ministers agree to press ahead with new Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
“Turkey Condemns Russia’s ‘illegitimate’ Votes in Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 22 September 2022
“Nuclear Safety: Joint statement on the safety and security of civil nuclear facilities in armed conflicts,” eeas.europa.eu, 21 September 2022
“Viktor Orbán: Repeal the sanctions in Brussels!,” magyarnemzet.hu, 21 September 2022
Nikolaj Nielsen, “Finnish border guards will allow fleeing Russians to enter,” euobserver, 22 September 2022
Ann Linde, “Condemn widespread arbitrary arrests of peaceful protesters in Russia,” Twitter, 22 September 2022
Shaun Walker, “Russia trades Azov fighters for Putin ally in biggest prisoner swap of Ukraine war,” The Guardian, 22 September 2022
Ismail Shakil, “Putin's behavior sign of failing Ukraine invasion, says Canada's Trudeau,” Reuters, 22 September 2022
Rafael Mariano Grossi, “We have begun constructive and active consultations,” Twitter, 21 September 2022
“Vice Director General of General Bureau of Equipment of Ministry of National Defence of DPRK Issues Press Statement,” kcnawatch.org, 22 September 2022
“Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan Warn Citizens Of Repercussions For Joining Russian Forces In Ukraine,” rferl.org, 22 September 2022