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29 September 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #319

Italyâ€™s far-right wins 2022 Elections: Result analysis | War in Ukraine: Day 217

First female Commander heads ISS; 2022 migrant pattern similar to 2015 in the Netherlands; The EU funds Cyprus for fisheries programme

Photo : NIAS Team

IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Italy’s far-right wins 2022 Elections: Result analysis and the complexity in its electoral system

On 25 September, the voting for Italy’s general elections took place. Amongst the four competing parties, the Right alliance emerged as the clear winner with a majority in the Chamber of Duties and Deputies of the Senate. The Right alliance was headed by Giorgia Meloni from the Brothers of Italy, joined by League, Forza-Italia, and Nio Moderati parties winning 237 seats in the lower house and 115 seats in the upper house. Whereas the left alliance led by Enrico Letta from the Democratic Party along with the Green/left alliance, Più Europa, and Impegno Civico were able to gain only 85:44 seats in both houses.

Election result analysis
Italy’s major parties who have been part of the internal political crisis are the Five Star Movement, the League, the Democratic Party, Forza Italia (previously center-right), and the Brothers of Italy. Comparing 2013, 2018, and 2022 elections, the Brothers of Italia which began competing in 2013, with two per cent, increased to 4.3 per cent in 2018 and gained a major share of votes in the 2022 elections with 26 per cent. Whereas, the League and Five Star Movement who have been at the center of Italy’s political crisis won a major number of votes only in the 2018 elections with 17.4 per cent and 32.7 percent. In the case of the Democratic Party, which won the 2013 elections with 25.4 per cent dropped down to 19 and has been consistent with the same proportion in 2022. Lastly, Forza Italia, which was formerly the center-right party led by Silvio Berlusconi (Four times Prime Minister) has declined from 21.6 per cent in 2013 to 8.11 in the 2022 elections.

Italy’s ever-changing electoral system
The passing of reforms has never stopped in the Italian Parliament. It began in the 1980s to bring stability to the electoral systems but had only become more complex. The 2018 elections were held under the Rosato law which was approved in 1993, where 75 per cent of the Members of Parliament (MPs) were chosen under single-member constituencies and 25 per cent under proportional representation. In the end, no majority was obtained due to close competition between the competing parties. In 2022, the elections were held under the Rosatellum bis law enacted in 2017 where 62.5 per cent will be elected through proportional representation and 32.5 per cent through a first-past-the-post basis. Out of which 12 MPs and four senators can be elected by overseas citizens and for a party to get a seat in the Parliament it has to gain three per cent and for a coalition 10. Under the new system MPs and senators have “multiple candidacies,” where one can compete in several constituencies as a single member and as part of the coalition. It also reduced the voting age limit from 25 to 18 in the 2019 reform. The latest is the 2020 reform, which reduced “the number of MPs in the Parliament from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies and from 315 to 200 in the Senate.” With the far-right claiming a clear victory, uncertainty lies if the coalition will sustain for five years or if the diverging interest will crack down on the unity and add to the continuing political chaos.

References
Marie Pouzadoux, “How does the Italian electoral system work?,” 27 September 2022
Antonio Voce and Seán Clarke, “Italian election 2022: live official results,”
Gianfranco Baldini, Andrea Pedrazzani, and Luca Pinto “How Italy experienced (yet another) electoral system and why it may soon change it again,” 08 May 2018
Giuseppe Ricotta “Populists Gain in Italian ElectionBookmark Print Share,” Lazard Asset Management, 06 May 2018

IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh

CYPRUS
Cyprus receives funding for the fisheries programme
On 28 September the European Commission allotted EUR 38.8 million from the European Maritime Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund (EMFAF) Programme to Cypriot Programme Fisheries 2021-2027 of Cyprus. This funding will be used to apply the EU Common Fisheries Policy and other priorities from the European Green Deal and help Cyprus to transition its fishing and aquaculture sector into a sustainable through innovation and digital growth. The fund is also aimed towards marine protection and boosting profits. The Commission also looks to invest in superior fishing vessels which have good safety, efficiency, and working environment and improve decarbonisation. Cyprus will now be able to comply with the landing obligation as the fund also looks to advance IT tools and their use. (“European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund 2021-2027: Commission adopts €38.3 million programme for Cyprus”, ec.europa.eu, 28 September 2022)

THE NETHERLANDS
The number of asylum applications equals the levels of the 2015 migrant crisis
On 28 September new data was released on the number of pending applications before the Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) which reflected the 2015 data. Around 30,000 applications have been received in the Netherlands, which are yet to be responded. The lag was due to lack of funds to IND resulting lay off of staff. T he main reasons for this crisis is from Netherlands housing crisis and refusal of some localities to house migrants for the same. There has been a call for a review of the asylum-granting system of the Netherlands and the preferential treatment of Ukraine asylum applicants. (“Backlog for Dutch asylum applicants as high as during the 2015 migrant crisis”, euronews, 28 September 2022)

THE UK
Bank of England intervenes to prevent economic fallout but Treasury reject the move
On 28 September the Bank of England intervened in the financial market to prevent a financial crisis. The Bank announced that it will buy the necessary amount of government bonds to maintain interest rates and return orders in the markets. The tax cuts amounting to USD 45 billion announced on 23 September created panic among investors as the government planned to borrow funds to finance the budget leading to fall in the pound value and increased borrowing costs. The Banks plan of buying bonds is to prevent an economic fallout and to avoid increase in interest rates to protect the pound and curb inflation. These uncertainties are said to hit homeowners greatly as they will be paying more mortgages in the coming days. The Treasury rejected the bank’s move and said that the government will still go forward with the budget as it deems to result in economic benefit. (“Bank of England intervenes to avert credit crunch, economic fallout“, Washington Post & ”Bank of England steps in to calm markets“, BBC, 28 September 2022)

ECONOMY
IMF rebukes new budget plans
On 28 September the IMF issued a statement criticizing the new tax plans introduced by the government. As per IMF cuts would increase the cost-of-living crisis and existing economic inequality. After these criticisms, the pound fell to USD 1.06 after it reached a low of USD 1.03. One of IMF’s key role is to help member countries through early economic caution. This indicates the need to address the larger concern of other member states which is likely to be affected due to UK’s crisis. Adnan Mazarei, an ex-deputy director of the IMF said that it was rare for the organization to comment on risky policies of the G7 countries. In a statement, the IMF asked that the UK government to re-examine the tax measures in the 23 November budget. (“IMF openly criticises UK government tax plans”, BBC, 28 September)

SPACE
Change of command in the International Space Station
On 28 September Samantha Cristoforetti, an Italian astronaut assumed the command of the International Space Station (ISS) from Oleg Artemyev. She is the first female and the fifth European astronaut to take command. In her statement, despite tensions on land, astronauts have worked side by side in the ISS which Cristoforetti hopes to continue. In her stint as commander, she will be working with the members of Expedition 68 and will undertaking operations with them. She will also be in contact with the team on Earth to ensure operations smoothly. (“Commander Cristoforetti: International Space Station is a 'beacon of hope'”, Deutsche Welle, 28 September 2022)

REGIONAL
HIMARS rocket system showcased in Latvia
On 28 September the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) was demonstrated in Latvia as a part of a military training exercise. The system was flown in from Germany to show NATO’s commitment to safeguarding the Baltics. According to the Commander of the National Armed Forces Leonids Kalnins, the exercise boosts confidence in taking the swift action by allies in times of crisis. The US Ambassador to Latvia John Carwile reiterated NATO’s collective defence strategy (Article 5) and its importance to the allies. After this exercise, the three Baltic states ordered for the import of the HIMARS. The rocket launcher is of American origin and has helped greatly in Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion. (“NATO demonstrates HIMARS rocket system in Latvia in a display of force”, euronews, 28 September 2022)

War in Ukraine: Day 217
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the Ground
On 28 September, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy addressed the UNSC and urged the international community to strengthen its response against Russia's recent actions. He said that Russia conducting the illegal referendums in Ukraine’s occupied regions is violating the UN charter. In the same context, he requested the members of the UNSC not to delay action and said that Ukraine will need more support from the international community if they have to protest against the referendums. Melitopol mayor Ivan Federov alleged that only 0.5 per cent of the total residents in Zaporizhzhia had taken part in the voting process.

On the same day, Zelenskyy spoke with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He thanked him for continuous mediation efforts by Turkey, especially with regard to the recent exchange of 250 prisoners of war from Russia. Turkey’s stance on denouncing the referendums was appreciated by Zelenskyy. Erdogan said that would be ready to mediate the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

On 28 September, AP News reported that according to Zelenskyy, referendums are seen as an additional provocation and any peace talks with Russia would be difficult if Putin is in power, trying to annex the four regions in LPR, DPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry called on the EU, NATO, and G7 member states to impose more sanctions on Russia and increase military aid to Ukraine.

On 28 September, Ukraine spokesperson to Republic of Crimea, Tamila Tasheva, stated that 1500draft notices were issues to Crimean Tartars, and those issued were unproportional to the population of the Tatars present and that the actual number of mobilized people from Crimea was unclear.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 28 September, on the issue of the annexation of Ukrainian territories into Russia, Senator Olga Kovitidi warned that even though the referendums were completed the entire process of annexation might take five to 10 years. She referred to how long it took for Crimea to be annexed to substantiate her claim. However, she said that some issues especially related to social support and social security would be resolved quickly. Kovitidi remarked me after Russia published the results of the referendums.

On 27 September, Russia released the results of the referendums held in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Even though the efficacy and validity of the results have been questioned, as per data released by Russia Foreign Affairs Ministry, in the LPR, 98.42 per cent of residents and in the DPR 99.23 per cent people voted to join Russia. In the Kherson region, the percentage was 87.05 while in Zaporizhzhya it was 93.11 percent. The Ministry claimed to have conducted the referendums according to the international laws while international observers have recognized the legitimacy of the vote.

Also on 27 September, Russia’s defence Minister, Sergey Shoigu personally inspected the training of the people called in due to the mobilization order. He supervised firing, tactical and medical training. He also advised the command to ensure hot meals and proper living conditions for the recruited.

On the same day, The Moscow Times reported on Russia’s government portals clarifying that passports will not be given out to citizens mobilized by the armed forces. The move comes as countless Russians try to flee the country to escape conscription amidst rising fear of travel restrictions. Currently, Russians can travel to Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan without passports.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 28 September, the European Commission proposed the eighth package of sanctions against Russia. The proposal comes as a response to the escalation of Ukraine crisis, partly caused by Russia’s annexation attempts in the occupied regions. As per the proposal, the Commission will publish the ‘legal Basis’ for an oil price cap. This move will reduce Russian revenues and bring stability to the global oil market. As part of the package, additional Russian products such as aviation items, or electronic components and specific chemical substances will be banned which could cause EUR seven billion loss in revenue for Russian economy. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the referendums an “...illegal attempt to grab land and change international borders by force,” and said that the EU was determined that Russia would feel the consequences of its actions.

On the same day, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic said that Serbia will not recognize the results of the referendums conducted by Russia. Citing the UN charter he said: "We are protecting our own territorial integrity, and it is in our best interest to protect the territorial integrity of other internationally recognised countries.”

On the explosions at the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Lithuania’s Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas said that his country is willing to provide any support required by the investigations launched by Sweden or Denmark. He also said: “…it's clear who is benefiting from this, first of all, Gazprom itself.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 28 September, Hindustan Times reported on India’s External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar’s visit to the US. He reiterated the neutral stance of India and condemned the war, but also assured to maintain good trade ties with Russia. He said: “Beyond that what happens is in the realm of diplomacy and I can’t say anything more.”

On 27 September, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that China believed in the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and all purposes of the UN Charter should be respected. According to China’s Foreign Ministry, the referendums will increase pressure on the West on how to provide necessary assistance to Ukraine.

The Indian Neighbourhood Today #195, 12 August 2026

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