NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : REUTERS/DADO RUVIC/ILLUSTRATION
IN FOCUS
By Madhura S Mahesh
Albania Cyberattacks: State and regional response
On 26 September the Washington Post reported on the interview with Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama on the cyberattack. He said: “Based on the investigation, the scale of the attack was such that the aim behind it was to completely destroy our infrastructure back to the full paper age, and at the same time, wipe out all our data.” On 24 September in the UNGA session, President Edi Rama urged the UN and the UNSC to take stricter actions against state-sponsored cyberattacks. He also proposed to come together to build a stronger security system and resilience to ward off such attacks. On 21 September, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a report on the cyber attacks by Iran against Albania’s government. On 08 September, Albania became the first country to cut diplomatic ties after Iran-sponsored groups launched a cyberattack on 15 July. The Iranian government has denied any involvement and has condemned Albania’s decision to cut diplomatic ties.
The attacks
On 15 July 2022 Albanian government services and websites became a target of cyberattacks. With over 95 per cent of its services online, the attack caused a huge disruption in government infrastructure. HomeLand Justice an anti-MEK group and a network of Iranian hackers claimed responsibility, stating the attack was done to oppose Albania for hosting the Mujahideen E-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian dissident group.
The attack comes a month after MEK and Israel allegedly carried out attacks on Tehran municipality and the MEK was set to host the Free Iran World Summit in Albania in July. The HomeLand Justice group following the attack started to spread anti-MEK messages and leaked the hacked information on websites and social media profiles created. This continued till mid-August where it was conducting polls to let the people decide on what information should be released.
On 09 September another attack occurred where the Total Information Management System (TIMS) was shut down. This system was developed alongside the US under the Bush administration in 2005 to keep a track of those entering and leaving Albania. This led to a delay in entry at Albania’s borders and forced the officials to make an entry manually on 10 and 11 of September. Prime Minister Rama has accused Iran to be behind this attack also.
State and regional response
First, state response. After the attack on 15 July, the Albanian government launched an investigation into this matter. With the help of Microsoft and the FBI, the government was able to conduct a thorough investigation into this matter which shaped their decision to cut ties with Iran. The results were formally published by Microsoft on 08 September and by the FBI on 21 September It found that the attackers through splitting into four groups have collectively worked to be inside the system for 14 months. The initial entry was said to be carried out by EUROPIUM a known associate of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) as early as May 2021. The entry was possible due to a vulnerability on the SharePoint Server.
By July 2021 the attackers had strengthened their access to the server and started exfiltrating mail from October 2021 to January 2022. Another group was said to continue to exfiltrate mail from November 2021 till May 2022. The tool used to carry this out has been identified as one that is commonly used by actors associated with MOIS. The actual attack was carried out by infecting the government websites with ransomware and then introducing malware which intended to wipe out the data. Microsoft found that this was a method that was used by actors sponsored by Iran. Both had links to Iran and its associated groups. Other information that was uncovered was that the attackers were working from Iran and that the sectors that were attacked aligned with Iran’s interests. When the response by the HomeLand Justice Group was investigated similarities were highlighted in the way Israel and the MEK responded to the attack on Iran. The targets selected were like the ones that were attacked in Iran which suggested that it was deliberate retaliation. Simultaneously Albania was strengthening its cyber defence with the help of NATO and the US. Microsoft was also collaborating with the government for further protection and strengthening of its cyber security infrastructure.
Second, Albania has received support from NATO and its members. In a statement, NATO said that “We strongly condemn such malicious cyber activities designed to destabilize and harm the security of an Ally and disrupt the daily lives of citizens.” After the second attack, NATO is discussing if Article 5 of NATO applies to cyber-attacks. The US imposed further sanctions on MOIS on 09 September with regards to the attacks in July and is working with Albania to further strengthen its cyber defence and security.
References
Tim Starks, “How Albania reckoned with alleged Iranian hackers,” Washinton Post, 26 September 2022
“NATO TO FURTHER SUPPORT ALBANIA AFTER CYBER ATTACKS,” CyberSecurity Connect, 26 September 2022
"Iranian State Actors Conduct Cyber Operations Against the Government of Albania," cisa.gov, 23 September 2022
"Tirana prosecution bans publication of personal data given from hackers," Albanian Daily News, 19 September 2022
Fjori Sinoruka and Vladimir Karaj, “New Cyber-Attacks on Albania Cause Border Chaos,” BalkanInsight, 12 September 2022
Sean Lyngaas, “Albania blames Iran for second cyberattack since July,” CNN, 12 September 2022
“Microsoft investigates Iranian attacks against the Albanian government,” Microsoft, 08 September 2022
“US imposes new sanctions on Iran over Albanian cyberattack,” AlJazeera, 09 September 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh
BULGARIA
Opinion polls for the upcoming Bulgarian election released
On 29 September, the results of the opinion polls for the upcoming elections on 02 October was released. The opinion polls reflected the political turmoil of Bulgaria with a prediction of a coalition government involving more than six parties. With a 24 per cent chance, the Citizens of European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) leads in the opinion polls, but predictions show that this is not enough to establish a majority. GERB is led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and his scandal, and corruption-filled tenure is the reason for Bulgaria’s political crisis. This is the fourth election in 18 months and was called after Prime Minister Kiril Petkov and his government were ousted in June 2022. The people of Bulgaria are now asked to choose a government that will lead the country through the harsh winter and be able to face issues such as inflation, high energy prices and the Ukraine war. (Alexander Andreev, “Bulgaria's election: What's in store ahead of a difficult winter?,” Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2022)
GREECE
Greece signs a deal with Total Energies for gas supply in winter
On 29 September, Greece’s largest gas utility company, DEPA Commercial, signed a deal with the French energy firm Total Energies, to receive LNG from France, in the upcoming winter if any need arises. The agreement states that Greece will receive two LNG cargoes monthly for five months. As per the agreement, Greece would buy the LNG at a benchmark price. The deal is Greece’s measure toward decreasing Russian gas dependency as it receives Russian gas through the Turk Stream pipeline. According to the Greek Energy Ministry, Greece would receive ten terawatt-hours of energy for five months and has the right to reject the purchase, after paying the cancellation fee. (“Greek utility DEPA clinches winter LNG deal with TotalEnergies,” ekathimerini, 29 September 2022)
THE UK
The UK celebrates World Maritime Day
On 29 September, the UK celebrated World Maritime Day. Three developments were announced by the Transport ministry regarding the celebrations. First, the winners of the second round of competition were announced where GBP 12 million was divided between 121 UK corporations. Second, the third leg of the competition was launched by the Transport Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan. GBP 60 million for the same and will start from April 2023 and go on till March 2025. GBP 60 million for the same and will start from April 2023 and go on till March 2025. The competition is held to encourage innovations in maritime technology with a focus on emission-free technology and comes under UK’s plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Third, an additional GBP 206 million was given to support the UK Shipping Office for Reducing Emissions (SHORE) project which aims to increase maritime jobs and zero emission sailing. (“UK marks World Maritime Day with £60 million boost for clean shipping,” gov.uk, 29 September 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Litigation against AI simplified
On 29 September, the European Commission announced the AI Liability Directive, a litigation process against harm caused by artificial intelligence (AI) products. As per the act, the litigation process for any injuries caused by drones on other products using AI will be more straightforward. The Directive will include a clause known as “presumption of causality” by which connection between the AI link of the product and the accident caused must be established This will not only help people get compensation but also set a liability factor for such products. The products under this include voice assistants, self-driving cars and search engines, all of which heavily depend on AI technology and are an integral part of their functioning. If the Directive is adopted, it will supplement the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, a one-of-a-kind act which sets boundaries on the use of AI systems. (Liv McMahon, “EU Commission to make it easier to sue over AI products, BBC, 29 September 2022)
REGIONAL
Cheaper electric costs in Spain deemed unfair by the French aluminium industry
On 29 September, EURACTIV reported on the French aluminium industry’s complaint about the energy price cap in Spain being unfair for the rest of the European nations. Spain and Portugal had agreed with the European Commission to be an exception by creating a temporary energy price cap till 31 May 2023, thereby reducing consumer costs. As per the agreement, energy price was capped at EUR 50 per megawatt-hour. The move has been deemed unfair by the French aluminium industry as the rest of the continent is going through a hike in energy prices. They called for anti-dumping measures that do not let the exporters import large amounts of a product and flood the domestic industry with it. On this issue, a delegate from Aluminium France Federation, Cyrille Mounier advocated a gas price cap for all the countries, to establish a level playing field and to prevent French consumers from going to Spanish sources for supply. (Paul Messad and Vlad Makszimov, “French aluminium industry wants ‘anti-dumping’ measures over Spain’s cheap electric,” EURACTIV, 29 September 2022)
Slovakia helps Hungary with border protection against illegal migration
On 28 September, Slovakia’s Interior Minister Roman Mikulec said that his country would help strengthen the Schengen borders in Hungary and Serbia to stop the entry of illegal migrants. He also said that if such backup is provided to Hungary and other European countries, Czech Republic and Austria would be able to lift the newly placed border controls on the Slovakian border. Additionally, he mentioned that if all Schengen countries act in a similar fashion, secondary migration into the EU can be curbed. However, the EU and the European Commission has ignored illegal migration issue, refusing to fund border protection with barbed wires and walls. (“Slovakia to Strengthen Border-protection Cooperation with Hungary,” Hungary today, 29 September 2022)
The EU to monitor Greece for violation of the rule of law and wiretapping scandals
On 28 September, the EU expressed concern about Greece’s government wiretapping the opposition, thus harming the country’s democracy. Greece’s main opposition SYRIZA-PS party leader, Alexis Tsipras met with the European Commissioner for Values and European Transparency, Vera Jourova, and the President of the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs of the European Parliament, Juan Lopez Aguilar, in Brussels to discuss illegal surveillance done by the Greek government. The EU noted that Greece had not followed rule of law which is one of the main pillars of the EU’s values. Earlier, in August, Greece’s Prime Minister Kriyakos Mitsotakis admitted that the country’s intelligence was wiretapping the opposition PASOK party leader Nikos Androulakis but denied having any knowledge about the same. . However due to the breach, the European Parliament and the Commission are closely monitoring the developments in the scandal and violations of the rule of law. (Ahmet Gencturk, “EU shares Greek opposition’s concerns over wiretapping, worsening rule of law in country,” Anadolu Agency, 29 September 2022)
The Commission warns against Malta’s golden passport to the ECJ
On 29 September, the European Commission announced that it would take Malta to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for its “golden passports” program. Malta, which is a EU member-state allows non-EU investors to buy their citizenship. If the ECJ rules against Malta, the island country will be signed a substantial amount. According to the EU, Malta has become a haven for criminals and has made access to the EU easily. Malta remains the only country to offer “golden passports”. The court case will let the ECJ settle the matter between the Commission and Malta. However, the Commission appreciated Malta’s decision to restrict citizenship for Russians and Belarussians following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “positive step.” (“EU takes Malta to court over 'golden passport' scheme,” Deutsche Welle, 29 September 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 218
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 29 September, Ukraine's Economy Ministry reported on the increase in its exports to the EU in the first three quarters of 2022, since 2021. On this issue the Deputy Minister of Economy, Taras Kachka highlighted the measures taken by the EU such as abolition of quotas and customs duties, the European Commission establishing the "solidarity lines" and the strengthening of customs infrastructure capacities which led to the increase. However, he also mentioned that while there has been an increase in trade with the EU, the general level of Ukrainian exports has decreased to almost half of pre-war levels.
On the same day, the Head of the President’s office, Andriy Yermak announced another prisoner exchange conducted between Russia and Ukraine. As a part of the exchange, Ukraine received six people- four marines and two civilians. Yermack remarked that negotiating such exchanges is “difficult work,” however, Ukraine committed to bring back all the people imprisoned by Russia. So far, 235 Ukrainians had returned from captivity in September.
On 27 September, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK). Signed as a part of the IAEA General Conference, the understanding will facilitate cooperation on capacity building through information exchange in nuclear and radiation safety. The agreement which will be valid for five years includes the possibility of conducting joint projects, meetings, seminars, and other services. Acting Head of the State Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority, Oleg Korikov said: "We are grateful for the international support, which is so necessary for the State Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform its functions in the current conditions.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 29 September, according to President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov the annexation of the four regions in the LPR, DPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson will be formalized in a ceremony. The signing ceremony to incorporate the new territories into Russia will be conducted at the Saint George’s Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace.
On the same issue, LPR’s ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, spoke about the annexation of LPR into Russia. According to him, LPR might become a part of Russia as a republic, such that it had autonomous rights under Russia’s control. The details of the annexation, rights and duties, the system of power and leadership of these areas will be released in legislative documents once the integration process begins. On 28 September, the Russia-backed leaders of the four regions were invited to Moscow.
On 29 September, Kommersant reported on the increased interest in Russians to buy cryptocurrency and hardware crypto wallets. Following the partial mobilization order, demand, for the cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar has increased. The co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation said that most of the exchanges were occurring through p2p exchanges like Binance. Crypto wallet manufacturer, Tangem confirmed the increased demand for physical crypto wallets and mentioned that daily sale of the same on the Ozon marketplace has tripled since 20 September.
On 29 September, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Maria Zakharova addressed the leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines in the exclusive economic zones of Sweden and Denmark. Referring to the areas where the leaks have been reported, Zakharova said: “That is the exclusive economic zone of Denmark and Sweden, the very NATO-centric countries that are stuffed with US-made weapons, which are fully controlled by American intelligence agencies.”
On the same day, the Levada Center polling agency published poll results that indicate a drop in Putin’s approval rating in Russia. While in the initial days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 83 per cent of Russians approved of Putin’s actions as president. However, in the recent survey, conducted between 22 September to 28 September, his ratings dropped to 77 per cent.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 29 September, with rising concern about the damages to Nord Stream 1 pipelines being deliberate sabotages, NATO issued a warning. It said that if critical infrastructure of any one of the 30 member states or allies are attacked, NATO would retaliate. The warning came after Sweden's coastguards confirmed a fourth leak in the pipeline. Even though NATO did blame anyone for the damage, it said that its retaliation, if required would be "united and determined."
On the same day, in Hungary, Viktor Orban's Chief of Staff, Gergely Gulyas spoke about the eighth round of EU sanctions, proposed by the European Commission on 28 September. He said that Hungary already had done enough to bolster European unity and would not support the recent sanctions if energy is one of its components.
Also on 29 September, Finland announced it would be closing its borders to Russian tourists. Other than Belarus, Finland was the only state amongst those sharing major borders with Russia still allowing Russian tourists. However, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that Putin's recent mobilization announcement which resulted in a surge of Russians at border crossings impacted the decision to ban tourists greatly. To visit Finland, Russians will now have to apply in advance and provide an invitation from personal or business contacts.
On 28 September, also because of Putin's Mobilization Order, the US urged US citizens staying in Russia to leave immediately. The US embassy in Russia issued a security alert regarding the same and asked the people to make independent travel arrangements 'as soon as possible' while limited transportation options were still available. Bulgaria’s Foreign Ministry made a similar announcement. Additionally, it advised those deciding to stay in Russia to be extremely vigilant, avoid mass gatherings and keep a keen eye on the daily developments. Poland and Estonia also issued similar advice for their respective citizens residing or vacationing in Russia.
Also on 28 September, the US Department of Defence (DoD) announced around USD 1.1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine. The new package comes under the Ukraine Security Assistant Initiative (USAI). Unlike the Presidential Drawdown Fund (PDF), which procures capabilities from the DoD, the USAI sources it from the industry. The announcement indicates US's commitment to support Ukraine in the long term. The new package will provide 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition, 150 armoured vehicles (HMMWVs), more tactical vehicles, trucks and trailers, radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems, communications systems, body armor, and other field equipment. It will also provide funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment of Ukraine's forces.
On 28 September, a meeting of the Ukrainian Defence Contact Group was hosted. The armaments directors of the 45 member states, the EU, and NATO attended the meeting. The meeting committed their long-term support for Ukraine and outlined the approach to increase the production of long-range weapons, ammunition, and other capabilities. Smaller working groups will be established to monitor and ensure progress in these fields. Additionally, the importance of standardizing equipment, increasing sustainment capacity including repair activity, and increasing accessibility was also discussed.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 29 September, Business Standard published a report on the India’s LNG supplies. It said that due to dwindling supplies from Russia’s Gazprom, India is reaching out to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE and the US to secure more LNG. In 2018, a subsidiary of Gazprom based in Singapore, Gazprom Marketing and Trading Singapore (GMTS) had signed a deal with the Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) for the supply of 2.5 million tonnes of LNG for 20 years. However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the supply through the GMTS has been declining, prompting India to look for other sources.
On 29 September, H&M the world’s second-largest fashion retailer from Sweden, launched a SEK two billion cost-saving drive. H&M’s exit from Russia contributed to about half of the profit drop for the country. In the third quarter of 2022, the company’s pretax profit dropped from SEK 6.09 billion to SEK 689 million. Less than expected profits for the company, soaring input costs, and lesser consumer spending were the other reasons for the low turnover.
References
“Another Ukraine–Russia prisoner swap held,” Ukrinform, 29 September 2022
“Ukraine’s exports to EU in Q1-3 2022 exceed pre-war figures - economy ministry,” Ukrinform, 29 September 2022
“Meeting Of National Armaments Directors of Member Countries of Ukraine Defense Contact Group Held in Brussels,” Kyiv Post, 29 September 2022
“The nuclear regulators of Ukraine and Finland signed a Memorandum on cooperation and information exchange in the field of nuclear and radiation safety,” snriu.gov.ua, 28 September 2022
“Kremlin Announces Ukraine Annexation Ceremony for Friday,” The Moscow Times, 29 September 2022
“Revealed the timing of the entry of the LPR into Russia,” LENTA.RU, 29 September 2022
“Donbass republic and Kherson region appeal to Moscow,” RT, 28 September 2022
“With wallets to go, Citizens stock up on cryptocurrencies,” Kommersant, 29 September 2022
“Russian diplomat says Nord Stream leaks occurred in zone controlled by US intelligence,” TASS, 29 September 2022
“Russia issues emergency call to UN Security Council,” RT, 28 September 2022
“Putin’s Ratings Drop on Ukraine Draft,” The Moscow Times, 29 September 2022
“Approval of Institutions, Ratings of Parties and Politicians,” levada.ru, 28 September 2022
Jam M. Olsen, “NATO believes Baltic Sea gas pipeline leaks were sabotage,” AP News, 30 September 2022
“Hungary cannot support any new EU energy sanctions against Russia – govt,” Reuters, 29 September 2022
Francesca Gillett, “Ukraine war: Finland closes border to Russian tourists,” BBC, 29 September 2022
Kelly Hooper, “U.S. embassy in Moscow urges American citizens to leave Russia 'immediately',” POLITICO, 08 September 2022
“$1.1 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine,” defense.gov, 28 September 2022
“India reaches out to US, Iraq for LNG after Gazprom reduces supply: Report,” Business Standard, 29 September 2022
Anna Ringstrom, “H&M profits hit by surging costs and wary shoppers,” Euronews, 29 September 2022