NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan
The Baltic states ban over entry of Russians: Three reasons
On 21 September, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed the decree calling for partial mobilization. The Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, stated that 300,000 men would be called to serve in the army with military experience. Upon the announcement, many young men fled to Turkey, Germany, Serbia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Finland. With Russian trying to enter the borders, Turkey and Serbia which has lesser visa restriction allowed the influx. Finland imposed ban on entry on Russias who hold finland issued or Schengen issues visas, while Germany stated that it will take in those Russian’s who oppose Putin’s invasion. The Baltic States along with Slovakia took a strong stance declaring a complete ban on Russians to enter.
Three reasons
First, Latvia’s demography and security concern. Latvia’s Foreign Minister Edgar Rinkevics said that Latvia will not grant entry even under humanitarian base for Russian. The Russian population problem is present similar to Estonia, but the numbers and the influence is more. Close to 1.8 million, 30 per cent of Latvia’s population are Russian speaking who have exploited the financial markets, infrastructure through connecting with Russian oligarchs. The intrution does not stop to finance but extend to influencing Latvia’s politics, society, with Russia expanding into Ukraine has furthered the risk of Latvia of being indirectly invaded by the Russian within its territory. The highest fear is disruption of the elections, where the centre-right New Unity Party which has storng anti-Russian stance is expected to win.
Second, Estonia’s socioeconmic division threat. The Foreign Minister of Estonia, along with Lithuania and Latvia agreed to ban Russians from entering the border after Russia declaring the mobilization recruitment. The reason behind Estonia strong stance against Russian come due to its existing internal problem. A former USSR country, contains a minority of Russian speaking immigrants of 1.3 million which has led to first, “ethinic residential segregation,” Second, damage to social integration and ethinic identities, where the minorty group residing in Estonian predominant areas tend to portray as Estonian but identify them as Russians. When such ethinic seclusion crosses with socioeconomic create major challenge for Estonians making them to leave the neighbourhood. With Ukraine war, entry of more Russians into Estonia is seen as threat to widen the socioeconomic division, due to which Estonia stands strong on the ban.
Third, united stance with the Estonia and Latvia. Lithuania compared to Estonia and Latvia, the population strength and the ancestoral link of the Russian speaking people is much lesser. In terms of gas and oils imports, Lithuania has managed to keep it at 37 per cent as of 2020, while Estonia and Latvia imports 50 per cent. Another important factor is the majority of the population (77 per cent) are catholic and only 4.1 per cent are Eastern Orthodox. In case of Estonia and Latvia it ranges from 20 to 28 per cent. But due to shared policies, history, geography, and as preventive measure to keep the Russian population in control Lithuania joins with the Baltic states in standing against Russian from entering its borders.
References
“Estonia Denies Entry to Dual Russian Citizens Who Hold Schengen Visas,” schengenvisa, 26 September 2022
“Ethnic residential segregation and integration of the Russian-speaking population in Estonia,” European Commission, 13 Novemeber 2018
Stefan Hedlund, “Latvia and the Russia factor,” gisreportsonline, 13 September 2021
“Latvia goes to polls amid growing rift between Latvian majority and Russian minority,” Reuters, 01 October 2022
Sarah Coolican, “The Russian Diaspora in the Baltic States:The Trojan Horse that never was,” lse.ac.uk, December 2021
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
BULGARIA
Support for GERB party increases before elections
|On 30 September, opinion polls conducted by Alpha Research, Trend and Gallup International in Bulgaria showed the centre-right GERB party widening the gap with its main rival the reformist “We Continue the Change (PP) party.” Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB party has seen an increase in support to 25-26 per cent from the 22.7 percent when it won the elections in November 2021. However, support for the PP party has fallen from 25.7 per cent to 16.6 per cent. Bulgaria’s fourth parliamentary election in less than two years is scheduled to be held on 02 October. So far, opinion polls have indicated a fractured parliament with up to eight political parties without clear majority. (“Bulgaria's GERB party expands lead ahead of Sunday's election,” Reuters, 30 September 2022)
FRANCE
Macron encounters crucial strike as pensioners refuse reform
On 29 September, the French government witnessed strikes against President Emmanuel Macron proposal on raising the retirement age from 62 to 65. The opposition and unions rejected the pension reforms and demanded for pay rise put forward by the French government. According to Macron, these reforms were the only way to push back on taxes without decreasing revenues amidst declining deficits and staggering public debts. Around 200 protests were organized nationwide and was staged by 400,000 people in Paris. (Luke Shrago, “Macron faces first major strike since re-election as unions oppose pension reform,” France24, 29 September 2022)
GERMANY
Germany report finds algae bloom to be the cause behind the death of fish in Oder River
On 30 September, the German Environment Authorities (UBA) issued a report on the mass kill-off of fish in the Oder River, which borders Poland and Germany. UBA said that the death of the fish had likely been caused by the algae Prymnesium parvum, which releases toxins into the water they grow in. The algal bloom was caused because the componenets of the water was favourable for its growth, like a high concentration of salt. UBA ruled out contamination from industries and herbicides as the cause behind the deaths as the amounts found in the water of Oder is not enough to cause such acute poisoning of the fish. The report also recommended conducting more research and mitigating similar catastrophes in the future and increasing cross-border warning systems. (“Germany: Oder River mass fish deaths most likely caused by algae, authorities say,” Deutsche Welle, 30 September 2022)
New deal to protect consumers and businesses
On 29 September, Germany's government announced that up to EUR 200 billion will be allocated to consumers and businesses to deal with rising energy prices. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the government will reactivate the economic stabilising fund and will “do everything it can” to bring the prices down. The fund is expected to restrict the price that Germans have to pay for gas and help in relieving inflation. A similar “defensive shield” was used support Germany’s economy during the COVID 19 pandemic and the resultant global financial crisis. So far, the government has unveiled EUR 100 billion in support measures to respond to the crisis. (“Germany to spend €200 billion to tackle high energy prices,” Euronews, 29 September 2022)
SPAIN
Tax imposed on those earning above three million per year
On 29 September, Spain’s Finance Minister, María Jesús Montero announced a tax for the wealthy. The temporary tax will affect the 0.1 percent of taxpayers, whose income exceeds EUR three million per year for 2023 and 2024. Citizens with income of EUR 3-5 million will be taxed 1.7 per cent and those whose income is in the EUR 5-10 million bracket will be taxed 2.1 per cent. People whose holdings exceed EUR 10 million will have to pay an extra 3.5 per cent in taxes. Montero said that these were solidarity measures to deal with increasing inflation and soaring energy prices. The taxes are likely to bring in EUR 3.1 billion in two years and the government aims to use it to introduce measures for people in lower income brackets. (Rodrigo Orihuela, “Spain to Increase Tax on the Rich With $2.9 Million in Assets,” Bloomberg, 29 September 2022)
REGIONAL
Sweden lifts arms export ban on Turkey
On 30 September, Sweden’s Inspectorate of Strategic Products (ISP) lifted a ban on export of military equipment to Turkey. The ban had been instituted in 2019 after Turkey’s crackdown on Syria against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. However, as a result of Sweden’s impending accession to the NATO, the countries are aiming to better bilateral relations. Turkey and Sweden reached an agreement regarding the export permits on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid in June. ISP said that the defence and security policy conditions in Tukey have changed considerably leading Sweden to take the decision. While ISP states that the export permits are being given from the third quarter of 2022, it did not specify which companies or products had been approved so far. (“Sweden resumes arms exports to Turkey after NATO membership bid,” Reuters, 30 September 2022)
EU energy ministers introduce measures to tackle rising energy price
On 30 September, the EU energy ministers approved a set of emergency measures to deal with soaring electricity prices and co-ordinate the responses by the member-states. The new package includes three major aspects. First, a pan-EU plan for power saving measures by which a five per cent target has been set for peak hours along with a voluntary 10 per cent reduction in overall electricity demands. Second, a cap on excess revenue, by which any earning beyond EUR 180 per megawatt-hour will be collected by the governments. Third, a mechanism to capture extra profit made by fossil fuel companies, whereby a 33 per cent tax will be imposed on profits made by the companies in the 2022 fiscal year. According to the package, the funds obtained from the second and third measure will be redirected as subsidies, reduced tariff and income support to households and companies under stress.On this issue, Czech Republic's Industry and Trade Minister, Jozef Sikela said: "We completed another part of the puzzle but definitely not the last one... This is an immediate patch." (Jorge Liboreiro, and Alice Tidey, “EU approves mandatory energy savings and cap on company revenues,” Euronews, 30 September, 2022)
European Commission updates its eLeniency platform
On 30 September, the European Commission upgraded its “eLeniency” platform which allowed parties to submit documents as part of leniency, settlement and non-cartel cooperation proceedings. Till now, access to some sensitive document like corporate statements was available only in the Commission premises. However, because of the new update, the commission will be able to display documents online. It also enables easier and more efficient interaction between the parties. Users will have to be pre-authorised by the Commission on a case-to-case basis, and the sensitive documents will not have copy, print or download functions. (“Antitrust: Commission upgrades eLeniency tool to grant companies online access to leniency and settlement documents,” ec,europa.eu, 30 September 2022)
Croatia and the Netherlands reach 90 per cent gas storage
On 30 September, Croatia said that its only gas storage had reached 90 per cent storage capacity. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said that the rate of storage was going “according to plan.” Dutch energy company Gasunie that told BNR Newsradio that Netherland’s gas storage is also 90 per cent. A spokesperson from the company assured that no gas shortages are expected in the upcoming winter. Both Croatia and the Netherlands have thus surpassed the EU’s compulsory minimum requirement of hitting 80 per cent of storage before November 2022. (Zoran Radosavljevic, “Croatia’s sole gas storage at 90%, PM says,” EURACTIV, 30 September 2022; Sofia Stuart Leeson, “Dutch gas storage above EU target, now at 90% capacity,” EURACTIV, 30 September 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 219
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 29 September, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) reported that the 20,000 conscripted Russian would be accommodated in Belarus to be deployed in Ukraine. The new soldiers were hosted on the premises of abandoned farms, warehouses, and hangars. The deployed soldiers were provided with Russian arms and ammunition from Belarussian warehouses. Logistics of soldiers and military equipment are done through Belarus’ railway and mobilized civilian trucks and cars.
On 30 September, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the Swiss people to increase their support for Ukraine and to stop being a neutral country. He invited Switzerland to participate in supporting Ukraine’s Fast Recovery Plan with technical and financial aid.
Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported through a Facebook post that the Ukraine had received 16 new drones as a part of the Army of Drones initiative. The military showed gratitude to the project and the Ministry of Digital Transformation for its support and those who donated the drones. The drones will be used to conduct reconnaissance missions and destroy enemy forces.
Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Starukh, posted on his telegram that Russians launched a rocket attack on a humanitarian convoy while it was out of a regional centre. Rescuers, medics and other services are helping at the site of the attack, where one woman was reported to be injured.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 30 September, LENTA RU reported that Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, held a meeting with the Members of the Russian Security Council on the topic of mistakes made during mobilization. He demanded the council rectify the errors immediately and calmly. Putin said that those that were mistakenly called for military conscription would be returned. He also added that he would not tolerate any more mistakes, and that those made must be corrected.
On 29 September, Putin signed a decree that recognized the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as independent, which would be accepted as a step toward acceding to Russia. The document stated that the two regions had referendums according to the principles and norms of international law. The decree also contained that the regions had overwhelming support from the local residents and should be recognized as independent territories. On 30 September, He signed four agreements of admission of Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as new territories to the Russian Federation at a special ceremony at the Grand Kremlin Palace.
On the same day, Russia’s Permanent Mission to the UN accused the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, of being a double standard. The Russian Permanent Mission said that Guterres had voiced concerns only over Ukraine issues but remained silent about Ukraine’s actions in Donbas since 2014, the crisis in Kosovo and the US and NATO occupying part of Syria. They accused Guterres of being influenced by the western agenda and not discussing other issues.
On 30 September, the Head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, blamed the US for the incident as it would be the most beneficial due to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline explosion. He said that the US immediately started assigning blame for the explosion. He also compared the incident with the CIA’s attack on Nicaragua’s oil infrastructure in Puerto Sandino in 1983 for its benefits. Russia blames the US for being the mastermind of the explosion as it would sell its more expensive oil to Europe if Russian oil were out of the picture. However, the US blamed Russia for sabotaging its pipeline.
On the same day, Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed his country’s alliance with Russia at the credentials presentations ceremony involving ambassadors of foreign countries. He said Belarus would stand firm with Russia. Their relations will be much tighter than that of NATO states. He also announced that Belarus would not be involved in direct conflict with Ukraine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 28 September, European Commission, President Ursula von der Leyen announced eighth set of sanctions on Russia in response to Russia’s continuing referendum calls, posing nuclear threat and mobilization efforts. The Commission termed the referendum as a sham and that it would not be acknowledging the outcome of it. The focus of the sanctions imposed are, first, an updated list of individuals and organizations. Second, is banning more Russian imports, decreasing exports to Russia, and prohibiting services availed to Russia, and stop EU citizens from holding positions in the governing bodies of Russian public enterprises. Third, a price cap on Russian oil to keep the market stable and to target Russia’s oil revenue. Last, creation of a list of individuals who are helping Russia navigate around the sanctions.
On 30 September, the European Commission issued new guidelines on issuing visas for Russian citizens and regulations to be followed at external borders. The guidelines were presented upon gathering of Russians at the European border after mobilization decree. It includes stricter scrutiny of visa applications for Russians such as short-term visas, inspect issued visas at borders and cancel if required, adopt a synchronised approach in handling Russian citizens at the borders to avoid entry of the barred individuals. Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson announced the new guidelines, highlighting Europe’s commitment in providing asylum to those in need of protection.
On 30 September, Finland closed its border for Russians holding tourist visas. Finland’s border with Russia is the longest one among all EU members and is the easiest route for Russians who were fleeing the mandatory conscription. Due to this measure, checkpoints along the border witnessed long lines which remained till midnight.
On the same day, US President Joe Biden refused to acknowledge Russia’s referendum and its result. Russia’s annexation of four territories of Ukraine after the referendum has been met with further economic sanctions from the US. The sanctions target shell companies which are helping Russia evade sanctions and families of top Kremlin officials have been included in the list of sanctioned individuals.
On 30 September, Jamie Lee Henry and her wife Anna Gabrielian were accused of conspiracy and release of health information of patients at a military hospital. Henry is a US army major doctor and Gabrielian is a civilian doctor. Gabrielian is said to have approached the Russian embassy in the US after Russia invaded Ukraine and had proposed to share information with regards to US military training to help Ukraine and how army hospitals are set up in conflict zones. She was able to access this information through her wife. Henry later met their contact and extended support and even thought of joining the Russian army. Both are charged with violation of HIPPA and if found guilty they would each serve a total of 15 years for all the charges. The lawyers of the couple and Russian authorities have not responded to this yet.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 29 September, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed his views on Russia’s annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Guterres condemned this move citing the UN Charter which states that “Any annexation of a State’s territory by another State resulting from the threat or use of force is a violation of the Principles of the UN Charter and international law.”. He also referred to the “Friendly Relations Declaration” of 24 October 1970 which outlines that a region cannot be annexed by another State using force and such a move will not be recognised and will be considered illegal. Guterres also reminded Russia of its position as a permanent member of the UNSC and its duty to uphold the charter. He said that the annexation will be considered illegal and that it goes against what the international community stands for.
On 30 September, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida criticized Russia’s annexation of four regions of Ukrainian a telephone call with Ukraine President Zelensky and assured Japan’s support in the war along with the G7 nations to further sanctions on Russia. and He proposed to initiate a discussion on rebuilding Ukraine and reopen its embassy in Kyiv to promote cooperation.
On 30 September, the Uzbekistan government assured to not deport Russians fleeing the mandatory conscription. The Foreign Ministry expressed its support towards the principle of territorial integrity and respecting one’s sovereignty and peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict. In a statement, it said, "...Foreign citizens who have not broken the law are not subject to forced deportation." While official numbers have not been released, it is expected to be over a thousand if we look at the numbers from Uzbekistan’s neighbours.
A report published by BBC on 30 September talks about how lower prices of Russian oil are acting as an incentive for Asian countries to buy in a time of high oil prices. India and China now collectively import more than half of Russia’s seaborne oil exports. Myanmar has said that it would be buying Russian oil and Sri Lanka has had three deliveries during the time of its financial crisis. Whereas Japan and South Korea have significantly decreased oil and crude imports from Russia. At such a juncture the G7 proposal of a price cap is putting a shadow on oil prices and Russia has taken a stance to not export oil to those who support the price caps. While the amount exported is significant to Russia, it is a very small part of the overall energy imports of both China and India. China has signed various deals to increase imports of LNG from Russia and the completion of the Power of Siberia pipeline will make Russia China’s largest gas supplier. As of now one of the main challenges to buying Russian oil is the mode of payment.
References
“Belarus to Accommodate 20,000 Russian Conscripts,” Kyiv Post, 30 September 2022
“It is important that Switzerland supports Ukraine - Volodymyr Zelenskyi during a conversation with the university community,” president.gov.uk, 30 September 2022
“Sixteen new drones sent to Ukrainian soldiers as part of Army of Drones project,” Ukrinform, 30 September 2022
“Enemy hits humanitarian convoy in Zaporizhzhia region. Casualties reported,” Ukrinform, 30 September 2022
“Putin demanded to correct all mistakes made during partial mobilization,” LENTA RU, 30 September 2022
“Russia recognized the independence of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions,” LENTA RU, 30 September 2022
“Russian diplomats describe UN chief’s statement on referendums as ‘double standards’,” TASS, 30 September 2022
“Russian security chief names ‘obvious’ beneficiary of pipeline rupture,” RT, 30 September 2022
“Four treaties on admission of Russia’s new territories to be signed Friday — Kremlin,” TASS, 30 September 2022
“Belarus to be together with Russia, their union tighter than NATO — Lukashenko,” TASS, 30 September 2022
“Press statement by President von der Leyen on a new package of restrictive measures against Russia”, ec.europa.eu, 28 September 2022
“Guidelines on general visa issuance in relation to Russian applicants and controls of Russian citizens at the external borders”, ec.europa.eu, 30 September 2022
“EU says 'stricter assessment' needed for Russians seeking travel visas”, Reuters, 30 September 2022
“Ukraine war: US will never recognise Russia's annexation attempts, Biden vows”, BBC, 30 September 2022
“U.S. announces new sanctions on Russia in response to Ukraine annexation”, cnbc, 30 September 2022
“Ukraine-Russia war: US army doctor and wife charged with Russia spying”, BBC, 30 September 2022
“Finnish border closed to Russians with tourist visas”, apnews, 30 September 2022
“THE SECRETARY-GENERAL -- REMARKS TO PRESS ON RUSSIAN DECISION ON ANNEXATION OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY”, ukraine.un.org, 29 September 2022
“Japan PM condemns Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine”, apnews, 30 September 2022
“Uzbekistan says it won't deport Russians fleeing conscription”, Reuters, 30 September 2022
“Ukraine crisis: Russian oil and gas turn to Asia”, BBC, 30 September 2022