NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Stephanie Lecocq/EPA-EFE/POLITICO
EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan
EU’s eight package of sanctions on Russia: Three takeaways
On 06 October, the European Commission released a statement on the eight package of sanctions imposed on Russia. The move was triggered after the signing of the referendums to annex parts of Ukraine. The key target of the package are the individual entities helping Russia and to isolate Russia’s economy, deteriorate its military capacity, and technologies.
Three takeaways
First, narrowed energy price cap. The European Commission ruled the ban to import Russian oil through tankers from 05 December 2022 to 05 February 2023. It will be applicable to only the EU member states along with the G7 countries, leaving out Russia. In case of Greece, Cyprus and Malta which are known for having huge tanker shipping, will be allowed to transport, but under the given price cap. The rule will also apply to the EU ships operating overseas in Panama or Liberia to abide by the price limit. Although the price is yet to be finalised, it is expected that it would not be lesser than the amount before the invasion began. Another issue is Balkan states and Serbia which does not have a seaport, imports Russian oil through Croatia, the EU is yet be decide if it can allow the exports. However, oil exported through pipeline will not be come under the price cap, this is beneficial especially for Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Second, specific target on individual entities that help Russia in oil exports. The entities subject to the sanctions include state-owned enterprises, IT Consultancies, financial firms and other Businesses. Any enterprise transacting with “Russian Maritime Register,” in form of crypto-assets, consultancy, legal advisory, engineering any services that add capacity to Russia’s industrial ability. In the earlier sanctions, up to 10,000 EUR was allowed for the companies, but with the latest package, a complete ban has been imposed on such services, which are most relied by Russia.
Third, extended import and export restrictions product list. The previous sanction packages of the EU have also targeted Russia’s military, industry components, but the eight package furthers the list of products included in the ban list. It has included, specific electronic components used by Russia in its industrial units, aviation and small arms under the export restrictions. Under the import ban, it has now included semi-finished steel products, “…appliances, plastics, vehicles, textiles, footwear, leather, ceramics, certain chemical products, and non-gold jewellery.”
References
“Ukraine: EU agrees on eighth package of sanctions against Russia,” ec.europa.eu, 06 October 2022
“EU aims at Kremlin's revenues with cap on Russian oil price,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022
“Russia's war on Ukraine: EU adopts sixth package of sanctions against Russia,” ec.europa.eu, 03 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
FRANCE
Annie Ernaux becomes France’s first female Nobel laureate for literature
On 06 October, the Swedish Academy awarded the Nobel Prize in literature to French author Annie Ernaux, who won the accolade for her “courage and clinical acuity" in her books. Ernaux’s books are mostly autobiographical and address the various disparities and discrimination arising out of gender, language and class. The 82-year-old author calls writing a political act which elucidates social inequality. Ernaux’s first novel came out in 1974 called “Les Amores Vides,” but she gained wider recognition after “Les Annes” was published in 2008 and translated to “The Years” in English in 2017. applauded the author and said: “she uses language as 'a knife', as she calls it, to tear apart the veils of imagination.” (By Justyna Pawlak, Simon Johnson and Elizabeth Pineau, “France's Ernaux, who long scrutinised self, wins Nobel literature prize,” Reuters, 07 October 2022)
GERMANY
Germany to interrogate the people linked to IS from Syria
On 05 October, Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock announced the deportation of 12 people with connections to the Islamic State from Syria. The group includes one man, four women, and seven children, who had been staying in the Roj camp in Northeast Syria, under Kurdish control. The five adults will be subject to detainment and questions upon reaching Germany. However, Baerbock mentioned that she was especially relieved about the repatriation of the children, as they were innocent and “victims of IS.” Till now 26 women and 76 children suspected to have links with the IS, have been repatriated from Syria, and some amongst them have been tried and jailed for the war. (“Germany repatriates 12 IS-linked citizens from Syria,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022)
Six German Parliamentarians visit Taiwan to further bilateral ties
On 06 October, six parliamentarians from Bundestag concluded a five-day visit which focused on to further bilateral ties with Taiwan. The Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) emphasized that the visit, was an effort to better relations between the two parliaments than reflecting the official position of the German government or the Foreign Ministry. Representatives from Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party and Free Democratic Party (FDP) were also part of the delegation. The parliamentarians of Germany and China both the countries talked about ways to address common problems like housing shortages, scientific challenges, trade, and energy dependency. Marking the first German visit since 2019, this delegation marks the first of the upcoming bilateral meetings between the two countries. In the next few weeks, the Bundestag's Human Rights Committee is expected to visit Taipei, followed by a delegation of young parliamentarians in 2023. (Jon Shelton, “German lawmakers call for deeper ties with Taiwan,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022)
HUNGARY
Viktor Orban faces largest anti-government protests since re-election in April
On 05 April, people gathered in Budapest to protest against the working conditions for teachers in Hungary. The demonstrations, grew to be the biggest anti-government protests since Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s re-election in April. It started with students forming a chain across Budapest, stretching for kilometres due to the mass firing of teachers from their posts. One of the campaign signs read as “I want to teach” to demand better working conditions and higher wages for teachers. However, the government stated that the teacher’s demands can be only met once the EU COVID-19 recovery funds are released. (“Large Demonstration In Budapest Demands Better Conditions For Teachers,” rferl.org, 06 October 2022)
NORTHERN IRELAND
Negotiation over implementation of Northern Ireland Protocol prolongs till 28 October
On 06 October, the EU and the UK held talks about the Northern Ireland Protocol via a video link. In the meeting, a timetable for further negotiations was decided on, and UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly pledged his commitment to work with Ireland on the Protocol. On the same issue, Ireland’s Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said that the meeting would concentrate on the identifying the issues where negotiations can be conducted “sooner rather than later.” However, he mentioned that progress on implementation of the protocol was unlikely before 28 October, after which the Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is obligated to set a date for a fresh Stormont election. (Jayne McCormack, “NI Protocol dispute will not be resolved by 28 October, says Coveney,” BBC, 07 October 2022)
THE NETHERLANDS
Migration facilities court-ordered to provide better living conditions
On 06 October, Netherlands civil court announced the order on a case brought in by the Dutch Council for Refugees regarding the inhuman conditions of the immigration and asylum facilities. The case was lodged after over 700 immigrants had to sleep outside while their paperwork were being processed. The situation at the Ter Apel migration facility also led to the first deployment of a Doctors Without Borders delegation to the country. Now, the court has found that the condition at the facility did not meet basic European standards in terms of hygiene and sanitation and has ordered the government to ensure that all migration facilities across the country provide “..a safe, covered place to sleep, food, water and access to hygienic sanitary facility… immediately.” The chairman of the Dutch Council for Refugees, Frank Candel said that while the court’s decision was a step forward, it was disappointing that provision of basic humane conditions had to be court ordered. He said: “We will not rest as long as asylum-seekers have to sleep in a tent, gym, or event hall.” (“Dutch court orders government to clean up inhumane immigration centers,” Deutsche Welle, 06 October 2022)
REGIONAL
European Parliament Members vote for resolution supporting protests in Iran following Amini’s death
On 06 October, the Members of the European Parliament voted in favour of a resolution condemning the death Mahsa Amini, after her arrest, abuse, and torture by Iran’s ‘morality’ police. The text supports the peaceful protests organized across Iran and also suggests sanctions on officials involved in the crackdown against these protestors. So far, over 100 people protesting against the treatment of Amini have been killed. The text was adopted by a show of hands thus leaving no official record for how many MEPs voted in favour but the chair of the Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Iran, Cornelia Ernst said that the ‘vast majority’ agreed to the text. After the votes, in a statement, she said: “Human rights are not negotiable. The longing for a free and democratic Iran is gripping more and more people in Iran. The European Parliament stands by their side.” On 05 October, in protest of the same, Iraq-born Swedish MEP Abir Al-Sahlani cut her hair in the Parliament in a show of solidarity with Iran, where, many women have been staging similar protests. (Wilhelmine Preussen, “EU Parliament slams Iran over repression of women’s rights protesters,” POLITICO, 06 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 225
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 06 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his video address in the European Political Community meeting in Prague, stressed on the need for more weapons for Ukraine to win the war against Russia. He also urged to intensify the sanctions by the international community. In the meeting, close to 44 countries expressed their support to Ukraine in the war.
On the same day, the chief of the joint coordination press centre of Ukraine’s Operational Command South Natalia Humeniuk gave an update on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region. At a press briefing, she updated that to date the Armed Forces have freed more than 400 square kilometres from Russian hold. Without giving any specific direction, Humeniuk said that the Forces are moving further to liberate more parts of the region.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 06 October, Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported on the gains of the Russian armed forces over the Ukrainian armed forces. As per the report, eight Ukrainian command forces were targeted and destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces in a joint effort by the combat aircraft, missile and artillery troops. The attack also destroyed military equipment, 63 artillery units at firing positions and Ukrainian manpower in 173 areas.
On 06 October, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Kiev of attacking the people in the annexed regions. Zakharova is of the view that Kiev’s attacking the civilians due to their decision to become a part of Russia. She also doubled down on Russia’s commitment to protect these regions and restore normality in these regions and continue its rebuilding efforts. She also mentioned about a proposal sent to the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This was a broad proposal for a peace treaty between the two countries. The details of the proposals were not revealed as Russia believes it to be a sensitive topic.
On 06 October, the Joint Ceasefire Coordination and Control Center’s (JCCC) mission to LPR released its report on the damage caused by Ukrainian aggression in this region. The report stated that 101 people had died and 314 wounded since 17 February in LPR when the Ukrainian aggression began. Additionally, seven children died and 27 more were wounded due to shelling. They also report that 2,950 houses and 273 civilian infrastructures have been damaged. The mission said that "In total, the enemy used over 10,000 munitions of various calibers, including Tochka-U tactical missiles (37 rockets) and US-made HIMARS (348 rockets), multiple launch rocket systems (BM-21 Grad, BM-27 Uragan, BM-30 Smerch): 2,497 shells, artillery guns of 155 mm (69 shells)."
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 06 October, the Head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) Samantha Power announced additional funding of USD 55 million to aid in repairing necessary infrastructure to provide heating to hospitals, schools, homes and businesses in Ukraine. Apart from this USIAD will also provide power generators and fuel sources to give the Ukrainians access to warm shelter. The aid is also expected to help centres for internally-displaced persons, and shelters for socially vulnerable citizens to bear the winter.
On 06 October, BBC reported on the increasing reliance and importance of space in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. The head of the US Space Force, General Jay Raymond told BBC in an interview about how this is the first major conflict in which commercial space infrastructure has been used by both sides. Ukraine despite not having any commercial satellites, has been helped by its allies with information regarding Russian military movement and warnings of any attack by them. Space has helped both sides in providing information, restoring communication and in precision attacks by weapons. UK’s Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radkin has expressed concerns about a possible space front war. This was also echoed by General Raymond who outlined the possibilities of a ground strike on space infrastructure and that such a possibility opens doors for space militarization.
On 06 October, the first-ever meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) in Prague. An initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron was introduced right after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. Composed of 44 members, Macron hopes that the EPC will be instrumental in bringing the European continent together and protecting the security of Europe. In a press conference after the summit Macron told the reporters, "We have very clearly displayed the unity of 44 European leaders in condemning Russian aggression and expressing support for Ukraine." The same sentiment was echoed by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki who said that "This summit confirms that Russia is in complete isolation."
On the same day, Sweden cleared three ports in the north of the country for Russian fishing vessels. The Foreign Ministry announced that Kirkenes, Troms and Botsfjord ports will be the only ports where Russian fishing vessels can dock. They also added that on arrival the ships will be checked before being allowed to dock.
On 05 October, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz discussed closer cooperation specifically on energy and security issues during their first meet in nine years. Later the two countries emphasised the importance of expanding the interconnection capacity of the Iberian Peninsula to deliver energy to the continent. This includes the connectivity of electricity and gas between countries. On the same day, Sánchez called on French President Emmanuel Macron to adhere to his promise to the EU of increasing the expansion of the electricity and electricity grid.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 06 October, the Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva said that the IMF will be decreasing its projections for the global growth rate. In a talk at Georgetown University, she said that the projection for global economic growth was decreased by USD four trillion through 2026. The reason for this decrease was the Russia-Ukraine crisis which led the IMF to reconsider its projections back in February 2022. The official figures for global growth for 2022 stand at 3.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent for 2023. This comes before the yearly meeting of the IMF and the World Bank next week.
On 06 October, Reuters reported on the ground situation of Russians in Kazakhstan. With a sudden influx of people, money and job troubles are being experienced by the Russians. The locals have seen an increase in housing costs, causing many to leave their homes and seek alternative options. There also has been an increasing concern about a security risk expressed by the Kazakhs with respect to the Russians. They are being called “draft dodgers” as they have only entered the country to flee the military conscriptions. Kazakh politician Mukhtar Taizhan expressed his fear that "Tomorrow, they might unite into a group, start demanding something here," and "This might turn into a concern for our security and, God forbid, territorial integrity."
On 05 October, Reuters reported that Russia is urging a secret ballot when the UNGA will meet next week. After the West failed to pass a resolution condemning the annexation of four Ukrainian territories in the UNSC, the matter is now being put forth in the UNGA. Russia is looking for a secret ballot to prevent lines from being drawn due to Western lobbying. The 193-member body will be voting on the same before the resolution is presented.
References
“Zelensky: If world's reaction is weak now, Russia will come up with some new escalation”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022
“Russia already used 86 kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine, 60% of them downed - General Staff ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022
“Mohajer-606, two Shahed-136 drones downed in Mykolaiv region ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022
“Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy nine kamikaze drones overnight ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022
“Ukraine Army liberates over 400 sq km of Kherson region from invaders ”, Ukrinform, 06 October 2022
“Russian forces cripple eight command posts in Ukraine operation, top brass reports”, TASS, 06 October 2022
“Diplomat blames Kiev for its malevolence against civilians in new Russian regions”, TASS, 06 October 2022
“Moscow sent comprehensive peace treaty proposals to Baku, Yerevan — diplomat”, TASS, 06 October 2022
“Top lawmaker says Ukrainian parliament members ignored invitation to start talks”, TASS, 06 October 2022
“LPR mission reveals total number of casualties due to Ukrainian shelling since escalation”, TASS, 06 October 2022
“U.S. Announces $55 Million in Assistance to Help Ukraine Prepare for Winter”, Kyiv Post, 06 October 2022
“Support continues in Plymouth for those fleeing Ukraine”, BBC, 06 October 2022
“Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine”, BBC, 06 October 2022
“Europe's new 44-nation club underlines Russia's isolation”, Reuters, 06 October 2022
“European Political Community: What we know and don't know about the new club of nations”, euronews, 06 October 2022
“Spain and Germany strengthen alliance, pressure France on gas interconnector”, Euractiv, 06 October 2022
“Spanish PM urges Macron to honour his commitment to gas interconnections”, Euractiv, 06 October 2022
“The Swedish Foreign Ministry named the ports available for Russian ships”, LENTA.RU, 06 October 2022
“IMF warns of higher recession risk and darker global outlook”, AP News, 06 October 2022
“Russians fleeing war call-up face new stresses on arrival in Kazakhstan”, Reuters, 06 October 2022
“Russia wants secret U.N. vote on move to condemn 'annexation' of Ukraine regions”, Reuters, 06 October 2022