NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : UK Military of Defence/Twitter
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh
ESTONIA
Estonia joins NATO-level European air defence system
On 17 October, Estonia’s Defence Minister, Hanno Pevkur, in an interview with ERR said that Estonia had joined the European air defence system created by Germany, which would protect Estonia from ballistic missiles in future. The European states are working together to integrate air defence systems, which consists of only 15 members. Germany, which is promoting the NATO-level defence agreement aims for joint tender or integration to convince the 15 member states agree to a common interest. The initiative will integrate Estonia’s upcoming medium-range capability and Estonia’s short-range capability that it shares with Poland. (“Defense minister: European air defense initiative could benefit Estonia,” news.err.ee, 17 October 2022)
SWEDEN
Kristersson becomes Sweden’s new Prime Minister
On 17 October, the conservative Swedish Moderate Party’s leader, Ulf Kristersson, was elected as Sweden’s Prime Minister with the support of the far-right Sweden Democrats. He will form a minor coalition government with the Christian Democrats and Liberals. Out of 349 parliamentarians, 176 voted in favour of Kristersson becoming the new Prime Minister, meanwhile 173 voted against him. With the help of Sweden Democrats, the right-wing coalition has presented their plan for their governance ahead. The plan includes raising police funding, building new nuclear reactors and stricter immigration policies. Restricting immigration laws and benefits and deportation of non-integrated immigrants are also included. The far-right Sweden Democrats will not be a part of the government but will remain to back the coalition. (“Sweden: Lawmakers elect Ulf Kristersson as prime minister,” Deutsche Welle, 17 October 2022)
THE UK
Liz Truss faces criticism over Jeremy Hunt reversing the mini-budget
On 17 October, the UK’s Chancellor of Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, discarded Prime Minister Liz Truss’ “mini” budget. Truss recently removed former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for failing to keep the UK’s economy from sinking. After replacing Kwarteng, Hunt said he would discard the Truss’ tax cut package. He gave the reason that it would cause more debts to the government and would not elevate the country's overall economy. He promised to make a plan to cut the UK’s national debt in his fiscal statement on 31 October. Truss was not seen at the House of Commons, however, she sent Penny Mordaunt in her place to address the economic fallout of her abandoned mini-budget. Several Conservative MPs request Truss to step down from Office due to her worsening already bad economy. (“Liz Truss news – live: PM cannot survive any more mistakes, minister warns,” Independent, 17 and 18 October 2022
Louise Casey reports on getting away of police officers with no charge
On 17 October, a report by a former government official, Louise Casey, on London’s Metropolitan Police Force suggested that many officers do not face any charges after committing crimes. The police force was noted to have been filled with law-breaking, racist and misogynistic officers. The officers had been escaping punishments and getting away with their criminal behaviour. Law enforcement is especially tough on Black or Asian officers than caucasian ones, which makes the racial disparity seen within the force. The police were criticized for their handling of police-involved crimes. London Police Chief, Cressida Dick, resigned after being found incompetent in leading law enforcement the right way and garnering public support from London Mayor Sadiq Khan. Sir Mark Rowley replaced Dick and brought new rules to set things straight in the police force. He said, “The public deserves a better Met, and so do our good people who strive every day to make a positive difference to Londoners.” He has plans to remove corrupt and crime-committing police officers from the force. (Jill Lawless, “Scathing report says UK police getting away with lawbreaking,” apnews, 17 October 2022)
GENDER
New rule on balanced gender representation on company boards to be adopted by the EU
On 17 October, the European Council approved the rules to promote gender representation balance on company boards. It gave the EU the green light to proceed with the rules. The rule states that 40 per cent of the non-executive director positions in a listed company should be given to members of the underrepresented gender by 2026. If the member state applies the new rule to executive and non-executive directors, 33 per cent of all positions should be held by the underrepresented sex by 2026. According to the rule, those firms that do not follow gender equality should change their selection process. The selection process should be fair, unbiased and transparent. When there are equally qualified candidates for the same position, the underrepresented gender should be given preference. A member state close to accomplishing the gender balance goals or having similar rules does not have to make the companies change their appointment or selection process. Every year member states should publish the list of firms that achieved balanced gender representation on their company board. (“Council approves EU law to improve gender balance on company boards,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022)
REGIONAL
EU sets 2023 catch limits in the Baltic Sea
On 17 October, the EU’s Agriculture and Fisheries Council came to a political conclusion on the total allowable catches (TACs) and quotas for fish stocks in the Baltic Sea in 2023. Based on the advice of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) the council set limits for fishing vessels working in the region. The agreements outlined largely include a decrease in the quantity of fish that can be caught except for Central Baltic herring and plaice whose population has increased. This is also in line with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy. (“Baltic Sea: Council agrees catch limits for 2023,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Germany imposes EUR five million on Telegram over illegal content reporting practise
On 17 October, the Telegram app was fined by Germany due to not establishing a legal way to report illegal content or naming an institution in Germany to regulate the messages. Failing to comply with German digital law, Telegram was fined EUR 5.125 million. Germany has attempted to sue the Dubai-based company multiple times but failed. However, this time, the Federal Office of Justice has staunchly stood by its decision to fine the messaging app. According to German federal police, Telegram lacks screening of messaging contents and is becoming a tool for radicalization. (“Germany slaps messaging app Telegram with $5 million fine,” apnews, 17 October 2022)
ASEAN and the EU sign the Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement
On 17 October, the EU and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed the Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement between member states of both organization at the 28th ASEAN Transport Ministers’ Meeting in Bali, Indonesia. The ASEAN_EU CATA marks the first bloc-to-bloc air transport agreement. The agreement will help fasten the recovery of air connectivity between two parts of the earth after the COVID-19 pandemic. Each country of a bloc can travel up to 14 weekly passenger services within a week to countries in the other bloc. The ASEAN-EU CATA also strengthens cooperation and relations between the two blocs, especially in aviation safety, air traffic management, consumer protection, and environmental and social matters. It also brings a single set of rules instead of multiple ones and helps to rejuvenate the global economy. (“ASEAN and the EU sign the world’s first bloc-to-bloc Air Transport Agreement - joint press release,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022)
SPACE
UK Space Agency allocates fund for satellite communications
On 17 October, UK’s Science Minister Nusrat Ghani announced a new fund for businesses to transform satellite communications technology. The total amount of the fund is GBP 15 million which will help ideas and innovations presented by various businesses to transform satellite communications. This is a part of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Advance Research in Telecommunications Services (ARTES) programme. This programme is important for the growth of the UK Space Agency and a recent report published by the ESA highlights how for every GBP 01 invested the UK economy sees a return of GBP 11.80. (“£15 million investment in satellite communications from UK Space Agency,” gov.uk, 17 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 236
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 17 October, Kyiv Post reported on Russian attacks on Ukraine with Iran-manufactured kamikaze drones, hitting homes, businesses, and national power grid infrastructure in Kyiv. The strikes caused a series of fires and firefighters were deployed to rescue victims. On the same, Ukrinform reported on death of a woman as a result of a building collapse.
On 17 October, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal briefed the public on Russian strikes on important energy infrastructure. Shmyhal posted in Telegram that the strikes happened in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy. Majority of houses in these regions were observed to be out of power. The Prime Minister urged the people in these regions to moderately consume electricity especially in the peak hours and follow the anti-response plan introduced in each region. Ukrainian air force released a report which outlines the number of Russian drones destroyed since 16 October. As per the report 37 out of 43 drones sent by Russia were destroyed.
On 16 October, President Zelenskyy commemorated the World Food Day by appreciating the Black Sea Grain Initiative and thanked it’s the collaborators, the UN and President Erdogan of turkey for facilitating the supply of Ukraine’s grains to the global market. He said that in the coming days, Ukraine will aim to expand the export further.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 17 October, a draft bill titled “A Just Russia - Patriots - For Truth,” was submitted to the lower house of the parliament. The bill deals with the abolition of the deferment from conscription for senators of the Federation Council and deputies of the State Duma. The document also outlines the categories of citizens, who would be called up first for conscription. The list includes the members of the Russian Guard, the SVR, the FSB, the military prosecutor's office, the Investigative Committee, military units of the federal fire service, rescue military formations and those people retired military servicemen who are part of the Armed Forces reserve.
On the issue of conscription, the Mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin said that the mobilization of soldiers, had been completed in Moscow. Sobyanin expressed his gratitude and appreciation to the volunteers and those mobilized. Though he did not clarify on the nature of welfare measures, he assured the safety of the family members of the volunteers involved in helping the Ministry of Defence.
On 16 October, Russia’s presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov alleged NATO had “de facto become involved in the Ukraine conflict.” He stated that even though NATO’s involvement makes Russia’s task in Ukraine harder, it would not affect Russia’s military goals in Ukraine. Peskov mentioned that Russia’s military potential was sufficient to continue its “special military operation” and that “internal mobilization in the field of economy and other spheres,” would ensure Russia’s success in the long term.
On the same day, Gazprom CEO, Alexey Miller referred to the possibility of setting up a gas hub in Turkey as indicated earlier by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. He said that redirecting gas supplies stopped due to the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines through a Turkish hub would be possible. Miller said that the groundwork for the route was already completed for the South Stream pipeline project, which was replaced by the TurkStream. On 15 October, the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Mikhail Delyagin said that Turkey would have to cease the supply of Bayraktars and weapons to Ukraine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 17 October, the UK intelligence released a video on how the Ukrainians from different background such as taxi drivers, students, and chefs are being trained from “weapon handling, urban warfare, trench warfare, importance of armed conflict, battlefield first aid, and drills needed to face the frontline.” The intelligence also reported on how Russian forces have been challenged with logistical issues in Kherson from the Kerch Bridge attack. It observed that with difficulty in Kherson, supply narrowed in Crimea, the Zaporizhzhia was becoming a important area to sustain Russian occupation.
On 17 October, the Foreign Ministers of the EU member states met in Luxembourg announced the launch of the Ukraine soldier training mission and financial aid to Ukraine. The budget to the training mission was EUR 105 million by the EU, which will include training of 15000 Ukraine soldiers for a two-year term. The Ministers also discussed on the claims against Iran supplying drones to Russia and are expected to impose measure if the claim is proved.
On the same issue, the European Council adopted measures to assist Ukraine under the European Peace Facility to support Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The sixth set of aid to be given to Ukraine under the European Peace Facility (EPF) is worth EUR 500 million and will bring the total EU contribution to EUR 3.1 billion. Of the EUR 500 million, 10 million will be to cover equipment like first aid kits, personal protective equipment, and fuel while the remaining will be for weapons and ammunition.
On 16 October, Foreign Ministries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania issued a joint statement to the EU to assist Ukraine in setting up a special Tribunal. The tribunal will be tasked with trying the “crimes of aggression” and “ensure Russia’s accountability for its aggression against Ukraine.” They said that Russia’s actions like targeting civilian infrastructure are threatening the rule-based international order and the special tribunal would complement the International Court of Justice’s efforts to bring Russia’s military and political leadership to trial for their actions.
On the same day, the Wall Street Journal released a report on economists from University of Michigan, Jefferies LLC, KPMG and other firms predict a recession for the US, since it is facing high inflation, job losses, and the contraction of the economy, which might slip into recession in the upcoming months. In July, a similar survey estimated the probability of recession at 49 per cent, but the recent survey estimated that there was an increased chance of 63 per cent. In the first quarter of 2023, economists are expecting the GDP of the US to shrink at 0.2 per cent annual rate and at 0.1 per cent in the second quarter. This is in contrast to the July forecast of 0.8 percent and one per cent growth in the first and second quarters respectively. 58.9 per cent of the economists taking part in the survey said that Federal Reserves will raise interest too to help ease the inflation, causing further weakening of the economy. Unemployment rates are expected to rise from 3.5 per cent in September to 4.3 per cent in June 2023. However, economists are of the opinion that a recession if it occurs will be a shorter one of about eight months, than the post-war average of 10.2 months.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 17 October, South China Morning Post reported that Chinese nationals residing in Ukraine were signing up for evacuation, on continuing attacks. On 15 October, China's Foreign Ministry urged its people to leave Ukraine, following which the embassy released registration forms on its WeChat account for all nationals to avail necessary assistance to lexit. So far, 186 people have registered for organized evacuation.
In the China's National Development and Reform Commission, directed PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. to stop selling gas to Europe and Asia and instead use it for their domestic use.
On 16 October, to commemorate the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, UNICEF published a study on the impact of the war in Ukraine on poverty in children. The study says that the war has pushed four million children across Eastern Europe into poverty, marking a 19 per cent increase since 2021. The study which considers data across 22 countries in the region shows that children account for 40 per cent of the total 10.4 million people that have slipped into poverty in 2022. Apart from bad quality of life due to dire financial distress, child poverty also led to increased infant mortality and school dropouts. UNICEF Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia Afshan Khan said: “Children all over the region are being swept up in this war’s terrible wake. If we don’t support these children and families now, the steep rise in child poverty will almost certainly result in lost lives, lost learning, and lost futures.”
References
Stefan Korshak, “Russia Attacks Ukraine with New Wave of Kamikaze Drones – Homes and Power Grid Hit,” Kyiv Post, 17 October 2022
“Russians strike critical infrastructure in three regions – Shmyhal,” Ukrinform, 17 October 2022
“Ukraine’s Air Force destroys 37 Shahed drones out of 43 launched by Russia Monday,” Ukrinform, 17 October 2022
“Anyone who captures Russian soldiers provides an opportunity to release our heroes - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 16 October 2022
“Partial mobilization completed in Moscow,” LENTA.RU, 17 October 2022
“The bill on the abolition of reservations from the mobilization of deputies was submitted to the State Duma,” LENTA.RU, 17 October 2022
“Turkish hub could replace Nord Stream – Gazprom,” RT, 17 October 2022
“NATO 'de-facto involved' in Ukraine conflict – Kremlin,” RT, 16 October 2022
Ekaterina Serovikova and Nazar Kapustin, “The State Duma set a condition for a gas hub in Turkey,” URA.RU, 15 October 2022
“Ukraine: Council agrees on further support under the European Peace Facility,” consilium.europa.eu, 17 October 2022
“EU ministers to discuss war developments, approve sanctions against Iran,” Ukrinform, 17 October 2022
Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros, “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year,” Wall Street Journal, 16 October 2022
"Ukrainians from all walks of life are currently being trained across the UK to help them resist the invasion of their country," UK Ministry of Defence, Twitter, 17 October 2022
“The ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania call to establish a Special Tribunal to investigate the crime of Russia's aggression,” urm.lt, 16 October 2022
“Child poverty across eastern Europe and Central Asia soars by 19 per cent, as Ukraine war and rising inflation drive four million children into poverty – UNICEF” unicef.org, 16 October 2022
“China Halts LNG Sales to Foreign Buyers to Ensure Own Supply,” Bloomberg, 17 October 2022
Kawala Xie, “Hundreds of Chinese citizens plan to evacuate Ukraine as war escalates,” scmp, 17 October 2022