NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/RT
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan, Rishma Banerjee and Madhura S Mahesh
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
Activists demand hydropower plant company to drop lawsuits
On 19 October, EURACTIV reported on activists in Bosnia & Herzegovina protesting against the Strategic Lawsuits against Public Participation (SLAPP) lawsuits filed against them for their stance on the harmful impacts of a hydropower plant on the Kasindolska river. In 2017, the hydropower plant was built by Bosnian construction company Buk Promet d.o.o, where private Belgian company, dealing with renewable energy production, Green Invest is a shareholder. However, since then, two Bosnian activists started to spread awareness about the negative impacts of the plant on the river and its natural ecosystem. In response, BUK d.o.o filed three defamation lawsuits seeking EUR 7,500 in damages with the threat of further legal action against the activists. Now, following the lawsuits, 140 organisations and groups from Europe, especially Bosnia & Herzegovina and also the US have signed an open letter which will be sent to the diplomatic representatives of Belgium, the Head of the EU Delegation in BiH, and other relevant international institutions asking to condemn the company’s recent activities. (“Belgian-based company causes environmental uproar in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” EURACTIV, 19 October 2022)
THE CZECH REPUBLIC
The three main threats to Czech security by security services
On 17 October, the Security Information Service (BIS) of Czechia identified Russia, China and radical Islam as the main international security threats to the country. Russia’s threat while decreasing, it is still existing in the form of pro-Russian political agenda touted by journalists. After Czech expelled over 100 Russian embassy staff in 2021, the threat has declined but the recent support to Ukraine has made BIS keep a close eye on any potential threats. China is an emerging yet important threat according to the BIS. With relations being strained between the two countries, the BIS has found that Chinese intelligence has kept an active interest in developments in Czechia. This is seen with them recruiting journalists to speak on Czechia. The BIS has also found that there are two “unofficial police stations” that assist Chinese citizens in Czechia. This direct connection with the Chinese state has put the BIS on edge due to Chinese law that urges all citizens to help in intelligence activities. Lastly, with respect to radical Islam, the BIS fears that there will be an increase in the number of people influenced by propaganda and future threats to the state. They are also keeping a close eye on ex-Islamists who were expelled from Czechia regarding their entry and exit from the country. (“China, Russia, and radical Islam: Security service details threats to Czechia,” expats.cz, 18 October 2022)
ESTONIA
Estonia begins trails for four men accused of cryptocurrency fraud
On 19 October, ERR News reported on the investigation on four Estonian citizens in relation to a cryptocurrency fraud, who profited EUR eight million. As per the district prosecutor Kristiina Laas, the four are suspected to have provided false information to sell the Dragcoin cryptocurrency. Laas mentioned that the four had pegged their currency to their user base, This meant that the price of the cryptocurrency would increase where there were more users. The four thus inflated the number of users falsely to increase the price of the cryptocurrency. The Head of the central criminal police’s economic crimes office said that the accused had taken advantage of a time when cryptocurrency sector was unregulated. As per Estonia’s norms, the proceedings will be conducted by the Central Criminal Police's economic crimes bureau and be directed by the Southern District Prosecutor's Office. (“Four suspected in €8-million cryptocurrency fraud,” ERR News, 20 October 2022)
ITALY
Italy’s new government to be set up by 26 October
On 19 October, the process to form a government to replace Mario Draghi's administration began. With the Giorgia Meloni from Brothers of Italia winning the major share of votes is expected to carry out the negotiations with the right alliance parties in terms of ministerial appointments to form the government and is probable to become the first female Prime Minister. Sergio Mattarella as speaker of the parliament will invite the opposition parties and the new government will take charge between 22 -24th October upon winning a vote of confidence in the parliament. (“Italy begins negotiations on forming new government,” Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2022)
LATVIA
Potential coalition partners reach agreement on Administrative Territorial Reform
On 18 October, the potential coalition partners of New Unity and Combined List in Latvia held a meeting, where they reached agreements on Administrative Territorial Reform and the sea port reform and also discussed the way forward. New Unity’s leader, Krisjanis Karins said that discussion on these issues at this point of Latvia's government formation was crucial. He mentioned that the topics discussed at the meeting would be positive news for his upcoming meeting with President Egils Levits on 24 October. Combined List politician and head of Liepaja Party Uldis Sesks spoke about the issue. She said that the new government must not backtrack from the improvements discussed on the sea port reform. Sesks reiterated that the Combined List and the New Unity agreed on Latvia’s need to create a state-owned LNG terminal with a connection to the Inčukalns gas storage facility. (“Coalition partners in Latvia agree on state reforms; government composition not discussed,” bbn-news.com, 19 October 2022)
10,000 Latvian homes have household electricity generation systems
On 19 October, ENG.LSM.lv reported that Latvia was making great progress in terms of self-generation of electricity in households. Earlier, the number of Latvia’s micro-generators, mostly in the form of solar panels reached 10 000, with 80 megawatts of capacity. It can thus account for almost 10 per cent of the country’s energy needs. Latvia's electricity distribution network, Sadales tīkls, (ST) said that the Marupe municipality has the greatest number of microgenerators with around 1020, followed by Rīga with 860. In a statement, ST said: "We have been lagging behind the development of the RES for many years in the Baltic States, but in the first half of this year, we outperformed Estonia at microgeneration development rates and are continuing this rapid rise. In fact, we've run a marathon like a sprint.” (“Electricity-generating homes hit 10,000 mark in Latvia,” Eng.LSM.lv, 19 October 2022)
LITHUANIA
Kaunas installs its first diagonal crossing for pedestrians
On 19 February, LRT.lt reported that X crossings have been marked in Lithuania’s second-biggest city, Kaunas for the first time. At such crossings, all vehicular movement is stopped from all directions at the same time, to make it easier for the pedestrians to cross in all direction, including diagonally. They are installed in places, which record heavy pedestrian footfall, like the world’s busiest pedestrian intersection at Shibuya, Tokyo. The head of the Transport and Traffic Organisation Division at Kaunas Municipality spoke about the benefits of such crossings and said: “It is also comfortable and safe for disabled people, with lowered kerbs to make it easier to move.” He also added that the city might consider more diagonal crossings in the future. (“Kaunas installs Lithuania’s first X crossing,” LRT.lt, 19 October 2022)
SLOVENIA
UNHCR releases factsheet on refugee situation
On 19 October, the UNHCR released a factsheet on the condition of refugees in Slovenia for September. The report said that due to the additional 8000 people from Ukraine along with 5000 new asylum applications from other countries, Slovenia's reception capacity is under stress. Until September 7768 of the 8117 Ukrainian refugees were registered under temporary protection. Monitored closely by the UNHCR, 39 per cent of the children were also enrolled in primary and secondary education. Of the refugees from other countries, Afghanistan remained the top country of origin for new arrivals and record numbers of people also arrived from India, Burundi and Cuba. (“UNHCR Slovenia Factsheet, September 2022,” reliefweb.int, 19 October 2022)
SWITZERLAND
MCTR chair shifts from Russia to Switzerland
On 19 October, members of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MCTR) met in the plenary meeting, where Switzerland replaced Russia as a chair of the MCTR. Ambassador Benno Laggner was appointed as the Swiss chair who will head Switzerland efforts towards control the WMD and the delivery system. In a statement the government said: “Switzerland is assuming the chair of the MTCR at a sensitive time, especially as the current international context and recent security developments have made multilateral consensus-building efforts more difficult.” Although MCTR has the power to decide on the nature of materials and equipment’s used in ballistic missiles, it lacks the legal power. (“Switzerland replaces Russia as chair of ballistic missile body,” Swissinfo, 19 October 2022)
THE UK
The UK’s Prime Minister under pressure from the Tory MPs
On 19 October, UK parliament witnessed drastic set of events in one day with member of the Tory urging Prime Minister Liz Truss to step down and Suella Braverman resigning from her Home Secretary position on concern of “direction of the government.” An immediate replacement was Grant Shapps former transport secretary. Followed by the resignation the vote conducted on fracking upon the Tory ministers request to verify whether it was done in confidence of the government, where 326 voted against the ban, 230 were in favour, and 40 avoided to vote. With the increased pressure two ways Truss can survive would be due to unavailability of an alternate leader to head the Tory and secondly the worry amongst the parliament over UK’s economy slide. (“Crisis for Truss deepens after day of chaos,” BBC, 20 October 2022)
REGIONAL
Italy to command Bulgarian NATO battlegroup
On 17 October, Bulgaria hosted Italian Defence Minister Lorenzo Guerini, and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher G. Cavoli for the change of command of NATO’s multinational battlegroup. The battlegroup in Bulgaria is now under the command of Italy’s Colonel Francesco Alaimo. Italy will now command the 1,100 troops from several NATO countries based in Bulgaria specialising in manoeuvring, infantry, air defence, anti-tank and engineering. Established in March in Bulgaria, the group will fight with the host nation in times of need outlining the collective defence principle of NATO. (“Italy takes command of NATO’s multinational battlegroup in Bulgaria,” nato.int, 17 October 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Poland to buy military equipment from South Korea
On 18 October, Polish Defence Ministry released a statement outlining its purchase of rocket launchers from South Korea. The deal will arm Poland with 18 new 288 K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers in 2023 and be installed on Polish Jelcz vehicles. Poland is also receiving its order of K2 tanks and K9 artillery from South Korea made in early 2022. These deals reflect Poland’s move to ramp up its weapons stock after Russia invaded Ukraine. This new deal has made Poland the largest buyer of arms from South Korea. (“Poland To Buy 288 Multiple Rocket Launchers From South Korea,” Barron’s, 18 October 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Hungary inaugurates new 5G-logistics terminal
On 18 October, Hungary became the first European country to have a land-based intermodal logistics terminal using 5G technology. Located in Fenyeslitke, it was built by Vodafone Hungary with network support from Huawei. The entire project cost more than HUF 40 billion and is the largest facility in Europe in its theoretical capacity and area. The main function of the terminal is to help tranship rail shipments and has the potential to become the largest rail hub for Ukraine’s food exports. (“Europe's first 5G-operated logistics terminal opens in Hungary,” CGTN, 19 October 2022)
Turkey to use blockchain technology for new services project
On 19 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan outlined his plans for the e-Human project to be powered by blockchain technology. Unveiled at Turkey’s national blockchain summit, it will be used to enhance the protection of the system’s capabilities, data and services. The e-Human project was introduced to help people access key government services regarding jobs, education and talent acquisition. It looks forward to increasing employment and growth of citizens. This new move comes when the Turkish government promotes an anti-crypto stance but at the same time, it promotes using technology in building infrastructure and expanding its ecosystem. (“Turkey taps blockchain for e-Human project, President Erdoğan announces,” cointelegraph, 19 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 238
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 19 October, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported in a Facebook post that Russia was trying to suppress the Defence Forces in all directions while holding on to the temporarily occupied regions in Ukraine. The report also said that the Defence Forces Unit had struck down 10 of the 14 Iranian-made Shahed-136 suicide drones. Russia is also trying to hide the logistics of military equipment and personnel. They had blocked mobile and internet operators from working as a measure to hide their movement in the Kherson region. Russian troops had also destroyed Ukrainian heritage sites, robbed museums, and burned their books and literature printed in Russian. Russia still has the support of Belarus and it helps launch Russia’s missiles from its territory.
On 19 October, Ukraine’s Cabinet Ministers approved the procedure to send the soldiers fighting in the war to foreign countries for treatment. People from the defence and security forces will be given treatment in foreign countries if they fulfil mandatory conditions like a referral for treatment abroad and a notification from the Emergency Response Coordination Center of the European Commission. The transportation of said soldiers to the hospitals abroad will be organized by the Health Ministry with the assistance of the Defence Ministry, the Internal Affairs Ministry, the Administration of the State Border Service and the Foreign Affairs Ministry.
On 19 October, according to Melitopol’s Mayor Ivan Fedorov, Russia was forcing the residents of the Kherson region to flee to their country with a promise of money and housing. The reason for the forcible deportation was that Russia wanted the residents to be protected from enemies. However, Federov thinks that Russia is seeking to make Kherson its outpost in the south of Ukraine.
On the same day, the National Republican Army sent evidence of hacking important information from Russia’s defence and intelligence contractors. The NRA had breached important files of Technoserv, which Russia uses as a defence consultancy service. The bank that Technoserv own, Promsvyazbank, was also the victim of the hacking. According to the UK government intelligence, 70 per cent of the state contracts signed by Russia’s Defence Ministry are serviced by Promsvyazbank. The hackers had sent 1.2 terabytes of documents, files, and screenshots to Kyiv Post and had left a note to Technoserv informing them of hacking their servers. The NRA is opposed to Putin and is trying to stand against the ruling regime.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 19 October, RT reported that Putin issued a decree to imposing ae martial law on the four occupied regions, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The martial law will be put come into practise from had started on midnight of 20 October. The decree orders the Russian government to submit action plans for these regions within three days and a three-level security across Ukraine and Russia. First, he also signed a decree ordering a “mid-level response” state in other Russian-occupied parts such as the Crimean Republic, the city of Sevastopol, Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov regions. Second, a “heightened readiness,” in the central, southern parts of Russia, where a tight search on vehicles and public order will be carried out. Third, the last level of security will be applied in the northern Russia, Serbia, and its far-east.
On 19 October, TASS reported that the attack on Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station may be fatal to the Kherson region as it will be subject to flooding from the Dnieper River. The residents were asked to evacuate from the right side to the left side for safety due to the flood warning.
On 19 October, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a virtual meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. Putin discussed the recent referendums and problems faced by Russia during the special operation in Ukraine. Through the presidential decree a special coordination council was set up under the head of the cabinet of ministers, which will ensure close interaction with every district in the country. He also addressed the issue on payment of monetary allowance by announcing 195,000 rubles per month to those recruited under the partial mobilization. In the council meeting they also discussed on ways to improve the State Migration Policy.
On 10 October, Russian oil company Rosneft expanded its tanker chartering business ahead of the EU sanctions on Russia’s oil export. The EU had placed sanctions on Russian oil tankers, which will make Russia redirect 25 per cent of its oil exports to new markets. Rosneft will deliver the oil export before the embargo comes into effect. The Russian oil company had used the free-on-board (FOB) scheme in oil sales that lets the buyer bear the costs of charter tankers, freight, insurance and delivery. Rosneft through the charter tankers, will help customers who are not subject to the sanctions in handling freight and shipping. Rosneft offering charter tankers will help customers who are inexperienced with handling freight and shipping.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 October, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country could become a hub for gas to Europe through supplying Russian gas. Putin had said that he would make Turkey a hub for natural gas by redirecting the fossil fuel supplied through Nord Stream pipelines to the TurkStream pipeline. The pipeline aims to supply gas to the European states through the Thrace region bordering Greece and will also provide service to Serbia and Hungary. Erdogan said that Turkey could become a relief factor to Europe’s energy crisis following the gas leaks in Nord Stream pipelines.
On 19 October, in an address at the European Parliament, the European Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, accused Russia for committing war crimes through attacks on civilian infrastructure aimed at cutting water and power supplies to the region. She called the attack an “Act of Pure Terror”.
On 19 October, the UK government’s intelligence in its daily update reported on how the change in Russian military’s leadership did not benefit the Russians and has resulted in more confusion within the army. The shortage of capable leaders in the country, as most died. It has caused disruption within the army and has weakened its strength. Consecutive defeats in the battlefield and weakening of leadership has reduced the morale of the Russian troops. The troops also lack coordination among them in many areas.
On 19 October, the EU agreed to impose a new set of sanctions on Iran, especially its generals and officials, for providing Russia with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. These suicidal drones were used in the recent attack on Kyiv by Russia. The sanctions were imposed on Shahed Aviation Industries, the company that manufactures the drone, along with Maj Gen Mohammad Hossein bagheri, who is significant in Iran’s defence cooperation with Russia, Gen Sayed Hojatollah Qureishi, head of Iran’s supply and research at its Defence Ministry, Brig Gen Saeed Aghajani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace for UAV command, in the form of travel bans and freezing of assets.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 18 October, Reuters reported on India and Russia's joint venture BrahMos Aerospace which aims to make USD five billion by 2025. It signed its first deal with the Philippines for USD 375 million in 2022. The joint venture includes Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam for further weaponry export orders. India owns 50.5 per cent, while Russia holds 49.5 per cent of the partnership, complying with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s make-in-India programme. The joint venture looks to provide funds for Russia amidst the ongoing war.
On 18 October, UAE’s President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan announced to allocate of USD 100 million as humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. UAE has provided a series of aid to war-torn Ukraine after the UN appeal and the regional refugee response plan with an aim to support Ukraine.
On 19 October, DOHANEWS reported that Qatar’s Energy Minister and Qatar Energy CEO Saad Sherida Al Kaabi cautioned that the energy crisis of Europe would last till 2025. He said that Russia’s gas and oil contributed to Europe’s energy storage significantly and that it would suffer once that supply finished off. Qatar could only fill 10 to 15 per cent of Europe's gas storage in the future.. According to him, Europe should look at cleaner fossil fuels as a long-term solution, as renewable sources may take longer duration and it would be impossible for Europe to fully phase out of Russian gas.
On 19 October, Israel offered to aid the Ukrainians in developing civilian air attack alerts. Israel will help Ukraine in countering Iranian-made drones used by Russia. However, Ukraine had asked for defence systems to destroy the incoming kamikaze Shahed-136 drone. Israel has been reluctant to help Ukraine, although they had condemned Russia for invading it. Israel wanted to give an early warning system that sets off sirens or mobile phone alerts to warn people to seek protection via a radar network. Israel said that it would help Ukraine with humanitarian aid and not with military aid because it wanted relations with Russia for its help in Syria.
References
General Staff of the Armed Forces, “Operational information as of 06.00 19.10.2022 on the Russian invasion,” Facebook, 19 October 2022
Jason Jay Smart, “Russians Against Putin: NRA Claims Massive Hack of Russian Government Contractors’ Computers,” Kyiv Post, 18 October 2022
“Invaders to forcibly deport Kherson residents en masse,” Ukrinform, 19 October 2022
“The government updated the procedure for sending defenders of Ukraine for treatment abroad,” kmu.gov.ua, 19 October 2022
“Rosneft gets into oil shipping ahead of EU embargo,” RT, 19 October 2022
“Putin introduces martial law in former Ukrainian regions,” RT, 19 October 2022
“Security Council meeting,” kremlin.ru, 19 October 2022
“Kherson Region closed to inbound civilian traffic for seven days — local official,” TASS, 19 October 2022
“Kherson governor warns of flooding if nearby hydropower station’s water gates breached,” TASS, 19 October 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 October 2022,” Twitter, 19 October 2022
“Russian attacks on Ukraine infrastructure are war crimes - EU's von der Leyen,” Reuters, 19 October 2022
Jennifer Rankin, “EU plans to impose sanctions on Iran military leaders over drones,” The Guardian, 19 October 2022
Emily Rose, “Israel offers help with air-attack alerts, but Ukraine wants interceptors,” Reuters, 19 October 2022
Fatemeh Salari, “Europe risks ‘much worse’ energy crisis next year: QatarEnergy CEO,” DOHANEWS, 19 October 2022
Jennifer Bell, “UAE president orders $100 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine,” Al Arabiya, 19 October 2022
“India-Russia joint venture hopes for $5 billion in supersonic missile exports by 2025,” The Times of India, 18 October 2022
“India-Russia joint venture hopes for $5 bln in supersonic missile exports by 2025,” Reuters, 18 October 2022