NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Ukrinform
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan, Rishma Banerjee, and Sai Pranav
DENMARK
The Moderates secure a chance to win 17 seats in the upcoming elections
On 19 October, a poll by Voxmeter institute showed that the Moderates had increased from 4.1 to 9.2 points. Mette Frederiksen’s ruling party, the Social Democrats, are the top as per the poll with 87 seats, and the opposition liberals are in second place with 71 seats. In case of Denmark’s former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen’s Moderates are expected to get 17 seats out of 179 in the parliament. To secure a majority 90 seats are required. (“Denmark’s former PM Rasmussen on course for election surprise in poll,” THE LOCAL dk, 19 October 2022)
FINLAND
Probe over Drone activities in Southwest Finland
On 20 October, drones were sighted in Southwestern Finland, which houses important infrastructures such as water plants. The Chief Rescue Inspector of Southwestern Finland’s Regional Administrative Agency, Unto Usvasalo, said there was no information on the perpetrators or reason for the drone flights. Citizens were advised to report any suspicious activities. The Committee that investigated the matter speculates that drones could have aimed at the security of water supply amid the harsh economic conditions. The only concern is over social peace and the spread of misinformation. However, the preparedness committee assured the safety of the water supply. (Hannu Vahamaki, “Suspicious drones have been seen in the vicinity of the waterworks in Southwest Finland,” yle.fi, 20 October 2022)
New amendment to real estate acquisition act to ensure national security safety
On 20 October, Finland’s government has submitted a proposal to the parliament for supervising real estate ownership. The Act changes licence requirements in real estate acquisition. A new section will be added to the act so that real estate acquisitions would not harm national security. A licence application will be rejected if the stated puropese does coincide with real estate acquired. The Defence Ministry has the right investigate and enquire about the real estate acquisition if they find it unsuitable. To ensure the national security, the state would have the right to buy pre-emptively if the real estate acquisition becomes a threat. State’s pre-emptive rights prevail over municipality rights. The amendment will take effect from early 2023. (“Government proposal to Parliament: Real estate purchases must not endanger national security,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 20 October 2022)
FRANCE
Macron uses constitutional power to push 2023 budget through
On 19 October, the Guardian reported on French President, Emmanuel Macron using of special constitutional powers to force through the France’s 2023 budget. Far-right National Rally and left coalition Nupes accused Macron’s government practicing authoritarianism. The government’s pro-business budget was forcefully pushed through even though it received opposition from other parties. The Ministers justified the budget as way to protect people from the cost-of-living crisis and avoid tax increases. Marine Le Pen of the National Rally and Jean-Luc Melenchon from the left coalition wanted no-confidence motion against Macron. The right-wing and left-wing parties had voted against the budget leaving Macron to use the constitutional decree to push it through. Macron’s government justified that they had to take the decision due to intentional obstruction of passing the budget by the opposition parties. (Angelique Chrisafis, “French government to use constitutional powers to force through budget,” The Guardian, 19 October 2022)
LATVIA
Investigation against ex-NATO chief begins
On 19 October, an investigation was opened against ex-NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen by Latvian police. He is accused of playing a role in bankrupting PNB Banka where over EUR 140 million worth of assets went missing. Rasmussen served as the Danish Prime Minister before assuming his role in NATO. His spokesperson did not comment on this issue. Adding that the former deputy chairman of PNB’s independent steering group was acting “irresponsibly” the administrators said that EUR 140 million led to “gaps” in the bank’s assets. With former executives also being a part of the investigation, Rasmussen's case was set aside in Denmark when the bank’s lawyer unsuccessfully tried to have it brought before the country’s Supreme Court. (“Latvian police probe former NATO chief,” aa.com.tr, 19 October 2022)
SLOVENIA
Whistleblowers are protected under the new act passed by Slovenia
On 19 October, EURACTIV reported that Slovenia’s government introduced a bill that protects whistle-blowers. The bill is applicable in protecting those that report breaking of the EU laws and state laws as well. The bill also forbids employers from retaliating or terminating employees over whistleblowing. The employees who are retaliated receive free legal aid, unemployment benefits and counselling to pursue a case against their employers. Those that have been terminated are protected by the judicial system and receive needed supportive measures. Even though corruption is not prominent in Slovenia, organizations fighting corruption has been asking the government to pass a legislature protecting whistle-blowers. (Sebastijan R Macek, “Slovenia adopts whistleblowers act,” EURACTIV, 20 October 2022)
THE UK
Liz Truss resigns as the UK Prime Minister
On 20 October, the UK’s Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned from office due to pressure from her fellow conservative party members. She is the shortest-serving Prime Minister in the history of the UK, and it is the first time the UK has had two elections in four months. The withdrawal of the tax cut scheme caused economic instability in the UK. She said: “I recognise that I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party,” her mandate being to cut taxes and boost the economic growth of the UK. She added that the conservative party leader and the Prime Minister would be elected within the next week. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to participate in the snap election. (Joshua Nevett, “Liz Truss exit sets off another Tory leadership race,” BBC, 20 October 2022)
REGIONAL
Spain, Portugal and France agree to build a green corridor pipeline
On 20 October, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedri Sanchez and the Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa agreed on replacing the MidCat gas pipeline project with a cleaner green energy corridor at a meeting held in Brussels. France has been opposing the MidCat project for strategic and environmental reasons. The concerns that the MidCat pipeline will not be environmentally and economically viable by France has led to the demise of the project. France has agreed for a more ecological alternative pipeline between itself and the Iberian peninsula. The new green energy corridor will carry clean hydrogen that will be more ecological than the natural gas. The link between Barcelona and Marseille will named as BarMar connects Spain and France through a sea link. Portugal and Spain will also be linked through green interconnectors between Celourico da Beira and Zamora (CelZa). The pipeline will connect the energy island to the rest of the Europe through France. Gas will be transported through this pipeline for a short-term European energy market needs during the transition period to green energy. (Carlos E Cue and Silvia Ayuso, “Sánchez, Macron and Costa agree on a green energy corridor between Barcelona and Marseille instead of MidCat,” el pais, 20 October 2022)
Exempted from following the gas price cap
On 21 October, in the European Council summit held to discuss on imposing of energy price cap, Hungary Prime Minister Victor Orban said that the European Commission’s proposal posed an energy risk, threatening its gas supplies despite supply from Europe. He highlighted that Hungary was not in alone in opposing the price and in face of keeping the gas supplies intact, defending Hungary interest was priority. Therefore, Hungary will be exempted from the application of energy price cap. (“Hungary Receives Exemption from the Gas Price Cap,” Hungary Today, 21 October 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
German banks collaborate with Austria over crypto trading
On 20 October, Germany’s online bank N26 had started allowing customers in Austria to trade in Austrian cryptocurrencies in its first foray into the asset class. The German bank said it would enlarge its service abroad to facilitate the trade of almost 200 cryptocurrencies. N26 has joined hands with Austria-based cryptocurrency. The problem for N26 is that, it does not have licence to be traded in Germany. Cryptocurrencies which have been falling due to it being a risky investment but the EU is planning on voting new rules for crypto assets in December or early 2023. Even though cryptocurrencies are higher risk investments, N26 says that there have been growing requests for them. (“German online bank N26 to launch crypto trading in Austria,” Reuters, 20 October 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
US authorities arrest Latvians for Russia ties
On 19 October, the US Department of Justice arrested three Latvians for allegedly trying to send advanced technology to Russia. The accused reportedly made the purchase through shell companies to evade sanctions placed on Russia. They made the purchase disguised for the European market but were caught by Latvian officials. The technology was a high-precision profiling machine produced in Connecticut which can be used in weapons manufacturing and nuclear weapons programs. The US Justice Department said some of the “…powerful, civil-military, dual-use technologies” were found, which included the Latvians. Intercepting the jig grinder in Riga, Latvia, the US authorities worked with Latvian authorities to capture the miscreants. The cargo was detained at the Latvian- Russian border, with the three suspects held in the Latvian territory by VID Taxes and Customs Police. (“US busts schemes allegedly selling high-tech to Russia; Latvians charged,” Eng.LSM.lv, 20 October 2022)
Proposal for a new collaboration over elevator production
On 20 October, Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko proposed a project to produce elevators in collaboration with Armenia. The project is expected to bring “machine building competencies as part of the foreign trade and a step to future projects in mechanical engineering. The trade between Belarus and Armenia in 2021 accounted for USD 97.2 million and USD 105.7 million as of August 2022. (“Belarus' proposal for joint manufacturing project supported by Armenia,” Belta, 20 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 239
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 20 October, Energoatom President Petro Kotin spoke about the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and elaborated on why it was necessary to ensure its protection. He accused Russia of trying to seek control of the plant, thus threatening a global disaster. Kotin also said that on 15 September, Russia's forces broke into the chief engineer's office and declared that Russia would control the plant. He then went on to outline why it was imperative to keep at least one power unit functional, as the steam from the unit is the only way to keep operating conditions of the equipment in optimum condition. He also mentioned that the plant switches to diesel generators if disconnected from the power grid. However, there is a chance of a Fukushima-like disaster, if the diesel generators stop or fail.
On 20 October, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked the forces in the Russian occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine to “avoid” being recruited into the Russian army. Mentioning his meeting with the European Commissioner for Crisis Management, he added that the humanitarian needs of Ukrainians were supported by other EU member states. He requested the people to leave the temporarily occupied territories “as much as they can.”
On 20 October, Zelenskyy introduced electricity saving-measures following Russia's attack on several power grids across the country. 30 per cent of the country's power stations were affected due to the drone and missile strikes, and thus, Ukraine has asked its citizens to restrict their electricity consumption drastically. On this issue, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that even a small saving or reduction in energy usage would be helpful for the national energy system.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 19 October, RT reported on Russia’s President Vladimir Martial Law in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions. With these provinces accepting to be a part of the Russian territory, Putin said that they “accepted” their bids and that the Russian law would “ratify” the law quickly. Second, Alert regimes. In another decree, Putin announced a “medium action level” in other regions of Russia, including the Crimean Republic, Sevastopol, Krasnodar, etc. The regime gives officials in the region extra authority to assure security and react immediately in case of emergencies, with the additional four regions having a “maximum” level of authority. Third, Government coordination. Putin directed the federal government to formalize a special coordination centre to address wider aspects of the Ukraine crisis, starting from weapon system repairs to the provision of medical treatment to injured persons. He said that Moscow would assist the officials in handling new tasks and powers. Fourth, support of mobilized reservists. Among a set of directives given to the Defense Ministry, Putin mentioned the need to ensure that individuals enrolled in active military service under the partial mobilization decree are to be paid their dues. Setting a minimum monthly age of 195,000 rubles, Putin added that he’s “reacting” to cases of postponement of wages being paid, and stressed providing the military “what it needs to do its job properly.” On the same, presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified Vladimir Putin’s stance on the introduction of martial law in the four former Ukrainian regions. He said that Russia was not planning to close the borders.
On 20 October, Kherson’s Deputy Governor, Kirill Stremousov said that the relocation of civilians in the area was under control. He described the process as organized and was progressing as per plan and hailed the martial rule initiated by Putin as a measure that would further ensure the safety of civilians.
On 20 October, the Russian Military of Defence used a tank reserve to curb their offensive in Kherson. Near the village of Sukhanovo in Kherson region, the military thwarted Ukraine’s charge. A representative of the department made known that the Ukrainian forces “fled randomly” from the front after the disruption of their offensive. Saying that Russian troops near the Sukhanovo village were “ambushed” but recovered quickly. Adding that the position of the Russian forces on the front line of defence has been “fully restored.” The Ministry of Defence also reported on the “attempt” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cross the Stallion River in the Red Limansk direction.
On the same day, Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky denied the veracity of the West’s claim about Iran’s drone exports to Russia. He said that this was a disinformation campaign to target both Iran and Russia with the same narrative.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 20 October, US federal prosecutors in Brooklyn charged five Russian nationals for evading sanctions imposed against them and shipping military technologies bought in the US to buyers in Russia. A federal prosecutor in Brooklyn, Breon Peace commented on the development and said, “We will continue to investigate, disrupt and prosecute those who fuel Russia's brutal war in Ukraine, evade sanctions and perpetuate the shadowy economy of transnational money laundering”. Of the five Russian nationals, Yury Orekhov and Svetlana Kuzurgasheva had purchased semiconductors, radas and satellites, and had used a German company to ship the military technology.
On the same day, German newspaper Bild reported that Germany’ President Frank Walter Steinmeier had cancelled his trip to Kyiv to meet President Zelenskyy, due to the recent escalation in missile and drone attacks on the capital. While the strategically important trip had been planned for months, Steinmeier’s security authorities have advised against the trip. A presidential spokesperson said that the trip had been important for both sides, and for now a phone call has been arranged for the two presidents.
On 20 October, Lithuania’s Education, Science and Sports Ministry allocated funds for Ukrainian athletes who had moved to Lithuania. EUR 81,500 will be distributed to the athletes via the corresponding sporting foundations of seven sports- swimming, tennis, athletics, hockey, handball, bodybuilding and Kyokushin karate.
On 21 October, BBC reported on Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s comments on a “potentially dangerous” incident of Russia deploying a missile from their aircraft near an unarmed RAF plane over the Black Sea. He alleged that Russia was not beyond using the “wrong calculations” and posing an attack, and that this incident should serve as a reminder of how volatile it can be when “…you choose to use your fighters in the manner that the Russians have done.” However, Wallace said that this was not being viewed as a “deliberate escalation” by the UK. Russia said that the incident had occurred due to technical malfunction.
On 20 October, The Washington Post reported on the US government examining the damages caused by Iran-made drones that have been shot down in Ukraine. The objective is to better understand the drone’s structure and technology that would help the US and Ukraine identify the level of threat from these drones. It is however unclear how the US accessed the drone wreckage. Earlier, on the same lines Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said: “We all have to understand that we all have to put our efforts to that. To understand how it works, and to understand how to take it down… Because it’s not only the question of Ukraine at war at the moment, but it’s a question of all of us who are in the situation where we are.”
On 19 October, EU leaders and social partners met at the tripartite social summit. They primarily discussed the cost of living crisis and the energy crisis that is affecting the EU. They also spoke about the impact of the Ukraine war. Europe Council President Charles Michel said that while the EU has taken some measure, more needs to be done soon, for the EU to avoid severe crisis. Europe Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke about the initiatives put forward by the Commission to help alleviate the pressure on the economy, but urged everyone to be “on board.” The General Secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) Luca Visentini called for energy price caps and a windfall tax on excess profits for emergency payments.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 20 October, Euronews reported that Madagascar's president had fired his Foreign Affairs Minister for his vote at the UN General assembly against Russia's referendums. Minister Richard Randriamandrato had voted in favour of not recognising the occupied regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, DPR AND LPR as parts of Russia. However, this was not aligned with Madagascar's official neutral stance. Thus, Randriamandrato was fired for voting in favour.
On 20 October, India's government issued an advisory to its citizens in Ukraine. Announced through the Indian embassy in Kyiv, the advisory referred to the worsening security conditions in Ukraine and urged citizens and students to leave the country at the earliest.
References
“Ukraine Restricts Electricity Use After Russian Strikes,” Kyiv Post, 20 October 2022
“Energoatom Chief Warns of “Fukushima Scenario” at Zaporizhzhia NPP,” Kyiv Post, 20 October 2022
“President Zelensky: Occupiers will try to recruit men into their army, avoid this as much as you can,” Ukrinform, 20 October 2022
“As Russia Retreats, Abandoned Gear Joins Ranks of Ukraine Army,” Kyiv Post 20 October 2022
“Putin announces new security measures in Russia,” RT, 19 October 2022
“The Russian military thwarted the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson,” LENTA.RU, 20 October 2022
“Russia’s deputy UN envoy dismisses reports of Iran’s drone exports to Russia,” TASS, 20 October 2022
“Russia will not shut borders – Kremlin,” RT, 19 October 2022
“Kherson Region official says relocation progressing well,” TASS, 20 October 2022
“Lithuania government allocates over €80,000 for Ukrainian athletes,” LRT.lt, 20 October 2022
“Russian jet released missile near RAF aircraft over Black Sea,” BBC, 20 October 2022
Luc Cohen and Daphne Psaledakis, “U.S. charges Russians for shipping military equipment, Venezuelan oil,” Reuters, 20 October 2022
“German President Steinmeier cancels long-awaited visit to Kyiv,” POLITICO, 20 October 2022
Shane Harris, Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton and Karen DeYoung “U.S. has viewed wreckage of kamikaze drones Russia used in Ukraine,” The Washington Post, 20 October 2022
“‘New era’: Chinese senior diplomat highlights partnership with Russia,” TASS, 20 October 2022
“Madagascar minister fired for voting against Russia's Ukraine annexation,” Euronews, 20 October 2022
“Indian Embassy ask all Indians to leave Ukraine,” The Statesman, 20 October 2022