NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : ISW/Critical Threats
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee
DENMARK
Private sectors hope for a new policy to counter labour shortages
On 21 October, THE LOCAL dk reported on the decrease in the number of employees in Denmark’s private sector. The private industry waits for the November elections to propose for upskilling more employees to the new government. So far, labour shortages can be seen across private, public, health and social care sectors, lack of skilled employees has resulted in the reduction of private industries revenue. (“Danish companies demand political pledge for 50,000 new staff,” THE LOCAL dk, 21 October 2022)
FINLAND
The amendment to Climate Act focuses on implementing joint climate plan in municipalities
On 20 October, Finland’s government approved the proposal for revising the Climate Act. Mission targets are set for 2030, 2040 and 2050 by the Climate Act, where it aims to make Finland carbon-neutral by 2035. The new amendment focuses on municipalities across Finland drawing up their own climate plans or collaborating with other municipalities to draw a joint climate plan through an annual budget of EUR 2.6 million. The climate targets provided by municipalities are much more efficient than the national ones making it easier for the country to become carbon-neutral. The municipality plans will quickly boost Finland's climate work to achieve the targets and also targets reducing greenhouse gas emissions in municipalities and measures to control the emissions. (“Government proposal: Municipalities obliged to draw up climate plans in future,” Helsinki Times, 21 October 2022)
ICELAND
Minister of Justice proposal to revise the Foreign National Act rejected
On 21 October, Iceland’s Justice Minister Jon Gunnarsson proposed a bill in the parliament to amend the Foreign National Act, which looks at authorization to enter, stay and their right to international protection. Gunnarsson's revision in the act is that a foreign national whose application of international protection was denied should be stripped of their rights such as healthcare, education and housing after 30 days of rejection. The asylum seekers will then be deported. The bill was equally rejected by opposition parties and the Prime Minister. They deem the amendment unnecessary and blamed the war in Ukraine for the increase in the number of refugees. (Ragnar Tomas, “Bill to Amend Foreign Nationals Act Distributed Among MP’s,” Iceland review, 21 October 2022
POLAND
Ministry of National Defence leases US based drones ahead of purchase
On 21 October, the Polish Ministry of National Defence leased a US made MQ-9A as it gets ready to buy MQ-9B drones. This is one of Poland's latest moves to arm itself after the invasion of Ukraine. The contract for MQ-9B drones will include a training facility until the Polish Armed Forces and if it goes the, Poland will become the first NATO ally in the Eastern Flank to have a medium-altitude-long-endurance drone. (“Poland leases MQ-9A Reapers ahead of drone buy,” DefenseNews, 21 October 2022)
SLOVENIA
Geoplin gears up to get natural gas from Algeria
On 21 October, Slovenia's Infrastructure Minister announced that Geoplin (Natural gas company) will be signing a contract with Algeria's Sonatrach to buy natural gas. Though the terms of the deal is yet to be revealed, Geoplin is expected to buy 300 million cubic metres of natural gas, thus accounting for third of the country's requirements. Prime Minister Robert Golob indicated that the contract would be for a minimum of three-years. The gas would be imported through Italy via an existing pipeline that has sufficient capacity. (Sebastijan R. MaÄek, “Slovenia on cusp of signing gas supply deal with Algeria,” EURACTIV, 21 October 2022)
REGIONAL
Greece to collaborate with Austria and Germany for renewable energy cable
On 22 October, Ekathimerini reported that Greece’s Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas suggestion to build an electricity cable that would produce electricity from renewable sources connecting Austria and Germany to Greece. At a renewable energy conference in Athens, Skrekas said that a proposal for the same has been submitted to Austria’s Energy Minister. The project aligns with Greece’s efforts to expand its renewable energy capabilities to 70 per cent by 2030. Running through Albania and other Balkan countries, initially the cable would have a capacity of three gigawatts which could be increased to nine gigawatts. Discussions with Austria and Germany are being conducted for the funding of the project. (“Greece proposes power link to Austria and Germany,” ekathimerini.com, 22 October 2022)
Cross-border control to be made permanent, Ulf Kristersson
On 21 October, in an interview with the Sydsvenskan (Sweden newspaper) Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that the border control between Denmark and Sweden along the Oresund Bridge would remain permanent. Border control is placed to reduce cross-border crimes and migration problems. However, the border control measures go against EU law. The EU permits cross-border control for only six months, not as a permanent solution. The opposition says there should be more cooperation between the Nordic countries rather than cause division. The first border control was placed in 2015 by Sweden’s Social Democrats. (“Swedish PM calls for ‘permanent border control’ with Denmark,” THE LOCAL DK, 21 October 2022)
Scandinavian and Baltic states advised to be mindful of electricity usage
On 21 October, Eng.LSM.lv reported on the electricity storage of the Scandinavian and Baltic States. The transmission system operators of the countries released a report analysing the amount of electricity that can be supplied to the region. As per the report, the upcoming winter is likely to one of the most challenging ones in recent years. Even though the reserves are full, they are limited in capacity, which exacerbates the crisis. The analysis also does not does not instruct any citizen or organization to cut down on their consumption. However, transmission operator, “High Voltage Network” provided a statement to Nasdaq Riga on the same issue and said that given the size of the storage capacities, the countries should consider implementing supply constraints and be mindful of the amount of electricity being used by the consumers. (“Baltic, Scandinavian authorities warn of low electricity capacity reserve,” Eng.LSM.lv, 21 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 240
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 21 October, Ukraine’s Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko updated the press on their efforts to liberate Kherson and Kharkiv. According to him 88 settlements in Kherson and 551 settlements in Kharkiv have been liberated. Tymoshenko also outlined the actions being taken to restore normalcy in these settlements. Along with humanitarian aid, power lines and mobile services are being restored, and roadways are being cleared. He also highlighted the number of war crimes that have been reported in Kherson to be 156 and 1685 in Kherson.
On 21 October, Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defence Ministry (GUR) reported that mines have been placed at the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant by Russia. According to the report, the agency suspects that this has been going on since April and mining efforts have ramped up recently as Ukrainian Forces are making headway in Dnipro in Kherson. The GUR stated: “During this week, the locks and pillars of the Kakhovska HPP were additionally mined. Two tented KamAZ trucks have been parked on the dam, with no drivers in them. Both cars are fully loaded with boxes of explosives." The agency also said that if these mines were to be set off then the resulting disaster would not just affect Europe but also spill over to the entire Black Sea region.
On the same day, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and members of the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress Mike Turner, James Himes and Eric Swalwell had a meeting. The two discussed matters related to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, increasing aid and the importance of air defence systems to protect Ukraine from Russian drones. They also discussed Ukraine’s assimilation into the larger Euro-Atlantic network and the inadmissibility of nuclear threat by Russia. Both parties also looked into furthering the sanctions placed on Russia in light of its recent attacks on key civilian infrastructure.
On 20 October, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid held talks regarding Israeli air and defence systems and technology. Kuleba in a tweet detailed his call with Lapid, where he mentioned that the latter was briefed about the destruction and devastation caused by Russian attacks using Iranian technology. He also talked to the Prime Minister in detail about Ukraine’s request for Israeli air and defence systems and asked for Israel’s support in training the Ukrainian Armed Forces to operate the technology.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 21 October, the temporary head of DPR Denis Pushilin told Tass that the martial law imposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin would not change the already in-place curfew rules. Martial law was introduced to increase security in the newly annexed regions. According to Pushilin, no amendments will be made to the rules as they currently do not restrict the movement of citizens outside the republic. Back in January 2022, a curfew was placed in DPR which was removed only during the weekends to allow citizens to move freely.
On the same day, DPR’s human rights commissioner Daria Morozova announced that they had sent an appeal to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as well as the UN Human Rights Committee (UNHRC). This appeal comes after the interview of newly released Prisoners of War (POWs) from Ukraine reported that they were tortured. These POWs were a part of the exchange on 17 October when 110 Russians were released. Morozova also said that the Russian Investigative Committee and the Russian Military Prosecutor’s Office were also notified.
On 21 October, the head of the LPR mission in Moscow Rodion Miroshnik expressed that any international intervention in the Kakhovka HPP will be biased and politicised. This comes after Ukraine asked the UN and EU to establish a monitoring mission in the region due to concerns about man-made disasters. Miroshnik also said that the mission should not only focus on the Russian stronghold near the region but also on the Ukrainian stronghold where the Ukrainians have been shelling as that will also contribute to a potential disaster.
On 21 October, Russia’s State Duma Committee on International Affairs reported that the Russian delegation from Rosatom and Rostekhnadoz for the international IAEA conference was not issued American visas. Speaking to Lenta.ru the First Deputy Chairman of the Committee Dmitry Novikoy said that this was a clear disregard for international relations and also brings into question the location of the UN headquarters. The delegation from Rosatom stated that their visas were blocked by the US and that this move made the IAEA conference lose its meaning. There will be a video message from the General Director of State Corporation Alexey Likhachev on the topic “Nuclear Energy in the XXI Century.” Novikoy said that he was not surprised as there was an issue with visas for the delegation attending the UNGA also. Hence, he said that it was time to shift the headquarters to either Europe, Latin America or Asia where the US will not be able to influence decisions and strongarm member nations.
On 21 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the Governor of the Magadan region Sergey Nosov who not only briefed him on the development in Magadan but also on the work of the Eastern Military District in the newly annexed regions. Nosov said that all the tasks given to them were completed and outlined the work they have done particularly in Donbas. The force has repaired key facilities to ensure heating for winter, and they have also repaired schools and kindergartens. Nosov assured that all those who have been conscripted and their families living in Magadan have been provided support.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 21 October, the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin III and Ukraine Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov spoke on matters regarding Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself from Russian aggression. Austin expressed the US’s continued position for the support of Ukraine. He also reiterated the support of the international community in helping Ukraine survive the war and continue to help it build its defences.
On 21 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at an EU leaders summit announced that the EU will be sending a total of EUR 18 billion to Ukraine in 2023 to cover its basic budgetary needs. The total package will be divided into EUR 1.5 billion per month and von der Leyen said that more details will be released later. This comes after the IMF estimated that Ukraine will need almost USD 4 Billion in international aid per month to ensure public services are still up.
On 21 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he will be meeting Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson regarding the latter’s bid to join NATO. This comes in the background of Finland and Sweden applying for NATO membership considering Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine. Turkey had expressed doubts about the two joining the alliance as they believe that Sweden and Finland are safe havens for Kurdish Militants. When asked about this Kristersson said that both countries are ready to work with Turkey on this.
On 20 October, Bundesnetzagentur, Germany’s federal network regulator released a report which highlights that gas consumption in German households last week was down 31 per cent when it was compared to the consumption during the same period in 2018-2021. The agency attributed this to people contributing to the German government’s efforts to save gas considering the recent shortage due to the Russia-Ukraine war. They also have outlined that relatively hot weather in Germany has also contributed to this change in consumption.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 21 October, the IMF released the report of its mission in Ukraine. The Mission Chief Gavin Gray in a statement highlighted that the IMF team conducted its mission between 17-20 October in a meeting with Ukrainian authorities in Vienna. Some of the findings include a shrinking of Ukraine’s GDP, an increase in inflation, a disruption of trade and a significant increase in Ukraine’s fiscal deficit. Gray discussed these with Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko and Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshnyy. They also investigated new macro-financial developments, the 2023 budget, external financing, issues of the financial sector and policies that should be introduced for stabilising Ukraine’s economy. The authorities are now said to ask for a Program Monitoring with Board Involvement (PMB) which will investigate the matters that were discussed and help to implement it.
On 21 October, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr announced that they will be buying US military helicopters instead of Russian Mi-17 helicopters. The USD 215 million deal with Russia is being terminated due to fear of sanctions from the west and the Philippines is now looking into partial repayment of a down payment that was given to Russia for securing the initial deal. The US deal has matched the same price and includes further incentives such as service and maintenance for the helicopters. When the Russian ambassador to the Philippines was asked about the same, he told local outlets that they had not been informed of the same and believed that the contract was still valid.
On 21 October, Indonesia’s envoy to Russia reiterated that Russia’s invitation to the G20 summit will not be withdrawn despite pressure from other nations. Tavares said that the G20 summit can be an “opportunity for big economies to come together and solve the common problems we face now.”
References
“Ukraine liberates 88 settlements in Kherson region, 551 in Kharkiv region,” ukrinform, 21 October 2022
“Russians planted mines at Kakhovska HPP back in April - intelligence,” ukrinform, 21 October 2022
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the delegation of the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress,” president.gov.ua, 21 October 2022
“Israel, Ukraine discuss air defence systems after drone strikes,” aljazeera, 21 Ocotber 2022
“DPR has no plans to change curfew rules due to martial law — official,” Tass, 21 October 2022
“Any mission to Kakhovka dam initiated by Kiev will be biased, LPR envoy says,” Tass, 21 October 2022
“DPR ombudsman turns to ICRC, UN on reported torture of Russian POWs in Ukraine,” Tass, 21 October 2022
“Russia proposed to move the UN headquarters,” LENTA.RU, 21 October 2022
“Meeting with Governor of the Magadan region Sergey Nosov,” kremlin.ru, 21 October 2022
“Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Phone Call With Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov,” defense.gov, 21 OCtober
“Germans cut gas consumption amid war, warm weather,” Deutsche Welle, 20 October 2022
“EU to provide Ukraine with €18 billion in financial assistance for 2023, says von der Leyen,” euronews, 21 October 2022
“Turkey’s President ready for Nato talks with new Swedish PM,” thelocal.se, 21 October 2022
“Ukraine: Statement at the Conclusion of an IMF Mission,” imf.org, 21 October 2022
“Philippines gets US military helicopters after Russia deal dumped,” aljazeera, 21 Ocotber 2022
“Putin’s G20 invite won’t be rescinded, Indonesian envoy says,” Politico, 21 October 2022