NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
UK: Three Challenges to Rishi Sunak, the new Prime Minister
On 25 October, Rishi Sunak was appointed as UK’s Prime Minister formally after being asked to form the government by King Charles. In his first address he said: “I will place economic stability and confidence at the heart of this government's agenda. This will mean difficult decisions to come.” The UK will now have its third Prime Minister for the year after turbulent political and economic turns. In the case of the conservative party which pulled down Boris Johnson after the party scandal and Liz Truss after the cluttery economic budget, the upcoming months will be a testing ground for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to hold the party, and prevent economy from worsening. This will also be a decider for the conservative party to save its reputation for the 2025 elections.
What are the campaign promises?
Tax cuts
Sunak during his campaign has always stood against immediate tax cuts, since he saw it as a trigger to inflation and hike in government borrowing costs. Cutting down inflation and lowering incomes tax remains the top priority of Sunak’s tax agenda. Apart from this increasing of corporate tax and national insurance which were scheduled to be scrapped off in Truss’s mini-budget U-turn are yet to be confirmed.
Energy
The members of the Conservative party are known for bouncing off climate goals, this can be seen from the vote taken on fracking which was backed by Sunak for extracting shale gas. With the energy subsidy package of GBP 10 billion proposed by Truss not giving a positive effect, and energy crisis being at the rim, a major question remains if Sunak will replace or reverse. His promises to remove “VAT on domestic energy bills,” and UK’s promise to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will remain in the climate change cards of Sunak.
Brexit
Since the 2016 referendum, the trade tussle has been real between the EU, the UK and the Northern Ireland. UK’s new proposal submitted during Boris Johnson administration to alter significant provisions to the agreed Northern Ireland Protocol threatens the existing political stability of the Northern Ireland, and trade relations with the EU. Sunak also falls in the same line being a staunch supporter of Brexit, maintains a stance favourable to the UK, while aims to avoid a trade with the EU. Overall, the debate over the Northern Ireland Protocol is expected to narrow further.
What are the challenges ahead?
First, a quick save for the Tories. The conservatives may have closed the gap to calling an early general election but the major question remains if the unity will be struck under Sunak’s leadership. With differences over economic, healthcare, energy, and immigration policies, if the party members split over the existing cracks UK will go through its worst economic instability induced from the internal political imbalance.
Second, UK’s equation with the EU is expected to fade further. With the previous Prime Ministers economic strategies to boost UK’s economy resulting in heightening of inflation and pound value, Sunak is tasked to bring back the economy from the spin. With Sunak’s strong stance on Brexit, the relations with the EU are set to go down and divert into other countries. Earlier Sunak was criticised by Truss for engaging in closer trade with China, therefore possible alternatives could be increased trade with China and the US to boost reset UK’s economy from downfall.
Third, decline in defence aid Ukraine. UK’s stance for Ukraine is not observed to change but with economic crisis at center the defence spending can expected to take a setback. Initially Truss had promised for an increase in defence budget by two to three per cent which was subject to change as per the GDP, with domestic agenda on priority for Rishi Sunak, Ukraine cannot expect more defence aid in the coming days from the UK.
References
“Rishi Sunak: World leaders welcome next UK prime minister,” BBC, 25 October 2022
“Rishi Sunak's first speech as UK prime minister,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
“Rishi Sunak: What might the new Tory leader do as PM?,” BBC, 24 October 2022
Mark Landler, “Rishi Sunak Will Become the U.K.’s Next Prime Minister on Tuesday,” The New York Times, 24 October 2022
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee
DENMARK
Border control with Germany extended in Denmark
On 24 October, Denmark extended the border control at their border with Germany. Denmark’s Justice Minister Mattias Tesfaye confirmed the extension through a note to the parliamentary Justice Committee. All border controls should be temporary, including the one introduced in 2016 in Demark. However, it was extended for eight years, the latest starting from 12 November. The security and migration situations in Denmark were said to be the reason for the extension of border control by the government. The border petrol creates long queues for crossing Denmark to Germany by road. The left-leaning parties, the Red-Green Alliance, Socialist People’s Party and Social Liberals, opposed the extension of border control. They responded that it would be a waste of resources and men that could be used elsewhere. (“Denmark confirms latest extension of checks at German border,” THE LOCAL dk, 24 October 2022)
ESTONIA
Estonia’s proposed representative to the European Court of Auditors under scrutiny
On 24 October, former chairman of the EKRE party in Estonia, Mart Helme said that he will submit a complaint to the EU, against the government's plan to designate former Finance Minister Keit Pentus-Rosimannus as the representative for the European Court of Auditors. Helme alleges that Pentus-Rosimannus broke the application process. Helme, who heads the Special Anti-corruption Committee filed a draft of the complaint with the committee and said that he will send the letter in a personal capacity if the committee did not agree to his stance. On the same issue, former Defence Minister and committee member, Kalle Laanet said that no decision should be taken before the prosecutor's office released its decision by the end of this week. (Anne Raiste, “EKRE planning EU complaint over Estonia's ECA application process,” ERR News, 24 October 2022)
FINLAND
The EU’s nature restoration proposal faces differences in opinion in Finland’s government
On 23 October, Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced that Finland would vote against the EU’s nature restoration regulation. She welcomes the restoration regulations but said, “...it has to be done in places where it’s functional and sensible.” The proposal was to restore 20 per cent of land and sea across the EU member states to their natural form by 2030. The coalition was divided over the discussion to reject the nature restoration regulation. The government will decide whats good for Finland and evaluate the best option. The National Coalition said that the vote for not supporting the proposal would reflect poorly on Finland’s forest policy and national intetersts. (Aleksi Teivainen, “Marin: Finland could vote against EU’s restoration regulation,” Helsinki Times, 24 October 2022)
Reception system to increase its capacity to accommodate Ukrainian refugees
On 24 October, Finland’s Immigration Service decided to set up new reception centres due to the increase in Ukrainian refugees. New reception centres are built to provide accommodation to refugees fleeing from Ukraine to Finland. Finland has 86 existing ones with secondary branches and service points and eight reception units for minors. Approximately 50 per cent live in private accommodation, and 10 per cent in municipalities provided accommodation for temporary protection. The number of applicants for the reception centres has been increasing as the war in Ukraine prolongs. The Finnish Immigration Service looks after directing, planning and supervising the workings of the reception system. (“Finnish Immigration Service to establish new reception centres on 24 October,” Helsinki Times, 24 October 2022)
HUNGARY
Hungary unblocks Sweden and Finland’s accession process
On 22 October, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Chief of Staff, Gergely Gulyas, announced during the government’s regular press brief that Hungary would stop delaying Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. Turkey and Hungary are the only countries that have been blocking the Nordic countries’ accession process. He said the accession process would be completed by mid-December. The NATO accession process will be discussed in the autumn session of the Hungarian parliament. Even after the Socialist suggested scheduling a vote in the Parliament about Finland and Sweden, Orban rejected it due to being forced by the opposition party on the crucial matter. He also added that Hungary is trying to reach NATO’s pre-requisite level of two per cent of GDP spent on the annual defence. (Daniel Deme, “Hungary to Ratify NATO’s Northern Expansion,” Hungary today, 24 October 2022)
ICELAND
Women get time off after 1515 hours following the Women’s Day Off demonstration
On 24 October, the women in Iceland are allowed to be relieved from work at 1515 hours. The decision was made following the Women’s Day Off demonstration, which started on 24 October 1975. 90 per cent of women workers walked out of their workplaces in 1975, and the rally continued six times, the latest being in 2018. Alongside encouraging women to leave the workplace early, the government is also trying to close the wage gap between genders by 2045. Arborg municipality in Southern Iceland achieved equal pay between 1000 male and female employees. The government is trying to give women more rights and freedom. (Margret Adamsdottir, “Women encouraged to walk out from work at 15:15,” ruv.is, 24 October 2022; Erik Pomrenke, “No Gender Pay Gap in Árborg,” Iceland Review, 24 October 2022)
LATVIA
Three-party coalition to form the government in Latvia
On 24 October, Latvia's President Egils Levits indicated that a three-party coalition would form the government after the recent Saeima elections. The elections were held on 01 October, and now, three parties, New Unity, National Alliance, and United List will be forming the government. The Progressive Party, which was to be the last party in Latvia's four-party government model, will now have to come to an agreement with New Unity to proceed with collaboration talks. Even though the President did not clarify the exact date, he said that the parties will sign a memorandum of cooperation and soon decide on the division of duties. (“New Latvian coalition to consist of three parties,” Eng.LSM.lv, 24 October 2022)
NORWAY
The Socialist Left Party becomes a budget partner to the government
On 24 October, Norway’s government found itself without majority support to pass the budget through the parliament (Storting). The ruling Labour (AP) and Centre (SP) parties are looking at the Socialist Left Party (SV) as their budget partner. The three parties agreed on providing NOK 1.2 billion as an electricity support scheme for businesses and the most vulnerable in society. The agreement also included support in housing benefits for NOK 194 million, food banks for NOK two million and students for NOK 210 million. Additional housing benefits and electricity support will be provided to citizens till April 2023. The supportive budget is presented due to the rising energy costs and high cost of living. (Robin-Ivan Capar, “Norwegian government secures parliamentary majority for new crisis support measures,” THE LOCAL no, 24 October 2022
SLOVENIA
Presidential election results in an inconclusive result
On 23 October, the presidential election was held in Slovenia, resulting in no clear winner. In a pre-election poll, the right-wing candidate Anze Logar was leading with 30 per cent, followed by the centrist independent Natasa Pirc Musar with 20 per cent and Social Democrat Milan Brglez with 17 per cent. The victory of former Foreign Minister Logar will upset the current government, as they had tried hard to remove Janez Jansa in April 2022. Logar plans to get out of the populist image and wants to become a unifier. The inconclusive results will result in a runoff vote that will be held in three weeks, having the top two candidates. The runoff voting will thin Logar’s chance as Musar will have the advantage of having a merged constituency of hers and Brglez. The outgoing President Borut Pahor will be unable to return to the race as he has completed his two terms in Office. (“No clear winner predicted as Slovenians elect new president,” euronews, 23 October 2022)
REGIONAL
Defence Minister of Georgia and Lithuania discuss on strategic cooperation
On 24 October, Georgia’s Defence minister Juansher Burchuladze and Lithuania’s Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas met to discuss the challenges to security in the Black Sea region. Burchuladze appreciated Lithuania’s constant support to Georgia. With the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Georgia informed Anušauskas about the reforms initiated to comply more with NATO and EU standards. On a bilateral level, improving education, cybersecurity, and installing better strategic communication were discussed. Additionally, in terms of increasing military cooperation, mandatory military service, rehabilitation of wounded soldiers, exchanges between national defence academies, and joint exercises were also discussed as potential areas of cooperation. Following the meeting, the minister released a joint communique. (“Georgian, Lithuanian defence chiefs review cooperation, security challenges in Black Sea region,” Agenda.ge, 24 October 2022)
Albania and Israel’s Prime Ministers meet to discuss Iranian threat
On 23rd October, Arab News reported that Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama arrived in Israel for an official visit. He met Israel's caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, and the two discussed bilateral ties and the ways to overcome challenges faced by both the countries. Special focus was given to the threat both the country faces from Iran. Rama is also scheduled to meet the head of Israel's National Cyber Directorate, which is the state's apex cybersecurity authority. Albania's increased attention to cyber security issues comes after two cyber attacks on government websites and systems, which have been traced to an Iranian source. (“In Israel, Albanian PM to meet cyber chief after Iran hack,” Arab News, 23 October 2022)
Hungary and Turkey discuss strengthening their relations
On 24 October, Hungary’s Defence Minister, Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky, met with Turkey’s Defence Minister, Hulusi Akar, in Ankara to discuss the continued partnership between the countries regarding trade, culture and defence. They want to promote peace in Ukraine, and Szalay-Bobrovniczky appreciated Turkey’s efforts in mediating the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey was noted to have provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Hungary in assisting people fleeing the war. The two countries agreed to cooperate in arms deals. Hungary is aiming to replace its old military equipment with new NATO-compatible technology with the help of Turkey. Turkey had supplied military weapons and is manufacturing ten Gidran combat vehicles for Hungary. (“Defence Minister: Turkey 'important strategic partner',” The Budapest Times, 24 October 2022)
Azerbaijan's President visits Georgia
On 24 October, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev completed his visit to Georgia following his discussion with Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili on strengthening their relations and strategic partnership. The two exchanged dialogue on politics, cooperation in trade and economy. At a press conference in Mtskheta, Garibashvili and Aliyev talked about facilitating friendly cooperation between South Caucasus countries. Aliyev was shown around Georgia by the Prime Minister, introducing its culture, history and art. Garibashvili was present till the farewell of Aliyev in Tiblisi, from which he departed. (“Azerbaijani president ends visit to Georgia after discussing “special relations”,” agenda.ge, 24 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 241, 242, and 243
By Madhura S Mahesh and Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 24 October, Ukraine’s Air Force Command reported that they had shot down three Russian Ka-52 helicopters in Beryslav, Kherson. From around 13:00 to 13:30, they shot down two of the helicopters and the third was shot down around 21:30. This cotter offensive was carried out by the Odesa and Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades of the "South" Air Command of the Air Force. The Air force Command also informed that these helicopters might be fitted with Ukrainian engines after Moto Sich JSC President was arrested on account of abetting Russia.
On the same day, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported that they had freed over 90 settlements from Russian control in Kherson. This comes as Russia announced evacuations in the region specifically around the left bank of the Dnipro River. The spokesperson of Ukraine’s Army General Staff Vladislav Seleznov said that theta re suspecting that Russian Forces are preparing for a large-scale conflict in the region, especially near the Kakhovka dam. This comes amid the reports of Russia allegedly resorting to blackmailing Ukraine by mining the Kakhovka HPP and threatening to detonate it.
On 24 October, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov announced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be acquiring 11 PUMA-LE unmanned aircraft systems. This purchase worth UAH 540 million is a part of the Army of Drones project by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ministry of Digital Transformation. The PUMA-LE drones are a part of 18 countries’ armed forces and are equipped with thermal imaging systems, and antennas with an operational range of 60 kilometres, 6.5 hours of flight capability and can fly as low as 3 km from the ground.
On 24 October, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry released a statement asking the International Community to ask Russia to cease artificial and politically motivated delays in the Black Sea grain corridor. According to the Ministry, Russian officials are conducting a prolonged inspection of vessels either arriving or leaving Ukraine which is causing a slowdown of grain shipment to the Global South. The statement highlights that more than 165 vessels are stuck in the Bosporus Strait. It also added that the export of around three million tonnes of grain has been delayed and that more than 10 million people all over the globe are not receiving food on time due to Russia’s delay. The Ministry suspects that these delays are politically motivated to renew the deal to benefit Russia more and that these actions are undermining global food security, especially that of the Global South.
On 24 October, in an interview with “We - Ukraine” Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko reported that the majority of Ukraine’s wind and solar energy have been decommissioned. This is because 90 per cent of wind and around 50 per cent of solar energy plants are located South of the country which has suffered from repeated Russian aggression. This renewable energy contributed to about 10-11 per cent of Ukraine’s total energy consumption. Galushchenko also said that Ukraine’s goal of increasing this share to 25 per cent will be revised once the total damage by Russia is counted.
On 23 October, the Head of Kyiv Regional Military Administration Oleksiy Kuleba reported that 147 locals were illegally deported from the region when Russia occupied it. Kuleba notes that they would have been deported to either Belarus or Russia. Out of the total 147 people, 43 are said to be in captivity and the rest 89 status is unknown.
On 23 October, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine has enough gas to get through winter. He reported that their gas storage has about 14.2 billion cubic meters of gas which will help the country survive winter sustainably. This comes amid repeated Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Shmyhal said that Russia has not been able to break the energy system and that workers are working 24/7 to ensure the damage is repaired at the earliest.
On 23 October, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba responded to Russia’s claims that Ukraine is planning to use “dirty bombs”. Kuleba dismissed these claims in a tweet and added that such claims are dangerous. He stated that Ukraine is a signatory of the NPT and that they do not possess any ‘dirty bombs’ nor are they acquiring any. Kuleba said that such accusations often reflect the future plans of Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also dismissed these claims and reiterated that this is a reflection of Russia’s plans and a sign that Moscow is ready to raise the stakes of the war. Zelenskyy called for a tougher international response against a nuclear threat by Russia.
On 22 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia launched 36 rockets at Ukraine at night. This attack targeted key energy infrastructure leaving the regions without power. Zelenskyy reported that the majority of the rockets were shot down and that emergency services were dispatched to the affected regions to get the power back on and restore the energy supply.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 24 October, Russia’s Defence Ministry alleged that Ukraine is planning to deploy a “dirty bomb” which along with conventional explosives is used to spread radioactive material and frame Russia in the process. According to the Ministry, this move would serve three purposes- first, portray Moscow as a “nuclear terrorist;” second, initiate a refugee exodus to the EU; and third intimidate the residents. On the same issue, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia wrote a letter to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, saying that the UN should attempt to “prevent this heinous crime.” Nebenzia mentioned that if Ukraine uses the bomb, it will be viewed as an “act of nuclear terrorism.” He has also called for a Security Council meeting on the issue. However, on the same day, the Foreign Ministers of France, the UK and the US released a joint statement saying that they do not accept Russia’s transparently false allegations and the NATO Chief, Jens Stoltenberg dismissed the narrative as “absurd.”
On the same day, the chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov said that Ukraine had been making continuous efforts to usurp control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). He alleged that since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has shelled the plant 39 times and that now, the troops were trying to get across the Kakhovka reservoir to take over the plant. On the same issue, the Defence Ministry revealed the countries that would be worst affected in case of an accident at ZNPP. Publishing a pollution map for such an eventuality, it said that 38.4 thousand square kilometers of area in Belarus, Poland, Romania, Germany and Slovakia will be the worst hit.
On 24 October, the Coordination Council, tasked with outlining the federal and regional efforts for the war in Ukraine held its first meeting. The Council is being headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and the Chief of the Government Staff, Dmitry Grigorenko, and Industry and Trade Minister, Denis Manturov will serve as deputies. While Grigorenko will look into regulatory and financial issues, Manturov will coordinate the delivery of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. The Council will also look into the security of critical infrastructure like energy supply, transport, telecoms and communication facilities. Mishustin said that the Council plans to report the activities and developments to the President once a week. On 25 October, President Vladimir Putin will convene a special Coordination Council meeting to discuss the needs of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.
On 23 October, Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that a Russian Su-30 two-seat multirole fighter jet crashed into a two-story house in Irkutsk. The ministry confirmed that the crash came during a test flight and the two pilots commandeering the aircraft died in the clash. However, no civilian casualty was reported. Russia’s Investigative Committee has initiated a criminal case on the issue, as this is the second time an aircraft has crashed into residential buildings in recent times. On 17 October, a Su-34 aircraft crashed in Yeysk, killing 14 people and injuring 42. According to the Department of Defence, an engine fire caused that crash during take-off, while the aircraft was on a training flight.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 24 October, the UK’s Ministry of Defence released an update on the situation in Ukraine with regard to the repeated drone attacks being carried out by Russia. The update stated that Russia was continuing to use Iranian-made Shahed-137 drones. The drones reportedly are slow, fly at low altitudes and are noisy which makes them easy to take down the report added that Ukraine has been successful in taking 85 per cent of the drones launched by Russia. The Ministry suspects that Russia is using these drones to penetrate Ukraine’s air defence which is getting better by the day. They also suspect that it is being used instead of Russia’s indigenous long-range precision weapon which is becoming scarce.
On 24 October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pressed the need for the development of a Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Marshall Plan was a post-World War II initiative by the US to increase investments in West Germany. The two leaders called the reconstruction of Ukraine a “generational task” which should start as soon as possible. This call comes before the start of the German-Ukraine business forum in Berlin where discussions are said to take place regarding rebuilding Ukraine.
On the same day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal opened the German-Ukraine business forum. Speaking at the forum, Scholz backed the membership bid of Ukraine to the EU and added that this would open doors for more investors and the use of already-in-place EU infrastructure to rebuild Ukraine faster. He also emphasised the importance of transparency, rule of law and a tougher fight against corruption on the Ukraine side. Scholz also promised continued military aid and air defence equipment for helping Ukraine counter Russia. Scholz also highlighted that the rebuilding efforts should surpass the agenda of repairing energy infrastructure to make sure that they are efficient and that they are adaptable for a climate transition.
On 24 October, Western and NATO countries denounced Russia’s claim that Ukraine is alledgldy planning to use ‘dirty bombs’. This was announced through a joint statement by France, the UK and the US where their Foreign Ministers reject the claims and that they will continue their support to Ukriane. These claims were made by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on 23 OCtober when he contacted his Western counterparts. The ‘dirty bomb’ is reportdly a bomb that has been laced with nuclear material. The statement said that these calims were just a reason that Russia will use to justify an escalation in the conflict. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also rejected the allegations and added that Russia itself should not use such bombs as a pretext for escallations. The US State Department also added that irrespective of the use of a nuclear weapon or a ‘dirty bomb’ by Russia will have consequences.
On 24 October, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said that they will give up to EUR 3 billion over 2022-2023 to support Ukraine’s businesses and economy to sustain. Mentioning the bank’s resilience to help Ukraine in its defence, they added that the primary focus would be to help the “real economy”, which includes maintaining energy and food security, reconstruction of infrastructure, and to revitalise energy security. With an investment of up to EUR 500 million in liquidity support, the EBRD is the largest institutional investor in Ukraine and adds its focus to triple its aid to Ukraine by the end of 2023.
On 24 October, Norwegian police placed two Russians into custody on the account of taking photos of restricted military installations. This incident occurred in Bjerkvik in northern Norway which houses Norway’s Armed Forces military facility and barracks. The pair, a man and woman were arrested on Saturday when a car with a Russian number plate was allegedly spotted taking pictures near the base. This adds to the rising cases of Russians being arrested for taking photos or flying drones illegally.
On 24 October, Euractiv reported on a major crisis that holds Poland back from transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Poland’s continuous reliance on coal and the global system’s current economic recession could throw the country’s energy transition off course and would lead to a nearly EUR 135 billion costly endeavour by 2030. Amid the EU’s push for ambitious climate action for 2030, Poland’s energy sector is dominated by fossil fuels, which tripled in expense and dependency since the invasion of Ukraine. Soaring coal and gas prices would mean an increasing reliance on coal, which leads to an array of issues for Poland. Renewable energy being Poland’s partial solution to its energy transition, the country is also setting up nuclear alternatives, with its first plant not scheduled until the mid-2030s. With a share of 23 per cent of renewables set to reach gross final energy consumption by 2030, Poland needs to ramp up its power generation amid increased demand.
On 24 October, the new right-wing government led by Giorgia Meloni reaffirmed its support for Ukraine. This move comes amid concerns that Italy will support Russia as two of the coalition partners Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini are known Russian sympathisers. Italy’s new Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani in a tweet on 22 October said that in his call with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba he reiterated Italy’s support for Ukraine’s defence against the Russian invasion.
On 24 October, The Hill reported that US Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be meeting Ukrainian officials during a summit in Croatia later this week. Pelosi will be a part of bilateral meetings with top-level officials from Ukraine and Croatia at the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform. Pelosi will be speaking at the summit regarding “America’s unbreakable commitment to Ukraine.” Reaffirming that the US would stand with Ukraine in their fight for “freedom”, Pelosi said that the US would “hold Russia accountable”.
On 23 October, over 7,000 protestors gathered in the capital of Moldova for their sixth consecutive day of protests against the high gas prices, especially of those supplied by Russia. These protests are backed by the opposition parties of Moldova led by Ilan Shor and are calling for the resignation of President Maia Sandu. This comes at a time when Moldova is facing difficulties in procuring gas from Russia through Gazprom. Previously the Moldovan government reported uncertainty regarding the volume of gas that will be supplied by Gazprom as the gas giant reduced supplies by 30 per cent and pressed Moldova to pay its outstanding debt of USD 709 million.
On 22 October, Spain announced that 14 fighter jets will be sent to Bulgaria and Romania to increase NATO’s eastern line of defence. With six Eurofighter jets and 130 soldiers to Bulgaria, Spain means to send these jets by mid-November and early December to train local forces. Spain will be deploying eight F18M fighter jets and 130 air force personnel to Romania between December and March 2023. These are a part of NATO’s reaction and deterrence strategy and will help Spain to form an “aerial shield” by increasing its air force missions in the area.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 24 October, the World Bank announced that an additional USD 500 million would be sent to Ukraine to meet its urgent spending needs. The World Bank’s main lending arm, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development authorized the loan. World Bank Group President David Malpass released a statement on the issue and said: “The Russian invasion continues to cause massive destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure – including water, sanitation, and electricity networks… The new portion of financing disbursed today will be used to maintain essential government services.” With this additional package, the total emergency financing sent to Ukraine is USD 13 billion, of which USD 11.4 billion has been fully disbursed.
On the same day, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General, Rafael Grossi confirmed that to respond to Russia’s claims of Ukraine making “dirty bombs”, security inspectors of IAEA would visit two locations in Ukraine. Russia had specified two institutes in Ukraine, which were allegedly making the bombs and Grossi assured that these sites were under IAEA’s constant supervision and inspections. In an official statement, Grossi said, “The purpose of the safeguards visits is to detect any possible undeclared nuclear activities and material.
On 24 October, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian spoke about the claims of Iran supplying drones to Russia and said that if proved, Iran would “not remain indifferent.” He said that Iran is “strongly opposed to the war” and denied the veracity of the claims. The statement comes after the EU, the UK and the US introduced sanctions against three military commanders and a defence company of Iran, in connection to the reported supply.
On 21 October, UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine, Denise Brown briefed the UNSC on the current situation in Ukraine. They warned against the use of nonconventional weapons like nuclear weapons in the battlefield and highlighted the risks of the military activity around the ZNPP. Di Carlo also criticized Russia’s recent strategy of targeting civilian infrastructure like the targeting of power stations and water lines. She also urged the UN to ramp up their efforts to extend the Black Sea Grain Deal beyond November to ensure that the world’s access to Russian and Ukrainian food grains. Brown spoke about the severe humanitarian impact of Russia’s continuing offensive and mentioned that other than the displacement of people, Ukrainians are also having to deal with extremely traumatic and psychologically devastating conditions.
References
“Third Russian helicopter downed in Ukraine in one day,” ukrinform, 24 October 2022“AFU will get 11 PUMA-LE "unmanned aircraft systems,” ukrinform, 24 October 2022
“Russians illegally deported 147 locals during occupation of Kyiv region,” ukrinform, 23 October 2022
“PM Shmyhal: Ukrainian underground storages have enough gas for heating season,” ukrinform, 23 October 2022
“Kuleba on 'dirty bomb' claims: Russia often accuses others of what it plans itself,” ukrinform, 23 October 2022
“Russia brings death and degradation, Ukraine is always about restoration - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 23 October 2022
“Ukraine calls on world to demand Russia stop artificial delays in inspections of grain ships,” ukrinform, 24 October 2022
“Ukraine has lost 90% of its wind energy,” The Odessa Journal, 24 October 2022
“Russia’s Kherson “Evacuation”: Drawing Down and Readying for Last-Ditch Battle,” Kyiv Post, 24 October 2022
“The aggressor continues to terrorize our country. At night, the enemy launched a massive attack,” Telegram, 22 October 2022
“Russia calls up UNSC over ‘Ukraine’s dirty bomb’,” RT, 25 October 2022
“Russia Claims Ukraine in 'Final Stage' of Creating 'Dirty Bomb,” The Moscow Times, 25 October 2022
“Putin to convene special council meeting to discuss Army’s needs during special operation,” TASS, 25 October 2022
“Russian Defense Ministry says attempts made to seize Zaporozhye NPP by Ukrainian forces,” TASS, 24 October 2022
“A map of pollution of Europe in the event of an accident at the ZNPP has been published,” LENTA.RU, 24 October 2022
“Russian Su-30 fighter jet fell on a residential building in Irkutsk,” LENTA.RU, 23 October 2022
“Ukraine updates: West rejects 'dirty bomb' claims,” Deutsche Welle, 24 October 2022
“Convicted criminal sponsors new Moldova anti-government protest,” EURACTIV, 24 October 2022
“Norway detains 2 Russians for taking photos of army base,” AP News, 24 October 2022
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 24 October 2022,” Twitter, 24 October
“German and EU leaders call for Ukraine 'Marshall Plan',” Deutsche Welle, 24 October 2022
“Spain to Bolster NATO’s Eastern Flank With 14 Jets,” The Defense Post, 24 October 2022
“BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says rebuilding Ukraine will be a “task for a generation” that no country, donor or international institution can manage alone,” THE WEEK, 24 October 2022
“Energy crisis sets Poland on rocky transition out of fossil fuels,” EURACTIV, 24 October 2022
“EBRD commits up to €3 billion to Ukraine,” ebrd.com, 24 October 2022
“Pelosi to meet Ukrainian officials in Croatia,” THE HILL, 24 October 2022
“Italy’s New Right-Wing Government Seeks to Affirm Support for Ukraine,” The New York Times, 24 October 2022
“World Bank disburses additional $500 mln to Ukraine,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
“Romanian defense minister resigns, pressured after Ukraine comment,” Reuters, 24 October 2022
“Safeguards Inspectors to Visit Two Nuclear Locations in Ukraine, IAEA’s Grossi Says After Receiving Request from Ukraine,” iaea.org, 24 October 2022
“IAEA preparing to inspect two sites in Ukraine over 'dirty bomb' claims,” Reuters, 25 October 2022
“Foreign Minister: ‘Iran Not Indifferent’ If Drones Used In Ukraine,” Iran International, 25 October 2022
“Ukraine war: Path of further escalation ‘must be reversed’, Security Council hears,” news.un.org, 21 October 2022