NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : The Guardian
War in Ukraine: Day 246
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 27 October, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov thanked Spain’s Defence Minister Margarita Robles for providing military aid through the Ministry’s Telegram post. Both Defence Ministers discuss powering up Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. Ukraine received Hawk systems, an air defence system from Spain.
On 27 October, the Ukraine Army’s Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov, said that the Russians had launched ten suicidal Shahed-136 drones from Belarus. Russians had also deployed its troops to airfields in Belarus and were seen conducting active operations on the training grounds. He added that Ukraine is monitoring Russian activities in Belarus and will deal with any threats that Russia poses, irrespective of the direction it comes from.
On 26 October, around 70,000 people and 19,000 vehicles crossed Ukraine’s border with the EU and Moldova during the day. 37,000 people exited Ukraine, 23,000 crossed over to Poland and the rest to other EU states and Moldova. 33,000 people had travelled to Ukraine. 68 trucks containing humanitarian aid were provided to the people who have come to the country. The influx of traffic was heavy on the western border of Ukraine.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 26 October, Russia complained to the UNGA First Committee about the possibility of the US using its commercial satellites to help Ukraine in the war. Foreign Ministry’s non-proliferation and arms control department, Russia’s Deputy Director, Konstantin Vorontsov, said at a meeting of the UNGA First Committee that using civilian infrastructure facilities in space for the war would endanger the stability of civil space activities and various socioeconomic processes that decides people’s wellbeing on earth.
On 27 October, Lenta.ru reported that Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko remarks on Europe. He warned that it was heading towards an energy suicide at the fifteenth Verona Eurasian Economic Forum. He said, “Effectively, we are witnessing the economic, military and ideological enslavement of Europe by the EU. Meekly and voluntarily, the EU has traded its energy freedom, the basis for economic development, which has been based upon energy cooperation with Russia, unaffected by any political conjuncture, for decades - for dependency on the US,” and that the EU had lost its energy freedom in exchange for economic growth. According to Grushko, the EU had shifted its energy imports from Russia to the US.
On 27 October, Russia’s Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, said at a briefing that Russia would fight back if the EU decides to confiscate its frozen assets. She compared the EU’s action to “thieving” and that it will harm the bloc’s reputation. Russia announced it would take action against the EU if its government reserves were seized.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 26 October, European leaders finalized plans to place a cap on Russian oil prices despite the World Bank’s warning that the plan will need the effective participation of growing market economies. The price cap would cut Russia’s major funding source for the war while oil production would continue to avoid an energy price hike. The price cap will be decided to be in the USD 60 per barrel range. The price cap will go into effect from 05 December and will be undertaken by Europe and the US.
On 27 October, the UK’s Defence Ministry’s Intelligence update on the war in Ukraine stated that Moscow’s Mayor Sergey Sobyanin would head the development of security measures in Russian territories following the decree by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to introduce a new regimen of security alert levels. Russia plans to involve regional governments in its national security system to organize its society. The close relations with regional officials will also partially deflect public criticism away from the Russian regime. A similar strategy was used to escape the blame for the COVID-19 pandemic by Putin. However, he will find it difficult to hide from the criticisms of the impacts of the special military operation in Ukraine.
On 27 October, Germany requested Switzerland to approve its re-export of Swiss-made ammunition to Ukraine. Germany’s Defence Ministry had written a letter requesting the right to re-export the ammunition. The Swiss government replied that it “...will respond to this letter in a timely manner.” In April 2022, Switzerland denied the same request on the grounds that it would violate its neutral stance in international politics.
On 27 October, the US pledged it would provide a USD 275 million package of weapons and other aid to Ukraine to increase its capabilities to chase out the occupying Russian forces. The focus of the package is to restock the ammunition for weapons available in Ukraine. Details of the aid are yet to be published.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 27 October, RT reported on India’s plans to continue importing Russian wheat to process it into flour and other materials like pasta and re-exporting it to the neighbouring countries. India sees it as a way to increase its exports. India had previously stopped purchasing wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Australia to support its domestic producers. However, India plans to resume the imports to re-export it by establishing a joint venture with Russia amid the ongoing war.
On 27 October, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a statement that the reduced export of Russian fossil fuel would pave the way to a global green energy transition. Russian energy trade is predicted by IEA to fall from 20 per cent in 2021 to 13 per cent in 2030. IEA also projects through its history of modelling that the demand for fossilfuel will hit the peak by 2025 and will start to stagnate from 2030. The war in Ukraine has changed the global energy policy, and the world is now looking at cleaner and more affordable sources. IEA said that global clean energy investment will increase more than USD two trillion a year by 2030 as the international community will be accustomed to Russia-Europe energy fallout.
References
“Ukraine needs victory over Russia, in particular in the field of energy - address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi,” president.gov.ua, 26 October 2022
“Tougher power supply caps in parts of Ukraine amid continued Russian strikes on energy infrastructure,” Ukrinform, 27 October 2022
“Ukraine to receive another military aid package from Spain - Reznikov,” Ukrinform, 27 October 2022
“Russia launches kamikaze drones from Belarus 10 times over past week - Ukraine’s General Staff,” Ukrinform, 27 October 2022
“The situation at checkpoints on the western border,” dpsu.gov.ua, 27 October 2022
“Russia announced the "energy suicide" of Europe,” Lenta.ru, 27 October 2022
“US satellites may be legitimate targets if used in conflict in Ukraine — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 27 October 2022)
“Moscow to retaliate if Brussels confiscates frozen assets — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 27 October 2022
Andrea Shalal and David Lawder, “Western officials finalizing plans for Russia oil-price cap,” Reuters, 27 October 2022
The UK Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 27 October 2022,” Twitter, 27 October 2022
“Switzerland to examine new German request to allow weapon re-exports to Ukraine,” Reuters, 27 October 2022
Lolita C Baldor and Matthew Lee, “US to send Ukraine additional $275 million in military aid,” AP News, 27 October 2022
Noah Browning, “Energy crisis sparked by Ukraine war to speed up green transition -IEA,” Reuters, 27 October 2022
“India mulls trade in Russian grain – media,” RT, 27 October 2022
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee
ESTONIA
Social Affairs Ministry reports a surge in food aid beneficiaries
On 26 October, Estonia’s Social Affairs Ministry reported that there has been a surge in the number of food aid recipients in the second quarter of the year. The Ministry recorded a 65 per cent increase which is approximately 14,000 more beneficiaries. The Estonian Food Bank added that in August and September 35,328 food parcels were distributed by them. A volunteer at the Food Bank Liisa Rebane-Mäe told that more parcels have been distributed in the first nine months of 2022 when compared to all of 2021. The recipients are decided based on applications for and beneficiaries of subsistence allowance and government benefits. The food aid package includes dry goods, tea, honey, tinned meat, muesli bars, raisins, nuts and biscuits. (“A huge increase in food aid recipients in Estonia,” Estonian world, 26 October 2022)
Reinsalu proposes to reinstate internal Schengen border controls
On 27 October, Estonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) expressed the need for the reinstation of border controls at Estonia’s internal Schengen borders. Reinsalu added: "The Foreign Ministry's unequivocal view is that we need stronger controls and greater clarity." According to him with the influx of over 100,000 Ukrainian citizens into the country and many of them treating Estonia as a transit country, it is imperative to know their status. At the same time, the Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets (SDE) disagreed stating that it will not only drive-up spending to EUR 7.3 million a month, but has the potential to weaken Estonia’s guard of its eastern border. Estonian Law enforcement agencies have backed Läänemets saying that “..there's no need to start carefully examining Latvian plates at the expense of internal security.” Läänemets believes that there should be talks with other European nations to accept war refugees if the war continues for another year and said that “I'm relying here on robust action from the Foreign Ministry." (“Estonian FM wants to reinstate border controls at internal Schengen border,” news.err.ee, 27 October 2022)
KOSOVO
Refuses to extend deadline for vehicles to have Kosovo license plates
On 27 October, the leader of the Serbian List party, Goran Rakic said that the Kosovo Serbs in the norther part of Kosovo will again block the roads, if authorities in Pristina start confiscating cars without Kosovo license plates. As per decision taken by Kosovo’s government in July, after 31 October, vehicles with Serbian identity documents and license plates would not be valid in Kosovo territory. On this issue, Prime Minister Albin Kurti said: "We already delayed the deadline.... The last date is October 31 when all Kosovo citizens who have old automobile plates, which are a legacy of the Milosevic era, will be able to convert them into legitimate ones.” Rakic said that the protest by the Kosovo Serbs will “use all democratic and peaceful means" to resist the move. (“Kosovo Serbs Warn They Will Again Block Roads If License-Plate Deal Not Extended,” rferl.org, 28 October 2022)
LITHUANIA
Signs four year defence contract with Saab
On 27 October, the Lithuania Defence Material Agency signed a four-year contract for the RBS 70 surface-to-air missile with the Saab, a Swedish aerospace and defence company. Through this contract, the Defence Ministry can order the missiles till 2026. The first order under the contract worth SEK 350 million is expected to delivery between 2023-2024. The order also includes extra missiles for Saab’s RBS 70 surface-based defence system which has been a part of Lithuania’s military since 2004. The new purchase will help expedite Lithuania’s short-range air defence capabilities in the short term. (“RBS 70 Missiles for Lithuania,” Estonian Free Press, 27 October 2022)
MALTA
Reviews the validity and success of the “golden passport” scheme
On 27 October, EURACTIV reported on Malta’s golden passport scheme by which wealthy foreigners can buy citizenship in exchange of an approximate investment of around EUR one million. A Maltese passport automatically grants the people access to live and work in any EU country, and thus has been strongly criticized by the EU. The European Commission says that the programme violates EU law, and has contributed to a rise in financial scandals like fraud, money laundering and embezzlement. Moreover, the recently published state budget suggests that the scheme will bring EUR 40 million less in 2023 than the last cycle. Malta had profited EUR 61 million from this scheme in 2021, but 2022 estimates indicate a drop to EUR 30 million. While the government has no intention of scrapping the scheme, the validity of the scheme will be examined by the EU Court of Justice, where it has been accused of infringement by the Commission. (Alice Taylor, “Malta’s cash-for-passport scheme is on the rocks, government ploughs ahead,” EURACTIV, 27 October 2022)
SWEDEN
Energy subsidy is planned to be introduced for Southern Sweden
On 27 October, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Energy and Business Minister Ebba Busch announced an energy subsidy package for those hit by high prices. The energy subsidy aims to lessen the burden on all households and businesses, which consumes less energy. The subsidy is aimed at the most affected citizens, especially in Southern Sweden. Sweden’s General Director of Svenska Kaftnat (the Swedish National Grid), Lotta Medelius-Bredhe, announced that the subsidy plan would provide SWK 55 billion to five million energy customers in Southern Sweden. The subsidy was promised to begin from 01 November by Kristersson before the election. Kristersson did not mention the beginning of the promised subsidy after the election. (“Sweden’s new government announces 55bn kronor power price subsidy,” THE LOCAL se, 27 October 2022)
REGIONAL
Estonia urges Rishi Sunak to raise defence spending
On 27 October, Estonia’s Foreign Miniter Urmas Reinsalu urged the UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to raise defence spending to match two per cent of the UK’s GDP. As a fellow NATO member, Reinsalu said that it was important for all NATO members to increase their defence spending. . Currently, the UK has a defence spending of a little more than two per cent of its GDP. Estonia is said to have spent around 2.3 per cent of its GDP on defence expenditure in 2022 and the Estonian government hopes to increase this to three per cent by 2024. According to Reinsalu: "To defend our values - the rules based order - we need also to invest to the weapons," When asked about the presence of the UK-led battle group and its planned withdrawal of 900 soldiers, Reinsalu believes that the withdrawal must not happen and instead it should be increased. The UK Ministry of Defence responded saying: "Our commitment to Nato and Estonia in response to Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine is absolute." (“Rishi Sunak urged to raise defence spending by Estonia,” BBC, 27 October 2022)
Latvian parliament approves amendments for annuling mandates of MEPs
On 27 October, the Latvian parliament passed amendments to the law that outlines conditions for annulling the mandate of elected members of the European Parliament (MEP) from Latvia. The new amendment says that if the MEP is found guilty of a Criminal Act they will lose their contest for seat. Previously the law stated that it would be annulled if “found guilty of a crime of a specific category” with the category being a severe crime, especially in Latvia and if their criminal record is not erased. The new amendment extends this to any person who has served in USSR, this includes Latvian SSR security, intelligence or counter-intelligence service (with exceptions), members of the PSKP (GCP), the Latvian SSR Workers’ International Front, the Joint Council of Labour Collectives, the War and Labour Veterans Organisation, the Latvian Public Rescue Committee or its regional committees after 13 January 1991. (“Latvian MEPs found guilty of criminal acts to lose their mandate,” Baltic News Network, 27 October 2022)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to discuss Greece-Turkey relations with Mitsotakis
On 27 October, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis marking the beginning of an official trip. The primary issues that will be discussed are the tank swap deal, the energy crisis and Greek-Turkish tension. In terms of the tank swap deal signed, Greece expects to receive 40 Soviet-era tanks of which the first six have been sent by Germany. These tanks are scheduled later for Ukraine. Scholz and Mitsotakis will aim to enhance their bilateral economic relations, so far, in the first eight months of 2022, German exports to Greece has risen by 16.3 per cent than the same period last month. (Tasos Kokkinidis, “Greece-Germany Deepen Ties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz Visit,” Greek Reporter, 27 October 2022)
Hungary and Georgia’s Prime Ministers meet to enhance bilateral relations
On 27 October, the Prime Ministers of Hungary and Georgia, Victor Orban and Irakli Garibashvili met and signed a declaration on strategic partnership and strengthening bilateral cooperation. Garibashvili thanked Orban for Hungary’s vocal support to Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration and its territorial integrity. He also thanked Orban for Hungary’s contribution to the EU monitoring missions in areas adjacent to Russia occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Also at the meeting, the two leaders discussed the issue of electricity and securing enough supply of the same. Orban said that he would be interested in receiving electricity from Azerbaijan through Romania and Georgia, and that high capacity transmission liners would be used for them. He also mentioned that if this electricity comes in by next year, Hungary will be able to stop buying natural gas for electricity. (“Georgian PM thanks Hungarian counterpart for “vocal support” for Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration, territorial integrity,” agenda.ge, 27 October 2022; “Hungarian PM says country interested in receiving electricity from Azerbaijan through Georgia, Romania,” agenda.ge, 27 October 2022; “Georgian, Hungarian PMs sign strategic partnership declaration,”agenda.ge, 27 October 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Taiwan delegations visiting Latvia and Lithuania
On 27 October, the South China Morning Post reported on the Taiwanese delegation’s visit to Latvia and Lithuania. Reportedly the delegation visited Latvia on 24 and 25 October and is in Lithuania for the rest of the week. The delegation led by Taiwan’s Deputy Minister of the National Science and Technology Council Lin Minn-tsong is meeting the education and technology officials from Latvia and Lithuania. The three countries are looking to improve relations in the technology sector. Taiwan produces around 60 per cent of the world’s semiconductors and this meeting will be instrumental in solving the supply chain crisis of chips in Europe. China has not yet reacted to this visit but the assistant professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University, Taipei Chen Yi-fan is sure that China will not be quiet. Latvia and Lithuania’s relations with China over the past year have soured as the former two countries are developing closer relations with Taiwan. Chen Yi-fan said that this visit shows that “Taiwan is trying to expand its international influence in terms of technology by helping small or developing countries build foundations.” (Ralph Jennings “Taiwan delegation looks to build tech ties with Latvia, Lithuania amid China tensions,” South China Morning Post, 27 October 2022)
Israel and Turkey restore defence ties after a decade
On 27 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar met with Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz in Ankara where the two nations restored their security ties after a decade. In the meeting, both Erdogan and Gantz expressed their commitment to “promote stability, prosperity and security” in Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. After the meeting between the two Defence Ministers, at a joint press conference, Gantz said that this visit “is a clear signal for positive developments ahead.” The relations between the two countries fell apart when Turkey continued its support for Hamas. At the same time, the two countries’ security agencies were collaborating to ensure the safety of Israelis and Jews in and travelling to Turkey from “Iranian Plots”. Gantz said that “We are thankful to President Erdogan, Minister Akar and the security agencies involved in this crucial, life-saving cooperation.” Gantz added that this cooperation shows the potential collaboration between the two countries when they renew their ties. ​​(“Gantz restores security ties with Turkey during visit,” The Jerusalem Post, 27 October 2022)
US Sanctions Moldovan individuals for influencing political systems with Russia
On 26 October, the Biden administration imposed sanctions on over 20 Moldovan and Russian individuals and organizations. They have been accused of helping Russia’s efforts to manipulate the political system in Moldova. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken released a statement on the same and singled out two Moldovan oligarchs, Vladimir Plahotniuc and Ilan Shor who allegedly have tried to capture and corrupt Moldova’s judiciary and law enforcement institutions. Blinken referred to the two men as “fugitive oligarchs” who were prominent in Moldova’s politics will 2014 till they were accused to be involved in a money laundering scheme which stole USD 1 billion from Moldovan banks. The sanctions will freeze their assets in the US and also deny them or their families US visas. (Michael Crowley, “New U.S. sanctions target Russian efforts to manipulate the politics in Moldova, a neighbor of Ukraine,” The New York Times, 26 October 2022)