NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Kremlin.ru
EM Comment
By Sai Pranav
EU member states stand against Energy Charter Treaty: Three reasons
On 21 October, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of France from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) since the charter did not align with the Paris agreement and its climate goal. Previously Russia withdrew in 2009, and Italy in 2016. Spain, Poland and Netherlands have submitted a proposal to withdraw from the treaty. Germany and Belgium are next in line to withdraw from the treaty following France’s exit. Out of the 53 signatories, only European states are trying to pull out of the ECT, while the African and Central Asian countries and Japan are yet to indicate their stance.
What is Energy Charter Treaty?
The ECT is a treaty signed in 1994 in Lisbon introduced the capitalist market model in the former Soviet Union countries. It came into effect in 1998 aimed to strengthen the cross-border cooperation between the international countries on energy. The primary objective was to exploit the fossil fuel-rich former Soviet countries. The treaty permits energy investors to sue a country’s government if it introduces policies that might affect their future revenue. Any policies against fossil fuels are taken to court by the investors fearing loss of their investment. Fossil fuel investors levy pressure on the national governments to continue with the usage of non-renewable sources, thus slowing down the transition to green energy for these countries. The EU countries pointing are attempting to withdraw from the treaty. However, the UK and Switzerland are keen on staying in the treaty. They have not responded to the exit of the EU countries.
Three reasons
First, incompatibility with the European Green Deal. The European States have a goal of being climate-neutral by 2050. However, the treaty does not allow the countries to transit into green energy and renewable resources. Fossil fuel investors have been placing lawsuits against countries which recognize policies that look to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. The investors blame the government policies for their future losses. The litigations hinder the EU states from trying to reduce their carbon-emission levels. The usage of fossil fuels will only increase the level of greenhouse gases emission into the atmosphere, thereby causing more climate change issues. The companies have caused the renewable energy transition in Europe to slow down and are responsible for the increasing carbon footprints in Europe. The treaty risks climate goals and offers more protection to the fossil fuel industry.
Second, fear over lawsuits and the sunset clause. Fossil fuel firms have subjected the countries that have implemented policies that affect their future income to litigation in which they are to pay huge compensations. Thereby creating a concern amongst the countries over their net-zero goals to become subject to multimillion lawsuits. In 2021, a German energy company RWE filed a lawsuit against the Netherlands government for EUR 1.4 billion in damages due to the Dutch passing a law to phase-out coal. The treaty has a sunset clause which makes a country vulnerable to lawsuits for 20 years even if they had exited from the treaty. The EU proposed a modernization law which made the countries vulnerable to lawsuits for ten years if they had received it during their stay at the treaty and one year if they received it after they had withdrawn. An example of the sunset clause is the UK oil firm Rockhopper Exploration receiving EUR 210 million in compensation from Italy’s government for banning offshore drilling. Rockhopper had said it planned to invest EUR 33 million in an oilfield project. Italy had to pay compensation six years after its exit from the treaty.
Third, the EU greenhouse gas emission rate and climate change. The restriction caused by fossil fuel investors allows the EU countries and those part of the treaty to use non-renewable resources, ultimately leading to higher carbon emission rates and global warming along with climate change. According to the European Commission’s JRC Science for Policy 2022 report, the EU member states had their total fossil CO2 emission increase by 6.5 per cent in 2021 compared to 2020. Countries trying to exit from the treaty or have already withdrawn have a high CO2 emission rate in 2021. The figures in 2021 suggest that Germany has the largest CO2 emission, with 24 per cent in the EU, followed by Poland at 11.6 per cent, Italy at 11.5 per cent, France at 10.9 per cent and Spain at 8.4 per cent. The figures show that the fossil fuel usage by the governments that are being pressured by the investors due to the treaty has also contributed to the emission rate of the countries. Carbon emission has also contributed to climate change. The impact of climate change was visible in 2022 across Europe. Europe faced one of the worst droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and flash floods across the continent, especially the southern and western parts. Spain, France, and Germany suffered severe droughts, heatwaves and wildfires. Poland also suffered drought and heat waves. Europe saw the highest temperature recorded and monster wildfires. These has raised concerns amongst the scientific community to have caused due to increased use of fossil fuels and drastic impact on climate change. With the treaty has indirectly and directly being responsible for climate change impact in Europe, resulting in the EU member states to break away from the treaty to achieve their net-zero and climate-neutral goal by 2050.
War in Ukraine: Day 250
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 31 October, Ukraine’s Naval Forces of the Armed Forces reported on elimination of Russian infantry fighting vehicles and an ammunition cache. Ukraine’s Air Force reported on the launch of 44 cruise missiles launched from the Volgosonsk area and the northern part of the Caspian Sea by Russia on key infrastructure.
On the same day, Kharkiv’s Regional Military Administration, Head Oleg Synehubov highlighted how Russia is fortifying its position along the 315 kilometres-shared border by increasing construction underway to build more defence structures.
On 31 October, the Ukraine's Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov reported that 12-grain ships had left Ukraine ports. Kubrakov said that the 40 ships were examined by 10 inspection teams from Turkey and the UN to continue the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The vessels which left Ukraine contained 40,000 tonnes of gain to Ethiopia. Kubrakov added that four additional vessels inspected in Istanbul have departed to Ukrainian ports. The ships were inspected by delegations of Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 31 October, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "In conditions when Russia speaks about impossibility of guaranteeing safe shipping in indicated areas, such deal certainly can hardly be implemented. It acquires a different nature, much more risky, dangerous and non-guaranteed." He along with the Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev reiterated Russia’s commitment to helping poor countries. Patrushev said that Russia is ready to compensate for the shortage that rises due to it pulling out of the Grain Deal at their expense. Peskov reiterated the issue of how under the deal the poor countries received only a minor share of the exports and that the majority of it went to Europe.
On 31 October, Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on the achievements of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. Konashenkov reported that in Kherson the forces destroyed a German Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery gun, five combat armored vehicles, and seven motor vehicles and killed 70 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries. In the Donetsk region where Russian forces are engaged in active operations, 60 Ukrainian personnel, a tank, two combat armored vehicles and two motor vehicles were eliminated.
Konashenkov reported that the Russian Armed Forces attacked the targets using air-and-sea- based long-range precision weapons and said that all of the intended targets were hit. He also reported that four Ukrainian army ammunition depots were destroyed in Kherson and DPR and eight army command posts were destroyed in the Zaporozhye and Nikolayev Region. Konashenkov reported that the air defence forces had stopped four HIMARS and Olkha rockets and seven HARM anti-radar missiles in the Kherson Region. Lastly, he added that the Forces had shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in LPR, DPR, Kherson and Kharkov regions.
On 31 October, Russia’s Chairman of the Arctic Council’s Senior Officials Committee Nikolay Korchunov dismissed the claims of US Department of State Counselor Derek Chollet regarding the operation of the Arctic Council. Korchunov said that the Council can operate without Russia groundless as the Council only makes decisions with the consensus of all the member states. He also said that while most projects under the Council are implemented by two-three members, for the larger sustainable development of the Arctic regions all the eight members are required to effectively make the right decisions. Korchunov reiterated that sustainable development of the region is the main goal of the Russian presidency in the Arctic Council.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 31 October, the UK Ministry in its intelligence update reportes that since mid-October Russia has deployed to the front lines several thousand newly mobilized reservists and the majority of them were ill-equipped to fight. The regular Russian combat units are equipped with 5.45-millimetre AK-74M or AK-12 rifles compared to the 7.62-millimetre AKM. The Ministry of Defence suspects that Russia will have to deploy two types of small arms ammunition to the front lines due to the new integration of reservists. The Ministry said that it will likely complicate Russia’s strained logistics system.
On 31 October, AP News reported on the increasing inflation and slowing economy in Europe. It highlights how inflation rates hit a new high in 19 countries whose currency is the euro. Eurostat reported that annual inflation for 2022 was 10.7 per cent which is a revision from the 9.9 per cent projection in September. This is being attributed to the unnatural gas and electricity prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The hike in gas prices is a result of the Ukraine conflict where Russia slowed down the supply of gas to Europe. This forced the European nations to buy from the US and Qatar where liquefied gas is more expensive. These high prices have also affected the prices of industrial goods like steel and fertiliser making them more expensive or unprofitable to produce. Consumers are spending more on essential necessities like food and fuel and utility bills. Eurostat reported that food, alcohol and tobacco prices have risen by 13.1 per cent and that energy prices increased 41.9 per cent compared to 2021. The highest inflation rates according to Eurostat have been seen in Latvia (21.8 per cent), Lithuania (22 per cent) and Estonia (22.4 per cent). The article looked at how post-pandemic growth projected at 0.8 per cent slipped to 0.2 per cent in July-September 2022.
On 31 October, Norway announced that it will be increasing the Norwegian Armed Forces’ readiness. This was announced by Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. The level of readiness will be shifting from ‘normal situation’ phase zero to phase one. Gahr Støre added that this change will be in line with the phase in NATO’s joint planning framework. The shift is scheduled to happen on 01 November under the guidance of the Norwegian Chief of Defense. The NRK reported that Norway is taking this step-in light of the Nord Stream gas pipeline attacks, the Ukraine war and a supposed increase in Russian intelligence in the country.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 31 October, the Energy Ministers of Saudi Arabia and UAE backed the OPEC oil cuts at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that these cuts were not done to support anyone or to take any sides and that: “We don’t owe it to anybody but us. It was done for us, by us, for our future, and we need to commit ourselves to that.” UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei reiterated bin Salman’s stance and added that the UAE and other OPEC+ members are keen on keeping up the oil supply to meet the requirements of the world but claimed that they are not the only oil producers in the world. al-Mazrouei said that the OPEC members are “only a phone call away if the requirements are there” to increase production but said that this might not be anytime soon.
References
“Marines destroy enemy IFV, ammunition cache, 25 invaders,” Ukrinform, 31 October 2022
“Ukrainian troops fighting for liberation of 24 settlements in Kharkiv region,” Ukrinform, 31 October 2022
“Russian terrorists again massively attacked Ukraine. Their target is not military facilities, but civilian critical infrastructure.,” Telegram, 31 October 2022
“Twelve grain ships leave Ukrainian ports,” Ukrinform, 31 October 2022
““Massive attack” by Russia on Ukraine Energy Facilities,” Kyiv post, 31 October 2022
“Grain deal can hardly be implemented without Russia — Kremlin,” Tass, 31 October 2022
“Russia ready to help the poorest countries after grain deal suspension — Kremlin,” Tass, 31 October 2022
“Kremlin trusts Defense Ministry Britain was behind attack on Black Sea Fleet,” Tass, 31 October 2022
“Russian forces wipe out German PzH 2000 artillery system in Ukraine operation,” Tass, 31 October 2022
“Diplomat castigates ‘groundless’ US claims that Arctic Council can operate without Russia,” Tass, 31 October 2022
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 October 2022,” Twitter, 31 October 2022
“Inflation hits new record in Europe, slowing economy,” AP News, 31 October 2022
“BREAKING: Norway increases Armed Forces’ level of readiness,” euroweekly, 31 October 2022
“Turkey to Continue Efforts to Ease Global Food Crisis, Erdogan Says,” Tasnim News Agency, 31 October 2022
“Saudi, UAE back OPEC cuts as US envoy warns of ‘uncertainty’,” AP News, 31 October 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, Madhura S Mhesh, and Sandeep Ganesh
NORWAY
Lula’s victory resumes Norway’s assistance in Amazon rainforest conservation
On 31 October, THE LOCAL no reported on Norway’s Environment Minister Espen Barth Eide announcement on resumption of collaboration of Norway with Brazil’s government to save the Amazon rainforest from deforestation. Norway would again send the Amazon protection subsidies that were paused due to the far-right Brazillian leader, Jair Bolsonaro, becoming the country’s President in 2019. In the recent election, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won, making Norway reopen its friendly relations with Brazil. Bolsonaro encouraged deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, increasing it by 70 per cent. Norway has been a major supporter of the conservation of the Amazon forest. The reelected Lula promised to fight against Brazil's climate crisis and deforestation, making Norway resume its aid to the South American country. (“Norway to resume aid halted to Brazil over deforestation,” THE LOCAL no, 31 October 2022)
ITALY
Meloni replaces Draghi’s reforms after forming the government
On 31 October, Italy’s new Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, changed the reforms that the previous government of Mario Draghi introduced. She called Draghi, and Giuseppe Conte had taken an ideological approach with no scientific evidence. She scrapped the rule that health workers should have mandatory vaccines and reinstated them to their job. Her opposition, the centre-left, criticized her for rewarding anti-vaxxers as her first reform. She delayed Draghi’s justice front reform, stating that the measure would paralyze Italy’s judicial system. She said that the faster judicial proceeding reform did not have the resources or the instrument to make them work, resulting in the collapse of Italy’s judicial system. Her opposition criticized her for delaying the process, saying that the reform would determine Italy obtaining the EU’s post-pandemic fund. However, Italy’s union of judges and prosecutors welcomed the postponement stating that they needed time to reorganize court proceedings. (Angelo Amante and Emilio Parodi, “Italy delays EU-required justice reform, scraps vaccine mandate for medics,” Reuters, 31 October 2021)
THE UK
Suella Braverman defends the UK’s refugee treatment
On 01 November, the UK’s Home Secretary Suella Braverman defended the country’s treatment of asylum seekers at the refugee centre in Southern England. She said that it was an “invasion” of refugees at the overcrowded refugee centres. Refugees who crossed the English Channel were placed in Manston, a former airfield in the country’s southeast, following an incident involving gasoline bomb attacks, in which the perpetrator committed suicide later. The Manston refugee centre was noted to be overcrowded with 3,000 people, while it can house only half of the present residents. Braverman’s own conservative MPs criticize her actions for managing the refugees in horrible conditions. The UK faced an increase in refugees through the English Channel, with around 40,000 people having made the journey to the island country in 2022. (“UK home secretary complains of migrant 'invasion',” Deutsche Welle, 01 November 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
50 countries sign a statement against human rights violations in China
On 31 October, Finland joined 49 other countries in signing a statement that condemned China for violating human rights in the Xinjiang region in the discussion of the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly. China was said to have conducted human rights violations by torturing, raping and forcing to give up the language and religion of people from Uighurs and other minority Muslim groups. China was also accused of having alleged camps for the minorities in the Xijiang region. China has rejected the accusation by the 50 countries stating that it was the West’s political tool against it. The discussion on the Xinjiang report in the UN has not progressed yet as China has disagreed to discuss the content of the report. (“Finland and 49 other countries condemn China's human rights violations in Xinjiang in a joint statement,” yle.fi, 01 November 2022)
North Macedonia and Bulgaria launches railway construction project
On 29 October, The construction was launched by the Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Galab Donev and Republic of North Macedonia Prime Minister Dimitar Kovachevski. The EU financing the construction of this railway project, will spend half a billion euros to connect Kumanovo and Belyakovce in North Macedonia with the Bulgarian border. This would boost the trading partnership and the trade exchange is expected to reach EUR one billion by 2023. (“The Construction of a Railway Section between North Macedonia and Bulgaria has been Launched”, Novinite.com, 30 October 2022.)
Estonia and Latvia to build a giant wind farm to boost energy production
On 28 October, Estonia’s Sorve peninsula area is getting geared up for this hybrid offshore wind farm project, "Elwind." The total capacity of this project will be 700MW-1GW and is expected to provide about 3TWh of energy per year. Improving energy security and lowering prices, would also help Estonia and Latvia from reducing the usage of fossil fuels for energy. This grand project will be operational by 2030. (“Latvia, Estonia choose location for giant wind farm”, Centraleuropeantimes(CET), 31 October 2022.)