NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Sasu Makinen./Lehtikuva via AP
War in Ukraine: Day 268
By Sai Pranav and Sandeep Ganesh
War on the Ground
On 18 November, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, spoke at the government meeting discussing financial aid to Ukraine. In his speech, he said that the European Commission’s Executive Vice-President, Valdis Dombrovskis, had announced that the EU has committed to providing EUR 2.5 billion in November and 500 million in December as financial aid to Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv. The US, Canada and the EU have pledged financial aid to Ukraine next year. Ukraine has also requested USD 4.5 billion in grants from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and International Development Association for its recovery from the war.
On 18 November, in an interview, Ukraine’s Head of the State Emergency Service (SES), Serhiy Kurk, said that Ukraine had increased its demining in the retaken Kherson and Mykolaiv region. More than 8000 square kilometres were demined, most belonging to the Kherson region. The pyrotechnic units of the SES worked with military-civilian administrations to remove 30 per cent of mines from the de-occupied Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. The SES has procured life support systems and provisions for the citizens in the regions and has created humanitarian hubs where aid distribution takes place in the Kherson region.
On 18 November, Ukraine’s Deputy Head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, announced the start of “Points of Invincibility” initiative to operation in the centre of retaken Kherson city. The initiative implemented by the President’s Office and the SES provides internet, extension cords for charging phones, power banks, and heating. Two tents were deployed for the people to access the service, as Kherson does not have an electricity supply. Tables, chairs, sunbeds for children and the elderly, water, snacks, tea, coffee and biscuits were also available inside the tents. Generators for heating and electricity, water, food and cellular network were provided in the points of invincibility. Tymoshenko said that the points of invincibility will be open all the time except for curfews and will be accessible to other parts of the de-occupied Kherson region soon.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 18 November, RT reported that Russia’s Defence Ministry had claimed that it had destroyed a missile manufacturing facility and other key targets in Ukraine. Long-range precision weapons were used to strike Ukraine’s military control system, military-industrial complex and associated fuel and energy facilities. The strike damaged an ammo depot of western weapons and disrupted the Ukrainian troop’s logistics. The air strikes on energy infrastructure have rendered Ukrainian gas firms like Naftogaz unable to operate and resulted in blackouts.
On 16 November, Russia’s spokesperson, Vladimir Dzhabarov, warned about attending the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Warsaw from 24 to 26 November for Russian officials being denied visas to Poland. In response, Poland said that denying Russian officials visas would breach its solidarity with Ukraine.
On 18 November, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, stated: “We demand that international organisations condemn and thoroughly investigate this shocking crime. No atrocity committed by Ukrainian military units will remain unpunished. All those guilty and their accomplices will be identified and punished accordingly. Nobody will escape retribution.” She urged international communities to condemn Ukraine for ruthlessly shooting detained prisoners of war and for their cruel treatment. A video showing Ukrainian soldiers torturing Russian prisoners is being circulated, showing the true nature of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis violating the 1949 Geneva Convention, According to Zakharova.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 18 November, the Swedish security service was working intensely on the investigation regarding the detonation at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. This investigation showed that the pipelines have been subject to gross sabotage. These crime scene investigations were carried out in the Baltic Sea, and the extensive damage caused by the detonation of these pipelines has been thoroughly documented. Several foreign items have been seized, and the explosive residue was identified on a few seized and analysed foreign items. The investigation is being conducted by the Swedish Security Service and is headed by a National Security Unit prosecutor. Our Service is being assisted in this case by several agencies including, among others, the Swedish Coast Guard, the Swedish Armed Forces and the Swedish police Authority.
On 18 November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will not support the EU aid plan to Ukraine, with billions in budget assistance next year, blocking a major aid package the EU unveiled last week. At a conference in Budapest, Orban said while Hungary condemns Russia’s aggression and supports the Ukrainian people, he is not willing to put Ukraine’s interests before those of his country. The aid plan of EUR 18 billion to Ukraine next year in regular payments to help keep energy and health care facilities running as well as to fund salaries and pension schemes. Orban recommended that the EU’s 27 members determine how much they are willing to provide to Ukraine and distribute the sum in a proportional and fair way among themselves without jointly our loans to make the payments. The commission intends to borrow the money on capital markets using the combined weight of the 27 countries to secure more favourable terms.
On 18 November, The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine endorsed an order to amend amendments to the agreement between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the Republic of Poland. Raising concessional loans of EUR 160 million for investment projects in Ukraine, in particular, the loan amount increased from EUR 60 million to EUR 160 million. The deadline was extended from December 31, 2022, to December 31, 2024. The companies that are investing in Ukraine are Ukravtodor, the State Customs Service and the Administration of the State Border Guard service.
On 18 November, Deutsche Welle reported that Russia’s commercial airline industry has been facing an impending collapse. The Russian airlines use commercial aircraft that the West supplied. The international sanctions on Russia’s aviation sectors made foreign airlines and manufacturers cut ties with it. Boeing and Airbus, major aircraft manufacturers stopped supplying aircraft and spare parts to Russia. Experts suspect that Russia has been using existing parts, cannibalism of planes and loopholes around the sanctions to maintain its aviation industry. However, unlike Iran, which had older aircraft models, Russia has modern ones requiring regular updates and advanced semiconductors. According to experts, sanctions have slowly worked on Russian aviation technology, and they predict they will collapse within two weeks.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 18 November, India’s coal-fired power output grown rapidly than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscoring the challenges the world's third largest greenhouse gas emitter in weaning its economy off carbon. The global use of coal including power generation, has grown since the Ukraine war in late February sent prices of other fossil fuels soring, derailing efforts to transition to cleaner fuels.
On 17 November, the UN watchdog board again urges Russia to end actions at Ukraine's nuclear plants. The UN nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation board of Governors on 17 November, passed its third resolution since the outbreak of the Ukraine war calling on Russia to end all actions at Ukrainian nuclear facilities, diplomats as per the vote. Of the 35 countries 24 countries voted in favour, two counties Russia and China voted against, seven countries Kenya, Namibia, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Vietnam abstained and two countries were absent. Canada and Finland called on Russia to immediately withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.
References
“Speech of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal at the Government meeting,” kmu.gov.ua, 18 November 2022
“30% of the territory of Ukraine is mined. In terms of scale, it is like two territories of the state of Austria, - Serhii Kruk,” dsns.gov.ua, 18 November 2022
“"Points of Invincibility" opened in Kherson, where citizens can charge their phones and keep warm,” president.gov.ua, 18 November 2022
“Ukrainian missile-production facility destroyed – Russian military,” RT, 18 November 2022
“Russian delegation denied visas,” RT, 18 November 2022
“Moscow calls for worldwide denunciation of Russian POW execution by Ukrainian troops — MFA,” TASS, 19 November 2022
“Confirmed sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines,” Serkerhet, 18 November 2022
“Hungary will not support EU aid plan to Ukraine, Orban says,” Apnews, 18 November 2022
“Poland raises concessional loan to EUR 160 million for investment projects in Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 18 November 2022
Killian Bayer Riga, “Sanctions: Russia's commercial airlines face a slow death,” Deutsche Welle, 18 November 2022
“Analysis: India power binges on coal, outpaces Asia,” Reuters, 18 November 2022
“UN nuclear watchdog board again urges Russia to end actions at Ukrainian plants,” Reuters, 18 November 2022
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Madhura S Mahesh
CZECH REPUBLIC
Demand for brown coal rises
On 18 November, AP News reported that the Czech Republic is seeing a rise in demand for brown coal. Compared to 2021, in the first nine months of 2022, the demand for coal rose by 35 per cent due to the rising energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. In Ostrava, part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin, coal factories have piles of coal ready for purchase as it is now the cheapest source of fuel to power homes during winter. Adding to this increase in demand is the decision of the Czech government to completely halt mining around Ostrava in order to safeguard energy supplies amid increasing demand for energy supply. This rise in demand for coal in the Czech Republic is affecting its climate goals and increasing pollution in the northeastern region of the Czech Republic. (“High energy prices lead to coal revival in Czech Republic,” AP News, 18 November 2022)
FINLAND
Survey by Foreign Ministry finds 51 per cent of Russians show positive attitude towards Finland
On 17 November, Finland’s Foreign Ministry released its survey result on Russian impression about Finland. The 2022 survey resulted indicated a positive attitude amongst 51 per cent adult Russian on Finland, while 22 per cent were observed to have an negative attitude. Comparing with the 2021, the per cent has reduced by 17 per cent for the positive attitude category and increase in the negative attitude by 17 per cent. Few reasons behind the positive attitude is Finland seen as a place for “high standard of living, freedom and democracy.” Its nature, culture, arts, tourism and shopping have added to the share. Whereas the increase in negative attitude was due to Finland’s decision to join the NATO, fear of sanction threatening their relations and limited travel opportunities due to COVID-19. (“Regular Foreign Ministry survey: more than half of Russians positive towards Finland,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 17 November 2022)
IMF projects a grim view on Finland’s economy
On 17 November, Finland’s Ministry of Finance published IMF’s review on its economic where the IMF projected the deteriorating economic outlook and increasing fiscal pressures for Finland. The reason behind the economic pressure is mainly due to improving security measures and steps taken by the government to protect households from inflation. It recommended the reversal of fiscal impulse through energy support measures and structural reforms to reflect in long-term economic growth. In a statement IMF suggests: “The tightening of global financial conditions will put pressure on Finland’s large and interconnected financial system with high exposure to household indebtedness, which calls for further strengthening banks’ liquidity buffers, improving the macro-prudential toolkit, and—when circumstances allow—reinstating capital buffers.” (“IMF presented its review of the Finnish economy,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 17 November 2022; “Finland: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2022 Article IV Mission, suomenpankki.fi, 17 November 2022)
Finland approves resolution to renew its counter terrorism strategy
On 17 November, Finland’s Ministry of the Interior adopted a resolution on the National Counter-Terrorism Strategy for 2022–2025. Although there has not been a significant new provision, the strategy is viewed important due to the changing security scenario. The aim of the Strategy is enforcing the existing cooperation model and bring new approaches. According to the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service’s assessment, Finland stands at the “Second level, or ‘elevated’, on the four-tier scale,” which remains unchanged since 2017. The Strategy outlines Finland’s counter terrorism activities, where it strives cooperation across global and the EU. It involves “prevention of the violent radicalisation,” committed to NATO’s frame work in counter terrorism, and extremism. (“Government resolution guides Finland’s counter-terrorism activities,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 17 November 2022)
LATVIA
Latvia celebrates 104 years of Independence
On 18 November, Latvia celebrated 104 since the proclamation of independence on 18 November 1918. The day was celebrated with various festivities across the country starting with an ecumenical service in the Riga Cathedral which was followed by a flower-laying ceremony at the Freedom Monument. A military parade also took place which included the National Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and foreign allies like Canada. The Latvian President addressed the Latvian diaspora around the world and said: "It is a day when we think about Latvia more, on [a] much deeper level... there is no other one like Latvia, no better place for us," and added: "Latvia is becoming more Latvian." (“Latvia marks 104 years since the proclamation of independence,” 18 November 2022)
MONTENEGRO
Protesters gather calling for an early election
On 17 November, protesters hit the streets of Podgorica calling for early elections and the withdrawal of a law that restricted presidential powers. The protests were backed by the Ima nas (We are numerous) movement which is supported by President Milo Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies. The protestors also advocated for the reconstitution of Montenegro’s constitutional court which is not functioning as MPs are not able to come to a consensus. Djukanovic supporters rally in Montenegro calling for early election,” EURACTIV, 18 November 2022)
The UK
UK Met police arrests 1,700 to reduce the criminal activities
On 17 November, UK’s Metropolitan Police reported on arresting 1,700 suspects involved in criminal activities, drug dealing and sex offences in past six weeks. The move comes after new Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley reported the drug gangs to be one of the main focus of the Met police as part of its bring down “high-risk and high-impact offenders.” On the same lines, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak expressed his wish to target the criminals and jail more offenders to make streets safe for women. He added: “We should charge more people and reduce crime and have them in jail.” (Andrew Woodcock, “Sunak says he wants more people in jail to make streets safer for women,” independent.co.uk, 18 November 2022; Laura Parnaby, “Almost 1,700 suspects, including drug dealers, arrested over six weeks by Met,” independent.co.uk, 18 November 2022)
REGIONAL
COP27 delayed; EU collective effort to bring the signatories under common finance goals
On 18 November, Frankfurter Allgemeine reported on the delay in concluding the COP27 due to extension in the negotiation. The Egyptian Presidency which offered a final declaration draft of 10 pages was cut to eight pages with agreement from 200 signatory states to abide to 1.5 degree target. Differences seem to continue over increasing of national reduction contribution and phasing out from coal. Another challenge to the final declaration is all developmental banks aligning their finance to achieve the goals set in 2015 Paris agreement. EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans reached to China and G-77 group to take part in the funding roadmap, while the West seemed to be resistant to challenges in directing the money to climate change solutions. According to Timmermans: "If our steps forward are not met with concessions, we will fail." (Christian Geinitz, “Timmermans said. "If our steps forward are not met with concessions, we will fail," Frankfurter Allgemeine, 18 October 2022)
Estonian-Latvian defence forces vehicles to be delivered in 2023
On 19 November, ERR reported Estonia and Latvia’s joint procurement of vehicles for Estonian defence forces will start arriving in 2023. The two countries had signed a 10-year procurement deal earlier this year worth EUR 693 million which will equip the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF), Estonian Defence League (EDL) and Police and Border Gaurd Board (PPA) with 16 different types of vehicles. While the exact number of vehicles will depend on the market price, the Center for Defence Investment (RKK) said that they will be placing the first order for four years of vehicles at the same time which will be delivered in the latter part of 2023 to Estonia. (“Joint Estonian, Latvian procured defense forces vehicles to arrive in 2023,” news.err.ee, 19 November 2022)
Negotiations begin to increase Frontex’s presence in Western Balkans
On 18 November, the European Council reported that it will be starting negotiations with Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro to increase the presence of Frontex in these countries. EU’s border agency Frontex has a limited presence in these countries and the European Council wants it to play a greater role in the Western Balkans to “assist those countries to manage migration flows, counter illegal immigration and to tackle cross border crime.” The Balkans are used by asylum seekers and migrants from Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia to enter the EU and these negotiations will assist to “detect and block irregular migration movements early on.” (“Council to negotiate increasing EU border agency’s presence in Western Balkans,” EURACTIV, 18 November 2022)