NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHIPENKOV
War in Ukraine: Day 282
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 01 December, Ukraine’s President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak reported that 50 Prisoners of War (POW) were returned by Russia. As a part of the exchange, Ukraine returned prisoners held in Olenivka, and soldiers in Mariupol and Azovstal. Yermark added that injured Russian personnel in Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions were also returned. He thanked the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POW and assured the return of all Ukrainians.
Ukraine’s General Staff and Supreme Commander-in-Chief estimated that Ukraine had lost nearly 13,000 soldiers since February. This comes after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen estimated 100,000 soldiers to have been killed, which was later deleted by the European Commission saying that it was a mistake.
On 02 December, Sumy Regional Military Administration Head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said that 76 mortar bombs and shells were launched by Russian forces at the region’s border areas. Zhyvytskyi said that the Seredyna-Buda community was hit the hardest with Russians launching a mortar strike and 22 self-propelled artillery strikes. While no casualties were reported the strikes have caused major damage to infrastructure in the areas.
On 02 December, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement regarding the threats received by Ukrainian embassies and consulates. Embassies in Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Croatia, Italy, Austria, the consulates general in Naples and Krakow, and the consulate in Brno all received packages containing animal eyes. The packages reportedly were soaked and smelled of blood. The embassy in the USA was delivered a letter containing a photocopy of an article critical of Ukraine. Additionally, the embassy in Kazakhstan received a bomb threat which was proven false and the entrance of the ambassador’s residence in the Vatican was vandalised. Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said that they believe these incidents were pre-planned as all of these incidents happened simultaneously. Kuleba added that this will not stop Ukraine’s diplomatic front. The statement went on to cite the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and has asked foreign governments for increased protection for Ukrainian diplomats abroad.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 02 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Rosatam and their efforts to help Russia advance in the field of nuclear technology on the account of Rosatam’s 15th anniversary. Putin outlined how the corporation has been a key factor in Russia’s nuclear deterrence capabilities and the development of new weapons systems and military equipment. He also praised Rosatams efforts to bring together specialised enterprises and scientific schools to increase nuclear research and development and fortify Russia’s nuclear shield and defence capabilities. Putin acknowledged Rosatams role in Russia achieving nuclear parity in a short time and praised their commitment towards increasing the nuclear capability of Russia in the defence and power sector.
On 02 December, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that President Vladimir Putin is open to dialogues and peace talks but will not accept the demand for the withdrawal of Russian forces. Peskov said that US President Joe Biden’s condition for peace talks to start is not possible and added that “Without a doubt, the special military operation continues." He added that Putin is open to talks and that Russia prefers “peaceful diplomatic means” to achieve their interests. Peskov said that the US refusal to recognise the newly annexed territories will be a point of contention for talks to start and common ground to be achieved.
On 02 December, RIA Novosti reported that Russian air defence systems will now be able to effectively detect and destroy missiles launched by Ukraine from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) because of a software update. According to a Russian military commander in the Zaporizhzhia Region, the air defence forces now have a new software update which will help them “detect, track, and destroy” HIMARS missiles.
On 02 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a telephone conversation discussed the Ukraine crisis and the Black Sea Grain deal. On the matter of Ukraine, Putin re-explained the motive behind the special military operation and he expressed how the West’s continued supply of military and training of Ukrainian soldiers was prolonging the war. Putin added that the increased military and financial supply to Ukraine is making it more difficult to negotiate with Keiv. He highlighted how targeted missile strikes were abandoned by the Russian forces but recent attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure such as the Crimean bridge have forced Russia to retaliate with targeted strikes. On the Black Sea Grain deal, Putin emphasized the need for an efficient and comprehensive plan for grain exports which would include the removal of barriers against Russia.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 01 December, EU members agreed on a USD 60 price cap per barrel on Russian seaborne oil with a price adjustment policy to keep the price at five per cent below the market price. This comes after EU members previously failed to come to an agreement on the price cap before the EU embargo on Russian crude goes into effect on 05 December. The price cap will now be tabled in the parliaments of EU member countries before it is fully implemented. This new price cap and the price adjustment mechanism are being introduced to ensure a steady supply of Russian crude after 05 December to prevent a global supply shortage.
On 02 December, the G7 nations and Australia approved the EU USD 60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. The price cap was initiated by the G7 countries to prevent a shortage of Russian oil supply to mitigate a sudden rise in the energy crisis and increased fuel inflation. In a statement, the G7 members added that they are “prepared to review and adjust the maximum price as appropriate,” and make sure middle and low- income countries are not adversely affected. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that this will restrict the “...primary source of revenue for his illegal war in Ukraine while simultaneously preserving the stability of global energy supplies.”
On 02 December, UK Defence Intelligence reported on increasing logistical threat for Russia upon the withdrawal from the West Bank of the Dnipro River. The withdrawal has turned in favour of Ukraine to target down Russia’s logistic nodes and communication lines, forcing Russians to transfer their supplies and labour intensive leading to “further south and east.”
On 02 December, Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban stressed his stance on objecting the EU plan to give EUR 18 billion to Ukraine in 2023. He added: “We are not in favor of this because we do not want the European Union to become a community of indebted states instead of a community of cooperating member states.” Instead Orban suggested the EU to allocate funds to Ukraine from its budget through bilateral deal. The block has remained for several months, according to the EU, Hungary’s veto is seen as counter to EU’s block on funds over Hungary’s rule of law violation.
On 02 December, Finland Prime Minister Sanna Marin raised concerns over Europe’s need to strengthen the security. She stressed on building the defence capability and the European defence industry. Marin added that to ensure security for Finland it is a condition to maintain bilateral relations with Russia and be close to NATO and not a member.
On 02 December, Permanent Representative of Croatia to the OSCE delivered the Joint Statement of NATO members along with Finland and Sweden to the OSCE council. The statement outlined how the OSCE area is in a crisis due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and that NATO condemns Russia’s actions in Ukraine and fully supports Ukraine and its fight for sovereignty. It went on to highlight how these actions violate international law, the UN Charter, the principles of the Helsinki Final Act, and OSCE commitments. The statement outlined how Russia is responsible for the destruction of human life especially those of women and Children in Ukraine. It reiterated the support for the invocation of the Moscow Mechanism and ODIHR monitoring to bring into light abuses of international human rights in Ukraine. The statement expressed concerns regarding Belarus and its unwavering support for Russia and Russian military integration in the North. Finally, the statement called on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine completely and cease all military occupations in the OSCE region.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 02 December, oil futures decreased by 1.5 per cent before the OPEC+ meeting on 04 December and the EU embargo on Russian seaborne crude on 05 December. Brent crude futures decreased by USD 1.31 to USD 85.57 per barrel and the Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by USD 1.24 to USD 79.98 per barre. The market reacted with caution on 02 December over the uncertainty regarding the OPEC+ decision which could shock the market on Monday. While OPEC+ is said to retain its target of two million barrels per day, oil prices could dip further if no additional production cuts are made.
On 02 December, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine finished its work and the mission came to an end. The Commission said that it has finished its assessment on a “broader temporal, geographical, and thematic framework” and will be submitting a report in March 2023. The Commission said that the extensive damage to civilian and energy infrastructure has resulted in devastating consequences for education, children’s rights and lives. It talked bout how destroyed schools prevent physical access to schools and an online mode while initially feasible has been disrupted due to repeated attacks on civilian infrastructure. Civilian infrastructures are under the protection of international humanitarian law and the commission aims to prepare the report keeping this in mind and would take a victim-centric view for its work.
References
“Another 50 Ukraine defenders returned from Russian captivity,” Ukrinform, 01 December 2022
“President's Office says Ukrainian army lost up to 13,000 soldiers since war started,” Ukrinform, 01 December 2022
“Seventy-six Russian projectiles fired at Sumy region over past day,” Ukrinform, 02 December 2022
“Comment of Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko regarding threats to Ukraine’s embassies and consulates abroad,” mfa.gov.ua, 02 December 2022
“Video message on the occasion of the 15th anniversary of Rosatom State Corporation,” kremlin.ru, 02 December 2022
“Kremlin rejects Biden’s 'pullout' demand for peace talks,” Tass, 02 December 2022
“Kremlin rejects Biden’s 'pullout' demand for peace talks,” Tass, 02 December 2022
“Russian troops get upgrade against HIMARS – RIA,” RT, 02 December 2022
“Telephone conversation with German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz,” kremlin.ru, 02 December 2022
“EU tentatively agrees $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil,” EURACTIV, 02 December 2022
“Latest Defence Intelligence updatev,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 02 December 2022
“Orban says Hungary will stick to veto of EU-Ukraine aid plan,” AP News, 02 December 2022
“Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US,” The Guardian, 02 December 2022
“G-7 joins EU on $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil,” AP News, 02 December 2022
“#OSCEMC2022: NATO Joint Statement,” osce.usmission.gov, 02 December 2022
“Oil dips 1.5% ahead of OPEC+ meeting, EU Russian oil ban,” Reuters, 03 December 2022
“Statement at the end of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine’s visit to Kyiv - 2 December 2022,” 02 December 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
ITALY
Government optimistic on EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund
On 02 December, Italy’s government announced that it is confident in finishing the 55 targets set for the latter half of 2022 to gain EUR 19 billion from its EU post-pandemic recovery fund. Italy has already received EUR 67 billion out of EUR 200 billion from the EU fund. Some Italian Ministers warned that it would be tough to fulfil all 55 targets of reforms and deadlines. However, the government believes that it can achieve all the targets by 2022 and can submit a request to the EU for its third payment from the post-pandemic recovery fund. Italy’s government has already allocated EUR 12 billion for extra costs incurred by the construction firms working on public projects. (“Italy says will hit all 2022 targets for EU post-pandemic funds,” Reuters, 02 December 2022)
REGIONAL
Germany seeks uniform EU debt rules reform
On 02 December, following the EU Finance Ministers conference, Germany’s government leaked the information on the EU debt rules reforms. Germany was pessimistic about debt rule reforms. However, the other countries believe that there would be a change by March 2023. The European Commission proposed custom debt rules that suited individual countries. Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Linder opposed the proposal and pushed for uniform rules across the EU. The ideas that were presented in the Commission have been rejected by a few countries resulting in undecided debt rule reform. (“Germany sceptical of swift EU debt reform agreement - sources,” Reuters, 02 December 2022)
ENERGY
The Netherlands receives the JTF to achieve its climate neutrality goal
On 02 December, The European Commission provided a Just Transition Fund of EUR 623 million to the Netherlands under the Dutch Territorial Just Transition Plan to help with the green transition. The Just Transition Fund (JTF) will support the Netherlands to change from a fossil fuel-dependent economy to a climate-neutral one. The fund aims at phasing out fossil fuels from industries and transitioning to green energy such as hydrogen. The JTF will be invested in clean and green energy technologies for the chemical and steel manufacturing industries. Renewable hydrogen will be used to produce electricity for industrial purposes. The Fund also looks to establish efficient energy usage in businesses and households to achieve climate neutrality. An increase in labourers and workers is also invested through the fund. (“EU Cohesion Policy: €623 million for a just transition to climate neutrality in the Netherlands,” ec.europa.eu, 02 December 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Japan and the EU plan to create a global hydrogen market
On 02 December, the EU and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation in Tokyo to create and develop a global hydrogen market. To improve hydrogen technology, and innovate sustainable and cheap production, Japan and the EU have agreed to cooperate to establish an international hydrogen market that produces, trades, and distributes the use of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen energy. Japan and the EU have pledged to become climate neutral by 2050. According to the EU-Japan Green Alliance of 2021, the green transition and global energy security rely on the usage of hydrogen as fuel. The Alliance also focuses on Japan and the EU cooperating to establish a global green energy market. (“EU and Japan step up cooperation on hydrogen,” ec.europa.eu, 02 December 2022)
President Xi to opens Chinese markets for the EU businesses
On 01 December, China’s President, Xi Jinping, assured trade relations with the EU following his meeting with the European Council President Charles Michel. He said: “China expects the EU to ... share China's supersize market opportunities,” As the EU are growing wary of the US trade rivalry, Xi proposed for the EU’s companies to have trade relations with China and jointly oppose the use of trade and technology as a tool for politics and as a weapon. He expressed his desire for fair and transparent trade relations between the two countries. The frayed transatlantic relations were caused by US President Joe Biden introducing the Inflation Reduction Act, which subsidized energy bills for businesses. Xi welcomed the EU’s participation in trade relations with China. (Stuart Lau, “Seizing on EU tensions with US, Xi tells Europe to keep investing in China,” POLITICO, 01 December 2022)
The UK delegation visit to Taiwan angers China
On 02 December, the UK MP delegation visiting Taiwan signed a defence cooperation with it. Foreign Affairs Committee chair Alicia Kearns met with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to discuss maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The UK is aiming to establish its foreign policy towards Taiwan following Brexit. Kearns said: “We talked about the joint cyber threats that we all face from different adversaries, we discussed disinformation and of course, we discussed traditional military conflict.” The UK promised to support Taiwan if China attacked and promoted deterrence diplomacy. Taiwan already receives the UK’s help in developing and building submarines domestically. China, however, condemned the UK’s MPs' visit to Taiwan as it had violated its “One China Policy”. It said that it would retaliate if China’s interests are undermined by the UK. (“Taiwan: UK lawmakers talk defense cooperation during visit,” Deutsche Welle, 02 December 2022)