NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
War in Ukraine: Day 293
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 13 December, Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko disclosed the reconnection of the ninth 1,000-megawatt power unit of Energoatom’s nuclear power plants to the Ukrainian power grid. The restored power units in Ukraine-controlled regions provide electricity to its people and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The ZNPP consumes at least 100 megawatts of electricity from Ukraine’s power grid.
On 13 December, Ukraine received a EUR one billion loan from France’s Development Agency on subsidized conditions. One, the loan's interest rate will be 1.04 per cent per annum for 15 years from the date of the loan’s agreement. Two, the grace period for deferring loan repayment will be more than five years from the loan’s issuance. The loan will be directed to the state budget to finance immediate needs such as social and humanitarian expenditures.
On 13 December, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met IAEA’s Director General Rafael Grossi to discuss ZNPP’s demilitarization in Paris. Grossi promised that IAEA will send permanent technical missions to Ukraine to foresee all nuclear plants from Zaporizhzhia to Chornobyl. Shmyhal and Grossi expressed the importance of ZNPP’s safety and security from Russian attacks and discussed necessary steps for demilitarization.
On 13 December, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) arrested a Russian agent who had links with the Russian mercenary group, Wagner PMC (a private military company). The Russian agent who was a local resident of Odesa, was investigated thoroughly by the SBU for information leaks. Following the investigation of his phone, they found that the Russian agent had been sharing classified information, pictures and digital maps with Russia. The SBU detained him before he revealed information on Ukraine’s coastal defence units, estimated soldiers, weapons and military equipment used for the protection of Odesa’s coast.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 13 December, Lenta.ru reported that Russia’s Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov comments on Ukraine’s new realities for achieving peace. Peskov said that Ukraine should accept the reality of the four regions- Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia being a part of Russia, following the results of the referendum. He said: “Without taking these new realities into account, any progress is impossible.” Peskov also mentioned that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s three steps that he announced to the G7 leader will escalate the war rather than bring peace. The three steps were, one, providing military aid to Ukraine. Two, providing financial, energy and social stability assistance to Ukraine in 2023 and three, implementation of the 10-step peace formula that was proposed by Zelenskyy. Peskov said that these steps were aimed to continue the war and not stopping them.
On 13 December, Russia’s Defence Ministry spokesperson Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov announced that Russia would continue its offensive operations in the Donetsk region He said that Russian forces were able to intercept Ukraine‘s counterattack three times. Konashenkov reported: “As a result of fire damage, more than 30 Ukrainian servicemen, four armoured combat vehicles and three pickup trucks were destroyed.”
On 13 December, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the Council of Europe had taken a megaphone diplomacy strategy for its communication. She added that the letter written to Russia was a show of Europe’s propaganda campaign rather than displaying its interest in having a meaningful talk with Russia. The contents of the letters were publicized. The letter portrayed Russia escaping international obligations and Europe caring about human rights in Russia.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 13 December, the US sent the first part of its power equipment shipment to Ukraine to restore its energy infrastructure. The energy equipment was worth USD 13 million. Two more humanitarian assistance continuing power equipment would be shipped before 18 December. The aid is to help Ukrainians cope with the cold winters and protect their energy infrastructures. Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland also announced humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Canada pledged to provide USD 115 million to repair Ukraine’s power grids following the damages caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructures. The fund will be provided from the tariff revenues collected from Russian and Belarusian imports. Canada and the US aim to secure Ukraine’s energy infrastructure so that its people can survive through the winter.
On 13 December, the UK government announced a new package of sanctions which includes 16 individuals targeting 12 senior Russian commanders and four Iranian businessmen. The senior commanders were sanctioned for human rights violations and their direct involvement in war. The four Iranian businessmen were sanctioned due to their involvement in supplying the Iranian-made Shahed drones which destroyed civilian infrastructures and the killing of civilians.
On 13 December, the UK’s Lieutenant General Robert Magowan confirmed the involvement of the Royal Marines in covert operations in Ukraine. He said that the commandos supported classified operations in Ukraine and the mission posed high levels of political and military risks. The UK government had previously acknowledged the presence of 45 commandos in Kyiv to evacuate its embassy safely in April.
On 13 December, the UK’s Defence Ministry intelligence reported on the cancelled end-of-year press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The UK Defence Ministry predicted that the reason behind the cancellation was due to the growing anti-war sentiments among Russians and possible unwanted discussion on the special military operation. This is the first time in ten years that Putin has cancelled the annual event.
On 13 December, Reuters reported that Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto had announced Italy’s halting of weapons supply as soon as the peace talks on ending the ongoing war begins. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni promised to extend arms supply to Ukraine till 2023. However, due to friction within her right-wing coalition, Meloni along with Crosetto stated that the military assistance to Ukraine will end as soon as diplomatic talks begin between Ukraine and Russia.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 12 December, the White House released the official statements at the G7 leaders' meeting. The main focus being the Ukraine war, the G7 leaders warned that any use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by Russia would be dealt with serious consequences. The need for financial assistance for Ukraine and to meet its urgent air defence system was also discussed. The G7 member states support IAEA’s effort to create a Safety and Security Zone around the ZNPP. The G7 leaders also discussed maintaining energy and food security in Ukraine.
On 13 December, Iran’s Defence Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani said that Ukraine has failed to produce conclusive proof of Russia deploying Iranian drones in the ongoing war. The Iranian Minister said that Ukraine was falsely accusing Iran and was spreading rumours based on unproven claims. He reiterated that Iran and Russia did not develop military cooperation for the Iranian drone trade rather they had a history of interactions since long ago.
On 13 December, Israel’s four senior officials from intelligence reports said that Iran wanted to limit its missile supply to Russia fearing the UN and the US sanctions and international backlash. However, they said that Iran has not completely deterred its missile trade with Russia. It has shortened the missile ranges to less than 300 kilometres with the immediate missile supply. The missile trade will include a Fateh-110 missile system which would be modified to limit its range to less than 300 kilometres so that it does not breach the UN resolutions placed on Iran.
References
“The power unit of the nuclear power plant, which was taken out of operation after the missile attack, has been connected to the country's power system - Herman Galushchenko,” mev.gov.ua, 13 December 2022
“Ukraine receives EUR 100 million loan from France,” kmu.gov.ua, 13 December 2022
Denys Shmyhal, “Demilitarization of the Zaporizhia NPP is point #1 of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's peace plan. This issue was discussed with the head of the IAEA during the meeting in Paris.,” Telegram, 13 December 2022
Security Service of Ukraine, “The SBU detained a Russian agent in Odesa who was "in touch" with the Wagner PMC headquarters.,” Telegram, 13 December 2022
“The Kremlin spoke about the conditions for achieving peace in Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 13 December
“The Kremlin appreciated Zelensky's three proposals for peace in Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 13 December
“The Russian Defense Ministry spoke about the continuation of the offensive in the Donetsk direction,” Lenta.ru, 13 December
“Council of Europe chooses ‘megaphone diplomacy’ to communicate with Russia — diplomat,” TASS, 13 December 2022
Humeyra Pamuk and Timothy Gardner, “U.S. sends first shipment of power gear to aid Ukraine,” Reuters, 13 December 2022
“Canada to provide $115 mln to repair Kyiv's power grid,” Reuters, 13 December 2022
The UK’s Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 December 2022,” Twitter, 13 December 2022
“New UK sanctions target senior Russian commanders following strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure,” gov.uk, 13 December 2022
Angelo Amante, “Italian arms supplies to Ukraine will stop with peace talks,” Reuters, 13 December 2022
George Grylls, “Royal Marines deployed on ‘high-risk covert operations’ in Ukraine,” The Times, 13 December 2022
“G7 Leaders’ Statement,” whitehouse.gov, 12 December 2022
“No Evidence from Ukraine for Claim That Russia Uses Iranian Drones: Defence Minister,” Tasnim News Agency, 13 December 2022
Barak Ravid, “Scoop: Iran plans to limit range of missiles sent to Russia, Israeli officials say,” Axios, 13 December 2022
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh
THE UK
Rishi Sunak introduces stricter measures to deal with illegal migration
On 13 December, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak outlined five measures to combat illegal migration across the English Channel. These new measures include setting up a permanent Small Boats Operational Command, increasing raids on illegal working by law enforcement, ceasing housing asylum seekers in hotels and shifting them to alternate accommodations, increasing efficiency in processing asylum claims, and lastly stricter policies towards migrants arriving from Albania. Sunak said that the UK and the Albanian Government have entered into an agreement to decrease the number of illegal migrants coming to the UK. He has introduced a separate five-point plan under this agreement. The measures are, deploying Border Force officers in Tirana airport, declaring Albanian as a safe country, raising the threshold for one to be considered a modern slave, swift detainment and return of individuals along the ECAT, and setting up a new unit to process illegal Albanian migrants. Sunak added that under the agreement the Albanian government has agreed to protect actual victims and people at risk of re-trafficking. Lastly, Sunak said that new legislation will be introduced to swiftly return illegal migrants to their home country or shift them to a safe country where their claims can be processed. He also added that the migrants “removed” from the UK will not be able to re-enter, settle or apply for UK citizenship. (“PM statement on illegal migration: 13 December 2022,” gov.uk, 13 December 2022)
UK rail workers begin walkout strike in demand for better pay
On 13 December, Rail workers across the UK started the two-day strike led by the RMT union demanding better pay with rising inflation. The workers staged a massive walkout which led to a decrease in the number of trains running throughout the day. This led to disruption in daily commutes as trains only ran from 0730 GMT to 1830 GMT. this comes after the RMT rejected the pay offer by Network Pay which outlined an increase in pay by five per cent for 2022 and four per cent from 2023. This strike is part of a series of protests which will be held by postal workers, bus drivers, highway workers, border force and airport baggage handlers who are all demanding for the next two weeks demanding for an increase in pay amid rising inflation. (“Thousands of UK’s rail workers strike over below-inflation pay,” Al Jazeera, 13 December 2022)
TURKEY
Government introduces revised regulations after talks with the International Group of P&I Clubs
On 12 December, the Turkish Maritime Authority announced the revised insurance regulations for crude oil tankers passing through the Bosphorus strait. According to Reuters, the new regulations allows the insurance companies to not hold liability in “all circumstances.” Turkey on 01 December introduced new insurance regulations which mandated all crude oil tankers to present insurance proof when passing through the Bosphorus strait. The regulations were criticised by western insurance companies or the International Group of P&I Clubs who said that by doing so they would be in violation of sanctions imposed on countries such as Russia. This resulted in a standoff between the insurance companies that refused to comply and the Turkish government. (“Turkey reaches deal over new crude tanker insurance regulations,” Reuters, 13 December 2022)
REGIONAL
EU to set up new carbon price adjustment instrument to decrease carbon leakage
On 13 December, the European parliament announced the set up of an EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) which will adjust the carbon price paid for goods under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and for imported goods. The companies that import goods into the EU are now required to buy CBAM certificates to cover the “difference between the carbon price paid in the country of production and the price of carbon allowances in the EU ETS. The new law looks to ensure that EU efforts to combat climate change are not hampered by countries with “less ambitious policies” where EU goods are produced. The companies from countries that have the same climate “ambition” as the EU will not be required to purchase CBAM certificates to export goods. (“Deal reached on new carbon leakage instrument to raise global climate ambition,” europarl.europa.eu, 13 December 2022)
Eva Kaili removed; Socialist MEP’s under European Parliament investigation
On 13 December, European Members of Parliament (MEP) unanimously voted to remove Eva Kaili as Vice President of the European Parliament. The 625 MEPs in a plenary session voted for Kaili’s removal. Kaili’s lawyer Michalis Dimitrakopoulos said: “She has nothing to do with financing from Qatar, nothing – explicitly and unequivocally.” Eva Kaili was removed after she was arrested on the charged and arrested in an alleged corruption scandal linked with Qatar. He added that Kaili had not engaged in any “commercial activity” in her life. In the European Parliament, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group has asked the remaining MEP’s being investigated by the police or are indirectly involved to step down. S&D President Iratxe García Pérez said: "We have decided that the MEPs who are being investigated or those whose assistants are being investigated by law enforcement relinquish any position of responsibility that they exercise in the Parliament and in the S&D group as long proceedings are ongoing." Pérez added that the party will also be conducting a separate inquiry into these matters. (Eleonora Vasques “Kaili removed as EU Parliament VP following corruption scandal,” EURACTIV; 13 December 2022 and Emily Atkinson “Eva Kaili denies receiving cash from Qatar as EU corruption row grows,” Independent, 12 December 2022; Jorge Liboreiro “Socialist MEPs step down from key roles as European Parliament corruption scandal widens,” Euronews, 13 December 2022)
Slovakia signs arms deal with Sweden for 152 armoured combat vehicles
On 12 December, Slovakia signed a arms deal with the Swedish division of BAE Systems a British defence company to purchase 152 armoured combat vehicles. Slovakian Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said that he appreciates the “modernisation” of the country’s Armed Forces and that Slovakia’s progress toward the modernisation of the army has increased multifold. The company said: “..has signed a USD 1.37 billion agreement for the delivery of 152 CV9035 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) from BAE Systems." Additionally, the company said that the vehicles would mainly be the “most” modern sub-systems and would include Israeli-produced Spike-LR anti-tank missiles as well. The deal would entail the Slovakian defence industry being involved in “significant” roles in the production and lifecycles of the IFVs. (Ahmet Gencturk “Slovakia signs deal to purchase 152 armored combat vehicles,” Anadolu Agency, 13 December 2022)
ENERGY
REPowerEU plan gets approval to reduce the usage of Russian fossil fuel
On 14 December, the European Council and the European Parliament agreed upon a REPowerEU plan which will help in diversifying the energy supply and increase the energy security of the EU. The REPowerEU proposal was introduced to help the EU reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels and help restructure the EU energy sector. The members will be adopting this proposal under the NextGenerationEU initiative which will help it finance important investments and reforms. The proposal looks to introduce new reforms and investments which will help in achieving the goals of REPowerEU such as decarbonising the EU energy industry, boosting the deployment of renewable energy, and addressing energy poverty. The proposal now has to be ratified by the European Council and the Parliament. (“EU recovery plan: Provisional agreement reached on REPowerEU,” consilium.europa.eu, 13 December 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
EU-ASEAN summit to promote trade ties amid global instabilities
On 13 December, the leaders of the EU and the ASEAN began their first-ever in-person summit in Brussels to celebrate 45 years of diplomatic relations. EU officials said that this summit presents itself as an “opportunity” for the EU and ASEAN to carry out their strategic partnership and “shared” commitments to resist geopolitical tensions. They said that the EU needs to turn its attention to the persistent security challenges in Myanmar, the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea and promoted the idea of building trade relations between ASEAN member states to ice out China as a dominant influence on the region. The Chairman of the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) Charles Santiago said that a free-trade agreement between the ASEAN and the EU is “not yet on the negotiating table” and that the trade relations between the two would entail consistent sourcing of raw materials and “containing” China’s and Russia’s overwhelming influence. Additionally, he said that human rights and democracy issues are “not a priority” as trade and economics are the focal points of the summit. (Priyanka Shankar “EU-ASEAN summit to build trade ties amid global tension,” Deutsche Welle, 13 December 2022)
Amnesty accuses Spain and Morocco for covering up the Melilla border incident
On 13 December, Amnesty International released a report outlining the events of 24 June at the Melilla border between the Spanish enclave Melilla and Morocco. The report also looks into the response of Spanish and Moroccan authorities during the incident and the alleged “cover-up” by both countries with the lack of official response by both sides. The report goes on to highlight how both Spain and Morocco deny responsibility for the casualties that occurred at the Melilla border. Amnesty International’s Secretary General, Agnès Callamard said: “This smacks of a cover-up and racism, and rubs salt into already painful wounds,” and added that both governments should ensure justice is awarded to the victims and release the truth behind the incident. (“Morocco/Spain: Stalled and inadequate inquiries “smack of cover-up”, six months after 37 deaths at Melilla border,” Amnesty International, 13 December 2022)
Azerbaijani Gas is important for Serbia says Djedovic
On 13 December, Serbian Minister of Energy Dubravka Djedovic in an interview with Trend said that Azerbaijani gas supply will help Serbia in diversifying its energy supply and routes. Djedovic said that to ensure a smooth supply of gas from Azerbaijan Serbia along with Bulgaria has begun the construction of a gas interconnector which will be completed by 2023 end. This will help Serbia gain access to the Southern gas Corridor which includes the TAP gas pipeline and the Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector and boost its energy security. (Laman Zeynalova “Access to Azerbaijani gas - priority for Serbia, says minister (Interview),” Trend, 13 December 2022)