NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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War in Ukraine: Day 299
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 19 December, Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council Secretary Oleksandr Danylyuk reported on Russia's plan to sell west-manufactured weapons from the occupied parts of Ukraine to terrorists and radical organizations within the NATO member states. According to Ukraine’s intelligence source, the weapons are predicted to be directed to extremist groups in NATO countries to create chaos and disrupt the western weapons supply to Ukraine. He stated that Russia aims to spread misinformation about the US lack of arms control supply to Ukraine by providing the seized US weapons from Ukraine to extremist organizations.
On 19 December, Ukrinform reported that Ukrainian artists from Lviv Artists’ National Union organization held 50 auctions to raise money to aid Ukraine’s Armed Forces in the ongoing war. According to a Derehus award-winning Ukrainian Artist, Ihor Hryshkevych, the latest auction on 17 December raises UAH 200,000. The auctions help the Armed Forces financially in the war.
On 19 December, Ukrinform reported that a Russian suicidal drone attacked Ukraine’s capital Kyiv at night, damaging the city’s critical energy infrastructures. Kyiv implemented emergency power outages due to the drone attack. Engineers started to work on restoring the power and heating supply in Kyiv.
On 19 December, Ukraine’s Zhytomyr region Mayor, Serhiy Sukhomlyn reported in a Facebook post that the region will receive 20 buses from Estonia in January 2023, free of cost. The business meeting between Zhytomyr and Tallinn representatives met to confirm Estonia’s humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The aid looks to ease Zhytomyr residents from energy and electricity issues due to interruptions from Russian attacks.
On 19 December, Ukrinform reported that Ukraine’s air defence forces from Air Command South struck down 10 Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones that were fired by Russia. The southern direction faced incoming drone attacks sent by Russia. Ukraine’s nuclear energy generator, Energoatom also reported in a Telegram post that Russia’s kamikaze drones were sighted near the Southern Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Energoatom is concerned about the risks involving an attack on nuclear power plants.
On 19 December, Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo reported that it received energy infrastructure restoration equipment worth USD 100,000 from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The equipment is being installed in a substation affected by Russian attacks. The humanitarian aid includes devices that allow Ukrenergo to manage technological processes and monitor the substation to detect any issues on time and prevent accidents. The aid will help Ukrainians restore power supply stability throughout the winter in one region.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 19 December, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met with Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. The meeting will take place in a one-on-one discussion on integrated gas sector programs between Belarus and Russia. Putin, Lukashenko and their delegates will discuss various issues such as trade and economic agenda, and military, regional and international problems. Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said: “The entire spectrum of bilateral ties, trade and economic cooperation, part integration concerns,” as the meeting’s agenda.
On 19 December, Russia’s Foreign Ministry reported on Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meet with Belarus’ Foreign Minister Sergey Aleinik to discuss the war in Ukraine and ways to resist western sanctions. They also discussed bilateral issues faced within the Union State and other Eurasian organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russia’s chairmanship in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Belarus’s chairmanship of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
On 19 December, Russia’s Defence Ministry’s reported on launch of four US-made AGM-88 HARM aircraft, which shot anti-radar missiles, were intercepted by Russian air defence systems over the Belgorod region. The Ministry added that its air defence system shot down six rockets fired from the US-made HIMARS launchers and the Soviet Uragan systems in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and the Zaporizhzhia region. The Ukrainian attacks have left the Russian region without a power supply as it had damaged Belgorod's energy infrastructure.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 19 December, the EU agreed on a temporary mechanism to limit the “excessive gas prices.” The mechanism is seen as a market correction strategy to protect the people and economies from high gas prices, and to ensure it does not affect global market, energy supplies and financial market. According to the agreement the mechanism will be activated, if the month ahead price, the TTF (Title transfer facility) goes above EUR 180 per Megawatt hour (MhW) for three continuous working days and there is an increase of EUR 35 per MhW in the global market for the same time. Once activated the price cut will remain for 20 days and the gas suppliers will be allowed to trade only within the set limit. Thereby giving no room for “Dynamic bidding limit.” This has created fear amongst Germany, as it predicts the price limit will push away the gas supplier to sell in other markets. In response, Russian spokesperson Dimitry Peskov has stated the deal as an “attack on the market pricing,” and “unacceptable.”
On 19 December, the UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will travel to Latvia to discuss countering Russia’s aggression in the Nordic and Baltic regions with Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) member states. Sunak plans to urge the JEF member states leaders to increase their support to Ukraine in 2023, more than they did in 2022. At the JEF summit, the member state officials will discuss Ukraine’s defence needs including air defence systems. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the summit virtually and requested aid to Ukraine from the JEF member states, especially an increase in the supply of air defence systems. The UK also announced a contract of GBP 250 million worth of artillery ammunition with Ukraine in 2023 to ensure its constant supply.
On 19 December, Latvia organizes a charity marathon, which will provide funds for the refugee children in Latvia to meet their basic needs. The marathon named “Give me five!” started on 16 December, aims to help Ukrainian children refugees in Latvia. The charity raised EUR 230, 838 in three days. The marathon will last till 22 December. NGO Ziedot.lv, which is a partner of the marathon requested Latvians to contribute to the charity.
On 19 December, the UK’s Defence Ministry’s intelligence report stated that the Russian mercenary group, Wagner, has been leading a group of poorly trained convicts in the Donetsk region. They are monitored via satellites and UAVs. The experienced Wagner uses the convicts as fodder in the war and sees them as expandable assets. The Wagner group also gives the Russian army in Donetsk additional firepower.
On 19 December, EURACTIV reported that President Putin had ordered Russia’s Federal Security Services (FSB) to increase its surveillance on Russian society for the safety of the citizens from foreign attacks and traitors. Putin also ordered FSB to increase security at the border to prevent the entry of foreign special services and also to flush out traitors and spies. He said to FSB: “...significantly improve your work in key areas, and use your operational, technical and personnel potential to the fullest.” Putin assured the safety of the occupied regions from Ukraine by supplying experienced soldier units with modern weapons and equipment.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 19 December, Syria received 500,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat shipment from Russia in 2022. The wheat export is sent to Syria from Sevastopol port in Crimea via the Black Sea. A report on the shipments was released by the Ukrainian Embassy in Beirut. The Embassy tracked the shipments from January to November 2022. The report stated that Russia and Syria had used their ships to transport grain to Syria, including the three US-sanctioned Syrian ships, the Laodicea, the Finikia and the Souria. According to the report, Ukraine accused Russia of stealing its agricultural supply to export to Syria.
On 19 December, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani refuted the US CIA’s Director William Burn’s claim that military cooperation between Iran and Russia is the cause of damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructures. Kanani said that Iran does not intend its relations with Russia to cause any harm to other countries. He also said: “...acts independently in regulating its foreign relations and does not seek permission from anyone,” about Iran’s foreign policy and its relations with Russia. Iran also accused the US of creating a propaganda war against it with baseless political claims and false allegations concerning its relations with Russia.
On 19 December, TRT world reported that Russia and China will conduct naval drills from 21 to 27 December amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. The naval exercise aims to strengthen the relations between China and Russia. It will involve military and artillery firing in the East China Sea. The Russian Defence Ministry said: “The main purpose of the exercises is to strengthen naval cooperation between Russia and China, and maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”
References
Oleksandr Danyluk, “According to the information available in Ukrainian intelligence, the intelligence services of the Russian Federation are planning provocations to undermine international military-technical assistance to Ukraine.,” Facebook, 19 December 2022
“Ukrainian artists raising money for Armed Forces,” Ukrinform, 19 December 2022
“Russian drone strikes damage critical infrastructure in Kyiv,” Ukrinform, 19 December 2022
Serhiy Sukhomlyn, “Tallinn transfers 20 buses to Zhytomyr,” Facebook, 19 December 2022
“Air defense forces shoot down ten kamikaze drones in southern Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 19 December 2022
Energoatom, “Tonight, December 19 at 00:46, the Shahid kamikaze drone was recorded flying over the site of the Southern Ukrainian NPP near the nuclear installation.,” Telegram, 19 December 2022
NPC Ukrenergo, “New equipment worth more than $100K from our American partners USAID is already being prepared for installation at one of Russian shelling-damaged substations.,” Facebook, 19 December 2022
“Talks between Putin and Lukashenko kick off in Minsk,” TASS, 19 December 2022
“Press review: Putin to meet Lukashenko in Belarus and EU beats Asia in Russian LNG imports,” TASS, 19 December 2022
“Russian, Belarusian top diplomats discuss situation around Ukraine, Western sanctions,” TASS, 19 December 2022
“US-made missiles destroyed over western Russia – Moscow,” RT, 19 December 2022
“PM to meet leaders on Europe’s northern frontier to strengthen efforts to counter Russian aggression,” gov.uk, 19 December 2022
“The third day of the charity marathon Dod pieci! – collected 230 838 euros,” rus.lsm.lv, 19 December 2022
“UK PM to announce major new artillery package for Ukraine,” morningstar.co.uk, 19 December 2022
Andrius Sytas, “Ukraine's Zelenskiy asks European leaders for air defence, tanks, weapons,” Reuters, 19 December 2022
The UK’s Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 December 2022,” Twitter, 19 December 2022
“Council agrees on temporary mechanism to limit excessive gas prices,” European Council, 19 December 2022
“EU agrees to gas price cap,” Duetsche Welle, 19 December 2022
“Putin orders FSB to step up surveillance of Russians and borders,” EURACTIV, 20 December 2022
Jonathan Saul, Maha El Dahan and Maya Gebeily, “Exclusive: Crimea showers Syria with wheat, Ukraine cries foul,” Reuters, 19 December 2022
“Iran accuses US of ‘propaganda war’,” RT, 19 December 2022
“Russia, China to conduct joint naval drills under Ukraine shadow,” TRT world, 19 December 2022
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan and Allen Joe Mathew
SPAIN
Highest rate recorded in youth employment
On 20 December, EURACTIV reported on revised rate of Spain’s labour rules. It reported an increase of 142 per cent in youth workers. Europe has faced the highest rate of youth underemployment and unemployment since the global financial crisis. The improvement has been observed due to the labour reform introduced by the Socialist-led government. The youth unemployment rate of Spain improved after the economic recovery in 2021 and fell by 13 per cent after the introduction of labour regulations. After the negotiation with the labour union and employers, temporary jobs and contracts were removed to the max to reduce the job instability and unemployment rate. This has now led to a beneficial increase in the youth employment in Spain. (“Youth in Spain see jobs gain after years of instability,” EURACTIV, 20 December 2022)
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland withdraws temporarily from the UN resettlement refugee programme
On 19 December, the Switzerland announced the temporary suspension of its participation in the UN resettlement programme for refugees. The decision came as it reported on the challenge of incapacity to house the fleeing Ukrainian refugees. According to the Swiss State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) spokesperson Lukas Rieder: “The resettlement programme will not be called into question, only admissions will be temporarily suspended.” In 2022, UNHCR stated that of 1.5 million refugees, only a fraction have been allotted settlement, where Switzerland had committed for supporting 1,820 “vulnerable refugees” during 2022 and 2023 and have now withdrawn. (“Switzerland suspends admission of refugees under UN programme,” TRT World, 19 December 2022)
REGIONAL
Stricter rules to be adopted for human trafficking
On 19 December, the European Commission proposed tougher rules to tackle human trafficking. In a statement, it reported that close to 7000 people were victims in the EU, costing EUR 2.7 billion, with the highest per cent shared amongst women and girls in workplace. The new set of rules focus at forced marriage, trafficking through internet and social media, a referral mechanism at the EU level to identify the victims early, and a data collection initiative to record the trafficking. The next step will now be the review of the European Parliament and the Council and adopt for the member states to implement the laws. (“Trafficking in human beings: Commission proposes stronger rules to fight the evolving crime,” ec.europa.eu, 19 December 2022)
Sweden denies the extradition of Turkish Journalist
On 19 December, the Swedish Supreme Court blocked the extradition of the Turkish Journalist Bulent Kenes to Turkey. It has citied that there are several obstacles to the extradition as it deems it as risk of persecution, and the “political nature.” Kenes who was previously working in the Zaman daily was accused by the Turkey for supporting Fethullah Gulen and being involved in the coup attempt of 2016. Sweden’s stand on the extradition may complicate the accession process, as Turkey’s one of the key conditions were to extradite Kenes to agree membership of Sweden and Finland into NATO. The Swedish Supreme court remains to be staunch as it does not deem some of the accusations as crimes. (“Swedish court stops extradition of Turkish journalist,” Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2022)
Meta accused of breaking EU’s antitrust rules
On 19 December, the EU alleged Meta, for indulging in unfair practices. Meta owned Facebook has its marketplace linked to the main social media platform. This leads to market distortion as users are provided with automatic access to Meta’s online classified ads service. The commission’s report also revealed that Meta used data from other advertisers on Instagram and Facebook for its own benefit. Meta’s Head of competition for Europe, the Middle East and Asia, Tim Lamb denied stating that the allegations posed against the company were without any foundation. (EU accuses Facebook parent Meta of distorting ads market, Deutsche Welle, 19 December 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Three agreements signed in Kunming-Montreal deal for on biodiversity protection
On 19 December, the COP15 ended in Canada with 200 states agreeing to global protection and restoration of 30 per cent of “terrestrial, inland water, coastal and marine areas.” According to Finland’s Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Maria Ohisalo the agreement is seen as a “turning point” to bring down the biodiversity loss in countering the climate change. Of the many decisions taken, one was the removal of subsidies that affect the environment up to USD 500 billion per year and a global commitment of USD 200 billion per year was agreed to be given till 2030. Two, biodiversity has been in the central focus, including “agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture,” which are considered most vulnerable and need to be used sustainably by local communities. Three, another agreement was signed for reducing the pollutants and hazardous chemicals by 2030 to lessen the damage to biodiversity and ecosystem. The leaders agreed on setting a quantitative target to assess the risk of “nutrient emissions,” and use of pesticides. (“UN Biodiversity Conference reached agreement on halting biodiversity loss by 2030 – 30 per cent protection and restoration goal for world’s nations,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 19 December 2022)
UK High court rules in favor for refugee deportation plan
On 19 December, the London High Court ruled in favor of UK’s plan of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda, but pointed out that the government did not take into account the individual circumstances of the asylum seekers. Till date, no person has been deported but the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spoke of commencing the program as soon as possible. The legal challenge is ongoing in the courts with staunch opposition to the plan from other political parties and from the UN. The plan comes at a time where the UK has received 40,000 migrants seeking asylum. UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman stated that it is meant for discouraging illegal immigration into the country, and the business of people-smuggling. (UK court rules Rwanda deportation plan lawful, dw.com, 19 December 2022)