NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Deutsche Welle
IN BRIEF
By Allen Joe Mathew
FRANCE
Surveillance measures announced to check passengers from China
On 30 December, France’s Health and Transport Ministries announced restrictions on travellers from China. The Ministry has released strict COVID-19 surveillance measures, making it compulsory that people have a negative COVID-19 certificate that is not more than 48 hours before departure. The other measures include the mandatory wearing of masks, and maintaining social distancing. This decision comes after a surge of COVID cases after the removal of lockdowns in China on 07 December 2022. The new rules are to come into force from 05 January 2023 onwards. From 01 January, travellers from China were required to undergo an RT-PCR test upon arrival to the country. This makes France the third country in the EU to introduce screening for passengers from China as a precautionary anti-COVID measure after the EU had failed to agree on a joint plan of action on 29 December 2022. (Louise Guillot, “France becomes third EU country to screen China arrivals for COVID,” Politico, 31 December 2022)
HUNGARY
Veszprem-Balaton prepares to celebrate itself as the European Cultural Capital of 2023
On 31 December, Deutsche Welle Hungary's win as Europe's cultural capital. The EU in 2018 announced that the city of Veszprem-Balaton in Hungary has won the bid to be one of the three European Capitals of Culture for the year 2023. The EU calls for bids from countries, and selects three cities each year, these are then promoted for tourism and benefit from other related activities. Veszprem-Balaton’s turn begins on 21 January, for which preparation has got underway. Veszprem has a distinct musical culture too, which has been acknowledged by the UN, awarding the city “UNESCO City of Music” in 2019. The chief adviser for program development at Veszprem-Balaton 2023 said. “When bidding for the title of European Capital of Culture, Veszprem had two fierce rivals in Hungary: Gyor and Debrecen. "On the one hand, we had a very firm intent. On the other, it was really a case of David versus Goliath. We were the smallest city, but we were the most enthusiastic.” Themes of regeneration and sustainability have found a strong place in the art of the city and will be on showcase in the various programs during the course of the year. Nearly, 3,000 events have been planned for the year for which the government has allocated USD 186 million worth of funds. (Agnes Szabo, “Veszprem-Balaton 2023: Hungary's new creative region,” Deutsche Welle, 31 December 2022)
SWITZERLAND
Population to reach nine million in 2023
On 01 January, a report in the Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung, published the findings on the population figure for Switzerland for the year 2023. The report says that Switzerland’s population will exceed 9 million by the end of 2023. The growth is more than that of other EU countries like France, Germany and the UK. The major reason behind this is the free movement of people within the EU, which attracts immigrants to Switzerland’s high quality of life and economy. The nine million population figure includes both permanent and non-permanent residents. The newspaper spoke about the harmful effects on the environment due to population growth. It will make it harder for Switzerland to achieve its emission reduction targets, as infrastructure development and traffic will see an exponential increase. (Rico Bandel, “Welcome to the 9 million Switzerland,” Tagesanzeiger.ch, 31 December 2022)
NORWAY
The Guardian report on increased earnings from oil and gas
On 01 January, a report in The Guardian analyzed how Norway has become richer over the course of the Russia-Ukraine war due to high oil and gas prices. This increase in energy prices worldwide has led to Norway earning a profit of over EUR 113 billion in 2022. Norway has replaced Russia as the major provider of oil and gas to Europe. The report says that the increase in Norway’s earnings have not directly benefited Norwegians, for the citizens are facing increased cost-of-living expenses. In June 2022, an economics professor at Oslo University, Kalle Moene stated that Norway should put the excess profit into an international solidarity fund that would help the countries who have been affected due to the war and the disruptions of global supply chains. The government decided that it would not allocate any money for aid, instead, it reduced the aid budget from one per cent of gross national income to 0.75 per cent. This was announced by the Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Store. There is minimal support emerging within the government for sharing the profits for aid. This is due to the pressure on the government from its coalition partners, the Green party, the Christian Democratic party and the Socialist party. (Philip Oltermann, “Battle for the nation’s soul’: Norway faces debate about gas and oil wealth,” The Guardian, 01 January 2023)
THE UK
Department of Commerce reports on UK's failure to meet Brexit foreign trade deals goals
On 31 December, the UK's Department of Commerce confirmed that the UK had not been able to meet the goal of moving away from pre-Brexit trade deals. The plan was to make 80 per cent of the trade deals as new post-Brexit negotiated deals. By the end of 2022, the government has only managed to have less than two-thirds of all the foreign trade volume being covered under post-Brexit agreements. One of the defining policies that Brexit promised was the ability of the UK to negotiate and introduce its own trade deals. The data provided by the Ministry of Commerce says that only 63 per cent of all foreign trade has been covered by post-Brexit contracts. The UK apart from wanting to trade more profitably with the EU also plans to build trade relations with the US which has a larger market. It is giving more importance to having a trade deal with the US. An economist at the Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University, Andrew Lee says, “Trade deals are complicated in practice, and the rest of the world doesn't see trade with the UK as important as Brexit advocates think. Not everyone is patiently waiting in line to sign a deal with Global Britain." (“Britain misses its own targets for trade deals,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 31 December 2022)
Measures to produce nuclear fuel domestically to move away from Russian energy
On 02 January, the UK Minister of State for Energy and Climate, Graham Stuart announced that the UK has allocated EUR 75 million to fund the domestic development of nuclear fuel production. This is aimed at countering the reliance and building an alternative to Russian fuel and civil nuclear goods. The move is in line with the UK’s G7 promise of introducing a Nuclear Fuel Fund to encourage nuclear operators to use UK-produced fuel over others. The fund also helps in diversifying uranium production, which is the primary element required for nuclear projects. The UK government plans to acquire 24GW of energy from nuclear sources starting in 2050. Stuart spoke of the new development, “This investment package will strengthen the UK’s energy security, by ensuring access to a safe and secure supply of UK-produced fuel to power the UK nuclear fleet of today and tomorrow - squeezing out Russian influence, while creating more UK jobs and export opportunities.” The fund functions by taking bids from private companies, and has awarded EUR 13 million to companies in Preston. (“Ministers bolster UK nuclear fuel capacity to squeeze out Russian influence ,” Gov.uk, 2 January 2023)
Migrants who entered the UK in 2022 totals 45,756
On 01 January, the UK government released the data on the number of total migrations who tried to cross over into the UK during the year 2022. The report said that 45,756 migrants came in 2022, the highest recorded to date. There is a difference of 17,000 migrants from 2019. The report also had details regarding the number of people who tried to cross over in small boats and vessels across the English Channel on a single day. On 22 August, 1,295 people made the perilous journey over the English Channel, making it the highest recorded migrant crossing in a single day. There have been lots of accidents and deaths, due to the boats capsizing. This has become a substantial political issue at home, in the UK, conservatives trying their best to handle the situation. The government had plans to commence flights to Rwanda, with deported people onboard. UK Interior Minister, Suella Braverman said that the government would go ahead with the deportation policy. The France's government paid USD 74.5 million as funds for patrolling the French coast and deter migrants from crossing. (“UK: Record number of migrants cross the Channel in 2022,” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2022)
REGIONAL
Sweden takes over the EU Presidency from the Czech Republic
On 01 January, Sweden undertook the European Council from its predecessor, the Czech Republic. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristernsson will lead the EU’s Swedish Presidency for six months, from January to June. The four main priorities that the Swedish Presidency will look at are, security and unity, competitiveness, green transition and energy transition, and democratic values and the rule of law. Sweden will take over the EU’s Presidency amid the ongoing Ukraine war, energy crisis, inflation, economic crisis that has been prevailing over Europe. Kristersson stated: “Sweden is taking over the Presidency at a time when the European Union is facing unprecedented challenges. A greener, more secure and freer Europe is the foundation of our priorities.” Sweden will be having its third term of the EU’s Presidency and will be followed by Spain in the next half of 2023. (“The Swedish Presidency is under way,” consilium,europa.eu, 01 January 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
EU calls to improve efforts to promote peace in Eastern DRC
On 31 December, the UN Group of Experts came out with its report on the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Eastern part of the country has been embroiled in violence, which the African nations are trying to solve through the Luanda and Nairobi processes. The EU after the release of the report, responded announcing full support for the processes. It called on all the parties and political leaders to intensify their efforts to achieve peace in the region. The EU noted that the humanitarian crisis put 27 million people at risk. (“Democratic Republic of the Congo: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on the publication of the recent UN Group of Experts report,” consilium.europa.eu, 31 December 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 311 & 312
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Grounds
On 01 January, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR)’s representative, Vadym Skibitskyi, reported that the sanctions mounted on Russia by Ukraine and the West had taken a toll on Russia’s military might. According to Skibitskyi Russia’s arms stock has been decreasing. The deficit can be seen from the number of Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-101, and Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles that the Russian army has been deploying due to the shortage of anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery shells. This has made Russia depend upon Iran and Belarus to replenish its missile stock.
On 01 January, Kyiv, came under attack from Russian drones and missiles. 45 Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones were destroyed by Kyiv’s air defence systems and Ukraine’s Air Force. In the attack on new year eve, 45 suicidal drones were shot down by Ukraine’s air defence. The primary target of these drones was found to be destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Debris from the X-55 missile was also found in one of the districts of the Kyiv region. Russia was also accused for attacking near Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine using Kamikaze drones.
On 31 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his new year address spoke on Ukraine’s resilience to fight back against Russia to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Listing our the key events of the year during the course of the war said: "Putin 'hides behind you and burns your country."
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 31 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin in his new year’s address to Russia called 2022 “A year of difficult, necessary decisions, the most important steps towards gaining the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society.” Putin said that the events of 2022 are milestones for a common Russian future and Russia’s total independence. He added that 2022 was filled with anxiety, unrest and experiences which brought great, key changes to Russia and the world. He criticized the West saying that while they lied about wanting peace all along they had planned to use Ukraine to weaken Russia. On the sanction imposing on Russia, Putin said that despite the intention being to destruct "industry, finances, transport," did not materialize as the Russian society strengthened its economy to ensure sovereignty.
On 01 January, DPR’s acting Head Denis Pushilin reported on the shelling in Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Makeyevka, and Gorlovka by the Ukrainian forces that killed a civilian and injured five others. Pushlin noted: “Since 2014 it has been their cynical practice to terrorise civilians on the days of important holidays.” The shelling resulted in the destruction of an indoor bazaar, the Donbas arena stadium, the Republican Art Museum, and the Donetsk Technical School of Industrial Automation. Other civilian infrastructures like schools, private households and shops were also hit by Ukrainian artillery.
On 01 January, Gazprom announced to continue its gas supply to Europe through Ukraine via the Sudzha gas pumping station. A spokesperson for Gazprom outlined that 43.4 million cubic meters of gas were transported every day to western and central European countries. The total volume of gas to be transported was decided by Ukraine and the spokesperson added that the request for supplying gas through the Sokhranovka gas pumping station was rejected by Ukraine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 02 January, Germany will lead NATO’s "Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF)" from 2023. The VJTF was formed as a response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. Germany will contribute 8,000 soldiers out of 11,500 to the VJTF. Its purpose is to be ready to engage in short-term deployments and reach the target within 48 to 72 hours. It is seen as deterrence and defence of Europe. Germany will head the VJTF in 2023 due to the annual change of leadership.
On 31 December, the UK’s Defence Intelligence reported that Russia had a pattern of attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure every seven to ten days with missile strikes. However, Defence Intelligence speculates that Russia would break the pattern and attack Ukraine to demoralize the people amid new year celebrations.
On 31 December, Advisor to Kraus-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) Nicholas Drummond stated that Germany has started the production of 18 Remotely Controlled Howitzers RCH 155 that are part of the military package that Germany had promised Ukraine. Germany would provide 18 RCH 155 howitzers worth EUR 216 million to Ukraine.
On 31 December, the EU’s Foreign Affairs and Security Policy High Representative, Josep Borrell said in a tweet that the bloc would continue its solidarity with Ukraine in 2023. He reprimanded Russia for attacking Ukraine in 2022’s end. He said: “We are resolved to continue standing by Ukraine, also in 2023.”
On 31 December, the ISW reported on Putin's annual New Year’s Eve speech. The report stated that Putin was adamant about justifying the war and its expenses. He said: “...we are defending our people on our own historical territories in the new Russian Federation Subjects (the illegally annexed territories of Ukraine).” He added: “...was a year of difficult, necessary decisions, of important steps toward achieving the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society,” Putin displayed himself as an able wartime leader, heading the ongoing war within his control. According to ISW’s, Putin did not mention the Russian army’s setbacks and failures in his speech.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 31 December, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko. Lula and Matvienko discussed Russia-Brazil bilateral relations and emphasized the need for peace and common ground to bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end. Lula and Svyrydenko discussed the situation on the ground and the latter also presented Zelenskyy’s “..formula of peace for the world.” The two also talked about Brazil’s participation in the rebuilding of Ukraine and future economic cooperation. Lula called for an end to the conflict and said: “In Brazil, we have a tradition of defending the integrity of nations and we are going to talk to whoever is possible for peace.”
On 30 December, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that the backup power line Ferosplavna 1 to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was disconnected on 29 December. Grossi said that the 330 kilovolt (kV) backup power line was disconnected due to shelling in the region which damaged the already fragile electricity supply from the grid. The backup was allegedly lost around 2135 hours of Ukraine time due to shelling near the Dnipro river. Grossi called for an immediate cessation of all military action to restore the Ferosplavna 1 power line.
On 31 December, ICRC President Mirjana Spolarich Egger in an interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung said that she will be visiting Moscow in 2023. Egger said that her visit to Moscow is a part of the ICRC initiative to remain neutral and ensure security guarantees to volunteers on the ground and for prisoner visits. She said added that all the details for her visit have not been finalized yet. In the interview, she spoke about the work ICRC doing in Ukraine and the importance of staying neutral and abiding by humanitarian law.
References
“Russia began to change the tactics of shelling Ukraine,” gur.gov.ua, 01 January 2023
Andriy Nebytov, “Once again, I emphasize the need to take care of safety. During an air raid, take shelter.,” Telegram, 02 January 2023
Oleksiy Kuleba, “At night, the Kyiv region repelled an attack by martyr drones. the terrorist country targeted energy infrastructure facilities.,” Telegram, 01 January 2023
Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “ON NEW YEAR'S NIGHT, AIR DEFENSES DESTROYED 45 "SHAHEDS",” Telegram, 01 January 2022
“New Year greetings of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi,” president.gov.ua, 31 December 2022
“New Year's address to Russian citizens,” kremlin.ru, 31 December 2022
“DPR head: stronger Ukrainian shellings during New Year holidays well-expected,” Tass 01 January 2023
“Gazprom delivering 43.4 mln cubic meters of gas to Europe through Ukraine via Sudzha,” Tass, 01 January 2023
“Germany takes over leadership of NATO's 'spearhead force',” Deutsche Welle, 02 January 2023
The UK’s Ministry of Defence, “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 December 2022,” Twitter, 31 December 2022
“Germany begins to produce RCH 155 howitzers for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 01 January 2022
Nicholas Drummond, “Sometimes combining two proven solutions in a new concept can be revolutionary while avoiding significant risk.,” Twitter, 31 December 2022
Josep Borrel, “In 2022, Russia decided to fully abandon commitments to basic human rights and to attack Ukraine and global security,” Twitter, 31 December 2022
“RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 31,” ISW, 31 December 2022
“Lula calls for peace at meetings with Russia, Ukraine representatives,” Reuters, 01 January 2023
“Yuliia Svyrydenko presented peace formula of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to President of Brazil Lula da Silva,” kmu.gov.ua, 01 January 2023
“Update 138 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine,” iaea.org, 30 December 2022
Andrea Kucera and Daniel Friedli “Respect for martial law is the best chance for reconciliation, says the new ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger. And announces that she will travel to Moscow.,” NZZ Magazine, 31 December 2022