NIAS Area Studies
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War in Ukraine: Day 355
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 13 February, in an interview with Kyiv Post, Ukranian Internal Affairs Ministry spokesperson Marjana Reva outlined the new “Offensive Gaurd’ initiative launched by the Ministry. Under the initiative eight new assault brigades of professionals under the National Guard, the National Police and the State Border Service will be appointed. According to Reva, the new initiative is an “all-Ukrainian” recruiting initiative. The recruited personnel will include active military personnel, active policeman and volunteers. She said: “Each brigade is actually a team of people who understands what they are doing and why. This is a kind of elite, so to speak.” Reva added that the recruited personnel will have the choice to choose their brigade and will be selected after one passes through all the steps of the application process. Additionally, she said that the initiative will last until 11 April but due to the increasing influx of applications, there can be more brigades formed and continue the recruitment process.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 13 February, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that production of Russian gas had decreased by 11.66 per cent in 2022. Novak said that Russia produced 673.8 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022 compared to 762.8 billion cubic meters produced in 2021. He added that exports of Russian gas had also reduced by 25.1 per cent to 184.4 billion cubic meters. Novak amounted to this decrease to the reduced supply of Russian gas to Europe and the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline leaks. He said that Russian oil exports to China had increased by 48 per cent and added that liquefied natural gas (LNG) production increased by 7.9 per cent due to growing global demand. Novak said that in 2023 Russia plans to boost the technological development of LNG equipment. He also said that Russia will not be supplying oil or oil products to countries that are party to Western price caps on Russian oil. He said: “This year, more than 80% of oil exports and 75% of oil products are expected to be supplied to friendly countries.”
On 13 February, Russia's Foreign Deputy Minister Sergey Vershinin claimed that the extension of the Black Sea grain deal is “unreasonable” without concrete results. Vershinin in an interview with RTVI said that the deal cannot be extended: “Without tangible results on the implementation of the Russia-UN memorandum.” He also criticised the lack of progress on the Russia-UN memorandum and said that the new sanction on insurance, bank payments and access to ports are hampering any progress made so far. He added: “The whole concept of the package interconnected Istanbul agreements aimed at overcoming the food crisis, is in danger of becoming meaningless.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 13 February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO will be increasing its ammunition stockpile targets due to the rapid decline of ammunition in its inventory. Stoltenberg said: "The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of ammunition," and added that the increased supply of ammunition to Ukraine has put a strain on NATO defence industries. He said that NATO would be looking to increase investment in defence production capabilities to ramp up the production of defence equipment. He added that NATO will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” Reuters reported that before the Ukraine war, many of the NATO members had not met the targets set by NATO. It added that the rapid depletion in ammunition stockpiles has highlighted the “holes” in defence supply chains and the lack of production capacity in western defence industries. NATO defence ministers are said to meet on 14 February to discuss the issue of raising the targets and Stoltenberg said that the matter of supplying Ukraine with aircraft and jets will also be discussed.
On 13 February, Austrian Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner said that they will not be training Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard 2 main battle tanks. Tanner said that this decision was taken under the framework of Austrian laws. Austria has previously denied the request to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks due to its neutral status. Austria has a single tank battalion which consists of 48 Leopard 2 tanks and currently trains Hungary and Czech Republic soldiers on the Leopard 2 tanks. Austria has politically supported Ukraine and is a party to Western sanctions on Russia but has maintained military neutrality in the conflict.
On 13 February, Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Russia of plotting to overthrow the Moldovan government using an “external saboteur.” Sandu said that the aim of the plot is “To overthrow the constitutional order, to change the legitimate power from Chisinau to an illegitimate one.” She said that this would derail Moldova’s ambitions to integrate into the EU and restore Russian influence in the country. Sandu highlighted Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claims that Ukraine had “intercepted” plans to create political instability in Moldova and said that Moldovan intelligence had found the same. This comes as Moldova’s Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita and her government resigned on 10 February.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 13 February, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said that the new restrictions on the use of Starlink satellites in Ukraine were to prevent the escalation to a potential World War 3. Additionally, Musk said: “We’re trying hard to do the right thing, where the 'right thing' is an extremely difficult moral question.” This comes as criticism emerged after SpaceX announced that it will be limiting the use of satellites in Ukraine claiming that the satellites were being used for military purposes to control drones.
References
Daryna Kolomiiets “Ukraine’s New ‘Offensive Guard’: What It Is and How to Join,” Kyiv Post, 13 February 2023
“Russia’s gas production falls by 11.7%, export — by 25.1% in 2022,” TASS, 13 February 2023
“Russia does not plan to supply oil products under price cap rules — Novak,” TASS, 13 February 2023
“Extension of grain deal without tangible results unreasonable, says Russian diplomat,” TASS, 13 February 2023
“Russian diplomat castigates UN-brokered Istanbul grain deal’s implementation,” TASS, 13 February 2023
“Ukraine updates: NATO warns of donor ammunition shortages,” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2023
Sabine Siebold and John Irish “NATO expected to raise munitions stockpile targets as war depletes reserves,” Reuters, 13 February 2023
Timur Kurez and Erbil Basay “Austria not to train Ukrainians on Leopard 2 tanks,” Anadolu Agency, 13 February 2023
Stephen McGrath and Cristian Jardan “Moldovan leader outlines Russian ‘plan’ to topple government,” AP News, 13 February 2023
Nicolas Camut “Elon Musk says SpaceX restricted internet in Ukraine to prevent escalation ‘that may lead to WW3’,” Politico, 13 February 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
BULGARIA
Bulgarian politicians deny government sanctions by Global Magnitsky Act
On 12 February, the office of foreign assets control (OFAC) of the US treasury and the British government sanctioned Bulgarian politicians with Global Magnitsky Act. The Bulgarian politician opposed these sanctions or boasted about them. They said to be appalled by the statements made by the US and denied any form of colluding with Russia. Russophile movement leader Nickolay Malinov baste on being part of the list and said, “felt flatter” that the US blacklisted him. The UK plans to block financial transfers and deny entry to sanctioned individuals. In January Bulgaria was also outed for showing a lack of transparency by GRECO. (Svetoslav Todorov,“ Bulgarian Politicians Reject US/UK Sanctions, Deny Corruption,” Balkan Insight, 13 February 2023)
ALBANIA
Opposition disrupts parliamentary session demanding resignation of Edi Rama
On 13 February, Albanian opposition lawmakers disrupted parliamentary sessions to put pressure on their demand for the government’s resignation for alleged corruption, hundreds tried to push into the building amid protests. The demonstrations threw smoke bombs and fireworks but no arrest was made. The protest was organized by the Centre-right democratic party and left-wing freedom party inside the hall of Berisha. Where they started blowing whistles to drown down the sounds if anyone was trying to speak. The opposition held Socialist party Prime Minister Edi Rama for corruption and links to organized crime. (Llazar Semini “ Albanian opposition disrupts parliament as supporters rally,” ABC News, 14 February 2023)
TURKEY
UN admits failure to provide relief for Northwest Syria
On 13 February, Deutsche Welle reported that Turkey and Syrian rescue plan is coming to a culmination where the aim is to drag people out of the rubble stuck for days. The earthquake has reached a death toll of 35,000 while the UN estimates this would rise to 50,000. Criticism is expressed against the failure of providing the same support to northwest Syria, making them feel neglected, UN Relief Chief Martin Griffin said: “We have so far failed the people in north-west Syria. They rightly feel abandoned. Looking for international help that hasn’t arrived.” Syria's President Bashar Assad called for an urgent need for support in all areas in Syria, he allowed UN aid deliveries in the opposition-held area in Syria. The issues stand that the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group covering leading the opposition area refused to receive aid arriving from the government or the Kurdish authority and will only aid from turkey. (“Turkey-Syria earthquakes: Rescue phase 'coming to close',” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2023; “Turkey-Syria earthquakes: UN expects death toll above 50,000,” Deutsche Welle, 13 February 2023)
REGIONAL
EU off from technical recession shows winter interim forecast
On 13 February, European Commission reported that the EU economy has entered 2023 on a better stand. The Winter interim forecast shows a growth of 0.8 per cent in the EU and 0.9 per cent in the EU area, narrowly avoiding a technical recession. EU economy avoided the fourth quarter contraction projected for 2022. There has been improved diversification of supply sources and a sharp drop in consumption where gas prices have fallen below pre-war levels. But consumer business continues to face high energy costs and core inflation. The forecast depends on the assumption that Russia's aggression doesn’t escalate but continues throughout, some technical assumptions relating to exchange rates and government policies. (“Winter 2023 Economic Forecast: EU economy set to avoid recession, but headwinds persist,” European Commission,13 February 2023)
Twitter criticised for levying charge for vital API tool
On 13 February, the associated press reported about the outcry against Twitter planning to charge for vital API tool. Application Programming Interface analysis data due to its amount making it impossible to go by hand. The loss of such a tool would bring challenges for thousands of developers who use this tool for emergencies and academic and non-governmental research. During the Turkey and Syria earthquakes, thousands of software developers have been using this vital tool to sort out calls for help and aid to the necessary rescue organizations. Twitter plans to generate revenue from this vital tool which was essentially free while other platforms are making an effort to increase research access and transparency. Takeshi Kawamoto Japanese software developer created a popular earthquake alert in 2007 which uses this tool, where the bots combine the files to make it user-friendly or help the user reach a specific interest. This comes to light after musk mass-fired workers and is changing the entire structure of Twitter which has come under criticism. (Barbara Ortutay, “Twitter’s plan to charge for crucial tool prompts outcry,” Associated Press, 13 February 2023)
EU member states propose for electricity market reforms
On 13 February, A joint letter was proposed targeting EU electricity market reforms. It proposed the reforms to be focused on decarbonization and that the security of supply is safeguarded when shifting to a renewable source of energy. It listed down key principles that need to follow which include retaining the benefits of European electricity market integration, safeguarding and improving incentives to invest in the green transition, ensuring efficiency of short-term markets and optimising function of forward markets, maintaining market incentives and level playing field, strengthening protection of consumers and empowering them to participate in and the reap the benefits of the energy transition, improve resilience to external shock, every market reform needs to make the market fitter for renewable energy and ensure effective price signals for flexibility of development and ensure effective cross border trade as one important element of security of supply. (“Joint letter by DE,DK,EE,DI,LU,LV,NL on priorities for a targeted EU electricity market reform,” Twitter, 13 February 2023)