NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : AP Photo/Giuseppe Pipita
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
Italy: Migrant boat crash on the Calabrian coast
On 26 February, Italy’s news agency ANSA reported on a migrant boat crash into one of the rocky reefs on Italy’s Calabrian coast that started from Turkey. According to the report, the boast was identified by Frontex aircraft, 40 miles away from the coast. Close to 100 are expected to be dead, and 80 to have survived the total number which is estimated to range from 180 to 250. During the rescue operation by the Port Authority of Crotone, the coast guards found many children to have not survived. Upon the survivors identifying the trafficker, the port authority arrested a Turkish man. The migrants were found to have come majorly from Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Syria. On the government’s position Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Meloni said: “..is committed to preventing the departures and with them the perpetration of these tragedies, and will continue to do so, first of all by demanding maximum collaboration from the States of departure and origin.” In response to the incident, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen said on Twitter: “Member States must step forward and find a solution. Now. The EU needs common and up-to-date rules that will allow us to face the challenges of migration.”
Three issues
First, the central Mediterranean a hotspot for migrant drowning. The drowning in Italy’s Calabrian coastline is only one of the many as several drownings at small number is reported every day in the central Mediterranean. Since Greece began to take stronger action such as interrupting the migrant boats or pushing them back into international waters, the traffickers from Turkey, Afghanistan, and Syria have begun to take a longer route. This is to avoid entering Greece waters and going longer into Italy’s southwestern coastline. Of the total 12000 migrants who entered Italy, 678 were reported to have come through the Calabrian coastline. Similarly, In 2015 close to 600 people drowned due to the rough tides of the sea during a crossing from Libya to Italy, and according to the data from IOM (International Organisation of Migration) 220 have died in the Mediterranean as of 2023.
Second, the government’s narrow approach to migrants. The government has taken measures towards restricting the migrant inflow by constructing walls, installing force, and tight surveillance. Unlike Greece, due to the vast nature of Italy’s coast, the taken steps have only slowed the boats from reaching the coast than stopping them. Since the new government put its first anti-migration plan into practice, the approach towards such migration can be expected to be more on prevention than providing protection. Although the rescue operations by the coast guards have been rapid, on migration policy of Italy stands differed.
Third, the EU’s inability to address the migrant challenge. The problem of migration has existed since 2015 in the EU. It is once again subject to criticism by the regional leaders and international organization to step up the funding and is under pressure to adopt a unified rescue operation for such incidents. In the case of Italy, there is no “evaluation of integration policies,” by the EU, it is carried out only when it intervenes, while the rest is left to the national assessment. Till now the attempts taken by the Italian government since 1998 to implement the “Migration Policy Planning” and “National Integration Plan for Persons Entitled to International Protection,” were not approved at the regional level resulting in Italy’s “multi-level” migration governance framework in the abyss.
References
“Massacre of migrants in Calabria: three more bodies recovered, over 100 dead are feared,” ANSA, 27 February 2023
Frances D'emilio, “Migrant boat breaks up off Italian coast, killing nearly 60,” AP News, 27 February 2023
Chico Harlan and Stefano Pitrelli, “Dozens dead after migrant boat breaks apart near Italian coast,” The Washington Post, 26 February 2023
“Deadly shipwreck in Italy must trigger action to save lives, UN officials say,” UN, 26 February 2023
“Governance of migrant integration in Italy,” European Commission, 2023
“Italy’s migration policy is in breach of international law, say legal experts,” The Guardian, 08 November 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 367 & 368
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 26 February, Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that a full-fledged Russian offence into Ukraine could not be predicted due to “several scenarios.” Danilov noted that the deployment of troops along the Russia-Ukraine border was initially seen as an intimidation tactic. He further highlighted a “de-escalation” after Russia’s dialogues with the US, after which the dates for potential aggression were pushed further until 22 February 2022. He added that Ukraine does not consider 24 February 2022 as the start of the war but considers Russia’s attack on Crimea in 2014 as the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.
On 26 February, Ukraine’s Human Rights Parliament Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets claimed that since 26 February 2014, Russia has illegally held 180 political prisoners in Crimea. Lubinets added that out of the 180 prisoners, 116 are Crimean Tatars who had organized a rally outside the Crimean parliament in Simferopol on 26 February 2014. The protest was held in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Lubinets added that Russia conducts severe repression and persecution in Crimea due to the fear of potential Ukrainian resistance.
On 26 February, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff Spokesman Oleksandr Shtupun claimed that Russia’s offensive in six areas in Donetsk have been unsuccessful. Shtupun said that in Yagidne, Bakhmut, Orihovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Severny Donetsk and Berkhivka.
On 25 February, the Ukrainian Energy Ministry supplied Ukrgazvydobuvannya with over 62 tons of energy equipment. The Ministry stated that the electricity accumulators and powerful generators supplied were part of Sweden’s aid to help the Ukrainian energy sector. It highlighted that Sweden has transferred over 665 tons of energy equipment and materials to Ukraine since the war began.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 25 February, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed Switzerland’s Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis’s claims of “secret” negotiations taking place between Russia and Ukraine. Zakharova referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s move to sign a decree which banned any dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. She also dismissed the idea of potential negotiations in Switzerland due to its support of Western sanctions against Russia. She added that this shows that Switzerland is “no longer a neutral state and can’t claim any intermediary role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.”
On 26 February, Tinkoff Investments, a Russian bank stated that it will suspend trading in euros from 27 February. It said that this step was taken due to recent EU sanctions on Tinkoff’s assets in the EU which will be frozen and any future deals with them banned. It added that the sanctions do not have any impact on trade in dollars and other currencies and said that the bank had prepared for potential sanctions. It also said that it will be transferring all its assets to a new company that is not affected by sanctions.
On 24 February, the Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said that the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) decision to suspend Russia’s membership is a “dangerous step.” Antonov said that this “leads to the erosion of the global architecture to combat money laundering, the financing of terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.” He also criticized the FATF and its members for being a party to the US’s needs and called the decisions a politically motivated one.
On 25 February, Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the group’s forces had captured Yahidne near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Prigozhin said that the storm units of the Wagner group had captured Yahidne.
On 26 February, RT reported that Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) spokesperson Fabian Maienfisch had said that Swiss banks do not legally have the right to use frozen Russian assets for other purposes. Maienfisch said that the banks can only use the assets for routine administrative purposes which include banking charges on the account and for accounting interest rates. He added: “The management of actual portfolio of frozen assets such as attracting new investments, selling assets or changing revenue is not allowed.” The SECO in January amounted to the total amount of frozen Russian Financial assets in Switzerland to CHF 7.5 billion.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 25 February, thousands protested in Berlin criticizing the German government for its continued supply of military aid to Ukraine and calling for peace talks to stop the war. The protest called “Uprising for Peace” was organized by opposition lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht, author Alice Schwarzer and many others and mostly reflected left-wing sentiments. The protestors marched with signs reading “Negotiate, not escalate” and “Not our war.” The protest was criticised by the German government for undermining Ukraine’s right to defend itself from Russian aggression. The organizers also pegged the total number of protestors at 50,000 while the police claimed that it was around 13,000.
On 25 February, Poland’s PKN Orlen CEO Daniel Obajtek said that Russia has ceased oil supplies to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline. Obajtek said: “Only 10% of crude oil has been coming from Russia and we will replace it with oil from other sources,” and added that oil can reach PKN Orlen’s refineries from the sea. He also that this will not impact the supply of diesel and gasoline to customers. The company was receiving oil from Russia’s Tatneft, an oil and natural gas company since February 2023 after its contact with Rosneft expired.
On 25 February, the UK Defence Intelligence claimed that Russia has exhausted its stock of Iranian uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs). It highlighted the lack of reports of the OWA-UAVs being used in Ukraine after 15 February. It added that Russia will look for a resupply of the OWA-UAVs. It said that while the OWA-UAVs do not have a good track record of damaging their targets, it has been used by Russia to act as a decoy to divert Ukrainian air defence resources from detecting Russia’s cruise missiles.
On 26 February, Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich said that Belarus has an additional 1.5 million prospective military personnel other than its Armed Forces. He said that these people can be deployed if martial law is declared and the country goes into “war mode.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 26 February, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud announced humanitarian aid worth USD 410 million to Ukraine. Al Saud said: "We are focused on mitigating the consequences of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.” During his visit to Kyiv also signed a memorandum of understanding regarding the supply of oil products to Ukraine. He also reiterated Saudi Arabia’s support towards initiatives that would bring the war to an end and establish peace in the region. According to Ukraine’s presidential Office, in the USD 410 million aid, USD 100 will be used for humanitarian purposes and USD 300 will be used for oil product purchases.
On 26 February, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada is providing an additional four Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine and is imposing new sanctions related to Russia. He said that the delivery of the tanks and the new sanctions would target 129 individuals and 63 entities including the Russian deputy prime ministers and other officials. Further, he said that Canada would ban the export of “certain chemical elements” used in electronics as well as ban imports, purchases, and acquisition of Russian arms and other weapons from Canada. This comes as Canada announced nearly USD 23.5 million in support to counter chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats to Ukraine on 24 February.
On 25 February, G20 countries’ finance chiefs failed to come to a common consensus over the issue of the war in Ukraine with Russia and China refusing to sign a joint statement. India which is charing the meeting held in Bangalore released a chair summary and outcome document where it outlined the disagreements. It said: “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed that it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.” Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said: “Although there was not what we would call a communique, but only an outcome statement, we still think we've made some progress in having all the ministers on board.” Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that the G20 faces a challenge to “engage in constructive discussions” because of the Russia-Ukraine war and that it is an act that “shakes the foundations” of the global order.
References
“NSDC explains why Ukrainians weren’t warned of full-scale invasion,” Ukrinform, 26 February 2023
“Lubinets: Russia illegally holds 180 political prisoners, most of them Crimean Tatars,” Ukrinform, 26 February 2023
“Operational information as of 06.00 on 26.02.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,” YouTube, 26 February 2023
“Ukrgazvydobuvannya received more than 62 tons of equipment from Sweden,” mev.gov.ua, 25 February 2023
“Moscow responds to claims of ‘secret’ talks on Ukraine,” RT, 25 February 2023
“Tinkoff Investments to suspend trading of euro from February 27,” Tass, 26 February 2023
“FATF decision on Russia will cause problems in combating financing of terrorism — diplomat,” Tass, 25 February 2023
“Switzerland confirms stance on frozen Russian assets,” RT, 26 February 2023
“Wagner fighters capture Ukrainian village near Bakhmut, claims Russian mercenary leader,” South China Morning Post, 26 February 2023
“Thousands join Berlin rally calling for Ukraine peace talks,” AP News, 25 February 2023
“Protest in Berlin over arming Ukraine against Russia draws thousands,” Reuters, 26 February 2023
“Russia halts pipeline oil to Poland says refiner PKN Orlen,” Reuters, 25 February 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 25 February 2023,” Twitter, 25 February 2023
“Belarus says it has 1.5 mln potential soldiers,” Deutsche Welle, 26 February 2023
Aftab Ahmed, Shivangi Acharyaand Sarita Chaganti Singh “Most G20 nations condemn Russia for war, China silent,” Reuters, 26 February 2023
"Canada pledges more tanks to Ukraine, imposes new Russia sanctions," Reuters, 24 February 2023
Ismail Shakil and Steve Scherer “Canada pledges more tanks to Ukraine, imposes new Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 25 February 2023
Israa Farhan “Saudi Arabia to Send $410 Mln Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine,” See, 26 February 2023
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan
FRANCE
Defence companies in France see a boost in share since the Ukraine war
On 26 February, FT reported on Thales (France Defence Group) announcement on increasing its workforce by 12000 or 15 per cent in 2023. The group recruited 11,500 in 2022 which is higher compared to the previous years of 5000 and 8000. According to its Chief Executive Patrice Caine: “Thales proves there is an exciting future for our industry . . . not in low cost, low tech but in cutting-edge innovation.” The move comes after French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to increase the defence investment by a third (EUR 413 billion). Upon the Ukraine war, the share value of the defence companies peaked at 60 per cent. Previously the company was asked to deliver GM200 radars to Ukraine by the government. (“Thales steps up hiring as defence spending booms,” FT, 26 February 2023)
REGIONAL
DUP and the Tories not in favor of Rishi Sunak’s deal to reform the Brexit protocol
On 27 February FT reported on UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak meeting with European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen to sign a new deal on reforming the Northern Ireland Protocol. The new deal would mean a new green lane where goods that are not entering the EU would go through minimal customs checks without animal health certification at the border. Instead, the UK will regulate the VAT, and state-aid rules and the EU will discuss the latest single market rules with Northern Ireland. In response to this, the Democratic Unionist party of Northern Ireland has demanded to remove the protocol completely before signing the power-sharing government. Whereas the Tories of the UK remain unhappy with the new deal, as it still allows the intervention of the European Court of Justice and does not give the provision for the producers in Northern Ireland to opt “UK standards” for exports. (“Rishi Sunak to announce ‘fundamental’ changes to Northern Ireland trade rules,” FT, 27 February 2023)
Call for migrant return deal and financial support by the EU member states add pressure on the EU
On 25 November, EURACTIV reported on the 15 EU member states call for “stronger borders and migrant return deals” after the conference held in Athens on “border management.” The stance on migration has been tightened by the EU since 2015 and has been looking for ways to operate Frontex in third-party states to address the migration. If the agreement is passed, Frontex would be allowed to carry border management and employ border guards. For the same, the member states also called for additional financial support to install “border protection infrastructure.” (“EU states call for stronger borders, migrant return deals,” EURACTIV, 25 February 2023
CLIMATE
Dilemma over permitting farming exits as nitrogen emissions peak
On 26 February, FT reported on Netherlands Nature Minister, Christianne van der Wal issued a warning over achieving climate targets. He said that it was necessary to decide between favoring agriculture and infrastructure, as farming offers a cut in nitrogen emissions. Concerning the dispute with the farmers on greenhouse gas (GHG), the Minister highlighted that the Netherlands can no longer afford to build additional infrastructure without a cut of nitrogen emissions in another place. Its pledge to cutdown nitrogen emissions to half by 2030 seems far away with the agricultural sector emitting 46 per cent of GHG. In early February, the government set a target of 38 per cent for the energy and industrial sectors, and 25 per cent for transport, while leaving out agriculture. According to Van der wal, the farmers can relocate and innovate their business to cutdown the emissions, while the Farmer Citizen Movement (BBB) party feels otherwise. (“Netherlands raises pressure on farmers over nitrogen emissions,” FT, 26 February 2023)
SCIENCE
Russia’s MS-23 capsule docks into ISS
On 26 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the docking of the Russian MS-23 capsule with the International Space Station (ISS). The Soyuz MS-23 is missioned to bring back the Russian cosmonauts and US astronaut by September, it also transported 429 kgs of cargo to the ISS to help extend the astronauts mission. According to Roscosmos, the next “space walk” is expected to take place either in April or May. (“Russian Soyuz capsule docks with ISS,” Deutsche Welle, 26 February 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Macron to visit Africa to recoup the deteriorating support for France
On 27 February, EURACTIV reported on French President Emmanual Macron scheduled to visit the former French colonies in Africa to revamp the growing anti-french sentiment. The move comes after France was asked to withdraw its troops from Burkina Faso, this was mainly due to the government siding with Russia’s Wagner Group to fight the Islamist Insurgents. Macron is also expected to announce an “African policy” before the visit and clarify the details of France’s military strategy in Africa. (“Macron flies to Africa to counter waning French influence,” EURACTIV, 27 February 2023)