NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Vladimir Astapkovich, RIA Novosti
War in Ukraine Day: 440
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 09 May, the head of Ukraine's military administration, Serhiy Popko, reported that 23 out of the 25 cruise missiles launched by Russia had been successfully intercepted. The missiles were observed to have launched across Ukraine, especially towards Kyiv.
On 08 May, the UN stated that close to 30 million metric tons of food grain had been exported from Ukraine under the negotiated deal. This includes 600,000 metric tons of grain sent through WFP ships as part of their operations in “Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Yemen.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 09 May, in the Victory Day speech, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia’s future would depend on the forces fighting in Ukraine. Referring back to the Soviet Union period, Putin stated how the West aims to destroy Russia, break from international law and “strangle sovereign centres.” He pointed out how Ukraine had become a bait for the West to carry out its plans. Putin called for solidarity among the CIS and partnership to fight the “common threat.” Lastly, he appreciated the soldiers participating in the special military operation.
On 09 May, the Wagner group head, claimed on one of the Russian military flank to have fled from the frontlines in Bakhmut. He criticised the Russian defence ministry for “Scheming all the time,” and accused the Russian commanders for giving such orders. He added: “Soldiers should not die because of the absolute stupidity of their leadership.”
On 09 May, Russia’s forces claimed to target down Ukraine army’s reserved and ammunition depots through precision-guided weapon systems. Russian defense ministry claimed on preventing Ukraine's advance in the combat operation zone due to the strikes.
On 09 May, Russia’s temporary charge d'affaires to Japan claimed over fragile relation between Japan and Russia in bilateral cooperation due to Ukraine war. According to the spokesperson, Japan was found to be restricting exports of “wide range of goods” to Russia, reducing by 41 per cent as of March 2023.
On 09 May, in the Victory Day speech, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia’s future would depend on the forces fighting in Ukraine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 09 May, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during his address in the parliament, called for the EU member states to engage its defence industries faster. He said: “Russia's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown us how essential this realization is.”
On 09 May, on the occasion of Europe Day, which commemorates peace and unity, Kyiv received Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission.. She welcomed Ukraine’s move to make 09 May as the “Day of Europe.” Ukraine changed its commemoration from May 8th to May 9th after World War II, following the lead of other European countries. This was done to distinguish their celebration from Russia's focus on victory.
On 09 May, the US announced a new set of military aid worth USD 1.2 billion focusing on upgrading air defences and artillery ammunition of Ukraine. According to Pentagon, the package will include weapon systems that provide “critical near-term capabilities, counter-drone system ammunition, commercial satellite imagery service,” and arm the Ukraine forces to defence against Russian aggression. This will be carried out using the help of defence industries and partners of the US than using its own provision.
On 09 May, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock after the meeting with China’s Foreign Minister stated the need to deter Russia’s defence companies from getting access to war related goods. She said: “..sanctioned dual-use goods don't fall into the wrong hands.” In response to the allegations of China providing material and political support to Russia, Baerbock stated EU’s plans to sanction China’s companies. China’s Foreign Minister objected the move of individual sanction on China’s companies.
References
Antoinette Radford and George Wright, “Ukraine says it downed Russian cruise missiles aimed at Kyiv,” BBC, 09 May 2023
“Russian forces strike Ukrainian army reserves, ammo depots by precision weapons,” TASS, 09 May 2023
“Japan’s position on Ukraine leading to downturn in trade with Russia — diplomat,” TASS, 09 May 2023
“Ukraine updates: Wagner boss says Russian army fled Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 09 May 2023
“Ukraine: Von der Leyen visits Kyiv to mark Europe Day,” Deutsche Welle, 09 May 2023
Brigadier General Pat Ryder, “Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds a Press Briefing,” defense.gov, 09 May 2023
IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav, Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS
GERMANY
Debate for funding refugees underway
On 09 May, Deutsche Welle reported a debate in Germany between the federal and the state governments on increasing financial support for asylum seekers and refugees. This year alone, Germany reported a 78 per cent increase in the influx of asylum seekers as the war in Ukraine persists. Finance Minister Christian Linder calculated that the federal government contributed EUR 29.84 billion last year (2022), and EUR 26.65 billion has been earmarked for this year. It is also paying EUR five billion in social benefits for people who have fled from other countries. The 16 states demand that the federal government increase its contributions as the number of refugees increases, which has decreased in recent years. The federal government does not appear keen on increasing funds; rather, it wants the state governments to take the initiative, as they receive huge shares of federal tax, and some of them have surpluses. The government is also planning to reduce the number of incoming refugees. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has suggested pushing refugees back to Moldova and Georgia by declaring them safe countries of origin. (Olive Pieper, “Germany debates funding for refugees,” Deutsche Welle, 09 May 2023)
ITALY
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni aims to reform the constitution
On 09 May, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commenced meetings to reform the constitution to bring political stability. The 1948 Italian constitution was made to prevent dictators like Benito Mussolini from acquiring power, but this has led to coalitions. Meloni aims to adopt a presidential system. She assured that reforms would be made regardless of the unanimous consensus from the opposition, the 5-Star Movement. Post the talks, opposition leader and former Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte said that a common position has not been reached regarding the reforms. (Angelo Amante, “Meloni open talks on constitutional reform, long a mirage in Italy,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
RUSSIA
Wagner's Prigozhin accuses Russian army unit of fleeing Bakhmut
On 09 May, in a video, Russia's Wagner group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused a military unit of fleeing positions near Bakhmut in Ukraine, claiming the government was incapable of defending the country. Prigozhin released scathing videos attacking Russia's military leadership, questioning the Kremlin's ability to defend the country as Ukraine prepares for a spring offensive. He also threatened to pull his fighters out of Bakhmut if he did not receive ammunition. (“Wagner's Prigozhin says Russian army unit fled Bakhmut,” Le Monde, 09 May 2023)
Putin justifies invasion of Ukraine by praising soldiers
On 09 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed troops fighting in Ukraine during Moscow's Victory Day parade. He justified his invasion of Ukraine and accused "Western globalist elites" of provoking conflicts. Putin said Russia's future rests on soldiers fighting in Ukraine, calling it a "real war" unleashed against Russia. The parade had 3,000 fewer soldiers and less military hardware. The EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said: “Russia had "dramatically failed" in the war,” during a news conference in Kyiv, whereas German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged support for Ukraine. (George Wright, “Russia's future rests on Ukraine war, Putin tells Victory Day parade,” BBC News, 09 May 2023)
Prigozhin’s cryptic comment risks angering Kremlin over lack of ammunition in Ukraine
On 09 May, Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in an audio, referred to a figure he called "a happy Grandfather" who believed all was well with the military campaign, but failed to supply enough ammunition for his Wagner fighters in eastern Ukraine. The identity of the "Grandfather" was unclear. Analysts suggest that Prigozhin's recent volatile outbursts may be an attempt to deflect blame for lack of swift battlefield success. (Andrew Osborn, “Mercenary chief makes cryptic but profane remark about Russian war leadership,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
Russian Ambassador calls for US to build respectful relations
On 10 May, TASS reported Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov stating: “The US administration must establish mutually respectful and pragmatic relations with Russia.” During a reception dedicated to Victory Day, Antonov reminded the US of the brotherhood of arms with the Soviet Union during World War II, and expressed hope for a change in Washington's hostile policies towards Moscow. (“US should build relations with Russia on mutual respect, says Russian ambassador,” TASS, 10 May 2023)
SWITZERLAND
UBS announces leadership team for Credit Suisse takeover and plans for business evaluation
On 09 May, the UBS Group announced that CEO of Credit Suisse, Ulrich Koerner, will stay on as part of the new leadership team of the combined group after the takeover. The current finance chief of UBS’s core wealth management business, Todd Tuckner, will become the group's new chief financial officer, succeeding Sarah Youngwood, who will step down after the deal closes. Koerner will be responsible for Credit Suisse's operational continuity and client focus while supporting its integration. UBS will evaluate all options for Credit Suisse's Swiss business, including a sale or IPO of Credit Suisse's domestic unit, and will make a decision by the end of the summer. Following the legal closing of the transaction, UBS will manage two separate parent companies throughout the integration process. The bank expects the process to take three to four years. (Oliver Hirt and Tomasz Janowski, “UBS replaces CFO, keeps Credit Suisse's Koerner in top team,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
Military holds the largest drill in three decades
On 09 May, according to Reuters, Switzerland held one of the largest military drills called the LUX 23 which involved 4000 troops across four cantons over nine days. On 04 May, Swiss infantry soldiers were found taking part in an exercise at Les Pradieres shooting range with live ammunition and grenades. The LUX 23 drills have been planned since 2021. The timing of the drill has aligned with the Ukrainian war where the political factions think that this will infringe their neutrality. Also, pressure on Bern is growing to end its ban on exports of weapons to the war zones. The drill ensures Switzerland’s armed neutrality while establishing its role in the European defence. (Gabrielle Tetrault-Farber and Denis Balibouse, “Switzerland holds military drills, its role in European defence in focus,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
TURKEY
Reuters interviews Antakya locals: Support for Erdogan rises
On 09 May, Reuters interviewed the locals in Antakya and earthquake-hit regions in Southern Turkey, which is Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan's stronghold. Despite the slow response of the government to the earthquake, locals show support for Erdogan. According to Metropoll, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) support levels were 33 per cent during February 2023, but in April 2023 it was 40 per cent. The locals are confident that Erdogan will rebuild quake-hit areas as promised. According to MAK’s (Mak Survey and Consultancy) polls, Erdogan has 45.4 per cent support and the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaraglu has over 50 per cent support. The survey shows that Kilicdaroglu is favourable to winning the first round of elections. According to Seda Demiralp, international relations chair at Isik University, the earthquake will have a minimal impact on the elections unlike an economic crisis, and hence support for Erdogan is significantly rising. (Daren Butler and Bulent Usta, “Erdogan again? Amid rubble of Turkey’s quake, voters demand to be heard,” Reuters, 10 May 2023)
THE UK
Second-time strike of ambulance staff to put further pressure on the government and NHS
On 09 May, a second-time strike erupted in the southeast of England as ambulance staff employed by two ambulance trusts rejected the government’s pay offer of a lump sum cash payment for 2022 to 2023 and a below-inflation increase of five per cent for 2023 to 2024. They are part of the Unite trade Union, and its general secretary, Sharon Graham, said that the aim of this strike is to exert greater pressure on the government to reopen negotiations and make a proper wage offer to the NHS workers. Unite is one of the unions that failed to back the deal, and this strike is happening despite the NHS staff council, covering the other 12 unions that voted to accept the pay deal. (Rachel Hall, “NHS disruption warning as ambulance staff strike in south-east England,” The Guardian, 09 May 2023)
Implications of Liz Truss's upcoming visit to Taiwan next week
On 09 May, The Guardian reported Liz Truss’s upcoming visit to Taiwan next week. She is expected to deliver a speech at an event organized by the think tank Prospect Foundation. The Foundation said the title of the speech would be, “Taiwan: on the frontline of freedom and democracy.” According to The Guardian, this could potentially upset the UK’s careful approach to China relations. Truss said that she is looking forward to showing solidarity with the Taiwanese people against the increasingly aggressive behaviour from Beijing. This follows the uproar and strong opposition from Beijing following Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 and Truss' recent speeches on China in Tokyo and Washington, DC. She is also expected to meet other senior members of the Taiwanese government. The UK Foreign Office is aware of the meeting, and a spokesperson stated that they would not interfere with the travel plans of a private citizen who is not a member of the government. (Benn Quinn, Kiran Stacey, and Helen Davidson, “Liz Truss to visit Taiwan and give speech that could upset UK’s China strategy,” The Guardian, 09 May 2023)
UKRAINE
UN Secretary-General says peace talks not possible in Ukraine Conflict
On 09 May, in an interview published by Spanish daily El Pais, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “Peace talks to end the Ukraine conflict were "not possible" at present due to both parties' belief that they can win.” This came as Russian and Ukrainian leaders called for victory in WWII commemorations. He hoped to bring them to the negotiating table in the future. (“UN Chief Says Ukraine Peace Talks 'Not Possible' Right Now,” The Moscow Times, 09 May 2023)
European countries seek missile suppliers for Ukraine
On 09 May, Reuters reported that European countries led by the UK have invited companies to express their interest in supplying missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers to Ukraine. The International Fund for Ukraine, which includes Britain, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden, was established to provide weapons to Kyiv. The British Ministry of Defence, which oversees the fund, called for companies that could supply missiles launched from land, air, or sea, with a payload of between 20 and 490kg. The procurement notice also called for a low probability of intercept and air defence penetration methods. The response is expected to come before 05 June 2023. (Andrew Macaskill and Tom Balmforth, “Britain asks companies to supply long-range missiles for Ukraine,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
US and UK urge Russia to stop using hunger as a weapon in Ukraine conflict
On 09 May, The Guardian reported that the US and UK have called on Russia to stop using hunger as a weapon in the Ukraine conflict and to resume the Black Sea grain deal. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and UK’s Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, James Cleverly urged Russia to allow ships to pick up grain from Ukrainian ports, saying that blocking them results in less food reaching global markets and people in need. The UK Prime Minister will visit the US in June to host the Ukraine rebuilding conference to address post-conflict recovery. (Harry Taylor, Tom Ambrose and Hellen Sullivan, “US and UK tell Russia to stop using hunger as leverage in Ukraine conflict – as it happened,” The Guardian, 09 May 2023)
REGIONAL
New EU sanctions to target entities across the world, reports RT quoting Bloomberg and The Financial Times
On 09 May, RT reported that the EU’s 11th round of sanctions will target companies that supply goods and technology to Russia’s defence and security sector, quoting Bloomberg. 35 Companies in China and Hong Kong, and firms in Uzbekistan, Armenia, and the UAE are likely to be targeted. According to the Financial Times, 3HC semiconductors and King-Pai technology from China and Sinno Electronics, Sigma Technology, Asia Pacific Links, Tordan Industry, and Alpha Trading Investments from Hong Kong are expected to be sanctioned. The 11th round of the sanctions list also includes already sanctioned Iranian companies that supply drones to Russia and more than 100 Russian companies. The 11th round of sanctions will be discussed today at the (“EU to take anti-Russia sanctions global - media,” RT, 09 May 2023)
CYBER
EU Lawmakers concerned about misuse of Pegasus Spyware in Hungary and Poland
On 09 May, AP News reported that lawmakers in the EU have expressed grave concerns over the use of the Pegasus spyware against opposition politicians and journalists in Hungary and Poland. The spyware, developed by Israeli cyber-intelligence company NSO, has been used globally to infiltrate the phones and computers of political figures, human rights activists, reporters, and religious leaders. However, after a year-long investigation, the lawmakers reported a lack of cooperation, preventing them from uncovering concrete evidence. Dutch Liberal lawmaker Sophie In‘t Veld, who co-led the inquiry, stated that none of the authorities were willing to cooperate. In their final report, the lawmakers accused Poland's right-wing government of using Pegasus as part of a broader campaign to stifle dissent, while Hungary's use of spyware was deemed a strategic campaign to suppress media freedom and freedom of expression. The lawmakers sent questionnaires to all 27 EU member countries but received very few relevant responses. The abuse of spyware was found to have no connection with national security, and justice has yet to be served to victims of spying. NSO has faced export restrictions and legal action from major technology firms. (Lorne Cook, “EU lawmakers warn of Hungary, Poland spyware abuses,” AP News, 09 May 2023)
GENDER
Turkish women are less likely to vote for President Tayyip Recep Erdogan
On 10 May, Politico reported that women are less likely to vote for Erdogan in the upcoming presidential elections due to his Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) coalitions. AKP’s alliance with the Islamist New Welfare Party and the Kurdish HUDA-PAR jeopardizes his win. The New Welfare Party’s buses show only pictures of the male candidates, while women are sidelined as dark silhouettes. HUDA-PAR is known for its criminal activities such as murder and torture, and is an extension of Kurdish Hizbullah. These parties demand to criminalize adultery, cancel laws on violence against women, restrict their mobility, and change women’s eligibility age to marry. Within the party, female candidates such as Ozlem Zengin say that these demands have crossed the red line. 10 million women are to vote this Sunday. Resentment towards Erdogan and his coalitions is rising as women see the coalition parties as a threat to their independence. (Elcin Poyrazlar, “Turkey’s Erdogan risks alienating conservative women voters,” Politico.eu, 10 May 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Qin Gang says Beijing will maintain communication for ceasefire in Ukraine
On 09 May, during a joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang stated: “China would continue to communicate with all parties involved in the Ukrainian war, including Germany, to achieve a ceasefire.” European countries have criticized China for not acknowledging Russia's invasion of Ukraine or supporting Ukraine's sovereignty. Beijing has dismissed Western concerns about arming Russia for the conflict, calling it a "special military operation" against security threats. Germany has been reevaluating its relationship with China, its largest trading partner, in light of growing strategic tensions. Baerbock called on China to explicitly support Ukraine's territorial integrity and stated that China could play a crucial role in ending the war if it chose to do so. The two officials also discussed the European Union's proposed sanctions against Russia and companies involved in bypassing them. (Alexander Ratz and Friederike Heine, “China says it's in touch with all parties in seeking Ukraine ceasefire,” Reuters, 09 May 2023)
Russia protesting to Poland as it prevented Russians from laying flowers on Victory Day
On 09 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused Polish authorities of failing to prevent the "provocative actions of the protesters", which disrupted the commemoration and violated the country's obligations. The Ministry called it an "affront" to the memory of over 600,000 Soviet soldiers who liberated Poland from the Nazis. The statement said: “The incident highlighted the "duplicity of Warsaw's policy" in evaluating WWII events,” adding that Russia would respond accordingly. Russia will lodge a formal protest to Poland over the actions of a crowd that prevented Russian diplomats from laying flowers at a Soviet military cemetery in Warsaw on 09 May. (“Russia to protest to Poland over provocation against Russian diplomats on May 9 - MFA,” TASS, 09 May 2023)
Turkish election leaves uncertainty for Greece and East Mediterranean relations
On 09 May, Politico reported that Greek-Turkish relations remain tense regardless of who wins the Turkish election, according to analysts. Greek hopes for a change of backlashes from a potential Kemal KılıçdaroÄŸlu government are unlikely to be met, since Ankara's strategic "red lines" are seen as inflexible, with both the ruling and opposition parties committed to the "blue homeland" policy, which aims to project Turkish naval supremacy in the Eastern Mediterranean. The two countries are also unlikely to diverge greatly on their approach to Cyprus. While opposition leader KılıçdaroÄŸlu may prove a more diplomatic partner, he is not expected to offer substantive changes to Turkey's policies on energy resources in the East Mediterranean, Cyprus, and marine boundaries. (Nektaria Stamouli, “Turkey’s election gives Greece a migraine,” Politico.eu, 09 May 2023)
Also Read...
Nigel Hunt, Explainer: Why the EU is restricting grain imports from Ukraine
Reuters, 9 May 2023
“The European Commission has announced restrictions on the imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria until June 5. The move led to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria lifting unilateral import bans they had imposed citing the need to protect their farmers. Romania had not banned imports.”
Rachel Marsden, The West risks creating a ‘Snow ISIS’ in Europe with extremists going to fight in Ukraine
RT, 08 May 2023
“The West risks creating an international terrorist Disneyland in Ukraine like it did in Syria. Back in 2018, French intelligence services worried about the return of French jihadists from Syria and the impact of returning fighters on French and European domestic security. Do they have the same fears about returning fighters from Ukraine?”
Timur Fomenko, What can China do in response to NATO’s foray into Asia?
RT, 08 May 2023
“So what can China do to respond to this attempt at ‘alliance encirclement’ against it? First, it can strengthen its ties with Russia and aim to create a deeper balance of power in the Asia-Pacific. Secondly, it can revitalize old alliances and strengthen its ties with North Korea as a military partner. After all, the DPRK is still obligated by the 1961 treaty of mutual assistance to come to China’s aid in a war and can be used to contain Japan and South Korea. Thirdly, it can look to build new military partnerships with regional countries who feel similarly threatened by US expansionism.”
Jade McGlynn, The Great Patriotic Special Military Operation
The Moscow Times, 8 May 2023
“But the Great Patriotic War is not just a constitutive part of Russian identity — it is also a constitutive part of mainstream Russian depictions of its nine-year war on Ukraine. Pro-war Russians conflate Ukrainian identity with treachery, extreme nationalism and Nazi collaborationism — and present themselves as reliving the feats of their Red Army ancestors by liberating Ukrainians from Nazi tyranny.”