NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Kremlin.ru
EM DAILY FOCUS
Putin’s Victory Day Speech: Three Takeaways
By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS
The Victory Day Speech is making headlines as Putin's assertiveness solidifies again despite the declining prowess of Russia in Ukraine. His eight-minute-long speech clearly shows that he does not regret going to war with Ukraine (Click here for the speech). He defends the invasion and hopes for victory. He often reflects on the past glory of the USSR and links the present with the war of 1941 to 1945 for defending his decisions and the ongoing conflict.
The following are the three takeaways.
1. Blame the West for the War in Ukraine:
Putin strongly condemns the Western narrative of maintaining superiority to perpetuate the Ukraine war. He asserts that the West kindles conflicts by pitting people and splitting societies. In the context of the Ukraine war, this statement blames the West for exacerbating the conflict through interventions. For him, the West spreads hate propaganda against Russia by spreading Russophobia and destroying Soviet war monuments and memorials. He adds that the West aims to cancel out the contributions of the Soviets by doing so. He accused the West of suppressing the people, especially the Ukrainians. He called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, "a hostage of the coup d'etat under the Western regime." Blaming the West and denying Russian aggression shows Putin's desperation to prove the righteousness of his decisions.
2. Revive the past glory of the USSR:
Throughout the speech, Putin glorifies the Great Patriotic War and the sacrifice of the then soldiers and leaders. He proclaims the legacy of the importance of having solidarity and partnership against a "common threat." He links the War of 1941 to 1945 to that of the ongoing war in Ukraine and gives a justification for it which shows his unwavering decision to fight despite an impending failure that could fall on Russia. This is also in line with the fact that he had to scale back the Victory Day celebrations in 23 regions which could mean that he is facing problems within the boundaries regarding the ongoing war.
3. Not war, but "special military operation":
Even after 439 days of war and both sides fighting and retaliating strongly Putin addresses this conflict as "special military operation." He uses this phrase thrice and admires the valour of the military men by denoting them as, "participants of special military operation." This shows his determination and clever interplay of words to justify his actions and this war to the Russian public and the world, especially the West. It can also be seen as a means to attract people to fight by infusing and invoking the nationalistic spirit to fight for the cause Russian cause in Ukraine.
War in Ukraine Day: 441
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 10 May, Ukraine Armed Forces confirmed the fleeing of a Russian military unit from the frontline of Bakhmut. In line with the earlier claim of the Wagner group leader, the Ukraine military claimed Russia’s 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade and “500 corpses” had left Bakhmut. Russia is yet to confirm the position of the Brigade.
On 10 May, in his daily address, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the intention to drive away the Russian forces using the West support who are inside Ukraine. He said: “We will not leave a single piece of our land to the enemy — tyranny will rule nowhere.” He also confirmed the ongoing preparation for post-war reconstruction economically, industrial, education and health care.
On 10 May, on the confusing claims over the effectiveness of the spring counteroffensive, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba claimed that Ukraine would not stop with one. He stated that it would launch more counteroffensives until it recaptures its territories. He reiterated the demand for more weapons from the West and proposed to Germany to convince the US to hand over F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 10 May, Russia’s Wagner group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed his concerns over the possibility of being circled in Bakhmut. He said: “In view of the lack of ammunition, the 'meat grinder' is now threatening to turn in the opposite direction.” Prigozhin warned over the threat of encirclement due to a break in the flanks.
On 10 May, RT reported on an attack on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline in the Bryansk region. Transneft oil company claimed the attacks, which confirmed the shelling in three empty fuel tanks. The pipeline is a key oil transport network connecting Russia with Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Hungary and many EU countries. As per the report, Russia’s Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk, placed in the border with Ukraine, have experienced frequent attacks since the war.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 10 May, NATO military committee chairman reported that Russia was facing challenges due to “old military hardware.” According to the chairman, Russia was found to be using T-54 tanks from a 1954 design. This was due to the lack of focus as Russia prioritises quantity, large number of recruits and older material.
On 10 May, the EU member states discussed imposing sanctions on Russia. The discussion did not promise the immediate signing of the new set of sanctions. China and Iran’s companies are specifically expected to come under sanctions for helping Russia to escape sanctions.
On 10 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on Russia’s Victory Day parade. The report observed close to 8,000 personnel participating, including auxiliary, paramilitary, and cadets under training. According to the Ministry: “The make-up of Russia's annual Victory Day Parade in Red Square highlighted the materiel and strategic communications challenges the military is facing 15 months into the war in Ukraine.” From the parade, it stated how only vintage T-34 tank was displayed, while Russia could display other tanks despite the losses in Ukraine.
References
“Zelensky vows to retake every piece of Ukrainian territory,” anews.com.tr, 11 May 2023
“Ukraine unit says Russian brigade flees outskirts of Bakhmut,” Reuters, 10 May 2023
Tim Lister, Uliana Pavlova and Christian Edwards, “Wagner boss fumes that Russian brigade 'fled' from Bakhmut area,” Kake.com, 10 May 2023
“Russian pipeline supplying oil to EU bombed by Kiev’s forces – Transneft,” RT, 10 May 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 10 May 2023.,” Ministry of Defence/Twitter, 10 May 2023
“Ukraine updates: New claims that Russian units fled Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 10 May 2023
IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav, Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS
GEORGIA
In a contradictory stance, the President accuses Russia of 'provocation'
On May 10, RT reported Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili's displeasure with Russia's decision to abolish the flight ban and restore visa-free travel for Georgians and called it "another provocation," primarily because of Russia's war with Ukraine. Contradicting the President's pro-Ukrainian stance, the Foreign Minister welcomed the move, and the government has repeatedly refused to join Western sanctions and efforts by Kyiv to have a hostile approach towards Russia. Moscow placed a flight ban in the summer of 2019 as a response to a series of violent anti-Russian protests in Tbilisi, where a few demonstrators attempted to storm the parliament building, disrupt the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy (IAO), and insult its President Sergey Gavrilov, who was also the head of the Russian delegation. According to the new decree, Georgian citizens will require visas only if they plan to stay in Russia for more than three months to work or study. ("Georgian president accuses Russia of 'provocation'," RT, 10 May 2023)
PORTUGAL
Officials seek help from Brussels as a severe drought spreads
On 10 May, Reuters reported that the drought had spread almost across almost all of mainland Portugal during April, quoting the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). The officials sought help from the EU as the drought continues to threaten the farming sector, water reservoirs, and the country at large. According to the agency, April 2023 was the third-driest and fourth-warmest in the last 92 years in mainland Portugal, as 90 per cent of its territory is suffering from extreme drought, with the northeast and southern regions badly hit. It is predicted that the dry weather could continue for some time. (Patricia Vincente Rua, "Severe drought spreads in Portugal, officials seek EU help," Reuters,10 May 2023)
POLAND
Recommendation to rename Kaliningrad infuriates Russia
On 09 May, Poland's Committee on Standardisation of Geographical Names Outside the Republic of Poland suggested renaming Kaliningrad into Królewiec and the wider area of the exclave as Obwód Królewiecki in Poland. Kaliningrad is the strategically important exclave between Poland and Lithuania that houses the Russian Baltic Fleet and its only ice-free European ports. According to the committee, the decision to discard the use of the "imposed name" is partly a result of Russia's Ukrainian invasion and its finding that Kaliningrad is unrelated to either the city or the region that instigated "emotional and negative" resonance in Poland. Kremlin has reacted furiously and called the decision "bordering on madness and "a hostile act," says BBC News. The committee's recommendation is not binding, but the committee expects the country to follow the decision. Poland's foreign ministry is positive about the name change. (Adam Easton and Tom Spender, "Kaliningrad: Russia fury as Poland body recommends renaming exclave," BBC News,10 May 2023)
RUSSIA
Kremlin Spokesman dismisses ICC charges against Putin and Lvova-Belova
On 10 May, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, dismissed the International Criminal Court's charges against Russian President Vladimir Putin and children's rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, by responding: "The International Criminal Court is a puppet of the collective West and Russia finds it hard to imagine any country would dare enforce its writ against a sovereign nuclear power". Peskov also noted that Russia is a large nuclear power and it's unlikely anyone would act on the warrant against Putin. He criticized the ICC for targeting Bosnian Serbs in the past and stated: "Russia does not recognize the court." The ICC accused Putin and Lvova-Belova of overseeing the "unlawful transfer" of children from occupied areas of Ukraine, which Russia denies. ("Kremlin not worried about ICC warrant for Putin – spokesman," RT News, 10 May 2023)
Kremlin spokesman blames the West for Ukraine conflict
On 10 May, Russia's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated: "The West forced Russia to launch its military operation in Ukraine by expanding NATO, engaging in deception, and refusing to treat Moscow as an equal partner." He further added that the US, EU, and NATO indirectly joined the conflict by supporting Ukraine. Peskov reminded that the West organized the 2014 coup in Ukraine and turned a blind eye to Kyiv's aggression against its own people. ("West only interested in 'talking down’ to Russia – Kremlin,” RT News, 11 May 2023)
SERBIA
Nearly, 3000 guns surrendered in an amnesty
On 10 May, Serbian President Aleksander Vucic said that 3000 illegal weapons were surrendered in the first two days of the gun amnesty, which began on 08 May. Under the amnesty, people can surrender legal and illegal weapons, ammunition and ordnance without any questions asked. The amnesty comes following the shooting by a 13-year-old boy who killed nine people and the mass shootings by a man in two villages which killed 14 people. Vucic said additional checks of registered gun owners and shooting ranges will be carried out. The stationing of police outside schools and longer jail terms for illegal possession of weapons will be established. (Aleksander Vasovic, “Serbians surrender over 3000 pieces of weapons after mass shootings,” Reuters, 11 May 2023)
TURKEY
High voter turnout in Germany
On 27 April, overseas voting began for the presidential elections. On 10 May, overseas ballots were flown back to Turkey. The overseas ballot was introduced by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2014. Turks in Germany turn out in record high numbers to cast vote in the presidential elections. According to the Turkish ambassador to Germany Basar Sen’s interview with BR24, over 50 per cent have voted, four per cent higher than in the 2018 elections. According to the Republican People’s Party’s Chairman of the Berlin branch, there was a 25 per cent increase in voter turnout in Berlin. (Gabriel Rinaldi and Peter Wilke, “Record number of Turks vote in Germany in ‘fateful election’ for Erdogan,” Politico.eu, 10 May 2023)
THE UK
Government slows the deadline to retain EU laws
On 10 May, the UK government disposed of the December 2023 deadline to replace or remove EU laws. Businesses have complained that the process causes regulatory problems. Conservative Party MPs and the members of the House of Lords called out for an extended timetable for the Retained EU Law Bill. The bill contained a ‘sunset clause’ put forth by former Business Secretary Jacob Ress-Mogg which was supposed to remove EU laws not reviewed by the government. Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch had amended the bill and only some laws will be put under the sunset clause. According to Badenoch’s interview with Telegraph, a slowed timetable will prevent the civil service from choosing laws that have to be preserved by the deadline but to reform the laws. (Stefan Boscia, “UK ditches deadline for Brexit bonfire of EU laws after business backlash,” Politico.eu, 10 May 2023)
Pro-Brexit areas swing towards the Labour Party in municipal elections
On 04 May, municipal elections were held across the UK in which the Labour Party won in pro-Brexit areas in Ramsgate Harbour in the Thanet council. The region was the UK Independent Party (UKIP) and its successor, Brexit Party and later, the Conservatives’ heartland. The people who voted for ‘leave’ in Brexit are now supporting the Labour Party. The support for the party has grown 14 per cent compared to 2019. According to The Economist, middle-class emigres who arrived in Ramsgate during the pandemic support the Labour Party. The UKIP councillors have lost in all the councils, Reform UK won six councils showing the Tories’ support but the swing towards the Labour Party shows otherwise. (“Labour makes striking gains in the heartland of Brexit,” The Economist, 11 May 2023)
UKRAINE
Russian forces pull back in Bakhmut after Ukrainian counterattacks
On 10 May, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces said that the Russian troops had fallen back in some regions in the eastern Donetsk region, up to a mile near Bakhmut, after limited counterattacks by Kyiv. He added that the enemy could not withstand the onslaught of Ukrainian defenders, which forced them to retreat. Russian troops have been battling since the summer of 2022 to capture Bakhmut, but to no avail so far, and it is one of the most devastated regions. This follows Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin’s public complaint to Moscow about the lack of resources to hold positions in Ukraine and his threat to withdraw his forces from the city. (“Ukraine Says Russian Forces Pulling Back After Bakhmut Attacks,” The Moscow Times,10 May 2023)
US transfer millions seized from the Russian Oligarch to rebuild Ukraine
On 10 May, the Justice Department announced that it would transfer USD 5.4 million seized from Russian tycoon Konstantin Malofeyev to fund rebuilding Ukraine. According to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the funds will be used to remediate the harms of Russia’s unjust war in Ukraine. The US said Malofeyev, who built his fortune in banking, telecommunications, and media, was the main source of funding for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. He was indicted in April 2022 for violating sanctions related to the Russian-backed secession war in Donbas and the subsequent Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014. (“US Sets $5.4Mln Seized from Russian Oligarch for Ukraine Reconstruction,” The Moscow Times,10 May 2023)
“I want everybody to stop dying,” says Trump to CNN on the Ukrainian war
On 10 May, Trump told CNN that he don’t want to side with either side of the conflict but to settle the conflict, quoted BCC. He said that winning or losing in Ukraine doesn’t matter as far as nobody dies. Trump stressed that the Ukrainian war wouldn’t have occurred if he were the President and that if he gets elected he will negotiate a settlement in 24 hours. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a mistake but he is not a war criminal. According to BCC, Republicans resent the US’s support to the Ukrainian war and if ascending the presidency for the second time Trump will alter US’s policy towards Ukraine. (Anthony Zurcher, “Trump talks Ukraine and pardoning Capitol rioters in CNN townhall”, BCC News, 11 May 2023)
Also Read...
Andrey Pertsev, For Ambitious Russian Officials, the War Has Failed to Become a Career Elevator
The Moscow Times, 10 May 2023
“For all the talk within the Kremlin of a career elevator, in reality, the federal government has very little to offer to regional executives. Prestigious positions inside Russia are already occupied by people whom the Kremlin needs, and there is nothing to offer them instead.”
Suzanne Lynch, Why the EU loves ErdoÄŸan
Politico, 11 May 2023
“With the autocratic leader in charge, the bloc doesn’t have to wrestle with the possibility of Turkey joining its ranks.”