NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
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War in Ukraine: Day 464
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George
War on the Ground
On 02 June, Ukrainian General Staff of Armed Forces reported on Facebook that Ukraine's defence forces successfully repelled 15 Russian attacks on the eastern front line. The Russians launched 62 air strikes, 15 missile strikes, and about 20 MLRS attacks. Ukrainian troops defended all attacks. Eight Russian attacks were repelled in the Marinka sector, resulting in Russian casualties and vehicle destruction. Russia has also strengthened its border with cadets from military institutions. The Ukrainian air force struck Russian concentrations, destroying cruise missiles and attacking drones. Ukrainian rocket and artillery units targeted Russian command posts and equipment.
On 02 June, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is expanding its digital solutions export to Europe, Latin America, and Africa. He highlighted the cooperation with Estonia and the development of the Ukrainian Diia government application, which will be adopted in Estonia. The aim is to provide convenient and useful government services to millions globally, emphasizing Ukraine's leadership in digitalization.
On 02 June, according to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office, the village of Kivsharivka in the Kupyansk district was targeted by Russian military shelling, resulting in the death of a man and a woman. Three civilians, including a three year old boy, were injured. Subsequently, the front-line village of Dvorichna was shelled. Pre-trial investigations for violations of laws and customs of war have been initiated. Earlier, there was a missile attack in the Kharkiv region.
On 02 June, Ukrainian Air Force announced,Ukraine's air defences successfully neutralizing 15 Russian cruise missiles and 21 attack drones during the night. The Ukrainian Air Force, in collaboration with the Defense Forces' air defences, thwarted the Russian attempts to target Kyiv with drones and missiles. The cruise missiles and drones were destroyed as they entered Ukrainian territory from different directions.
On 02 June, the Ukrainian farm minister stated that Ukraine is prepared to pursue a "plan B" for grain exports across the Black Sea if Russia withdraws support from the current grain export deal. The agreement, brokered by the UN and Turkey, aimed to address the global food crisis resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite the deal, Russia has restricted the use of Ukraine's major Black Sea port and limited food deliveries. The minister proposed a new arrangement that excludes Russia, offering insurance guarantees and creating a special fund for companies. While hoping for the current initiative's success, Ukraine is ready to explore alternative options.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 02 May, Russia's Belgorod Region Governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that two people were killed and at least six were injured because of Ukrainian shelling. An eleven year old child got injured in the left eye with shrapnel. In Shebekino city, two people were injured.
On 2 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin held an online Russia's Security Council meeting with the permanent members. The meeting was regarding the issues of inter-ethnic relations within the country. He said that this was on account of the intensifying efforts of the enemies to destabilize domestic political security and the security of the whole country.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 02 June, in an interview with The Washington Post, Britain's Defence Secretary Ben Wallace expressed optimism about Ukraine's ability to retake Crimea from Russia. Contrary to some NATO officials' doubts, he believed that Russian forces, facing equipment shortages, could be defeated. He acknowledged differences regarding Ukraine's NATO membership prospects, emphasizing the need for realism and avoiding overpromising. Instead, he mentioned the potential for bilateral or multilateral defence agreements to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities. Wallace stated that Western countries remain supportive, providing weapons and funding without pressuring Ukraine to negotiate or make concessions. However, he noted that defence equipment donations are dwindling, leading to increased purchases. The extent of Russian losses suggests Putin's reliance on pouring more troops into the conflict, potentially unaware of the true challenges his military faces. Wallace highlighted the importance of being ready for unforeseen circumstances.
On 02 June, according to a Facebook post by the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces, the Norwegian National Guard (Forsvaret Heimevernet) instructors, as part of the multinational training operation called "INTERFLEX," continue to train Ukrainian servicemen and servicewomen in mine safety. The training aims to equip them with knowledge, skills, and practical methods to ensure the safety of their lives and health during combat operations or in areas contaminated by explosive objects. This training enhances the combat skills of Ukrainian servicemen and servicewomen, improving personal and unit security in different scenarios.
On 02 June, during a joint press conference in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Estonian President Alar Karis discussed the potential collaboration in creating joint defence enterprises and involving Estonian experts in demining Ukrainian territory. Zelensky expressed gratitude for Estonia's support, including political assistance, sanctions against Russia, and the provision of weapons. They also addressed the situation at the front and preparations for international events, including the upcoming NATO summit. Estonia has been actively involved in practical reconstruction projects in Ukraine, such as the opening of a kindergarten in the Zhytomyr region.
On 02 June, Ukraine's State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure and the European Investment Bank signed an EU grant agreement worth over EUR 50 million. The funds will support critical infrastructure and the construction of temporary bridges in war-affected regions. Ukrainian state agency heads, Mustafa Nayyem, expressed gratitude for the support and emphasized the importance of restoring logistics and transport services to isolated communities. Till now, 85 temporary bridges have been built, with the aim of providing vital aid and public services to citizens affected by the Russian invasion, which has resulted in the destruction of 346 bridges in Ukraine.
On 01 June, the Financial Times reported that the European Commission is developing a four year financing plan worth billions of euros to provide stable and predictable support to Ukraine. The plan aims to address the criticism of the EU's inconsistent financial assistance to Kyiv, given the country's strained public finances due to the war. If approved, the funds would offer Ukraine greater financial visibility and encourage other allies like the US and UK to make long-term commitments. The proposal, which may involve new debt issuance, could cover Ukraine's general budgetary support and immediate rebuilding needs. Obtaining unanimous agreement from EU member states, however, could be challenging.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War
On 02 June, Ukrinform reported that the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov discussed with defence ministers of the US and Canada to acquire further assistance in war and for the reconstruction of Ukraine during the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore. He tweeted that US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand assured their support for Ukraine.
On 02 June, the IAEA updated the Director General's statement regarding the safety of the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The Director General announced the delivery of essential medical equipment and support to Ukrainian Nuclear Power plants (NPPs) for the people who work in the facilities. The report says that there were two deliveries that happened in recent days, which had Satellite communication systems, antennas and spectrometers to South Ukraine NPP and State Nuclear Inspectorate of Ukraine that were contributed by USA and UK. There were eighteen deliveries in total and totalling EUR 5 million. It says that both Russia and Ukraine expressed strong support for ensuring nuclear safety and security and would adhere to the five principles laid down by Director General Grossi. The report said that the eighth mission of IAEA experts' planned rotation since last September has been delayed because of the local weather condition
References
"Operational information as of 18.00 02.06.2023 on the Russian invasion," Facebook, 02 June 2023
"Ukrainian air shield must continuously have all it needs – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address," president.gov.ua, 02 June 2023
"The occupiers shelled Kharkiv Oblast - prosecutors and police investigators are working at the sites of shelling," Telegram, 02 June 2023
"15 cruise missiles and 21 strike drones were destroyed," Telegram, 02 June 2023
"Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, minister says," Reuters, 02 June 2023
"Britain's defense chief, a contender to run NATO, lays out his vision," The Washington Post, 02 June 2023
"More Russian civilians killed by Ukrainian strikes – governor," RT News, 03 June 2023
"General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Facebook, 02 June 2023
"Demining, defense enterprises: Zelensky outlines details of his meeting with Estonian president," Ukrinform, 02 June 2023
"The EIB and Ukrzaliznytsia signed an EU grant agreement in the amount of 6.7 million euros to meet the urgent needs of railway transport in Ukraine," eib.org, 02 June 2023
"Sam Fleming and Henry Foy "Brussels plans four-year financial support for Ukraine," Financial Times, 01 June 2023
"Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council," Kremlin, 02 June 2023
"Ukraine's Reznikov meets with U.S., Canadian defense ministers," Ukrinform, 02 June 2023
In Brief
By Sreeja JS and Nithyashree RB
GERMANY
Luftwaffe pilots trained Chinese pilots: Der Spiegel
On 02 June, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that he would investigate allegations that former German pilots training Chinese pilots. The report was released by Der Spiegel, in which it claimed Luftwaffe officers were employed in China as trainers. The report said that shell companies were used for payments. The soldiers are believed to have disclosed NATO's and Budeswehr's tactics. Pistorius said that former Bundeswehr soldiers were allowed to take up jobs that are under the Soldiers' Act. ("Germany to probe report of Chinese pilot training," Deutsche Welle, 03 June 2023)
KOSOVO
Prime Minister willing to organize new elections in Northern Kosovo says spokesperson
On 02 June, Prime Minister expressed his willingness to conduct new elections in Northern Kosovo after violent protests caused tensions between Serbia and Kosovo. Albin Kurti made the suggestions as diplomatic pressure from the US, France and Germany mounted on him to call for re-elections that ethnic Albanians won after the Kosovo Serb population boycotted the polls. On 01 June, he tweeted urging Serbia to help reduce tensions by calling for "an immediate end to violence by Belgrade-sponsored mobs against security officers until new elections in the thos municipalities," quotes Politico. (Nicolas Camut and Lili Bayer, "Kosovo PM open to redoing elections after violent protests," Politico.eu, 02 June 2023)
POLAND
President calls for amendments within days of signing a law to curb Russia's influence
On 02 June, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that amendments will be made to a law that is aimed to curb Russia's influence. Duda was already facing criticisms for signing the law from the West and the opposition. His recent ventures to amend it, have also given rise to criticisms from people who want to either keep the law as it is or for signing the law earlier. The law was signed on 30 May. It will create a committee to investigate officials under Russian influence and oust them from office. Duda's Law and Justice party's spokesman affirmed that the fundamental aims of the bill will remain. One of the opposition parties leader Szymon Holownia commented, "President Duda has applied the right of veto against his own signature." (Monila Scislowska, "Poland's president proposes urgent amendments to law on Russian influence," AP News, 02 June 2023)
SWITZERLAND
Federal Council adopts a maritime strategy
On 02 June, Switzerland's Federal Council adopted a maritime strategy despite being a landlocked country. Bern's strategy includes looking at five areas. First, international law through which the Sustainable Development Goals Agenda implementation. Second, the maritime economy through which sea-borne imports are managed under a framework. Third, environmental concerns for marine life and society through which it will focus on maritime biodiversity, plastic pollution and climate protection. Fourth, maritime science and research through which the scientific community will be supported. Fifth, Swiss-flagged vessels through which registration of Swiss-flagged commercial vessels will be made easier. ("Federal Council adopts maritime strategy for Switzerland," The Federal Council, 02 June 2023)
REGIONAL
"A ceasefire resulting in a frozen conflict will not bring lasting peace," says Ursula von der Leyen
On 31 May, speaking at the Globsec conference in Bratislava, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said that a ceasefire would result in a frozen conflict that would not bring lasting peace and increase regional stability. She further added that: "we want a just peace, one that does not reward the aggressor, but one that upholds the principles of the UN Charter, and the Ukrainian people's right to be masters of their own future." She continued by saying that just and lasting peace can only be realized through "long-term" security guarantees delivered by "like-minded" states to fortify Ukraine against Russian attacks in the future. This process is to be done in parallel with the democratic reforms in Ukraine necessary to advance its EU accession bid. She did not mention which country should form the "like-minded" states or whether the arrangement should be governed by NATO in her speech. (Jorge Liboreiro, "A ceasefire in Ukraine would lead to a 'frozen conflict,' says Ursula von der Leyen," Euronews, 31 May 2023)
Azerbaijan accuses France of misinterpreting the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks
On 02 June, Politico reported that Azerbaijan has accused French President Emmanuel Macron of misinterpreting the discussions during high-stakes peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met on 01 June on the sidelines of the summit in Moldova to negotiate a potential peace treaty. Macron along with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel joined the meeting as mediators. Following the summit, Elysée Palace issued a statement saying that the European leaders called on both countries to respect all their commitments, the release of prisoners and avoidance of hostile rhetoric. Macron's press service added that the leaders also stressed the importance of defining rights and guarantee for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, the region where Armenia fought a brutal war in 2020. Both statements were refuted by the Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry on 02 June by saying that they distort the position of the parties. (Gabriel Gavin, "Azerbaijan accuses Macron of 'distorting' Armenia peace talks after EU summit," Politico.eu, 02 June 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
UK ministers take part in Shangri-La Dialogue
On 02 May, UK's Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCDO) Minister of State Anne-Marie Trevelyan attended the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue. Wallace stressed the importance of "building a stable and balanced Asia-Pacific" along with ministers from Canada and the Philippines. Wallace said: "We understand that Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security is indivisible and that upholding the rules-based order is a collective effort – that is why organizations like ASEAN are so important." Trevelyan said: The UK is committed to playing a full and active role in ensuring a free, safe and open Indo-Pacific, working with partners in ASEAN and beyond to tackle global challenges." ("UK commitment to Indo-Pacific reaffirmed as global summit takes place in Singapore," GOV.UK, 03 May 2023)