NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : Associated Press
IN FOCUS
By Rishika Yadav
Belarus receives tactical nuclear weapons from Russia: Three issues
On 13 June, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on receiving some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons. He emphasized the power of the Russian nuclear weapons as three times more potent than the atomic bombs. Lukashenko clarified that he would consult with Russian President Vladimir Putin before using the weapons but expressed confidence in their coordination. Lukashenko justified the deployment as a deterrent against potential aggression. He added that Belarus was also preparing facilities for intercontinental nuclear-tipped missiles. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine previously hosted Soviet nuclear weapons but relinquished them to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
On 25 March, Putin announced his plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as a response to Britain's decision to supply Ukraine with armour-piercing rounds containing depleted uranium. These tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield, and have a shorter range and lower yield than long-range nuclear warheads. Russia will maintain control over the weapons deployed in Belarus, with storage facilities set to be completed by 01 July. Lukashenko also offered nuclear weapons to countries joining the union between Belarus and Russia. Lukashenko's remarks were made in response to Kazakhstan's president mentioning the sharing of nuclear weapons between Belarus and Russia.
Following are the three issues:
1. Domestic opposition to the deployment:
If implemented, the plan to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus and involve Belarusian aircrew, would compromise the country's international commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. This deployment raises concerns among the Belarusians people due to its nuclear status which undermines the global non-proliferation regime. According to polls, 74 per cent of Belarusians oppose hosting Russian nuclear weapons. Critics of Lukashenko's regime, including exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, express concern about the transfer of nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus.
As the G7 leaders met to discuss nuclear disarmament, they urged the international community to support Belarus in maintaining its nuclear-free status by joining the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
2. Risk for further escalation:
Russia's plan to place the tactical weapon in Belarus comes in response to the increasing weapon support by the West to Ukraine. The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus solidifies Russia's control over the country, threatening Ukraine's security and that of Europe. Through control, Russia will now be able to use it as storage while its instills fear in the west over nuclear armament. The tactical nuclear weapons, deployable through Iskander-M missiles or Su-25 planes, bring them closer to the conflict zone in Ukraine and potentially within range of NATO members. Putin also mentioned that Belarus has modernized military aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads and Iskander short-range missiles that could potentially launch nuclear weapons. Lukashenko commented: "I am not planning to fight the US… tactical weapons are fine." This move heightens tensions and draws international condemnation, raising concerns in the US and Europe.
3. Deepening reliance on Russia:
Belarus served as a launching point for Russian troops during their incursion into Ukraine. Lukashenko disclosed plans to increase the production of unguided rockets for multiple rocket launchers. He has relied on Russia's political and economic support to withstand protests, arrests, and international sanctions. It is important to note that Lukashenko relies heavily on Putin's government, as demonstrated by Belarus allowing Moscow to use its territory for launching attacks on Ukraine last year. This decision widened the front against Ukraine and brought the conflict closer to its capital, Kyiv. Russia’s beginning the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, further solidifying their alliance.
References
“Leader of Belarus says he wouldn’t hesitate to use Russian nuclear weapons to repel aggression,” AP news, 14 May 2023
“Putin says Russia will station tactical nukes in Belarus,” AP news, 26 March 2023
Gaya Gupta, “Lukashenko says Belarus has started receiving Russian nuclear weapons,” The New York Times, 14 June 2023
Andrew Roth, “Russia moving nuclear warheads to Belarus, says dictator Lukashenko,” The Guardian, 25 May 2023
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Daniel Hogsta, “Russia must cancel dangerous plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus,” Politico, 20 May 2023
“Belarus: Lukashenko says Russian tactical nukes on their way,” Deutsche Welle, 25 May 2023
Tom Nichols, “What Happens if Russia Stashes Nukes in Belarus,” The Atlantic, 26 May 2023
Haley Ott, “Belarus now has Russian nuclear weapons "three times more powerful" than those used on Japan, leader says,” CBS news, 14 June 2023
Sarah Rainsford, “Russian nuclear weapons 'in hands of Belarus dictator', warns opposition leader,” BBC News, 15 May 2023
Yuliya Talmazan, “‘Nuclear weapons for everyone’ who joins Belarus and Russia, Putin ally promises,” NBC news, 29 May 2023
Andrew Osborn, “Belarus to get Russian tactical nuclear weapons 'in days,' Lukashenko says,” Reuters, 13 June 2023
War in Ukraine: Day 476
By Nithyashree RB
War on the Ground
On 14 June, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s spokesperson, Natalia Humeniuk comments on Russian shelling in Southern Ukraine. In an interview with United News, Humeniuk, said that the shelling had decreased in Southern Ukraine. She added that the number of Russia’s troops' attacks had reduced to 38 from 60 on 14 June. According to her, shelling continued in the flood-hit areas in Kherson. She said that missiles were launched from the Black Sea by Russia towards the Odesa region. She said the Ukrainian Air defence units shot down three Kalibr cruise missiles, and nine Shahed drones which were fired towards Odesa and Donetsk region.
On 14 June, Netherlands’ Defence Ministry announced its joint plans to commence F-16 fighter jet training for Ukraine’s pilots along with Denmark and the US. On the same, Netherlands’ Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren, stated that basic pilot and language proficiency training will be provided. It will be carried out through the setting up of a training centre in one of the Eastern European countries, while Belgium, Luxembourg, and the UK will prepare the content for the course.
On 14 June, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal informed on Telegram that Kingspan Group, an Irish building materials company, is investing over USD 280 million in Ukraine. Shmyhal added that it could create 700 jobs and help in the reconstruction of houses and industries.
On 14 June, the European Commission stated that following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, the EU sent three mobile water treatment stations that can produce up to 120,000 litres of water. Under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism 16 EU member countries have sent financial aid, water tankers, pumps and various equipment to flood-hit regions in Ukraine. The EU has provided a further EUR 500,000 for flood relief over the EUR 200 million allocated for Ukraine for the year 2023.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 14 June, RT reported on Russia’s defence ministry's claims of killing Ukrainian troops. According to the report, 7500 Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded on the front line and had lost 800 soldiers, 20 tanks, 15 armoured vehicles and four armoured personnel carriers. The ministry added that the attacks on Makarivka and Prechistovka by the Ukrainian troops were unsuccessful. The ministry affirmed that the Ukrainian troops failed in gaining territories since their counter-offensive.
On 14 June, RT reported on Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) report on a state of emergency in Kherson. According to the report following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, damages accounted for more than USD 14 million and 2,237 people, 194 children and 138 physically impaired persons were reported to have been rescued from the flood-hit regions in Kherson.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 14 June, Azerbaycan reported on the European Council meeting held in Brussels to discuss the 11th round of sanctions on Russia. Azerbaycan added that sanction measures will be prepared in the next EU summit which is expected to be held on 29-30 June. The 11th round of sanctions aims at sanctioning those helping Russia circumvent the sanctions.
On 14 June, The New York Times reported that Germany established its first national security strategy in the aftermath of the Ukrainian war and various military, economic and geopolitical threats. The strategy will focus on three pillars. First, an active defence, that induces high military spending. Second, resilience, to be self-reliant, to prevent cyberattacks and to uphold the rule of law and the UN charter. Third, sustainability, to focus on climate change and the food crisis.
On 14 June, NATO reported on the upcoming Vilnius summit. According to NATO, the defence ministers will be meeting in Brussels on 15-16 June ahead of the Vilnius summit to discuss providing support to Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: “The more gains Ukraine makes, the more likely it will be that President Putin realises he cannot win on the battlefield, but has to negotiate a just peace.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the War
On 14 June, UNHCR published the Global Trends in Forced Displacement 2022 that 5.7 million people fled Ukraine and 5.9 million were internally displaced due to the war in 2022. The number of refugees increased by 35 per cent and is primarily due to the Ukrainian war and 16 per cent of the world refugees were Ukrainians. The report stated that the Ukrainian war triggered the “fastest displacement crisis” and Ukraine had faced the fastest refugee outflow since the second world war. In 2022, 57 per cent of the Internally Displaced persons were women in Ukraine.
References
“Enemy shells Kherson region 57 times in past day, civilian killed,” Ukrinform, 14 June 2023
“Denys Shmyhal Prime Minister of Ukraine,” Telegram, 14 June 2023
“Training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots will start in the coming months,” Defense.nl, 14 June 2023
“Ukraine: EU mobilises emergency stockpiles and provides funding to support crisis response to Nova Kakhovka dam breach,” European Commission, 14 June 2023
“Moscow estimates Ukraine’s counteroffensive losses,” RT News, 14 June 2023
“Moscow reveals estimated financial costs of Kakhovka dam destruction,” RT News, 14 June 2023
“Ukraine forces shell Nova Kakhovka -Russia-installed officials,” Reuters, 14 June 2023
“EU leaders push for latest anti-Russia sanctions package,” Azerbaycan, 14 June 2023
Steven Erlanger and Christopher F Scuetze, “Germany Introduces Its First National Security Strategy,” The New York Times, 14 June 2023
“NATO Defence Ministers to address Ukraine support, deterrence and defence, investment,” NATO, 14 June 2023
“Global Trends in Forced Displacement 2022 (embargoed),” UNHCR, 14 June 2023
IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran and Melvin George
FINLAND
Rise in the number of wolves in Finland
On 14 June, Yle News reported on Natural Resources Institute Finland’s study on the wolf population. It found an increase in the wolf population in the country compared to last year. This keeps in trend with the annual 10 per cent increase observed since 2017. An increased reproductive rate, decreasing death rates and migration of wolves from Russia explains the growing population. Initially populating the west, wolves are now also seen in southwest Finland. However, the increase in wolf numbers has alarmed sheep and reindeer herders and dog owners as there have been a few reports of the wolves hunting their animals. (“Finland's wolf population continues to grow,” Yle News, 14 June 2023)
FRANCE
Macron assures support for French AI startups
On 14 June, during a press conference, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced EUR 500 million for the AI projects targeting Silicon Valley confirming the English language dominance in AI systems. Products ranging from augmented reality ski masks to AI-animated bots from over 2000 companies are being displayed in the tech trade show. Macron confirmed earlier that he would meet Elon Musk on 14 June where both would discuss encouraging AI developments in France. Macron emphasized speeding up AI regulations that are under process in the EU and warned against regulation devoid of investing. (“Macron announces €500 million in funding for AI,” Le Monde, 14 June 2023)
GERMANY
Coalition to amend contested heating law
On 14 June, The Guardian reported that Germany has settled on amending the contested heating law which faced strong debates for weeks. However, environmental organizations argued that this will delay the country's goal to achieve net zero targets by years. According to the original bill, the installation of green heating systems was vouched when being replaced. The amendment shifts this responsibility from individual households to municipal officials who are expected to lay a ground plan by 2028. The shift is expected to cause EUR 9.2 billion a year till 2028 which will be subsidized through government funds. (“Germany coalition staves off implosion with 11th-hour heating law amendment,” The Guardian, 14 June 2023)
REGIONAL
Erdogan opposes Sweden entering the NATO bid
On 14 June, the Turkey's President Erdogan declared that Sweden had not received any support to join the NATO military alliance from Turkey. Officials expressed disappointment as there was not any apparent progress. Both Sweden and Finland were prepared to enter the NATO bid in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine War but were disrupted by Turkey’s concern about Stockholm’s act of support to the Kurdish groups of Ankara. Despite Sweden’s declaration of updated domestic terrorism legislation, Erdogan seem to be unconvinced. Ukraine and Sweden joining NATO will soon be discussed in the Vilinius summit in Lithuania. (Nicolas Camut and Lili Bayer, “Turkey’s Erdogan plays down Sweden’s NATO hopes,” Politico.eu, 14 June 2023)
Anti-competitive practices in Google adtech may attract harshest penality: says EU
On 14 June, Reuters reported that the European Commission sets out to investigate Google's ad tech business favouring its own advertising services. It may attract fines of up to ten per cent of Google’s global turnover. Seventy nine per cent of the total revenue of Google last year came from advertising businesses using Gmail, Google Play, Google Maps, YouTube adverts, Google Ad Manager, AdMob and AdSense. This comes to around USD 224.5 billion. The European Council has given Google a few months to respond on the issue. EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager said: "For instance, Google could divest its sell-side tools, DFP and AdX. By doing so, we would put an end to the conflicts of interest…how they function and also why a behavioural commitment seemed to be out of the question." (Foo Yun Chee, “Google faces EU break-up order over anti-competitive adtech practices,” Reuters, 15 June 2023)
European Parliament to vote on AI act
On 14 June, the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will vote on the draft negotiation mandate to bring the Artificial Intelligence Act. The act is seen as the first-ever comprehensive rule in the world to manage AI and associated risks. Looking forward to the foundation models and generative AI, several transparency and safety provisions were added to the draft. The draft was formulated by the committees on the Internal Market (IMCO) and Civil Liberties (LIBE). The MEPs proposed expansion of prohibited AI practices such as “real-time” remote biometric identification systems, predictive policing, and emotion recognition to the draft. They also recommended including high-risk issues related to AI like use in recommender systems and voter influencing. (“Artificial Intelligence Act: press conference 14/6 at 13.30 CEST with President and co-rapporteurs,” European Parliament, 14 June 2023)
CLIMATE CHANGE
European Commission’s expert body faces backlash from NGOs
On 14 June, Euractiv reported on the Expert Group on Carbon Removals that will aid the EU to research and implement plans to reduce negative carbon emissions. The planned second meeting of the expert body has run into concerns from five NGOs highlighting the issues of less representation of environmental and scientific groups and the low number of female speakers during the first meeting. The letter stated that more business organizations were considered and also given more speaking time during the previous meeting. The Commission has responded by saying that participants are selected through fixed criteria and gender diversity has been ensured for the forthcoming meeting. (Julia Dahm, “Carbon sinks: NGOs slam ‘unbalanced’ Commission expert body,” Euractiv, 14 June 2023)
Europe braces for harsh weather conditions
On 14 June, the European Environment Agency (EEA) reported that Europe is headed for extreme weather. The EEA released an online tool named ‘Extreme summer weather in a changing climate: is Europe prepared?’ to inform users about weather patterns, possible natural disasters and climate-related diseases across Europe. With the summer approaching, European countries are expected to experience increased heat waves, flooding, droughts and wildfires. The EEA highlighted the importance of preparing preventive and mitigation strategies to combat climate-sensitive impacts. It called for the participation of local authorities as well as for a special focus on the agriculture sector. The EEA’s Climate-Adapt portal has listed various measures already in place. (“What could the summer bring? Is extreme weather the new normal?,” European Environment Agency, 14 June 2023)
EU Mission on adaptation to climate change forum concluded successfully
On 14 June, the European Commission reported that over 600 participants actively took part in the two-day Forum of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change. The participants were from Europe and outside the continent. The discussions revolved around climate change, management and adaptation practices, and collaboration opportunities between national and regional authorities across Europe and beyond. The event showcased the active response and readiness of various actors to tackle climate-related changes across Europe and the world. (“Shaping the future of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change,” European Commission, 14 June 2023)
GENDER
LGBTQ+ community alarmed at the latest bill
On 14 June, Russian lawmakers approved a bill that bans gender transitioning procedures. Senior lawmaker Pyotr Tolstoy declared that the act was approved to protect Russia’s family and culture from being infiltrated into Western anti-family ideologies. The bill also banned medical interventions aimed at changing the sex of a person. Russian transgender community and LGBTQ+ rights advocates expressed their concern and demanded safety in Russia, as they are sure the bill would easily pass 400 members of the parliament. Since 2013, the state has restricted various LGBTQ rights, and Russian authorities fear the steady growth of reported gender transition cases. Speaker of the State Duma stated gender transition as: “pure satanism.” Therapists and Medical authorities questioned the future of the marginalized community. (Dasha Litvinova, “In blow to Russian LGBTQ+ community, lawmakers weigh a bill banning gender transitioning procedures,” AP News, 14 June 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Mali Referendum to decide on constitutional changes
On 13 June, France 24 reported that Mali is set to vote on a referendum on 18 June that will decide whether the constitution will be subject to reforms. If successful, the country will see the demotion of French as an official language and the granting of voting rights to municipal elections for Malians residing abroad. On 11 June, the military set off the referendum procedure by casting early ballots. (“Vote on Malian constitution: Soldiers cast ballots during early referendum,” France 24, 13 June 2023)