NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
IN FOCUS
By Prerana
Air Defender 23: A Symbol of NATO’s Unity
On 12 June 2023, NATO officially launched the “Air Defender 23” military exercise in Germany, which will run until 23 June 2023. Around 25 NATO countries will participate in the 12-day training drill, which includes more than 250 aircraft and 10,000 personnel deployed from their respective countries. The authorities will supervise the effectiveness of the cargo and fuel flights, both of which are used by Ukrainian troops in Kyiv’s war against Russia. This drill is considered the largest air deployment in the bloc’s history. The main objective behind the drill is to protect its member nations against drones, and cruise artilleries attacks within the NATO territory. German General, Gerhartz stated that the primary purpose of the drill is to showcase the unity among the NATO force against Russian aggression and to provide reassurance to the member countries, in defending their territory from upcoming conflicts.
A brief background
NATO exercises focus on the dynamic structure of different variants like systems, map exercise, communication, ground work, capacity analysis and air space training. These exercises contribute immensely on the improvised version of defense reforms. NATO has conducted several air drills since February 2022 till date.
On 14 March, NATO organized a massive military drill named “Cold Response 2022” in Norway, which was exercised till 1 April 2022. It was an edition of 220 aircraft defence strategy, held in Norway. On 7 June, a US held Naval force held an annual naval exercise in the Baltic Sea along with its member allies. It received a high amount of participation from the Sweden force. On 23 September, NATO introduced the first unmanned Maritime systems exercise, which was held in the Portugal Maritime Operational Experimentation Centre, Portugal. With around 1,500 personnel, the unmanned system came to a halt on 30 September 2022. NATO holds the largest annual cyber defence exercise named Cyber Coalition 2022, which began its training on 28 November 2022 and wrapped up on 2 December 2022. This challenges the cyber threat and various advanced infrastructural attacks, which can cause disruption to the NATO force and to its allies. It acts as an experimental campaign which collaborates with various stakeholders and organizations. The exercise is followed by the latest drill named Arctic Challenge Exercise 2023 (ACE 2023). It holds the notable multinational host nations, which include the Air Forces of Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Air Defender 2023 holds the historical impressions of being the largest air force deployment with essential transatlantic solidarity.
Air drills: Location and its equipment
The air crafts from the joined countries will be stationed on several essential air bases, like Jagel Airbase in Germany and the operations are held at three main hubs which includes Schleswig/Hohn, Wunstorf and Lechfeld located in the northern, lower Saxony and the eastern parts of Germany respectively, while other training events will focus on the ground troops and evacuation missions. The groundwork training areas can extend over northern Brandenburg, Mecklenburg, western Pomeranian region and the Baltic Sea. The Fighter planes used include US F-35 stealth jets F-15s and F-16s, Turkey, US and Greece, Eurofighters from Spain and the UK, German Tornadoes, US and Finnish F/A-18s, Hungarian Gripens and US A-10 ground-attack jets. The drill focuses on two major activities which includes NATO Air Policing and NATO Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). NATO Air Policing contributes the strong solidarity among Allies and acts as a shield to the Baltic members, which do not possess the required aircraft. While NATO (BMD) shields the populations and the territories from a varied proliferation of ballistic missiles.
Significance of the drills
The Air Defender exercise is led by the German Air Force, and the country also manages the air operations. The drill signifies the alliance’s promptness in reassessing its priorities. The NATO members of the Baltic region, located in north-eastern Europe, are concerned about the Russian invasion and its massive impact on them. Ukraine has received strong supporters in Eastern Europe, which includes Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland etc. The exercise would further address the ongoing tension in the Baltic region. This multi-national military exercise holds a strong political and notable military significance in the Air Force record and highlights Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which features an essential concept of collective defence. Ukraine has received influential IRIS-T (medium range air defence) and Patriot missile defence systems from their partners in combating the ongoing attack. The Air Defender drill acts as an offensive and defensive exercise. Controlling the airspace remains the key element of a successful military, and Ukraine would soon deploy its troop in order to adapt such qualitative technologies.
References
“Germany hosts biggest ever air exercise of NATO forces,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 12 June 2023
Mustafa Deveci, “Largest NATO drill in Germany shows commitment to Eastern flank security,” Anadolu Ajansi, 13 June 2023
Alexandra Sharp, “NATO Begins Largest Air Force Drills in Its History,” Foreign Policy, 12 June 2023
Brad, “As Ukraine fights back, hundreds of NATO warplanes are flying over Germany in alliance’s largest-ever aerial drills,” CNN World, 14 June 2023
“Air Defender 23,” Bundeswehr, Accessed on 15 June 2023
“NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 13 June 2023
“Why advanced weapons can help Ukraine defeat Russia,” European Council on Foreign Relations, 20 April 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 477
By Sreeja JS
War on the Ground
On 15 June, Ukrinform reported Russian missile attacks in Kryyvyi Rih in the Dnipropetrovsk region at night. Two industrial enterprises got hit, and the production facilities were significantly damaged. Ukraine’s air defence forces shot down one missile, and the soldiers of the Air Command East destroyed five Shahed-131/136 drones.
On 15 June, The Kyiv Independent reported that Ukrainian forces gained up to one kilometre in the eastern and southern directions. According to Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the Ukrainian military is progressing near Vuhledar in Eastern Donetsk. Ukrainian forces have made limited success so far. According to The Kyiv Independent, Ukrainian forces have liberated seven settlements in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts over the past week reclaiming more than 100 kilometres. They have also advanced up to three kilometres to the south of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast.
On 15 June, in an interview with NBC News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia is putting up a desperate fight against the Ukrainian counteroffensive and if the Russian troops lose this campaign, it would mean losing the war, reports NBC News. He added that the news from the front lines is “generally positive, but it is very difficult.”
On 15 June, Zelenskyy addressed the Federal Assembly and the people of the Swiss Federation. He said, “Ukrainian land is a territory of peace,” and “the cause of aggression is outside our borders.” He expressed his gratitude towards Switzerland for not remaining indifferent to the Russian invasion and for supporting the joint European sanctions against Russia. He also invited Swiss citizens to join the preparation of the Global Peace Summit as part of the Ukrainian Peace Formula.
The Moscow View
On 15 June, RT reported that Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) would conduct elections in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaprozhzhia regions on Russia’s Single Voting Day, scheduled on 10 September.
On 14 June, Russia’s Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic Aleksey Chekunkov during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum told RT that the Arctic is crucial for the future of Russia’s economy. He said: “The Arctic and the Far East are a treasure trove. The Arctic is where the future economy of Russia is being built. What happens today in the Arctic and the Far East will serve many generations of Russians.” He also stressed that Russia is engaged in developing infrastructure in the Northern Sea Route.
On 15 June, during a joint press conference with Algeria’s President AbdelMadjid Tebboune, Putin stated that Russia’s contacts with African countries now are more intensive than ever. He also said that he would meet the leaders of several other African countries to discuss the Ukrainian Peace initiative in the coming days.
The West View
On 15 June, the UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update mentioned the Russian Ministry of Defence’s demand that the members of “volunteer formations” like Wagner Group sign contracts with the Ministry. It noted Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin’s decision that the group would not sign the contracts. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, Prigozhin’s rhetoric is evolving into defiance of broader sections of the Russian establishment.
On 15 June, according to a press release in GOV.UK the defence ministries of Denmark, Netherlands, the UK and the US Department of Defence are partnering to deliver air defence equipment to Ukraine. According to the press release, the delivery of equipment has already begun and would be complete within several weeks.
On 15 June, NATO Defence Ministers met in Brussels ahead of the Vilnius Summit in early July. While addressing the NATO-Ukraine Commission, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO Allies should continue increasing equipment delivery to Kyiv. Stoltenberg reaffirmed that “Ukraine’s future lies within the Euro-Atlantic family and that all allies agree that Ukraine will become a NATO member.
On 15 June, Members of the European Parliament called upon NATO to invite Ukraine to join the alliance. In the resolution that was adopted, they emphasized that Kyiv’s integration into NATO and the EU would enhance security and strengthen the relationship between Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic community. They condemned the Kakhovka dam collapse and called for a comprehensive and adequate EU recovery package for Ukraine for its immediate relief, reconstruction and recovery.
On 14 June, NATO Secretary while addressing Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive said: “It is still early days, and we do not know if this will be a turning point of the war, but we see that the Ukrainians are making advances and liberating more land.” He also stated that the more gains Ukraine makes, the stronger its hand will be at the negotiating table, eventually making Putin realize that he has to negotiate peace.
The Global Fallouts
On 15 June, SAnews reported that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has arrived in Warsaw for a visit to Poland, Ukraine and Russia. He is heading a delegation consisting of Heads of State from Zambia, the Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda to lead African Peace Mission. Ramaphosa has previously remarked that the aim of the mission is to hear from both leaders to discuss what would it take to end the war that broke out last year. The delegation is expected to meet Zelenskyy and his government in Kyiv followed by a meeting with Putin. Both Zelenskyy and Putin have welcomed African leaders’ mission to persuade Ukraine and Russia into talks to end the war.
References
“Kryvyi Rih again hit by Russian missiles, man injured,” Ukrinform, 15 June 2023
“Russia will lose the war if Ukraine's counteroffensive succeeds, Zelenskyy tells NBC News,” NBC News, 15 June 2023
“By supporting Ukraine, the world supports protection from war, because the source of aggression is outside our borders - Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address to the Federal Assembly and the people of the Swiss Confederation,” president.gov.ua, 15 June 2023
Alexander Khrebet, “Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian forces slowly advance east, south as counteroffensive ongoing,” The Kyiv Independent, 15 June 2023
“Russia announces elections in new regions,” RT News, 15 June 2023
“Russia’s economic future lies in Arctic, minister tells RT,” RT News, 15 June 2023
“Russia-Africa contacts ‘more intensive than ever’ – Putin,” RT News, 15 June 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 June 2023,” Twitter, 15 June 2023
“NATO Defence Ministers to address Ukraine support, deterrence and defence, investment,” nato.int, 14 June 2023
“NATO Secretary General: we must ensure Ukraine can defend itself now and in the future,” nato.int, 15 June 2023
Ministry of Defence and The Rt Hon Ben Wallace MP, “Joint statement by Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK, and the USA,” GOV.UK, 15 June 2023
“Parliament calls on NATO to invite Ukraine to join the alliance,” europarl.europa.eu, 15 June 2023
“African leaders kick off peace mission,” sanews.gov.za, 15 June 2023
In Brief
By Sneha Surendran and Melvin George
FINLAND
Petteri to head the four party coalition
On 15 June, Finland’s incoming Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that his National Coalition Party (NCP) was set to form a four-party coalition with the Finns Party, the Swedish Peoples Party (RKP) and the Christian Democrats. The far-right Finns Party had come second in the general elections that were held in April. Together, the four parties account for 108 out of 200 seats in the parliament. The coalition announcemnet comes after nearly 11 weeks of negotiations especially since the Finns and the RKP do not see eye-to-eye on topics of immigration, climate policies and public finances. With the formation of the coalition, Finland is on course for a switch to right-wing politics. (“Finland's conservatives to form coalition with far-right,” DW, 16 June 2023)
Trouble in the fishery industry
On 16 June, Daily Finland reported on the National Resources Institute Finland’s press release that the fisheries sector had recorded their lowest revenue collection in a decade. Still recovering from the pandemic and with a looming energy crisis, the year 2021 saw the net revenue for fisheries at Euros 836 million from 1765 companies. Out of these 1765 companies, 70 percent are fishing companies, within which a majority are small coastal companies. Fish processing (51 percent) and wholesalsale fish trade (26 percent) accounted for the maximum revenue. However, this still still falls short of EUR 20 million compared to the previous year, 2020. (“Fisheries sector posts decade-lowest revenue,” Daily Finland, 16 June 2023)
ICELAND
Increase in foreign nationals
On 15 June, Iceland Monitor reported an overall 7.8 percent increase in the population of foreign nationals in Iceland since the past 6 months. As of 1 June, 69593 people of foreign origin were registered as residents. There has been an increase in immigration into the country since 1 December 2022 with people coming in from Ukraine, Romania, Belarus and Poland. However, Icelandic citizens themselves have decreased by 5.3 percent, now comprising 82.3 percent of the population. (“Foreign nationals in Iceland increased by 7.8% in the last six months,” Iceland Monitor, 15 June 2023)
POLAND
Government to conduct referendum over EU’s migrants and refugees deal
On 15 June, Poland’s ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that a referendum has to be conducted over the EU deal on sharing the responsibility over migrants and refugees. Poland expressed its opposition to the deal in the lower house of the parliament. The deal says that countries that are not willing to host refugees and migrants would have to provide funding, equipment and personnel. Poland also opposed the quota system that attempts to relocate migrants referring to security concerns. (“Poland's Kaczynski says EU migrant deal must be put to referendum,” Reuters, 15 June 2023)
CLIMATE CHANGE
No clear winners for the Nature Restoration Regulation
On 15 June, Politico reported on the push and pull factor of the new legislation. The environment committee has contributed their vote agreeing on the Nature Restoration Regulation, which aimed to retain a 20 per cent blocs towards retaining a better natural state. At the same time, the EPP rejected the legislation and failed partially. Socialists blamed the right wing for always opposing the ecological transformation and pointed out the intense political situation. Various MEPs was put under the dilemma of whether to back or reject the bill. Each sides claimed victory, and the final plenary vote is expected to be held on 10 July. The current poll is tied, which indicates the possibility of the failure of the EPP. (Louise Guillot and Eddy Wax, “EU conservatives fail to kill nature restoration bill – for now,” Politico, 15 June 2023)
REGIONAL
EU hesitant to take measures against China in protecting its car industry
On 15 June, Politico reported on the increased pressure by France over the EU to probe a tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, while the EU is hesitant about this decision. EU is concerned about China’s turn towards the cheap vehicle market, which can affect the EU’s e-car production. The Internal Market Commissioner has urged the dumping investigation on electric cars. The ‘Buy China’ policies has disrupted the medical market; additionally, Brussels has been working on to the Chinese rail industries. The French Economy Ministry claimed the necessity to impose tariffs on Chinese cars to combat unfair trading practices. The EU has advised the e-car industry to win the car sector against China’s development. China has blocked the Baltic-Taiwan trade ties and can damage the EU’s heavy investments. Thus, this issue will soon be voiced at an EU leader’s summit. (Barbara Moens, Jakob Hanke Vela, Joshua Posaner, Hans Von Der Burchard, Giorgio Leali, and Camille Gijs, “France presses EU to declare trade war against China,” Politico, 15 June 2023)