The US-Iran War Daily Brief

TWT SPECIAL COVERAGE: THE US-IRAN WAR
Compiled by Rakshitha B, Rebecca Ann Oomen, Manik Dhawan
18 MAY 2026: DAY 79
Pakistan: Islamabad conveys a revised Iranian peace proposal to the US amid stalled war talks
On 18 May, Reuters reported that Islamabad has conveyed a revised Iranian peace proposal to the US in an effort to revive stalled negotiations over the war. Sources reported on Pakistan warning that time is running out as both sides continue shifting their demands. Later, Iran confirmed that Pakistan had conveyed its views to Washington. President Donald Trump warned Iran that “time is of the essence” and was expected to discuss possible renewed military action with advisers. Iran also warned it would respond strongly to any further attacks. Despite reduced hostilities, drone strikes linked to Iran have targeted Gulf states hosting US bases, including an attack that caused a fire at a UAE nuclear plant. Rising tensions have pushed oil prices sharply higher, worsening global inflation concerns.
(“Pakistan hands US revised Iranian proposal for ending war,” Reuters, 18 May 2026)

The UAE and Saudi Arabia report drone incidents; a strike causes a fire near the Barakah nuclear power plant
On 17 May, Reuters reported that a drone strike caused a fire near the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates during ongoing regional tensions linked to the Iran conflict. UAE officials said the drone hit an electrical generator outside the plant’s inner area, causing a small fire. Authorities confirmed that there were no injuries, no radiation leak, and no impact on the plant’s operations. UAE officials also said that two other drones were intercepted, while Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three drones that entered from Iraqi airspace. UAE authorities described the incident as a “terrorist attack” and said investigations were continuing to identify those responsible. No group had claimed responsibility at the time of reporting. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the nuclear plant remained safe and called for restraint around nuclear facilities. The incident took place during continuing tensions in the Gulf region and stalled diplomatic efforts related to the Iran conflict. Reports also noted that concerns over attacks on energy infrastructure contributed to an increase in global oil prices.
(“UAE and Saudi Arabia report drone incidents as Iran war deadlock drags on,” Reuters, 17 May 2026)

14 MAY 2026: DAY 75
Iran at BRICS: FM Araqchi urges BRICS states to condemn Israel-US violations of international law; Accuses the UAE of direct involvement in strikes against Tehran
On 14 May, The Hindu reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi urged BRICS states meeting in New Delhi to condemn what he called violations of international law by the United States and Israel during the ongoing Middle East conflict. Speaking at the BRICS+ foreign ministers’ gathering, Araqchi accused the United Arab Emirates of being directly involved in military actions against Iran. "I didn't name the UAE in my (BRICS) statement for the sake of unity. ⁠But the truth is that the UAE was directly involved in the aggression against my country,” he stated. The accusations follow Abu Dhabi’s denial of PM Netanyahu’s claim that he had visited the UAE during the war.
(Iran and UAE clash at BRICS foreign ministers' meeting,” The Hindu, 14 May 2026)

The Strait of Hormuz: Indian cargo vessel sinks from missile strike; agreement to allow Chinese vessels through the strait achieved, reports Fars News
On 14 May, Reuters reported that an Indian cargo vessel carrying livestock from Somalia to the United Arab Emirates was sunk in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman. All fourteen crew members were rescued by Omani coastguards and taken to Diba port. India's Ministry of External Affairs condemned the attack and called it “unacceptable.” India did not specify the nature of the attack, but the British maritime risk management group Vanguard stated that it involved an explosion believed to have been caused by a drone or missile strike. In addition, according to LSEG tracking data, a Panama-flagged crude oil tanker managed by the Japanese refining group Eneos passed through the Strait of Hormuz after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi directly contacted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to permit the ship’s transit. A large Chinese tanker also crossed on Wednesday, and Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that an agreement had been reached to allow some Chinese ships to pass.
(“New attacks hit ships near Hormuz as Trump discusses Iran with Xi, sources say,” Reuters 14 May 2026; “India says attack that sank Indian-flagged ship off Oman's coast 'unacceptable', sources say” Reuters 14 May 2026; “Second Japan-linked oil tanker sails via Strait of Hormuz as PM asks Iran to help out, sources say” Reuters 14 May 2026; “Iran allowing transit of Chinese vessels in Strait of Hormuz, Fars news reports, sources say” Reuters 14 May 2026)

13 MAY 2026: DAY 74
Degrading Iran’s nuclear programme outweighs Washington’s domestic economic concerns, asserts Trump
On 13 May, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that Americans’ financial struggles are not a factor in his decision-making as he seeks to negotiate an end to the war in Iran. As he departed from the White House for a trip to China, he claimed that preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is his top priority. These remarks have been highly scrutinized by those who argue that the administration should balance geopolitical objectives with the economic impact on Americans, especially ahead of the November midterm elections, as the rising cost of living remains a top concern for voters. Trump is under growing pressure from fellow Republicans, who fear that economic pain caused by the war could spark a backlash against the party and cost them the midterm elections, and potentially even control of the Senate. In remarks made before arriving in Beijing for a summit with President Xi Jinping, he also stated that he does not expect to need China’s help to end the war in Iran and ease Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration said on Tuesday that senior US and Chinese officials had agreed last month that no country should be able to charge tolls on traffic through the region, in an effort to project consensus on the issue ahead of the summit. China, a major buyer of Iranian oil and a close ally of Tehran, did not dispute that account. However, in his remarks, Trump downplayed China's role in resolving the conflict.
("Trump says stopping Iran's nuclear program outweighs Americans' economic pain, source says," Reuters, 13 May 2026; "Trump says no need for China's help on Iran as shippers seek passage through Hormuz, sources say," Reuters, 13 May 2026)

Iraq and Pakistan reach energy agreements with Iran
On 12 May, Reuters reported that Iraq and Pakistan have reached deals with Iran to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf. This is due to the sharp decline in Gulf exports, and reduced vessel traffic through the strait to around 5 per cent caused by the war. Iraq is seeking Iranian approval for additional tanker movements, as 95 per cent of its government revenue relies on oil. On the other hand, Pakistan has arranged for Qatari LNG cargoes to transit the strait to meet peak summer power demand. Although Iran has not been paid directly, Tehran is now requesting detailed documentation of each ship, underscoring its tightening operational control over the strategic shipping lane.
(“Iraq, Pakistan strike energy deals with Iran as Tehran flexes Hormuz control,” Reuters, 12 May 2026)

Saudi Arabia launched covert strikes on Iran before de-escalation, reports Reuters
On 12 May, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia carried out covert airstrikes on Iran in late March. Reports suggest that this move was in retaliation for Iranian missile and drone attacks. The strikes reportedly marked the Saudi military's first known direct action on Iranian soil. It further indicates Riyadh’s growing readiness to respond independently rather than rely solely on the US’s protection. In addition, these assaults prompted heavy negotiations and warnings of further strikes, eventually leading to a tacit truce between the two antagonists.
(“Saudi Arabia launched covert attacks on Iran as regional war widened, sources say,” Reuters, 12 May 2026)

Lebanon: Israeli attacks kill civilians, including two children
On 13 May, Reuters reported that the health ministry of Lebanon confirmed that twelve people were killed by a series of Israeli strikes on cars in Lebanon as the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel continued despite a US-mediated ceasefire announced last month. Israel’s attack on Wednesday included three drone strikes, around 20 kilometers south of Beirut. According to the health ministry, eight people perished, including two children, and a fourth strike killed one person near the southern city of Sidon. Three more people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on cars in three locations further south in the Tyre district. The Israeli military stated it was striking Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and told residents to leave nine towns and villages where it intended to act against the group.
(“Israeli strikes kill 12 in Lebanon ahead of US-mediated talks,” Reuters, 13 May 2026)

12 MAY 2026: DAY 73
US-Iran War: President Trump rejects Iran's response; says ceasefire is “on life support”
On 12 May, the BBC reported on President Trump rejecting Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “garbage” and stating that Tehran was making demands that were “unacceptable.” Speaking to reporters, Trump said the ceasefire process was “on life support” and warned that the United States would continue military and economic pressure if Iran failed to change its position. He also stated that Washington would not accept any agreement that allowed Iran to threaten shipping routes or maintain what he described as destabilising regional activities. According to media reports, Iran’s proposal included demands for an end to hostilities across the region, lifting of the US naval blockade, compensation for war damages, and guarantees against future attacks. President Trump dismissed the conditions and said the United States would “never reward aggression.” The remarks came as international mediation efforts have continued, but no breakthrough has been announced following the latest exchange between Washington and Tehran.
("Trump says Iran's ceasefire is on 'massive life support," BBC, 12 May 2026)

Iran: Tehran expands definition of Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war, reports Reuters
On 12 May, Reuters reported that Iran has expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz to encompass a vast operational area, significantly wider than before the war commenced. A statement by Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political director of the IRGC Navy, stated that, “The strait is no longer viewed as a narrow stretch around a handful of islands but instead has been greatly enlarged in scope and military significance. In the past, the Strait of Hormuz was defined as a limited area around islands such as Hormuz and Hengam, but today this view has changed.” As per Iranian news agencies Fars and Tasnim, the strait’s width which was previously reported to be around 20 to 30 miles, has now been increased to between 200 and 300 miles.
(“Iran now defines Strait of Hormuz as far larger zone, IRGC officer says,” Reuters, 12 May 2026)

Iran: Tehran says it is ready for “any aggression”
On 12 May, Al Jazeera reported on Iran warning that it was prepared for “any aggression” amid continuing tensions with the United States and uncertainty surrounding ceasefire negotiations. Iran's officials stated that the country’s armed forces remained on high alert and would respond decisively to any renewed attacks. The warning came a day after President Trump rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “garbage” and saying the ceasefire was “on life support.” Iran has insisted on conditions including the lifting of the US naval blockade, compensation for war damages, and guarantees against future attacks. Meanwhile, Washington has continued military and economic pressure, while also imposing new sanctions targeting Iranian oil shipments to China.
("Tehran says ready for ‘aggression," Al Jazeera, 12 May 2026)

US sanctions Chinese firms over Iranian oil shipments
On 12 May, Reuters reported that the United States had imposed fresh sanctions targeting Chinese companies and vessels accused of facilitating Iranian oil exports to China. The sanctions, announced by the US Treasury Department, focused on entities involved in transporting and purchasing Iranian crude despite existing restrictions. Washington stated that the measures were intended to disrupt Tehran’s revenue networks amid the continuing US-Iran war and ongoing tensions over Iran’s regional activities and nuclear programme. According to US officials, the sanctioned firms were linked to shipments routed through intermediary networks designed to obscure the origin of Iranian oil. The measures also targeted several shipping operators and tankers accused of helping Iran evade sanctions through ship-to-ship transfers and concealed transactions. Beijing criticised unilateral sanctions and reiterated its opposition to measures not authorised by the United Nations.
("US issues new sanctions over Iran's oil shipments to China," Reuters, 12 May 2026)

11 MAY 2026: DAY 72
US-Iran War: Trump rejects Iran's peace proposal response as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”; Netanyahu says the war would continue until Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and regional proxies are addressed
On 10 May, Reuters reported that President Trump rejected Iran’s response to a US peace proposal, calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” in Truth Social. It dimmed hopes for a swift end to the 10-week conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and driven up global energy prices. Iran’s proposal, sent to Washington through Pakistan, called for an end to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, the lifting of US sanctions, an end to the US naval blockade, compensation for war damage, guarantees against further attacks, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Iranian media stated Tehran also sought recognition of an Iranian role in managing security in the Strait of Hormuz if Washington made unspecified commitments. The US proposal had sought a halt to hostilities before talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war would continue until Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and regional proxies were addressed, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would not “bow down to the enemy.”
(“US-Iran stalemate lifts oil prices as Hormuz closure persists,” Reuters, 11 May 2026)

The Strait of Hormuz: South Korean, Qatari and Pakistan-linked vessels successfully transit despite regional tensions
On 10-11 May, Reuters reported that oil tankers and LNG vessels continued to travel through the Strait of Hormuz despite rising tensions in the Gulf region. Some oil tankers reportedly turned off their tracking systems while passing through the strait due to fears of attacks and security threats linked to ongoing Iran-related tensions. During this period, a South Korean cargo ship and another bulk carrier near Qatar were hit by unidentified objects in separate incidents. South Korea strongly criticised the attack on its vessel and said it would take steps to protect its ships operating in the region. Despite these incidents, Qatari LNG tankers carrying gas to Pakistan continued to move through the Strait, showing that commercial shipping in the area is still active. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s busiest routes for oil and gas transport, and governments and shipping companies are closely monitoring the situation.
(“UKMTO says bulk carrier hit by unknown projectile near Qatar,” Reuters, 10 May 2026; “South Korean ship in Strait of Hormuz hit by unidentified object,” Reuters, 10 May 2026; “Two more crude oil tankers exit Strait of Hormuz with trackers switched off,” Reuters, 10 May 2026; “Second Qatari LNG tanker heads through Hormuz as Pakistan-Iran war continues,” Reuters, 11 May 2026; “South Korea condemns attack on cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz, vows response,” Reuters, 11 May 2026).

Iran: Supreme Leader Khamenei briefs military chief on new guidelines; Officials maintain there is no oil spill around the Kharg island
On 10 May, Reuters reported that the head of Iran’s armed forces met the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khameini. As per Fars news, the head of the armed forces received "new guiding measures to pursue military operations and firmly confront adversaries,” from Khameini. According to the same news agency, Ali Abdollahi, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, briefed Khamenei on the armed forces' preparedness. Abdollahi was reportedly quoted as saying, "The armed forces are ready to confront ?any action by the American-Zionist (Israeli) enemies. In case of any ?error by the enemy, Iran's response will be swift, ?severe, and decisive.” On 10 May, Reuters also reported on Iran’s denial of an oil leak near the Kharg island. Iran’s Oil Terminals Company denied reports of an oil leak near the Kharg ‌Island, and the company’s chief executive said that there have been inspections, but no evidence of leaks from storage tanks, pipelines, loading facilities or tankers operating near the island had been found. The official also maintained that Iranian teams conducted additional inspections and that “even the smallest trace” of a spill was not found.
(“Iran's Supreme Leader briefs military chief on 'new guiding measures', Fars agency says,” Reuters, 10 May 2026; “Iran denies reports of oil leak near Kharg Island export hub,” Reuters, 10 May 2026)

Reuters reports on Iranian drone attacks across the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar
On 10 May, Reuters reported that new drone-related incidents across the Gulf involving the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar reflect persisting tensions linked to the Iran conflict. The UAE’s Defence Ministry stated that its air defences dealt with two drones approaching from Iran. The incident occurred four weeks after reduced tensions following the US-announced ceasefire. Iran has denied involvement in the attacks on the UAE and warned that it would give a strong response if the UAE initiates further action against Tehran. Earlier tensions in the region caused the UAE to shift schools to remote learning, though classes were set to return to normal. Kuwait’s army stated that it detected and dealt with several hostile drones over its airspace early on 10 May, following earlier drone-related incidents that targeted border posts during the conflict. Simultaneously, Qatar's Defence Ministry said that a cargo vessel travelling from Abu Dhabi was hit by a drone near Mesaieed port, which led to a small fire that was later brought under control without any injuries. Meanwhile, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that another vessel near Doha had been struck by an unidentified projectile. These latest incidents show that security risks continue across the Gulf despite the ceasefire.
(Qatar says cargo vessel coming from Abu Dhabi attacked in its waters,” Reuters, 10 May 2026; “Kuwait's army says it has intercepted hostile drones over airspace,” Reuters, 10 May 2026; “UAE says air defences dealt with two drones coming from Iran,” Reuters, 10 May 2026)

Israel: Tel Aviv established an undisclosed military base in Iraq linked to the Iran conflict, claims a Wall Street Journal report
On 09 May, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had set up a secret military outpost in Iraq’s western desert during its conflict with Iran. According to US officials and sources familiar with the matter, the base served as a logistical hub for the Israeli Air Force. It included special forces and rescue teams prepared for operations. The report stated that the facility was established shortly before the war began and operated with US awareness. The report also stated that a local shepherd informed the Iraqi authorities about unusual helicopter activity in the region, which led to its discovery. Iraqi troops later travelled towards the site to investigate, but Israeli forces reportedly launched airstrikes to stop them from advancing, which led to deaths and injuries. Iraq blamed the US for the attack, criticised it, and filed a complaint against it at the UN. The report claims that the outpost helped Israel carry out long-range operations against Iran more efficiently during the five-week war.
(“Israel Built and Defended a Secret Iran War Base in Iraq,” The Wall Street Journal, 09 May 2026)

09 MAY 2026: DAY 71
The US proposal: As Washington awaits Tehran’s response, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi says, "Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure."
On 09 May, Reuters reported that the US is currently awaiting Iran's response to its latest proposals to end the conflict and begin peace talks. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 08 May that the US expected Iran to respond within hours. Iran has not responded so far. There were also clashes between US Navy vessels and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz on 08 May. The US military stated that it struck two vessels linked to Iran, which were attempting to enter an Iranian port. It said that a US fighter jet forced them to turn back. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said: "Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure." The US also imposed sanctions on ten individuals and companies, including several based in China and Hong Kong, for aiding Iran's military by supplying weapons and materials used to build drones. The US Treasury Department said that it could sanction any foreign companies and financial institutions supporting Iran, including those connected to Chinese oil refineries.
("US, Iran no closer to ending war as Tehran's response awaited," Reuters, 09 May 2026)

Lebanon: Israeli attacks continue, killing 17 in southern Lebanon
On 08-09 May, Al Jazeera reported that the Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon killed at least 17 people despite a US-backed ceasefire. The strikes hit areas near the Lebanon-Israel border as the fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah continued. Lebanese officials and local reports said that the civilians were also among those who were killed and injured. Israel said the attacks targeted Hezbollah positions and military sites. (“Iran war live: Israel kills 17 in Lebanon as US awaits Iran’s reply to deal,” Al Jazeera, 09 May 2026; “More than a dozen reported killed in Israeli attacks on south Lebanon,” Al Jazeera, 08 May 2026)

Strait of Hormuz: London and Paris deploy naval forces in anticipation of a defensive operation; The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio critiques the lack of support from Italy
On 09 May, the Independent reported that the United Kingdom is deploying its vessel HMS Dragon to the Middle East. This is in anticipation of a possible safeguarding mission in the Strait of Hormuz. It is also led by France, where the warship is to “pre-position” itself and prepare itself to contribute once the hostilities have ceased. On 08 May, Reuters reported that the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni. Following the meeting, Rubio noted that the US allies, including Italy, were hesitant to help Washington confront Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio was quoted on the same, stating, "I don't ‌understand why anybody would not be supportive."
(“Rubio questions allies' support on Iran following Italy talks,” Reuters, 08 May 2026.
“Iran-US war latest: UK sends destroyer back to Middle East while Trump awaits Tehran’s response to peace plan,” Independent, 09 May 2026)

08 MAY 2026: DAY 69-70
The US-Iran War: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restore base and airspace access to the US
On 07 May, The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on the US military's access to their bases and airspace following high-level discussions between US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The decision comes after the US paused Project Freedom, an effort to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This operation relied heavily on support from the Gulf, but Saudi Arabia objected to providing any support, fearing escalation with Iran. Reuters reported that the US sanctioned Iraq's deputy oil minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, along with militias, for allegedly supporting Iran.
("US targets Iraq oil official and militias with sanctions for aiding Iran," Reuters, 7 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-sanctions-iraqs-deputy-oil-minister-militias-over-iran-support-2026-05-07/
"Gulf States Lift Restrictions That Blocked ‘Project Freedom’ in Strait of Hormuz," Wall Street Journal, 7 May 2026
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-kuwait-lift-restrictions-on-u-s-military-access-to-bases-airspace-8504c830?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos2)

UAE oil tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz
On 07 May, Reuters reported that the UAE and buyers of crude oil have sailed oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz despite the ongoing tensions. According to sources, this was done to move the oil still available in the Middle East in large quantities, but it hasn’t moved due to the conflict. However, the current movement is reported to be only a fraction of what was exported before the conflict started, underscoring the risks traders and buyers are willing to take to move the oil in high demand.
(“Exclusive: Hungry to sell, UAE slips hidden oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, Reuters, 07 May 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hungry-sell-uae-slips-hidden-oil-tankers-through-strait-hormuz-2026-05-07/)

Lebanon: Israel strikes Beirut for the first time since the ceasefire; Targets Hezbollah commander
On 07 May, Reuters reported that the Israeli military targeted a Hezbollah commander in its strikes in Southern Beirut. This has been the first strike from Israel since a ceasefire was declared last month. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that there is no immunity for Israel’s ‘enemies.’ Israel has stated that the commander belonged to the Iran-backed Radwan force. Hezbollah, which is reported to have control over the South of Beirut, is yet to issue a statement on this strike.
(“After Beirut strike, Netanyahu says 'no immunity' for militants,” Reuters, 07 May 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-says-it-killed-hezbollah-commander-first-strike-beirut-since-ceasefire-2026-05-07/)

06 MAY 2026: DAY 68
US–Iran ceasefire deal gains momentum; New framework hints at removal of Tehran’s enriched Uranium, says CNN
On 07 May, CNN reported that the United States and Iran are edging closer to a potential ceasefire agreement, with both sides reviewing a draft one-page memorandum to end the ongoing conflict in the Gulf. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the proposed framework would formally declare a halt to hostilities while initiating a 30-day window for further talks on unresolved issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic push has gained momentum in recent days, with Pakistan playing a key mediating role by facilitating communication between Washington and Tehran. US officials have expressed cautious optimism, noting that previous negotiations have collapsed at critical moments. The proposed deal is expected to include provisions such as a temporary halt on uranium enrichment and the removal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, though specifics remain under discussion. US President Donald Trump has emphasized diplomacy as the preferred path forward, even announcing a pause in certain military-linked operations to support negotiations. Iran has indicated it will respond soon, raising hopes that a ceasefire could be within reach if both sides agree on the core terms.
("US and Iran moving toward memo aimed at ending war,” CNN, 06 May 2026,
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/06/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-strait-of-hormuz)

The Strait of Hormuz: US and Bahrain table UNSC resolution; A second UAE LNG vessel crosses the Strait
On 05 May, Reuters reported that the United States and Bahrain have tabled a revised UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran halt attacks and remove threats to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while avoiding explicit authorization of force to reduce the risk of Chinese and Russian vetoes. Secretary of State Rubio was quoted on the same, stating, “Everyone wouldn't want to see this vetoed again, and we've made some slight adjustments to the language, I don't know if it will avoid a veto or not, I think it's a real test to the UN as something that functions.” Washington is also simultaneously rallying allies behind a proposed “Maritime Freedom Construct” to secure commercial shipping through the chokepoint. The diplomatic push comes as renewed Gulf tensions continue to disrupt global energy flows and test the fragile regional ceasefire. On 06 May, Reuters also reported on a CMA CGM container ship that was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, injuring eight crew members. The attack, reportedly caused by an Iranian projectile, forced medical evacuations and further disrupted traffic through the strategic waterway, where shipping has largely stalled. In addition, Reuters reported that a second ADNOC-managed LNG tanker had crossed the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing US-Iran tensions. Ship-tracking data showed the tanker Mraweh near Indonesia after going dark in April, suggesting a covert transit similar to that of an earlier ADNOC vessel. Analysts say evasive navigation tactics remain common as regional instability persists, though the crossing offers tentative signs that some Gulf energy flows may be gradually resuming despite continued maritime risks.
(“Rubio calls Hormuz resolution test for UN, urges against vetoes,” Reuters, 06 May 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-bahrain-push-un-backed-action-hormuz-washington-seeks-maritime-coalition-2026-05-05/
“CMA CGM vessel attacked in Strait of Hormuz as shipping halted by US-Iran war,” Reuters, 06 May 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/cma-cgm-container-ship-hit-strait-hormuz-injuring-crew-2026-05-06/
“Second ADNOC LNG tanker crosses Strait of Hormuz amid Iran war, ship-tracking data shows,” Reuters, 06 May 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/second-adnoc-lng-tanker-crosses-strait-hormuz-amid-iran-war-ship-tracking-data-2026-05-06/ )

China and Iran: FM Araqchi visits Beijing ahead of meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping
On 06 May, Reuters reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing, ahead of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Iran's foreign ministry said that Mr Araqchi briefed Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Iran's talks with the US. He said that Iran will do its best to protect its rights and interests while negotiating with the US. China's foreign ministry said that the regional situation was at a critical juncture while calling for a cessation of hostilities. Beijing further urged all parties to restore secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. China also acknowledged Iran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy. Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to persuade Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said that President Trump will discuss Iran with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping in Beijing on 14–15 May.
("Iran foreign minister meets Chinese counterpart a week before Trump's Beijing trip," Reuters, 06 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-foreign-minister-kicks-off-meeting-with-iranian-counterpart-2026-05-06/)

05 MAY 2026: DAY 67
The US-Iran War: Washington says ceasefire is in place despite renewed hostilities
On 04 May, Reuters reported that the United States and Iran had launched new missile and drone attacks as both sides escalated efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a fragile ceasefire. Washington’s “Project Freedom” seeks to reopen the strategic waterway for stranded commercial vessels, but the initiative has triggered retaliatory Iranian strikes, including attacks on shipping and UAE energy infrastructure. The renewed hostilities have heightened fears of broader regional escalation, disrupted maritime trade, and added fresh pressure to global oil markets already strained by prolonged instability.

On 05 May, Reuters also reported that Washington said the fragile ceasefire remains in place despite an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz during US naval operations to escort commercial vessels. Washington stated that “Project Freedom” had secured limited passage through the strategic waterway, while Iran accused Washington of violating truce terms. On the same day, the US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was quoted as saying, "We're not looking for a fight, Right now the ceasefire certainly holds, but we're going to be watching very, very closely."
(“US says Iran ceasefire holds despite exchange of fire in Gulf,” Reuters, 05 May 2026)
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/middle-east-truce-doubt-us-iran-fight-control-strait-hormuz-2026-05-05/
“US and Iran launch new attacks as they wrestle for control of Gulf waters,” Reuters, 04 May 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-help-ships-stranded-strait-hormuz-tanker-hit-by-projectiles-2026-05-04/)

Strait of Hormuz: US and the Arab states to push for a UNSC resolution
On 05 May, Reuters reported that Washington and Gulf Arab countries are drafting a UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran for obstructing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The resolution is co-drafted with Bahrain and supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. It would push Iran to cease attacks on merchant shipping and disclose the locations of sea mines. The US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, described it as a “narrower effort” focused on disruptions to global trade and said negotiations would take place this week after an earlier resolution was blocked by Russia and China. The draft, under Chapter VII, could lead to sanctions if Iran fails to comply, while also calling for a humanitarian corridor through the strait. It appears to form part of a broader US strategy to increase diplomatic pressure and plan for post-conflict arrangements. Simultaneously, Washington has proposed a multinational Maritime Freedom Construct, which aims to secure navigation and coordination through a Franco-British mission involving around 30 countries. This move follows renewed clashes, including US strikes on Iranian boats and missile attacks on a UAE oil port, which have affected the ceasefire. Reuters also reported that South Korea is reviewing whether to join US-led navigation efforts after an explosion on a Korean-operated vessel, HMM Namu in the strait. While Trump blamed Iran for the incident, Seoul said the cause remains under investigation. South Korea emphasised that “freedom of navigation should be protected under international law.” Authorities confirmed no casualties, but the 26 South Korean vessels stranded in the region highlight the growing risk to shipping routes.
("US, Gulf Arab nations draft new UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz," Reuters, 04 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-gulf-arab-nations-draft-new-un-resolution-strait-hormuz-2026-05-04/
"US and Bahrain push UN-backed action for Hormuz as Washington seeks maritime coalition," Reuters, 05 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-bahrain-push-un-backed-action-hormuz-washington-seeks-maritime-coalition-2026-05-05/
"Seoul reviews Trump's Hormuz navigation plan after explosion on Korean-operated ship," Reuters, 05 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-probe-ship-fire-strait-hormuz-trump-blames-iranian-attack-2026-05-05/)

Iran-UAE tensions: Abu Dhabi restricts airspace after Iranian missile and drone strikes
On 05 May, Reuters reported that the UAE imposed airspace restrictions after an Iranian missile and drone attack. The UAE's Ministry of Defence said that its air defence systems engaged 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones launched from Iran. The emirate of Fujairah said an Iranian drone sparked a large fire at the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone, which injured three Indian citizens. India's Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement that this attack on Fujairah was unacceptable and called for the immediate cessation of hostilities and targeting of civilian infrastructure. The UAE restricted flights to only a select number of approved routes until at least 11 May. It also activated emergency security protocols, according to Notices to Air Men (NOTAMs) published by its General Civil Aviation Authority. Multiple flights were also diverted to Saudi Arabia and Oman after the UAE said that its air defences were engaging Iranian drones and missiles.
("UAE restricts airspace after Iranian missile, drone attack," Reuters, 05 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-restricts-airspace-after-iranian-missile-drone-attack-2026-05-05/
"Official Spokesperson’s statement on the attack on Fujairah," India's Ministry of External Affairs, 05 May 2026
https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/41100)

Iran’s nuclear programme: Tehran’s nuclear stockpiles and enriched uranium largely intact and weapons development timeline unchanged, says Reuters, referring to the US intelligence assessments
On 05 May, Reuters reported that the US intelligence assessments indicate that two months of US-Israeli strikes have only caused limited additional damage to Iran’s nuclear program, with Tehran’s estimated timeline to develop a nuclear weapon remaining broadly unchanged at up to one year. While key enrichment facilities were previously degraded, Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains largely intact and unverified. The findings suggest that military actions targeting conventional assets have done little to significantly delay Iran’s nuclear capabilities, reinforcing calls within Washington for a negotiated resolution.
(“Exclusive: US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran's nuclear program, sources say, Reuters, 05 May 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-intelligence-indicates-)

02 MAY 2026: DAY 64
US: The Trump administration circumvents the Congressional approval for arms sales worth USD 8.6 billion for allies in the Middle East
On May 02, Reuters reported that the Trump administration was bypassing the US Congressional review for military sales of over USD 8.6 billion for its allies in the Middle East, including Israel, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait. Marc Rubio, the US Secretary of State, stated that “An emergency existed that required immediate sales to those countries and waived the congressional review requirements for the sales.”
(“US bypasses congressional review for military sales of $8.6 billion to Middle East allies,” Reuters, 02 May 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-approves-military-sales-over-86-billion-middle-east-allies-2026-05-01/)

Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Tehran wants to postpone nuclear negotiations later, while Trump insists Iran will not develop nuclear weapons
On 02 May, Reuters reported that Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease maritime disruptions has been rejected by President Trump, with Tehran suggesting that nuclear negotiations be postponed to a later stage. The proposal aimed to end the ongoing conflict by ensuring that the US and Israel would halt further attacks, while Iran would reopen the strait and the US would lift its blockade. However, Washington has maintained that any agreement must first guarantee that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, tensions have intensified over maritime actions. Trump described US naval operations enforcing the blockade as “like pirates,” followed by the seizure of Iranian-linked vessels. The situation continues to drive uncertainty in energy markets and delay diplomatic resolution.
(“Iranian proposal rejected by Trump would open strait before nuclear talks, Iran official says,” Reuters, 02 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-proposal-rejected-by-trump-would-open-strait-before-nuclear-talks-iran-2026-05-02/
“Trump says US Navy acting 'like pirates' to carry out naval blockade of Iranian ports,” Reuters, 02 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-us-navy-acting-like-pirates-carry-out-naval-blockade-iranian-ports-2026-05-02)

US and Germany: Washington announces troop withdrawal from Germany
On 01 May, Reuters reported that the US announced it would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, marking a reduction in its military presence in Europe amid growing tensions with NATO allies over the Iran conflict. The Pentagon said the withdrawal would take place over six to twelve months, bringing troop levels closer to those before the 2022 buildup following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decision follows a public disagreement between US President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. German officials had criticised the US approach to the Iran war, prompting Washington to describe recent German remarks as “inappropriate and unhelpful Germany currently hosts around 35,000 US troops, making it the largest American military base in Europe. The withdrawal is expected to include a brigade combat team and the cancellation of planned deployments, including a long-range fires battalion. The move reflects broader tensions between the US and its European allies, with Washington urging NATO members to increase defence contributions and support operations to secure key routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz. Officials indicated that further troop reductions in countries such as Spain and Italy remain under consideration as part of a wider reassessment of U.S. military posture in Europe.
(“US withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany, US officials say,” Reuters, May 2 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-withdrawing-5000-troops-germany-us-officials-say-2026-05-01/)

01 MAY 2026: DAY 63
Iran presents a new proposal; UAE official says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz
On 01 May, Reuters reported that UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said that Iran could not be trusted to make unilateral arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. Gargash, highlighting the interests of the Gulf states, said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the Strait. He further added that no unilateral arrangement by Iran could be trusted following its "treacherous aggression against all its neighbors." Iran also sent a new proposal for negotiations with the United States to Pakistani mediators which led to a drop in oil prices. The Iranian state news agency gave no details of this proposal. According to reports, US President Trump was briefed on plans for new military strikes to force Iran to negotiate. In response, Iran has activated air defences and plans a wider retaliation.
("Iran sends proposal for negotiations with US to mediator Pakistan," Reuters, 01 May 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/uae-says-iran-cannot-be-trusted-over-hormuz-peace-efforts-an-impasse-2026-05-01/)

Iran’s President and Parliamentary Speaker seek Foreign Minister Araqchi’s ouster over ties with the IRGC leadership, reports Iran International; Speaker Ghalibaf accuses Trump of exploiting internal divisions to force “surrender”
On 01 May, Iran International, in an exclusive report, stated that Iran’s president and parliament speaker are reportedly seeking the removal of Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, accusing him of following directives from the Revolutionary Guard Commander Ahmad Vahidi during nuclear negotiations without informing the presidency. President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf expressed disagreements over the conduct of the war and its damaging impact on livelihoods and the economy. The report also highlighted the president's frustration over the “complete political deadlock” and had been stripped of the authority to appoint replacements for officials killed during the conflict. According to the report, Ahmad Vahidi argued that, given the wartime situation, all key and sensitive positions should be directly controlled by the Revolutionary Guards.

On 30 April, CNN reported that Speaker Ghalibaf had accused President Trump of attempting to force Iran into “surrender” through economic pressure and by exploiting internal divisions. Ghalibaf accused Iran’s adversaries of trying to weaken the country from within through “siege tactics and media manipulation.” He urged public unity as the main defence against what he called a new “conspiracy,” saying “every divisive action is part of the enemy’s plan” and that officials remain aligned with the supreme leader. He did not specify the nature of the divisions.
(“Pezeshkian, Ghalibaf seek Araghchi’s ouster over 'subservience' to Guards,” Iran International, 01 May 2026.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604302117
“Iran’s Ghalibaf urges unity amid divisions, says Trump seeks surrender,” CNN, 30 April 2026
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/29/world/live-news/iran-war-peace-proposal-trump?post-id=cmokizwfv00003b6qtqomi3jr)

The Trump administration cites the April ceasefire to counter the War Powers Resolution at the 60-day deadline
On 01 March, Reuters reported that senior Trump officials argued that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in April and the subsequent suspension of hostilities bypasses the 01 May deadline on achieving congressional approval for the US-Israel war against Iran. "For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28, have terminated," said the official.

The War Powers Resolution is a federal law passed in 1973 to limit the president’s ability to engage the US forces in armed conflict without congressional approval. Enacted in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, it requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops and prohibits forces from continuing hostilities for more than 60 days, with a possible 30-day withdrawal period, unless Congress authorizes the action or declares war. The act aims to ensure that war-time decisions are in line with the Constitution’s division of war powers where only the Congress declares war and the president serves as Commander-in-Chief.

In the US-Israel war against Iran which began on 28 February, the deadline was set to expire on 01 May. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers at a Senate hearing with the ceasefire in place, the “60-day clock pauses, or stops.”
(“US official says Iran war truce 'terminated' hostilities for war powers deadline,” Reuters, 01 May 2026,
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/war-powers-resolution-purposes-us-hostilities-with-iran-that-began-february-have-2026-05-01/)

US Navy awards USD 99 million contract to AI firm to accelerate mine detection in the Strait of Hormuz
On 01 May, Reuters reported that the US Navy is accelerating its AI capabilities to track and remove mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy has awarded a USD 99 million contract to San Francisco based artificial intelligence company Domino Data Lab to develop software that can train underwater drones to identify new types of mines. The project is central to the Navy’s Project AMMO - Accelerated Machine Learning for Maritime Operations - a program to make underwater mine detection faster, more accurate, and less dependent on human sailors. “The Navy is paying for the platform that lets it train, govern, and field that AI at a speed required for contested waters,” said Domino's CEO, Thomas Robinson. Prior to the initiative, updating AI models for the navy’s unmanned underwater vehicles to detect new or previously unseen mines could take up to six months; Domino says it has reduced that timeline to just days.
(“US Navy turns to AI firm Domino for options to counter Iranian mines,” Reuters, 01 May 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-navy-turns-ai-firm-domino-options-counter-iranian-mines-2026-05-01/)

Lebanon: Division among top officials hindering Saudi mediation efforts
On 30 April, Reuters reported that a growing divide between top Lebanese officials has hindered Saudi Arabia's efforts to help Lebanon have a united position over negotiations with Israel. Riyadh has deepened its engagement with Beirut in recent days after Hezbollah was severely weakened by Israel in 2024. The US had hoped that the recent truce between Israel and Lebanon would lead to direct negotiations on a peace agreement. However, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri are divided over the format and objectives of the negotiations. President Aoun supports direct talks with Israel and has expressed desire for permanent peace agreements. Berri, who is a Hezbollah ally, opposes direct talks with Israel and supports a non-aggression pact instead of a complete peace agreement. Last week, Saudi envoy Prince Yazid bin Farhan visited Beirut to help Lebanese leaders find common ground. However, tensions between Aoun and Berri derailed Saudi plans to organise a meeting between Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, President Aoun and Berri this week.
("Lebanon's internal splits over talks with Israel trip up Saudi mediation efforts," Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-internal-splits-over-talks-with-israel-trip-up-saudi-mediation-efforts-2026-04-30/)

30 APRIL 2026: DAY 62
Tehran threatens to retaliate as tensions increase oil prices; Washington calls for a global coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz
On 30 April, Reuters reported that Iran has warned of a “long and painful” strike if the US resumes attacks, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz persist. Oil prices have surged amid stalled talks and continued supply disruptions. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said new management of the Strait of Hormuz would bring stability and economic benefits. Iran's Supreme Leader stated Tehran ‌will secure the Gulf region and curb what he believed is "the enemy's abuses of the waterway.” On 29 April, Reuters also reported that the United States is urging its allies to form a coalition to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz amid stalled efforts to resolve the conflict. Oil prices have surged on supply fears, with tensions escalating as negotiations remain deadlocked.
(“Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz 'will bring calm’,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-says-new-phase-taking-shape-gulf-strait-2026-04-30/
“Iran threatens painful response if US resumes attacks, oil prices seesaw,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-seeks-international-help-reopen-strait-hormuz-crude-prices-surge-2026-04-30/
“US seeks international help to reopen Strait of Hormuz as crude prices surge,” Reuters, 29 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-urges-iran-sign-deal-after-report-suggests-us-may-extend-blockade-2026-04-29/)

The Iran war has cost USD 25 billion so far, reveals Pentagon
On 29 April, Reuters reported that the US war with Iran has cost USD 25 billion according to a senior Pentagon official. This is the first official estimate of the USA's expenditure on the conflict. Jules Hurst informed the House Armed Services Committee that most of this money was spent on munitions. Jules did not provide details on what the estimate included and whether the cost of repairing damaged US bases was included. Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said he was glad to receive this information after repeated requests. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that this cost was justified because the American objective was to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. He attacked Democrats for their stance on the Iran war, which he according to him, hands propaganda to the enemies of the US.
("US war in Iran has cost $25 billion so far, says Pentagon official," Reuters, 29 April 2026.) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-war-iran-has-cost-25-billion-so-far-says-pentagon-official-2026-04-29/)

Oil prices retreat after hitting a four-year high
On 30 April, Reuters reported that global oil prices had surged above USD 126 per barrel, the highest since 2022 on fears of escalating US-Iran conflict and a threat of prolonged supply disruptions, before retreating amid heightened market volatility. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 per cent of global oil flows, has sharply constrained the existing supply. Analysts have noted that extreme price swings reflect the uncertainty over potential US military action and stalled negotiations. Sustained volatility is therefore expected due to fuel global inflation, raise fuel costs, and weigh on economic growth.
(“Oil retreats after hitting four-year high on concern of US-Iran war escalation,” Reuters, 30 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-retreats-after-hitting-four-year-high-concern-us-iran-war-escalation-2026-04-30/)

Lebanon: Israel intensifies attacks on south Lebanon despite ceasefire; Nine civilians killed and evacuation alerts issued to eight towns
On 30 April, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed nine civilians as Tel Aviv intensified artillery shelling in the region. The attacks were launched despite a three-week extension to the US-mediated ceasefire with Lebanon. The Israeli Defence Forces also warned residents ‌of eight towns outside of the "buffer zone" to evacuate their homes immediately ahead of strikes. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz threatened that Lebanon’s fate will be like Gaza’s, despite the ceasefire agreement. Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun decried the “continuing Israeli violations” in southern Lebanon, highlighting that they were launched “despite the ceasefire, as do demolitions of homes and places of worship, while the number of killed and wounded rises day after day”. “Pressure must be exerted on Israel to ensure it respects international laws and conventions and ceases targeting civilians, paramedics, civil defence, and humanitarian health and relief organisations,” he added.
(“Israel kills nine people in southern Lebanon despite ‘ceasefire’.” Al Jazeera, 30 April 2026.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/israel-kills-nine-people-in-southern-lebanon-despite-ceasefire)

28 APRIL 2026: DAY 60
Tehran proposes Hormuz reopening as talks stall over nuclear issue; Iran, in a “State of Collapse,” wants Washington to open the Strait of Hormuz, claims Trump
On 28 April, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz conditionally, in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade. However, there is also a proposal to negotiate its nuclear programme. The proposal, conveyed via Islamabad, aims to de-escalate tensions on the ground and stabilise energy flows disrupted by the closure of the strait. As per Reuters, US officials have maintained that President Trump wants nuclear issues “dealt with from the outset.” The Trump administration expressed reluctance, with officials sceptical of the absence of nuclear provisions and warning against what they consider to be conceding leverage. Via Truth Social, Trump stated that "Iran has just informed us that they are in a 'State of Collapse'. They want us to 'Open the Hormuz Strait,' as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter!", while Reuters has noted that it remains unclear as to how Tehran may have communicated the same. According to The Hindu, while the White House confirmed it is reviewing the proposed plan, early reports suggest rejection in its current form.
(“What’s in Iran’s latest proposal – and how has the US responded?” Al Jazeera, 28 April 2026.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/whats-in-irans-latest-proposal-and-how-has-the-us-responded)
“Israel-Iran war LIVE: Gulf leaders meet in Saudi to discuss war's fallout as U.S. examines latest Iran proposal,” The Hindu, 28 April 2026. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-war-live-trump-ceasefire-talks-strait-of-hormuz-updates-april-28-2026/article70914662.ece
“Trump says Iran has told him it is in a 'state of collapse',” Reuters, 28 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-not-happy-with-latest-iran-proposal-end-war-us-official-says-2026-04-28/)

The United Arab Emirates leaves OPEC amid emerging differences with Gulf states
On 28 April, Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates is quitting the organisations OPEC and OPEC+. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the UAE made this decision after carefully considering Abu Dhabi’s strategies and future production policies. He also said the UAE did not consult any other country, including Saudi Arabia, which is considered the de facto leader of OPEC. He added that the UAE's exit from the organization will not have a significant impact on the oil market, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This announcement comes after the UAE criticised its neighbouring Arab states for not doing enough to protect it from Iranian attacks. Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said on Monday that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries provided very limited support to one another in political and military terms.
(“UAE leaves OPEC in major blow to global oil producers' group,” Reuters, 28 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/)

Saudi Arabia chairs the first in-person GCC meeting on Iran strikes; GCC’s political and military response “weakest in history,” criticises the UAE’s top official
On 28 April, Reuters reported that Saudi ‌ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chaired a consultative meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Jeddah, the first in-person meeting of Gulf leaders since the war began. Sources revealed that the meeting hinged on responding to the Iranian strikes on the Gulf states during the course of the war, including the attacks on critical energy infrastructure across six GCC states. Qatar's emir, Kuwait's crown prince, Bahrain's king and the United Arab Emirates' foreign minister attended the summit. Saudi state media said the summit discussed "topics and issues related to regional and international developments, and the coordination of efforts regarding them." The UAE has levelled severe criticism against the GCC in their response to the war, as senior UAE official Anwar Gargash stated that while the forum ensures mutual logistical support, “politically and militarily, I think their position was the weakest in history.” "I expected such a weak position from the Arab League, and I am not surprised by it, but I have not expected it from the GCC, and I am surprised by it,’ he added.
(“Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss response to Iranian strikes,” Reuters, 28 April 2026.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-leaders-meet-saudi-arabia-discuss-response-iranian-strikes-2026-04-28/)

25 APRIL 2026: DAY 57
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Tehran refuses direct talks with the US, rejects “maximalist demands”
On 25 April, Reuters reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi outlined its demands and concerns regarding the US position after arriving in Islamabad. Araqchi held meetings with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and other high-level officials. A statement on Mr Araqchi's Telegram account said the minister "explained our country's principled positions regarding the latest developments related to the ceasefire and the complete end of the imposed war against Iran." Another Iranian diplomat commented on the US's demands and said that Iran will not accept any "maximalist demands." Washington dispatched President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad. However, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson posted on X that the Iranian delegation did not plan to meet with US representatives and would hold talks only with Pakistani officials.

Iran to make offer satisfying US demands, claims Trump
On 25 April, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump said on 24 April that the Iranians planned to make an offer that would satisfy US demands. He added that the US was now dealing with "people that are in charge now." Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, stated the US had seen some progress from Iran and hoped for more developments this weekend. Vice President JD Vance is also ready to travel to Islamabad. Meanwhile, international flights also resumed from Iran's Imam Khomeini International Airport on Saturday. The first flights departed for Medina, Muscat and Istanbul.
(“Iran to make offer aimed at satisfying US demands, Trump says,” Reuters, 25 April 2026; “Iran says it won't accept 'maximalist demands' as Islamabad hosts peace push,” Reuters, 25 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-make-offer-aimed-satisfying-us-demands-trump-tells-reuters-2026-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-negotiators-go-islamabad-iran-says-no-direct-talks-2026-04-25)

24 APRIL 2026: DAY 56
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Foreign Minister Araqchi to join peace negotiations in Islamabad; Washington “not anxious” for a deal, says Pete Hegseth; US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz strengthens
On 24 April, Reuters reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is expected to join the peace negotiations in Islamabad. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Washington was “not anxious” for a deal with Iran and that "the ball is in [Iran's] court.” He asserted that Tehran has the chance to make a “good deal” if they abandon their nuclear weapons programme “in meaningful and verifiable ways.” Hegseth added that Washington’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is “growing and going global," and that no vessels will be allowed passage without US permission. US General Dan Cain stated that the US Command will maintain a strict blockade on all ports in Iran and is “prepared and postured to intercept” any transgressors. Thirty-four ships had been turned around so far, he ‌said.
(“Iran's foreign minister to head to Islamabad, venue of US talks,” Reuters, 24 April 2026; “Pentagon chief Hegseth says US blockade on Iran going global,” Reuters, 24 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-extend-ceasefire-trump-seeks-best-deal-with-iran-2026-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-chief-hegseth-says-iran-has-chance-make-good-deal-2026-04-24/)

Lebanon: Hezbollah lawmaker says that the ceasefire with Israel is meaningless after a three-week extension is announced
On 24 April, Reuters reported that Hezbollah said the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was meaningless as Israel continued to attack southern Lebanon. The group also added that it had the right to respond to such aggression. These comments came one day after US President Donald Trump announced a three-week extension on 23 April, following a meeting with Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors in Washington. The ceasefire agreement was previously set for 10 days and was scheduled to expire on 26 April. Ali Fayyad, a Lebanese Member of Parliament from Hezbollah, stated that "the ceasefire is meaningless in light of Israel's insistence on hostile acts." Despite the ceasefire, exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel persist in southern Lebanon, where Israel has established a military presence in order to secure a buffer zone. Fayyad added that any Israeli aggression against Lebanese figures gave Hezbollah "the right to respond proportionately."
(“Hezbollah says ceasefire 'meaningless' as fighting continues in south,” Reuters, 24 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-mp-ceasefire-meaningless-light-israeli-attacks-2026-04-24/)

23 APRIL 2026: DAY 55
The US and Iran: Iran tightens control over the Strait following the collapse of peace talks; US forces interdict a sanctioned vessel in the Indian Ocean; Trump orders the US Navy to “shoot and kill any boat”
On 23 April, Reuters reported that Iran showed tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz after the collapse of peace talks. It released footage of commandos boarding commercial vessels, including the MSC Francesca, after claiming their seizure on 22 April. Iranian officials stated that ships crossing without permits had "faced the law.” The vice speaker of parliament also stated that the first revenue from the newly imposed transit tolls had been transferred to the central bank. Reuters reported that Iran has effectively restricted passage through the strait, linking any reopening to the lifting of the US blockade on its shipping.

Meanwhile, the BBC reported that US forces have interdicted a sanctioned vessel that is transporting oil from Iran, reflecting the continued enforcement efforts. According to the defence department: "US forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean.” Further, President Trump stated on Truth Social that "I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be... that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.” "There is to be no hesitation,” he added. In this backdrop, negotiations remain stalled, with Iranian officials refraining from sending a delegation over the US blockade, alongside other reasons, as highlighted by media reports.
("Iran shows off its control over strait after collapse of peace talks,” Reuters, 23 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-tightens-control-hormuz-after-us-calls-off-renewed-attacks-2026-04-23/; “US boards ship carrying Iranian oil, as Trump orders navy to shoot any boat laying mines in strait,” BBC, 23 April 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c0mjev4kn9jt)

Global Fallouts: Thirty million people pushed into poverty due to supply chain disruption, says UNDP chief
On 23 April, Reuters reported that over 30 million people would be thrust back into poverty by the impacts of the war, largely due to disruptions to fuel and fertiliser supplies. The report cites the UN Development Chief Alexander De Croo, who stated that "Food insecurity ?will be at its peak level in a few months – and there is not much that you can do about it.” He added that the crisis has already wiped out an estimated 0.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent of global GDP. In another report, Reuters also highlighted that the global economy is showing increasing strain from the Iran war's energy shock, with factories facing soaring production costs and even the services sector weakening. The euro zone has emerged as one of the hardest hit regions, with its headline PMI dropping from 50.7 in March to 48.6 in April, its input price index soaring to 76.9 from 68.9, and its dominant services sector plummeting to 47.4 from 50.2. The disruption stems largely from Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut off roughly 20 per cent of global oil supplies and significant LNG volumes. Beyond energy, the near-total halt of tanker traffic has disrupted global supplies of sulfur, helium crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, and fertilizer inputs, threatening food production. The IMF has responded by cutting its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 per cent from 3.4 per cent. Paradoxically, some economies, including Japan, India, the UK and France, have reported short-term output increases as companies accelerate production to get ahead of anticipated supply chain disruptions, with Japan recording its strongest factory output expansion since 2014, though analysts warn this effect will be temporary.
(“Iran war impact seeps ever deeper into global economy,” Reuters, 23 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iran-war-impact-seeps-ever-deeper-into-global-economy-2026-04-23/)

22 APRIL 2026: DAY 54
The US-Iran Ceasefire: Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely ahead of the new round of negotiations; Tehran undecided on further talks
On 22 April, CNN reported that President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran on the eve of its expiry and that a new round of talks was on hold. Trump asserted that Iran wanted the Strait of Hormuz open “so they can make 500 million dollars a day.” He further claimed that “Iran is collapsing financially!,” and is “starving for cash.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that Tehran is yet to decide whether to participate in the new round of talks, as Washington “has shown disregard and lack of good faith.”
(“Day 53 of Middle East conflict - Trump extends ceasefire,” 22 April 2026, CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel)

Iran: Tehran seizes and redirects two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after attacks are halted
On April 22, Reuters reported that Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. The Hindu also reported that one of the vessels was headed to Gujarat’s Mudra port while the second ship was Liberia-flagged Epaminoda. Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim said that the Revolutionary Guards had seized two vessels for maritime violations and escorted them to the Iranian shores. This marks the first ‌time Iran has seized ships since the war began in the last week of February. The Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy also cautioned that any act that may be considered a disruption to the order and safety in the strait would be considered a "red line”. Despite this, shipping executives at the FT Commodities Global Summit said that Asian shipowners may begin sailing through the Strait of Hormuz soon, amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, as they have a higher tolerance for risk. They can likely also pay the tolls. This is unlike the western firms that are more inclined to comply with the sanctions that are imposed.
(“Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after Trump halts attacks,” 22 April 2026, Reuters; “Asian shipowners to cross Hormuz before Western firms, executives say,” 22 April 2026, Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asian-shipowners-cross-hormuz-before-western-firms-executives-say-2026-04-22/)

The US: Washington adopts Ukrainian counter-drone technology after Iranian strikes
On 22 April, Reuters reported that the United States military had begun using Ukrainian counter-drone technology at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia following the repeated Iranian drone and missile attacks on regional targets. The system, known as Sky Map, is a Ukrainian command and control platform designed to detect incoming drones and coordinate counterattacks using the interceptor drones. Ukrainian military personnel have recently arrived at the base to train US troops in operating this system. This move reflects Ukraine’s rapid advances in drone and counter-drone technologies developed during its war with Russia, where such systems have been widely used against Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Analysts noted that the adoption of Ukrainian technology also highlights gaps in US air and missile defence coverage. The base, which is located at about 640 kilometres from Iran, has faced several drone and missile attacks that damaged aircraft and infrastructure and resulted in casualties among US personnel.
(“Exclusive: US turns to Ukrainian counter-drone tech after Iran attacks, sources say,” Reuters, 22 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-turns-ukrainian-counter-drone-tech-after-iran-attacks-sources-say-2026-04-22/)

21 APRIL 2026: DAY 53
The US: Washington seizes Iran-linked tanker in international waters as truce deadline nears
On 21 April, the US military stated that it had seized a tanker linked to Iran in international waters, reflecting continued enforcement of its blockade as the two-week truce was coming close to expiring. According to Reuters, Washington expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran may proceed in Pakistan, with Tehran reportedly considering participation. However, time was running out as the deadline neared. The US military confirmed that it boarded the tanker Tifani “without incident.” The vessel, capable of carrying two million barrels of crude, was located near Sri Lanka and had indicated Singapore as its destination. The US Central Command stated: “As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran — anywhere they operate.” Iran did not comment on the boarding; however, media reports suggest this could challenge peace talks arrangements. Tehran said that the blockade of its ports constitutes a US violation of the truce and that it will not negotiate while the blockade is in place. (“Trump says he does not want to extend truce as expiry nears, US seizes tanker,” Reuters, 21 April 2026). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-positive-iran-deal-talks-still-uncertain-ceasefire-end-nears-2026-04-21/

The US-Iran Peace talks: President Trump says Tehran has "no choice but to send" delegates to Pakistan
On 21 April, the BBC reported that President Trump stated Iran has “no choice but to send” delegates to Pakistan for talks with the US. In an interview with CNBC, he reportedly expressed confidence that Washington would “end up with a great deal.” He described the naval blockade as a “tremendous success” and, when asked about extending the ceasefire, he stated: “I don't want to do that.” Trump later stated that: “I expect to be bombing 'cause that would be a better attitude.” According to Reuters, Tehran had not yet decided on its participation in the second round of peace talks in Islamabad. Pakistan officials noted that, if delegations attend, they are unlikely to arrive before 22 April, leaving only limited time to secure an agreement before the two-week truce expires. President Trump has warned of resuming hostilities, including potential attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, if his terms are not accepted. An initial round of talks held ten days earlier failed to result in an agreement. Subsequently, Tehran showed reluctance to engage in a second round this week, referring to the US’ refusal to lift its blockade and its seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel. (“Trump says he 'expects to be bombing' if no progress made in Iran talks,” BBC, 21 April 2026; “Trump says he does not want to extend truce as expiry nears, US seizes tanker,” Reuters, 21 April 2026).
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx297218m9vt
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-positive-iran-deal-talks-still-uncertain-ceasefire-end-nears-2026-04-21/

The War in Iran is generating the worst energy crisis in history, says IEA head
On 21 April, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the US is generating the worst energy crisis ever faced by the world. He noted that “the crisis is already huge, if you combine the effects of the petrol crisis and the gas crisis with Russia,” pointing to the overlapping pressures on global energy markets. The war has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. These disruptions compound earlier shocks from the War in Ukraine, which limited Russian gas supplies to Europe. The IEA chief had earlier assessed the situation as more severe than the crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. In March, the IEA authorised the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to stabilise rising oil prices. (“War in Iran is causing biggest energy crisis in history, IEA says,” Reuters, 21 April 2026). https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/war-iran-is-causing-biggest-energy-crisis-history-iea-says-2026-04-21/

20 APRIL 2026: DAY 51
US-Iran Peace Talks: Tehran rejects talks following Washington’s blockade of Hormuz and seizure of an Iranian vessel
On 20 April, Reuters reported that Tehran will abstain from the peace negotiations in Islamabad as the two-week ceasefire is set to expire. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the US has “violated the ceasefire from the beginning of its implementation,” citing Washington's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US’ capture of an Iranian vessel that attempted to breach the blockade. Security sources stated that chief negotiator Field Marshal Asim Munir had informed President Trump that the blockade would be a major obstacle to the talks. Baghaei also underscored that Tehran’s 10-point proposal, submitted prior to the first round of talks, will remain the basis for all negotiations and that Iran will “respond accordingly,” in the event of further aggression from the US or Israel. He accused Washington of showing a lack of seriousness toward diplomacy, stressing that Tehran would not change its stated demands and does not accept deadlines or ultimatums in matters concerning its national interests.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world-weighs-fate-mideast-ceasefire-after-us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-2026-04-20/

Lebanon: Israel warns Lebanese citizens not to return to areas marked by new maps
On 20 April, Reuters reported that Israel told residents of Southern Lebanon not to enter the belt of territory running the length of the Israel-Lebanon border and to stay away from the Litani River. This announcement comes after a ten-day ceasefire took effect between Israel and Hezbollah. However, the ceasefire remains fragile due to the presence of Israeli troops in Southern Lebanon, which aims to create a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon. The Israeli military published a map on social media which displayed a red line through twenty-one villages and said that no one should move into the area between the line and the border. This map also marked fifty other villages which civilians should avoid. The Israeli military published another map which marked its new deployment line in Lebanon. This line lies ten kilometres deep in Lebanese territory. Mahmoud Qmati, a senior Hezbollah official, told the residents of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut not to return to their homes because of risks of Israeli strikes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-entrenches-hold-south-lebanon-warns-residents-stay-out-2026-04-20/

18 APRIL 2026: DAY 49
Iran strengthens control over the Strait of Hormuz, reports Reuters
On 18 April, Reuters reported that Iran stated it was tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and at least two vessels reported coming under fire while trying to transit the waterway. Tehran has responded to the US blockade by calling it a violation of the ceasefire. Iran had initially announced its temporary reopening of the Strait following a US-brokered ten-day ceasefire agreement on Thursday between Israel and Lebanon after Israel invaded parts of Southern Lebanon. However, on Saturday, Iran's armed forces command declared that transit through the strait had reverted to a state of strict Iranian military control due to what it described as repeated US violations and acts of “piracy” under the guise of a blockade. According to maritime security and shipping sources, some merchant vessels received radio messages from Iran’s navy stating no ships were allowed through the waterway, and at least two vessels reported being hit by gunfire as they attempted to cross the strait. Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, stated that no date had been set for the next round of negotiations. At the same time, Trump has told Reuters there would probably be more direct talks between Iran and the US this weekend, which some diplomats have declared unlikely. Trump also added that the US blockade of Iranian ports would continue. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-he-has-good-news-iran-no-clarity-peace-deal-2026-04-18/

Trump claims that Tehran has agreed to all terms
On 18 April, CBS News reported that US President Donald Trump stated that the Iranian regime had “agreed to everything” he proposed while discussing terms. This includes the US removing enriched uranium from the nation. Trump clarified that the removal would not involve US troops on the ground but would still involve “our (American) people.” Strangely enough, the Iranian foreign ministry released a statement in it was shared that “uranium is sacred to us [Iran]” and hence would not be transferred. Meanwhile, he also claimed that Tehran has agreed to stop backing proxy terror groups such as Hezbollah or Hamas.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-says-iranians-have-agreed-to-everything-including-removal-of-enriched-uranium/

16 APRIL 2026: DAY 48
Top American officials say that the US is ready to resume combat operations against Iran, reports Reuters
On 16 April, Reuters reported that the US armed forces are prepared to resume combat operations against Iran if a peace deal is not reached. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, in a briefing to the Pentagon, warned Iran against making poor choices which could lead the US to bomb its power and energy infrastructure. He added that the US also has intelligence about the movement of Iran's military assets. Furthermore, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that US armed forces were ready to launch major operations at "a moment's notice." He added that the US Navy would intercept any ship which refuses to comply with the American blockade of Iran, in both Iran's territorial waters and international Iranian-flagged waters. He said that so far, thirteen ships had chosen to turn around instead of breaking the blockade. The Trump administration on Wednesday had expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Iran while applying economic pressure through a naval blockade against Iranian-flagged vessels or any other vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-ready-restart-combat-if-iran-doesnt-agree-deal-says-hegseth-2026-04-16/

13 APRIL 2026: DAY 45
After the talks fail, Trump threatens Iran with a US naval blockade
On 13 April, Reuters reported on a US naval blockade of Iran’s ports in the Strait of Hormuz. This is likely to increase tensions in the ongoing conflict, raising fears of a broader regional confrontation. President Trump said the move is set to take effect at 10 am ET (1400 GMT), following the collapse of weekend ceasefire talks. The US military blockade would target all maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports, while allowing passage to vessels bound for non-Iranian destinations. Officials argue the strategy could cut off Iran’s key economic leverage and restore stability to global oil flows disrupted by the conflict. However, experts warn that enforcing such a blockade would require significant naval resources and could amount to an act of war.
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-trump-says-us-begin-naval-blockade-irans-ports-strait-hormuz-2026-04-13/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-will-not-back-blockade-strait-hormuz-pm-starmer-says-2026-04-13/

Iran threatens to retaliate against the US blockade, calls it “piracy” and threatens targeting the Gulf ports
On 13 April, Tehran threatened to retaliate against the ports of Gulf countries, following the failed talks at Islamabad and Trump’s threat to blockade the Hormuz. Since the start of the war on 28 February, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own and stated that access to other countries will only be permitted under Iranian control and toll fees regulated by them. An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy," and warned that if Iranian ports were threatened, no port in the Gulf would be secure.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-blockade-iran-after-talks-fail-yield-a-deal-2026-04-13/

NATO allies reject Trump’s Hormuz blockade plan, push for diplomatic solution
On 13 April, Reuters reported that NATO allies have refused to join President Trump’s proposed naval blockade of Iran-linked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, exposing fresh divisions within the alliance. The UK and France were against participating in the US-led operation, stressing the need to restore navigation through diplomatic rather than military means. The British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, said that the UK would not be “dragged into the war,” despite mounting pressure. French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a separate, multinational, defensive mission aimed at reopening the vital waterway once conditions stabilise. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged members to consider coordinated efforts, but consensus remains elusive. The refusal to back Washington’s blockade underscores growing transatlantic strains, as allies prioritise de-escalation and stability over direct military involvement.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-allies-refuse-join-trumps-strait-hormuz-blockade-2026-04-13/

China says the US blockade would be against international interests
On 13 April, Reuters reported that China stated a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would go against the international community's interests and urged calm and restraint by all sides. In Beijing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the UAE special envoy of the President of China, Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not serve the common interests of the international community. He emphasised that a fundamental way to resolve the crisis was a comprehensive ceasefire. Foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that he hopes both parties will abide by the temporary ceasefire arrangements and remain committed to them. He also added that China stood ready to "play a positive and constructive role" in resolving the crisis and called the weekend talks in Islamabad a step in the right direction toward easing tensions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-urges-restraint-over-us-blockade-strait-hormuz-backs-talks-2026-04-13/

11 APRIL 2026: DAY 43
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei injured, says Reuters
On 11 April, Reuters reported that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, is recovering from severe injuries sustained in an airstrike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, at the onset of the ongoing war. Mojtaba suffered significant facial disfigurement and possible leg injuries, though he remains mentally alert and actively engaged in governance through audio-linked meetings. His condition comes at a critical time, as Iran navigates high-stakes conflict and diplomatic talks with the United States. Despite his appointment in March, there has been no public appearance, image, or direct communication from him, fueling speculation about his health and authority. In Iran’s power structure, the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority, but analysts suggest Mojtaba may initially lack the consolidated influence his father built over decades. Meanwhile, institutions like the Revolutionary Guards are believed to be playing a dominant role in decision-making. Iranian officials have yet to confirm details of his condition, leaving much uncertainty around leadership at a pivotal moment.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-new-supreme-leader-has-severe-disfiguring-wounds-sources-say-2026-04-11/

Iranian officials claim that the US will release USD six billion of frozen funds
On 11 April, Reuters reported that Iran said that the US has agreed to release Iran's frozen assets, which are currently being held in Qatar and other foreign banks. An Iranian source told Reuters Iran had demanded it in messages to the US and had received an agreement to release the assets. He added that the unfreezing of Iranian assets was linked to ensuring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Another source said the US would release USD six billion in frozen funds currently held in Qatar. These USD six billion were initially frozen in 2018 in South Korean Banks after the first Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran. In 2023, these funds were moved to Qatar as part of a prisoner exchange deal with Iran. However, the US froze them again after the 7 October attacks on Israel by Hamas. The US has denied the recent Iranian claims that it unfroze these funds, and the Qatar Foreign Ministry has made no comment.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iranian-source-says-us-has-agreed-release-frozen-iranian-assets-qatar-other-2026-04-11/

Islamabad talks begin in Pakistan
On 11 April, Reuters reported that US and Iranian officials met in Islamabad on Saturday to seek an end to their six-week war. The talks between Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, mediated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, lasted for two ‌hours. The two sides have discussed several negotiations so far. Iran wants a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have killed nearly two thousand people. However, Israel and the U.S. have stated the Lebanon campaign is not part of the Iran-US ceasefire. Iran also wants the US to unblock Iranian assets and end sanctions, to acknowledge its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, where it aims to collect transit fees, demand compensation for all damage during the six-week war, and withdraw US combat forces from the region, which Trump plans to keep until peace deals have been reached. Whereas Washington has indicated that it is open to significant sanctions relief but only in exchange for concessions from Iran on its nuclear and missile programmes, it wants the Straight opened for oil tankers and other traffic without any limitations, including tolls. Israel and the US also want Iran's missile capabilities to be dramatically curtailed, which Tehran has declared as non-negotiable. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/what-are-main-talking-points-us-iran-negotiations-pakistan-2026-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-set-peace-talks-doubts-emerge-over-lebanon-sanctions-2026-04-11/

10 APRIL 2026: DAY 42
US and Iran: Strait of Hormuz remains shut, as JD Vance heads to Pakistan, anticipating “positive negotiations”; fighting persists in Lebanon
On 10 April, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, and fresh exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon happened, with both sides accusing each other of violations. US President Donald Trump criticised Iran for failing to reopen the strategic waterway and described it as a breach of the agreement. Meanwhile, Iran condemned ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, which killed over 250 people shortly after the truce was announced. Tehran insisted that the ceasefire should extend to its Hezbollah ally. Israel rejected this interpretation and instead offered direct talks with the Lebanese government aimed at disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations.

Despite the tensions, preparations for the first US-Iran peace talks continued in Islamabad. Both sides were in place at the Serena hotel, with Pakistan mediating and describing the situation as “on track.” It noted that the de-escalation in Lebanon is a positive sign in this process. The US delegation is led by Vice President JD Vance, while Iran’s is headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Vance stated that he anticipated “positive negotiations” but warned Iran against attempting to “play” the US team. The talks are expected to address core disputes, including Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and regional influence, even as the war’s early economic impact begins to appear in US inflation data.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-shows-strain-ahead-talks-with-oil-flows-squeezed-2026-04-10/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/vance-warns-iran-not-play-us-he-leaves-talks-2026-04-10/

UK: PM Starmer discusses Hormuz with President Trump amid reports of the US withdrawing troops from Europe
On 10 April, Reuters reported that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed military capabilities and ship logistics in the Strait of Hormuz with US President Donald Trump a day earlier. During his visit to the Gulf, Starmer said that the UK is "pulling together a coalition of countries" while also examining the military capabilities and the logistics of vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that he also discussed a practical plan for navigation through the strait. The conversation took place amid reports that the US was withdrawing some of its troops from Europe. A senior White House official told Reuters that, so far, only discussions about troop removal have taken place, and the Pentagon has not been given any direction by the White House. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, in an interview with CNN on Wednesday, had said that President Trump is frustrated with the alliance and wants concrete commitments to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Commenting on these reports, Prime Minister Starmer said that NATO is a defensive alliance which was in the interests of both the US and Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uks-starmer-says-he-discussed-military-options-strait-hormuz-with-us-president-2026-04-10/

08 APRIL 2026: DAY 40
Trump announces a two-week ceasefire; US to “suspend bombing and attack of Iran”
Preetha R
On 08 April, the BBC reported that Iran and the United States agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire that would allow shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This followed over a month of coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran and came hours after President Trump warned that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran did not reopen the Strait.

Trump stated he would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” as the US had “already met and exceeded all military objectives.” Iran agreed to regulate passage through the Strait and issued a ten-point plan, including complete cessation of war in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen; sanctions relief and compensation. Meanwhile in Lebanon, Israel not only stated that the ceasefire did not apply, but also escalated with their biggest air strikes yet on Hezbollah.

What does it mean?
First, both sides claimed success, but core disagreements remain unresolved. Second, for the US and Iran. Washington framed the ceasefire as a “total and complete victory,” while Tehran stated the US suffered a “historic and crushing defeat.” Despite these claims, Iran retains its enriched uranium stockpile and missile capabilities. Reports from Reuters highlight the clerical leadership withstanding the war with “no sign of domestic opposition.” It also notes Tehran's recently proven ability to cut off Gulf energy supplies, despite the massive US military presence built across the region over decades. Third, for Israel. Although Israel supports the ceasefire, the agreement represents a setback to its repeated objective of bringing about Iran's fall. As opposition politician Yair Lapid noted: “The nuclear programme was not destroyed. The ballistic threat remains. The regime is still intact and is even emerging from this war stronger.”

What next?
Pakistan has proposed talks in Islamabad on 10 April for a conclusive settlement. Iran's president confirmed it would attend, while the US has yet to confirm. Both sides maintain competing demands; Washington has presented its demands in a 15-point plan, while Iran has responded with a 10-point plan of its own. As per US and Israeli officials, the Trump administration assured Israel that it would insist on previous conditions, including the removal of Iran’s nuclear material, halt enrichment and the elimination of ballistic missiles.

Iran’s Ten-point proposal to the US: President Trump describes the plan as “workable”
Brighty Ann Sarah
On 08 April, Iran presented a 10-point proposal entailing the terms of a ceasefire to the US. President Trump has described it as a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” and a “significant step,” but “not good enough.” The proposal was presented by Pakistan, as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on social media that the US, Iran and all their allies have agreed to a ceasefire “everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.”

What does the 10-point proposal entail?
The Hindu reported that Iran’s 10-point proposal demands the acceptance of Tehran's right to nuclear enrichment, the removal of primary and secondary sanctions, and Washington’s reparations for the damages caused by the war. Tehran has also urged the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Further, it calls for the establishment of a secure transit framework in the Strait of Hormuz that ensures Iranian dominance under mutually agreed terms and controlled passage through the Strait, coordinated by Iran’s armed forces. They also call for the withdrawal of US military forces from the Middle East and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran also demanded the termination of all UN Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, and the adoption of a binding UN Security Council resolution to formalise any agreement.

Earlier proposals and their outcomes
Earlier, on 24 March, the US had offered a 15-point proposal, which Iran had rebuked as “extremely excessive, unusual and illogical.” Washington’s demands included the decommissioning of Tehran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and demanded that Iran withdraw its support for proxy armed groups in the region, reported the Wall Street Journal. In turn, the US offered to lift the sanctions on Iran and revoke the “snapback” mechanism that automatically reimposes international sanctions in the event of Iranian non-compliance with nuclear commitments. Washington also offered assistance for the development of Iran’s civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant, Israel's Channel 12 reported.

Despite Washington’s hardline demands against Tehran’s nuclear and missile programme, the acceptance of the latest proposal indicates the urgency to operationalise the Strait of Hormuz. It is likely that the proposal was accepted as an immediate attempt to halt hostilities and operationalise the Strait, while Iran's major demands might lead to contention.

UNSC: Bahrain-led resolution on Iran fails; Russia and China veto it, citing bias and risk of escalation
Lekshmi MK
What was the resolution all about?
On 07 April, Bahrain introduced a draft resolution at the United Nations Security Council to address escalating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war. The resolution called for coordinated international efforts to secure maritime navigation, including the protection and, if necessary, the escorting of commercial vessels through the critical waterway. It aimed to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global energy supplies and reduce risks to commercial shipping in one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints. The draft received 11 votes in favour, but was vetoed by Russia and China, while Brazil and Mozambique abstained.

Who voted for and who voted against? And why?
Russia and China opposed the resolution, arguing that it unfairly singled out Iran and could legitimise US-led military actions in the region. Emphasising diplomacy, they maintained that the crisis should be resolved through dialogue rather than security-driven interventions. As one diplomat noted, the draft risked “escalating tensions instead of de-escalating them.” Meanwhile, Brazil and Mozambique abstained, citing concerns over the resolution’s lack of balance and the possibility of further escalation. Supporters of the resolution, including Western and allied countries, pointed to rising threats to global energy security and stressed the urgency of ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

What does it mean?
The failure to adopt the resolution highlights deep divisions within the Security Council, particularly between Western powers and the Russia-China bloc. It underscores the difficulty of achieving consensus during major geopolitical crises and reflects the limitations of multilateral institutions in managing conflicts involving competing global interests. At the same time, it reinforces the continued importance of diplomatic engagement, even as strategic rivalries constrain collective action.

Oil prices fall below USD 100 as President Trump announces a two-week ceasefire
On 08 March, Reuters reported that Oil prices fell sharply below USD 100 per barrel. This is after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows. As a result, Brent and WTI crude fell by 16-18 per cent, as the market expected that the resumption of disrupted oil flows would immediately address supply concerns. Prices had surged ahead of and during the conflict on supply fears but have since fallen as the ceasefire signals a resumption of flows.

Alongside, Iran indicated that it would halt its attacks if strikes against it stopped, further signalling willingness to allow controlled transit through the strait during the ceasefire. This measure could incrementally release an estimated 10-13 million barrels of oil a day that is "stranded" at the moment. However, uncertainty remains over implementation, security, and shipping logistics.

The Strait of Hormuz is a very narrow passage that reportedly handles around 20 per cent of the world's oil trade. At the same time, it has been the core of escalating tensions, which has significantly impacted prices, increasing them by over 50 per cent. Hence, while the ceasefire can be seen as a way to provide short-term relief, it opens the door for the two sides to negotiate their differences. However, analysts warn that markets may remain volatile amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

Strait of Hormuz: Iran suggests a new toll mechanism for the Strait transit
On 08 April, Iran signalled a shift in its maritime control approach. It proposed that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency. This would apply to oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz during a ceasefire period. The proposal comes amid ongoing tensions in the region. The Strait of Hormuz is a key global shipping route. A significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes through it. Any change in how transit is managed in this region has direct implications for international energy markets and supply chains. The proposal outlines a structured approach to regulating maritime access, where payment becomes a prerequisite for passage. It also introduces cryptocurrency as the designated mode of transaction, differing from conventional payment systems used in international shipping. This may require shipping companies to adapt their financial processes and ensure alignment with applicable regulatory frameworks.

Implementing such a system would require coordination among multiple actors, including shipping operators, insurers, and regulatory authorities. It may also affect how transit permissions are granted and monitored during the ceasefire period. The development is linked to broader regional security conditions. The Strait of Hormuz has been a focal point of tensions in recent years. Past incidents have included disruptions to shipping and heightened military activity in surrounding waters. The proposal indicates a potential change in how access to the Strait may be structured during a ceasefire. It also introduces new operational considerations for shipping companies navigating the route.

US and NATO: President Trump welcomes Chief Rutte as Iran war strains alliance
On 08 April, Reuters reported that President Trump welcomed NATO chief Mark Rutte to the White House to address strained relations between Washington and its European allies amid the ongoing Iran war. President Trump criticised some NATO members for providing “insufficient support” during the conflict and labelled the alliance a “paper tiger.” Due to the limited involvement of NATO members in US-led operations, Trump emphasized the need for stronger contributions toward regional security and urged that allies “must step up in ways that reflect our shared commitments.” European diplomats suggest that countries appear unlikely to join mine-clearing or other missions in the Strait of Hormuz while the conflict continues. Ongoing disagreements over Iran, Ukraine, and defence spending are straining NATO’s unity, with some officials warning it could reach a “dangerous point” for the alliance. Rutte is expected to emphasise NATO’s defensive role and the importance of transatlantic cooperation during the talks. He is also likely to highlight European efforts to increase military spending and safeguard energy and maritime trade amid ongoing disruptions from the conflict. The meeting is expected to ease tensions between the alliances and reinforce transatlantic cooperation.

"China will continue to play a constructive role," says China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, after vetoing the Bahrain-led UNSC resolution
On 08 April, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, responding to a question about Beijing's involvement in the war, stated that China plays a constructive role and strives to promote peace and end war. Additionally, she stated that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi held 26 phone conversations with the foreign ministers of relevant countries. Apart from that, in the UNSC resolution that called for coordinated international efforts to secure maritime navigation, including the protection and, if necessary, escort of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, China vetoed it, citing biased measures.

China's UN envoy stated that adopting the draft in a circumstance where the US threatens the survival of a civilisation would have sent the wrong message. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz poses challenges for China’s energy security and export-oriented economy. In the long run, shipping delays, higher energy prices and rerouting around chokepoints will trigger an economic slowdown. In the meantime, China have been prioritising 'new-type power system.' The development of 'new-type power system' aims to establish a modern power system centred on renewables, using digital and smart technology. It is also crucial to the country's goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. On the whole, China has adopted a balanced, non-interventionist position, prioritising energy security, the BRI, and avoiding direct confrontation with the US.

07 APRIL 2026: DAY 39
US-Iran: “A whole civilization will die tonight,” warns Trump
On April 7, 2026, in Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged Iran to make a deal by Tuesday, warning of severe consequences if an agreement is not reached to end the conflict. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” adding that although he does not want such an outcome, it “probably will” happen if no deal is achieved. He further described the situation as one of the most important moments in the world's long and complex history, emphasising the urgency and gravity of the decision. The statement highlights increasing pressure on Iran to respond within the given timeframe, with attention focused on whether an agreement will be reached or the situation will escalate further.

Iran ignores Trump’s threats
On 7 April, Reuters reported that Iran showed no sign of accepting Donald Trump's ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz by the end of Tuesday. This was right after Trump stated that “a whole civilisation will die tonight" unless Iran ended the blockade of Gulf oil. According to Iranian media, throughout the day, railway and road bridges, an airport, and a petrochemical plant were targeted in Iran. Explosions were reported on Kharg Island, home to Iran's oil export terminal, which Trump has openly mused about destroying or seizing. Power was knocked out in parts of Karaj, just west of Tehran, by a strike on transmission lines and a substation. As a response, Iran declared that it would no longer hold back from hitting the infrastructure of US allies in the Gulf, whose desert cities would be uninhabitable without power or water. It claimed to have carried out fresh strikes on a ship in the Gulf and Saudi industrial facilities linked to US firms.

US strikes Kharg Island again as Vice President Vance says no change in strategy
On 07 April, Reuters reported that the US struck additional military targets on Iran's Kharg Island. A US official said on Tuesday that the attack occurred in the early morning hours and did not hit Iranian oil infrastructure. He added that some of the strikes hit targets that had already been hit. US Vice President JD Vance commented on this and said that the US strikes on Kharg Island don't represent a shift in American strategy. He added the US will not strike energy infrastructure "until the Iranians either make a proposal that we can get behind or don't make a proposal."

US: Trump rejects Iran’s 10-point peace plan
On 07 April, Al Jazeera reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan to the US as well as Israel, but the proposal has been rejected by US President Donald Trump. While he called it a “significant step” in the ongoing negotiations, Trump said it was not “good enough.” This development follows the attack on the top university in Tehran as well as a major petrochemical plant. Direct talks between the two countries' diplomats continue to be avoided. It was only in late March that Trump claimed conversations between US envoys and an Iranian official, though Iran refused the claim. The proposal primarily secured safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and a lifting of trade sanctions, but talks failed to secure the planned 45-day ceasefire.

Iran: IRGC claims attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex
On 07 April, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that they had succeeded in attacking the Jubail petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia, often considered to be central to the downstream energy sector of the nation. Several billion-dollar investments and ventures are said to centre around complex issues as well. Saudi Aramco and SABIC are among the major companies involved alongside Western initiatives, too. Iranian authorities claimed that this was a response to the “aggression against [the] Asaluyeh petrochemical plants” located in Iran. Video footage has confirmed flames and smoke emerging from the region that was reportedly attacked by “suicide drones.” Meanwhile, the Saudi defence ministry claimed that, though seven missiles were intercepted, debris landed near the energy sites.

06 APRIL 2026: DAY 38
Trump threatens “Hell”; Iran rejects the ceasefire proposal
On 06 April, Reuters reported Trump threatening to unleash “hell” on Tehran if it does not agree to a deal by Tuesday, insisting that Iran allow traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. According to BBC, quoting Iran’s state media, Tehran has rejected the ceasefire plans. The proposal, reportedly brokered through Pakistan, calls for an immediate ceasefire followed by talks on a broader settlement within 15–20 days. Iran has rejected reopening the Strait as part of a temporary truce and said it would not negotiate under pressure or deadlines. Meanwhile, fighting has continued across the region. Israel has intensified strikes, with Defence Minister Israel Katz warning of further action against Iran’s infrastructure and leadership. Iran reported attacks on key petrochemical sites, including the South Pars complex, where a fire was later brought under control without casualties.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-vows-hell-iran-if-strait-stays-shut-says-deal-is-possible-2026-04-06/

Israel strikes major petrochemical site in Iran
On 06 April, Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, stated that Israel struck a petrochemical facility in Iran and the IDF will continue to attack Iran's infrastructure with all force. He said, "Now the two facilities, which together are responsible for about 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports, have been taken out of service and are not functioning," and "This is a severe economic blow worth tens of billions of dollars to the Iranian regime. The petrochemical industry is a major engine in financing the activities of the Revolutionary Guards and in building Iran's military power." This action comes after US President Trump's comment on social media that says, "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!", indicating further attacks on Iran's infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt

China's President Xi Jinping calls for the construction of a new energy system as the Iran war progresses
On 06 April, Reuters reported that China's President Xi Jinping has called for accelerating the planning and construction of a new energy system to bolster China's energy security. This announcement comes weeks into the ongoing US-Iran war, which has triggered global energy shocks. Without directly referring to the US-Iran war, he said that the Party Central Committee gained a "profound grasp of global energy development trends" and that it had also "made major decisions by advancing the new energy security strategy in depth." Multiple analysts have stated that China is better positioned to absorb higher oil prices, given that coal forms the backbone of its energy mix. President Xi referred to China's coal-fired power as "the foundation of our energy system." Despite acknowledging China's widespread use of coal, he added that China must remain committed to clean and low-carbon development. He further said, "The path we took in being the ‌first ?to develop wind and solar power has now proven to be forward-looking."
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinas-xi-urges-faster-development-new-energy-system-middle-east-war-continues-2026-04-06/

04 APRIL 2026: DAY 36
Iran shoots down two US warplanes, including a US F-15 fighter jet; Both countries search for the pilot; 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them, says President Trump
On 04 April, Iran's IRNA news agency claimed that its top joint military commander shot down two US warplanes. Iran's spokesperson stated that they have employed a domestically produced air defence system and Iran will achieve full control of the skies as new such systems will roll out one after another. Additionally, the officials are carrying out an intensified search to capture the US pilot alive in return for promised rewards. US media reported that one of the pilots on board was rescued. US President Trump, reiterating his March 27 deadline, says, "Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!"

Iran drone strike on Israel-linked ship in Hormuz Strait
On 04 April, Reuters reported that Iran on Saturday said it had struck an Israel-linked vessel in the Strait of Hormuz using a drone, according to state media reports citing the commander of the Revolutionary Guards navy. The attack reportedly set the ship ablaze, raising fresh concerns over maritime security in one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints. There was no immediate response from Israel. The incident comes amid heightened regional tensions following recent military exchanges, fuelling fears of further escalation that could disrupt global energy supplies and international shipping routes passing through the strategically vital waterway.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-hit-israel-linked-vessel-hormuz-strait-2026-04-04/

Iraq shuts Shalamcheh trade crossing after Iran airstrikes
On 04 April, Reuters reported that Iraq closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran ‌after airstrikes on the Iranian side killed an Iraqi citizen. The strike hit a passenger reception area, severely wounding five Iraqis. This has led to the closure of a vital supply artery. Traders and border officials stated that the crossing is one of the main routes for importing vegetables and other food supplies from Iran to Iraq. Iraq’s border authorities said they had been notified by Iranian officials that truck and passenger movement would be restored in the coming hours once work on the transit and passport systems is completed. A few hours after the strike, Iraqi border authorities also briefly halted movement at the Safwan crossing with Kuwait after reporting explosions on the Kuwaiti side.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-closes-shalamcheh-crossing-with-iran-after-airstrikes-kill-iraqi-2026-04-04/

Trump considers broader cabinet shake-up as Iran war anxiety grows
On 04 April, Reuters reported that Donald Trump is considering a broader cabinet shake-up following the recent removals of Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem. The move comes as a five-week war with Iran fuels rising gas prices, sinking approval ratings, and growing concern among Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump's director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are also at risk of being removed from office. In recent months, Trump had expressed displeasure with Gabbard while Lutnick has faced scrutiny for his relationship with late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-weighs-broader-cabinet-shake-up-iran-war-pressure-grows-2026-04-04/

Pakistan: Tehran’s silence stalls Islamabad’s push for talks, says Dawn
On 04 April, the Dawn reported that a Pakistan-led initiative to facilitate talks between the United States and Iran has been delayed due to Tehran’s lack of formal response. Despite ongoing back-channel exchanges and some progress in relaying messages, Iran has not indicated readiness to engage in dialogue, slowing diplomatic momentum. Pakistan, supported by China, continues efforts to persuade Iran, maintaining contact with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The initiative, led by Asim Munir, also seeks support from Gulf countries, Türkiye and Beijing. A framework for talks has been discussed, with Islamabad considered as a potential venue, though opposition from some Arab states remains a key challenge to de-escalation efforts.
("‘Silence’ stonewalls Pakistan-led US-Iran talks initiative," Dawn, 04 April 2026. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dawn.com/news/amp/1988294)

03 APRIL 2026: DAY 35

ANALYSIS
The US-Iran War, Week Five
Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trump’s Renewed Threats

Rohini Reenum

In the News
US-Israeli offensive
Between 27 March and 3 April, the US and Israeli attacks continued on Iran. On 27 March, in a precise overnight strike, the IDF eliminated Alireza Tangsiri, Commander of the IRGC Navy. On 28 March, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that strikes had successfully destroyed 70 per cent of Iran’s steel production capacity, aimed at crippling Iran’s long-term ability to manufacture replacement missiles and drones. On 2 April, U.S. forces struck Bridge 1B, a vital artery connecting Tehran to Karaj. On 3 April, the US and Israel intensified attacks on Iran, hitting a century-old medical research centre in Tehran, steel plants, and a bridge near the capital, sparking criticism over their targeting of what Iran and many analysts insist are civilian infrastructure.

Iran’s Response
Between 27 March and 3 April, Iran continued to target sites in Israel and infrastructure in the Gulf countries. On 28 March, the Iran-aligned Houthis of Yemen officially entered the war, launching ballistic missile attacks, targeting “sensitive Israeli military sites” in southern Israel. They have also said that “they will continue these attacks until new alliances join Washington and Israel against Iran and its ?allies, or if the Red Sea is used for 'hostile operations’ against Iran.” On 29 March, Iran formalized its policy of allowing “non-hostile” tankers (primarily bound for China and India) to transit the Strait of Hormuz, provided they pay a transit fee in Chinese Yuan to bypass the dollar system. On 2 April, Iran published a “target list” of major bridges in Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE, and Bahrain. On 3 April, Iran's military claimed to have downed two U.S. jets in the Gulf: an F-15 in the southwest and an A-10 “Warthog” over the Persian Gulf. US officials have confirmed that one crew member was rescued.

International Response
On 30 March, over 30 countries, including the UK, France, Japan, and Canada, signed a joint statement condemning the closure of the Strait and authorizing preparatory planning for “all defensive means” to reopen the waterway. On 3 April, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted leaders and representatives from 40 countries to explore the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump’s Special Address
On 1 April, US President Donald Trump delivered a speech from the White House wherein he labelled Iran as the “world’s number one state sponsor of terror,” a threat to the US and the world, claimed to have won the war with Iran, and claimed that the war would wrap up soon. He said: “We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders.” He also said: “We are gonna finish the job. We are getting very close.” On the negotiations, he warned Iran: “If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously.”

On 1 April, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in an open letter addressed to the US public and shared by Iran’s state-run broadcaster PressTV, questioned whether President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy is “truly among the priorities of the US government today.” He also asserted that Iran was not against the American people and urged them to question “Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war?”

Issues at Large
First, the continuing attacks. Despite announcements of backchannel negotiations by the US, the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have continued. Earlier, Trump had announced a ten-day pause. On the other hand, Tehran has denied any direct talks with the US and continued to target Israel, infrastructure in the Gulf countries, and a selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The reluctance of the Gulf countries, which have borne the brunt of Tehran’s attacks, to retaliate has also likely bolstered Tehran’s continued attacks.

Second, the Houthis' entry into the war expanded the conflict’s geography. With this, a fourth front of the war has opened, giving the Houthis the ability to target ships in the Red Sea. There are fears that the war is likely to expand further if the Houthis choose to exercise that option. This will be a significant escalation with worldwide economic ramifications and may lead other countries with economic stakes to join the war. The Houthis' statement also reveals that their entry was a calculated move and a strategic response to the Coalition of the Willing, likely to ease the mounting pressure on Tehran. The Houthis have also expressed solidarity with other Iran-backed groups – Hezbollah. This means that their attacks will continue even if there is a ceasefire between the US and Iran, as Israel has indicated it will continue its attacks against Hezbollah.

Third, President Trump’s conflicting statements. His latest address early this week was a repetition of what he has been saying on his Truth Social platform and in other press briefings. The speech was also full of conflicting statements on the Iran war, in which he said the war has already been won, followed by an assertion that it should continue and that it will wrap up soon. Interestingly, his speech looked more like an argument for launching the Iran war, a move that is facing increased scrutiny in the US.

In Perspective
The war seems to have transformed from a precise decapitation campaign to a war of attrition, driven largely by Tehran’s defiance and the US’s inability to achieve its stated war objectives, even though President Trump has constantly claimed otherwise.

The entry of the Houthis and the formation of the Coalition of the Willing have increased fears that the War will metastasize into a global conflict with faultlines emerging across hemispheres, with significant ramifications for the world economy, which is already reeling under the Hormuz blockade. All eyes are now on President Trump’s 6 April deadline, which will define the course of the war.

03 APRIL 2026: DAY 35
UN Security Council to vote on Bahrain's resolution
On 02 April, Reuters reported that the UN Security Council will vote on a Bahrain-sponsored resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. However, China has said that it opposes authorizing any use of force. Diplomats told Reuters that the meeting and the vote are scheduled to be held on Saturday morning. The draft resolution finalized by Bahrain, the current chair of the UN Security Council, would "authorize all defensive means necessary" to protect shipping. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani said that Bahrain was looking for a unified position from the council. He added that Iran's unlawful actions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten global interests and require a decisive response.
China's envoy to the UN, Fu Cong, opposed authorizing the use of force in his remarks to the council on Thursday. He said that if the Security Council legitimises the use of force, it would escalate the conflict and lead to serious consequences. On 02 April, in a meeting with 40 other countries, Britain expressed support for Bahrain's resolution. The secretary-general of the Arab League also stated that the 22-member League backed Bahrain. In order to be adopted, Bahrain's resolution requires nine votes in the Security Council, with no vetoes from the five permanent members.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/bahrain-hopes-vote-revised-hormuz-resolution-friday-2026-04-02/

Trump threatens to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure as Hormuz crisis persists
On 03 April, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with attacks on civilian infrastructure following a US strike on a major bridge. On 2 April, President Trump posted footage on Truth Social showing damage to the newly constructed B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj after US strikes. The bridge was set to open to traffic this year. In a subsequent post praising the US military, he wrote "Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants." President Trump also threatened the Iranian leadership regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He said that Iran "knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!" He made these comments after US oil prices rose by eleven per cent on Thursday. The UK also chaired a meeting on the reopening of Hormuz without producing an agreement.
Iran's Foreign Minister responded to Trump's threats by stating that the US cannot force Iran to surrender by striking civilian infrastructure and unfinished bridges. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also responded by threatening to attack all US and Israeli assets in the region, especially fuel, energy and economic centres. Iran also claimed to have downed an F-35, on which the US didn't comment. Another Iranian attack hit a major desalination and power plant in Kuwait.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-vows-target-more-iranian-infrastructure-nations-seek-open-hormuz-2026-04-03/

02 APRIL 2026: DAY 34
The US has all the cards, Iran has none: President Trump
On 02 April, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump stated in a televised speech on Wednesday night that the US military had nearly accomplished its goals in Iran, but offered no clear timeline for ending the monthlong war and vowed to bomb the country back into the "Stone Ages." Trump further claimed that they have destroyed Iran's navy and air force, and crippled its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. In his address from the White House, he stated, “We have all the cards. They have none.” He spoke about other unresolved issues, including the status of Iran's enriched uranium and access through the Strait of Hormuz. He further stated that once the war ended, the strait would “naturally’ open. As the war approaches its fifth week, he declined to lay down any concrete plans of ending the war apart from claiming that the US would finish the job “very fast”.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tell-wary-public-that-iran-war-goals-have-been-accomplished-prime-time-2026-04-01/

UK to host talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
On 02 April, Reuters reported that the UK will host talks on Thursday to form a coalition of nations to explore options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The virtual meeting will be chaired by the UK's Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, and will be attended by 35 countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and the UAE. The US will not attend the meeting. This meeting follows US President Donald Trump's address to the nation, in which he said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was the responsibility of the nations that rely on it most. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday that the meeting would assess viable diplomatic and political measures to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire is reached. Officials said the talks on Thursday would be the first formal meeting of the group, followed by more detailed discussions involving military planners. One official said that any plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would focus on ensuring the waterway is mine-free and that tankers are protected. Mr Starmer added that reopening the strait would require "a united front of military strength and diplomatic activity" while working with the shipping industry.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-host-talks-with-35-countries-reopening-strait-hormuz-2026-04-02/

Using force to keep Hormuz open is unrealistic, says President Macron
On 02 April, Reuters reported on French President Emmanuel Macron dismissing calls for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling such an approach “unrealistic” amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. His remarks come after President Trump urged allies to take stronger action to restore access to the crucial waterway. Speaking during a visit to South Korea, Macron warned that any military attempt to secure the route would be prolonged and dangerous, exposing vessels to threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and ballistic missiles. Instead, he emphasised that reopening the passage must come through diplomatic engagement with Tehran. Macron added that France and its European partners are working to build a post-conflict coalition to ensure safe navigation, underscoring a preference for negotiation over escalation in safeguarding global energy flows.
https://www.reuters.com/world/macron-says-it-is-unrealistic-open-hormuz-strait-by-force-2026-04-02/

01 APRIL 2026: DAY 33
Trump threatens NATO exit, claims Iran seeking ceasefire
On 01 April, the CNN World reported that US President Donald Trump has escalated tensions with NATO, signalling a possible US withdrawal from the alliance amid deep divisions over the ongoing Iran war. Ahead of a televised address, President Trump claimed that Iran’s president has sought a ceasefire, though the assertion remains unverified and disputed by Tehran. In an interview with the Telegraph, President Trump labelled NATO a “paper tiger,” accusing member states of failing to support US military operations. His criticism has intensified over the weeks, particularly targeting allies for refusing to assist in reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump has repeatedly questioned NATO’s relevance, even suggesting the US “never needed” the alliance. The rift stems largely from the February 28 strikes on Iran, which allies say they were not consulted on. European resistance has since hardened, with several nations distancing themselves from the conflict. Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg had earlier warned of President Trump’s intent to rethink US commitments, while current Chief Mark Rutte now faces the challenge of holding the alliance together. As tensions grow, European countries are expected to boost their own defence capabilities, but the potential exit of the US threatens to fundamentally reshape NATO’s future.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/01/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-oil

Iran attacks Kuwait and Qatar
On 01 April, Reuters reported that an oil tanker leased to state-owned Qatar Energy was hit by an Iranian cruise missile on Wednesday ‌in Qatari waters, the defence ministry said. A total of three missiles were launched on Qatar, out of which two were intercepted, while one hit the Aqua one fuel oil tanker, but caused no casualties. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and QatarEnergy said that the vessel, located thirty-one kilometres north of Qatar's Ras Laffan ‌industrial hub, which is the site of the world's largest gas plant, sustained damage above the waterline, but no environmental impact was reported. Reuters also reported that an Iranian drone attack struck fuel tanks ‌at Kuwait International Airport on Wednesday, sparking a massive fire but causing no casualties, as confirmed by Kuwait's state news agency KUNA. According to the civil aviation authorities, the attack has caused major damage to the Kuwait Aviation Fuelling Company.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/tanker-hit-by-two-projectiles-off-qatar-one-unexploded-ukmto-says-2026-04-01/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kuwait-says-iran-drone-attack-sets-airport-fuel-tanks-ablaze-no-casualties-2026-04-01/

Bulgaria: Iran warns Bulgaria over the use of airports by US military aircraft
On 01 April, Reuters reported that Iran has warned Bulgaria not to let the US use its airports for planes taking part in military operations against Iran. On Wednesday, Stanislav Balabanov, a deputy in Bulgaria's "There is such People" party, presented a note from Iran dated 18 March. In the note, Tehran had protested against US military refuelling aircraft being parked at Sofia's Vasil Levski Airport. The note stated that Iran has the right to take all necessary actions to protect its national interests, security, and sovereignty in accordance with international law. Bulgarian Deputy Foreign Minister Marin Raikov confirmed this note in a statement to reporters, adding that Bulgaria is not at war. He said that Bulgaria isn't hosting any combat aircraft for military operations and that Sofia maintains diplomatic relations with Tehran. He added that the US military planes that landed at Sofia Vasil Levski Airport were part of a NATO deployment. He mentioned that the Bulgarian parliament has not authorised any military actions in the Middle East.
https://www.reuters.com/world/iranian-authorities-warned-bulgaria-not-let-us-use-airports-2026-04-01/

UK pivots toward EU amid Iran war fallout
On 01 April, Reuters reported that Prime Minister Keir Starmer signalled a strategic shift toward closer ties with the European Union, citing global instability triggered by the Iran war and growing tensions with Donald Trump. Speaking in London, Starmer said Britain’s long-term national interest now lies in strengthening economic and defence cooperation with Europe. The move comes as relations with Washington deteriorate, with Trump repeatedly criticising Starmer for refusing to join the US-led war on Iran and issuing latest warnings of quitting NATO. However, he reaffirmed that the UK would not be pressured into direct involvement, though it has allowed limited defensive operations. Highlighting a broader policy shift, Starmer said an upcoming UK-EU summit would focus on rebuilding ties post-Brexit, while ruling out rejoining the single market or customs union. He also announced that Britain would host talks with international partners to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route disrupted by the conflict. With over 30 countries expected to participate, the UK is positioning itself as a key diplomatic and security coordinator. This marks a notable tilt back toward Europe in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-requires-closer-eu-partnerships-due-volatile-world-starmer-says-2026-04-01/

Pakistan and China propose a five-part peace plan for the Middle East
On 1 April, The Guardian reported that Pakistan and China have released a joint five-part proposal for peace in the Middle East. In the past few weeks, Pakistan has emerged as a crucial proponent of a ceasefire and has recommended Islamabad as the centre for peace talks. Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, flew to Beijing on Tuesday for a one-day meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, to negotiate an end to the war. According to a statement from China’s foreign ministry, the trip was intended to strengthen cooperation between China and Pakistan on the ongoing conflict in Iran and to make new efforts to advocate for peace. While Beijing condemned the initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran, it has maintained distance from the ongoing war, while negotiating with Tehran for the safe passage of its own oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. However, in a statement after Tuesday’s meeting, Pakistan and China have jointly called for an immediate ceasefire. They have demanded the safety of waterways, including the blockaded strait, and have also launched a five-part peace initiative.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/31/pakistan-china-propose-five-part-peace-plan-middle-east

31 MARCH 2026: DAY 32
Trump urges the UK and allies to secure their own oil supplies from the Strait of Hormuz
On 31 March, the US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that countries such as the United Kingdom should show some courage, head to the Strait of Hormuz, and secure oil for themselves. He emphasised that nations can no longer rely on the United States for protection. This remark comes amid a backdrop of several US allies scaling back or refusing to participate in the US–Iran war. In the same post, Trump also reiterated his claim that Iran had been largely “decimated” and that the most difficult phase of the war was over.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c8jke9v9xv9t

Iran: Explosions in Isfahan, as Trump shares striking footage
On 31 March, President Trump shared a video showing a massive explosion in Isfahan. The footage captured multiple blasts, followed by intense fires that lit up the night sky. While Trump provided no context, media reports suggest the video may be linked to joint US-Israeli strikes on a key ammunition depot in the city. However, the authenticity of the clip could not be independently verified. Citing a US official, The Wall Street Journal reported that the strike involved 2,000-pound (approximately 900-kg) bunker-buster bombs, targeting fortified underground facilities. The attack reportedly triggered secondary explosions, producing large fireballs and shockwaves.

The incident has heightened fears of further escalation as the conflict enters its second month, even as countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey continue diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/explosions-in-isfahan-trigger-iran-missile-response-strikes-hit-israel-amid-rising-tensions/videoshow/129919925.cms

US: Gas prices hit USD 4 per gallon for the first time since 2022
On 31 March, US gas prices hit USD 4.02 per gallon, crossing the USD 4 mark for the first time since 2022. Over the month of March, gas prices in the US have risen by USD 1 per gallon. The price of diesel has also increased by USD 1.70 since the conflict in the Middle East began, with the average now being USD 5.45 per gallon. During March, US crude oil prices have increased by more than 50 per cent, crossing the USD 100 per barrel mark for the first time since July 2022.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/31/business/us-gas-prices-usd4-intl

Pakistan hosts foreign ministers of Turkiye, Egypt and UAE
On 30 March, Pakistan signalled its willingness to host direct talks between the United States and Iran as part of a broader regional effort to de-escalate the ongoing US-Iran War. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated that Pakistan would be “honoured to facilitate meaningful talks” for a lasting settlement, emphasising diplomacy as the only viable path to peace. He held discussions with counterparts from Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, focusing on regional stability and secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated support for collective efforts to end hostilities. Meanwhile, Dar’s visit to China aims to shape a framework for potential US-Iran talks, with Beijing backing Pakistan’s mediation role. The European Union has also supported dialogue, though Iran remains cautious, stressing the need for realistic and fair negotiations.

Italy denies permission to US aircraft to land in Sicily
On 31 March, Italy refused to give permission for US military aircraft to land at the Sigonella airbase in Sicily last week. According to Corriere della Sera, an Italian daily, "some US bombers" were supposed to land in Sicily before going to the Middle East. The report said the aircraft were denied permission because Washington had neither sought Rome's clearance nor consulted Italy’s military leadership. As per the treaties signed between Italy and the US, Washington is required to obtain prior clearance before using any Italian military installation.

An Italian government statement said that "Italy acts in full compliance with existing international agreement" and that all requests to use Italian military facilities are examined on a "case-by-case basis." It further added that there was no friction with any international partner and that Italy’s relationship with the US is solid. The US embassy made no comments.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/

30 MARCH 2026: DAY 31
Trump says the US is in talks with the ‘New’ Iranian regime
On 30 March, the BBC reported that US President Trump had engaged in “serious discussions”. President Trump described this as a new and “more reasonable” regime in Iran, raising hopes of ending ongoing US military operations. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that “great progress” has been made in the talks, but warned that if a deal is not reached soon, the US could take strong military action. He said key Iranian infrastructure, including power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, could be targeted.

President Trump also stressed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, calling it critical for global trade. He framed the warning as retaliation for American lives lost under Iran’s previous leadership. The situation remains uncertain, though Trump expressed confidence that an agreement is likely.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c8jke9v9xv9t

Iran calls the US peace proposals "unrealistic, illogical and excessive"
On 30 March, Reuters reported that Iran described the US peace proposals as "unrealistic, illogical and excessive." Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran had received messages from intermediaries which indicated that Washington was willing to negotiate. This announcement came after a meeting of the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Islamabad to discuss mediation of the conflict. However, Mr. Baghaei criticised the US proposals in a press conference on Monday. He said Iran's position is clear and "We are under military aggression. Therefore, all our efforts and strength are focused on defending ourselves." A Pakistani official also told Reuters that it is unlikely that any direct US-Iran talks will be held this week.

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran had been meeting directly and indirectly. In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Trump also said that the US and Iran had made great progress, but "if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be," and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the US will respond with heavy strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-calls-irans-current-leaders-very-reasonable-pakistan-prepares-host-talks-2026-03-30/

Iran attacks Kuwait and Israel
On 30 March, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had attacked a power and water desalination plant in Kuwait. It resulted in the death of one Indian worker and damaged a building at the site, which was confirmed by the Kuwaiti Ministry of Electricity. However, Iran’s military operational command Khatam al-Anbiya made a contradictory statement, claiming that the attack was carried out by Israel. Al Jazeera’s Malik Traina confirmed that on 29 March, 14 missiles and 12 drones were detected in Kuwaiti airspace, and several of those drones were targeting a military camp, where 10 servicemen were injured. Qatar has condemned the attack and has affirmed full solidarity with Kuwait. While Reuters reported that Israel's Fire and Rescue Service has confirmed that an industrial building and a fuel tanker at Israel's Oil Refineries, in the northern city of Haifa was hit ‌by debris from an intercepted missile. It is still unclear whether the missile was fired by the state of Iran or by the Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, who were both firing at the same time.
https://www.reuters.com/world/

27 MARCH 2026: DAY 28
Only one-third of Iran's missiles have been destroyed, says Reuters
On 27 March, Reuters reported that the US can confirm with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's missile arsenal. The status of another third is unconfirmed, but US strikes most likely damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in Tehran's underground network of tunnels and bunkers. This assessment contrasts with the claims made by US President Donald Trump. He had commented on Iran's remaining arsenal, saying that Tehran "had very few rockets left." He had also acknowledged the threat posed by Iran's remaining missiles and drones to any US operations in the Strait of Hormuz. In a televised cabinet meeting, Trump said that even ninety-nine per cent destruction of Iran's missiles is unacceptable because the remaining one per cent could destroy billion-dollar ships.

President Trump grants Iran a ten-day extension on the Hormuz deadline, as Israel escalates attacks on missile sites; Iran rejects the 15-point proposal
On 27 March, Reuters reported that President Trump had extended his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days to 6 April, pausing threats to destroy its energy plants. This move comes after Tehran rejected a 15-point US proposal including nuclear dismantlement and missile curbs. Meanwhile, Iran has barred shipping from US-Israel allies via the IRGC, urging evacuations near US bases, and vowed Gulf energy strikes if attacked. This follows the news regarding the consummation of indirect talks via Pakistan, which is said to be in the process of preparation.

Reuters also reported that Israel has escalated its strikes on missile sites, killing 15 in Qom and hitting Urmia Housin. As of now, the estimated casualties are over 1,900 dead and 20,000 injured in Iran, according to the Red Cross. Global energy prices continue to rise, with oil hitting USD 111/barrel (up 50 per cent) and US diesel hitting a record USD 7.17/gallon.

The US deploys uncrewed drone boats
On 27 March, Reuters reported that the US has deployed uncrewed drone speedboats as part of its operations against Iran. It also confirms the usage of such vessels in an active conflict. The Pentagon stated that unmanned surface vessels are being used for maritime patrols under Operation Epic Fury to strengthen surveillance in the Middle East. According to Central Command spokesperson Tim Hawkins, the Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft (GARC) vessels have logged over 450 patrol hours and covered more than 2,200 nautical miles. The deployment reportedly reflects the growing use of sea drones in modern warfare, particularly after Ukraine used similar systems against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Iran has also reportedly used sea drones to attack oil tankers in the Gulf in recent weeks. Although the US has not confirmed offensive use, officials state that unmanned systems help improve maritime monitoring and reduce the need for manned naval operations despite earlier technical problems.

The Kharg Island: Drones, mines heighten risks for US troops to seize the island
On 27 March, Reuters reported that President Trump is weighing a ground operation to seize Kharg Island. The Island is a strategic location that controls about 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and lies near the Strait of Hormuz. While analysts state that US forces could seize the island quickly, occupation risks include drone, missile, and mine attacks, prolonging the conflict. They also warn against Iran’s potential retaliation by targeting shipping, escalating instability, and disrupting global energy supplies. Furthermore, Former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel said holding the island would require significant logistical support, increasing troop vulnerability.

Israel and Lebanon: War between Hezbollah and Tel Aviv causes rampant displacement as communal tensions rise in Beirut
On 27 March, Reuters reported that the war between Israel and Hezbollah had fuelled political and economic strains due to the displacement of Shi'ite Muslims. The enmity further deepens between the Iran-backed group and its opponents in Lebanon. The administration led by PM Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun has banned Hezbollah's military wing, calling for talks with Israel, and demanded Iran's ambassador leave. At the same time, Israel has threatened Gaza-like destruction in Lebanon. Since 02 March, more than one thousand people have been killed in Lebanon, and one-fifth of the total population has been displaced. The Israeli military has ordered the Shi’ite Muslims to evacuate the southern regions, forcing them to find shelter in other parts of the country. Many have found shelter in hotels and vocational colleges.

26 MARCH 2026: DAY 27
The US and Iran: Trump warns Iran to "Get Serious" as Tehran reviews US peace proposal
On 26 March, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump issued a blunt warning to Iran, demanding it take peace negotiations seriously or face irreversible consequences. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed Iran had been "militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback" and was "begging" for a deal. Dismissing Iranian negotiators as "very different and strange," he warned: "They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK." Iran, meanwhile, confirmed it is reviewing a US proposal to end the nearly four-week-old conflict. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi acknowledged that messages are being exchanged through friendly nations, but stopped short of calling it a negotiation. "We have no intention of negotiating," Araqchi stated, though his acknowledgement of the review process hints at a guarded willingness to engage if Iranian demands are met. Indirect talks are currently being relayed through Pakistan, with Turkey and Egypt also supporting mediation efforts. The US proposal reportedly demands Iran dismantle its nuclear programme, curb its missile capabilities, and effectively cede control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's counter-demands are equally steep security guarantees against future military action, war compensation, formal control of the Strait, and inclusion of Lebanon in any ceasefire deal.

Israel: PM Netanyahu hails killing of Iranian Naval Commander as proof of US-Israel cooperation
On 26 March, the BBC reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guards naval commander Alireza Tangsiri "yet another example of cooperation" between Israel and the United States. In a video message in Hebrew, Netanyahu said Israel continues to "forcefully strike" targets across Iran, signalling no let-up in military operations. Netanyahu echoed Defence Minister Israel Katz in highlighting Tangsiri's role in Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. "This man had a great deal of blood on his hands," Netanyahu said, framing the strike as a shared achievement toward what he described as the "common goal of achieving the objectives of the war."

Lebanon: Israel aims to seize eight per cent of Lebanese territory for buffer zone against Hezbollah
On 26 March, Reuters reported that Israel has stated it will seize a chunk of southern Lebanon to create a buffer zone against Hezbollah. On 4 March, Israel had ordered Lebanese civilians to leave the area south of the Litani River, two days after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, joining the US-Israeli war on Iran. This river runs east from the Mediterranean Sea and lies 19 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border. Eight percent of Lebanese territory lies south of the Litani. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) has set up new fortifications and destroyed villages south of the river. Israel considers southern Lebanon to be a stronghold for Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Earlier this week on 24 March, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz marked the escalation of Israeli plans. He announced that the IDF would control the security zone up to the Litani. Israel's military spokesperson, Effie Defrin, has also said that the IDF would define the Litani as the "northern security line." Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, made his first comments on these plans on Tuesday. He said "We are simply creating a larger buffer zone." The Lebanese government has so far made no comments regarding Israel’s plans. Hezbollah referred to Israel's decision as an "existential threat" to Lebanon. Hezbollah added that they would fight against it. So far this month, Hezbollah has fired rockets into Israel from both the north and south of the Litani, leading to one death in northern Israel.

Pakistan: Israel removes top Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf from hit list following Islamabad’s intervention
On 26 March, Reuters reported that Israel removed Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf from its hit list after Pakistan requested the United States to press Israel not to eliminate them. A Pakistani source told Reuters that "We told the U.S. if they are also eliminated then there is no one else to talk to, hence the U.S. asked the Israelis to back off." The Wall Street Journal first reported that two senior Iranian officials had been temporarily removed from Israel's hit list in order to negotiate a peace deal. However, that report made no mention of Pakistan in it. Pakistan's Military and Foreign office did not respond to any requests for comments. Furthermore, Israel's military and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office also did not respond.

24 MARCH 2026: DAY 25

Iran launches waves of missiles on Israel; calls Trump's statement of dialogue as fake news
On 24 March, Reuters reported that Iran launched successive waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Missiles struck Tel Aviv, tearing through a multi-storey apartment building while air raid sirens blared across the city. Rescue teams scrambled to search for civilians trapped in the rubble. Despite Trump's diplomatic overtures, including a five-day pause on threatened strikes against Iran's power plants, Tehran showed no signs of standing down. Iran's foreign ministry made only a vague reference to "initiatives to reduce tensions," stopping well short of acknowledging any direct engagement with Washington. Earlier, on Monday, the US President Trump claimed "very good and productive" talks were underway to halt the escalating conflict. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, swiftly dismissed those claims as "fake news," strictly denying any negotiations had taken place.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-sends-waves-missiles-into-israel-dismisses-trumps-talk-negotiations-fake-2026-03-24/

Oil prices surge again, after Iran denies talks with the US
On 24 March, Oil prices rose after Iran denied that it had held negotiations with the US to end the war. On Monday, US President Trump stated that the US had held talks with Iran, which produced "major points of agreement." Following this announcement, crude oil prices had dropped by 10 per cent. However, on Tuesday, Iran denied that it had held talks with the US. Following that, Brent futures rose 1.8 per cent to USD 101.77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 2.5 per cent, to USD 90.34. Macquarie Group, a major global financial services firm based in Australia, said Brent could reach USD 150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut until the end of April.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-markets-assess-supply-risks-after-iran-denies-us-talks-2026-03-24/

Lebanon: Israel will occupy up to the Litani River in Lebanon, warns its Defence Minister
On 24 March, Israel's Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will occupy Lebanon up to the Litani River. In a meeting with the military chief of staff, Katz said that Israel was creating a defensive buffer up to the Litani, which meets the Mediterranean Sea approximately 20 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border. Since 13 March, the IDF has destroyed five bridges over the river and accelerated the destruction of Lebanese villages near the Israeli border with Lebanon. Katz said that the IDF aims to establish a forward defensive line in Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah-linked infrastructure in the region, including homes that Katz said function as "terrorist outposts." He further added that this approach was similar to that taken by the IDF in Gaza.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-military-occupy-swathe-southern-lebanon-defence-chief-says-2026-03-24/

Pakistan: Media reports indicate Islamabad is willing to mediate between the US and Iran
On 24 March, the BBC and Reuters reported that Pakistan was willing to mediate between the US and Iran. According to Dawn, PM Sharif had a telephone conversation earlier with Iran’s President. BBC even reported that US Special Envoy Witcoff could travel to Islamabad for the talks. Earlier today, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson informed that Doha is not mediating between the US and Iran. On Monday, President Trump talked about a dialogue with Tehran and pausing the military strikes on Iran for five days. Iran has denied the same as “fake news” and continued to launch missiles on Israel today.

21 MARCH 2026: DAY 22

The US: Trump talks of "productive conversations" with Iran and extends the US deadline to strike Iran's power plants; Iran denies it, and threatens to retaliate, targeting Israel’s power plants and communications technology infrastructure
On 23 March, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the US and Iran have had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution" of their hostilities. As a result, he wrote that he had instructed the US Department of War to postpone all planned military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and power plants for five days. On Saturday, Trump had threatened that all of Iran’s power plants would be destroyed if Tehran failed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

Iran's top military command responded directly to these threats and warned that Tehran would retaliate and target Israel's “power plants, energy and information and communications technology infrastructure” along with all other power plants in the Middle East countries that host US bases. The Iranian operational command further added that if the US carries out any attacks against Iran's power infrastructure, then the Strait of Hormuz would be completely closed until Iran rebuilds the destroyed facilities. Iran's Fars News Agency, which is deeply affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), denied that any direct or indirect talks had taken place between the US and Iran. The news agency also added that President Trump had decided to back down from his initial threats after the IRGC promised to retaliate against all power stations in the Middle East.

Energy Crisis: The Chief of the International Energy Agency (IEA) says keeping the Hormuz Strait open as the "single most important solution" to address the global energy crisis
On 23 March, International Energy Agency Chief Fatih Birol, speaking at Australia's National Press Club, warned that the global economy faces severe threats from the ongoing Iran war and that no country is immune if the conflict persists. He drew comparisons with past crises - the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, which had caused a loss of roughly 10 million barrels per day. The current crisis has already exceeded that, with losses of approximately 11 million barrels per day. Similarly, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted around 75 BCM of European gas supply, the present crisis has pushed total losses to nearly 140 BCM, almost double. Around 40 energy assets across nine countries have been severely damaged. The IEA has released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilise markets, and is consulting governments across Europe, Asia, North America, and the Middle East on potential further releases. He was unequivocal that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open remains the single most critical solution to the crisis.

Lebanon: Israel to expand attacks against Hezbollah
On 23 March, the BBC reported that the Israeli military had approved plans to expand ground and air operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, raising fears of a large-scale invasion. Chief of General Staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir authorised "targeted ground operations and strikes" in what officials described as a "prolonged operation."Defence Minister Israel Katz ordered forces to destroy bridges over the Litani River, approximately 30km from the Israeli border. These bridges are mainly used by Hezbollah to move reinforcements and to demolish homes in Lebanese border villages, mirroring tactics used in Gaza.
More than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since the escalation began, including 118 children and 40 health workers, with over a million displaced. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the strikes as a "prelude to a ground invasion" amounting to "collective punishment against civilians."The current escalation follows Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and ongoing Israeli strikes despite a ceasefire agreed in November 2024.

21 MARCH 2026: DAY 22

The US: President Trump considering to “wind down” military operations against Iran; Lists five key objectives that the US is close to achieve
On 20 March, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States is getting very close to meeting its objectives in the war against Iran and is considering winding down its military efforts in the Middle East. In his post, Trump detailed five key objectives which he said the US was close to achieving. First, degrading Iran's missile program. Second, destroying Iran's military industry. Third, destroying Iran's Navy, Air Force, and anti-air capabilities. Fourth, never allowing Iran to get close to nuclear capability and ensuring the US is quick to respond to any such development, and fifth, protecting all US allies in the region. Shortly after President Trump's post, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote on X "the President and the Pentagon predicted it would take approximately 4-6 weeks to achieve this mission."

Diego Garcia: Iran fired two missiles but failed to strike the base, reports WSJ; UK authorises US to use its bases to strike Iran missile sites targeting ships in Hormuz
On 20 March, The Wall Street Journal, citing multiple US officials, reported that Iran fired two missiles toward Diego Garcia but failed to strike the US-UK military base. One missile failed in flight, while a US warship launched an SM-3 interceptor at the second, although it remains unclear whether the interception succeeded. The BBC noted the attempt occurred before the United Kingdom agreed to permit the United States to use British bases against Iranian sites targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Diego Garcia, about 3,800 km from Iran, is considered beyond the range of Iran’s missiles. The airbase is strategically located and can accommodate long-range bombers. It has long served as a launchpad for military operations in the Middle East. However, its role in the US strikes on Iran has remained limited, as the UK permitted the use of its bases only for operations targeting the interests of the UK and its regional allies.

On 20 March, the UK government authorised the US to use its bases; a Downing Street statement said the agreement included “U.S. defensive operations to degrade the missile sites and capabilities being used to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Starmer was “putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran." This development follows PM Starmer’s initial rejection of the US request to use British bases, along with repeated criticism from President Trump that Starmer was not doing enough to support US efforts in the conflict.

India and Iran: PM Modi condemns attacks on critical infrastructure in call with Iran’s President Pezeshkian
On 21 March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, noting that they threaten regional stability and disrupt global supply chains. He reiterated the significance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and emphasised that shipping lanes must remain open and secure. The Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Prime Minister expressed deep concern over the evolving security situation and reaffirmed India’s consistent position that all issues must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. He also appreciated Iran’s continued support in ensuring the safety and security of Indian nationals in the country. This marks the second such conversation between the two leaders since the conflict began.

20 MARCH 2026: DAY 21
Iran attacks an oil refinery in Kuwait; Israeli strikes kill an IRGC spokesperson
On 20 March, Reuters reported that Iran attacked an oil refinery in Kuwait while Israel killed a spokesperson of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as the escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran continued. Iranian state television confirmed that Ali Mohammad Naini, spokesperson for the IRGC and its deputy of public relations, was killed in strikes by the US and Israel. Naini’s killing forms part of a series of high-profile targeted strikes that have significantly impacted Iran’s establishment in less than three weeks, reported Al Jazeera. Earlier in the week, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a prominent figure in Iran’s establishment, was killed in a strike alongside his son and several aides. Within the same 48-hour period, Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij paramilitary forces, and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib were also confirmed dead. On 20 March, the Israeli military stated that it had also killed Esmail Ahmadi, a senior intelligence figure part of the IRGC’s Basij unit, in an attack on Tehran earlier in the week. As per media reports, Iranian authorities did not comment on Israel’s claim regarding Ahmadi’s death.

The US and Israel: President Trump and Netanyahu disagree over the gas field attack; US officials state they have different objectives in the war
On 20 March, The Hindu reported that US President Donald Trump condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to attack the South Pars gas field. Trump told Netanyahu not to repeat the kind of attack Israel ‌carried out on the world's largest gas field. The Guardian reported that Netanyahu also confirmed that Israel acted alone, but did not clarify whether Trump was made aware of the decision. Furthermore, he stated that President Trump was not “dragged” into the war by him, amid growing speculations that the two leaders have differing war aims. Moreover, the attack has prompted Iran to retaliate against energy infrastructure in other West Asian countries, damaging the world's largest gas plant in Qatar. This is the first notable disagreement between the two leaders since the US-Israel and Iran conflict started. In a social media post on 18 March, Trump remarked that he “knew nothing about this particular attack," even as three Israeli officials told Reuters the strike was coordinated with the United States. The White House declined to comment further when asked about the information from the remarks of the three Israeli officials. Furthermore, top US officials stated that the US and Israel have different objectives in the war. The US air campaign has focused on decimating Iran's missile programme; meanwhile, Israel is focused on toppling the Islamic regime that took over in 1979.

Europe, Canada and Japan: Joint statement condemns Iran, pledges support to stabilise global markets
On 19 March, the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Canada and Japan released a joint statement. which condemned Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on civilian infrastructure, especially Gulf-owned commercial tankers, oil and gas infrastructure. The statement, demanding Iran halt its attacks, said: "We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817." The joint statement further emphasised that any attacks on global energy shipping routes and freedom of navigation threaten international peace and security. It welcomed the International Energy Agency's decision to coordinate a release of strategic oil reserves to maintain global energy prices. The statement also committed to providing support to petroleum-producing nations to increase global output. The statement further stated that they would also aid the most affected nations through multilateral mechanisms such as the UN.

The US: Pentagon seeks USD 200 billion more for the war with Iran amid backlash; 'It takes money to kill bad guys,' says Pete Hegseth
On 20 March, Reuters reported that the Pentagon had requested more than USD 200 billion in supplemental funding from Congress to cover operations. This has received strong pushback from Democrats and some Republicans despite record defence spending already approved in recent budgets, including USD 840 billion for fiscal 2026. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth defended the request by stating that “It takes money to kill bad guys.” The officials estimate the first six days cost over USD 11 billion, and daily expenses now run USD 1-2 billion. Meanwhile, the administration has approved roughly USD 7 billion in additional arms to the UAE (including Patriot PAC-3 missiles and CH-47 Chinooks) on top of USD 16.5 billion in other announced regional sales. Discussions are also underway about deploying thousands more US troops to the region. This is argued to be potentially used to secure oil tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz or seize control of Iran’s critical Kharg Island oil export hub. No final decision has been made on the ground.

19 MARCH 2026: DAY 20
The US: Washington's objectives in Iran stay unchanged, says the US Defence Secretary
On 19 March, Reuters reported that Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said US objectives in Iran remain unchanged, even as discussions over increased military funding continue. His remarks suggest that the focus is still on achieving core military goals rather than expanding the scope of the conflict. He also claimed that the US military has struck seven thousand targets in Iran, additionally damaging or sinking over one hundred and twenty Iranian ships. Pete Hegseth. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US government “may unsanction the Iranian oil” that is already being shipped. It amounts to about 140 million barrels, and the US could also release more oil from its own strategic reserves to combat the global energy crisis in light of escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Oil and Natural gas prices have soared by nearly 10 per cent, reaching USD 118 a barrel. In an attempt to reduce prices, last week the US removed sanctions on Russian oil at sea and even allowed Iranian-linked ships and companies to transport and sell Russian oil on the open market.

Trump considers deploying troops in Iran
On 18 March, Reuters reported that a US official, along with three other people familiar with the matter, disclosed that the Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of US troops to the Middle East. These considerations primarily concern securing the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island. Quoting sources, the Reuters report said the operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz would mainly be conducted by the US Air Force and Navy. They further added that the US might deploy troops to the Iranian coastline. The official also said that the Trump administration was discussing the deployment of troops to Kharg Island, which is a major economic hub that accounts for 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports. On 13 March, the US had bombed Iran's military assets on the Island and threatened to destroy the oil infrastructure. Military experts suggest that taking over the Island would be a better option. However, this would also risk the lives of US servicemen as the Kharg Island lies within the range of Iranian drones and missiles.

Saudi Arabia: Foreign Minister warns patience in Gulf is not “unlimited”
On 19 March, Al Jazeera reported Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister’s remarks that Gulf states possess “very significant capacities and capabilities” to respond to continued attacks by Iran. Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud called on Tehran to immediately “recalculate” its strategy, and put forth that tolerance of its attacks on his country and the neighbouring Gulf states is limited. “The patience that is being exhibited is not unlimited,” he added. Prince Faisal’s remarks followed a meeting of foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic countries in Riyadh earlier on 19 March to discuss the escalation of the war. According to the Foreign Minister: “The level of accuracy in some of this targeting… indicates that this is something that was premeditated, preplanned, preorganised and well thought out.” This comes in the backdrop of recent developments, including Iranian attacks on Gulf energy sites such as Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility and the UAE’s Habshan gas facility. Prince Faisal further put forth that Iran’s approach reflects a long-term strategy and that trust has been completely broken. “If Iran doesn’t stop … immediately, I think there will be almost nothing that can re-establish that trust,” he added.

18 MARCH 2026: DAY 19
Iran says shift unlikely in nuclear doctrine, pushes for a new Hormuz protocol; “This is America’s war,” says Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi
On 18 March, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated in an interview that Iran will maintain its position of being against the development of nuclear weapons. He also stated that the Gulf must draft new rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that the new protocol must allow free passage only when it is aligned with Iranian and regional interests. He also stated, “This is America’s war.”

Gulf countries look for alternative sea routes amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade
On 18 March, according to media reports, the Gulf countries are looking for alternate routes, as Iran continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, Gulf countries have begun shipping via pipelines that bypass the strait to address the situation. The East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu has become Saudi Arabia’s pivot for increasing shipments. According to the IEA’s March Oil Market Report, flows have surged to a record daily export of 5.9 mb/d on March 9, and the pipeline is expected to reach its full capacity of 7 mb/d within a few days. The UAE is also raising exports through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which connects onshore fields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Between March 1 and 10, the pipeline averaged 1.8 mb/d, reaching the line’s reported maximum capacity of around 1 mb/d before the crisis. While Gulf nations struggle to find alternatives to Hormuz, Iran has continued to ship oil at a rate of 1.1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day.

Israel strikes Lebanon again, targeting central Beirut today
On 18 March, Reuters reported that Israeli warplanes struck central Beirut in the early hours of Wednesday. It was seen destroying apartment buildings in what officials described as some of the most intense bombardment of the Lebanese capital in decades. In the Bachoura district, Israel has flattened an entire building it claimed was used by Hezbollah, while strikes on two other central districts killed at least 10 people with no prior warning given to residents. Over 900 people have now been killed across Lebanon and 800,000 forced to flee their homes.

Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib killed, claims Israel
On 18 March, Al Jazeera reported that Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, claimed that Esmail Katib, Iran’s Intelligence Minister, was killed along with other senior ministry figures in an overnight strike by the Israeli Army in Tehran. According to Iran International, Esmail Katib has served in the Judiciary and was appointed as the Intelligence Minister in 2021. He is believed to be closely associated with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. This news is followed by Israel’s killing of top Iranian security official Ali Larijani and the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij force on 17 March. However, there has been no confirmation from Iranian authorities so far regarding Esmail Khatib’s death.

17 MARCH 2026: DAY 18
Israel: Tel Aviv targets Iran’s security officials; Defence minister claims to have killed Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council
On 17 March, Israel's Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, announced that Israel had eliminated Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), along with Gholamerza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary force, in separate strikes. So far, Iran has not confirmed either of these claims. Ali Larijani was appointed as the Secretary of the SNSC following US strikes on Iran in June 2025. He also played a key diplomatic role in Iran's foreign affairs. If Larijani's death is confirmed, then he would be the second senior-most leader killed by Israel, following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The Iranian state media released a note handwritten by Ali Larijani, which commemorated the lives lost in the recent conflict. However, this note is expected to be written hours before the strike and doesn't confirm if he is alive. An Israeli official was also noted saying that "there was no chance he survived this attack."

Europe: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas calls for a diplomatic solution; UK PM Starmer talks about a “viable plan”; Germany says “This is not our war”
On 17 March, Reuters reported on European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas asking the US and Israel to end the war with Iran, stressing that Europe will not deploy troops in a conflict it did not initiate. According to Reuters, “Kallas also said the door was not closed to European participation in efforts to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz but it would be most likely to come as part of a diplomatic solution.”
Earlier, Keir Starmer said discussions on a “viable plan” are ongoing, while Emmanuel Macron proposed a maritime coalition only after the conflict’s peak subsides. Germany has outright distanced itself, stating: “This is not our war.” Meanwhile, China, Japan, and South Korea have called for de-escalation and are reviewing limited responses. There are no indications that any of these countries are willing to commit forces, underscoring a broad international reluctance to enter the conflict.

World Food Programme (WFP): The UN agency predicts that the US-Iran crisis escalation could push 45 million people into acute food insecurity
On 17 March, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) stated that global acute hunger could reach record levels in 2026 as a result of escalation in the Middle East. In a recent analysis, the WFP estimated that nearly 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict continues and oil prices remain above USD 100 per barrel. This would bring the total to 318 million already affected worldwide. Previous shocks, such as the 2022 war in Ukraine, pushed global hunger to 349 million; the WFP indicates that we could face a similar situation if the Middle East conflict continues. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping are already raising fuel and fertilizer costs. Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia could face the greatest risks due to import dependence. According to WFP’s projections, there is a possibility of a 21 per cent increase in food-insecure people in West and Central Africa, 17 per cent in East and Southern Africa, and over 24 per cent in Asia. This comes in the backdrop of severe funding shortfalls for the WFP. The UN agency notes that an increase in food insecurity without a corresponding increase in resources could be catastrophic for some of the world’s most vulnerable and famine-prone countries.

16 MARCH 2026: DAY 17
Israel: Tel Aviv plans three more weeks of strikes against Iran; IDF spokesperson says "thousands of targets ahead" as
On 15 March, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) stated that it had planned detailed operations against Iran for at least the next three weeks. The Israeli military has declared that thousands of targets still exist in Iran which it has yet to hit. Israeli Army Spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Derrin declared that the IDF is ready, in coordination with the United States military, to carry out operations against Iran “ through at least the Jewish holiday of Passover, about three weeks from now." He also stated that Israel has deeper plans for "the three weeks beyond that." The IDF aims to strike Tehran's command nodes, security infrastructure, ballistic missile systems and nuclear reactors. He emphasised that the IDF is working according to its objectives and "not working according to a stopwatch or timetable." These objectives, he noted, were to severely weaken the Iranian regime and its military capacity to strike Israel.

UK: PM Starmer says "UK won't be drawn into a wider war"
On March 16, the UK PM Keir Starmer announced that he has no intention of drawing the UK into the regional war. His statement follows President Trump's demand to deploy the Navy in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Starmer declared that his primary objective is to secure the safety of the British people in West Asia. For him, the UK has three key priorities: protection of British citizens in West Asia; safety of the UK and its allies; and to work towards a swift resolution.

India-Iran talks aim to ease shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
On 16 March, Reuters reported that India has expressed guarded optimism that ongoing strategic outreach with Iran could help restore smoother passage for Indian vessels through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. Indian officials believe recent talks have already shown early signs of easing disruptions to shipping routes essential to the country’s energy security. As part of these negotiations, Tehran has reportedly asked New Delhi to release three tankers - Asphalt Star, Al Jafzia, and Stellar Ruby, that were detained by India in February on allegations of identity concealment and illegal ship-to-ship transfers near Indian waters. The vessels are currently anchored off Mumbai. During the discussions, Iran has also requested supplies of medicines and medical equipment, while its ambassador recently met officials from India’s foreign ministry to advance the talks. Despite India’s official stance that there is no formal exchange arrangement, diplomatic engagement appears to be yielding gradual results. Iran has already allowed two Indian LPG tankers to transit the Strait, offering some relief as at least 22 Indian-flagged vessels and over 600 Indian seafarers remain in the Gulf region awaiting safe passage.

Dubai: Drone attack sparks fire near the International Airport.
On 16 March, a major fire erupted at the Dubai International Airport, as drone strikes hit a fuel tank near the facility amid the US-Israel and Iran conflict, further disrupting the region. Flight operations were temporarily suspended at one of the busiest airports in the world, with Air India cancelling all of its flights to Dubai for the day. Dubai authorities later confirmed that civil defence teams were immediately deployed to curtail the damage and successfully contained the fire after two hours. According to official reports, no injuries have been reported so far. More than five hours after the drone attack was reported, officials announced that flight operations at the airport were gradually resuming for select destinations. The UAE authorities also announced that their systems were intercepting missiles and drones launched from Iran, as defense alarms were rung in several parts of the city after the attack.

Israel launches targeted ground operations against Hezbollah in parts of southern Lebanon
On 16 March, Israel expanded its military operations in southern Lebanon, deploying additional forces as part of a widening ground offensive against Hezbollah. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said troops from its 91st Division have begun “limited and targeted” ground operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure and strengthening Israel’s forward defence along the border. According to Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani, the operations focus on specific militant positions and are intended to prevent attacks on northern Israeli communities, though officials declined to specify how far the troops would advance. The escalation follows a barrage of rockets fired by Hezbollah on March 2, which the group said was in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Since a ceasefire was reached in November 2024, Israel has maintained several military positions in southern Lebanon, but recent hostilities have intensified cross-border clashes. Israeli air raids have also targeted multiple towns in the region, including Khiam, a strategic Hezbollah stronghold near the border. The broader regional conflict, linked to ongoing Israeli and US military actions against Iran, has drawn much of the Middle East into the crisis, raising fears of further escalation and deepening humanitarian consequences across the region.

Africa: The US-Iran war disrupts supply chains, raising food and energy concerns
On 16 March, countries in Africa are heavily dependent on fertilisers imported from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. Almost fifty-four per cent of Sudan’s, thirty per cent of Somalia’s and twenty-six per cent of Kenya’s fertilisers arrive through this route from the Middle East. The Gulf states produce urea and other phosphate fertilisers because of abundant, cheap natural gas. The prices of oil, gas and fertilisers have soared since the start of the war, affecting vulnerable people employed in the informal sector, especially in Africa. African exports of food products to the Middle East have been affected, while the rise in crude oil prices has benefited countries like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola. African economies are also vulnerable due to their greater dependence on foreign markets, high debt levels, budgetary pressures, volatile commodity exports, and weak infrastructure. Countries like Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia are bracing for the potential shock by taking necessary steps such as strengthening strategic fuel reserves and introducing a special fuel subsidy.

15 MARCH 2026: DAY 16
ANALYSIS
The UN and the Iran-US War:
UNSC Resolution 2817 between “Clear and Unified Message” and “Manifest Injustice”

Lekshmi MK

What happened?
On 11 March, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2817, addressing the escalating tensions in the Middle East. 13 countries voted in favour, with Russia and China abstaining.

The resolution condemns recent attacks targeting civilians and critical infrastructure in the region. It calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and urges all parties to exercise restraint and adhere to international humanitarian law. It also demands the release of hostages and detainees and encourages diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

Following the vote, several members stressed the need to protect freedom of navigation and prevent further regional escalation. The representative of the United Arab Emirates described the resolution as sending a “clear and unified message” against attacks on sovereignty. Meanwhile, Russia and China criticised the resolution as unbalanced, arguing that it failed to reflect the broader causes of the war, while Iran called it a “manifest injustice.”

What is the background?
1. Escalation of tensions in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz
The rapid escalation of hostilities in the Gulf has compelled the UNSC to respond. Iran’s attacks on neighbouring states and commercial vessels have increased the risks of drawing regional countries, proxy groups, and external powers into direct involvement. The targeting of ships and infrastructure in and around the Strait of Hormuz has also threatened to transform regional tensions into a global security issue.

2. Growing concerns over global energy security and maritime routes
A key factor behind the resolution is the strategic importance of Gulf maritime routes to the global energy system. The Strait of Hormuz serves as one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, carrying a significant share of global crude shipments. Disruptions to shipping or threats to close the strait can rapidly affect energy prices, insurance costs, and supply chains worldwide. As attacks on vessels and infrastructure intensified, concerns grew that the war could destabilise global markets and disrupt energy flows to major importing regions. The Security Council, therefore, acted to safeguard the stability of international trade and energy supply networks.

3. Growing divisions within the Security Council shaped the diplomatic response
The UNSC resolution 2817 reflects the widening geopolitical divisions within the UNSC. While most members supported a resolution condemning attacks and calling for restraint, they differed in their interpretations of the crisis and the responsibility for escalation.

What does it mean?
First, the importance of energy routes. Any disruption to the most critical energy chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can affect global energy markets, trade flows, and economic stability. By addressing attacks targeting maritime security, the Security Council signalled the importance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and protecting critical energy transit routes from conflict-related disruptions.

Second, concerns over a biased resolution and selective framing of the war. The resolution also drew criticism; a section argued that the draft disproportionately focused on actions attributed to Iran while giving limited attention to the broader context of US-led military operations involving its regional partners.

Third, divisions within the Security Council continue to shape collective responses. The voting pattern on the resolution illustrates how geopolitical divisions influence the UNSC decision-making. At the same time, the UNSC’s ability to adopt the resolution despite abstentions demonstrates an effort to maintain a minimum consensus on the need for restraint. This reflects a broader trend in which great-power rivalry shapes Security Council deliberations.

Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

14 MARCH 2026: DAY 15
US strikes Iran’s Kharg Island; Tehran warns of retaliation
On 14 March, President Trump warned that the US would continue strikes on Kharg Island if Iran maintained disruptions to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island, located in the northern Gulf, is Iran’s main oil export terminal and handles nearly 90 per cent of the country’s crude shipments. As the backbone of Iran’s energy exports, attacks on the island could severely disrupt Iran’s oil revenues and global energy markets. Trump has claimed US forces had already “totally obliterated” several military targets on the island. The Pentagon has also signalled an intensified campaign, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth indicating the deployment of record numbers of fighters, bombers and strike missions. In response, Iran has warned to retaliate against continued strikes and defend its energy infrastructure. Iranian officials warned that any continued attacks on Kharg Island would trigger retaliatory strikes against US interests and energy infrastructure in the region.

Trump wants UK, France, Japan and other countries to send forces to keep the Strait open, safe and free
On 24 March, the BBC referred to posts from President Trump asking China, UK, France and Japan to send forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz free. The report quoted Trump saying, “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!.”

Hamas asks Tehran not to target neighbouring countries
On 14 March, Reuters reported Hamas asking Iran not to target its neighbouring countries. According to the statement, Hamas said: "While the group affirms Iran's right to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, it calls upon our brothers in Iran not to target neighbouring countries.” While Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, has targeted Israel following the US-Iran War, Hamas and the Houthis have not attacked Israel or other Western targets. According to Reuters, Hamas has also asked the international organizations to stop the war.

13 MARCH 2026: DAY 14
US Defence Secretary says Iran’s supreme leader wounded and in hiding during the strikes
On 13 March, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in hiding, “wounded” and “likely disfigured” following recent strikes. According to the US officials, the Iranian leadership has gone underground as military operations target missile stockpiles and weapons production facilities. Tehran has not confirmed the extent of the injuries, with an Iranian official stating that Khamenei was only lightly wounded and remains active in his duties.

President Trump waives sanctions on Russian oil to offset war-driven price surge
On 13 March, the oil prices surged past USD 100 per barrel after several cargo vessels were struck in the Gulf. In response to rising prices, the United States said it would temporarily ease sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil.

Germany and the US: Chancellor Merz questions Washington's decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil
On 13 March, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised the US for its decision to temporarily relax sanctions on Russian oil, stating that the decision could weaken pressure on Vladimir Putin despite the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The temporary lifting of sanctions by the United States Department of the Treasury allows countries to purchase Russian oil already in transit for 30 days. Chancellor Merz stated that easing sanctions at this time was “wrong” and that, in response to Russia's little willingness to negotiate, Washington should increase pressure on Moscow. He stated that support for Ukraine should continue amid the war in Iran. Germany’s economy minister Katherina Reiche expressed concern that easing restrictions could allow Russia to continue benefiting financially and it might effectively contribute to fund Vladimir Putin’s war efforts. After G7 discussions, Emmanuel Macron stated that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz "in no way" justify relaxing sanctions on Russia. Amidst this, global oil markets remain under pressure as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupt energy trade. The International Energy Agency approved the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to stabilise markets, though rising fuel prices may still appear to be a political challenge for the Donald Trump administration.

Continuing attacks across the region as a US aircraft crash kills four in Iraq
On 13 March, footage analysed by international media showed an explosion near a pro-government rally after new strikes were reported in the city. The attacks are part of a broader campaign targeting military infrastructure across Iran. Iranian forces have also launched missiles and drones toward Israel and other regional targets, signalling continued retaliation. Separately, the US military confirmed that four crew members aboard a refuelling aircraft that crashed over Iraq have died. Officials stated that the incident was not caused by hostile or friendly fire.

13 MARCH 2026: DAY 14
ANALYSIS
The US-Iran War, Week Two:
Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout
Rohini Reenum

In the news
The US-Israeli offensive
Between 5 and 12 March, the US and Israel continued the heavy bombardment of Iran, especially its capital, Tehran, with targets expanding from military and strategic sites to energy infrastructure.

On 10 March, the U.S. Central Command claimed to have “eliminated” 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. On 12 March, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said approximately 6,000 targets had been struck in Iran since the War began. On the same day, CENTCOM claimed that 90 Iranian vessels were damaged or destroyed, including more than 60 ships and over 30 mine-laying vessels.

Iranian Response
Between 7 and 11 March, Iran launched waves of drones and missiles at critical facilities, including Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field and the Abadan refinery. On 10 March, Saudi Arabia announced that it had intercepted six ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base and several drones over the eastern city of Hafar al-Batin. On the same day, a swarm of Iranian drones struck the Ruwais industrial city in Abu Dhabi, forcing the state oil giant ADNOC to shut down the refinery as a precautionary measure. On 11 March, multiple drones struck fuel storage tanks at the Port of Salalah and Duqm, in Oman, causing massive fires. On the same day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran remained committed to regional peace and outlined three conditions to end the war: “recognition of Tehran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression.”

On 12 March, Iran's UN Ambassador said that Tehran was not going to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, but added that it was Iran's right to preserve the security of the key shipping route. On the same day, in his first televised address, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to “avenge the blood” of Iranians killed in the current War, advised the Gulf countries not to host US bases, and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Developments at the United Nations
On 12 March, the UN Security Council voted in favour of a resolution sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and co-sponsored by a record 135 member states, demanding “immediate cessation” of attacks by Iran against Gulf countries and Jordan. The resolution also termed these attacks “a breach of international law and a serious threat to international peace and security.” The resolution also acknowledged the right of these countries to respond, either individually or collectively, under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Further, it condemned Iran’s attempts to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab Al Mandab. The resolution, however, made no reference to the US-Israeli aggression, leading Russia to abstain and terming the text “extremely unbalanced." China also abstained, reasoning that the text did not adequately reflect “the broader dynamics of the conflict.”

On the same day, Russia introduced a draft resolution urging “all parties,” without naming them, to immediately stop military activities and refrain from further escalation. The resolution received four votes in favour, two against, and nine abstentions.

Issues at large
1. A brief note on the role of the Supreme Leader and the process of his election
The post was created following the 1979 Iranian Revolution and instituted as the office of “rahbar,” meaning “leader.” The Constitution recognizes the Leader as the highest authority in the country. He is the head of state and commander in chief of the army and wields wide-ranging powers; he oversees the appointment and dismissal of important government and military officials, like the highest commanders of the armed forces and security bodies, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the head of the state broadcaster, the head of the judiciary, and the chief of general staff. He also determines the general political direction of the government, and is solely responsible for declaring war, peace, and mobilization of the armed forces, and approves the appointment of the President after the election. The Leader is elected by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is a deliberative body mandated with overseeing the Supreme Leader’s worthiness to lead the country. The members of the Assembly are elected every eight years by the Guardian Council, half of whose members are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the other half recommended by the Head of the Judiciary (who is himself a Leader-appointee).

2. Tehran’s expanding targets and threats
During the second week of the 2026 conflict, Tehran dramatically expanded its target list, shifting from a narrow focus on military assets. Like the first week, Tehran has continued its diffused attacks across the Middle East, targeting primarily the Gulf countries alongside Israel, Iraq, and Jordan. However, from restricting its attacks on US and allied military installations in the earlier week, Iran has now also started targeting energy infrastructure. Reports have also confirmed an attack on the Dubai International Airport. Iran has also started attacking vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened to lay mines. This has driven the price of crude oil past the USD 100 mark. Additionally, it has issued warnings to tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia as “future targets,” highlighting their role in supporting the US-Israeli campaign.

3. America’s shifting goalposts
While earlier announcing that the War would last four to five weeks, followed by an assertion that the US was prepared for a longer conflict, Trump has become increasingly evasive about any timeline for the war's conclusion. Interestingly, in his latest remarks, Trump has claimed that the War was pretty much over, citing the destruction of the Iranian Navy and Air Force. This is even though his other war objectives announced earlier are far from being achieved. Earlier claims of an active pursuit of regime change have taken a back seat, with Trump expressing only his displeasure with the non-consultation in selecting the new Supreme Leader. Trump has also, without providing any concrete evidence, claimed that the Iranian Navy and Air Force have been decimated and that the new supreme leader has been removed.

4. The significance of drone warfare
The use of drone warfare gained particular momentum since the start of the Ukraine War and has continued as a dominant strategy since. The low-cost, low-casualty weapon has become an important tool in asymmetric wars. Along with ballistic missiles, Iran has relied heavily on its drone capabilities to sustain pressure across the Middle East and raise the cost of war. Tehran’s drone strategy has relied on the principle of mass usage, wherein it uses high volumes of low-cost drones in attack waves to overwhelm sophisticated and expensive air defense systems. For instance, to shoot down a USD 30,000 drone, a USD 4 million Patriot interceptor is used, which is indicative of Iran using exhaustion tactics. The drone waves also serve as bait for radar systems, forcing defenders to engage and reveal their positions. Given this dynamic, reportedly, Ukrainian military experts (who have massive experience in tackling Iranian drones being used by Russia) have arrived in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to help them defend against drones. A BBC report also suggested that other Ukrainian experts are helping the US do the same in Jordan.

5. Faultlines at the UN
During the second week of the conflict, the United Nations became a battleground for competing diplomatic narratives and brought to light international geopolitical faultlines. The overwhelming acceptance of the resolution tabled by the Gulf countries, supported by 135 UN General Assembly members, is indicative of the wider support for the GCC countries and Tehran’s diplomatic isolation. On the other hand, Russian and Chinese abstentions versus vetoes also indicate the limited extent of their diplomatic support for Iran at multilateral forums.

In perspective
First, in the second week, the Iran War has metastasized from a terrestrial military campaign, engulfing the region, into an evolving maritime-economic conflict. With Iran’s Supreme Leader and other officials at the helm, communicating defiance and demonstrating the capability to stick out a war of attrition, any hope of immediate negotiation with the US seems unlikely. This unlikelihood is compounded by President Trump’s trumpeting of war victory, threats of intensified attacks, and zero hints at a diplomatic turnabout.

Second, the international community has also failed to respond to the War in a balanced manner, generating global economic ramifications. By singling out Iranian attacks as “egregious,” without recognizing the role played by the US-Israel duo in sparking them, the international community has not only failed to address the nuances and contours of this decades-long rivalry but brought into question which countries can act in self-defense and which cannot, creating a hierarchy of legitimacy. This asymmetry of international legal application does not bode well for the role the United Nations was instituted to play for the cause of international peace and security.

13 MARCH 2026: DAY 14
ANALYSIS
Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation:
Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals

Brighty Ann Sarah

In the news
On 02 March, in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah launched strikes at Israel’s missile defence systems in the southern city of Haifa. Israel retaliated by carrying out "precise and targeted" strikes against "senior terrorist elements” of Hezbollah in Beirut. The strikes killed Hezbollah's intelligence chief, Hussain Makled and over 300 civilians.

On the same day, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned Hezbollah’s actions as “illegal,” and proscribed the group's military actions. He reiterated the government's full readiness to resume negotiations with Israel.

On 04 March, Israeli forces began ground incursions in Lebanon, taking over strategic areas. Lebanon, after the population was issued immediate evacuation orders. Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem asserted that the group “will not surrender no matter the sacrifices.”

On 10 March, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun called for direct negotiations with Israel with a four-point plan for a “complete truce,” but demanded the halt of Israeli strikes before any talks. He also levelled sharp criticism against Hezbollah for dragging the country into war.

On 11 March, the Financial Times reported that Israel had rejected Lebanon’s demands, insisting that all negotiations take place “under fire.”

Issues at large
1. The Hezbollah-Iran equation
Hezbollah emerged as a Shiite movement ideologically inspired by Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Its ideology is rooted in Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini's theological theories that demand expulsion of Western influence, destruction of Israel, allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader and establishment of an Islamic state. Funded and trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah positions itself as a “resistance” movement against Zionism and Western imperialism.

2. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict
The Hezbollah-Israel conflict started with the latter’s 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon. In 2006, a UN-brokered ceasefire and Resolution created a demilitarised buffer zone between Lebanon’s southern border and Israel along the Blue Line and the Litani River. The conflict renewed in October 2023, when Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, sparking nearly a year of border clashes and the killing of long-standing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Under a US brokered ceasefire in November 2024, Hezbollah was to withdraw north of the Litani River and disarm, while Israel was to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon and allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to take control. The latest outbreak is a complete violation of the ceasefire agreement, launching both states into a full-blown war.

3. The Hezbollah inside Lebanon
Hezbollah is a major political actor in Lebanon, supported by the Shia community and capitalising on widespread grievances over political and economic marginalization by the country’s Sunni and Christian elites. It also grew its support base by delivering social services more effectively than the chronically weak Lebanese government, including hospitals, schools, post-war reconstruction, and even its own micro-finance institutions, gaining grassroots loyalty unlike any other Lebanese faction. Hezbollah’s major political sway has impeded the administration from exercising control over the group and defers to the group on security matters in Shia-majority regions. However, since the 2024 ceasefire agreement, the administration has taken bolder moves towards curbing the group's militant activities, even attempting to disarm the faction and centralise the flow of weapons in the country. The government’s latest rebuke is the harshest condemnation, revealing the rift between the state and Hezbollah.

5. Significance of southern Lebanon
Southern Lebanon, sharing its borders with Israel, is strategically vital for Hezbollah, with the rugged terrain suited for guerrilla warfare. It has long been the theatre of Israeli-Hezbollah confrontations with major Israeli cities, including Haifa, Safed, and Nahariya, within range of attack. Israel also claims that Hezbollah has extensive military infrastructure across the area, including underground munitions factories, command bunkers and tunnel networks. The region is also home to a major Shia population and a Hezbollah stronghold. The Litani River, Lebanon’s largest river and a major source of water, also flows through the region. Israel perceives it as its natural border and insists that Hezbollah does not breach the Blue Line and cross beyond the river. Israel’s current ground operation is designed to dismantle Hezbollah’s military assets, depopulate the area and establish a secure buffer zone along the Litani River.

In perspective
The renewed conflict has provided Israel with a long-sought strategic opening to pursue its goal of eliminating Hezbollah as a military threat. Israel is unlikely to pursue diplomatic means with Lebanon and forgo the opportunity to militarily defeat the group, particularly since the administration lacks the capacity to disarm and neutralise the group.

The conflict threatens Hezbollah’s military role, already severely weakened by its previous confrontation with Israel. The group is also facing an unprecedented hardline stance from the administration that is likely to worsen. With Israel’s refusal to negotiate a ceasefire, Beirut is trapped in a highly constrained and precarious position.

12 MARCH 2026: DAY 13
The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, US embassies in the region to be immediately shut down, demands Iran’s new Supreme Leader in first public statement
On 12 March, Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since taking over as Iran’s new supreme leader, announcing that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed in order to pressure the adversaries. He also asserted that while Iran believes in friendship, the US bases in the region will continue to be attacked and should be immediately closed. Khamanei thanked the military for their service and stated that the resistance in Yemen and Iraq “will also do the job,” and “want to help” the Islamic revolution.

Tehran lays out three major conditions to end the war including reparations and guarantees against future aggression
On 11 March, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian laid out three key conditions to end the ongoing war– “recognising Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression,” he stated in a social media post. Iran has long upheld its civilian nuclear programme as a legitimate right of the country, but the announcement is the first time Iran has demanded reparations as a condition to end the conflict.

US intelligence declines the possibility of regime collapse as Tehran intensifies attacks
On 12 March, Reuters, in an exclusive report, revealed that Iran’s leadership is not under the risk of collapse and “retains control over the Iranian public.” The observations echo a recent Israeli report on the stability of the regime. Further, more Iranian drones were seen flying into Kuwait, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain and Oman despite US and Israeli claims that much of Iran’s stock of long-range weapons have been destroyed. Two more tankers in Iraqi ports were also struck by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats.

Israel-Hezbollah Confrontations: Hezbollah escalates strikes on Israel as Tel Aviv declines Beirut’s request to halt firing to facilitate negotiations
On 12 March, Hezbollah intensified strikes against Israel, announcing Operation “Eaten Straw,” launching more than 100 missiles at Israeli targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said later that they had carried out some strikes with Hezbollah, “in a joint and integrated operation.” The strikes targeted areas including Israeli military bases in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Beersheba. In retaliation, Israel battered Beirut's southern suburbs. Israel has also turned down Lebanon administration's demands to halt the attack to initiate negotiations, asserting that the talks happen “under fire.”

11 MARCH 2026: DAY 12
IEA deliberates releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves
On 11 March, the International Energy Agency stated that it proposed releasing 400 million barrels per day from strategic oil reserves, adding that 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to make emergency reserves available to the market. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry also revealed plans to release around 80 million barrels from its private and national oil reserves.

Tehran strikes three more vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, warns the world to prepare for oil prices to hit USD 200 million
On 11 March, three more vessels were hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any ship passing through the Strait would be targeted. The IRGC statement highlighted that the ship was "fired upon by Iranian fighters," suggesting the first direct engagement by the Guards, who have previously fired missiles or drones. Iran's military spokesperson, Zolfaqari, later warned the world to "Get ready for oil be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilised."

Israel does not foresee a regime change or immediate end to the war, Reuters cites senior military officials
On 11 March, Reuters reported that Israel was uncertain that the war would lead to regime change and that "Washington is not close to instructing an end to the conflict." The report cites senior Israeli officials. Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated that the war would continue until Tel Aviv and Washington determined the time had come to end hostilities, but that Israel did not seek endless war.

Special Focus: The US-Iran War

Special Focus: The US-Iran War

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