Special Focus: The US-Iran War
The US-Iran War Daily Brief
News Reports I Briefs I Profiles I Analyses
Day 57, 25 April 2026, Saturday
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NIAS TWT Team 25 April 2026
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TWT SPECIAL COVERAGE: THE US-IRAN WAR 25 APRIL 2026: DAY 57 Iran to make offer satisfying US demands, claims Trump 24 APRIL 2026: DAY 56 Lebanon: Hezbollah lawmaker says that the ceasefire with Israel is meaningless after a three-week extension is announced 23 APRIL 2026: DAY 55 Meanwhile, the BBC reported that US forces have interdicted a sanctioned vessel that is transporting oil from Iran, reflecting the continued enforcement efforts. According to the defence department: "US forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean.” Further, President Trump stated on Truth Social that "I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be... that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.” "There is to be no hesitation,” he added. In this backdrop, negotiations remain stalled, with Iranian officials refraining from sending a delegation over the US blockade, alongside other reasons, as highlighted by media reports. Global Fallouts: Thirty million people pushed into poverty due to supply chain disruption, says UNDP chief 22 APRIL 2026: DAY 54 Iran: Tehran seizes and redirects two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after attacks are halted The US: Washington adopts Ukrainian counter-drone technology after Iranian strikes 21 APRIL 2026: DAY 53 The US-Iran Peace talks: President Trump says Tehran has "no choice but to send" delegates to Pakistan The War in Iran is generating the worst energy crisis in history, says IEA head 20 APRIL 2026: DAY 51 Lebanon: Israel warns Lebanese citizens not to return to areas marked by new maps 18 APRIL 2026: DAY 49 Trump claims that Tehran has agreed to all terms 16 APRIL 2026: DAY 48 13 APRIL 2026: DAY 45 Iran threatens to retaliate against the US blockade, calls it “piracy” and threatens targeting the Gulf ports NATO allies reject Trump’s Hormuz blockade plan, push for diplomatic solution China says the US blockade would be against international interests 11 APRIL 2026: DAY 43 Iranian officials claim that the US will release USD six billion of frozen funds Islamabad talks begin in Pakistan 10 APRIL 2026: DAY 42 Despite the tensions, preparations for the first US-Iran peace talks continued in Islamabad. Both sides were in place at the Serena hotel, with Pakistan mediating and describing the situation as “on track.” It noted that the de-escalation in Lebanon is a positive sign in this process. The US delegation is led by Vice President JD Vance, while Iran’s is headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Vance stated that he anticipated “positive negotiations” but warned Iran against attempting to “play” the US team. The talks are expected to address core disputes, including Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and regional influence, even as the war’s early economic impact begins to appear in US inflation data. UK: PM Starmer discusses Hormuz with President Trump amid reports of the US withdrawing troops from Europe 08 APRIL 2026: DAY 40 Trump stated he would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” as the US had “already met and exceeded all military objectives.” Iran agreed to regulate passage through the Strait and issued a ten-point plan, including complete cessation of war in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen; sanctions relief and compensation. Meanwhile in Lebanon, Israel not only stated that the ceasefire did not apply, but also escalated with their biggest air strikes yet on Hezbollah. What does it mean? What next? What does the 10-point proposal entail? Earlier proposals and their outcomes Despite Washington’s hardline demands against Tehran’s nuclear and missile programme, the acceptance of the latest proposal indicates the urgency to operationalise the Strait of Hormuz. It is likely that the proposal was accepted as an immediate attempt to halt hostilities and operationalise the Strait, while Iran's major demands might lead to contention. Who voted for and who voted against? And why? What does it mean? Oil prices fall below USD 100 as President Trump announces a two-week ceasefire Alongside, Iran indicated that it would halt its attacks if strikes against it stopped, further signalling willingness to allow controlled transit through the strait during the ceasefire. This measure could incrementally release an estimated 10-13 million barrels of oil a day that is "stranded" at the moment. However, uncertainty remains over implementation, security, and shipping logistics. The Strait of Hormuz is a very narrow passage that reportedly handles around 20 per cent of the world's oil trade. At the same time, it has been the core of escalating tensions, which has significantly impacted prices, increasing them by over 50 per cent. Hence, while the ceasefire can be seen as a way to provide short-term relief, it opens the door for the two sides to negotiate their differences. However, analysts warn that markets may remain volatile amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Strait of Hormuz: Iran suggests a new toll mechanism for the Strait transit US and NATO: President Trump welcomes Chief Rutte as Iran war strains alliance "China will continue to play a constructive role," says China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, after vetoing the Bahrain-led UNSC resolution China's UN envoy stated that adopting the draft in a circumstance where the US threatens the survival of a civilisation would have sent the wrong message. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz poses challenges for China’s energy security and export-oriented economy. In the long run, shipping delays, higher energy prices and rerouting around chokepoints will trigger an economic slowdown. In the meantime, China have been prioritising 'new-type power system.' The development of 'new-type power system' aims to establish a modern power system centred on renewables, using digital and smart technology. It is also crucial to the country's goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. On the whole, China has adopted a balanced, non-interventionist position, prioritising energy security, the BRI, and avoiding direct confrontation with the US. 07 APRIL 2026: DAY 39 Iran ignores Trump’s threats US strikes Kharg Island again as Vice President Vance says no change in strategy US: Trump rejects Iran’s 10-point peace plan Iran: IRGC claims attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex 06 APRIL 2026: DAY 38 Israel strikes major petrochemical site in Iran China's President Xi Jinping calls for the construction of a new energy system as the Iran war progresses 04 APRIL 2026: DAY 36 Iraq shuts Shalamcheh trade crossing after Iran airstrikes Trump considers broader cabinet shake-up as Iran war anxiety grows Pakistan: Tehran’s silence stalls Islamabad’s push for talks, says Dawn 03 APRIL 2026: DAY 35 ANALYSIS Rohini Reenum In the News Iran’s Response International Response President Trump’s Special Address On 1 April, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in an open letter addressed to the US public and shared by Iran’s state-run broadcaster PressTV, questioned whether President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy is “truly among the priorities of the US government today.” He also asserted that Iran was not against the American people and urged them to question “Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war?” Issues at Large Second, the Houthis' entry into the war expanded the conflict’s geography. With this, a fourth front of the war has opened, giving the Houthis the ability to target ships in the Red Sea. There are fears that the war is likely to expand further if the Houthis choose to exercise that option. This will be a significant escalation with worldwide economic ramifications and may lead other countries with economic stakes to join the war. The Houthis' statement also reveals that their entry was a calculated move and a strategic response to the Coalition of the Willing, likely to ease the mounting pressure on Tehran. The Houthis have also expressed solidarity with other Iran-backed groups – Hezbollah. This means that their attacks will continue even if there is a ceasefire between the US and Iran, as Israel has indicated it will continue its attacks against Hezbollah. Third, President Trump’s conflicting statements. His latest address early this week was a repetition of what he has been saying on his Truth Social platform and in other press briefings. The speech was also full of conflicting statements on the Iran war, in which he said the war has already been won, followed by an assertion that it should continue and that it will wrap up soon. Interestingly, his speech looked more like an argument for launching the Iran war, a move that is facing increased scrutiny in the US. In Perspective The entry of the Houthis and the formation of the Coalition of the Willing have increased fears that the War will metastasize into a global conflict with faultlines emerging across hemispheres, with significant ramifications for the world economy, which is already reeling under the Hormuz blockade. All eyes are now on President Trump’s 6 April deadline, which will define the course of the war. 03 APRIL 2026: DAY 35 02 APRIL 2026: DAY 34 UK to host talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz Using force to keep Hormuz open is unrealistic, says President Macron Iran: Explosions in Isfahan, as Trump shares striking footage US: Gas prices hit USD 4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 Pakistan hosts foreign ministers of Turkiye, Egypt and UAE Italy denies permission to US aircraft to land in Sicily An Italian government statement said that "Italy acts in full compliance with existing international agreement" and that all requests to use Italian military facilities are examined on a "case-by-case basis." It further added that there was no friction with any international partner and that Italy’s relationship with the US is solid. The US embassy made no comments. 30 MARCH 2026: DAY 31 President Trump also stressed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, calling it critical for global trade. He framed the warning as retaliation for American lives lost under Iran’s previous leadership. The situation remains uncertain, though Trump expressed confidence that an agreement is likely. Iran calls the US peace proposals "unrealistic, illogical and excessive" On Sunday, US President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran had been meeting directly and indirectly. In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Trump also said that the US and Iran had made great progress, but "if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be," and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the US will respond with heavy strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. Iran attacks Kuwait and Israel President Trump grants Iran a ten-day extension on the Hormuz deadline, as Israel escalates attacks on missile sites; Iran rejects the 15-point proposal Reuters also reported that Israel has escalated its strikes on missile sites, killing 15 in Qom and hitting Urmia Housin. As of now, the estimated casualties are over 1,900 dead and 20,000 injured in Iran, according to the Red Cross. Global energy prices continue to rise, with oil hitting USD 111/barrel (up 50 per cent) and US diesel hitting a record USD 7.17/gallon. The US deploys uncrewed drone boats The Kharg Island: Drones, mines heighten risks for US troops to seize the island Israel and Lebanon: War between Hezbollah and Tel Aviv causes rampant displacement as communal tensions rise in Beirut 26 MARCH 2026: DAY 27 Israel: PM Netanyahu hails killing of Iranian Naval Commander as proof of US-Israel cooperation Lebanon: Israel aims to seize eight per cent of Lebanese territory for buffer zone against Hezbollah Earlier this week on 24 March, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz marked the escalation of Israeli plans. He announced that the IDF would control the security zone up to the Litani. Israel's military spokesperson, Effie Defrin, has also said that the IDF would define the Litani as the "northern security line." Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, made his first comments on these plans on Tuesday. He said "We are simply creating a larger buffer zone." The Lebanese government has so far made no comments regarding Israel’s plans. Hezbollah referred to Israel's decision as an "existential threat" to Lebanon. Hezbollah added that they would fight against it. So far this month, Hezbollah has fired rockets into Israel from both the north and south of the Litani, leading to one death in northern Israel. Pakistan: Israel removes top Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf from hit list following Islamabad’s intervention 24 MARCH 2026: DAY 25 Iran launches waves of missiles on Israel; calls Trump's statement of dialogue as fake news 21 MARCH 2026: DAY 22 The US: Trump talks of "productive conversations" with Iran and extends the US deadline to strike Iran's power plants; Iran denies it, and threatens to retaliate, targeting Israel’s power plants and communications technology infrastructure Iran's top military command responded directly to these threats and warned that Tehran would retaliate and target Israel's “power plants, energy and information and communications technology infrastructure” along with all other power plants in the Middle East countries that host US bases. The Iranian operational command further added that if the US carries out any attacks against Iran's power infrastructure, then the Strait of Hormuz would be completely closed until Iran rebuilds the destroyed facilities. Iran's Fars News Agency, which is deeply affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), denied that any direct or indirect talks had taken place between the US and Iran. The news agency also added that President Trump had decided to back down from his initial threats after the IRGC promised to retaliate against all power stations in the Middle East. 21 MARCH 2026: DAY 22 The US: President Trump considering to “wind down” military operations against Iran; Lists five key objectives that the US is close to achieve On 20 March, the UK government authorised the US to use its bases; a Downing Street statement said the agreement included “U.S. defensive operations to degrade the missile sites and capabilities being used to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Starmer was “putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran." This development follows PM Starmer’s initial rejection of the US request to use British bases, along with repeated criticism from President Trump that Starmer was not doing enough to support US efforts in the conflict. 20 MARCH 2026: DAY 21 The US and Israel: President Trump and Netanyahu disagree over the gas field attack; US officials state they have different objectives in the war Europe, Canada and Japan: Joint statement condemns Iran, pledges support to stabilise global markets The US: Pentagon seeks USD 200 billion more for the war with Iran amid backlash; 'It takes money to kill bad guys,' says Pete Hegseth Europe: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas calls for a diplomatic solution; UK PM Starmer talks about a “viable plan”; Germany says “This is not our war” World Food Programme (WFP): The UN agency predicts that the US-Iran crisis escalation could push 45 million people into acute food insecurity 16 MARCH 2026: DAY 17 15 MARCH 2026: DAY 16 Lekshmi MK The resolution condemns recent attacks targeting civilians and critical infrastructure in the region. It calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and urges all parties to exercise restraint and adhere to international humanitarian law. It also demands the release of hostages and detainees and encourages diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation of the conflict. Following the vote, several members stressed the need to protect freedom of navigation and prevent further regional escalation. The representative of the United Arab Emirates described the resolution as sending a “clear and unified message” against attacks on sovereignty. Meanwhile, Russia and China criticised the resolution as unbalanced, arguing that it failed to reflect the broader causes of the war, while Iran called it a “manifest injustice.” 2. Growing concerns over global energy security and maritime routes 3. Growing divisions within the Security Council shaped the diplomatic response Second, concerns over a biased resolution and selective framing of the war. The resolution also drew criticism; a section argued that the draft disproportionately focused on actions attributed to Iran while giving limited attention to the broader context of US-led military operations involving its regional partners. Third, divisions within the Security Council continue to shape collective responses. The voting pattern on the resolution illustrates how geopolitical divisions influence the UNSC decision-making. At the same time, the UNSC’s ability to adopt the resolution despite abstentions demonstrates an effort to maintain a minimum consensus on the need for restraint. This reflects a broader trend in which great-power rivalry shapes Security Council deliberations. Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. 13 MARCH 2026: DAY 14 President Trump waives sanctions on Russian oil to offset war-driven price surge Germany and the US: Chancellor Merz questions Washington's decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil Continuing attacks across the region as a US aircraft crash kills four in Iraq 13 MARCH 2026: DAY 14 In the news On 10 March, the U.S. Central Command claimed to have “eliminated” 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. On 12 March, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said approximately 6,000 targets had been struck in Iran since the War began. On the same day, CENTCOM claimed that 90 Iranian vessels were damaged or destroyed, including more than 60 ships and over 30 mine-laying vessels. Iranian Response On 12 March, Iran's UN Ambassador said that Tehran was not going to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, but added that it was Iran's right to preserve the security of the key shipping route. On the same day, in his first televised address, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to “avenge the blood” of Iranians killed in the current War, advised the Gulf countries not to host US bases, and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Developments at the United Nations On the same day, Russia introduced a draft resolution urging “all parties,” without naming them, to immediately stop military activities and refrain from further escalation. The resolution received four votes in favour, two against, and nine abstentions. Issues at large 5. Faultlines at the UN 13 MARCH 2026: DAY 14 Brighty Ann Sarah In the news On the same day, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned Hezbollah’s actions as “illegal,” and proscribed the group's military actions. He reiterated the government's full readiness to resume negotiations with Israel. On 04 March, Israeli forces began ground incursions in Lebanon, taking over strategic areas. Lebanon, after the population was issued immediate evacuation orders. Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem asserted that the group “will not surrender no matter the sacrifices.” On 10 March, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun called for direct negotiations with Israel with a four-point plan for a “complete truce,” but demanded the halt of Israeli strikes before any talks. He also levelled sharp criticism against Hezbollah for dragging the country into war. On 11 March, the Financial Times reported that Israel had rejected Lebanon’s demands, insisting that all negotiations take place “under fire.” Issues at large 2. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict 3. The Hezbollah inside Lebanon 5. Significance of southern Lebanon The conflict threatens Hezbollah’s military role, already severely weakened by its previous confrontation with Israel. The group is also facing an unprecedented hardline stance from the administration that is likely to worsen. With Israel’s refusal to negotiate a ceasefire, Beirut is trapped in a highly constrained and precarious position. Israel does not foresee a regime change or immediate end to the war, Reuters cites senior military officials
Compiled by Rakshitha B, Rebecca Ann Oomen, Manik Dhawan
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Tehran refuses direct talks with the US, rejects “maximalist demands”
On 25 April, Reuters reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi outlined its demands and concerns regarding the US position after arriving in Islamabad. Araqchi held meetings with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and other high-level officials. A statement on Mr Araqchi's Telegram account said the minister "explained our country's principled positions regarding the latest developments related to the ceasefire and the complete end of the imposed war against Iran." Another Iranian diplomat commented on the US's demands and said that Iran will not accept any "maximalist demands." Washington dispatched President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad. However, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson posted on X that the Iranian delegation did not plan to meet with US representatives and would hold talks only with Pakistani officials.
On 25 April, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump said on 24 April that the Iranians planned to make an offer that would satisfy US demands. He added that the US was now dealing with "people that are in charge now." Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, stated the US had seen some progress from Iran and hoped for more developments this weekend. Vice President JD Vance is also ready to travel to Islamabad. Meanwhile, international flights also resumed from Iran's Imam Khomeini International Airport on Saturday. The first flights departed for Medina, Muscat and Istanbul.
(“Iran to make offer aimed at satisfying US demands, Trump says,” Reuters, 25 April 2026; “Iran says it won't accept 'maximalist demands' as Islamabad hosts peace push,” Reuters, 25 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-make-offer-aimed-satisfying-us-demands-trump-tells-reuters-2026-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-negotiators-go-islamabad-iran-says-no-direct-talks-2026-04-25)
The US-Iran Peace Talks: Foreign Minister Araqchi to join peace negotiations in Islamabad; Washington “not anxious” for a deal, says Pete Hegseth; US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz strengthens
On 24 April, Reuters reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is expected to join the peace negotiations in Islamabad. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Washington was “not anxious” for a deal with Iran and that "the ball is in [Iran's] court.” He asserted that Tehran has the chance to make a “good deal” if they abandon their nuclear weapons programme “in meaningful and verifiable ways.” Hegseth added that Washington’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is “growing and going global," and that no vessels will be allowed passage without US permission. US General Dan Cain stated that the US Command will maintain a strict blockade on all ports in Iran and is “prepared and postured to intercept” any transgressors. Thirty-four ships had been turned around so far, he said.
(“Iran's foreign minister to head to Islamabad, venue of US talks,” Reuters, 24 April 2026; “Pentagon chief Hegseth says US blockade on Iran going global,” Reuters, 24 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-extend-ceasefire-trump-seeks-best-deal-with-iran-2026-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-chief-hegseth-says-iran-has-chance-make-good-deal-2026-04-24/)
On 24 April, Reuters reported that Hezbollah said the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was meaningless as Israel continued to attack southern Lebanon. The group also added that it had the right to respond to such aggression. These comments came one day after US President Donald Trump announced a three-week extension on 23 April, following a meeting with Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors in Washington. The ceasefire agreement was previously set for 10 days and was scheduled to expire on 26 April. Ali Fayyad, a Lebanese Member of Parliament from Hezbollah, stated that "the ceasefire is meaningless in light of Israel's insistence on hostile acts." Despite the ceasefire, exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel persist in southern Lebanon, where Israel has established a military presence in order to secure a buffer zone. Fayyad added that any Israeli aggression against Lebanese figures gave Hezbollah "the right to respond proportionately."
(“Hezbollah says ceasefire 'meaningless' as fighting continues in south,” Reuters, 24 April 2026
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-mp-ceasefire-meaningless-light-israeli-attacks-2026-04-24/)
The US and Iran: Iran tightens control over the Strait following the collapse of peace talks; US forces interdict a sanctioned vessel in the Indian Ocean; Trump orders the US Navy to “shoot and kill any boat”
On 23 April, Reuters reported that Iran showed tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz after the collapse of peace talks. It released footage of commandos boarding commercial vessels, including the MSC Francesca, after claiming their seizure on 22 April. Iranian officials stated that ships crossing without permits had "faced the law.” The vice speaker of parliament also stated that the first revenue from the newly imposed transit tolls had been transferred to the central bank. Reuters reported that Iran has effectively restricted passage through the strait, linking any reopening to the lifting of the US blockade on its shipping.
("Iran shows off its control over strait after collapse of peace talks,” Reuters, 23 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-tightens-control-hormuz-after-us-calls-off-renewed-attacks-2026-04-23/; “US boards ship carrying Iranian oil, as Trump orders navy to shoot any boat laying mines in strait,” BBC, 23 April 2026. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c0mjev4kn9jt)
On 23 April, Reuters reported that over 30 million people would be thrust back into poverty by the impacts of the war, largely due to disruptions to fuel and fertiliser supplies. The report cites the UN Development Chief Alexander De Croo, who stated that "Food insecurity ?will be at its peak level in a few months – and there is not much that you can do about it.” He added that the crisis has already wiped out an estimated 0.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent of global GDP. In another report, Reuters also highlighted that the global economy is showing increasing strain from the Iran war's energy shock, with factories facing soaring production costs and even the services sector weakening. The euro zone has emerged as one of the hardest hit regions, with its headline PMI dropping from 50.7 in March to 48.6 in April, its input price index soaring to 76.9 from 68.9, and its dominant services sector plummeting to 47.4 from 50.2. The disruption stems largely from Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut off roughly 20 per cent of global oil supplies and significant LNG volumes. Beyond energy, the near-total halt of tanker traffic has disrupted global supplies of sulfur, helium crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, and fertilizer inputs, threatening food production. The IMF has responded by cutting its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 per cent from 3.4 per cent. Paradoxically, some economies, including Japan, India, the UK and France, have reported short-term output increases as companies accelerate production to get ahead of anticipated supply chain disruptions, with Japan recording its strongest factory output expansion since 2014, though analysts warn this effect will be temporary.
(“Iran war impact seeps ever deeper into global economy,” Reuters, 23 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iran-war-impact-seeps-ever-deeper-into-global-economy-2026-04-23/)
The US-Iran Ceasefire: Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely ahead of the new round of negotiations; Tehran undecided on further talks
On 22 April, CNN reported that President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran on the eve of its expiry and that a new round of talks was on hold. Trump asserted that Iran wanted the Strait of Hormuz open “so they can make 500 million dollars a day.” He further claimed that “Iran is collapsing financially!,” and is “starving for cash.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that Tehran is yet to decide whether to participate in the new round of talks, as Washington “has shown disregard and lack of good faith.”
(“Day 53 of Middle East conflict - Trump extends ceasefire,” 22 April 2026, CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel)
On April 22, Reuters reported that Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. The Hindu also reported that one of the vessels was headed to Gujarat’s Mudra port while the second ship was Liberia-flagged Epaminoda. Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim said that the Revolutionary Guards had seized two vessels for maritime violations and escorted them to the Iranian shores. This marks the first time Iran has seized ships since the war began in the last week of February. The Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy also cautioned that any act that may be considered a disruption to the order and safety in the strait would be considered a "red line”. Despite this, shipping executives at the FT Commodities Global Summit said that Asian shipowners may begin sailing through the Strait of Hormuz soon, amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, as they have a higher tolerance for risk. They can likely also pay the tolls. This is unlike the western firms that are more inclined to comply with the sanctions that are imposed.
(“Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after Trump halts attacks,” 22 April 2026, Reuters; “Asian shipowners to cross Hormuz before Western firms, executives say,” 22 April 2026, Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asian-shipowners-cross-hormuz-before-western-firms-executives-say-2026-04-22/)
On 22 April, Reuters reported that the United States military had begun using Ukrainian counter-drone technology at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia following the repeated Iranian drone and missile attacks on regional targets. The system, known as Sky Map, is a Ukrainian command and control platform designed to detect incoming drones and coordinate counterattacks using the interceptor drones. Ukrainian military personnel have recently arrived at the base to train US troops in operating this system. This move reflects Ukraine’s rapid advances in drone and counter-drone technologies developed during its war with Russia, where such systems have been widely used against Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Analysts noted that the adoption of Ukrainian technology also highlights gaps in US air and missile defence coverage. The base, which is located at about 640 kilometres from Iran, has faced several drone and missile attacks that damaged aircraft and infrastructure and resulted in casualties among US personnel.
(“Exclusive: US turns to Ukrainian counter-drone tech after Iran attacks, sources say,” Reuters, 22 April 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-turns-ukrainian-counter-drone-tech-after-iran-attacks-sources-say-2026-04-22/)
The US: Washington seizes Iran-linked tanker in international waters as truce deadline nears
On 21 April, the US military stated that it had seized a tanker linked to Iran in international waters, reflecting continued enforcement of its blockade as the two-week truce was coming close to expiring. According to Reuters, Washington expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran may proceed in Pakistan, with Tehran reportedly considering participation. However, time was running out as the deadline neared. The US military confirmed that it boarded the tanker Tifani “without incident.” The vessel, capable of carrying two million barrels of crude, was located near Sri Lanka and had indicated Singapore as its destination. The US Central Command stated: “As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran — anywhere they operate.” Iran did not comment on the boarding; however, media reports suggest this could challenge peace talks arrangements. Tehran said that the blockade of its ports constitutes a US violation of the truce and that it will not negotiate while the blockade is in place. (“Trump says he does not want to extend truce as expiry nears, US seizes tanker,” Reuters, 21 April 2026). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-positive-iran-deal-talks-still-uncertain-ceasefire-end-nears-2026-04-21/
On 21 April, the BBC reported that President Trump stated Iran has “no choice but to send” delegates to Pakistan for talks with the US. In an interview with CNBC, he reportedly expressed confidence that Washington would “end up with a great deal.” He described the naval blockade as a “tremendous success” and, when asked about extending the ceasefire, he stated: “I don't want to do that.” Trump later stated that: “I expect to be bombing 'cause that would be a better attitude.” According to Reuters, Tehran had not yet decided on its participation in the second round of peace talks in Islamabad. Pakistan officials noted that, if delegations attend, they are unlikely to arrive before 22 April, leaving only limited time to secure an agreement before the two-week truce expires. President Trump has warned of resuming hostilities, including potential attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, if his terms are not accepted. An initial round of talks held ten days earlier failed to result in an agreement. Subsequently, Tehran showed reluctance to engage in a second round this week, referring to the US’ refusal to lift its blockade and its seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel. (“Trump says he 'expects to be bombing' if no progress made in Iran talks,” BBC, 21 April 2026; “Trump says he does not want to extend truce as expiry nears, US seizes tanker,” Reuters, 21 April 2026).
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx297218m9vt
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-positive-iran-deal-talks-still-uncertain-ceasefire-end-nears-2026-04-21/
On 21 April, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the US is generating the worst energy crisis ever faced by the world. He noted that “the crisis is already huge, if you combine the effects of the petrol crisis and the gas crisis with Russia,” pointing to the overlapping pressures on global energy markets. The war has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. These disruptions compound earlier shocks from the War in Ukraine, which limited Russian gas supplies to Europe. The IEA chief had earlier assessed the situation as more severe than the crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. In March, the IEA authorised the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to stabilise rising oil prices. (“War in Iran is causing biggest energy crisis in history, IEA says,” Reuters, 21 April 2026). https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/war-iran-is-causing-biggest-energy-crisis-history-iea-says-2026-04-21/
US-Iran Peace Talks: Tehran rejects talks following Washington’s blockade of Hormuz and seizure of an Iranian vessel
On 20 April, Reuters reported that Tehran will abstain from the peace negotiations in Islamabad as the two-week ceasefire is set to expire. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the US has “violated the ceasefire from the beginning of its implementation,” citing Washington's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US’ capture of an Iranian vessel that attempted to breach the blockade. Security sources stated that chief negotiator Field Marshal Asim Munir had informed President Trump that the blockade would be a major obstacle to the talks. Baghaei also underscored that Tehran’s 10-point proposal, submitted prior to the first round of talks, will remain the basis for all negotiations and that Iran will “respond accordingly,” in the event of further aggression from the US or Israel. He accused Washington of showing a lack of seriousness toward diplomacy, stressing that Tehran would not change its stated demands and does not accept deadlines or ultimatums in matters concerning its national interests.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world-weighs-fate-mideast-ceasefire-after-us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-2026-04-20/
On 20 April, Reuters reported that Israel told residents of Southern Lebanon not to enter the belt of territory running the length of the Israel-Lebanon border and to stay away from the Litani River. This announcement comes after a ten-day ceasefire took effect between Israel and Hezbollah. However, the ceasefire remains fragile due to the presence of Israeli troops in Southern Lebanon, which aims to create a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon. The Israeli military published a map on social media which displayed a red line through twenty-one villages and said that no one should move into the area between the line and the border. This map also marked fifty other villages which civilians should avoid. The Israeli military published another map which marked its new deployment line in Lebanon. This line lies ten kilometres deep in Lebanese territory. Mahmoud Qmati, a senior Hezbollah official, told the residents of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut not to return to their homes because of risks of Israeli strikes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-entrenches-hold-south-lebanon-warns-residents-stay-out-2026-04-20/
Iran strengthens control over the Strait of Hormuz, reports Reuters
On 18 April, Reuters reported that Iran stated it was tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and at least two vessels reported coming under fire while trying to transit the waterway. Tehran has responded to the US blockade by calling it a violation of the ceasefire. Iran had initially announced its temporary reopening of the Strait following a US-brokered ten-day ceasefire agreement on Thursday between Israel and Lebanon after Israel invaded parts of Southern Lebanon. However, on Saturday, Iran's armed forces command declared that transit through the strait had reverted to a state of strict Iranian military control due to what it described as repeated US violations and acts of “piracy” under the guise of a blockade. According to maritime security and shipping sources, some merchant vessels received radio messages from Iran’s navy stating no ships were allowed through the waterway, and at least two vessels reported being hit by gunfire as they attempted to cross the strait. Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, stated that no date had been set for the next round of negotiations. At the same time, Trump has told Reuters there would probably be more direct talks between Iran and the US this weekend, which some diplomats have declared unlikely. Trump also added that the US blockade of Iranian ports would continue. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-he-has-good-news-iran-no-clarity-peace-deal-2026-04-18/
On 18 April, CBS News reported that US President Donald Trump stated that the Iranian regime had “agreed to everything” he proposed while discussing terms. This includes the US removing enriched uranium from the nation. Trump clarified that the removal would not involve US troops on the ground but would still involve “our (American) people.” Strangely enough, the Iranian foreign ministry released a statement in it was shared that “uranium is sacred to us [Iran]” and hence would not be transferred. Meanwhile, he also claimed that Tehran has agreed to stop backing proxy terror groups such as Hezbollah or Hamas.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-says-iranians-have-agreed-to-everything-including-removal-of-enriched-uranium/
Top American officials say that the US is ready to resume combat operations against Iran, reports Reuters
On 16 April, Reuters reported that the US armed forces are prepared to resume combat operations against Iran if a peace deal is not reached. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, in a briefing to the Pentagon, warned Iran against making poor choices which could lead the US to bomb its power and energy infrastructure. He added that the US also has intelligence about the movement of Iran's military assets. Furthermore, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that US armed forces were ready to launch major operations at "a moment's notice." He added that the US Navy would intercept any ship which refuses to comply with the American blockade of Iran, in both Iran's territorial waters and international Iranian-flagged waters. He said that so far, thirteen ships had chosen to turn around instead of breaking the blockade. The Trump administration on Wednesday had expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Iran while applying economic pressure through a naval blockade against Iranian-flagged vessels or any other vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-ready-restart-combat-if-iran-doesnt-agree-deal-says-hegseth-2026-04-16/
After the talks fail, Trump threatens Iran with a US naval blockade
On 13 April, Reuters reported on a US naval blockade of Iran’s ports in the Strait of Hormuz. This is likely to increase tensions in the ongoing conflict, raising fears of a broader regional confrontation. President Trump said the move is set to take effect at 10 am ET (1400 GMT), following the collapse of weekend ceasefire talks. The US military blockade would target all maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports, while allowing passage to vessels bound for non-Iranian destinations. Officials argue the strategy could cut off Iran’s key economic leverage and restore stability to global oil flows disrupted by the conflict. However, experts warn that enforcing such a blockade would require significant naval resources and could amount to an act of war.
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-trump-says-us-begin-naval-blockade-irans-ports-strait-hormuz-2026-04-13/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-will-not-back-blockade-strait-hormuz-pm-starmer-says-2026-04-13/
On 13 April, Tehran threatened to retaliate against the ports of Gulf countries, following the failed talks at Islamabad and Trump’s threat to blockade the Hormuz. Since the start of the war on 28 February, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own and stated that access to other countries will only be permitted under Iranian control and toll fees regulated by them. An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy," and warned that if Iranian ports were threatened, no port in the Gulf would be secure.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-blockade-iran-after-talks-fail-yield-a-deal-2026-04-13/
On 13 April, Reuters reported that NATO allies have refused to join President Trump’s proposed naval blockade of Iran-linked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, exposing fresh divisions within the alliance. The UK and France were against participating in the US-led operation, stressing the need to restore navigation through diplomatic rather than military means. The British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, said that the UK would not be “dragged into the war,” despite mounting pressure. French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a separate, multinational, defensive mission aimed at reopening the vital waterway once conditions stabilise. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged members to consider coordinated efforts, but consensus remains elusive. The refusal to back Washington’s blockade underscores growing transatlantic strains, as allies prioritise de-escalation and stability over direct military involvement.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-allies-refuse-join-trumps-strait-hormuz-blockade-2026-04-13/
On 13 April, Reuters reported that China stated a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would go against the international community's interests and urged calm and restraint by all sides. In Beijing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the UAE special envoy of the President of China, Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not serve the common interests of the international community. He emphasised that a fundamental way to resolve the crisis was a comprehensive ceasefire. Foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that he hopes both parties will abide by the temporary ceasefire arrangements and remain committed to them. He also added that China stood ready to "play a positive and constructive role" in resolving the crisis and called the weekend talks in Islamabad a step in the right direction toward easing tensions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-urges-restraint-over-us-blockade-strait-hormuz-backs-talks-2026-04-13/
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei injured, says Reuters
On 11 April, Reuters reported that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, is recovering from severe injuries sustained in an airstrike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, at the onset of the ongoing war. Mojtaba suffered significant facial disfigurement and possible leg injuries, though he remains mentally alert and actively engaged in governance through audio-linked meetings. His condition comes at a critical time, as Iran navigates high-stakes conflict and diplomatic talks with the United States. Despite his appointment in March, there has been no public appearance, image, or direct communication from him, fueling speculation about his health and authority. In Iran’s power structure, the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority, but analysts suggest Mojtaba may initially lack the consolidated influence his father built over decades. Meanwhile, institutions like the Revolutionary Guards are believed to be playing a dominant role in decision-making. Iranian officials have yet to confirm details of his condition, leaving much uncertainty around leadership at a pivotal moment.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-new-supreme-leader-has-severe-disfiguring-wounds-sources-say-2026-04-11/
On 11 April, Reuters reported that Iran said that the US has agreed to release Iran's frozen assets, which are currently being held in Qatar and other foreign banks. An Iranian source told Reuters Iran had demanded it in messages to the US and had received an agreement to release the assets. He added that the unfreezing of Iranian assets was linked to ensuring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Another source said the US would release USD six billion in frozen funds currently held in Qatar. These USD six billion were initially frozen in 2018 in South Korean Banks after the first Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran. In 2023, these funds were moved to Qatar as part of a prisoner exchange deal with Iran. However, the US froze them again after the 7 October attacks on Israel by Hamas. The US has denied the recent Iranian claims that it unfroze these funds, and the Qatar Foreign Ministry has made no comment.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iranian-source-says-us-has-agreed-release-frozen-iranian-assets-qatar-other-2026-04-11/
On 11 April, Reuters reported that US and Iranian officials met in Islamabad on Saturday to seek an end to their six-week war. The talks between Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, mediated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, lasted for two hours. The two sides have discussed several negotiations so far. Iran wants a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have killed nearly two thousand people. However, Israel and the U.S. have stated the Lebanon campaign is not part of the Iran-US ceasefire. Iran also wants the US to unblock Iranian assets and end sanctions, to acknowledge its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, where it aims to collect transit fees, demand compensation for all damage during the six-week war, and withdraw US combat forces from the region, which Trump plans to keep until peace deals have been reached. Whereas Washington has indicated that it is open to significant sanctions relief but only in exchange for concessions from Iran on its nuclear and missile programmes, it wants the Straight opened for oil tankers and other traffic without any limitations, including tolls. Israel and the US also want Iran's missile capabilities to be dramatically curtailed, which Tehran has declared as non-negotiable. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/what-are-main-talking-points-us-iran-negotiations-pakistan-2026-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-set-peace-talks-doubts-emerge-over-lebanon-sanctions-2026-04-11/
US and Iran: Strait of Hormuz remains shut, as JD Vance heads to Pakistan, anticipating “positive negotiations”; fighting persists in Lebanon
On 10 April, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, and fresh exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon happened, with both sides accusing each other of violations. US President Donald Trump criticised Iran for failing to reopen the strategic waterway and described it as a breach of the agreement. Meanwhile, Iran condemned ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, which killed over 250 people shortly after the truce was announced. Tehran insisted that the ceasefire should extend to its Hezbollah ally. Israel rejected this interpretation and instead offered direct talks with the Lebanese government aimed at disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-shows-strain-ahead-talks-with-oil-flows-squeezed-2026-04-10/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/vance-warns-iran-not-play-us-he-leaves-talks-2026-04-10/
On 10 April, Reuters reported that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed military capabilities and ship logistics in the Strait of Hormuz with US President Donald Trump a day earlier. During his visit to the Gulf, Starmer said that the UK is "pulling together a coalition of countries" while also examining the military capabilities and the logistics of vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that he also discussed a practical plan for navigation through the strait. The conversation took place amid reports that the US was withdrawing some of its troops from Europe. A senior White House official told Reuters that, so far, only discussions about troop removal have taken place, and the Pentagon has not been given any direction by the White House. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, in an interview with CNN on Wednesday, had said that President Trump is frustrated with the alliance and wants concrete commitments to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Commenting on these reports, Prime Minister Starmer said that NATO is a defensive alliance which was in the interests of both the US and Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uks-starmer-says-he-discussed-military-options-strait-hormuz-with-us-president-2026-04-10/
Trump announces a two-week ceasefire; US to “suspend bombing and attack of Iran”
Preetha R
On 08 April, the BBC reported that Iran and the United States agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire that would allow shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This followed over a month of coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran and came hours after President Trump warned that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran did not reopen the Strait.
First, both sides claimed success, but core disagreements remain unresolved. Second, for the US and Iran. Washington framed the ceasefire as a “total and complete victory,” while Tehran stated the US suffered a “historic and crushing defeat.” Despite these claims, Iran retains its enriched uranium stockpile and missile capabilities. Reports from Reuters highlight the clerical leadership withstanding the war with “no sign of domestic opposition.” It also notes Tehran's recently proven ability to cut off Gulf energy supplies, despite the massive US military presence built across the region over decades. Third, for Israel. Although Israel supports the ceasefire, the agreement represents a setback to its repeated objective of bringing about Iran's fall. As opposition politician Yair Lapid noted: “The nuclear programme was not destroyed. The ballistic threat remains. The regime is still intact and is even emerging from this war stronger.”
Pakistan has proposed talks in Islamabad on 10 April for a conclusive settlement. Iran's president confirmed it would attend, while the US has yet to confirm. Both sides maintain competing demands; Washington has presented its demands in a 15-point plan, while Iran has responded with a 10-point plan of its own. As per US and Israeli officials, the Trump administration assured Israel that it would insist on previous conditions, including the removal of Iran’s nuclear material, halt enrichment and the elimination of ballistic missiles.
Iran’s Ten-point proposal to the US: President Trump describes the plan as “workable”
Brighty Ann Sarah
On 08 April, Iran presented a 10-point proposal entailing the terms of a ceasefire to the US. President Trump has described it as a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” and a “significant step,” but “not good enough.” The proposal was presented by Pakistan, as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on social media that the US, Iran and all their allies have agreed to a ceasefire “everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.”
The Hindu reported that Iran’s 10-point proposal demands the acceptance of Tehran's right to nuclear enrichment, the removal of primary and secondary sanctions, and Washington’s reparations for the damages caused by the war. Tehran has also urged the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Further, it calls for the establishment of a secure transit framework in the Strait of Hormuz that ensures Iranian dominance under mutually agreed terms and controlled passage through the Strait, coordinated by Iran’s armed forces. They also call for the withdrawal of US military forces from the Middle East and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran also demanded the termination of all UN Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, and the adoption of a binding UN Security Council resolution to formalise any agreement.
Earlier, on 24 March, the US had offered a 15-point proposal, which Iran had rebuked as “extremely excessive, unusual and illogical.” Washington’s demands included the decommissioning of Tehran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and demanded that Iran withdraw its support for proxy armed groups in the region, reported the Wall Street Journal. In turn, the US offered to lift the sanctions on Iran and revoke the “snapback” mechanism that automatically reimposes international sanctions in the event of Iranian non-compliance with nuclear commitments. Washington also offered assistance for the development of Iran’s civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant, Israel's Channel 12 reported.
UNSC: Bahrain-led resolution on Iran fails; Russia and China veto it, citing bias and risk of escalation
Lekshmi MK
What was the resolution all about?
On 07 April, Bahrain introduced a draft resolution at the United Nations Security Council to address escalating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war. The resolution called for coordinated international efforts to secure maritime navigation, including the protection and, if necessary, the escorting of commercial vessels through the critical waterway. It aimed to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global energy supplies and reduce risks to commercial shipping in one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints. The draft received 11 votes in favour, but was vetoed by Russia and China, while Brazil and Mozambique abstained.
Russia and China opposed the resolution, arguing that it unfairly singled out Iran and could legitimise US-led military actions in the region. Emphasising diplomacy, they maintained that the crisis should be resolved through dialogue rather than security-driven interventions. As one diplomat noted, the draft risked “escalating tensions instead of de-escalating them.” Meanwhile, Brazil and Mozambique abstained, citing concerns over the resolution’s lack of balance and the possibility of further escalation. Supporters of the resolution, including Western and allied countries, pointed to rising threats to global energy security and stressed the urgency of ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments.
The failure to adopt the resolution highlights deep divisions within the Security Council, particularly between Western powers and the Russia-China bloc. It underscores the difficulty of achieving consensus during major geopolitical crises and reflects the limitations of multilateral institutions in managing conflicts involving competing global interests. At the same time, it reinforces the continued importance of diplomatic engagement, even as strategic rivalries constrain collective action.
On 08 March, Reuters reported that Oil prices fell sharply below USD 100 per barrel. This is after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows. As a result, Brent and WTI crude fell by 16-18 per cent, as the market expected that the resumption of disrupted oil flows would immediately address supply concerns. Prices had surged ahead of and during the conflict on supply fears but have since fallen as the ceasefire signals a resumption of flows.
On 08 April, Iran signalled a shift in its maritime control approach. It proposed that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency. This would apply to oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz during a ceasefire period. The proposal comes amid ongoing tensions in the region. The Strait of Hormuz is a key global shipping route. A significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes through it. Any change in how transit is managed in this region has direct implications for international energy markets and supply chains. The proposal outlines a structured approach to regulating maritime access, where payment becomes a prerequisite for passage. It also introduces cryptocurrency as the designated mode of transaction, differing from conventional payment systems used in international shipping. This may require shipping companies to adapt their financial processes and ensure alignment with applicable regulatory frameworks.
Implementing such a system would require coordination among multiple actors, including shipping operators, insurers, and regulatory authorities. It may also affect how transit permissions are granted and monitored during the ceasefire period. The development is linked to broader regional security conditions. The Strait of Hormuz has been a focal point of tensions in recent years. Past incidents have included disruptions to shipping and heightened military activity in surrounding waters. The proposal indicates a potential change in how access to the Strait may be structured during a ceasefire. It also introduces new operational considerations for shipping companies navigating the route.
On 08 April, Reuters reported that President Trump welcomed NATO chief Mark Rutte to the White House to address strained relations between Washington and its European allies amid the ongoing Iran war. President Trump criticised some NATO members for providing “insufficient support” during the conflict and labelled the alliance a “paper tiger.” Due to the limited involvement of NATO members in US-led operations, Trump emphasized the need for stronger contributions toward regional security and urged that allies “must step up in ways that reflect our shared commitments.” European diplomats suggest that countries appear unlikely to join mine-clearing or other missions in the Strait of Hormuz while the conflict continues. Ongoing disagreements over Iran, Ukraine, and defence spending are straining NATO’s unity, with some officials warning it could reach a “dangerous point” for the alliance. Rutte is expected to emphasise NATO’s defensive role and the importance of transatlantic cooperation during the talks. He is also likely to highlight European efforts to increase military spending and safeguard energy and maritime trade amid ongoing disruptions from the conflict. The meeting is expected to ease tensions between the alliances and reinforce transatlantic cooperation.
On 08 April, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, responding to a question about Beijing's involvement in the war, stated that China plays a constructive role and strives to promote peace and end war. Additionally, she stated that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi held 26 phone conversations with the foreign ministers of relevant countries. Apart from that, in the UNSC resolution that called for coordinated international efforts to secure maritime navigation, including the protection and, if necessary, escort of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, China vetoed it, citing biased measures.
US-Iran: “A whole civilization will die tonight,” warns Trump
On April 7, 2026, in Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged Iran to make a deal by Tuesday, warning of severe consequences if an agreement is not reached to end the conflict. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” adding that although he does not want such an outcome, it “probably will” happen if no deal is achieved. He further described the situation as one of the most important moments in the world's long and complex history, emphasising the urgency and gravity of the decision. The statement highlights increasing pressure on Iran to respond within the given timeframe, with attention focused on whether an agreement will be reached or the situation will escalate further.
On 7 April, Reuters reported that Iran showed no sign of accepting Donald Trump's ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz by the end of Tuesday. This was right after Trump stated that “a whole civilisation will die tonight" unless Iran ended the blockade of Gulf oil. According to Iranian media, throughout the day, railway and road bridges, an airport, and a petrochemical plant were targeted in Iran. Explosions were reported on Kharg Island, home to Iran's oil export terminal, which Trump has openly mused about destroying or seizing. Power was knocked out in parts of Karaj, just west of Tehran, by a strike on transmission lines and a substation. As a response, Iran declared that it would no longer hold back from hitting the infrastructure of US allies in the Gulf, whose desert cities would be uninhabitable without power or water. It claimed to have carried out fresh strikes on a ship in the Gulf and Saudi industrial facilities linked to US firms.
On 07 April, Reuters reported that the US struck additional military targets on Iran's Kharg Island. A US official said on Tuesday that the attack occurred in the early morning hours and did not hit Iranian oil infrastructure. He added that some of the strikes hit targets that had already been hit. US Vice President JD Vance commented on this and said that the US strikes on Kharg Island don't represent a shift in American strategy. He added the US will not strike energy infrastructure "until the Iranians either make a proposal that we can get behind or don't make a proposal."
On 07 April, Al Jazeera reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan to the US as well as Israel, but the proposal has been rejected by US President Donald Trump. While he called it a “significant step” in the ongoing negotiations, Trump said it was not “good enough.” This development follows the attack on the top university in Tehran as well as a major petrochemical plant. Direct talks between the two countries' diplomats continue to be avoided. It was only in late March that Trump claimed conversations between US envoys and an Iranian official, though Iran refused the claim. The proposal primarily secured safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and a lifting of trade sanctions, but talks failed to secure the planned 45-day ceasefire.
On 07 April, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that they had succeeded in attacking the Jubail petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia, often considered to be central to the downstream energy sector of the nation. Several billion-dollar investments and ventures are said to centre around complex issues as well. Saudi Aramco and SABIC are among the major companies involved alongside Western initiatives, too. Iranian authorities claimed that this was a response to the “aggression against [the] Asaluyeh petrochemical plants” located in Iran. Video footage has confirmed flames and smoke emerging from the region that was reportedly attacked by “suicide drones.” Meanwhile, the Saudi defence ministry claimed that, though seven missiles were intercepted, debris landed near the energy sites.
Trump threatens “Hell”; Iran rejects the ceasefire proposal
On 06 April, Reuters reported Trump threatening to unleash “hell” on Tehran if it does not agree to a deal by Tuesday, insisting that Iran allow traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. According to BBC, quoting Iran’s state media, Tehran has rejected the ceasefire plans. The proposal, reportedly brokered through Pakistan, calls for an immediate ceasefire followed by talks on a broader settlement within 15–20 days. Iran has rejected reopening the Strait as part of a temporary truce and said it would not negotiate under pressure or deadlines. Meanwhile, fighting has continued across the region. Israel has intensified strikes, with Defence Minister Israel Katz warning of further action against Iran’s infrastructure and leadership. Iran reported attacks on key petrochemical sites, including the South Pars complex, where a fire was later brought under control without casualties.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-vows-hell-iran-if-strait-stays-shut-says-deal-is-possible-2026-04-06/
On 06 April, Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, stated that Israel struck a petrochemical facility in Iran and the IDF will continue to attack Iran's infrastructure with all force. He said, "Now the two facilities, which together are responsible for about 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports, have been taken out of service and are not functioning," and "This is a severe economic blow worth tens of billions of dollars to the Iranian regime. The petrochemical industry is a major engine in financing the activities of the Revolutionary Guards and in building Iran's military power." This action comes after US President Trump's comment on social media that says, "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!", indicating further attacks on Iran's infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt
On 06 April, Reuters reported that China's President Xi Jinping has called for accelerating the planning and construction of a new energy system to bolster China's energy security. This announcement comes weeks into the ongoing US-Iran war, which has triggered global energy shocks. Without directly referring to the US-Iran war, he said that the Party Central Committee gained a "profound grasp of global energy development trends" and that it had also "made major decisions by advancing the new energy security strategy in depth." Multiple analysts have stated that China is better positioned to absorb higher oil prices, given that coal forms the backbone of its energy mix. President Xi referred to China's coal-fired power as "the foundation of our energy system." Despite acknowledging China's widespread use of coal, he added that China must remain committed to clean and low-carbon development. He further said, "The path we took in being the first ?to develop wind and solar power has now proven to be forward-looking."
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinas-xi-urges-faster-development-new-energy-system-middle-east-war-continues-2026-04-06/
Iran shoots down two US warplanes, including a US F-15 fighter jet; Both countries search for the pilot; 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them, says President Trump
On 04 April, Iran's IRNA news agency claimed that its top joint military commander shot down two US warplanes. Iran's spokesperson stated that they have employed a domestically produced air defence system and Iran will achieve full control of the skies as new such systems will roll out one after another. Additionally, the officials are carrying out an intensified search to capture the US pilot alive in return for promised rewards. US media reported that one of the pilots on board was rescued. US President Trump, reiterating his March 27 deadline, says, "Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!"
Iran drone strike on Israel-linked ship in Hormuz Strait
On 04 April, Reuters reported that Iran on Saturday said it had struck an Israel-linked vessel in the Strait of Hormuz using a drone, according to state media reports citing the commander of the Revolutionary Guards navy. The attack reportedly set the ship ablaze, raising fresh concerns over maritime security in one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints. There was no immediate response from Israel. The incident comes amid heightened regional tensions following recent military exchanges, fuelling fears of further escalation that could disrupt global energy supplies and international shipping routes passing through the strategically vital waterway.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-hit-israel-linked-vessel-hormuz-strait-2026-04-04/
On 04 April, Reuters reported that Iraq closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran after airstrikes on the Iranian side killed an Iraqi citizen. The strike hit a passenger reception area, severely wounding five Iraqis. This has led to the closure of a vital supply artery. Traders and border officials stated that the crossing is one of the main routes for importing vegetables and other food supplies from Iran to Iraq. Iraq’s border authorities said they had been notified by Iranian officials that truck and passenger movement would be restored in the coming hours once work on the transit and passport systems is completed. A few hours after the strike, Iraqi border authorities also briefly halted movement at the Safwan crossing with Kuwait after reporting explosions on the Kuwaiti side.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-closes-shalamcheh-crossing-with-iran-after-airstrikes-kill-iraqi-2026-04-04/
On 04 April, Reuters reported that Donald Trump is considering a broader cabinet shake-up following the recent removals of Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem. The move comes as a five-week war with Iran fuels rising gas prices, sinking approval ratings, and growing concern among Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump's director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are also at risk of being removed from office. In recent months, Trump had expressed displeasure with Gabbard while Lutnick has faced scrutiny for his relationship with late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-weighs-broader-cabinet-shake-up-iran-war-pressure-grows-2026-04-04/
On 04 April, the Dawn reported that a Pakistan-led initiative to facilitate talks between the United States and Iran has been delayed due to Tehran’s lack of formal response. Despite ongoing back-channel exchanges and some progress in relaying messages, Iran has not indicated readiness to engage in dialogue, slowing diplomatic momentum. Pakistan, supported by China, continues efforts to persuade Iran, maintaining contact with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The initiative, led by Asim Munir, also seeks support from Gulf countries, Türkiye and Beijing. A framework for talks has been discussed, with Islamabad considered as a potential venue, though opposition from some Arab states remains a key challenge to de-escalation efforts.
("‘Silence’ stonewalls Pakistan-led US-Iran talks initiative," Dawn, 04 April 2026. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dawn.com/news/amp/1988294)
The US-Iran War, Week Five
Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trump’s Renewed Threats
US-Israeli offensive
Between 27 March and 3 April, the US and Israeli attacks continued on Iran. On 27 March, in a precise overnight strike, the IDF eliminated Alireza Tangsiri, Commander of the IRGC Navy. On 28 March, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that strikes had successfully destroyed 70 per cent of Iran’s steel production capacity, aimed at crippling Iran’s long-term ability to manufacture replacement missiles and drones. On 2 April, U.S. forces struck Bridge 1B, a vital artery connecting Tehran to Karaj. On 3 April, the US and Israel intensified attacks on Iran, hitting a century-old medical research centre in Tehran, steel plants, and a bridge near the capital, sparking criticism over their targeting of what Iran and many analysts insist are civilian infrastructure.
Between 27 March and 3 April, Iran continued to target sites in Israel and infrastructure in the Gulf countries. On 28 March, the Iran-aligned Houthis of Yemen officially entered the war, launching ballistic missile attacks, targeting “sensitive Israeli military sites” in southern Israel. They have also said that “they will continue these attacks until new alliances join Washington and Israel against Iran and its ?allies, or if the Red Sea is used for 'hostile operations’ against Iran.” On 29 March, Iran formalized its policy of allowing “non-hostile” tankers (primarily bound for China and India) to transit the Strait of Hormuz, provided they pay a transit fee in Chinese Yuan to bypass the dollar system. On 2 April, Iran published a “target list” of major bridges in Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE, and Bahrain. On 3 April, Iran's military claimed to have downed two U.S. jets in the Gulf: an F-15 in the southwest and an A-10 “Warthog” over the Persian Gulf. US officials have confirmed that one crew member was rescued.
On 30 March, over 30 countries, including the UK, France, Japan, and Canada, signed a joint statement condemning the closure of the Strait and authorizing preparatory planning for “all defensive means” to reopen the waterway. On 3 April, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted leaders and representatives from 40 countries to explore the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
On 1 April, US President Donald Trump delivered a speech from the White House wherein he labelled Iran as the “world’s number one state sponsor of terror,” a threat to the US and the world, claimed to have won the war with Iran, and claimed that the war would wrap up soon. He said: “We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders.” He also said: “We are gonna finish the job. We are getting very close.” On the negotiations, he warned Iran: “If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously.”
First, the continuing attacks. Despite announcements of backchannel negotiations by the US, the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have continued. Earlier, Trump had announced a ten-day pause. On the other hand, Tehran has denied any direct talks with the US and continued to target Israel, infrastructure in the Gulf countries, and a selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The reluctance of the Gulf countries, which have borne the brunt of Tehran’s attacks, to retaliate has also likely bolstered Tehran’s continued attacks.
The war seems to have transformed from a precise decapitation campaign to a war of attrition, driven largely by Tehran’s defiance and the US’s inability to achieve its stated war objectives, even though President Trump has constantly claimed otherwise.
UN Security Council to vote on Bahrain's resolution
On 02 April, Reuters reported that the UN Security Council will vote on a Bahrain-sponsored resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. However, China has said that it opposes authorizing any use of force. Diplomats told Reuters that the meeting and the vote are scheduled to be held on Saturday morning. The draft resolution finalized by Bahrain, the current chair of the UN Security Council, would "authorize all defensive means necessary" to protect shipping. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani said that Bahrain was looking for a unified position from the council. He added that Iran's unlawful actions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten global interests and require a decisive response.
China's envoy to the UN, Fu Cong, opposed authorizing the use of force in his remarks to the council on Thursday. He said that if the Security Council legitimises the use of force, it would escalate the conflict and lead to serious consequences. On 02 April, in a meeting with 40 other countries, Britain expressed support for Bahrain's resolution. The secretary-general of the Arab League also stated that the 22-member League backed Bahrain. In order to be adopted, Bahrain's resolution requires nine votes in the Security Council, with no vetoes from the five permanent members.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/bahrain-hopes-vote-revised-hormuz-resolution-friday-2026-04-02/
Trump threatens to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure as Hormuz crisis persists
On 03 April, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with attacks on civilian infrastructure following a US strike on a major bridge. On 2 April, President Trump posted footage on Truth Social showing damage to the newly constructed B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj after US strikes. The bridge was set to open to traffic this year. In a subsequent post praising the US military, he wrote "Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants." President Trump also threatened the Iranian leadership regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He said that Iran "knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!" He made these comments after US oil prices rose by eleven per cent on Thursday. The UK also chaired a meeting on the reopening of Hormuz without producing an agreement.
Iran's Foreign Minister responded to Trump's threats by stating that the US cannot force Iran to surrender by striking civilian infrastructure and unfinished bridges. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also responded by threatening to attack all US and Israeli assets in the region, especially fuel, energy and economic centres. Iran also claimed to have downed an F-35, on which the US didn't comment. Another Iranian attack hit a major desalination and power plant in Kuwait.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-vows-target-more-iranian-infrastructure-nations-seek-open-hormuz-2026-04-03/
The US has all the cards, Iran has none: President Trump
On 02 April, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump stated in a televised speech on Wednesday night that the US military had nearly accomplished its goals in Iran, but offered no clear timeline for ending the monthlong war and vowed to bomb the country back into the "Stone Ages." Trump further claimed that they have destroyed Iran's navy and air force, and crippled its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. In his address from the White House, he stated, “We have all the cards. They have none.” He spoke about other unresolved issues, including the status of Iran's enriched uranium and access through the Strait of Hormuz. He further stated that once the war ended, the strait would “naturally’ open. As the war approaches its fifth week, he declined to lay down any concrete plans of ending the war apart from claiming that the US would finish the job “very fast”.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tell-wary-public-that-iran-war-goals-have-been-accomplished-prime-time-2026-04-01/
On 02 April, Reuters reported that the UK will host talks on Thursday to form a coalition of nations to explore options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The virtual meeting will be chaired by the UK's Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, and will be attended by 35 countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and the UAE. The US will not attend the meeting. This meeting follows US President Donald Trump's address to the nation, in which he said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was the responsibility of the nations that rely on it most. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday that the meeting would assess viable diplomatic and political measures to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire is reached. Officials said the talks on Thursday would be the first formal meeting of the group, followed by more detailed discussions involving military planners. One official said that any plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would focus on ensuring the waterway is mine-free and that tankers are protected. Mr Starmer added that reopening the strait would require "a united front of military strength and diplomatic activity" while working with the shipping industry.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-host-talks-with-35-countries-reopening-strait-hormuz-2026-04-02/
On 02 April, Reuters reported on French President Emmanuel Macron dismissing calls for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling such an approach “unrealistic” amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. His remarks come after President Trump urged allies to take stronger action to restore access to the crucial waterway. Speaking during a visit to South Korea, Macron warned that any military attempt to secure the route would be prolonged and dangerous, exposing vessels to threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and ballistic missiles. Instead, he emphasised that reopening the passage must come through diplomatic engagement with Tehran. Macron added that France and its European partners are working to build a post-conflict coalition to ensure safe navigation, underscoring a preference for negotiation over escalation in safeguarding global energy flows.
https://www.reuters.com/world/macron-says-it-is-unrealistic-open-hormuz-strait-by-force-2026-04-02/
01 APRIL 2026: DAY 33
Trump threatens NATO exit, claims Iran seeking ceasefire
On 01 April, the CNN World reported that US President Donald Trump has escalated tensions with NATO, signalling a possible US withdrawal from the alliance amid deep divisions over the ongoing Iran war. Ahead of a televised address, President Trump claimed that Iran’s president has sought a ceasefire, though the assertion remains unverified and disputed by Tehran. In an interview with the Telegraph, President Trump labelled NATO a “paper tiger,” accusing member states of failing to support US military operations. His criticism has intensified over the weeks, particularly targeting allies for refusing to assist in reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump has repeatedly questioned NATO’s relevance, even suggesting the US “never needed” the alliance. The rift stems largely from the February 28 strikes on Iran, which allies say they were not consulted on. European resistance has since hardened, with several nations distancing themselves from the conflict. Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg had earlier warned of President Trump’s intent to rethink US commitments, while current Chief Mark Rutte now faces the challenge of holding the alliance together. As tensions grow, European countries are expected to boost their own defence capabilities, but the potential exit of the US threatens to fundamentally reshape NATO’s future.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/01/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-oil
Iran attacks Kuwait and Qatar
On 01 April, Reuters reported that an oil tanker leased to state-owned Qatar Energy was hit by an Iranian cruise missile on Wednesday in Qatari waters, the defence ministry said. A total of three missiles were launched on Qatar, out of which two were intercepted, while one hit the Aqua one fuel oil tanker, but caused no casualties. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and QatarEnergy said that the vessel, located thirty-one kilometres north of Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial hub, which is the site of the world's largest gas plant, sustained damage above the waterline, but no environmental impact was reported. Reuters also reported that an Iranian drone attack struck fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport on Wednesday, sparking a massive fire but causing no casualties, as confirmed by Kuwait's state news agency KUNA. According to the civil aviation authorities, the attack has caused major damage to the Kuwait Aviation Fuelling Company.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/tanker-hit-by-two-projectiles-off-qatar-one-unexploded-ukmto-says-2026-04-01/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kuwait-says-iran-drone-attack-sets-airport-fuel-tanks-ablaze-no-casualties-2026-04-01/
Bulgaria: Iran warns Bulgaria over the use of airports by US military aircraft
On 01 April, Reuters reported that Iran has warned Bulgaria not to let the US use its airports for planes taking part in military operations against Iran. On Wednesday, Stanislav Balabanov, a deputy in Bulgaria's "There is such People" party, presented a note from Iran dated 18 March. In the note, Tehran had protested against US military refuelling aircraft being parked at Sofia's Vasil Levski Airport. The note stated that Iran has the right to take all necessary actions to protect its national interests, security, and sovereignty in accordance with international law. Bulgarian Deputy Foreign Minister Marin Raikov confirmed this note in a statement to reporters, adding that Bulgaria is not at war. He said that Bulgaria isn't hosting any combat aircraft for military operations and that Sofia maintains diplomatic relations with Tehran. He added that the US military planes that landed at Sofia Vasil Levski Airport were part of a NATO deployment. He mentioned that the Bulgarian parliament has not authorised any military actions in the Middle East.
https://www.reuters.com/world/iranian-authorities-warned-bulgaria-not-let-us-use-airports-2026-04-01/
UK pivots toward EU amid Iran war fallout
On 01 April, Reuters reported that Prime Minister Keir Starmer signalled a strategic shift toward closer ties with the European Union, citing global instability triggered by the Iran war and growing tensions with Donald Trump. Speaking in London, Starmer said Britain’s long-term national interest now lies in strengthening economic and defence cooperation with Europe. The move comes as relations with Washington deteriorate, with Trump repeatedly criticising Starmer for refusing to join the US-led war on Iran and issuing latest warnings of quitting NATO. However, he reaffirmed that the UK would not be pressured into direct involvement, though it has allowed limited defensive operations. Highlighting a broader policy shift, Starmer said an upcoming UK-EU summit would focus on rebuilding ties post-Brexit, while ruling out rejoining the single market or customs union. He also announced that Britain would host talks with international partners to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route disrupted by the conflict. With over 30 countries expected to participate, the UK is positioning itself as a key diplomatic and security coordinator. This marks a notable tilt back toward Europe in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-requires-closer-eu-partnerships-due-volatile-world-starmer-says-2026-04-01/
Pakistan and China propose a five-part peace plan for the Middle East
On 1 April, The Guardian reported that Pakistan and China have released a joint five-part proposal for peace in the Middle East. In the past few weeks, Pakistan has emerged as a crucial proponent of a ceasefire and has recommended Islamabad as the centre for peace talks. Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, flew to Beijing on Tuesday for a one-day meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, to negotiate an end to the war. According to a statement from China’s foreign ministry, the trip was intended to strengthen cooperation between China and Pakistan on the ongoing conflict in Iran and to make new efforts to advocate for peace. While Beijing condemned the initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran, it has maintained distance from the ongoing war, while negotiating with Tehran for the safe passage of its own oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. However, in a statement after Tuesday’s meeting, Pakistan and China have jointly called for an immediate ceasefire. They have demanded the safety of waterways, including the blockaded strait, and have also launched a five-part peace initiative.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/31/pakistan-china-propose-five-part-peace-plan-middle-east
31 MARCH 2026: DAY 32
Trump urges the UK and allies to secure their own oil supplies from the Strait of Hormuz
On 31 March, the US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that countries such as the United Kingdom should show some courage, head to the Strait of Hormuz, and secure oil for themselves. He emphasised that nations can no longer rely on the United States for protection. This remark comes amid a backdrop of several US allies scaling back or refusing to participate in the US–Iran war. In the same post, Trump also reiterated his claim that Iran had been largely “decimated” and that the most difficult phase of the war was over.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c8jke9v9xv9t
On 31 March, President Trump shared a video showing a massive explosion in Isfahan. The footage captured multiple blasts, followed by intense fires that lit up the night sky. While Trump provided no context, media reports suggest the video may be linked to joint US-Israeli strikes on a key ammunition depot in the city. However, the authenticity of the clip could not be independently verified. Citing a US official, The Wall Street Journal reported that the strike involved 2,000-pound (approximately 900-kg) bunker-buster bombs, targeting fortified underground facilities. The attack reportedly triggered secondary explosions, producing large fireballs and shockwaves.
The incident has heightened fears of further escalation as the conflict enters its second month, even as countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey continue diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/explosions-in-isfahan-trigger-iran-missile-response-strikes-hit-israel-amid-rising-tensions/videoshow/129919925.cms
On 31 March, US gas prices hit USD 4.02 per gallon, crossing the USD 4 mark for the first time since 2022. Over the month of March, gas prices in the US have risen by USD 1 per gallon. The price of diesel has also increased by USD 1.70 since the conflict in the Middle East began, with the average now being USD 5.45 per gallon. During March, US crude oil prices have increased by more than 50 per cent, crossing the USD 100 per barrel mark for the first time since July 2022.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/31/business/us-gas-prices-usd4-intl
On 30 March, Pakistan signalled its willingness to host direct talks between the United States and Iran as part of a broader regional effort to de-escalate the ongoing US-Iran War. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated that Pakistan would be “honoured to facilitate meaningful talks” for a lasting settlement, emphasising diplomacy as the only viable path to peace. He held discussions with counterparts from Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, focusing on regional stability and secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated support for collective efforts to end hostilities. Meanwhile, Dar’s visit to China aims to shape a framework for potential US-Iran talks, with Beijing backing Pakistan’s mediation role. The European Union has also supported dialogue, though Iran remains cautious, stressing the need for realistic and fair negotiations.
On 31 March, Italy refused to give permission for US military aircraft to land at the Sigonella airbase in Sicily last week. According to Corriere della Sera, an Italian daily, "some US bombers" were supposed to land in Sicily before going to the Middle East. The report said the aircraft were denied permission because Washington had neither sought Rome's clearance nor consulted Italy’s military leadership. As per the treaties signed between Italy and the US, Washington is required to obtain prior clearance before using any Italian military installation.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/
Trump says the US is in talks with the ‘New’ Iranian regime
On 30 March, the BBC reported that US President Trump had engaged in “serious discussions”. President Trump described this as a new and “more reasonable” regime in Iran, raising hopes of ending ongoing US military operations. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that “great progress” has been made in the talks, but warned that if a deal is not reached soon, the US could take strong military action. He said key Iranian infrastructure, including power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, could be targeted.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c8jke9v9xv9t
On 30 March, Reuters reported that Iran described the US peace proposals as "unrealistic, illogical and excessive." Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran had received messages from intermediaries which indicated that Washington was willing to negotiate. This announcement came after a meeting of the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Islamabad to discuss mediation of the conflict. However, Mr. Baghaei criticised the US proposals in a press conference on Monday. He said Iran's position is clear and "We are under military aggression. Therefore, all our efforts and strength are focused on defending ourselves." A Pakistani official also told Reuters that it is unlikely that any direct US-Iran talks will be held this week.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-calls-irans-current-leaders-very-reasonable-pakistan-prepares-host-talks-2026-03-30/
On 30 March, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had attacked a power and water desalination plant in Kuwait. It resulted in the death of one Indian worker and damaged a building at the site, which was confirmed by the Kuwaiti Ministry of Electricity. However, Iran’s military operational command Khatam al-Anbiya made a contradictory statement, claiming that the attack was carried out by Israel. Al Jazeera’s Malik Traina confirmed that on 29 March, 14 missiles and 12 drones were detected in Kuwaiti airspace, and several of those drones were targeting a military camp, where 10 servicemen were injured. Qatar has condemned the attack and has affirmed full solidarity with Kuwait. While Reuters reported that Israel's Fire and Rescue Service has confirmed that an industrial building and a fuel tanker at Israel's Oil Refineries, in the northern city of Haifa was hit by debris from an intercepted missile. It is still unclear whether the missile was fired by the state of Iran or by the Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, who were both firing at the same time.
https://www.reuters.com/world/
27 MARCH 2026: DAY 28
Only one-third of Iran's missiles have been destroyed, says Reuters
On 27 March, Reuters reported that the US can confirm with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's missile arsenal. The status of another third is unconfirmed, but US strikes most likely damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in Tehran's underground network of tunnels and bunkers. This assessment contrasts with the claims made by US President Donald Trump. He had commented on Iran's remaining arsenal, saying that Tehran "had very few rockets left." He had also acknowledged the threat posed by Iran's remaining missiles and drones to any US operations in the Strait of Hormuz. In a televised cabinet meeting, Trump said that even ninety-nine per cent destruction of Iran's missiles is unacceptable because the remaining one per cent could destroy billion-dollar ships.
On 27 March, Reuters reported that President Trump had extended his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days to 6 April, pausing threats to destroy its energy plants. This move comes after Tehran rejected a 15-point US proposal including nuclear dismantlement and missile curbs. Meanwhile, Iran has barred shipping from US-Israel allies via the IRGC, urging evacuations near US bases, and vowed Gulf energy strikes if attacked. This follows the news regarding the consummation of indirect talks via Pakistan, which is said to be in the process of preparation.
On 27 March, Reuters reported that the US has deployed uncrewed drone speedboats as part of its operations against Iran. It also confirms the usage of such vessels in an active conflict. The Pentagon stated that unmanned surface vessels are being used for maritime patrols under Operation Epic Fury to strengthen surveillance in the Middle East. According to Central Command spokesperson Tim Hawkins, the Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft (GARC) vessels have logged over 450 patrol hours and covered more than 2,200 nautical miles. The deployment reportedly reflects the growing use of sea drones in modern warfare, particularly after Ukraine used similar systems against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Iran has also reportedly used sea drones to attack oil tankers in the Gulf in recent weeks. Although the US has not confirmed offensive use, officials state that unmanned systems help improve maritime monitoring and reduce the need for manned naval operations despite earlier technical problems.
On 27 March, Reuters reported that President Trump is weighing a ground operation to seize Kharg Island. The Island is a strategic location that controls about 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and lies near the Strait of Hormuz. While analysts state that US forces could seize the island quickly, occupation risks include drone, missile, and mine attacks, prolonging the conflict. They also warn against Iran’s potential retaliation by targeting shipping, escalating instability, and disrupting global energy supplies. Furthermore, Former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel said holding the island would require significant logistical support, increasing troop vulnerability.
On 27 March, Reuters reported that the war between Israel and Hezbollah had fuelled political and economic strains due to the displacement of Shi'ite Muslims. The enmity further deepens between the Iran-backed group and its opponents in Lebanon. The administration led by PM Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun has banned Hezbollah's military wing, calling for talks with Israel, and demanded Iran's ambassador leave. At the same time, Israel has threatened Gaza-like destruction in Lebanon. Since 02 March, more than one thousand people have been killed in Lebanon, and one-fifth of the total population has been displaced. The Israeli military has ordered the Shi’ite Muslims to evacuate the southern regions, forcing them to find shelter in other parts of the country. Many have found shelter in hotels and vocational colleges.
The US and Iran: Trump warns Iran to "Get Serious" as Tehran reviews US peace proposal
On 26 March, Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump issued a blunt warning to Iran, demanding it take peace negotiations seriously or face irreversible consequences. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed Iran had been "militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback" and was "begging" for a deal. Dismissing Iranian negotiators as "very different and strange," he warned: "They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK." Iran, meanwhile, confirmed it is reviewing a US proposal to end the nearly four-week-old conflict. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi acknowledged that messages are being exchanged through friendly nations, but stopped short of calling it a negotiation. "We have no intention of negotiating," Araqchi stated, though his acknowledgement of the review process hints at a guarded willingness to engage if Iranian demands are met. Indirect talks are currently being relayed through Pakistan, with Turkey and Egypt also supporting mediation efforts. The US proposal reportedly demands Iran dismantle its nuclear programme, curb its missile capabilities, and effectively cede control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's counter-demands are equally steep security guarantees against future military action, war compensation, formal control of the Strait, and inclusion of Lebanon in any ceasefire deal.
On 26 March, the BBC reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guards naval commander Alireza Tangsiri "yet another example of cooperation" between Israel and the United States. In a video message in Hebrew, Netanyahu said Israel continues to "forcefully strike" targets across Iran, signalling no let-up in military operations. Netanyahu echoed Defence Minister Israel Katz in highlighting Tangsiri's role in Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. "This man had a great deal of blood on his hands," Netanyahu said, framing the strike as a shared achievement toward what he described as the "common goal of achieving the objectives of the war."
On 26 March, Reuters reported that Israel has stated it will seize a chunk of southern Lebanon to create a buffer zone against Hezbollah. On 4 March, Israel had ordered Lebanese civilians to leave the area south of the Litani River, two days after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, joining the US-Israeli war on Iran. This river runs east from the Mediterranean Sea and lies 19 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border. Eight percent of Lebanese territory lies south of the Litani. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) has set up new fortifications and destroyed villages south of the river. Israel considers southern Lebanon to be a stronghold for Iran-backed Hezbollah.
On 26 March, Reuters reported that Israel removed Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf from its hit list after Pakistan requested the United States to press Israel not to eliminate them. A Pakistani source told Reuters that "We told the U.S. if they are also eliminated then there is no one else to talk to, hence the U.S. asked the Israelis to back off." The Wall Street Journal first reported that two senior Iranian officials had been temporarily removed from Israel's hit list in order to negotiate a peace deal. However, that report made no mention of Pakistan in it. Pakistan's Military and Foreign office did not respond to any requests for comments. Furthermore, Israel's military and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office also did not respond.
On 24 March, Reuters reported that Iran launched successive waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Missiles struck Tel Aviv, tearing through a multi-storey apartment building while air raid sirens blared across the city. Rescue teams scrambled to search for civilians trapped in the rubble. Despite Trump's diplomatic overtures, including a five-day pause on threatened strikes against Iran's power plants, Tehran showed no signs of standing down. Iran's foreign ministry made only a vague reference to "initiatives to reduce tensions," stopping well short of acknowledging any direct engagement with Washington. Earlier, on Monday, the US President Trump claimed "very good and productive" talks were underway to halt the escalating conflict. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, swiftly dismissed those claims as "fake news," strictly denying any negotiations had taken place.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-sends-waves-missiles-into-israel-dismisses-trumps-talk-negotiations-fake-2026-03-24/
Oil prices surge again, after Iran denies talks with the US
On 24 March, Oil prices rose after Iran denied that it had held negotiations with the US to end the war. On Monday, US President Trump stated that the US had held talks with Iran, which produced "major points of agreement." Following this announcement, crude oil prices had dropped by 10 per cent. However, on Tuesday, Iran denied that it had held talks with the US. Following that, Brent futures rose 1.8 per cent to USD 101.77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 2.5 per cent, to USD 90.34. Macquarie Group, a major global financial services firm based in Australia, said Brent could reach USD 150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut until the end of April.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-markets-assess-supply-risks-after-iran-denies-us-talks-2026-03-24/
Lebanon: Israel will occupy up to the Litani River in Lebanon, warns its Defence Minister
On 24 March, Israel's Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will occupy Lebanon up to the Litani River. In a meeting with the military chief of staff, Katz said that Israel was creating a defensive buffer up to the Litani, which meets the Mediterranean Sea approximately 20 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border. Since 13 March, the IDF has destroyed five bridges over the river and accelerated the destruction of Lebanese villages near the Israeli border with Lebanon. Katz said that the IDF aims to establish a forward defensive line in Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah-linked infrastructure in the region, including homes that Katz said function as "terrorist outposts." He further added that this approach was similar to that taken by the IDF in Gaza.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-military-occupy-swathe-southern-lebanon-defence-chief-says-2026-03-24/
Pakistan: Media reports indicate Islamabad is willing to mediate between the US and Iran
On 24 March, the BBC and Reuters reported that Pakistan was willing to mediate between the US and Iran. According to Dawn, PM Sharif had a telephone conversation earlier with Iran’s President. BBC even reported that US Special Envoy Witcoff could travel to Islamabad for the talks. Earlier today, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson informed that Doha is not mediating between the US and Iran. On Monday, President Trump talked about a dialogue with Tehran and pausing the military strikes on Iran for five days. Iran has denied the same as “fake news” and continued to launch missiles on Israel today.
On 23 March, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the US and Iran have had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution" of their hostilities. As a result, he wrote that he had instructed the US Department of War to postpone all planned military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and power plants for five days. On Saturday, Trump had threatened that all of Iran’s power plants would be destroyed if Tehran failed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
Energy Crisis: The Chief of the International Energy Agency (IEA) says keeping the Hormuz Strait open as the "single most important solution" to address the global energy crisis
On 23 March, International Energy Agency Chief Fatih Birol, speaking at Australia's National Press Club, warned that the global economy faces severe threats from the ongoing Iran war and that no country is immune if the conflict persists. He drew comparisons with past crises - the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, which had caused a loss of roughly 10 million barrels per day. The current crisis has already exceeded that, with losses of approximately 11 million barrels per day. Similarly, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted around 75 BCM of European gas supply, the present crisis has pushed total losses to nearly 140 BCM, almost double. Around 40 energy assets across nine countries have been severely damaged. The IEA has released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilise markets, and is consulting governments across Europe, Asia, North America, and the Middle East on potential further releases. He was unequivocal that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open remains the single most critical solution to the crisis.
Lebanon: Israel to expand attacks against Hezbollah
On 23 March, the BBC reported that the Israeli military had approved plans to expand ground and air operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, raising fears of a large-scale invasion. Chief of General Staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir authorised "targeted ground operations and strikes" in what officials described as a "prolonged operation."Defence Minister Israel Katz ordered forces to destroy bridges over the Litani River, approximately 30km from the Israeli border. These bridges are mainly used by Hezbollah to move reinforcements and to demolish homes in Lebanese border villages, mirroring tactics used in Gaza.
More than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since the escalation began, including 118 children and 40 health workers, with over a million displaced. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the strikes as a "prelude to a ground invasion" amounting to "collective punishment against civilians."The current escalation follows Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and ongoing Israeli strikes despite a ceasefire agreed in November 2024.
On 20 March, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States is getting very close to meeting its objectives in the war against Iran and is considering winding down its military efforts in the Middle East. In his post, Trump detailed five key objectives which he said the US was close to achieving. First, degrading Iran's missile program. Second, destroying Iran's military industry. Third, destroying Iran's Navy, Air Force, and anti-air capabilities. Fourth, never allowing Iran to get close to nuclear capability and ensuring the US is quick to respond to any such development, and fifth, protecting all US allies in the region. Shortly after President Trump's post, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote on X "the President and the Pentagon predicted it would take approximately 4-6 weeks to achieve this mission."
Diego Garcia: Iran fired two missiles but failed to strike the base, reports WSJ; UK authorises US to use its bases to strike Iran missile sites targeting ships in Hormuz
On 20 March, The Wall Street Journal, citing multiple US officials, reported that Iran fired two missiles toward Diego Garcia but failed to strike the US-UK military base. One missile failed in flight, while a US warship launched an SM-3 interceptor at the second, although it remains unclear whether the interception succeeded. The BBC noted the attempt occurred before the United Kingdom agreed to permit the United States to use British bases against Iranian sites targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Diego Garcia, about 3,800 km from Iran, is considered beyond the range of Iran’s missiles. The airbase is strategically located and can accommodate long-range bombers. It has long served as a launchpad for military operations in the Middle East. However, its role in the US strikes on Iran has remained limited, as the UK permitted the use of its bases only for operations targeting the interests of the UK and its regional allies.
India and Iran: PM Modi condemns attacks on critical infrastructure in call with Iran’s President Pezeshkian
On 21 March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, noting that they threaten regional stability and disrupt global supply chains. He reiterated the significance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and emphasised that shipping lanes must remain open and secure. The Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Prime Minister expressed deep concern over the evolving security situation and reaffirmed India’s consistent position that all issues must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. He also appreciated Iran’s continued support in ensuring the safety and security of Indian nationals in the country. This marks the second such conversation between the two leaders since the conflict began.
Iran attacks an oil refinery in Kuwait; Israeli strikes kill an IRGC spokesperson
On 20 March, Reuters reported that Iran attacked an oil refinery in Kuwait while Israel killed a spokesperson of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as the escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran continued. Iranian state television confirmed that Ali Mohammad Naini, spokesperson for the IRGC and its deputy of public relations, was killed in strikes by the US and Israel. Naini’s killing forms part of a series of high-profile targeted strikes that have significantly impacted Iran’s establishment in less than three weeks, reported Al Jazeera. Earlier in the week, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a prominent figure in Iran’s establishment, was killed in a strike alongside his son and several aides. Within the same 48-hour period, Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij paramilitary forces, and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib were also confirmed dead. On 20 March, the Israeli military stated that it had also killed Esmail Ahmadi, a senior intelligence figure part of the IRGC’s Basij unit, in an attack on Tehran earlier in the week. As per media reports, Iranian authorities did not comment on Israel’s claim regarding Ahmadi’s death.
On 20 March, The Hindu reported that US President Donald Trump condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to attack the South Pars gas field. Trump told Netanyahu not to repeat the kind of attack Israel carried out on the world's largest gas field. The Guardian reported that Netanyahu also confirmed that Israel acted alone, but did not clarify whether Trump was made aware of the decision. Furthermore, he stated that President Trump was not “dragged” into the war by him, amid growing speculations that the two leaders have differing war aims. Moreover, the attack has prompted Iran to retaliate against energy infrastructure in other West Asian countries, damaging the world's largest gas plant in Qatar. This is the first notable disagreement between the two leaders since the US-Israel and Iran conflict started. In a social media post on 18 March, Trump remarked that he “knew nothing about this particular attack," even as three Israeli officials told Reuters the strike was coordinated with the United States. The White House declined to comment further when asked about the information from the remarks of the three Israeli officials. Furthermore, top US officials stated that the US and Israel have different objectives in the war. The US air campaign has focused on decimating Iran's missile programme; meanwhile, Israel is focused on toppling the Islamic regime that took over in 1979.
On 19 March, the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Canada and Japan released a joint statement. which condemned Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on civilian infrastructure, especially Gulf-owned commercial tankers, oil and gas infrastructure. The statement, demanding Iran halt its attacks, said: "We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817." The joint statement further emphasised that any attacks on global energy shipping routes and freedom of navigation threaten international peace and security. It welcomed the International Energy Agency's decision to coordinate a release of strategic oil reserves to maintain global energy prices. The statement also committed to providing support to petroleum-producing nations to increase global output. The statement further stated that they would also aid the most affected nations through multilateral mechanisms such as the UN.
On 20 March, Reuters reported that the Pentagon had requested more than USD 200 billion in supplemental funding from Congress to cover operations. This has received strong pushback from Democrats and some Republicans despite record defence spending already approved in recent budgets, including USD 840 billion for fiscal 2026. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth defended the request by stating that “It takes money to kill bad guys.” The officials estimate the first six days cost over USD 11 billion, and daily expenses now run USD 1-2 billion. Meanwhile, the administration has approved roughly USD 7 billion in additional arms to the UAE (including Patriot PAC-3 missiles and CH-47 Chinooks) on top of USD 16.5 billion in other announced regional sales. Discussions are also underway about deploying thousands more US troops to the region. This is argued to be potentially used to secure oil tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz or seize control of Iran’s critical Kharg Island oil export hub. No final decision has been made on the ground.
19 MARCH 2026: DAY 20
The US: Washington's objectives in Iran stay unchanged, says the US Defence Secretary
On 19 March, Reuters reported that Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said US objectives in Iran remain unchanged, even as discussions over increased military funding continue. His remarks suggest that the focus is still on achieving core military goals rather than expanding the scope of the conflict. He also claimed that the US military has struck seven thousand targets in Iran, additionally damaging or sinking over one hundred and twenty Iranian ships. Pete Hegseth. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US government “may unsanction the Iranian oil” that is already being shipped. It amounts to about 140 million barrels, and the US could also release more oil from its own strategic reserves to combat the global energy crisis in light of escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Oil and Natural gas prices have soared by nearly 10 per cent, reaching USD 118 a barrel. In an attempt to reduce prices, last week the US removed sanctions on Russian oil at sea and even allowed Iranian-linked ships and companies to transport and sell Russian oil on the open market.
Trump considers deploying troops in Iran
On 18 March, Reuters reported that a US official, along with three other people familiar with the matter, disclosed that the Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of US troops to the Middle East. These considerations primarily concern securing the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island. Quoting sources, the Reuters report said the operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz would mainly be conducted by the US Air Force and Navy. They further added that the US might deploy troops to the Iranian coastline. The official also said that the Trump administration was discussing the deployment of troops to Kharg Island, which is a major economic hub that accounts for 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports. On 13 March, the US had bombed Iran's military assets on the Island and threatened to destroy the oil infrastructure. Military experts suggest that taking over the Island would be a better option. However, this would also risk the lives of US servicemen as the Kharg Island lies within the range of Iranian drones and missiles.
Saudi Arabia: Foreign Minister warns patience in Gulf is not “unlimited”
On 19 March, Al Jazeera reported Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister’s remarks that Gulf states possess “very significant capacities and capabilities” to respond to continued attacks by Iran. Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud called on Tehran to immediately “recalculate” its strategy, and put forth that tolerance of its attacks on his country and the neighbouring Gulf states is limited. “The patience that is being exhibited is not unlimited,” he added. Prince Faisal’s remarks followed a meeting of foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic countries in Riyadh earlier on 19 March to discuss the escalation of the war. According to the Foreign Minister: “The level of accuracy in some of this targeting… indicates that this is something that was premeditated, preplanned, preorganised and well thought out.” This comes in the backdrop of recent developments, including Iranian attacks on Gulf energy sites such as Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility and the UAE’s Habshan gas facility. Prince Faisal further put forth that Iran’s approach reflects a long-term strategy and that trust has been completely broken. “If Iran doesn’t stop … immediately, I think there will be almost nothing that can re-establish that trust,” he added.
18 MARCH 2026: DAY 19
Iran says shift unlikely in nuclear doctrine, pushes for a new Hormuz protocol; “This is America’s war,” says Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi
On 18 March, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated in an interview that Iran will maintain its position of being against the development of nuclear weapons. He also stated that the Gulf must draft new rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that the new protocol must allow free passage only when it is aligned with Iranian and regional interests. He also stated, “This is America’s war.”
Gulf countries look for alternative sea routes amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade
On 18 March, according to media reports, the Gulf countries are looking for alternate routes, as Iran continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, Gulf countries have begun shipping via pipelines that bypass the strait to address the situation. The East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu has become Saudi Arabia’s pivot for increasing shipments. According to the IEA’s March Oil Market Report, flows have surged to a record daily export of 5.9 mb/d on March 9, and the pipeline is expected to reach its full capacity of 7 mb/d within a few days. The UAE is also raising exports through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which connects onshore fields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Between March 1 and 10, the pipeline averaged 1.8 mb/d, reaching the line’s reported maximum capacity of around 1 mb/d before the crisis. While Gulf nations struggle to find alternatives to Hormuz, Iran has continued to ship oil at a rate of 1.1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day.
Israel strikes Lebanon again, targeting central Beirut today
On 18 March, Reuters reported that Israeli warplanes struck central Beirut in the early hours of Wednesday. It was seen destroying apartment buildings in what officials described as some of the most intense bombardment of the Lebanese capital in decades. In the Bachoura district, Israel has flattened an entire building it claimed was used by Hezbollah, while strikes on two other central districts killed at least 10 people with no prior warning given to residents. Over 900 people have now been killed across Lebanon and 800,000 forced to flee their homes.
Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib killed, claims Israel
On 18 March, Al Jazeera reported that Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, claimed that Esmail Katib, Iran’s Intelligence Minister, was killed along with other senior ministry figures in an overnight strike by the Israeli Army in Tehran. According to Iran International, Esmail Katib has served in the Judiciary and was appointed as the Intelligence Minister in 2021. He is believed to be closely associated with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. This news is followed by Israel’s killing of top Iranian security official Ali Larijani and the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij force on 17 March. However, there has been no confirmation from Iranian authorities so far regarding Esmail Khatib’s death.
17 MARCH 2026: DAY 18
Israel: Tel Aviv targets Iran’s security officials; Defence minister claims to have killed Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council
On 17 March, Israel's Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, announced that Israel had eliminated Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), along with Gholamerza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary force, in separate strikes. So far, Iran has not confirmed either of these claims. Ali Larijani was appointed as the Secretary of the SNSC following US strikes on Iran in June 2025. He also played a key diplomatic role in Iran's foreign affairs. If Larijani's death is confirmed, then he would be the second senior-most leader killed by Israel, following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The Iranian state media released a note handwritten by Ali Larijani, which commemorated the lives lost in the recent conflict. However, this note is expected to be written hours before the strike and doesn't confirm if he is alive. An Israeli official was also noted saying that "there was no chance he survived this attack."
On 17 March, Reuters reported on European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas asking the US and Israel to end the war with Iran, stressing that Europe will not deploy troops in a conflict it did not initiate. According to Reuters, “Kallas also said the door was not closed to European participation in efforts to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz but it would be most likely to come as part of a diplomatic solution.”
Earlier, Keir Starmer said discussions on a “viable plan” are ongoing, while Emmanuel Macron proposed a maritime coalition only after the conflict’s peak subsides. Germany has outright distanced itself, stating: “This is not our war.” Meanwhile, China, Japan, and South Korea have called for de-escalation and are reviewing limited responses. There are no indications that any of these countries are willing to commit forces, underscoring a broad international reluctance to enter the conflict.
On 17 March, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) stated that global acute hunger could reach record levels in 2026 as a result of escalation in the Middle East. In a recent analysis, the WFP estimated that nearly 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict continues and oil prices remain above USD 100 per barrel. This would bring the total to 318 million already affected worldwide. Previous shocks, such as the 2022 war in Ukraine, pushed global hunger to 349 million; the WFP indicates that we could face a similar situation if the Middle East conflict continues. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping are already raising fuel and fertilizer costs. Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia could face the greatest risks due to import dependence. According to WFP’s projections, there is a possibility of a 21 per cent increase in food-insecure people in West and Central Africa, 17 per cent in East and Southern Africa, and over 24 per cent in Asia. This comes in the backdrop of severe funding shortfalls for the WFP. The UN agency notes that an increase in food insecurity without a corresponding increase in resources could be catastrophic for some of the world’s most vulnerable and famine-prone countries.
Israel: Tel Aviv plans three more weeks of strikes against Iran; IDF spokesperson says "thousands of targets ahead" as
On 15 March, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) stated that it had planned detailed operations against Iran for at least the next three weeks. The Israeli military has declared that thousands of targets still exist in Iran which it has yet to hit. Israeli Army Spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Derrin declared that the IDF is ready, in coordination with the United States military, to carry out operations against Iran “ through at least the Jewish holiday of Passover, about three weeks from now." He also stated that Israel has deeper plans for "the three weeks beyond that." The IDF aims to strike Tehran's command nodes, security infrastructure, ballistic missile systems and nuclear reactors. He emphasised that the IDF is working according to its objectives and "not working according to a stopwatch or timetable." These objectives, he noted, were to severely weaken the Iranian regime and its military capacity to strike Israel.
UK: PM Starmer says "UK won't be drawn into a wider war"
On March 16, the UK PM Keir Starmer announced that he has no intention of drawing the UK into the regional war. His statement follows President Trump's demand to deploy the Navy in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Starmer declared that his primary objective is to secure the safety of the British people in West Asia. For him, the UK has three key priorities: protection of British citizens in West Asia; safety of the UK and its allies; and to work towards a swift resolution.
India-Iran talks aim to ease shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
On 16 March, Reuters reported that India has expressed guarded optimism that ongoing strategic outreach with Iran could help restore smoother passage for Indian vessels through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. Indian officials believe recent talks have already shown early signs of easing disruptions to shipping routes essential to the country’s energy security. As part of these negotiations, Tehran has reportedly asked New Delhi to release three tankers - Asphalt Star, Al Jafzia, and Stellar Ruby, that were detained by India in February on allegations of identity concealment and illegal ship-to-ship transfers near Indian waters. The vessels are currently anchored off Mumbai. During the discussions, Iran has also requested supplies of medicines and medical equipment, while its ambassador recently met officials from India’s foreign ministry to advance the talks. Despite India’s official stance that there is no formal exchange arrangement, diplomatic engagement appears to be yielding gradual results. Iran has already allowed two Indian LPG tankers to transit the Strait, offering some relief as at least 22 Indian-flagged vessels and over 600 Indian seafarers remain in the Gulf region awaiting safe passage.
Dubai: Drone attack sparks fire near the International Airport.
On 16 March, a major fire erupted at the Dubai International Airport, as drone strikes hit a fuel tank near the facility amid the US-Israel and Iran conflict, further disrupting the region. Flight operations were temporarily suspended at one of the busiest airports in the world, with Air India cancelling all of its flights to Dubai for the day. Dubai authorities later confirmed that civil defence teams were immediately deployed to curtail the damage and successfully contained the fire after two hours. According to official reports, no injuries have been reported so far. More than five hours after the drone attack was reported, officials announced that flight operations at the airport were gradually resuming for select destinations. The UAE authorities also announced that their systems were intercepting missiles and drones launched from Iran, as defense alarms were rung in several parts of the city after the attack.
Israel launches targeted ground operations against Hezbollah in parts of southern Lebanon
On 16 March, Israel expanded its military operations in southern Lebanon, deploying additional forces as part of a widening ground offensive against Hezbollah. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said troops from its 91st Division have begun “limited and targeted” ground operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure and strengthening Israel’s forward defence along the border. According to Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani, the operations focus on specific militant positions and are intended to prevent attacks on northern Israeli communities, though officials declined to specify how far the troops would advance. The escalation follows a barrage of rockets fired by Hezbollah on March 2, which the group said was in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Since a ceasefire was reached in November 2024, Israel has maintained several military positions in southern Lebanon, but recent hostilities have intensified cross-border clashes. Israeli air raids have also targeted multiple towns in the region, including Khiam, a strategic Hezbollah stronghold near the border. The broader regional conflict, linked to ongoing Israeli and US military actions against Iran, has drawn much of the Middle East into the crisis, raising fears of further escalation and deepening humanitarian consequences across the region.
Africa: The US-Iran war disrupts supply chains, raising food and energy concerns
On 16 March, countries in Africa are heavily dependent on fertilisers imported from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. Almost fifty-four per cent of Sudan’s, thirty per cent of Somalia’s and twenty-six per cent of Kenya’s fertilisers arrive through this route from the Middle East. The Gulf states produce urea and other phosphate fertilisers because of abundant, cheap natural gas. The prices of oil, gas and fertilisers have soared since the start of the war, affecting vulnerable people employed in the informal sector, especially in Africa. African exports of food products to the Middle East have been affected, while the rise in crude oil prices has benefited countries like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola. African economies are also vulnerable due to their greater dependence on foreign markets, high debt levels, budgetary pressures, volatile commodity exports, and weak infrastructure. Countries like Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia are bracing for the potential shock by taking necessary steps such as strengthening strategic fuel reserves and introducing a special fuel subsidy.
ANALYSIS
The UN and the Iran-US War:
UNSC Resolution 2817 between “Clear and Unified Message” and “Manifest Injustice”
What happened?
On 11 March, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2817, addressing the escalating tensions in the Middle East. 13 countries voted in favour, with Russia and China abstaining.
What is the background?
1. Escalation of tensions in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz
The rapid escalation of hostilities in the Gulf has compelled the UNSC to respond. Iran’s attacks on neighbouring states and commercial vessels have increased the risks of drawing regional countries, proxy groups, and external powers into direct involvement. The targeting of ships and infrastructure in and around the Strait of Hormuz has also threatened to transform regional tensions into a global security issue.
A key factor behind the resolution is the strategic importance of Gulf maritime routes to the global energy system. The Strait of Hormuz serves as one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, carrying a significant share of global crude shipments. Disruptions to shipping or threats to close the strait can rapidly affect energy prices, insurance costs, and supply chains worldwide. As attacks on vessels and infrastructure intensified, concerns grew that the war could destabilise global markets and disrupt energy flows to major importing regions. The Security Council, therefore, acted to safeguard the stability of international trade and energy supply networks.
The UNSC resolution 2817 reflects the widening geopolitical divisions within the UNSC. While most members supported a resolution condemning attacks and calling for restraint, they differed in their interpretations of the crisis and the responsibility for escalation.
What does it mean?
First, the importance of energy routes. Any disruption to the most critical energy chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can affect global energy markets, trade flows, and economic stability. By addressing attacks targeting maritime security, the Security Council signalled the importance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and protecting critical energy transit routes from conflict-related disruptions.
14 MARCH 2026: DAY 15
US strikes Iran’s Kharg Island; Tehran warns of retaliation
On 14 March, President Trump warned that the US would continue strikes on Kharg Island if Iran maintained disruptions to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island, located in the northern Gulf, is Iran’s main oil export terminal and handles nearly 90 per cent of the country’s crude shipments. As the backbone of Iran’s energy exports, attacks on the island could severely disrupt Iran’s oil revenues and global energy markets. Trump has claimed US forces had already “totally obliterated” several military targets on the island. The Pentagon has also signalled an intensified campaign, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth indicating the deployment of record numbers of fighters, bombers and strike missions. In response, Iran has warned to retaliate against continued strikes and defend its energy infrastructure. Iranian officials warned that any continued attacks on Kharg Island would trigger retaliatory strikes against US interests and energy infrastructure in the region.
Trump wants UK, France, Japan and other countries to send forces to keep the Strait open, safe and free
On 24 March, the BBC referred to posts from President Trump asking China, UK, France and Japan to send forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz free. The report quoted Trump saying, “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!.”
Hamas asks Tehran not to target neighbouring countries
On 14 March, Reuters reported Hamas asking Iran not to target its neighbouring countries. According to the statement, Hamas said: "While the group affirms Iran's right to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, it calls upon our brothers in Iran not to target neighbouring countries.” While Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, has targeted Israel following the US-Iran War, Hamas and the Houthis have not attacked Israel or other Western targets. According to Reuters, Hamas has also asked the international organizations to stop the war.
US Defence Secretary says Iran’s supreme leader wounded and in hiding during the strikes
On 13 March, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in hiding, “wounded” and “likely disfigured” following recent strikes. According to the US officials, the Iranian leadership has gone underground as military operations target missile stockpiles and weapons production facilities. Tehran has not confirmed the extent of the injuries, with an Iranian official stating that Khamenei was only lightly wounded and remains active in his duties.
On 13 March, the oil prices surged past USD 100 per barrel after several cargo vessels were struck in the Gulf. In response to rising prices, the United States said it would temporarily ease sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil.
On 13 March, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised the US for its decision to temporarily relax sanctions on Russian oil, stating that the decision could weaken pressure on Vladimir Putin despite the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The temporary lifting of sanctions by the United States Department of the Treasury allows countries to purchase Russian oil already in transit for 30 days. Chancellor Merz stated that easing sanctions at this time was “wrong” and that, in response to Russia's little willingness to negotiate, Washington should increase pressure on Moscow. He stated that support for Ukraine should continue amid the war in Iran. Germany’s economy minister Katherina Reiche expressed concern that easing restrictions could allow Russia to continue benefiting financially and it might effectively contribute to fund Vladimir Putin’s war efforts. After G7 discussions, Emmanuel Macron stated that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz "in no way" justify relaxing sanctions on Russia. Amidst this, global oil markets remain under pressure as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupt energy trade. The International Energy Agency approved the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to stabilise markets, though rising fuel prices may still appear to be a political challenge for the Donald Trump administration.
On 13 March, footage analysed by international media showed an explosion near a pro-government rally after new strikes were reported in the city. The attacks are part of a broader campaign targeting military infrastructure across Iran. Iranian forces have also launched missiles and drones toward Israel and other regional targets, signalling continued retaliation. Separately, the US military confirmed that four crew members aboard a refuelling aircraft that crashed over Iraq have died. Officials stated that the incident was not caused by hostile or friendly fire.
ANALYSIS
The US-Iran War, Week Two:
Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout
Rohini Reenum
The US-Israeli offensive
Between 5 and 12 March, the US and Israel continued the heavy bombardment of Iran, especially its capital, Tehran, with targets expanding from military and strategic sites to energy infrastructure.
Between 7 and 11 March, Iran launched waves of drones and missiles at critical facilities, including Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field and the Abadan refinery. On 10 March, Saudi Arabia announced that it had intercepted six ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base and several drones over the eastern city of Hafar al-Batin. On the same day, a swarm of Iranian drones struck the Ruwais industrial city in Abu Dhabi, forcing the state oil giant ADNOC to shut down the refinery as a precautionary measure. On 11 March, multiple drones struck fuel storage tanks at the Port of Salalah and Duqm, in Oman, causing massive fires. On the same day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran remained committed to regional peace and outlined three conditions to end the war: “recognition of Tehran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression.”
On 12 March, the UN Security Council voted in favour of a resolution sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and co-sponsored by a record 135 member states, demanding “immediate cessation” of attacks by Iran against Gulf countries and Jordan. The resolution also termed these attacks “a breach of international law and a serious threat to international peace and security.” The resolution also acknowledged the right of these countries to respond, either individually or collectively, under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Further, it condemned Iran’s attempts to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab Al Mandab. The resolution, however, made no reference to the US-Israeli aggression, leading Russia to abstain and terming the text “extremely unbalanced." China also abstained, reasoning that the text did not adequately reflect “the broader dynamics of the conflict.”
1. A brief note on the role of the Supreme Leader and the process of his election
The post was created following the 1979 Iranian Revolution and instituted as the office of “rahbar,” meaning “leader.” The Constitution recognizes the Leader as the highest authority in the country. He is the head of state and commander in chief of the army and wields wide-ranging powers; he oversees the appointment and dismissal of important government and military officials, like the highest commanders of the armed forces and security bodies, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the head of the state broadcaster, the head of the judiciary, and the chief of general staff. He also determines the general political direction of the government, and is solely responsible for declaring war, peace, and mobilization of the armed forces, and approves the appointment of the President after the election. The Leader is elected by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is a deliberative body mandated with overseeing the Supreme Leader’s worthiness to lead the country. The members of the Assembly are elected every eight years by the Guardian Council, half of whose members are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the other half recommended by the Head of the Judiciary (who is himself a Leader-appointee).
2. Tehran’s expanding targets and threats
During the second week of the 2026 conflict, Tehran dramatically expanded its target list, shifting from a narrow focus on military assets. Like the first week, Tehran has continued its diffused attacks across the Middle East, targeting primarily the Gulf countries alongside Israel, Iraq, and Jordan. However, from restricting its attacks on US and allied military installations in the earlier week, Iran has now also started targeting energy infrastructure. Reports have also confirmed an attack on the Dubai International Airport. Iran has also started attacking vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened to lay mines. This has driven the price of crude oil past the USD 100 mark. Additionally, it has issued warnings to tech giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia as “future targets,” highlighting their role in supporting the US-Israeli campaign.
3. America’s shifting goalposts
While earlier announcing that the War would last four to five weeks, followed by an assertion that the US was prepared for a longer conflict, Trump has become increasingly evasive about any timeline for the war's conclusion. Interestingly, in his latest remarks, Trump has claimed that the War was pretty much over, citing the destruction of the Iranian Navy and Air Force. This is even though his other war objectives announced earlier are far from being achieved. Earlier claims of an active pursuit of regime change have taken a back seat, with Trump expressing only his displeasure with the non-consultation in selecting the new Supreme Leader. Trump has also, without providing any concrete evidence, claimed that the Iranian Navy and Air Force have been decimated and that the new supreme leader has been removed.
4. The significance of drone warfare
The use of drone warfare gained particular momentum since the start of the Ukraine War and has continued as a dominant strategy since. The low-cost, low-casualty weapon has become an important tool in asymmetric wars. Along with ballistic missiles, Iran has relied heavily on its drone capabilities to sustain pressure across the Middle East and raise the cost of war. Tehran’s drone strategy has relied on the principle of mass usage, wherein it uses high volumes of low-cost drones in attack waves to overwhelm sophisticated and expensive air defense systems. For instance, to shoot down a USD 30,000 drone, a USD 4 million Patriot interceptor is used, which is indicative of Iran using exhaustion tactics. The drone waves also serve as bait for radar systems, forcing defenders to engage and reveal their positions. Given this dynamic, reportedly, Ukrainian military experts (who have massive experience in tackling Iranian drones being used by Russia) have arrived in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to help them defend against drones. A BBC report also suggested that other Ukrainian experts are helping the US do the same in Jordan.
During the second week of the conflict, the United Nations became a battleground for competing diplomatic narratives and brought to light international geopolitical faultlines. The overwhelming acceptance of the resolution tabled by the Gulf countries, supported by 135 UN General Assembly members, is indicative of the wider support for the GCC countries and Tehran’s diplomatic isolation. On the other hand, Russian and Chinese abstentions versus vetoes also indicate the limited extent of their diplomatic support for Iran at multilateral forums.
In perspective
First, in the second week, the Iran War has metastasized from a terrestrial military campaign, engulfing the region, into an evolving maritime-economic conflict. With Iran’s Supreme Leader and other officials at the helm, communicating defiance and demonstrating the capability to stick out a war of attrition, any hope of immediate negotiation with the US seems unlikely. This unlikelihood is compounded by President Trump’s trumpeting of war victory, threats of intensified attacks, and zero hints at a diplomatic turnabout.
Second, the international community has also failed to respond to the War in a balanced manner, generating global economic ramifications. By singling out Iranian attacks as “egregious,” without recognizing the role played by the US-Israel duo in sparking them, the international community has not only failed to address the nuances and contours of this decades-long rivalry but brought into question which countries can act in self-defense and which cannot, creating a hierarchy of legitimacy. This asymmetry of international legal application does not bode well for the role the United Nations was instituted to play for the cause of international peace and security.
ANALYSIS
Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation:
Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals
On 02 March, in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah launched strikes at Israel’s missile defence systems in the southern city of Haifa. Israel retaliated by carrying out "precise and targeted" strikes against "senior terrorist elements” of Hezbollah in Beirut. The strikes killed Hezbollah's intelligence chief, Hussain Makled and over 300 civilians.
1. The Hezbollah-Iran equation
Hezbollah emerged as a Shiite movement ideologically inspired by Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Its ideology is rooted in Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini's theological theories that demand expulsion of Western influence, destruction of Israel, allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader and establishment of an Islamic state. Funded and trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah positions itself as a “resistance” movement against Zionism and Western imperialism.
The Hezbollah-Israel conflict started with the latter’s 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon. In 2006, a UN-brokered ceasefire and Resolution created a demilitarised buffer zone between Lebanon’s southern border and Israel along the Blue Line and the Litani River. The conflict renewed in October 2023, when Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, sparking nearly a year of border clashes and the killing of long-standing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Under a US brokered ceasefire in November 2024, Hezbollah was to withdraw north of the Litani River and disarm, while Israel was to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon and allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to take control. The latest outbreak is a complete violation of the ceasefire agreement, launching both states into a full-blown war.
Hezbollah is a major political actor in Lebanon, supported by the Shia community and capitalising on widespread grievances over political and economic marginalization by the country’s Sunni and Christian elites. It also grew its support base by delivering social services more effectively than the chronically weak Lebanese government, including hospitals, schools, post-war reconstruction, and even its own micro-finance institutions, gaining grassroots loyalty unlike any other Lebanese faction. Hezbollah’s major political sway has impeded the administration from exercising control over the group and defers to the group on security matters in Shia-majority regions. However, since the 2024 ceasefire agreement, the administration has taken bolder moves towards curbing the group's militant activities, even attempting to disarm the faction and centralise the flow of weapons in the country. The government’s latest rebuke is the harshest condemnation, revealing the rift between the state and Hezbollah.
Southern Lebanon, sharing its borders with Israel, is strategically vital for Hezbollah, with the rugged terrain suited for guerrilla warfare. It has long been the theatre of Israeli-Hezbollah confrontations with major Israeli cities, including Haifa, Safed, and Nahariya, within range of attack. Israel also claims that Hezbollah has extensive military infrastructure across the area, including underground munitions factories, command bunkers and tunnel networks. The region is also home to a major Shia population and a Hezbollah stronghold. The Litani River, Lebanon’s largest river and a major source of water, also flows through the region. Israel perceives it as its natural border and insists that Hezbollah does not breach the Blue Line and cross beyond the river. Israel’s current ground operation is designed to dismantle Hezbollah’s military assets, depopulate the area and establish a secure buffer zone along the Litani River.
In perspective
The renewed conflict has provided Israel with a long-sought strategic opening to pursue its goal of eliminating Hezbollah as a military threat. Israel is unlikely to pursue diplomatic means with Lebanon and forgo the opportunity to militarily defeat the group, particularly since the administration lacks the capacity to disarm and neutralise the group.
12 MARCH 2026: DAY 13
The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, US embassies in the region to be immediately shut down, demands Iran’s new Supreme Leader in first public statement
On 12 March, Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since taking over as Iran’s new supreme leader, announcing that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed in order to pressure the adversaries. He also asserted that while Iran believes in friendship, the US bases in the region will continue to be attacked and should be immediately closed. Khamanei thanked the military for their service and stated that the resistance in Yemen and Iraq “will also do the job,” and “want to help” the Islamic revolution.
Tehran lays out three major conditions to end the war including reparations and guarantees against future aggression
On 11 March, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian laid out three key conditions to end the ongoing war– “recognising Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression,” he stated in a social media post. Iran has long upheld its civilian nuclear programme as a legitimate right of the country, but the announcement is the first time Iran has demanded reparations as a condition to end the conflict.
US intelligence declines the possibility of regime collapse as Tehran intensifies attacks
On 12 March, Reuters, in an exclusive report, revealed that Iran’s leadership is not under the risk of collapse and “retains control over the Iranian public.” The observations echo a recent Israeli report on the stability of the regime. Further, more Iranian drones were seen flying into Kuwait, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain and Oman despite US and Israeli claims that much of Iran’s stock of long-range weapons have been destroyed. Two more tankers in Iraqi ports were also struck by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats.
Israel-Hezbollah Confrontations: Hezbollah escalates strikes on Israel as Tel Aviv declines Beirut’s request to halt firing to facilitate negotiations
On 12 March, Hezbollah intensified strikes against Israel, announcing Operation “Eaten Straw,” launching more than 100 missiles at Israeli targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said later that they had carried out some strikes with Hezbollah, “in a joint and integrated operation.” The strikes targeted areas including Israeli military bases in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Beersheba. In retaliation, Israel battered Beirut's southern suburbs. Israel has also turned down Lebanon administration's demands to halt the attack to initiate negotiations, asserting that the talks happen “under fire.”
11 MARCH 2026: DAY 12
IEA deliberates releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves
On 11 March, the International Energy Agency stated that it proposed releasing 400 million barrels per day from strategic oil reserves, adding that 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to make emergency reserves available to the market. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry also revealed plans to release around 80 million barrels from its private and national oil reserves.
Tehran strikes three more vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, warns the world to prepare for oil prices to hit USD 200 million
On 11 March, three more vessels were hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any ship passing through the Strait would be targeted. The IRGC statement highlighted that the ship was "fired upon by Iranian fighters," suggesting the first direct engagement by the Guards, who have previously fired missiles or drones. Iran's military spokesperson, Zolfaqari, later warned the world to "Get ready for oil be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilised."
On 11 March, Reuters reported that Israel was uncertain that the war would lead to regime change and that "Washington is not close to instructing an end to the conflict." The report cites senior Israeli officials. Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated that the war would continue until Tel Aviv and Washington determined the time had come to end hostilities, but that Israel did not seek endless war.