NIAS Europe Studies

EM COMMENT

Photo Source:
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 2330, 5 November 2026
CW Note
The Russia-Ukraine War:

  Advik Sunanda Mohan
Advik Sunanda Mohan is a postgraduate student from SciencesPo, Paris.  He is currently interning at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru. His research interests include conflict research, geopolitics of the Asia Pacific and E

In the news
On 23 October, the White House issued a statement that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop all military operations in the Russian-controlled Oleshky – a Ukrainian city, from 27 October. A humanitarian ceasefire for six days was agreed upon to facilitate the delivery of aid and preparations for evacuation of civilians.  According to reports, the US first lady, Melania Trump, and her team had helped broker the ceasefire, in coordination with Russian and Ukrainian leadership. 

On 27 October, Russia and Ukraine began observing the ceasefire in Oleshky. On 29 October, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of being responsible for a humanitarian catastrophe.

On 01 November, residents from Oleshky entered the rest of Ukraine in an evacuation operation. The residents were flown from Russian-occupied territory into Belarus, before taking a bus to Ukraine. Zelenskyy informed that the evacuated residents would receive all the aid.

On 02 November, the ceasefire officially came to an end. Ukraine accused Russia of having used the ceasefire period to fortify its military positions and get new ammunition supplies.

On 03 November, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed that the humanitarian ceasefire in Oleshky be replicated for brokering other ceasefires to protect energy and shipping infrastructure. He also stated that any lasting peace agreement required European support.

Issues at large
1. The humanitarian situation in Oleshky
The Ukrainian town has been under Russian occupation, since the beginning of the invasion. It has been facing a shortage of food supplies, and running out of medical supplies. Aid agencies stated that most of the 2,000 residents left in the town were facing the risk of starvation. Residents had stated ambulances operating was difficult, due to the risk of Russian drone attacks. Following are major reasons for the continuing situation in Oleshky. The mining of nearby roads by Russian and Ukrainian FPV drones has facilitated the creation of a “kill zone” wherein civilians and vehicles get targeted by attacks. Additionally, the destruction of the neighbouring Kakhovka Dam in 2023 caused massive flooding of infrastructure in Oleshky, and destroyed the power grid, cutting off energy supplies. Finally, the blockade by Russian forces in May 2026, cut off all food and medical shipments into Oleshky. 

2. The continued failures and violations of ceasefires in Ukraine
There have been several attempts to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine before, which soon collapsed. But there has been a failure of any ceasefire to hold for a lengthy period of time. For instance, in 2022, the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross organized "green corridors," or humanitarian windows, wherein civilians could be evacuated safely from cities like Mariupol at the risk of attacks. However, these “green corridors” did not entirely work since Ukraine accused Russia of violating them with attacks on evacuation routes and civilian infrastructure. Another similar ceasefire was organized in April this year to stop all military operations and strikes to mark the occasion of Orthodox Easter. This ceasefire was also beset with multiple accusations of violations. 

In perspective
The Oleshky ceasefire succeeded in meeting its stated objective of evacuating the civilians from the town and alleviating the humanitarian situation. However, it remains to be seen if the ceasefire can help facilitate broader talks between the two sides. There exist certain red lines, such as Russia’s territorial demands in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and Kyiv’s wish for security guarantees. Additionally, there were several attacks on civilians and infrastructure reported after the conclusion of the Oleshky ceasefire. However, humanitarian truces similar to Oleshky for safeguarding civilians could be brokered on a localized scale.

The larger question is whether narrow ceasefires will result in peace. The forthcoming trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine scheduled for later this month become important in this context. Zelenskyy has already outlined a few pre-conditions for Kyiv before the talks. The most important one for the president is that any deal that negotiates an end to the war must ensure robust security guarantees for Ukraine. Zelenskyy has stated there must be no enforced limits on the size of the Ukrainian security forces, or to forcefully compel them to remain neutral. The president has also indicated a willingness to be involved with NATO, suggesting that member states could agree to cover Ukraine under Article 5 if Kyiv could not join the alliance. Other preconditions include an end to attacks on energy infrastructure, and maritime safety guarantees. This indicates a firm stance to safeguard its security from the Ukrainian perspective.

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENT

CW Note
November 2026 | CWA # 2330

Advik Sunanda Mohan | Advik Sunanda Mohan is a postgraduate student from SciencesPo, Paris.  He is currently interning at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru. His research interests include conflict research, geopolitics of the Asia Pacific and E

The Russia-Ukraine War:
CW Note
October 2026 | CWA # 2296

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The War in Ukraine:
CW Note
October 2026 | CWA # 2286

Preetha Renganarayanan | Preetha Renganarayanan is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

Students Protest in France:
Global Politics Explainer
September 2026 | CWA # 2269

Urja R Kudalkar | Urja R Kudalkar is a post graduate student at Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences. She is currently interning at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

France and Syria:
CW Note
August 2026 | CWA # 2237

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The Ceuta Migration Crisis:
TWTW Note
August 2026 | CWA # 2223

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate scholar at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. She is also a Research Intern at NIAS, Bengaluru.

President Zelenskyy's visit to the US:
TWTW Note
July 2026 | CWA # 2201

Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a postgraduate in International Studies and International Humanitarian Action. He is currently a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader team.

Ten Years and Seven Prime Ministers in the UK:
TWTW Note
July 2026 | CWA # 2186

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. 

NATO Summit 2026:
CW Note
July 2026 | CWA # 2181

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS

The War in Ukraine:
The World This Quarter
June 2026 | CWA # 2166

Ramya B | Ramya B is an Associate Professor at the Department of History, Kristu Jayanti Deemed to be University, Bengaluru

Russia (April-June 2026)
The World This Quarter
June 2026 | CWA # 2165

Himani Pant | Dr Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi

Europe (April-June 2026)
CW Note
June 2026 | CWA # 2160

Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.

The War in Ukraine:
TWTW Takeaways
June 2026 | CWA # 2154

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The G7 Summit 2026
CW Note
June 2026 | CWA # 2150

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS. 

The War in Ukraine:
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.

The War in Ukraine:
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B | Ramya B is an Associate Professor at the Department of History, Kristu Jayanti University, Bengaluru

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant | Dr Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts