|
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair and M Kejia
5 July 2025 |
In the news
On 13 June, Israel launched air strikes on Iran’s central nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, defence infrastructure, and civilian headquarters. Key figures, including the Supreme Leader's adviser and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ali Shamkhani, Iran's armed forces chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami, and the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ air force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, were killed in the attack.
On 14 June, Iran retaliated by launching several ballistic missiles at Israel’s defence structures in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Israel, backed by the US, shot down several missiles. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, responded to the strikes, warning that “the citizens of Iran will pay a heavy price” and that “Tehran will burn” if Iran does not back down. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added that “more is on the way.”
On 15 June, Israel and Iran launched attacks on each other, and Iran reported that at least 138 people were killed. Israel’s authorities stated that at least ten people were killed and more than 140 were injured. Israel’s official stated Israel still has a long list of targets, and the forces have attacked ‘dual-use' Iranian fuel sites. US President Trump stated that “if we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before," and the conflict could end easily via a deal between Iran and Israel.
On 16 June, Iran’s missiles struck Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa. In response, Israel targeted Iran’s Command Centre of the Quds Force. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said that Tehran would “pay the price and soon.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for “a total cessation of military aggression.”
On 17 June, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel. The Israeli military’s chief spokesperson stated that Israel had destroyed more than 120 missile launchers since the beginning of the crisis. President Trump said, "We are looking at better than a ceasefire," and suggested a "real end" to the nuclear dispute with Iran.
On 18 June, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran will not accept Donald Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.”
On 19 June, Iran's missiles that targeted a military site accidentally hit the Soroka medical centre, injuring 89 civilians. Prime Minister Netanyahu said that they would "exact the full price from the tyrants in Tehran." Israel's forces launched an attack on the Arak heavy water reactor and the Natanz facility.
On 20 June, Iran's Foreign Minister stated that “there is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops,” ruling out the possibility of negotiations while the attacks persist.
On 21 June, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that the head of the Palestine Corps of Iran's elite Quds Force, Mohammed Said Izadi, was eliminated in a precision strike. Said Izadi reportedly oversaw Iran's proxy militias, including Hamas, across the Middle East.
On 22 June, the US participated in joint strikes with Israel against Iran's primary nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and the heavily strengthened facility at Fordow. He stated that the goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and stop the nuclear threat caused by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror. B-2 stealth bombers carried out the operation using GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), also known as ‘bunker buster' bombs, capable of penetrating the heavily fortified facility at Fordow.
On 23 June, in a recorded video statement, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters, referred to US President Donald Trump as a 'gambler,' and stated that "you may start this war, but we will be the ones to end it.” At the emergency Security Council meeting convened on 22 June, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked that the US bombing of Iran's nuclear sites "marks a perilous turn," and called for negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that "Iran must never acquire the bomb," and France and Germany staunchly reaffirmed their positions against Iran's nuclear programme.
On 24 June, President Trump wrote on social media that a complete and total ceasefire has been agreed by Israel and Iran for 12 hours and that “the War will be considered ENDED!” declaring it “THE 12 DAY WAR.” A few hours before the announcement, Iran had launched a missile at a US air base in Qatar, which Trump described as “very weak” and “expected.” Despite Trump's ceasefire calls, Israel struck Iran's radar site in Tehran; Iran launched 14 missiles at Israel's military sites.
On 26 June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared “total victory” over Israel and warned that a future US attack on Iran would come at a “great cost." He added that US strikes on Iran “gained no achievement.” Shortly after, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu's social media post with a picture of himself and US President Trump, writing, “we will continue to work together to defeat our common enemies."
Issues at large
First, Iran’s nuclear program. Iran commenced its nuclear program in 1957 with the support of the United States under the “Atoms for Peace” initiative by President Dwight Eisenhower, which aimed to promote civil nuclear energy. It has maintained that the nuclear program was meant to facilitate energy diversification to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, medical research and as a matter of national pride. However, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have sparked concerns over nuclear proliferation, regional stability, and global security over the years. One of the primary concerns about Iran’s nuclear program is its advanced uranium enrichment activities, which have reached levels far beyond what is necessary for civilian purposes. By May 2025, Iran possessed 408.6 kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium, enough for multiple nuclear devices if further enriched to 90 per cent. As noted by the UK, France, and Germany in 2021, such high levels of uranium have “no credible civilian use” its “potentially grave military implications,” heightening fears that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.
Second, Iran, the IAEA and concerns over covert enrichment. Repeated instances of Iran restricting IAEA access to verify its nuclear operations and its non-compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have raised concerns. Following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has violated key provisions and announced that it would stop implementing “voluntary transparency measures.” In addition to breaching the 300-kilogram limit on low-enriched uranium and enriching uranium to 60 per cent, they reportedly installed thousands of new centrifuges, particularly the IR-2m, IR-4, and IR-6 models. The lack of transparency raises suspicions that Iran is hiding critical aspects of its program, including covert weapons projects like the alleged “Kavir Plan” reported by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in June 2025. On 12 June, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that Iran breached non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. The latest report found undeclared nuclear materials and activities at several sites. The agency said: “Iran's many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran... constitute non-compliance with its obligations.”
Third, concerns over a nuclear Iran, especially by Israel and the US. For Israel, Iran's possession of nuclear weapons is an existential threat to its national security. Israel claimed Iran's nuclear program reached a "point of no return" and targeted nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and key nuclear scientists to degrade and destroy Iran's capabilities. Iran views Israel as a 'Zionist enemy' and vows its destruction. This hostility and Iran's support for anti-Israel proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas add to the motive behind 'Operation Rising Lion'. In March 2025, US President Trump gave Iran a 60-day deadline to return to nuclear talks. The United States offered sanctions relief and possible normalisation of relations if Iran complied with joining new nuclear negotiations. The United States made it clear during the 12-day Israel-Iran war that it would not allow Iran to become a nuclear power.
In perspective
First, doubts over whether Iran’s nuclear program was obliterated. The Pentagon on 2 July stated that the US strikes had degraded Iran's nuclear program by up to two years, suggesting the US military operation possibly attained its objectives. However, IAEA’s Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Iran could be producing enriched uranium in a few months, raising questions about how effective the US strikes were. The discrepancy between Trump’s claims and these reports fuels doubts about the nuclear program’s true status.
Second, Iran’s response so far and what it means. Iran's parliament on 25 June approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. Iranian officials assert that nuclear capabilities remain intact.
Third, Europe’s stance. Europe has maintained a diplomatic role by trying to mediate a deal. European officials state that US strikes did not obliterate Iran's nuclear program, but have decreased the chance of reaching an agreement on the nuclear program.
About the authors
Brighty Ann Sarah and Preetha R are postgraduate students at Stella Maris College, Chennai. Aparna A Nair, and Santhiya M are students at Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University.
