Ebrahim Raisi: An Untimely Death, and What it means for Iran and its Neighbourhood

CWA # 1325

NIAS Global Politics Early Bird #01

Ebrahim Raisi: An Untimely Death, and What it means for Iran and its Neighbourhood

Rohini Reenum
21 May 2024

Photo Source: Agence France-Presse

On 19 May, Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s eighth President, considered to be a potential successor to Iran’s supreme leader, died in a helicopter crash near the Iran- Azerbaijan border. He was returning from Azerbaijan with Iran’s foreign minister after inaugurating a dam with Azerbaijan’s President. On 20 May, Iran confirmed Raisi’s death after the wreckage of the helicopter was found with no sign of life.

1. Who was Ebrahim Raisi?
Born to a clerical family in 1960, Raisi received religious education, became a cleric and participated in the 1979 Iranian Revolution. His career in the judiciary began as a prosecutor and became its head in 2019. He was seen as “a principled government critic who was tough on corruption.” He was dubbed as the “Butcher of Tehrān,” for his alleged role in the 1988 extra-judicial killings of political prisoners as part of a “death commission” after the Iran-Iraq war.
In politics, Raisi’s foray began with his nomination as the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces (JAMNA)’s presidential candidate in the 2017 election, which he lost. In 2021, he contested again as the presidential candidate of the conservatives and, with the approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, became Iran’s President. Widely considered Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s protégé, Raisi had significantly risen through the judiciary ranks and held several important positions, including a member of the Assembly of Experts (2007–24).

2. What happens next in Iran?
The Islamic Republic’s Constitution provides two sets of provisions. First, Article 131 of the Constitution provides that the first Vice President take over if the President dies in office. Accordingly, Iran’s first Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber, has already become the acting President of Iran. He is considered close to the supreme leader. Second, the Constitution directs a Council (comprised of the first Vice President, the Speaker of Parliament and the Head of the Judiciary) to conduct an election to elect a new President within 50 days. With this provision, the election date has been set for 28 June. The window for candidates to register for election will be open from 30 May to 3 June.
It will be interesting to see whose candidature the Ayatollah and the Guardian Council back this time. The candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council, a constitutional body comprising 12 members. Six of these are appointed by the supreme leader, and the other six are elected by the Iranian Parliament from among those Islamic jurists nominated by the Chief Justice, who in turn is appointed by the supreme leader. Thus, the supreme leader has a say on who gets even to contest.

3. As President, what has been Raisi’s record?
Raisi was a hardliner. At home, his rule was authoritarian; his tenure saw one of the most widespread anti-government and anti-hijab protests in Iran’s recent history and the most brutal and violent suppression of the same. According to the Guardian: “More than 19,000 protesters were jailed, and at least 500 were killed – including 60 children – during the Woman, Life, Freedom protests. The police continue to violently arrest women for refusing hijab rules.” Despite worldwide condemnation of the repression and support for the protests, his tenure saw the passing of a controversial and oppressive Hijab and Chastity Bill 2023, which increased punishment for women for instances of hijab violations.
On the external front, Raisi was a critic of the JCPOA, the nuclear deal signed between Iran and the P5+1in 2015. He bargained hard for lifting sanctions without promising anything substantial in return. His anti-US position turned vitriolic over time as the latter increasingly accused Iran of nuclear enrichment. Iran’s ballistic missile programme saw a boost during his tenure, and Iran became a key supplier of drones to Russia. Raisi focused on bolstering relationships with Russia and China. Raisi also visited Sri Lanka and Pakistan to increase Tehran’s reach in South Asia.

In the Middle East, a surprise rapprochement with Saudi Arabia had raised hopes of a stable region, which is in ruins now with the war in Gaza. Raisi’s tenure had witnessed increased support for Iran’s proxies in the region- especially Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. The war in Gaza provided an excellent opportunity for Raisi to project Iran as a protector of Islam and a regional leader (Iran’s long-term aim) by not only supporting the Palestinian cause but effectively using its proxies to target both Israel and the United States. His rule saw the first direct attack on Israeli territory by Iran, albeit one that was unsuccessful. Tehran’s use of its proxies against Israel and the United States has helped Iran to project its power across the region.

4. What has been the global reaction to Raisi’s death?
Chinese Premier, President Xi Jinping, termed his passing “a great loss to the Iranian people and the Chinese people have lost a good friend.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov condoled the deaths and highlighted that “their role in strengthening mutually beneficial Russian-Iranian cooperation and trusting partnership is invaluable,” India and Pakistan declared a day of mourning while condoling his demise. Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani and Jordan’s King Abdullah also extended their deepest condolences. President of the European Council, Charles Michel, expressed the bloc’s “sincere condolences.” The United States State Department expressed its “official condolences”, and its spokesman Matthew Miller further stated that “As Iran selects a new president, we reaffirm our support for the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights and fundamental freedoms.”
Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis have also offered their condolences to the Iranian people and the supreme leader. According to reports in Al Jazeera and The Associated Press, thousands gathered in the East Azerbaijan province’s capital, Tabriz, to mourn the Rais and others who died with him in the crash. On the other hand, according to a report in The Guardian, Iranian activists have revealed that people are in “little mood to mourn the death of the country’s president.” A Tehran-based reporter told The Guardian that the military had been brought in to target anyone celebrating the deaths, and the reported also feared potential arrests.