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Anu Maria Joseph
20 March 2026 |
Conflict Weekly Column #324, 20 March 2026
In the news
1. Sudan-Chad
On 19 March, the Chadian government said that a drone launched from Sudan killed 17 people in the Tine town of Chad. Chadian President, Mahamat Idriss Deby, has ordered the military to retaliate against any further strikes.
On the same day, according to Chad's government spokesperson, Tine has been targeted despite "various firm warnings addressed to the different belligerents in the Sudan conflict and the closure of the border." The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) denied and blamed each other for carrying out the attack.
2. Nigeria
On 17 March, the BBC reported that at least 23 people were killed and 108 were injured in a series of suicide bombings in Nigeria's city of Maiduguri in Borno state. Nigeria's military has blamed Boko Haram for the attack.
On the same day, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu condemned the attack, calling it "profoundly upsetting” and the "desperate act of the evil-minded terrorist group."
Issue at large
1. Sudan-Chad: Cross-border tensions and threat of a regional spillover of civil war
Ever since the civil war in Sudan began in April 2023, Chad has been the most affected neighbouring state. According to the UN, Chad is hosting more than one million war refugees. Chad shares a 1,400-kilometre-long porous border with western Sudan, which includes almost the entirety of the Darfur region and is currently under the control of the RSF. In February, the RSF gained control of the Sudan's side of Tine town, which is separated from Chad's Tine by a narrow stream. The latest attack came despite Chad's warnings to the two warring sides and a closure of the border in late February following a previous clash in Tine. Five Chadian soldiers were killed in the attack.
Meanwhile, the attack on border towns also took place along ethnic lines. The majority of the population in towns like Tine is non-Arab Zaghawa. However, the same ethnic group is divided by the Chad-Sudan border and has different positions on the civil war. Ethnic tensions are common in the border towns. The Sudanese Zaghawas support the SAF and have been a major target of the RSF atrocities in Darfur. Additionally, RSF pursues the rival ethnic factions in the border towns into clashes.
2. Nigeria: Increasing violence despite security partnership with the US
The city of Maiduguri is known for the origin of Boko Haram and used to be the epicentre of violence in the mid-2010s. The latest attack on the city is said to be the deadliest attack on the city in years. It also comes as Nigeria battles a recent increase in complex security crises involving several armed groups across the country. Boko Haram, the ISAWP and other armed groups, including bandits, have carried out more than 15 major attacks this year, including the 4 January attack that killed 120 people in Kwara state.
In the backdrop of an increasing security crisis, Nigeria has expanded security cooperation with the US after Trump accused the Nigerian government of failing to protect Christians. The US-Nigeria military cooperation began with the US military strikes against IS-linked groups in Nigeria's Sokoto state in December, in collaboration with the Nigerian government. In February, 100 US military troops arrived in Maiduguri to provide intelligence, military equipment and technical and operational coordination. However, so far, the US-Nigeria security partnership has been unable to control the increasing number of attacks.
What does it mean?
1. Sudan-Chad
The Sudan-Chad border town of Tine is increasingly becoming a hotspot of violence and a symbol of the regional spillover of the Sudanese civil war. The warring sides appear to be exploiting border tensions to gain the upper hand. Besides, Chad has already been accused of being involved in the civil war by supplying the UAE's weapons to the RSF. The increasing tensions highlight that Chad is highly likely to be drawn into Sudan's war.
2. Nigeria
The latest major attack on Maiduguri has increased the fear of the return of peak Boko Haram insurgency in the city, despite the US deployment. Besides Borno, Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks are frequently recorded in other states, including Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger, Katsina, Kwara and Sokoto. It implies that the increase is not only in number but also in geographic spread. While the Nigerian government welcomes US support, there is growing domestic concern about external influence on Nigeria's internal security decisions and US economic and geopolitical interests in the region
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