CWA # 2055

The World This Quarter 

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)

China’s military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Korea’s security challenges

East Asia during this quarter witnessed China becoming increasingly assertive, while the US-led alliance system defined the regional political, economic, and security landscape

Haans J Freddy 5 April 2026

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During the first quarter of 2026, East Asia was marked by cautious optimism as tensions in West Asia disrupted energy supplies and brought complex issues to the fore. The region saw China becoming increasingly assertive, while the US-led alliance system defined the regional political, economic, and security landscape. 

1. China’s military operations near Taiwan and Beijing’s invitation to the KMT leader
Tensions between China and Taiwan have risen as Beijing continues to conduct regular high-intensity operations near Taiwan, with incursions happening during Jan-Mar 2026. These actions have included crossing the Taiwan Strait Median Line and entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense detected at least 26 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels, of which 16 aircraft entered the ADIZ. In January 2026, China conducted the Justice Mission exercises, which included 130 Chinese jets, of which 90 crossed the median line. Also in January, the Chinese WZ-7 Soaring Dragon reconnaissance drone entered Taiwan's airspace. There were also incidents where J-16 aircraft flew under H-6K bombers to avoid radar detection, which were within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan’s territorial airspace. Taiwan regarded these actions as a first strike that could trigger a kinetic response. In 2025, there were significantly high numbers of Chinese sorties which totalled 5700 after the US-Taiwan arms deal with Taiwan, which included HIMARS rocket systems, missiles and drones. 

In another context, the leader of the opposition (KMT) in Taiwan has accepted an invitation from Xi Jinping, which is expected to take place before Trump’s visit to Beijing. Cheng Li Wun’s visit seems to be directed at achieving peace through dialogue and cooperation between the KMT and the CPC. This visit is significant because it occurs a month after Donald Trump's scheduled visit to Beijing. This only signals that Taiwan’s leaders are willing to walk a fine line, balancing their relations with China while relying on the US for security and the preservation of democracy in Taiwan. 

2. Japan-China tensions over Taiwan
Japan’s recent statement that it would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China has increased the bilateral tensions. China has responded assertively, calling these statements irresponsible and a violation of the One China principle. For Beijing, it is the fear of history in which China was attacked by the Japanese during the Second World War and the atrocities which were committed by the invading army. Over 20 million people were killed by the Japanese, and the Japanese have not openly regretted their actions of the past. This remains a critical factor for China. 

By naming China as its biggest strategic challenge, Japan has moved away from its traditional defensive posture, increased defence spending, and deployed long-range strike capabilities and a stronger military presence in the southwestern islands. Further, Japan has also grown closer to the US by escalating strategic competition and fostering bloc confrontation against China. 

If history is important to China, geography presents significant challenges for Japan. Tokyo controls the islands north of Taiwan; China will have to overcome this if it attacks Taiwan. Okinawa, which is heavily packed with air, naval, and missile capabilities, is also home to the American military. China is aware of these challenges and also acknowledges that its island, Yonaguni, is just about 110 kilometres from Taiwan. Though Japan’s post-war Constitution and Article 9 state that it shall never declare war and must settle international disputes without the use of force, Shinzo Abe reinterpreted this Article. He said that Japan will not declare war, but when an ally is attacked, it represents an attack on Japan and its survival, and hence it would engage in that war in order to protect its own existence. Japan has shifted from its pacifist orientation to the China threat narrative.  

3. Continuing North Korea’s missile programme and tensions with South Korea 
In February 2026, Kim Jong Un said that there was nothing to discuss with South Korea and that the country was its eternal enemy or its most hostile enemy. He ruled out any possibility of dialogue with the ROK or the US. He also said that for any talks to happen with the US, Washington has to acknowledge North Korea’s nuclear capacity. Such statements signal that it would like to engage with the US while sidelining the ROK. 

On the military front, there have been speculations that the DPRK might send its troops to Iran to fight against the US. This suggests that North Korea could be acting upon the coalition of autocracies, CRINKs (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) to limit American influence. North Korea had earlier sent military instructors to Tehran during the Iran-Iraq war. The people of North Korea, however, would like to see the government focusing more on rising food prices rather than on the development of missiles or engaging in foreign wars. 
North Korea’s most recent claim that it has successfully tested a missile for an upgraded solid fuel engine, which can target mainland America. The Korean Central News Agency reported that it has achieved 2500 kilonewtons of engine thrust, which is a significant increase from the previous 1970 kilonewtons. 

4. China and North Korea resume flight and train services
North Korea-China relations seem to be resuming, as evidenced by the resumption of flights between Beijing and Pyongyang, which were paused during COVID-19. The train services between the two were earlier suspended due to the Covid pandemic. The service operates four times a week between Beijing and Pyongyang, while daily services operate between Dandong and Pyongyang. These services are a significant step aimed at strengthening friendly relations and exchanges between the peoples of both countries. However, there is much caution and slow resumption of travel between the two countries rather than an immediate return to mass tourism.

5. Opportunities and security challenges for South Korea and Japan following the US-Iran War
The Gulf states have been central to South Korea’s energy security, which is supplied by the country’s LNG and crude oil. However, this relationship has become more diversified, with South Korean firms investing in Gulf development strategies, smart cities, infrastructure development, nuclear energy, and advanced manufacturing. Flagship projects such as South Korea’s role in developing nuclear reactors in the UAE symbolise that South Korea’s engagement with the Middle East countries has moved from merely a contractor to a long-term strategic stakeholder. 

The South Korean President acknowledged the need to shift away from reliance on energy resources from the Middle East toward renewable energy. The war in Iran has plunged the South Korean market, with the country’s leading index losing 12 per cent in March. There are significant consequences for the security of South Korea, as the Americans have withdrawn anti-aircraft missiles from US bases in South Korea, which has raised concerns that this would leave South Korea vulnerable to any possible missile attack from North Korea. With instability in the Middle East and the increasingly unreliable US, South Korea faces a need to become independent in both energy and security.  

Japan has stepped up its efforts to ensure energy security by coordinating with Indonesia. Indonesia is a resource-rich country, as Takaichi mentioned during her talks with Indonesian President Subianto. Indonesia is one of the largest exporters of coal for thermal power generation, supplying about half of the global thermal power generation coal. For Japan, these supplies will act as a substitute for LNG, which has been disrupted by the war in West Asia. In this regard, the Indonesian President has also invited Japan to participate in the country’s economy, where critical rare earth minerals industrialization and nuclear energy are areas in which cooperation could be agreed upon. 

To conclude: East Asia in the first quarter (Jan-Mar 2026)

China has accelerated its efforts to reintegrate Taiwan; Beijing has also warned that it will lead to adverse consequences for those countries that are trying to intervene in that process. Tensions have been increasing between the DPRK and the ROK, with the former testing more missiles which could travel across the Pacific and target the mainland US. East Asia has been affected by the war in West Asia, as it has disrupted energy supplies, prompting countries to seek alternatives. 

About the author

Dr Haans J Freddy is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.