CWA # 2061

The World This Quarter 

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)

Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives

While the civil wars, are moving in a dangerous direction, especially in Sudan, and traditional/non-traditional security threats are equally impacting Africa, the continent is also showing positive signs of economic recovery

S Shaji 5 April 2026

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Africa witnessed multiple events in the first quarter of 2026, ranging from popular elections to raging conflicts in several African States, as well as non-traditional threats that challenge the social life of people across the continent. At the same time, several African countries have been experiencing accelerated economic development.

1. Elections in Benin and Uganda
On the democratic front, crucial elections were held in Africa in the last three months. The parliamentary elections in Benin were held on 11 January 2026, while those in Uganda were held in March 2026. The elections in Benin assume greater significance, especially in the wake of a foiled military coup that occurred five weeks earlier. In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni secured a seventh term in office, with the official result claiming that the octogenarian leader won over 71 per cent of the vote. Bobi Wine, the rival faction leader, secured around  24.7 per cent and rejected the election results as manipulated. With the current election victory, Museveni will be in power till 2031.  In the Republic of Congo, President Denis Sassou Nguesso has been re-elected (on March 17, 2026), securing 94.82 per cent of the vote. This victory extends his 42nd year of rule in the country. 

2. Sudan’s persisting civil war
In the realm of conflicts in Africa, especially the civil wars,  Sudan is the hotspot, with around 4.5 million people migrating from the country to nearby countries, and the regions with conflict have widened in recent times. At present, it is estimated that around 400 thousand people have been killed in the bloody civil war, which began to spread across the country in 2023.  The conflict involves the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the country's official military, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Buran, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, to end the violence. Even the latest episode (in the first two weeks of March 2026) witnessed around 277 civilians being killed as the drone war has become a new norm in the country, especially in the strategically located Kordofan region in the central part of the country. SAF has claimed limited success in breaking the RSF siege of Diling and Kaduglia on January 26-27, 2026. 

In early March 2026, the RSF began establishing a parallel government in the regions they control (most of Darfur and portions of Kordofan) by signing a transitional constitution with allied partners and groups.  In the human security front, as of early 2026, the conflict in Sudan marked 1,000 days of war between the SAF and RSF, which threw up a massive humanitarian crisis, including health crises, especially the spread of epidemics, prevalence of rampant hunger and poverty and so on.

3. Continuing militancy, extremism and violence
As far as the terrorism related developments are concerned, the continued failure of the international community to support counterterrorism measures, along with leadership crises, has created a void in which extremism is like never before. For instance, in recent months, in the Sahel region, organisations including Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) , Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP), and others have already taken advantage of the vulnerability of such countries and have attacked the official militaries and the civilian population.  In addition, JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin) militants have launched continued attacks in rural areas of Burkina Faso, killing dozens and obliterating the public infrastructure. 

The extremism in the Sahel region can also heighten food prices, which, along with reductions in humanitarian funding and climate crises, undermine the livelihoods of people in this vulnerable region. In the last month (March 2026), ACLED pointed out that the month witnessed the highest number of monthly air and drone strikes that have ever occurred in the DRC. In Congo, there has been an ongoing fierce fight between the March 23 Movement (M23), a militant movement and the military (FARDC). This has led to the killing of Willy Ngoma, the spokesperson of M23, along with several other rebel leaders on February 24, 2026. In West Africa (Coastal States), violence from the Sahel is spreading toward coastal states, with risks of increased attacks in Benin and western Nigeria. It is worth noting that nearly 52.8 million people could face acute food insecurity in 2026 in the region. 

4. New peace initiatives
Several peace initiatives have emerged in recent times; for instance, regional organisations such as the African Union (AU) are actively working to sustain ceasefire agreements in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) against the M23 militia and to mediate tensions in the Great Lakes region. The peace-building efforts in Sudan and the South Sudan peace agreements through UNMIS (UN Mission in South Sudan).AU is strengthening the AU's peacekeeping capabilities, with an emphasis on African soldiers managing African security challenges. Similarly, the community-based efforts are focusing on investing in local mediation training to address land/water disputes and prevent ethno-religious violence. The UN Peacebuilding Commission is integrating Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) initiatives and youth involvement, prioritising their roles in DDR (Disarmament, Demobilisation, and Reintegration) transitions. 

5. Some good news on the economy
On the economic front, certain positive developments are noticed; based on a few reports from early 2026, Africa has risen as a key player in economic growth, with projected average GDP growth accelerating to around 4.3 to 4.4 per cent in 2026, driven by healthy macroeconomic indicators, especially the stabilisation of commodity prices. However, this growth faces challenges of high debt-servicing costs, food inflation, and geopolitical unpredictability. The front-runners in the economic recovery on the continent include South Sudan (due to oil production), Guinea (mining), Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Benin. The IMF predicts that some of the fastest-growing economies in 2026 will emerge from Africa. To conclude: Africa in Jan-Mar 2026
There is a myriad of trends in Africa as one examines the key developments in the first quarter of 2026. First, the conflicts, especially civil wars, are moving in a dangerous direction, especially in countries like Sudan. Second, both traditional and non-traditional security threats are equally impacting Africa in contemporary times. Third, Africa is showing positive signs of macroeconomic growth in several countries. In a nutshell, Africa in recent times has thrown up divergent trends which can be seen as a precursor to the developments in the rest of the year. 

About the author

Dr S Shaji is an Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad