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Ramya B
5 April 2026 |
In the first quarter of 2026, Russia met sanctions and isolation with a strategy of defiance and determination. State media have amplified the Russian spirit of resilience and national pride even as the dissenting voices are being suppressed. The past three months have shown Russia’s vulnerabilities while showcasing its valiant efforts to manage uncertainty. Yet despite these strains, Russia remains central to the global narrative, with actions that resonate far beyond its borders.
1. Getting ready for State Duma elections in September 2026
Russia, in preparation for the State Duma elections scheduled for September 2026, has intensified administrative and political pressure on all its opposition parties, especially the Yabloko party, which received 1.21 per cent of the vote in the 2021 elections by promising ‘peace and freedom’. The top five candidates of the Ruling party, United Russia, are proponents of the Kremlin’s militarised agenda. Vladimir Putin held a closed meeting with large business houses in March, during which the entrepreneurs announced ‘voluntary’ financial contributions to the war against Ukraine, thereby demonstrating elite loyalty to his administration. This continues the Putin system of informal arrangements since his return to the presidency in 2012. Businesses already affected by sanctions and isolated understood that their chances of diversifying assets into other areas had been shut down after the West Asia conflicts.
2. President Putin further asserts control over domestic institutions
The Kremlin has tightened its grip on domestic institutions in 2026 to ensure compliance and absolute allegiance. Indications of a digital iron curtain are evident, with blockades of private VPNs, an official push to adopt state-backed messaging apps, and concrete plans to curb popular messaging apps like Telegram. Mobile internet blackouts were reported throughout Russia this year, including in Moscow and St. Petersburg in March. These blackouts also align with legal amendments that centralise the management of the internet, providing full control over the public communication infrastructure.
3. Efforts towards an economic turnaround
The Russian government’s annual report to the State Duma, presented on 25th February, revealed a growing deficit and a fall in the rouble price of Russian oil. Accumulated reserves from the National Wealth Fund stood at 1.8 per cent of GDP. However, developments around Iran are pushing global oil prices upward, which may provide some immediate relief to the Russian economy. If the military conflicts persist for a few more months, the Russian Budget estimates will improve. The price of oil, and the Urals in particular, has risen to USD 123 a barrel, bringing in more than $10 billion per month. A 30-day waiver issued by the US is enabling countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products. Russia has sought to deepen trade ties with non-Western nations of Asia and the Middle East.
4. Assertive military posture on Ukraine
Russia advanced into Ukraine in January 2026, continuing pressure across multiple fronts with heavy use of drones and artillery strikes. By March, however, the Russian offensive had slowed to its lowest level. At the same time, Moscow’s assertive military posturing has been bolstered by strains in transatlantic relations and the possibility of the US withdrawing from its security commitments to Europe. Whether this posture will culminate in Russia attacking a neighbour to test NATO’s Article 5 guarantee or even a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, remains a matter of serious concern. When Finland confirmed its plan of lifting its longstanding ban on hosting nuclear weapons for NATO’s eastern flank in March 2026, Russia stated that this move would be a monumental mistake. The Russian strategic missile forces have conducted drills in Siberia involving the camouflaged movement of Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles. Large-scale war exercises, including the use of camouflage to disguise ground-based missile movements, were held to send signals to the West and NATO adversaries over the war in Ukraine.
5. Global diplomatic manoeuvring on a dual track
Moscow has been pursuing a twin strategy of confrontation with the West and engagement with alternative partners. Moscow appears intent on undermining confidence in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, seeking to peel off vulnerable states through separate diplomatic accommodations aligned with Putin’s worldview. At the same time, Russia has expanded its influence in forums such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. It announced support for India’s efforts to build consensus among BRICS members and pledged to honour existing oil contracts, positioning itself as a reliable partner in coping with the energy crisis. Russia is also positioning itself as a potential superpower in the digital and technological arena, with substantial investments in BRICS-focused initiatives.
On the geopolitical front, Moscow condemned US and Israeli attacks as violations of international law and sovereignty. Economically, it has sustained energy and arms trade with Iran, reinforcing resilience against Western sanctions. Russian advanced weaponry, intelligence and cyber units have further enabled Iran to launch precise missile strikes, including the attack on the US bases in Ebril in March 2026.
To conclude: Russia in the first quarter (Jan-Mar 2026)
The first quarter underscored Russia’s determination to withstand sanctions and isolation through a blend of domestic consolidation, economic recalibration, assertive military signalling, and global diplomatic manoeuvring. The Kremlin tightened its grip over state institutions, major businesses and the media. Military exercises and nuclear rhetoric have amplified Moscow’s posture, even as its offensive in Ukraine slowed to its lowest level. At the international level, during the quarter, Russia pursued a dual diplomatic track- confronting the West while deepening ties with alternative partners in Asia and the Middle East. These dynamics highlight the interplay of weakness and resilience within Russia, affirming its continued role in the turbulent geopolitics of 2026
