CW Note

CWA # 2213
CW Note
End of pause, Return of hostilities and Expanding conflict geography

Conflict Weekly #342, 30 July 2026, Vol 7, No. 29

Brighty Ann Sarah
30 July 2026
Photo Source:

In the news
On 24 July, President Trump stated that Washington was temporarily pausing its military strikes on Tehran to revive negotiations, after thirteen consecutive days of attack. Iranian officials responded that Tehran will halt its attack for only as long as the US holds off, and that Iran remains in a position of “attack for attack.”

On the same day, President Trump stated that President Xi Jinping had assured China would not enable Tehran “Under any circumstances, give or sell weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran — And that statement included Chinese Companies.” He warned that such involvement from Beijing and Moscow “would be very bad for them.”

On 26 July, Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen said they had targeted the East-West Pipeline carrying oil to Saudi Arabia's main Red Sea port of Yanbu in retaliation for Saudi drone incursions.

On 29 July, the US CENTCOM stated that it intercepted multiple ballistic missiles launched by Iran in “an attempted surprise attack.” On the same day, the US and Saudi Arabia launched strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq citing drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities.

Separately, Reuters, in an exclusive, reported that Iran is set to purchase 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defence missile launchers, amounting to USD 60-70 billion. The purchase also includes between 300 and 400 man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles. Reports also suggested that China held direct talks with the Houthis to allow safe transit of its tankers through the southern Red Sea, amid the Houthi embargo on exports from Saudi Arabia. 

Issues at large
1. End of truce and expanding geography of the conflict
The temporary pause has ended with Iran’s strikes against the US and persisting attacks unfolding across various fronts in the war. The conflict-geography has markedly expanded with new fronts opening in Yemen and Iraq. In Yemen, Iran-backed Houthi forces have sharply escalated the confrontation with Saudi Arabia, and established a second maritime front in the Red Sea, drawing Riyadh into active combat. Simultaneously, Iran-backed militias operating from Iraqi territory have turned Iraq into an active launch platform, conducting drone attacks directed by the IRGC against Saudi oil sites.

2. Targeting Saudi Arabia and opening new fronts
Saudi Arabia has emerged as Iran’s key target, notably against the backdrop of the recent US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement. Iran is leveraging the vast network of proxy groups it has cultivated over the decades as a tool of escalation. Opening new fronts in Yemen and Iraq has widened the scope of what US or and regional allies have to confront alongside direct confrontations with Iran. The Iran-backed militias in Iraq have turned Baghdad into an operational base for Tehran’s attacks. These militias form a key pillar of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” largely organized under the banner of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) or Hashd al-Shaabi, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.  Forming a powerful network of predominantly Shiite paramilitary groups, they emerged during the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the fight against ISIS after 2014 and were later formally integrated into Iraq’s security apparatus while retaining strong operational, financial and ideological ties to Iran’s IRGC and its Quds Force.

3. The emerging China factor and the end of Beijing's non-interference
For months, Beijing had limited its involvement in the war largely to protecting its own energy and shipping interests, publicly calling for de-escalation, safeguarding the flow of oil and avoiding direct military entanglement. However, that posture has markedly eroded with its supply of ammunition to Iran to help rebuild its short-range defences depleted by US and Israeli strikes, effectively tilting Beijing toward Tehran and shedding the appearance of non-interference. The events are a stark contradiction to the assurances against “enabling” Tehran that Trump claimed to have secured. Simultaneously, the direct talks with the Houthis to secure safe passage for Chinese tankers through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait underscore Beijing’s proximity to Iran and its proxy networks.  

In perspective
Iran has remained unyielding to Washington’s war of attrition, weaponizing the repeated cycles of aggression to nudge negotiations in its favour. On the contrary, Tehran has only amplified its offensive, leveraging regional proxies against Washington’s close allies, raising the scope and stakes of the conflict.

On the other hand, the US has been unable to curb Tehran effectively, even failing to prevent the expanding war that has dragged Saudi Arabia into direct conflict. It has neither been able to prevent the attacks on Riyadh, nor mitigate the threat posed by the Houthi’s on Iran’s behalf.

For China, the military assistance and engagement with Iran’s proxies goes beyond securing its economic interest. Beijing finds it an opportunity to counter US strategic interests that seek to wear down Iran militarily to secure a decisive win. It introduces a new dimension of US-China rivalry into the conflict and risk further complicating an already volatile crisis.

About the author

Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Bengaluru


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Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta