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NIAS Global Politics Team
29 October 2026 |
CW Explainer
Africa's recurring Ebola problem:
Why the DRC's latest outbreak has become so severe? And why containing it remains a challenge?
Akshath Kaimal
Africa is facing another Ebola epidemic. The Ebola virus was first identified in the DRC in 1976, and the country has witnessed 17 outbreaks ever since. Outbreaks have also been reported in Uganda, Gabon, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, reflecting the virus’s ability to easily spill over from animal hosts to human populations across borders.
The scale of past outbreaks vary considerably. Most outbreaks have generally been geographically concentrated around the epicenter, but the 2014-2016 West African epidemic is the worst on record, with over 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths, according to the U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The current outbreak was declared on 15 May and is caused by the rare Bundibugyo strain, for which no licensed vaccine or treatment exists. According to the WHO, as of 06 October, the DRC had recorded 4,205 deaths from 8,728 confirmed cases, representing a 48 per cent case fatality rate (CFR). Caused by the rare Bundibugyo virus, the outbreak highlights Africa’s recurring struggle with Ebola. In the DRC, armed conflict, delayed detection, healthcare shortages, and limited medical countermeasures have made containing the virus particularly difficult.
1. Why is Ebola a recurring challenge for Africa?
The geography of the continent plays a role, with dense tropical forests and increased human-wildlife contact raising risks for zoonotic spillovers. Africa has been facing consequences of delayed detection, limited treatment access, and weak coordination between states. The current outbreaks mirror the same fault lines. Ebola is not exclusive to Africa, but the largest outbreaks have occurred there. In regions historically affected by the virus, conflict, displacement, cross-border movement, and limited healthcare access have complicated containment. This is why the current outbreak in the DRC is important.
2. Why is the outbreak in the DRC particularly severe?
Authorities say transmission has spread across 63 health zones in seven provinces, with the eastern provinces particularly affected. The outbreak’s severity reflects the dual realities of limited medical access and conditions on the ground. First, delayed detection and insufficient contact tracing have led to the WHO warning that 80-85 per cent of new cases are originating from unknown transmission chains and are being detected outside established surveillance networks. Second, healthcare worker strikes and community resistance to treatment have complicated response efforts. According to Médecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), 75 per cent of Ebola deaths are community deaths that are happening outside treatment centers, highlighting limited access and resistance. And third, armed conflict, displacement, and limited humanitarian inflow, particularly in the rebel-held eastern provinces of North and South Kivu, have further disrupted essential services and delayed detection.
3. What have been the domestic and international responses so far?
The DRC government, WHO, and humanitarian organisations have led the response. Their efforts have strengthened surveillance, testing, treatment facilities, and contact tracing. Neighbouring Uganda and Kenya have also stepped up preparedness due to cross-border transmission. On the treatment front, research efforts are addressing the shortage of medical countermeasures through Bundibugyo-specific vaccines and antivirals. The government and WHO have also begun administering the Ervebo vaccine to frontline workers, although its efficacy against the Bundibugyo strain is still unknown. However, the success of countermeasures also depends on the environment in which they are administered. Funding shortages, limited treatment capacity, and healthcare worker strikes over unpaid wages and insufficient protective equipment have disrupted services. Furthermore, historical grievances, misinformation, and government mistrust have added another dynamic to the outbreak response. This is particularly evident during burials, as Ebola remains highly infectious after death while cultural practices often involve close contact with the deceased. Families may consequently conceal symptomatic individuals or resist safe burial procedures, hindering contact tracing and allowing transmission chains to remain undetected.
4. What are the major challenges?
First, insecurity, healthcare worker shortages, and community mistrust remain major obstacles to the response. The Associated Press reported that the burning of an Ebola-related facility at the Kigonze displacement camp near Bunia disrupted medical services and forced 19,000 displaced people to flee, further straining the healthcare system. Second, humanitarian access remains hindered, especially in rebel-held areas in the east, where authorities are playing down the outbreak. Dedicated humanitarian corridors will not only provide lifesaving aid to those in need, but they will also help build community trust in health professionals. Working with local leaders, survivors, and civil society organisations will also help counter misinformation and promote safe burial practices that respect cultural sensitivities. Third, while treatments are being developed, treatment access also needs to be expanded. Investment in surveillance, treatment, and the broader healthcare system can help close the gap in medical preparedness. Containing Ebola depends not only on scientific advances, but also on reliable health services, community cooperation, and sustained international assistance.
Recurring Ebola outbreaks in the DRC and Africa as a whole raise broader questions on epidemic responses, complicating factors and community involvement. The DRC’s experience shows that containing outbreaks requires long-term investment in preparedness, rather than repeated cycles of crisis management. Without this shift, each new outbreak risks exposing the same vulnerabilities and exacting another heavy human cost.
Akshath Kaimal is a postgraduate in International Studies and International Humanitarian Action. He is currently a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa
CW Review
Global Hunger Index Report 2026:
Perpetuation of Food Insecurity and Uneven Progress
Advik Sunanda Mohan
On 14 October, the Global Hunger Index (GHI) Report was released. The report was jointly published by German private aid agency Welthungerhilfe, the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict at Ruhr University Bochum and Swiss organization Helvetas. The GHI report calculates the total levels of hunger across countries, at global, national and regional levels. Additionally, it looks into the broader and systemic reasons behind the perpetuation of global hunger, such as geopolitical tensions and continuing conflicts, climate change and economic shocks. The theme of “No Security Without Food Security” embodies this well. The report’s stated objective is to help draw greater awareness to the regions of the world particularly suffering from food insecurity.
The GHI score of every country in the report was calculated using four indicators; namely undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting and child mortality. These indicators look at the availability of food for the broader population, as well as looking specifically at children who lack access to nutrition.
Following are major takeaways from the report:
1. Increase in global hunger levels after years of decline
The global score of the GIH showed the current score of global hunger to be 18.1 higher than 17.6 recorded in 2018. Additionally. 32 countries saw an increase in hunger levels, compared to 2018. More worryingly, 8 countries including Yemen, the DRC, Somalia and Sudan face what is described as alarming levels of hunger. The indicators of child wasting and stunting, alongside undernourishment compared to 2018 saw an increase. An estimated 645 million people were undernourished, as of 2025 according to the report.
2. Sub- Saharan Africa, South Asia and West Asia have the highest levels of food insecurity
South of the Sahara in Africa has the world’s highest level of hunger, with a GHI score of 27.5. This score reflects a decline from the previous point in 2018. The region records the highest global rates of child stunting, undernourishment and child mortality, alongside the second highest rate of wasting. Seven countries are classified as alarming, indicating a significantly high level of food insecurity. South Asia has the second highest GHI score of 23.5.
Afghanistan and Pakistan record the highest level of insecurity with 28.6 and 25.5 respectively. The matter for worry is that both countries have worsened since 2018, with Afghanistan in particular being classified as a country of high concern. In the rest of the region, India and Bangladesh have seen slowdowns in their progress. On the other hand, Nepal succeeded in reducing its rate from 37.0 in 2000 to 14.5 in 2026. The investments in nutrition-specific sectors, poverty reduction, maternal care, usage of large-scale volunteers in community health projects are cited as reasons for the Nepali success.
West Asia has seen an increase, with escalating conflict blamed for the same. Yemen remains in the alarming category with nearly one in two children stunted. Meanwhile, Gaza has witnessed one of the sharpest deteriorations with over 1.2 million people or 59 per cent of the population in a state of limited access to food. Lebanon has also dealt with greater food insecurity, as the GHI score declined from 7.2 to 9.4 with undernourishment at 11 per cent. 1.24 million people, amounting to over 20 per cent of the population were estimated to be in a crisis situation of food insecurity.
3. Latin America, East and Southeast Asia make progress amidst outliers
At present, Latin America has a GHI score of 7.4, well below 13.2 in 2000. The regions cited for the success include poverty reduction and healthcare expansion, economic growth and conditional cash transfer programmes in places like Brazil. However, there remains a distinct divide with the Caribbean which has an undernourishment rate of 16.6 per cent compared to 4.0 per cent for Latin America. The GHI score in East and Southeast Asia is 8.1, although it is worth noting that this figure is heavily influenced by the significant population and low GHI score of China. Five countries, including North Korea and Papua New Guinea remain in the serious category, with little progress made in tackling hunger. The overall trajectory of the region is one of improvement. Countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia have benefitted from growing wealth and access to services to make improvements.
4. Armed conflicts have a correlation with hunger risks
The report cited the growth of conflicts as a key reason behind the continuing food insecurity. At least 147.4 million people who were affected by high levels of acute food insecurity lived in conflict-ridden areas across 19 countries and territories. Additionally, the Uppsala Conflict Data program recorded 65 state-based armed conflicts in 2025, the highest number since 1948. Some of the countries worst affected by food insecurity such as Somalia, Sudan and the DRC are facing food crises linked with continuing wars. Additionally, famine was reported across two areas namely Sudan and parts of the Gaza strip, for the first time.
5. Climate change exacerbates food insecurity
The rise in extreme climate events has played a role in prolonging the existing food crises. The report cited the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data to inform that extreme weather was responsible for acute food insecurity in 16 countries and territories, with 87.5 million people affected. One region that has been particularly affected by this is Africa. For instance, El Niño-related droughts increased food insecurity in countries in Southern Africa like Malawi and Zimbabwe. Similarly, food availability in Somalia was deeply affected by recurring droughts and floods. Pakistan also witnessed heavy flash floods last year that destroyed infrastructure and affected over 6 million people, setting back its progress in combating child mortality and undernourishment. Another area where the constraints of climate events upon tackling food insecurity in a lasting manner can be seen are the Pacific Island states.
6. Ukraine and Iran wars affect the food availability
Many countries are still recovering from the impact of the Covid pandemic, which hampered economic growth and food availability. The Ukraine war also hampered food imports. However, things have been compounded by the US-Iran war, which began in February this year. The war caused a sharp decline in fertilizer imports and food exports between West Asia and Africa. Moreover, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increased shipping times, impacting delivery of humanitarian aid to places like Sudan. The example of Nigeria shows the multifold impact of these crises. The country entered a recession during the Covid pandemic and has continued to face economic troubles. This has increased food insecurity as well.
Advik Sunanda Mohan is a postgraduate student at Sciences Po's Paris School of International Affairs and a Research Intern with the Global Politics platform at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) in Bengaluru.
Conflict Weekly Newsmakers
Ethiopia’s Oromia massacre | Escalating Ebola outbreak | Machado’s return to Venezuela | Jordan’s airstrike on Syria
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Sreemaya Nair, and Urja R Kudalkar
Ethiopia’s Oromia massacre:
Church says 60 Orthodox Christians killed in two attacks as authorities blame rebel alliance
On 28 October, International Christian Concern and other major sources reported that the Orthodox Tewahedo Church’s Holy Synod said at least 60 Orthodox Christians were killed in two attacks in the Arsi zone of Oromia region. According to the church, 14 people were killed in Merti district on 20 October and 46 in Shirka district on 24 October. More than 20 others were seriously injured, and about 20 homes were burned. Witnesses told Vatican News the assailants went house to house, killing residents with gunfire and knives, with children and elderly people among the dead. Responsibility is disputed. Oromia’s regional government blamed a rebel alliance that includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Fano militias, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which Addis Ababa classifies as a terrorist organisation. The alliance, formed in September, aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. A source linked to it blamed regional authorities, according to International Christian Concern. The church urged authorities to protect civilians, publicly condemn the killings, and bring those responsible to justice. Oromia, the country’s largest region, has seen conflict between government forces and the OLA since 2018.
Escalating Ebola outbreak:
Ebola outbreak surpasses 10,000 cases as containment efforts face setbacks
On 29 October, The Guardian and other major news reported that the Ebola outbreak caused by the Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) had surpassed 10,000 confirmed cases, with nearly 5,000 deaths. The outbreak has become the largest and deadliest recorded in the DRC and the second-largest globally. According to China Daily, more than 80 per cent of new cases were detected among people not previously identified as contacts, highlighting gaps in surveillance and contact tracing. Although weekly cases have stabilised at approximately 400 to 500, experts warned that the outbreak remains uncontrolled. Cases have also been reported in other countries, including Kenya and Nigeria, while France recorded an imported case. Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Director-General Jean Kaseya warned that the outbreak could spread beyond Africa, including to the United Kingdom, and called for stronger international preparedness and cross-border coordination. The response faces additional challenges from armed conflict, community mistrust, misinformation, shortages of protective equipment and funding gaps. Meanwhile, a Phase Two and Three clinical trial has begun in eastern DRC to assess vaccine candidates against the Bundibugyo strain. The outbreak has also severely affected children, with more than 2,700 confirmed cases among those aged 17 and younger, according to China Daily. The developments highlight the importance of strengthening surveillance, community engagement and access to treatment to interrupt transmission.
Machado returns to Venezuela:
Opposition leader's homecoming raises pressure for a democratic transition and elections
On 26 October, Reuters reported that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returned home on 25 October after nearly 10 months in exile, entering from Colombia and greeted by tens of thousands of supporters. The Trump administration, which had blocked at least seven earlier attempts, chose not to intervene this time. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said her safe return was the direct result of US supported reconciliation talks that had freed hundreds of political prisoners. Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, was barred from the 2024 election and left the country after a crackdown. The US military captured Nicolás Maduro in January, and Delcy Rodríguez became interim leader. Machado has called for elections by July and criticised a US oil deal with Venezuela, while still facing charges including treason. Rodríguez called her return a "show". The Norwegian Nobel Committee said it hoped her return would strengthen the democratic opposition and its peaceful struggle. A senior State Department official said a new National Electoral Council would be set up shortly after the year ends, after which Rodríguez would declare a presidential vacancy, starting a six month period for new elections, with a fourth round of talks scheduled for mid-November.
Jordan’s airstrikes on Syria:
Counterterrorism operation sparks concern over civilian casualties and sovereignty
On 28 October, Reuters reported that Syria and Jordan agreed to establish a joint security committee to investigate Jordan’s airstrikes in southern Syria. The strikes targeted suspected Islamic State (IS) sites on 26 October following a church attack in Jordan’s Karak governorate that killed nine people and injured 34. IS claimed responsibility for the attack. Jordan said its operation was based on intelligence about imminent threats and killed more than 20 IS militants. However, Syrian authorities reported seven civilian deaths, including three children, in the Daraa and Suwayda provinces. Jordan’s Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, expressed regret over the civilian casualties and reaffirmed respect for Syria’s sovereignty. The strikes exposed differences between the two governments over military coordination. Jordan maintained that the operation had been coordinated with Damascus, while Syrian authorities said they had received no prior notification and condemned the strikes as a violation of Syrian territory. The Nassib border crossing, temporarily closed following the attacks, reopened on 28 October, restoring passenger and commercial traffic. The joint committee will examine the circumstances and consequences of the strikes and strengthen intelligence-sharing and security coordination. The developments highlight the challenge of addressing cross-border militant threats while protecting civilians and maintaining bilateral relations.
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, and Urja R Kudalkar are postgraduate students at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences. They are currently Research interns at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.
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