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Advik Sunanda Mohan
5 November 2026 |
In the news
On 23 October, the White House issued a statement that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop all military operations in the Russian-controlled Oleshky – a Ukrainian city, from 27 October. A humanitarian ceasefire for six days was agreed upon to facilitate the delivery of aid and preparations for evacuation of civilians. According to reports, the US first lady, Melania Trump, and her team had helped broker the ceasefire, in coordination with Russian and Ukrainian leadership.
On 27 October, Russia and Ukraine began observing the ceasefire in Oleshky. On 29 October, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of being responsible for a humanitarian catastrophe.
On 01 November, residents from Oleshky entered the rest of Ukraine in an evacuation operation. The residents were flown from Russian-occupied territory into Belarus, before taking a bus to Ukraine. Zelenskyy informed that the evacuated residents would receive all the aid.
On 02 November, the ceasefire officially came to an end. Ukraine accused Russia of having used the ceasefire period to fortify its military positions and get new ammunition supplies.
On 03 November, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed that the humanitarian ceasefire in Oleshky be replicated for brokering other ceasefires to protect energy and shipping infrastructure. He also stated that any lasting peace agreement required European support.
Issues at large
1. The humanitarian situation in Oleshky
The Ukrainian town has been under Russian occupation, since the beginning of the invasion. It has been facing a shortage of food supplies, and running out of medical supplies. Aid agencies stated that most of the 2,000 residents left in the town were facing the risk of starvation. Residents had stated ambulances operating was difficult, due to the risk of Russian drone attacks. Following are major reasons for the continuing situation in Oleshky. The mining of nearby roads by Russian and Ukrainian FPV drones has facilitated the creation of a “kill zone” wherein civilians and vehicles get targeted by attacks. Additionally, the destruction of the neighbouring Kakhovka Dam in 2023 caused massive flooding of infrastructure in Oleshky, and destroyed the power grid, cutting off energy supplies. Finally, the blockade by Russian forces in May 2026, cut off all food and medical shipments into Oleshky.
2. The continued failures and violations of ceasefires in Ukraine
There have been several attempts to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine before, which soon collapsed. But there has been a failure of any ceasefire to hold for a lengthy period of time. For instance, in 2022, the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross organized "green corridors," or humanitarian windows, wherein civilians could be evacuated safely from cities like Mariupol at the risk of attacks. However, these “green corridors” did not entirely work since Ukraine accused Russia of violating them with attacks on evacuation routes and civilian infrastructure. Another similar ceasefire was organized in April this year to stop all military operations and strikes to mark the occasion of Orthodox Easter. This ceasefire was also beset with multiple accusations of violations.
In perspective
The Oleshky ceasefire succeeded in meeting its stated objective of evacuating the civilians from the town and alleviating the humanitarian situation. However, it remains to be seen if the ceasefire can help facilitate broader talks between the two sides. There exist certain red lines, such as Russia’s territorial demands in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and Kyiv’s wish for security guarantees. Additionally, there were several attacks on civilians and infrastructure reported after the conclusion of the Oleshky ceasefire. However, humanitarian truces similar to Oleshky for safeguarding civilians could be brokered on a localized scale.
The larger question is whether narrow ceasefires will result in peace. The forthcoming trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine scheduled for later this month become important in this context. Zelenskyy has already outlined a few pre-conditions for Kyiv before the talks. The most important one for the president is that any deal that negotiates an end to the war must ensure robust security guarantees for Ukraine. Zelenskyy has stated there must be no enforced limits on the size of the Ukrainian security forces, or to forcefully compel them to remain neutral. The president has also indicated a willingness to be involved with NATO, suggesting that member states could agree to cover Ukraine under Article 5 if Kyiv could not join the alliance. Other preconditions include an end to attacks on energy infrastructure, and maritime safety guarantees. This indicates a firm stance to safeguard its security from the Ukrainian perspective.
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