Conflict Weekly #01

Conflict Weekly #01
Taliban's ceasefire offer, Quetta Suicide attack, Supreme court verdict on J&K, the Brus Agreement in Tripura, Nile River Agreement, Tehran Protests, Syrians meet in Berlin, and the Honduran Caravans in Mexico

IPRI Team
20 January 2020
Photo Source: Al Jazeera

Conflict Weekly, 20 January 2020, Vol 1, No.1

Abigail Miriam Fernandez, Lakshmi V Menon, Amal Anzari, Rini Elizabeth Babu, Raakhavee Ramesh and Vaishali Handique

South Asia
Afghanistan: Taliban's Proposal to Reduce Violence 

In the news 
The Taliban presented the US special representative for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, with a proposal to reduce violence and restart long-stalled peace talks when negotiators met in Doha, Qatar. A Taliban official was reported saying that "the proposal of reduction in violence on the negotiating table was in response to US demands." The new direction in the peace talks was confirmed by a Pakistani Foreign Ministry official who was affirmative that the proposal was handed over to Zalmay Khalilzad. "We have agreed to scale down military operations in days leading up to the signing of the peace agreement with the United States," Taliban chief spokesman in Doha, Suhail Shaheen said. "The purpose (of scaling down) is to provide a safe environment to foreign forces to withdraw from Afghanistan," he further said. 

American and Taliban negotiations that have been restarted for the peace negotiations have now started on a positive note. The talks promised progress, with the Taliban willing to show their readiness to accept the demand for reduction in violence. Associated Press reported that Taliban officials gave the US envoy in the talks "a document outlining their offer for a temporary cease-fire in Afghanistan that would last between seven and ten days." Previously, the US demand for reduction in violence had held up the resumption of formal peace talks for months. 

Issues at large 
The fundamental objective of the US efforts in Afghanistan is "preventing any further attacks on the United States by terrorists enjoying haven or support in Afghanistan." 

When the US began official peace talks with the Afghan Taliban for the first time in Doha, Qatar in February 2019, there was great optimism that a new chapter in the 18-year conflict between the Taliban, the Afghan government, and NATO forces might be beginning. Both the US and the Taliban were just days away from signing a peace deal in September 2019 when the nearly year-long diplomatic effort was called off by President Trump in a surprise tweet. This was based on the Taliban attack that killed a US service member. 

Ever since, the US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, has been trying to restart negotiations, first by facilitating a prisoner exchange and now by demanding a reduction in violence. Talks resumed in November 2019 after an unannounced visit by Trump to Afghanistan on Thanksgiving. But they were paused in December after a Taliban attack on a highly fortified US base. 

In perspective 
A peace deal with the Taliban would pave the way not only for Afghanistan's political order, but also international involvement, and the regional security architecture. It would also pave the way for one of the key campaign promises that President Trump wants to keep, the withdrawal of thousands of US troops from Afghanistan. But reducing the troop level will also increase pressure on the Afghan government's forces, which continue to struggle to carry out operations without close US support. 

The Taliban's readiness to reduce violence can lead to a deal that includes a gradual withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in return for a Taliban pledge that Afghan soil will not be used by international terrorist groups to launch attacks against the US and its allies. The deal can also lead to talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, who has been so far excluded in the talks as well as other political factions to negotiate future power-sharing. If the American side decides to accept the offer, it would amount to the most significant development in the year-long negotiations. 
 

Pakistan: Suicide attack in a Quetta mosque claims 15 lives 
In the news
On 10 January, a suicide bomber carried out an attack in Quetta at a mosque during the prayers that killed fifteen people and twenty more were seriously injured. The attack was the second such incident of terrorism in the week. The previous attack was in a market area in Quetta which killed two people and more than fourteen were wounded.

Issues at large
The bomb attack killed an Imam and the Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Amanullah along with thirteen other civilians who assembled for the evening prayer. Three days ago, another bomb exploded targeting the security personnel vehicle in a market area in Quetta. In May and August 2019, the two bomb blasts in Quetta had taken the lives of six civilians, leaving many others injured. 

Initial reports stated that the slain officer was the target of the latest attack. According to earlier reports, in December, unidentified gunmen killed the DSP's son in Quetta and that could have been the reason behind such an assumption in the initial stage of the mosque attack. However, later the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the bombing and their target was Afghan Taliban.

Despite serious crackdown on terror elements in various other parts of Pakistan, Quetta has been a constant victim of various deadly attacks. Quetta, bordering Iran and Afghanistan is the capital of the mineral-rich province, Balochistan. The province is home to a secessionist group, the Balochistan Liberation Army, who have waged low-level insurgencies for years. 

The secessionists' demands include more autonomy and a greater share in the region's natural resources. The region also has a strong presence of Islamist militant groups which include the Afghan Taliban and the Islamic State. The Taliban and the IS have battled each other for control of territory in Afghanistan, and the recent attack at a mosque was carried out by the IS suicide bomber to target an Afghan Taliban Seminary as per their claims. The Taliban, however, has denied the presence of any of its members at the mosque during the explosion. These secessionist and militant elements have made Quetta the site of terror acts and the mosque attack is just the latest among them. 

In perspective
Balochistan is important for its rich natural resources and also is key to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of Beijing's Belt Road Initiative (BRI). 
CPEC connects China's largest province, Xinjiang with Pakistan's Gwadar port in Balochistan. The frequent attacks in its capital and the instability in Balochistan due to the secessionist and radical groups are raising serious security concerns over the projects. 

 

India: Supreme Court declares the Internet as a fundamental right 
In the news
On 15 January 2020, UNSC held a private meeting with the 15 member body on the Kashmir subject after Pakistan's ally China pressed to discuss the political arrests and ongoing restrictions on the internet access in an international platform.

A three-judge bench of the Supreme Court ruled on 5 January, that the right to internet access as a 'fundamental right' under article 19 was subjected to reasonable restrictions.

The Supreme Court has directed the Jammu and Kashmir administration to review all orders within a week which enforces limitations in the Union Territory since the abrogation of Article 370 by the federal government in August 2019 and to bring back internet facilities for e-banking, trade, government websites, and hospital services. It has also said, any order passed to limit internet services will be subjected to judicial review. 

The Supreme Court also said that the repetitive imposition of Section 144 CrPC is an 'abuse of power' which was used to subdue legitimate expression and also all orders from this time will be published in the public domain which will offer civic a provision for a legal challenge.

This move by China comes after 16 envoys majorly from Latin American, and African nations visited Kashmir to get a grip of the ground situation succeeding the revocation of Article 370 in the Union Territory. 

Issues at large
On 5 August 2019, the federal government scrapped Article 370 and 35A which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir. The Parliament passed the bill which proposed the division of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories.

Under article 370 and 35A, special status was promised during the accession of J&K with India, when the princely states were offered with the choice of joining either Pakistan or India after independence in 1947. The special status allowed the J&K to exercise control over the laws in all matters, excluding finance, defence, foreign affairs, and communication. They had a separate constitution and flag, and non-Kashmiris were denied property rights.

Besides scrapping Article 370 and 35A, India also pushed troops to the region, imposed a curfew, and cut off telecommunications and internet services to address security issues. Political leaders were placed under arrest. The administration justified its action that it prevented terrorism, the spread of extremist ideologies and the influence of infiltrators on the border. 

While a section within J&K, especially in the Jammu region welcomed the scrapping of the above two Articles, the Kashmir Valley is opposed to the same. The Valley considers that the conditions imposed on them inhumane and undemocratic. The Kashmiris also fear that this move will alter the demographic atmosphere of the Muslim majority region by permitting non-Kashmiris to buy land there.

Developments within J&K have also undermined the already prevailing tensions with Pakistan leading to cold diplomatic relations. Outside the region, many have voiced the restoration of normalcy to J&K.

In perspective
While the people of Kashmir Valley consider the shut down as undemocratic, unconstitutional and inhumane, the administration considers it essential to maintain order. The State has to find a means to maintain a balance between the two – order and democracy.

Second, developments since August 2019 have also increased the differences between the regions and the communities within J&K. The administration cannot be seen as siding with one community. 

Third, India also has to balance between regional security and international reputation. At the global level, developments relating to J&K is undermining India's status as the largest democracy. Debates within and outside the UN on J&K is harming India's global rise.
 

India's Northeast: Internally displaced Brus to be finally settled in Tripura
In the news
On 17 January, the Ministry of Home Affairs moderated a historic agreement involving the Bru-Reang refugees that ended their two-decade-long crisis of statelessness. The Union Home Minister, Amit Shah presided over the Governments of Tripura and Mizoram and the Mizoram Bru Displaced People's Forum, Mizoram Bru Displaced People's Coordination Committee and Mizoram Bru Indigenous Democratic Movement. The concerned state heads and the representatives have expressed their solidarity towards the pact and have ensured that the 30,000 Bru-Reang refugee community will benefit abundantly from it.
It will be a resettlement cum rehabilitation drive that has guaranteed housing, fixed deposit, monthly allowance and free ration facilities for the newly permanently settled people.

Issues at large
The Brus was an ethnically different tribal community from the Mizos in the state of Mizoram. With minor populations residing in other parts of Northeast India like Tripura and Assam. Due to intense ethnic clashes in 1997, half of the population of the community fled from Mizoram and sought refuge in the nearest state of Tripura. Presently, they are the second-largest Scheduled Tribe group in Tripura after the Tripuris. Several attempts of repatriation, since the start of the new century, has been made with not much outcome.

They are constantly ruled out in Mizoram with Mizo groups barring them from participating in elections. In 2018, the Centre and the Election Commission finally granted voting rights to the people in the Mizoram polls. The Bru refugee population in Tripura faced extreme hardships in the past twenty years, with several deaths accounted due to insufficient food supplies and savage living conditions.

In October 2019, the Centre initiated a ninth repatriation attempt of the refugees due to which they stopped food supplies and financial aids. This created an uproar, and most of them took to streets to protest against the death drive and demanded the restoration of the same. The Home Ministry finally started talks with the State governments of Tripura and Mizoram to legitimize the population and end their woes. This led to the three governments- one centre and two-state, to work together and propose a pact to settle the 30,000 refugees in the state of Tripura permanently.

In perspective
First, the quadripartite agreement between the Central Government of India and the State governments of Tripura and Mizoram along with the Bru-Reang representatives stresses not only the resettlement of the internally displaced Bru-Reangs but also provide rehabilitation of the same.

Second, it is often seen that displaced communities are treated as non-existent entities with Borderline health and life threats, the same has been seen with the Brus. Their numbers declined drastically over the two decades of their statelessness due to extremely low birth rates and high death rates. The previous eight attempts of repatriation to Mizoram have only been sparsely successful which left over 30,000 people still stranded in six refugee camps in Tripura.

Third, this rehabilitation drive will ensure each family of 1200 sq ft of land and 1.5 lakh Indian rupees to construct a house, a fixed deposit of Rs. 4 lakhs, financial aid of Rs. 5000 per month and free ration facility for the upcoming two years. This means that they can uplift themselves from the extremely degraded living conditions of the refugee camps and construct a healthy life all over again. This also means that they can claim for governmental jobs and services. They will be more inclined to lead a legal lifestyle and are expected to refrain from illegal activities to sustain a livelihood.

Finally, an agreement like this, though late, is remarkable as it not only recognizes the plight of the refugees but also provides a seamless settlement of the people into a foreign land. Such pacts are necessary humanitarian steps towards ensuring the safe and sound right to life irrespective of borders and boundaries.

Africa

Nile River Dam: Preliminary deal between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan 
In the news
Following a meeting in Washington DC, held during 13-15 January 2020, a draft deal has been agreed between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).  There was an agreement that the dam should be filled in stages during the rainy season, and the filling would be undertaken adaptively and cooperatively. They also agreed to take into consideration the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the impact of the filling on downstream reservoirs.

The meeting was attended by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Water Resources of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and, their delegations, along with the Secretary of the US Treasury and the President of the World Bank.

The dam built by Ethiopia is 80 per cent completed; it wants to start generating electricity as soon as possible. However, Egypt is concerned about its water supplies if it gets filled too fast.

The Ministers have now agreed to meet again in Washington during 28-29 January to conclude a comprehensive agreement on the filling and functioning of the GERD. They have also called for technical and legal discussions in the interim period.

Issues at large
The Nile River basin is a troubled region that has been plagued by armed conflicts, severe drought, and many other issues, however. The dam has been a source of dispute since its construction. Egypt and Ethiopia have had their disagreements with Sudan being in the middle, who initially opposed the idea of the dam but later came on board with the promises of irrigation and electricity aids. 

Construction of the current dam began in 2011 when the Arab Spring was ongoing, and Egypt was preoccupied. Although the site was identified between 1956 and 1964 until 2009 the plans for the dam were not ready. Over the years, construction was delayed due to corruption and mishandling issues. 

The project has been the source of serious regional differences between the three countries witnessing many deadlocks. Further, the perception about the dam in these countries are different; Egypt fears that the dam would aggravate the already existing water crisis in the country by cutting its share of the Nile, while Ethiopia sees the dam as a necessity to its economic development. 

In perspective
The preliminary agreement comes as a sign of relief for this troubled region, a matter of concern because the countries could be drawn into war if the matter remained unresolved. The framework also lays down clearly the operations of the dam, wherein all three countries would be allowed to make adequate provisions to utilize the resources. Thereby lowering the chances of a conflict. 

Second, energy generated by the dam be sufficient for Ethiopia producing surplus power that can be sold to the neighbouring countries, including Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti, and Eritrea.

Third, the three countries have spent nearly eight years in finding a solution to address this matter, given the current global situation of climate change and shifting weather patterns that cause severe problems. There is a need to address conflicts of this kind, as a delay in solving these issues would have a much catastrophic impact.
 

The Middle East
Tehran: Protests follow the Airplane shooting

In the news
On 8 January 2020, a Ukrainian passenger jet heading for Kyiv, crashed shortly after it took off from Tehran, killing all 176 passengers on board. On 11 January protests erupted in Tehran when Iran's regime backtracked from its previous statement of "technical failure" and admitted to shooting down the aircraft due to "human error" while also blaming "US adventurism" for the mishap. 

Anti-government protesters poured into the streets chanting "Death to the Dictator". Persistent unrest led to police reportedly firing live ammunition injuring several in Tehran, on 12 January.

Issues at large
On 3 January 2020, Iranians gathered in millions to grieve the US assassination of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani and in a display of national strength against the US. 
However, sentiments swung swiftly when Tehran attempted to wash its hands off and shift the blame, onto the US, for the Ukrainian plane crash. Distrust and rage towards the regime manifested in popular figures calling themselves "not citizens" but "captives"; in journalists resigning with public apologies for years of telling lies and misleading media. 

Earlier, in November 2019, Iran witnessed demonstrations, triggered by peaking gas-prices amid a crippling domestic economy owing to biting US sanctions. This led to a nation-wide internet shutdown followed by the killing of over 300 demonstrators (as per Amnesty International) by Iran's security forces (Tehran denies this).

In perspective
Post the killing of Qasem Soleimani, newfound national unity granted Iran's regime a rare moment of reprieve after the November 2019 protests, largest since the 1979 Iranian revolution. With stringent US sanctions, traditionally pro-regime areas are also budding with lower-income Iranian protestors, supporting the anti-government demonstrations otherwise populated by students, intellectuals and middle classes. Iranian military's "human error" has proven costly, raising criticism from still less expected regions.

Amidst videos showing two Iranian missiles attacking the Ukrainian aircraft, tributes to the crash victims by Iranian newspapers and the 15 January announcement of first arrests regarding the accidental-shooting down of the aircraft are striving in vain to offset the threat to the regime. Anger is growing. 

Iran's actions and endeavours will be scrutinized domestically and globally. As Donald Trump warned, "The world is watching" Iran.

 

Syria: Sectarian leaders have a successful meeting in Berlin
In the news
On 15 January 2020, away from politics and publicity, leading figures from Syria's most significant communities, cliques and families held a secret meeting in Berlin to overcome the sectarian schisms tearing their nation apart. It is a momentous event in the Syrian conflict, that witnessed Alawaite dignitaries (close to Assad regime), Sunni tribal chiefs (with their own militias), a Kurdish Yazidi leader, a Syrian ambassador to the UK, Christians, and Druze around the same table challenging the idea that religious and ethnic divisions are insurmountable. 

Many attendees flew in directly from Damascus, risking their lives to partake as collaborating with other communities may call for wrath of the Assad government or Islamist rebels who consider it an act of treachery. 

A pledge that no one would be held responsible for crimes committed by members of their religion, ethnicity or family was signed.

Issues at large
In November 2017, the "Code of Conduct for Syrian Coexistence" containing principles agreeable to all Syrian societies, upholding the commitment to equality for all Syrians irrespective of religion or ethnicity, was first signed by this group's founders. Since then, more leading figures have joined. 

Berlin was chosen owing to the large Syrian community in Germany as a result of the influx since the commence of the Syrian war in 2011. 

Syria is a multi-ethnic country where religion and ethnicity are intertwined but facilitates Syrian nationalism, a supra-religious and supra-ethnic political identity. In the Syrian Civil war, the ruling minority Alwaites (15 per cent of the population) backed by Iran and other Shia regimes are pitted against the Sunni majority (70 per cent), allied armed opposition and Sunni state supporters (Turkey, Persian Gulf). The conflict spiralled, hauling in Syrian ethno-religious minorities like Yazidis, Kurds (10per cent), Armenians (2 per cent), Assyrians (4 per cent), Druze, Palestinians, Mhallami, Mandeneans, Arab Christians, Turkmens (4 per cent), and Greeks. Doms, Levantine (10 per cent), Shia Ismailis (3%), orthodox Twelver Shias (2 per cent) and Circassians (1per cent ) are other Syrian minorities. The complex sectarian conflict has transformed into a proxy war.

In perspective
Assad's government has failed time and again to fulfil the long-promised economic and political reforms and appose all Syrians. 

The 15 January meeting may ensure continued societal success than the peace processes by Russia or UN as it is a social process of reconciliation. In contrast, global initiatives attempt to find political solutions for the Assad regime and opposition. The newly signed commitment will avoid violent retribution against a group while still holding persons accountable for their crimes; paving the way for post-conflict reconstruction. Despite the formation of a UN-backed constitutional committee in 2019, sluggish political talks and swelling economic distress persist. 2020 will be crucial, being the preparation year for 2021 Syrian Presidential elections.

With over 5.7 million registered Syrian refugees and over 6.2 million internally displaced, the war is a global menace and a fertile playground for regional and global powers. Creating national and regional hindrances to the otherwise promising social reconciliation initiative.

 

Latin America
Honduras: Migrant Caravans pose a regional challenge 

In the news 
About 2,000 Hondurans, many with hopes of reaching the United States, streamed towards the Guatemalan border the past week, forming a migrant caravan. Traveling by foot and hitchhiking, the group set off from the northern Honduran city of San Pedro Sula earlier in the week. 

Around 500 migrants left from San Pedro Sula, Honduras' most violent city, on 14 January 2020, and the second group of some 1,500 left on 18 January 2020.  The caravan was met with some resistance at the Guatemalan border when Honduran police fired tear gas to repel a group trying to cross the border. 

Issues at large 
The new President of Guatemala, Alejandro Giammattei, stated that his government would honor Central American migration agreements that permitted Hondurans to enter Guatemala as long as they had proper identification. Mexico also finds itself at crossroads under renewed pressure from the United States to strengthen its borders further and block the group's passage across its territory. Mr Giammattei said Mexican officials had vowed to restrict the caravan's movement following a meeting with Mexico's foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard. 

These caravans were loosely organized through social media and messaging groups. Caravans have tended to attract migrants with fewer resources, those with not enough money to pay a smuggler. Caravans also offer a greater level of security than travelling alone or in small groups. 

Hondurans make up the majority of the migrants from Central America's Northern Triangle countries, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, who have been apprehended in Mexico.

According to the National Migration Institute, in the first 11 months of 2019, Mexico detained nearly 77,500 Honduran migrants and deported 58,900. 
In 2018 and 2019, the migrant caravans angered President Trump and posed a direct challenge to governments throughout the region. He compelled his regional counterparts to step up their migration enforcement efforts by freezing American aid and threatening tariffs. The Northern Triangle countries have all signed agreements with the Trump administration that require migrants who pass through one of those countries to first seek asylum there before applying in the United States. However, the Guatemala deal is the only one of the three that has been put into effect so far. In recent weeks, the American authorities have begun sending Honduran and Salvadoran asylum seekers back to Guatemala to apply for sanctuary there. In the hopes of dissuading people from seeking refuge in the United States, the Trump Administration has imposed increasingly restrictive policies, including expanding a program that returns individual migrants to Mexico while their immigration cases are carried out in American courts. 

In perspective 
San Pedro Sula is one of Central America's most violent cities. It was also the departure point for a large caravan in 2018 that prompted Trump to press governments in the region to do more to contain migration. The recent migrant caravans can lead to the further US pressuring towards the Central American nations. 

The Trump administration has been in talks with El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras over the past year to require asylum-seekers travelling through those countries to seek refuge there first. However, the US has only entered an official agreement with Guatemala, which would mean those passing through from Honduras are supposed to apply for asylum in Guatemala instead of going on to Mexico or the US. Last July, Guatemala's former President Jimmy Morales agreed with the US government to implement measures aimed at reducing the US asylum claims from migrants fleeing Honduras and El Salvador, averting Trump's threat of economic sanctions. The recent migrant activities can further pave the way for the threat of economic sanctions from the US. 

 


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The Putin-Xi Summit
Trade, Technology, Security, and Pipeline
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War:
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

King Charles's US Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis 

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey  & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories
November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies
February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?
February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta