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CWA # 2067, 17 April 2026
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)
Conflicts in Africa

  Anu Maria Joseph

Conflict Weekly #327, 17 April 2026, Vol 7, No. 14

The first quarter of 2026 witnessed several major developments in Africa. The war in Sudan has crossed three years, South Sudan is on the brink of another civil war, and conflict continues in eastern DR Congo despite a peace deal. Besides these three developments, the security crisis in Nigeria has worsened, tensions and instances of violence are simmering in Ethiopia's Tigray region, and the military in Madagascar has overturned the hopes of the October Gen Z protests.

1. Three years of civil war in Sudan
This week, the civil war in Sudan crossed three years. It started as a power struggle between two military factions: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Currently, the war is centred on the Darfur and Kordofan regions. The SAF controls Khartoum and eastern states, and the RSF controls Darfur and parts of greater Kordofan. Drone strikes have become very common, killing dozens at a time. The UN human rights chief, Volker Turk, said that drone attacks killed 200 civilians within eight days in mid-March. An abundant weapon supply has given warring sides less incentive to commit to or comply with regional and international peace efforts, and left limited bargaining grounds for negotiation. 

In February, a UN fact-finding mission in its report accused the RSF of carrying out mass killings in el-Fasher in October 2025, pointing to a genocide. The international genocide calls in Sudan came after three years. Besides the call and sanctions, international actors and bodies have been unable to prevent the continuing human rights atrocities.

Meanwhile, since February, tensions have increased between Chad and Sudan along the border town of Tine following a series of violent clashes between SAF and RSF-linked militias. In February, the RSF gained control of the Sudan's side of Tine town, which is separated from Chad's Tine by a narrow stream. Two major clashes in the region have killed over 30 people. Ethnic tensions are common in the border towns. The Sudanese non-Arab Zaghawas, the majority in Tine, support the SAF and have been a major target of the RSF atrocities. Additionally, RSF pursues the rival ethnic factions in the border towns to clash. In response, Chad has closed the borders and ordered the military to retaliate against any further strikes. The Sudan-Chad border town of Tine is increasingly becoming a hotspot of violence and a symbol of the regional spillover of the Sudanese civil war. 

2. South Sudan on the brink of another civil war
In March, 160 people were killed in South Sudan's Abiemnom county. The village's administration blamed the White Army, a militia allied to opposition leader Reik Machar and his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) party. During the same week, in the Ruweng region, 178 people were killed by an alleged attack by the SPLA-IO. Throughout the quarter, the UNMISS has repeatedly warned of the risk of a return to full-scale war in South Sudan.  

The ongoing tensions and clashes are linked to the power struggle between SPLM leader Reik Machar and South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, which triggered a six-year civil war in 2013, which ended with a power-sharing agreement in 2018. The renewed tensions are linked to the arrest of Machar in September 2025 under the charges of murder, treason and human rights atrocities. There were a series of clashes since January 2026 after President Kiir restricted humanitarian access exclusively to the SPLA-IO-held region in Jonglei. President Kiir's government accuses Machar and his party of plotting a coup. Intense violence has resumed across the country, rather than isolated skirmishes. This quarter's developments suggest that violence is likely to intensify alongside its geographic and demographic spread, with fears of another civil war. 

3. Continuing conflict in eastern DR Congo despite a peace deal
This quarter, the conflict in eastern DR Congo saw a lull in violence. However, the conflict is far from ending, and the US-led peace deal is unlikely to materialise. Despite the peace deal, M23 controls the regional capitals of North Kivu and South Kivu, Goma and Bukavu. Although violence has significantly come down, an M23 drone strike in March killed three people, including a French UNICEF employee. Besides, Congo accuses drones belonging to Rwandan forces and their allies of repeatedly violating Congolese airspace and violating the US peace deal. 

In March, the US imposed sanctions on Rwanda's military for providing "direct operational support" to M23 rebels. However, Rwanda called the sanctions "unjust." The US sanctions and subsequent tensions raised risks to the potential sustainability of the peace deal and resumption of violence. Besides, the US-led peace deal is being criticised for many reasons. First, the deal lacked inclusivity; M23, the major actor in the conflict, was not a signatory to the agreement. Second, the deal displayed a transactional character when Trump involved the US's mineral interests in the bargaining and deviated from a genuine interest in resolving the conflict. Third, the deal discusses an end to hostilities, disarmament and disengagement of the rebel groups, and a regional economic integration. However, the deal does not address the decades-long root causes of the complex conflict in eastern DRC. Ultimately, the deal reflected a US geopolitical manoeuvre that served Trump's global peace pursuits. Finally, seven months into the signing, the deal could not materialise any of its provisions on the ground and ended up being a peace deal without peace.

4. Worsening security crisis in Nigeria
In Nigeria, Boko Haram, ISWAP and other armed groups, including bandits, have carried out more than 15 major attacks this quarter, including the 4 January attack that killed 120 people in Kwara state. Attacks are being recorded in the states of Borno, Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger, Katsina, Kwara and Sokoto. It implies that the increase is not only in number but also in geographic spread. 

In the backdrop of an increasing security crisis, Nigeria has expanded security cooperation with the US after Trump accused the Nigerian government of failing to protect Christians. The US-Nigeria military cooperation began with the US military strikes against IS-linked groups in Nigeria's Sokoto state in December 2025, in collaboration with the Nigerian government. In February, 100 US military troops arrived in Maiduguri to provide intelligence, military equipment and technical and operational coordination. However, so far, the US-Nigeria security partnership has been unable to control the increasing number of attacks. While the Nigerian government welcomes US support, there is growing domestic concern about external influence on Nigeria's internal security decisions and US economic and geopolitical interests in the region. 

5. Political instability in Madagascar
In March, Madagascar's military leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, dissolved the government and dismissed the prime minister and the cabinet. Randrianirina appointed the country's anti-corruption chief, Mamitiana Rajaonarison, as the new Prime Minister. Following the October 2025 Gen Z protests that led to the fall of President Andry Rajoelina and a military takeover, Madagascar faces an unstable political transition. The dismissal and reappointment pointed to internal tensions within the transitional government. Many fear that with the absence of pressure from the Gen Z movement, which catalysed the fall of Rajoelina's government, the military leadership is likely to consolidate its power. 

To conclude: Africa in the first quarter (January-March 2026)
While much global attention has shifted to the conflict in the Middle East and its global impact, Africa this quarter saw the continuation of two major violent conflicts: civil war in Sudan and conflict in eastern DRC. Another major conflict is simmering in South Sudan. Nigeria’s security crisis has doubled and raises the threat of a regional spill over towards Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and other West African countries. While Madagascar struggles with political uncertainty, conflicts in Tigray and Somaliland have not witnessed any positive developments. 

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Previous Africa Comments

April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph | Ms Anu Maria Joseph was a NIAS Project Associate and served as Assistant Editor, Conflict Weekly.

Three Years of War in Sudan
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji | Dr S Shaji is an Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)